Kiifb NL August2020 V3 8.1
Kiifb NL August2020 V3 8.1
Kiifb NL August2020 V3 8.1
Total Outlay
Amount
Type of Project Nos.
(Rs. in Cr.)
Infrastructure 729 37,031.21
Kerala is still bravely battling its way through the covid war field. Understandably, there is a sense of
fatigue that has crept in. Nevertheless, we are holding well so far. But there is still so much uncertainty
about the future. The big question that troubles us is – when do we say that the pandemic has peaked
and that moving on one can expect a certain respite?
Many leading consultancy firms in the world have tried to analyse the covid impact on infrastructure
projects. Broadly we can identify five categories of challenges for companies in general – and that
holds true for infrastructure companies working in Kerala on KIIFB projects as well. The first pertains
to workforce - namely catering to the sustenance and welfare of workforce and their families residing
in pandemic affected areas. Kerala depends heavily on workers from outside the state who are mostly
people from the states north of India or from the north east. Thousands of these workers have returned
to their homes but are now looking for opportune time to return to Kerala. In some instances, in recent
times, workers have come back only to find themselves in the thick of a covid cluster or a containment
zone – where they have to necessarily undergo the prescribed quarantine. The second challenge relates
to the operations of the companies themselves. This manifests in reduced resilience in performance,
infrastructure and services needed. This also involves concerns related to project financing. Will the
projects under development be still viable and bankable given the sudden rupture witnessed in the
economic and social environment? Will the assets under construction or proposed to be taken up
generate enough revenue to cover the costs and risk of the investments given the possible changes in
user behaviour, demand patterns and constraints set on accessibility to the assets? Will Governments,
most of them facing considerable financial projects, revise their spending plans on new infrastructure
construction? The third category relates to challenges in ensuring the supply chain. The supply chain
will have to be revisited and new supply lines will have to be identified considering the nature of the
impact that the lockdown has on their specific set of customers. A location like (say) a quarry to supply
granite may suddenly become unavailable or inaccessible. There might sometimes be severe choking up
of the production from supply sources. The fourth category identified relates to travel. Movement across
rail, air and roads have been considerably impacted. Business and leisure related movements have been
severely impacted. Bringing material to the site from other places in Kerala and many a time from different
parts of the country poses a huge challenge to infrastructure companies. International travel is yet to
resume, and all modes domestic transport are still showing signs of very tardy recovery. While online
meetings and other digital means would provide some answer, these are no substitute to a face to face
meeting – especially given the need to develop trust and personal relations between the infrastructure
company and its clients. The fifth category is the increase in difficulty in compliance with regulations.
For instance, obtaining a construction permit from the concerned local body or a clearance on the Coastal
Regulations from the designated agency or even a simple thing like obtaining a road cutting permit will
be so difficult and a herculean task with most of the staff engaged in pandemic fighting in the districts.
Naturally, KIIFB must work in this environment – there is no escape from that reality. The KIIF Board
has already approved 730 projects of across 22 diverse sectors for a total of Rs. 57,031.21 crore. Prior to
the outbreak of the covid pandemic, it was our expectation in KIIFB that Kerala would be able to have the
happiness of seeing the launch of at least 250 infrastructure projects financed through KIIFB, both big
and small. That looks unlikely now. We are still in the process of estimating the number of projects in the
changed scenario. With luck and some respite from the covid lockdown restrictions, we hope to catch up
on lost time to the extent possible with the concerted efforts, goodwill and hard work of the participating
Government Departments, Special Purpose Vehicles and their contractors.
More in the next edition. Happy reading….
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Among other art forms, Malayalam films also play a significant role in weaving the cultural fabric of the state.
Kerala is the most film literate state in the country. The Malayalam film industry has registered robust growth
in recent years, when the country is witnessing more than 14% annual growth in entertainment industry. This
calls for massive investment in infrastructure in the film industry. In this direction, KIIFB has approved the
following project. Revenue generated from the project will be utilised by the SPV Kerala State Film Development
Corporation (KSFDC) to repay the loan.
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For all the current outstanding corporate bonds of 10+ year tenor, we also looked at the current yields for AA
and AAA bonds against years to maturity.
In July, RBI published the Financial Stability Report. Here we summarize the key takeaways from the report
regarding risks and resilience in the financial system.
1. Macro Financial Risks: There is an unprecedented uncertainty about global growth, though in India the
financial markets have broadly stabilized in response to unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus.
Subdued bank credit shows clear signs of risk aversion. Adequate levels of foreign exchange reserves
provide a buffer. The pandemic has the potential to amplify financial vulnerabilities, including corporate
and household debt burdens in the case of severe economic contraction.
2. Financial Institutions - Soundness and Resilience: Bank credit growth moderated across constituent bank
groups during the second half of 2019-20. The profitability ratios of Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs)
have declined in the second half of FY 2019-20 and the outlook is weighed down by the moratorium’s
implications for loan classification.
• Macro-stress tests for credit risk indicate that under the baseline scenario, SCBs’ gross nonperforming
assets (GNPA) ratio may increase from 8.5 per cent in March 2020 to 12.5 per cent (14.7 per cent in
a very severe stress scenario) by March 2021. Further, in the case of public sector banks, the GNPA
ratio of 11.3 per cent as of March 2020 might increase to 15.2 per cent by March 2021 in the baseline
scenario. Besides, in the case of private sector banks and foreign banks, the GNPA ratio may surge
from 4.2 per cent and 2.3 per cent in March 2020 to 7.3 per cent and 3.9 per cent, respectively in
March 2021.
• The system-level1 capital to risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) may fall from 14.6 per cent in March
2020 to 13.3 per cent (11.8 per cent in a very severe stress scenario) by March 2021. Stress test results
indicate that, five banks may fail to meet the minimum capital level by March 2021 in a very severe
stress scenario.
• The common equity Tier I (CET 1) capital ratio of SCBs may decline from 11.7 per cent in March 2020
to 10.7 per cent under the baseline scenario and to 9.4 per cent under the very severe stress scenario
in March 2021. Under these conditions, three banks may fail to meet the minimum regulatory CET
1 capital ratio of 5.5 per cent by March 2021
• For NBFC sector, system wide stress tests (increase in GNPA by 1 SD,2SD and 3SD)indicate that
the sector’s CRAR would decline from 19.4 per cent to 17.2 per cent in the first scenario, to 16.4 per
cent in the second scenario and to 15.2 per cent in the third scenario. under the above-mentioned
three scenarios, 11.2 per cent, 14.0 per cent and 19.5 per cent of the companies would not be able to
comply with the minimum regulatory capital requirements of 15 per cent.
• The impact of the moratorium on private NBFCs/HFCs can be substantial, with proportion of assets
under the moratorium for NBFCs averaged between 39-65 per cent based on underlying assets with
approximately 50 per cent of the aggregate assets under moratorium as on end April 2020.
pravasi.ksfe.com
pravasi@ksfe.com KIIFB Deposit bond subscribed INR 155.8 Cr
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12 KERALA
PrintedINFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
and Published on 01/08/2020, byFUND BOARD
the Chief - DEFINING
Executive THEKIIFB,
Officer for FUTUREFelicity Square, 2nd Floor, Opp. AG’s Office,
M G Road, Thiruvananthapuram 695 001 Tel: +91 471 278 0900 financeadmin@kiifb.org, www.kiifb.org