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    Moderna Inc DCF Valuation

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    Fabian
    According to a DCF valuation, Moderna's stock is undervalued. The memo estimates Moderna's intrinsic value at $226.8 per share compared to its market price of $153.31 as of February 8, 2022, representing upside potential of 48%. Based on projections of revenue, costs, taxes, and cash flows through 2036, and a WACC of 10% and terminal growth rate of 3%, the DCF estimates Moderna's enterprise value at $107.3 billion and equity value at $107.3 billion. The memo recommends buying Moderna's stock.

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    Moderna Inc DCF Valuation

    Uploaded by

    Fabian
    122 views4 pages
    According to a DCF valuation, Moderna's stock is undervalued. The memo estimates Moderna's intrinsic value at $226.8 per share compared to its market price of $153.31 as of February 8, 2022, representing upside potential of 48%. Based on projections of revenue, costs, taxes, and cash flows through 2036, and a WACC of 10% and terminal growth rate of 3%, the DCF estimates Moderna's enterprise value at $107.3 billion and equity value at $107.3 billion. The memo recommends buying Moderna's stock.

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    According to a DCF valuation, Moderna's stock is undervalued. The memo estimates Moderna's intrinsic value at $226.8 per share compared to its market price of $153.31 as of February 8, 2022, representing upside potential of 48%. Based on projections of revenue, costs, taxes, and cash flows through 2036, and a WACC of 10% and terminal growth rate of 3%, the DCF estimates Moderna's enterprise value at $107.3 billion and equity value at $107.3 billion. The memo recommends buying Moderna's stock.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    122 views4 pages

    Moderna Inc DCF Valuation

    Uploaded by

    Fabian
    According to a DCF valuation, Moderna's stock is undervalued. The memo estimates Moderna's intrinsic value at $226.8 per share compared to its market price of $153.31 as of February 8, 2022, representing upside potential of 48%. Based on projections of revenue, costs, taxes, and cash flows through 2036, and a WACC of 10% and terminal growth rate of 3%, the DCF estimates Moderna's enterprise value at $107.3 billion and equity value at $107.3 billion. The memo recommends buying Moderna's stock.

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    You are on page 1of 4

    FBE 529 Professor Abrams Spring 2022

    Moderna Inc. (MRNA) DCF Valuation (Individual Homework)


    Fabian Flatz

    This Memo summarizes the intrinsic value of Moderna Inc. (MRNA) compared to the market price as of February 8 th. According to my DCF valuation MRNA
    is undervalued:

    As per February 8th 2022 MRNA’s common stock is trading at $153.31. However, according to my DCF valuation the intrinsic value of the stock is $226.8.
    This represents an upside potential of 48%.

    Consequently, I recommend buying the stock.

    In the Appendix I will provide further details on my DCF.

    Kind regards,

    Fabian Flatz
    FBE 529 Professor Abrams Spring 2022

    (in millions)
      period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
      2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E 2034E 2035E 2036E
    Revenue 1 2 1 15, 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2
    8,700 1,700 9,650 600 4,450 3,400 4,350 4,100 5,050 5,600 7,550 9,200 9,650 0,000 0,450
    Cost of Goods Sold (ex ( ( ( (2, ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (
    D&A) 2,805) 3,255) 2,948) 340) 1,879) 1,742) 1,866) 1,551) 1,656) 1,716) 1,931) 1,920) 1,965) 2,000) 2,045)
    Depreciation &
    Amortization (35) (104) (94) (75) (69) (68) (73) (72) (81) (84) (95) (109) (112) (114) (123)
    1 1 1 13, 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
    Gross Profit 5,860 8,341 6,608 185 2,502 1,590 2,411 2,477 3,313 3,800 5,525 7,171 7,573 7,886 8,282
    ( ( ( (1, ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (
    R&D 1,870) 2,170) 1,965) 560) 1,301) 1,206) 1,292) 1,269) 1,204) 1,248) 1,404) 1,536) 1,376) 1,400) 1,432)
    ( ( (2, ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (
    SG&A (748) 3,255) 2,948) 340) 2,168) 2,010) 2,153) 2,115) 1,806) 1,872) 2,106) 2,304) 1,965) 2,000) 2,045)
    1 1 1 9, 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
    EBIT 3,242 2,916 1,696 285 9,034 8,374 8,967 9,093 0,303 0,680 2,015 3,331 4,232 4,486 4,806
     
    Free Cash Flow  
    projections:
    1 1 1 9, 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
    EBIT 3,242 2,916 1,696 285 9,034 8,374 8,967 9,093 0,303 0,680 2,015 3,331 4,232 4,486 4,806
    ( ( ( (2, ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (
    Taxes on EBIT 1,195) 3,358) 3,041) 414) 2,349) 2,177) 2,332) 2,364) 2,679) 2,777) 3,124) 3,466) 3,700) 3,766) 3,850)
    1 6, 1 1 1
    NOPAT 2,047 9,558 8,655 871 6,685 6,197 6,636 6,729 7,624 7,903 8,891 9,865 0,532 0,720 0,956
    Add: Depreciation &
    Amortization 35 104 94 75 69 68 73 72 81 84 95 109 112 114 123

    Less: Capex (70) (130) (118) (94) (87) (80) (86) (85) (90) (94) (105) (115) (118) (120) (123)
    Less: Investment in (
    NWC 2,145) (22) (20) (16) (14) (13) (14) (14) (15) (16) (18) (19) (20) (20) (20)
    Add: Increase in
    Unearned Revenue 4,430 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    (LT)
    1 6, 1 1 1
    Free Cash Flow 4,297 9,510 8,612 837 6,653 6,171 6,609 6,702 7,600 7,878 8,863 9,840 0,507 0,694 0,936 11,264
      5,
    PV of FCF 8,645 7,117 136 4,544 3,832 3,730 3,439 3,546 3,341 3,417 3,449 3,348 3,098 2,880
    Terminal Value
    FBE 529 Professor Abrams Spring 2022

    160,913
    59,522.
    PV of FCF 1
    38,521.
    PV of Terminal Value 3
    9,798.
    Excess cash 0
    107,841.
    Enterprise value 4
    (583.0
    Less: Debt )
    107,258.
    Equity value 4
    47
    Number of shares 3
    226.
    Intrinsic value per share 8

    WACC 10%
    terminal growth rate 3%

    (SELECTED) BALANCE SHEET ITEMS 2020A


    5,550.
    Cash and equivalents 0
    3,356.
    Short Term Investments 0
    6,442.
    Long Term Investments 0

    Curr. Port. Of Leases 240


    FBE 529 Professor Abrams Spring 2022

    Long Term Leases 343

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