Calculations of OGDCL by Safdar, Safi Ullah, Muhamad Amin
Calculations of OGDCL by Safdar, Safi Ullah, Muhamad Amin
Calculations of OGDCL by Safdar, Safi Ullah, Muhamad Amin
Contents
Assumptions
Growth Calculation
Income Statement
Shareholder's Equity
Balance Sheet Items
BS
D&A Schedule
DDM
FCF Valuation
Beta Calculation
CFS
Ratio Analysis
Enterprice Value multiple
OGDCL
Assumptions
Sales
Tax
Royalty
Reserves
Unappropriated profit
Long-term Deposits
Long-term Borrowing
Same
Same
It is assumed as zero
It is assumed as zero
Page 1
IS
Historical Forecasted
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Page 2
IS
Growth rate 0.06
(1+g) 1.06
2025 Tax rate Average
Percentage of sales schedule
155,051,273
Page 3
IS
Average
-11%
-28%
-1%
-40%
60%
10%
-7%
-2%
-1%
-3%
2%
60%
-18%
41%
Page 4
Shareholders' Equity FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E
Unappropriated profit 494,180,516 588,591,228 650,285,112 707,810,761 772,571,240.64
Total Shares issued 4,300,928 4,300,928 4,300,928 4,300,928 4,300,928
Earnings Per Share 18.31 27.53 23.47 21.28 24.34
Total Dividends Per Year 47,310,208 46,234,976 26,880,800 28,601,171 39,938,085
Dividend Per Share 11 10.75 6.25 6.65 9.29
Dividend Payout Ratio 60% 39% 27% 31% 38%
FY23E FY24E FY25E
841,217,349.06 913,982,223.98 991,112,991.40
4,300,928 4,300,928 4,300,928
25.80 27.35 28.99
42,334,370 44,874,432 47,566,898
9.84 10.43 11.06
38% 38% 38%
Working Capital Schedule 2018 2019
Current assets
Trade debt or Receivables 163,691,820 231,941,980
Net Sales 205,335,000 261,481,188
Days receivable 291 days 324 days
Stock in trade or inventory 346,829 446,645
COGS 83,855,257 94,419,625
Inventory turnover days 2 days 2 days
Current liabilities
Trade Payables 1,208,256 953,478
COGS 16,190,496 12,499,324
Days payable 27 days 28 days
CURRENT LIABILITIES
Trade Payables 1,208,256 953,478 670,392
Other Payables 35,497,658 45,783,069 62,918,760
Unpaid dividend 18,169,267 22,951,943 25,557,624
Unclaimed dividend 319,706 213,785 210,970
55,194,887 69,902,275 89,357,746
TOTAL LIABILITIES 115,920,775 148,843,362 178,409,660
666,477,197 795,058,357 888,973,636
CURRENT ASSETS
Stores, spare parts and loose tools 17,984,525 18,751,790 18,726,550
Stock in trade or inventory 346,829 446,645 472,505
Trade debts or reveivables 163,691,820 231,941,980 307,563,536
Loans and advances 17,300,931 9,669,299 13,322,160
Deposits and short term prepayments 1,339,343 1,329,883 1,313,370
Other receivables 452,987 7,762,428 575,305
Income tax - advance 37,278,361 20,027,510 37,118,984
Current portion of long term investments 95,957,967 113,770,186 95,115,426
Current portion of lease receivables 10,469,597 16,360,220
Other financial assets 67,834,662 74,726,436 47,661,241
Cash and bank balances 3,670,480 20,569,709 16,842,305
405,857,905 509,465,463 555,071,602
666,477,197 795,058,357 888,973,636
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
27,667,937 0 0 0 0
28,010,167 0 0 0 0
28,992,057 0 0 0 0
84,670,161 0 0 0 0
45,525,871
8,783,849
861,430
37,259,605
305,324,159
19,169,273
404,339 382052.69917952 404975.8611303 429274.412798113 455030.877566
358,821,853 285,470,639 302598877.39293 320754810.0365 340000098.63869
15,916,922
1,262,865
822,149
45,751,659
122,465,116
22,253,115
56,358,320
7,444,044
650,669,655
955,993,814
D & A Schedule 2018 2019
Capital Expenditure
Net Sales 205,335,000 261,481,188
Capital Expenditures 17,491,305 172,276
Capital Expenditures as % of Net Sales 8.52% 0.07%
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
224253372.48
2011267.37303
1%
194233163.98
28008941.1278
2011267.37303
224253372.48
268945522.622
28008941.1278
0.10414354868
Year Dividend per Share EPS Payout Ratio
2021 6.65 21.28 31%
2020 6.25 23.47 27% Year
2019 10.75 27.53 39% Profit for the year
2018 11 18.31 60% Outstanding Shares
2017 6.25 14.83 42% D/S
2016 5.2 13.94 37% Terminal value
2015 6.75 20.29 33% Discount factor
2014 9.75 28.81 34% Intrinsic Value Per Share
2013 8.5 21.22 40%
2012 7.5 22.53 33%
2011 5.5 14.77 37%
2010 6 13.76 44%
Average 7.50833333333333 20.06167 38%
Assumption
avg. outstandings shares will remain same
4,300,928
Growth
6%
Forecasted
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
91,534,424.00 104,698,564.49 110,980,478.36 117,639,307.06 124,697,665.49
4,300,928
6.65 9.29 9.84 10.43 11.06
128.36
1 0.87 0.75 0.66 0.57
108.32
Rfr 11.49%
Market return 14.55%
market permium 3.06%
Beta 1.19
R 15.13%
11.72 growth 0.06
FCF VALUATION 2018 2019 2020
EBIT 101,201,385 150,432,990 115,092,353
Taxation -33,890,466 -58,213,625 -43,423,735
NOPAT 67,310,919 92,219,365 71,668,618
Add
D&A 421,946 591,595 683,888
Less
Change in WC
Change in F(inv)
FCFF
Periods
Present Value of FCF
555,758,611.17
4300928
129.22
TM
673,612,152
383,358,580.29
OGDCL KSE100
Date Price Return Date Price Return
22-Feb 89.51 3% 22-Feb 45,909.65 1%
22-Jan 87 1% 22-Jan 45,374.68 2%
21-Dec 86.2 2% 21-Dec 44,596.07 -1%
21-Nov 84.9 -1% 21-Nov 45,072.38 -2%
21-Oct 85.55 2% 21-Oct 46,218.93 3%
21-Sep 83.8 -10% 21-Sep 44,899.60 -5%
21-Aug 92.86 -1% 21-Aug 47,419.74 1%
21-Jul 93.39 -2% 21-Jul 47,055.29 -1%
21-Jun 95.03 -3% 21-Jun 47,356.02 -1%
21-May 97.49 7% 21-May 47,896.34 8%
21-Apr 91.51 -10% 21-Apr 44,262.35 -1%
21-Mar 101.61 -3% 21-Mar 44,587.85 -3%
21-Feb 104.72 -2% 21-Feb 45,865.02 -1%
21-Jan 106.97 3% 21-Jan 46,385.54 6%
20-Dec 103.77 4% 20-Dec 43,755.38 7%
20-Nov 99.39 6% 20-Nov 41,068.82 3%
20-Oct 93.43 -10% 20-Oct 39,888.00 -2%
20-Sep 103.6 -10% 20-Sep 40,571.48 -1%
20-Aug 114.75 0% 20-Aug 41,110.93 5%
20-Jul 114.55 5% 20-Jul 39,258.44 14%
20-Jun 109 -5% 20-Jun 34,421.92 1%
20-May 114.6 9% 20-May 33,931.23 -1%
20-Apr 105.36 37% 20-Apr 34,111.64 17%
20-Mar 76.99 -35% 20-Mar 29,231.63 -23%
20-Feb 117.62 -15% 20-Feb 37,983.62 -9%
20-Jan 137.98 -3% 20-Jan 41,630.94 2%
19-Dec 142.32 8% 19-Dec 40,735.08 4%
19-Nov 132.03 3% 19-Nov 39,287.65 15%
19-Oct 128.77 5% 19-Oct 34,203.68 7%
19-Sep 123.03 18% 19-Sep 32,078.85 8%
19-Aug 104.56 -17% 19-Aug 29,672.12 -7%
19-Jul 126.66 -4% 19-Jul 31,938.48 -6%
19-Jun 131.49 -4% 19-Jun 33,901.58 -6%
19-May 136.74 -3% 19-May 35,974.79 -2%
19-Apr 140.78 -5% 19-Apr 36,784.44 -5%
19-Mar 147.55 -1% 19-Mar 38,649.34 -1%
19-Feb 149.16 -1% 19-Feb 39,054.60 -4%
19-Jan 150.44 18% 19-Jan 40,799.52 10%
18-Dec 128 -13% 18-Dec 37,066.67 -8%
18-Nov 147.54 -7% 18-Nov 40,496.03 -3%
18-Oct 158.94 4% 18-Oct 41,649.36 2%
18-Sep 152.99 0% 18-Sep 40,998.59 -2%
18-Aug 152.46 1% 18-Aug 41,742.24 -2%
18-Jul 151.27 -3% 18-Jul 42,712.43 2%
18-Jun 155.62 -4% 18-Jun 41,910.90 -2%
18-May 162.44 -3% 18-May 42,846.64 -6%
18-Apr 166.73 -4% 18-Apr 45,488.86 0%
18-Mar 174.08 7% 18-Mar 45,560.30 5%
18-Feb 163.22 -1% 18-Feb 43,239.44 -2%
18-Jan 164.59 1% 18-Jan 44,049.05 9%
17-Dec 162.79 5% 17-Dec 40,471.48 1%
17-Nov 155.49 8% 17-Nov 40,010.36 1%
17-Oct 143.64 -3% 17-Oct 39,617.19 -7%
17-Sep 148.64 5% 17-Sep 42,409.27 3%
17-Aug 141.1 -10% 17-Aug 41,206.99 -10%
17-Jul 156.41 11% 17-Jul 46,010.45 -1%
17-Jun 140.69 -20% 17-Jun 46,565.29 -8%
17-May 176.83 15% 17-May 50,591.57 3%
17-Apr 154.38 4% 17-Apr 49,300.90 2%
17-Mar 148.31 -6% 17-Mar 48,155.93 -1%
17-Feb 157.47 -2% 17-Feb 48,534.23 0%
17-Jan 160.62 -3% 17-Jan 48,757.67 2%
16-Dec 165.35 17% 16-Dec 47,806.97 12%
16-Nov 141.04 0% 16-Nov 42,622.37 7%
16-Oct 140.62 0% 16-Oct 39,893.84 -2%
16-Sep 141.23 1% 16-Sep 40,541.81 2%
16-Aug 140.16 3% 16-Aug 39,809.58 1%
16-Jul 136.52 -1% 16-Jul 39,505.28 5%
16-Jun 138.07 -1% 16-Jun 37,783.54 5%
16-May 139.44 6% 16-May 36,061.56 4%
16-Apr 131.34 15% 16-Apr 34,719.29 5%
16-Mar 114.44 7% 16-Mar 33,139.00 6%
16-Feb 107.05 -2% 16-Feb 31,369.51 0%
16-Jan 109.23 -7% 16-Jan 31,298.60 -5%
15-Dec 117.34 -3% 15-Dec 32,816.31 2%
15-Nov 120.82 -12% 15-Nov 32,255.20 -6%
15-Oct 137.95 11% 15-Oct 34,261.60 6%
15-Sep 124.67 -13% 15-Sep 32,287.41 -7%
15-Aug 143.78 -12% 15-Aug 34,726.51 -3%
15-Jul 162.94 -9% 15-Jul 35,741.52 4%
15-Jun 179.24 -3% 15-Jun 34,398.86 4%
15-May 184.73 1% 15-May 33,056.79 -2%
15-Apr 182.84 1% 15-Apr 33,729.96 12%
15-Mar 181.53 -14% 15-Mar 30,233.87 -10%
15-Feb 211.15 0% 15-Feb 33,632.19 -2%
15-Jan 210.94 15-Jan 34,443.87
Beta 1.19
Statement of Changes in Equity Statement of Cash Flows
144,361,628 128,986,345
10,552,028 10,013,432
17,247,061 17,864,645
27,626,096 27,422,366
7,597,981 6,788,755
5,313,779 6,246,406
- -
-480,019 -
3007255.00 2199467.00
-44,432 -1,019,391
-18,343,450 -10,726,476
-7,917,810 -7,627,527
-8,263 -86,765
-4,148,536 2211109.00
-1,726,720 4010528.00
-7,037 -5,857
-58,878 -25,032
503367.00 -93,283
- 691.00
-6,062,575 -6,288,982
26482.00 27956.00
### 179898387.00
-504,609 -377,396
-25,860 68166.00
-75,621,556 -51,258,317
16513.00 50505.00
-4,199,592 -3,157,456
9085108.00 -334,355
### 124889534.00
-25,979,217 -16,915,850
-3,763,371 -3,343,338
84500.00 -77,894
-143,978 -129,266
-9,294,706 -9,240,211
-51,524,836 -54,879,431
-90,621,608 -84,585,990
15566353.00 40303544.00
-33,470,292 -19,153,546
11116349.00 6201210.00
2112046.00 2611615.00
163622.00 1805012.00
10170987.00 1833441.00
-11,833,441 -
75195.00 45085.00
-21,665,534 -6,657,183
-26,428,401 -30,423,780
-26,428,401 -30,423,780
-32,527,582 3222581.00
95049153.00 64248291.00
1726720.00 -4,010,528
64248291.00 63460344.00
OGDCL
RATIO ANALYSIS
Growth Ratios 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Sales Growth 19% 27% -11% 3% 6%
Income Growth 23% 50% -15% -9% 14%
Profitability Ratios 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Profit Margin 59% 64% 59% 58% 60%
Return on Assets 0.11813802 0.148902 0.1135443 0.095748
Return on Equity 0.16187343 0.2186717 0.16295072 0.134798 0.141448
Dividend Payout Ratio 0.60076461 0.3904831 0.2662974 0.3125 0.381458
Liquidity Ratios
Current Ratio 7.35317938 7.288253 6.21179055 6.399215
Quick Ratio 7.34689566 7.2818634 6.20650276 6.395238
Activity Ratios 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Inventory Turnover 217.7 298.4 219.6 208.8 266.3
2023 2024 2025
6% 6% 6%
6% 6% 6%
2023 2024 2025
60% 60% 60%