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Flexible Approach

The document discusses how Solaria believes the investment environment has changed and will require a more flexible approach between equity and credit markets going forward. It estimates that the S&P 500 is currently priced to deliver 8-9% long-term returns based on its internal models. Fixed income yields now also appear competitive with equities. Higher inflation and lower corporate profits are expected to lead to higher interest rates and more subdued equity returns compared to the past. Solaria believes this environment favors opportunistic investments in credit and equities that do not rely solely on broader market performance.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
163 views

Flexible Approach

The document discusses how Solaria believes the investment environment has changed and will require a more flexible approach between equity and credit markets going forward. It estimates that the S&P 500 is currently priced to deliver 8-9% long-term returns based on its internal models. Fixed income yields now also appear competitive with equities. Higher inflation and lower corporate profits are expected to lead to higher interest rates and more subdued equity returns compared to the past. Solaria believes this environment favors opportunistic investments in credit and equities that do not rely solely on broader market performance.

Uploaded by

jsheth
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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WE BELIEVE A FLEXIBLE APPROACH IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER

At Solaria, we believe that the market we are entering will look markedly different from what we have experienced over the last decade. Fixed
income, in our opinion, is once again expected to be a competitive asset class. Equities, generally, also seem likely to experience more subdued
returns going forward. In this new environment, we believe that those who invest “opportunistically” between equity and credit are best
positioned to succeed.

Using the S&P 500, our proxy for broader equity markets, we estimate that stocks are currently priced to deliver 8% - 9% long-term returns1.
Our analysis (see Appendix) compares ex ante expected returns to ex post realized returns of the S&P 500 on a rolling 5-, 10- and 30-year basis.
At current levels, we would characterize the expected return from equities as “fair.” Notably, based on our analysis, equity risk premiums
declined slightly since Q4 2021. Expected long-term equity returns are up approximately 139 bps, lagging the 172 bps increase in 30-year
Treasury yields2.

Unlike recent years, we believe the absolute returns available in fixed income markets today are competitive with equities. Bloomberg shows
more than 9,000 US dollar denominated bonds and loans currently yielding over 8%3. While some of these issuers may undergo restructurings,
we believe that most of these instruments are “money good” – the enterprise value, even in stressed scenarios, meaningfully exceeds the face
value of the debt. As such, there are opportunities today to earn equity-like returns in the credit market with likely lower risk.

Benchmark interest rates are likely to remain at higher levels going forward. Inflation readings have trended lower recently, but we believe that
several drivers of inflation may prove to be structural in nature. Central banks seem rightfully focused on tight labor markets (COVID, shifting
demographics) and the re-configuration of global supply chains (de-globalization, near-shoring, “just in case” inventory management).

At the same time, the primary drivers of aggregate corporate profits (housing, business investment, consumer spending, fiscal spending, and
trade balances) are all pointing lower4. Management commentaries across a wide range of industries support this view of revenue and margin
pressures.

Higher “normal” inflation rates will, in our view, lead to monetary and fiscal authorities acting more restrained than they have in the past. It
seems unlikely that quantitative easing, negative real interest rates and large fiscal stimulus programs will be used to support financial markets
to the same extent as they were previously, given worries over future price surges.

In our mind, the combination of higher inflation rates, lower corporate profits, and reduced fiscal and monetary flexibility means higher
interest rates. For fixed income, this implies higher future returns. On the equity side, this implies more subdued returns than in the past as the
tailwind from multiple expansion seems unlikely to recur. This backdrop leads us to seek out credit investments with compelling absolute
expected returns and opportunistic equity investments that don’t require the broader market to drive returns.

While this report discusses markets from a top-down perspective, Solaria’s investment approach remains bottoms-up. We intend to build our
portfolio one-by-one with credit and equity opportunities where we can capitalize on non-market return drivers. Please see our paper
“Opportunistic Investing: What Does That Really Mean? Putting On Our CEO Hat” for a deeper discussion of Solaria’s investing approach.

Jay M. Sheth
Founder and CIOSolaria Management LP

APPENDIX

1
Solaria Management’s estimated average annualized return for the S&P 500 over 30 years

2
Based on Solaria Management’s estimated change in 30-year returns for the S&P 500 and the observed change in 30-year US Treasury yields from 12/31/2021 and 1/30/2023

3
Bloomberg SRCH function as of 1/30/2023

4
See https://www.levyforecast.com/assets/Profits.pdf for a broader discussion of the macro drivers of corporate profits

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION 1


Solaria uses a model internally to estimate forward equity returns for the S&P 500. Forecast returns are estimated based on the starting
price level and dividend yield of the S&P 500, a historical average earnings growth rate for the index of 7.0% - 7.5% and an ending price-
to-earnings multiple of 16x – 18x (see end note (i) below).

Thinking about it another way, the S&P 500 is currently trading at 17.5x – 18.5x consensus earnings. If we assume no contribution from
multiple expansion (or contraction), then the total return of the S&P 500 going forward comes from earnings growth plus the dividend
yield, or approximately 8% - 9%.

The charts below show the actual (blue) and forecast (orange) forward returns for the S&P 500 on a rolling 5-, 10- and 30-year forward
basis5. The large divergences between actual and forecast returns occur when periods end at very high (bubble) or very low
(depression) multiples. For example, the 5-year S&P 500 forward return chart in 1994 – 1995 shows a large spread between actual and
forecast returns because the period ended with the 1999 – 2000 Tech Bubble.

S&P 500 5-Year Forward Forecast vs. Actual Returns

Source: Bloomberg, Solaria Management

5
The forecast forward returns presented in this document have been prepared by Solaria based on a proprietary model that contains projections developed by Solaria. In general, results such as those set forth in this
document have certain inherent limitations. Simulated results do not represent actual results and accordingly, the forecast forward returns may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain
factors. Simulated parameters are subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. There are frequently sharp differences between projections and actual results. No representation is being
made that the portfolio managed by Solaria would achieve profits or losses similar to those set forth herein.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION 2


S&P 500 10-Year Forward Forecast vs. Actual Returns

Source: Bloomberg, Solaria Management

S&P 500 30-Year Forward Forecast vs. Actual Returns

Source: Bloomberg, Solaria Management

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION 3


END NOTE

(i) The S&P 500 Index is comprised of a representative sample of 500 large-cap companies. The index is an unmanaged, float weighted index with each stock's weight in the index in proportion to its float, as
determined by Standard & Poor's. The index is one of the most widely used benchmarks of U.S. equity performance. References to the S&P 500 Index are only included for illustrative purposes to show the general
trends in the markets during the periods indicated and are not intended to imply that any investment in a portfolio managed by Solaria will be comparable to the S&P 500 Index either in composition or risk. It is not
possible to invest directly in an index. Comparisons to the S&P 500 Index and other benchmarks are unreliable indicators of future performance. In particular, the strategies used to generate the performance of any
portfolio managed by Solaria will vary from those used to generate the actual and estimated returns of the S&P 500 Index. In addition, a portfolio managed by Solaria will invest in different securities than the
components of the S&P 500 Index and be subject to certain levels of risk tolerance, concentration, fees and expenses, investment restrictions, market and economic conditions, regulatory considerations, liquidity,
cash flows, tax considerations, leverage and eligibility to participate in particular investments than the S&P 500 Index, as applicable. Net performance results of a portfolio managed by Solaria will reflect returns after
the deduction of all fees and expenses. Additionally, Solaria can make no representations as to the methodology used to generate the returns of the S&P 500 Index.

Estimated returns and other projected parameters presented in this document are based on the prior experience of Solaria and/or its principals, and other factors Solaria deems relevant, including current and
expected market conditions and certain resource materials prepared by third parties. While Solaria believes that estimated returns are reasonable based on its analysis and modeling, no assurance is given that such
targets and projections will in fact prove accurate in respect of the S&P 500 Index or any portfolio managed by Solaria. In particular, investors will not be guaranteed any particular performance and actual results
could differ materially from those projected in respect of the S&P 500 Index. Accordingly, no representation or warranty is made as to future performance or such forward-looking statements. The estimated returns
presented herein relate exclusively to the S&P 500 Index and do not represent any estimated or projected returns of any portfolio managed by Solaria.

DISCLAIMER

This document is confidential and is not intended for public use or distribution. The content provided is for informational purposes only, and investors should not construe any such information or other content as legal,
tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained herein constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Solaria Management LP (the “Investment Manager”), its affiliates or any
third-party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such
jurisdiction.

All content is information of a general nature and does not address the financial circumstances of any prospective individual or entity investor. Nothing herein constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does
any information constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed. Neither the Investment Manager, its affiliates nor its advisors become a fiduciary by virtue of any person’s use of or access
to this content herein. Prospective investors alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content before making any decisions based on
such information or other content. In exchange, you agree not to hold the Investment Manager, its affiliates or any third-party service provider liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you
make based on information or other content made available to you.

Solaria Onshore Fund LP, Solaria Offshore Fund Ltd, Solaria Master Fund LP and the Investment Manager have not yet commenced operations and except where otherwise indicated herein, the information provided
herein is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and will not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect information that subsequently becomes available, or
circumstances existing or changes occurring after the date hereof.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION 4

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