Major Powers Competition in Indian Ocean

G.M Pitafi (Ph.D. Scholar)

“Whoever rules the waves, rules the world”

Introduction

Indian Ocean, the third largest water body in the world, has always been remained a center of
gravity among different super powers. Its geostrategic, economic and political significance has
attracted many countries to control this region. Historically, various powers attempted to
dominate this region including Chinese, Portuguese, Britain, Americans and Indians. Similarly,
post-cold war world order is again seeing rise in competition among major powers—USA,
China, Russia, India and Pakistan—in Indian Ocean owing to its vital aforementioned
importance. Meanwhile the nature of interests varies from state to state in the form of economics,
geopolitics and geostrategic levels.

Significance of Indian Ocean

Indian Ocean is the third largest of the world‟s oceanic divisions with an area of 70.56 million
km. It consists of 36 states around its littoral belt and 11 hinterland states. Moreover, half of the
world‟s containerized freight and two thirds of oil shipments travel through Indian Ocean. It also
includes a variety of races, cultures, and religions. Along with these the most important
chokepoints i.e. the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb, the Cape of Good Hope,
the straits of Malacca are also the part of this water body. Similarly, it is the home of four major
world continents i.e. Asia, Australia, Africa and Europe. Perhaps because of this, the IOR has
been considered an arena of major power rivalry and global geopolitics.
Major Competing Powers in Indian Ocean

1. United States of America: A Status quo power

United States of America seems very sensitive for this region owing to its vast geo-economical
and geopolitical significance. USA being super power feels seriously any alteration in the
geostrategic configuration of this region by rising power China. USA has decided to contain the
rising power of China in the Pacific and Indian Ocean regions through different alliances and
likeminded states. Moreover, the initiation of Chinese led Road and Belt Initiative (BRI) and its
flagship program China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has materialized the perceived
threat of USA. It is a reason that USA is utilizing her full energy to control Indian Ocean region
by itself or its allies. It is collaborating with Indian Ocean littoral states particularly India and
also modernizing QUAD in IOR. Moreover, it also intends to exert carrot and stick policy
towards Pakistan to become its ally in the region against China. To sum up, USA has major
stakes in Indian Ocean region against the rising power of China and it intends to detain China at
any cost and maintain status quo in the region as well in the world.
 2. Peoples Republic of China: A Revisionist power

China is perceived as a rising super power in the world and a big challenge for USA and its
allies. Indian Ocean region has direct vital importance for China mainly because its estimated
more than 90 percent oil importing travels in this region from Middle East. IOR has also become
significant for China because of its disputes in South China Sea. USA with help of its allies,
especially QUAD, is a big threat for China in Pacific region therefore it wanted alternative routes
through IO. It is one of the logic behind the initiation of BRI and CPEC which can become
natural and safe routes for Chinese imports all around the world. Moreover, BRI has wide
outreach all over in the world because it connects different continents through roads and
maritime routes. As major part of the BRI crosses through IOR, it is imperative for China to
maintain control in the region. But a major limitation hinders the ambitions of China is that it is
not the natural part of this region therefore it has to depend on other states i.e. Pakistan. Thus,
China considers IOR at the top priority because of BRI and to contain USA strategies against
her.

3. Russia: A Return to South Asia

Russia‟s “Return to South Asia” refers cultivating warm relations with both Pakistan and India.
Russia is also considers as the major competitor in IOR owing to its historical legacy and
domination. Russia under the leadership of its president Vladimir Putin is resurging and trying to
enter in the limelight of world politics. Therefore, Russia is approaching in South Asia with
special reference to India and Pakistan for economic and strategic reasons i.e. selling of weapons
and other commercial commodities. Moreover, historically, Russia, erstwhile USSR, has played
a very crucial role during cold war period as it was directly involved in politics of this region.
During cold war USSR and USA competed in Indian Ocean waters, their submarines carried
different missions against each other. Thus, Russian resurgence and return to South Asian region
ultimately will lead her to come in IOR which may cause implications for other regional actors.

4. India: An ambitious littoral state

It is the major nuclear stakeholder littoral state in Indian Ocean and it sees itself as the
natural preeminent regional power in Indian Ocean. India has treated the Indian Ocean as its
“backyard”, instead some maritime scholar believes as „‟front yard‟‟ owing to its geography,
territory and control. Moreover, India is cooperating with USA against China and Pakistan in
maritime affairs. Similarly, it is modernizing its navy by adding aircraft carriers and launch of
nuclear submarine Arihant which has seriously threaten the nuclear configuration of the sub-
continent region due to achieving second strike nuclear capability. In a nut shell, Indian maritime
ambitions in IOR can seriously shake the peaceful security environment of the Indian Ocean
region and can lead to a big disaster as well.

5. Implications on Pakistan
A. Strategic level

Pakistan shares a 990km long coastline with the Arabian Sea and is among the major
littoral states of IOR. Its Western coast adjacent with the Gulf makes it of strategic importance
for providing shortest, established and a secure sea route to the landlocked Central Asian
Republics, East Asia, European and Pacific nations, Afghanistan and Western province of China
via Gwadar Port. Furthermore, due to China‟s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and CPEC, the
Indian Ocean assumes even greater significance for Pakistan. Meanwhile, Indian maritime
ambitions to subdue the role of Pakistan through sabotaging CPEC can be a serious strategic
security concern as well as the challenge for Pakistan.

B. Economic level

Pakistan is heavily dependent on the Indian Ocean with about 95 percent of its trade through sea.
Mostly its petroleum, oil and lubricants supplies are also imported through the Arabian Sea.
Moreover, the Gwadar Port also provides the facility of being a hub for oil and gas pipelines
linking Central Asian region, Middle East, Africa and Europe as well through Suez Canal. Any
competition in IOR can either trigger security threshold or hamper peaceful economic
environment which can directly impact Pakistan. Therefore, peace and safety in IOR is crucial
for Pakistan.

C. Political level

This major power competition in IOR has serious political implications for Pakistan. In this
regard it will be challenging for Pakistan to choose one side if USA-China rivalry gets worst in
given situation. Pakistan cannot leave China due to geography and economic ties whereas it also
cannot straightly go against USA due to structural constraints i.e. IMF, FATF and other financial
regimes.

Recommendations

1. A technologically advanced and highly equipped naval force has become a dire need of
Pakistan.
2. Completion process of CPEC and Gwadar Port should be enhanced without any further
delay.
3. Pakistan should more focus on naval diplomacy as well as on the modernization of naval
force