Project Management and Analysis Second Assignment
Project Management and Analysis Second Assignment
Project Management and Analysis Second Assignment
ID MAO/1924/13
October 2022 GC
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Contents Page
Section One Financial Analysis of a Project..........................................................................................3
1. Introduction...................................................................................................................................3
2. Financial Analysis of a Project......................................................................................................3
a. Introduction...............................................................................................................................3
b. Definition, Scope and Importance of Financial Analysis............................................................3
i. What Is Financial Analysis?..................................................................................................3
ii. Scope of financial Analysis...................................................................................................3
iii. Importance of Financial Analysis......................................................................................5
c. Approaches in Financial Analysis of a project............................................................................6
i. Non-discounting methods......................................................................................................6
ii. Discounting Methods.............................................................................................................7
Differences and Similarities between financial and economic analysis of a project............................10
1. Introduction.....................................................................................................................................12
2. Definition, scope, and Importance of Economic Analysis...............................................................12
2.1. Definition of Economic Analysis................................................................................................12
2.2. Scope of Economic Analysis......................................................................................................12
2.3. Importance of Economic Analysis.............................................................................................13
3. Rationale for Economic Analysis....................................................................................................14
4. Valuation and Shadow Price............................................................................................................14
4.1. Pricing in economic analysis or Shadow pricing........................................................................15
4.2. Sources of Shadow pricing.......................................................................................................15
5. Basic Principles of shadow pricing..................................................................................................16
6. Use of shadow Price........................................................................................................................17
1. in project evaluation................................................................................................................17
2. in public policy........................................................................................................................18
7. Conversion Factor........................................................................................................................18
7. Approaches in Economic Analysis.................................................................................................19
7.1. LM-Approach............................................................................................................................19
7.2. UNIDO Approaches...................................................................................................................19
Reference.............................................................................................................................................21
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Section One Financial Analysis of a Project
1. Introduction
Financial analysis refers to an analysis of finance-related projects/activities or a company’s
financial statements, which includes a balance sheet, income statement, and notes to accounts
or financial ratios to evaluate the company’s results, performance, and its trend, which will be
useful for taking significant decisions like investment and planning projects and financing
activities. After assessing the company’s performance using financial data, a person presents
findings to the top management of a company with recommendations about how it can
improve in the future.
Financial analysis is the process of evaluating businesses, projects, budgets, and other
finance-related transactions to determine their performance and suitability. Typically,
financial analysis is used to analyze whether an entity is stable, solvent, liquid, or profitable
enough to warrant a monetary investment.
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is measured against another item that's considered the base and the relationship is
expressed as a percentage. Though it only accounts for one time period, it can help
you recognize any changes over time and compare various entities
2. Horizontal:- Horizontal analysis refers to the evaluation of how financial statement
figures change over a period of time. In other words, it compares one item to another
in a different time period. Because of this, it can help analyze a business' finances
from one year to the next. Horizontal analysis is also known as dynamic analysis or
trend analysis, the latter being because this form of analysis can be useful in spotting
trends over time.
3. Liqudity:- Liquidity analysis uses ratios to determine whether or not a company will
be able to pay back any debts or other expenses. This type of analysis is helpful
because if a business isn't able to pay off any liabilities, they're bound to face financial
troubles in the near future. Liquidity analysis is particularly helpful for lenders or
creditors who want some insight into your financial standing before offering you a
loan or credit. Various ratios such as the cash ratio and current ratio are used in a
liquidity analysis
4. Profitability:- In a profitability analysis, a company's rate of return is evaluated. Every
business wants to be profitable, therefore, using the profitability analysis to measure
its cost and revenue in a given period can be highly beneficial for them. If a
company's revenue outweighs its costs, it's considered profitable. Profitability ratios—
margin and return ratios—are used in this type of analysis. These types of ratios
include the following:
Margin ratios:- Gross profit margin, operating profit margin, net profit margin, ash
flow margin
Returns Ratio:-Return on invest ( Assets), return of equity, ash returns of asset
5. Scenario and Sensitivity:- During this type of analysis, an investment's value is
measured based on current scenarios and changes. For example, it analyzes how
variable A is affected based on changes and sensitivities in other variables such as
variable B or C. Scenario and sensitivity analysis can even help analysts predict
certain outcomes based on different variables. They do so by studying the various
variable effects based on prior data and then making informed decisions based on
their findings.
6. Variance :-Variance analysis refers to the process of analyzing any differences between a
business's budget and the actual amount it spent. For example, if you budgeted your sales to
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be $1,000 but you actually sold $250, the variance analysis would conclude with a difference
of $750.
Once you know this, you can start to determine the cause for the variance and implement strategies
for avoiding any negative variances in the future. Variance analysis encompasses various types of
variances including purchase price variance, labor rate variance, fixed overhead spending variance
and material yield variance.
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financial statements and performance over time. All capital loans carry an interest rate and
determine the best rate. They are also a part of the decision process in making credit loans to
companies.
4. Decisions on investments
Investors with surplus investable capital always look for opportunities to place their funds as
investments in profitable and profit-potential companies. Before investing such capital funds,
investors look at the past performance and predicted profits
In general the goal of financial analysis is to analyze whether an entity is stable, solvent,
liquid, or profitable enough to warrant a monetary investment. It is used to evaluate
economic trends, set financial policy, build long-term plans for business activity, and
identify projects or companies for investment.
A. Ranking by Inspection:- With the same investment, two projects produced the same net
value of incremental production for a period, but one continues to earn longer than the other.
In other instances, for the same investment total net value of incremental production may be
the same, but one project has more of the flow earlier in the time sequence say in the second
year itself than the other in the third year. In many cases projects can indeed be examined or
rejected on the basis of inspection. A clear-cut case may be two alternative investments, one
of which will cost more than the return. Such a choice project analysis must be done before
selecting any projects.
B. Payback Period: Payback period is the length of time from the beginning of the project to
until the net value of the incremental production stream reaches the total amount of the
capital investment. The payback period is a basic and common means of choosing among
investments in business enterprises, especially when the choice entails a high degree of risk.
In fisheries projects, however it is not often used. The two important weaknesses of the
paybackperiodare:-
• It fails to consider earnings after the payback period. Hence payback period is an inadequate
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criterion for the choice between these two alternatives.
• It does not take into account the timings of the proceeds (time value of money).
C. Proceeds per Unit outlay:- Investments are sometimes ranked by the proceeds per unit out
lay, which is the total net value of incremental production divided by the total amount of the
investment. The criterion for proceeds per unit of outlay fails to consider timing or time value
of money; money to be received in the future weighs as heavily as money in hand today.
D. Average Rate of Return:-Another criterion for investment choice is the average annual
proceeds per unit of outlay, which is obviously related to proceeds per unit outlay. To
calculate this measure, the total of the net value of incremental production is first divided by
the number of years it will be realized and then this average of the annual proceed is divided
by the original outlay for the capital items. This investment criterion has a very serious flaw.
As it fails to take into consideration the length of the time of the benefit stream. It
automatically introduces a serious bias towards short-lived-investment, with high cash
proceeds.
A.Net Present Value: - The basic financial concept of time value money states that the money
you have known is more valuable than the money you collect later on. This is because you
can use it now to earn more money by running a business or buying something now and
selling it later for more, or simply putting it in the bank and earning more interest. The money
received in the future is also less valuable because inflation erodes its purchasing power. But
how do you compare the value of money now with the value of money in the future? This is
where net present value plays an important role. Let us discuss what net present value is.
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Net Present Value or NPV is the sum of the present value of cash inflows and outflows. In
other words, it is the difference between the present values of cash inflows and the present
value of cash outflows over some time.
NPV is a strong approach to determine if the project is profitable or not. It considers the
interest rate, which is generally equivalent to the inflation rate, Hence, the real value of
money now at each year of operation is considered.
In case of even cash flows, the following NPV formula can be used:
Here,
B.Benefit cost ratio:-The benefit cost ratio (or benefit-to-cost ratio) compares the present
value of all benefits with that of the cost and investments of a project or investment. These
benefits and costs are treated as monetary cash flows or their equivalents, e.g. for non-
monetary benefits or company-internal costs. Its meaning depends on the value it is
indicating. For the interpretation, refer to the following 3 generic ranges of BCR values:
The present value of the benefits in a series of cash flows is lower than the present value of
the corresponding costs. The lower the BCR, the higher the excess of discounted costs
compared to the discounted benefits.
In general, pursuing investments with a negative BCR is not recommended. The same holds
basically true for different project options.
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However, there are certain types of projects that need to be conducted even if they are not
generating sufficient tangible or quantifiable benefits to cover the costs, e.g. the
implementation of regulatory or legal requirements. In these cases, the option with the
highest BCR (yet below 1) may be the least unprofitable implementation scenario.
The present value of benefits of a series of cash flows equals the likewise discounted costs.
This situation is obviously more preferable than options with a BCR lower than 1. However,
if there are alternatives with a benefit-to-cost ratio exceeding 1, they are likely to be favored.
This value range indicates that the discounted benefits exceed the present value of the costs
and investments. The general rule is that the higher the BCR the greater the profit an
investment option or project is expected to generate.
Apart from the benefit cost ratio, there are other important quantitative and qualitative
considerations though – in reality, a project or investment decision is based on a number of
different criteria rather than relying on the BCR only.
C.Internal Rate of Return:-The internal rate of return (IRR) is a metric used in financial
analysis to estimate the profitability of potential investments. IRR is a discount rate that
makes the net present value (NPV) of all cash flows equal to zero in a discounted cash flow
analysis. IRR calculations rely on the same formula as NPV does. Keep in mind that IRR is
not the actual dollar value of the project. It is the annual return that makes the NPV equal to
zero.
Generally speaking, the higher an internal rate of return, the more desirable an investment is
to undertake. IRR is uniform for investments of varying types and, as such, can be used to
rank multiple prospective investments or projects on a relatively even basis. In general,
when comparing investment options with other similar characteristics, the investment with
the highest IRR probably would be considered the best.
The modified internal rate of return (MIRR) assumes that positive cash flows are reinvested
at the firm's cost of capital and that the initial outlays are financed at the firm's financing
cost. By contrast, the traditional internal rate of return (IRR) assumes the cash flows from a
project are reinvested at the IRR itself. The MIRR, therefore, more accurately reflects the
cost and profitability of a project. Meanwhile, the internal rate of return (IRR) is a discount
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rate that makes the net present value (NPV) of all cash flows from a particular project equal
to zero. Both MIRR and IRR calculations rely on the formula for NPV.
Below mentioned are some of the key points that helps us understand the difference
between economic and financial analysis.
Economic Analysis– Economic analysis takes a much wider view and entails the impact of a
project on society as a whole. It considers the viewpoints of all stakeholders and how the
results of a project align with the broader economic and social policies as well as the
International scenario. The costs in an economic analysis are a measure of the resources that a
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society collectively invests for the fulfilment of the project. The benefits, however, need not
be just monetary and often include intangible benefits.
Financial Analysis
Interest payments are treated as a cost in financial analysis as they are the additional
amount that the stakeholder has to pay to external bodies along with returning the
borrowed capital.
financial analysis uses market prices to check the balance of investment and the
sustainability of a project,
Economic Analysis
The market price is often modified to arrive at what is popularly known as the
‘shadow price’ or ‘economic price’
Taxes are levied on a project’s returns and are collected by the government itself.
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Economic analysis uses economic prices that are converted from the market price by
excluding tax, profit, subsidy, etc. to measure the legitimacy of using national resources
to certain projects.
1. Introduction
Economic Analysis takes a much wider view and entails the impact of a project on society as
a whole. It considers the viewpoints of all stakeholders and how the results of a project
aligned with the broader economic and social policies as well as the international scenario.
The costs in economic analysis are a measure of the resources that society collectively invests
for the fulfilment of the project. The benefits, however, need not be just monetary and often
include intangible benefits.
Economic analysis is very important as it allows organizations and their donors to compare
the impact of social intervention to the cost of implementing it. These comparisons aid in
determining the most effective resource allocation.
Economic analysis is a type of assessment that helps answer the question "is it worth it?" in
addition to the question "does it work?" that other impact evaluations address. Economic
analysis has been more prominent in the impact measurement practices of charities and
donors in recent years, as the sector has been under increasing pressure to give estimates of
what value is created for every pound invested.
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The following are some of the scopes of economic analysis
Cost Effectiveness Analysis
Cost Utility Analysis
Cost Benefit Analysis
Cost Analysis
Effectiveness Analysis
Cost and outcome description
Cost description
Outcome description
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and benefits of free movement of labour. Economic studies can try to examine the economic
effects of immigration. This can help people make a decision about political issues.
7. Forecasts: - Economic forecasts are more difficult than understanding the current
situation. However, although forecasts are not always reliable, they can help give decision-
makers an idea of possible outcomes.
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enterprise is worth. This is achieved through a valuation – an estimate of the company’s
overall worth.
There are many reasons why somebody may decide to have a business valued:
This relates to the supposed advantage the company can derive from that extra unit.
Shadow pricing is often considered a limited concept as it can be applied to particular
situations during financial analysis.
It is estimated to be the assumed price of services, products, activities, and tasks that have no
market price. It can also be called an opportunity cost or a proxy value. Shadow pricing
means the highest price that someone is willing to pay for one extra unit of something.
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4.2. Sources of Shadow pricing
The need for shadow prices arises as a result of “externalities” and the presence of
distortionary market instruments. An externality is defined as a cost or benefit incurred by a
third party as a result of production or consumption of a good or services. Where the external
effect is not being accounted for in the final cost-benefit analysis of its production. These
inaccuracies and skewed results produce an imperfect market mechanism which inefficiently
allocates resources.
Two basic types of shadow prices exist, depending on how sensitive society is to income
distribution considerations. Consider the national goal of maximizing the present value of
aggregate consumption over a long period. If the consumption of different individuals is
added directly regardless of their income levels, then the resulting shadow prices are
efficiency prices because they reflect the pure efficiency of resource allocation. Alternatively,
if consumption of low-income groups needs to be raised, shadow prices may be adjusted by
income group to give greater weight to the poor in aggregate consumption. Such prices are
called social prices. In practice, such formal weighting schemes are seldom used in project
evaluation. Instead, distributional and other social issues are addressed by direct targeting of
beneficiaries and similar ad hoc methods. In brief, efficiency shadow prices try to establish
the economic values of inputs and outputs, while social shadow prices take account of the
fact that the income distribution between different societal groups or regions may be distorted
in terms of overall national objectives. Our analysis will place primary emphasis on
efficiency shadow pricing.
Non-priced inputs and outputs like common property resources and externalities (especially
those arising from environmental impacts) must be shadow priced to reflect their economic
opportunity costs.
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Access to common property resources is unrestricted, and thus exploitation tends to occur on
a first come, first served basis, often resulting in (unsustainable) overuse. Public goods are
environmental resources (e.g., scenic view) that are freely accessible and indivisible (i.e.,
enjoyment by one individual does not preclude enjoyment by others). These properties lead to
―free riding – a situation in which one user, (either knowingly or unknowingly), uses the
resource at a price less than the it‘s efficient cost, and thereby takes advantage of greater
contributions by others.
Externalities are defined as beneficial or adverse effects imposed on others for which the
originator of these effects cannot charge or be charged. If a (damaging) externality can be
economically valued or shadow priced, then a charge or tax may be levied on the perpetrator,
to compensate for and limit the damage. This is the so called ―Pigouvian or ―price control‖
approach to environmental regulation. The basic concepts and techniques for economic
valuation of environmental impacts underlying this approach are discussed later.
Unfortunately, many externalities are difficult to measure not only in physical terms but also
in monetary equivalents (i.e., willingness to pay). Quite often therefore, the ―quantity
control‖ approach is taken, by imposing regulations and standards, expressed in physical
measurements only that try to eliminate the perceived external damages (e.g., safe minimum
standards for pollution). Especially when environmental pollution is severe and obvious,
setting standards could serve as a useful first step to raise consciousness and limit excessive
environmental damage, until more accurate valuation studies can be carried out. In such
cases, the initial emphasis is on cost effectiveness (i.e., achieving pollution targets at the
lowest cost), rather than valuing the benefits of control measures.
In practice, it is often prudent to use a variable mix of both price and quantity controls to
protect the environment. A mixed system allows the various policy instruments to be flexibly
adjusted depending on marginal cleanup costs. In this way, an optimal outcome can be
approached even without full information concerning control costs
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1. in project evaluation
It is a great tool for evaluating the effects of a task or a project on the national income of a
country. It is prepared based on cost-benefit analysis or profitability criterion where you can
calculate benefits and cots at accounting prices. It is vital to remember that even if you get a
rough estimate via shadow pricing, it can prove a great help.
2. in public policy
3. in programming
The use of fiscal, monetary and other policies by the state help in bringing the market prices
of products, factors and foreign exchange in conformity with their shadow prices and thus
make investment programming a success. Thus shadow prices are a useful and important
devise for the success of project evaluation, public policy and investment programming.
There are numerous advantages of shadow pricing, and some of them are described below-
it is a useful tool that is used to know the advantages associated with the cost of extra
use of a resource
It comes in handy when you have to convert resources into social costs
7. Conversion Factor
The conversion factor is a key element in hedge calculations and, more generally, in the
analysis of all market operations including bonds and futures.
When a futures contract is held until maturity, the delivery price of a bond for physical
settlement of the future is obtained by multiplying the bond's price with its conversion factor.
CF = EP/FP (EP=economic price, FP= financial price)
• Labor unskilled- is an outdated term, once used to describe a segment of the workforce
associated with a limited skill set or minimal economic value for the work performed. The
correct term is low-wage labor.
• Labor skilled- refers to highly trained, educated, or experienced segments of the workforce
that can complete more complex mental or physical tasks on the job. Skilled labor is often
specialized and may require a prolonged period of training and experience.
• Standard conversion factor (SCF), Shadow exchange rate factor (SERF) ,Shadow wage rate
factor (SWRF) and CF for labor,
7.1. LM-Approach
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Little-Mirrlees Approach (I.M.D.):- Little and James A. Mirrlees have developed an approach
to SCBA which is famously known as L-M approach. The core of this approach is that the
social cost of using a resource in developing countries differs widely from the price paid for
it. Hence, it requires Shadow Prices to denote the real value of a resource to society.
UNIDO approach measures cost and benefits in terms of consumption. The UNIDO approach focuses
on efficiency, savings and redistribution aspects in different stages. UNIDO Approach consumption
cost and benefits. The UNIDO approach focuses on savings, redistribution and efficiency in different
stages.
Conclusion
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