Sustain Sci (2008) 3:5–7

DOI 10.1007/s11625-008-0049-x

SPECIAL FEATURE: EDITORIAL

Global sea-level rise and coastal vulnerability

Received: 1 February 2008 / Accepted: 1 February 2008 / Published online: 11 March 2008
Ó Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008

Global sea-level has fluctuated through geological time but level rise and to assess coastal vulnerability has been the
the sea-level oscillations during the Quaternary and espe- subject of numerous scientific articles in the global change
cially the last Ice Age were particularly important in literature, which have recently been reviewed and syn-
shaping our modern coastline. At the last glacial maximum thesised in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
of 20,000 years ago, the sea level was around 120 m lower (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (Parry et al. 2007; Sol-
than today. It then rose rapidly to reach its current position omon et al. 2007). The feature articles in this issue of
around 6–7,000 years ago. During this period, there were Sustainability Science provide a useful contribution to this
times when the sea level was rising at rates in excess of continuing debate. The idea for this issue arose from dis-
20 mm year-1, although the pattern, timing and rates of cussions following a special session on sea-level rise, held
this major sea-level rise event vary around the world, as at the Open Science Conference of the ESSP (Earth Sys-
does the time when sea level stabilised near its present tems Science Partnership) in November 2006, Beijing,
position (Harvey 2006). After a few millennia of relative China. The ESSP comprises a partnership of the world’s
stability, geological and tide-gauge data provide evidence four leading global change scientific research organisa-
of sea-level rise during the 19th and 20th centuries, tions: (1) DIVERSITAS (International Program for
reaching an average rate of 1.7 mm year-1 during the 20th Biodiversity Science); (2) IGBP (International Geosphere-
century (Church and White 2006). This modern sea-level Biosphere Programme); (3) IHDP (International Human
rise raised concerns about the vulnerability of the signifi- Dimensions Project); and (4) WCRP (World Climate
cant population living near the coast, for which there are Research Program).
various global and sub-global estimates (Mimura 2001; The co-chairs of the special conference session on sea-
Small and Nicholls 2003; Ericson et al. 2006; Woodroffe level rise (Wilson and Harvey) brought scientists together
et al. 2006; McGranahan et al. 2007; Nicholls et al. 2007). from different global change research programs (largely
Recent satellite data, combined with tide-gauge data, pro- the WCRP and IGBP) to present different perspectives on
vide evidence of an increased sea-level rise of over 3 mm sea-level rise. This followed recent research efforts from
year-1 (see Church et al.; this volume). the WCRP, which held a workshop in 2006 on sea-level
The need to better understand the causes of sea-level rise and vulnerability (see Church et al.; this volume) and
rise, provide accurate predictions of the future rate of sea- the IGBP and its coastal program LOICZ (Land–Ocean
Interactions in the Coastal Zone), which recently published
a 10-year research synthesis (Crossland et al. 2005). Four
N. Harvey (&)
of the speakers from the ESSP conference (Church, Har-
Geographical and Environmental Studies,
University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5400, Australia vey, Nicholls and von Storch) have contributed articles to
e-mail: nick.harvey@adelaide.edu.au this issue of Sustainability Science with the additional help
of a number of their fellow researchers. A further two
R. Nicholls
papers (Syvitski and Torresan et al.) have been included to
School of Civil Engineering and the Environment,
University of Southampton, Highfield, broaden the scope of the debate. The first three papers
Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK focus on physical aspects of sea-level rise, whereas the last

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three papers examine different approaches to coastal vul- harbours and near-shore areas, which allows them to factor
nerability assessment. in bathymetric and coastline alterations. While their
The first paper by Church et al. provides a background methodology has been tested for European data, it is still
to historical sea-level rise and gives a detailed account of under development for other parts of the world and they
the various contributions to sea-level rise in the 20th cen- acknowledge a major challenge will be in the simulation of
tury, including ocean-thermal expansion, glaciers and ice tropical storms, which are widely expected to intensify in a
caps, Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets, and terrestrial warming world (Solomon et al. 2007).
water storage. The paper outlines the observational The next three papers all examine coastal vulnerability
requirements needed to inform a better understanding of assessment (CVA). The first of these (Torresan et al.) uses
sea-level rise and comments on some of the impacts of sea- a European example to compare the use of global and
level rise. The latter part of the paper looks to the future regional scales in CVA. They propose a set of regional
and provides an up-to-date comment on the projections of vulnerability indicators and compare these with a group of
21st century sea-level rise and longer-term implications. In parameters and variables from the DIVA (Dynamic Inter-
particular, the paper comments on the recent satellite-based active Vulnerability Assessment) database and its broader
sea-level observations and the increasing concern about the scale approach. Torresan et al. demonstrate the applica-
stability of ice sheets. In their conclusion, Church et al. bility of their GIS-based decision support system for CVA
note the need for further research in closing the sea-level at the regional level using the Veneto shoreline in Italy as a
budget and in better understanding ice-sheet dynamics in case study. The paper discusses the value of the higher
order to reduce some of the uncertainties in sea-level spatial resolution of the regional approach and its greater
projections. analytical detail, but acknowledges constraints created by
The second paper by Syvitski provides a terrestrial the quantity of data and the geometric complexity of the
perspective to illustrate the importance of coastal dynamics modelling.
in affecting relative sea-level rise on deltaic coasts. The The paper by Harvey and Woodroffe examines Austra-
significance of environmental change for Asian megadeltas lian approaches to CVA. Although Australian scientists
has been illustrated by Woodroffe et al. (2006), who note had a significant involvement in the development of global
that these low-lying coastal regions support enormous approaches to CVA through the IPCC, Harvey and
populations, including many of the world’s megacities. Woodroffe note that, until recently, there has not been a co-
Syvitski provides an analysis of the world’s populated ordinated national approach. An attempt to do this in the
deltas to show that their long-term sustainability is often mid-1990s resulted in a series of different approaches by
more affected by large-scale engineering projects than by the various state and territory governments. Since then,
climate change-induced sea-level rise, but, nonetheless, there have been some quite sophisticated CVA approaches
both changes will act synergistically to increase coastal developed in different areas, but they are not co-ordinated
vulnerability (see Nicholls et al. 2007). The engineering at a national level. Harvey and Woodroffe identify six key
projects include dam construction, channel control and approaches developed in different regions: (1) wetland
petroleum or groundwater extraction. Syvitski demon- mapping; (2) geomorphic unit mapping; (3) storm surge
strates that the rate of eustatic sea-level rise is often similar vulnerability modelling; (4) probabilistic approaches to
to the rate of natural sediment compaction and is often beach erosion; (5) indicative mapping of potential coastal
smaller than the rate of isostatic-controlled subsidence. He retreat; and (6) Great Barrier reef vulnerability studies.
points out that deltaic coasts affected by large-scale engi- They then outline recent attempts to produce a national
neering works are even more vulnerable to sea-level rise. government-based approach to CVA.
The paper by von Storch and Woth examines the issue The final paper by Nicholls et al. provides an important
of possible future changes to storm surges and, hence, perspective to the CVA debate by placing the climate-
extreme sea levels. They note that climate change-induced change drivers of coastal vulnerability in the context of non
sea-level rise and changed storm tracks will alter the climate-change drivers. They stress the danger of ignoring
regional distribution of storm surges, but stress the these other drivers, which may lead to overstating the
importance of regional and local data, such as modifica- importance of climate change (as illustrated by Syvitski;
tions to local bathymetry. von Storch and Woth present a this volume). Nicholls et al. demonstrate that the integrated
three-step methodology using a downscaling concept to use of all coastal vulnerability drivers is possible within a
model predicted changes to storm surges in European scenario framework (using the SRES framework as an
marginal seas. They incorporate historic data into their example), and consider relevant impacts and adaptation.
models and then derive scenarios of future conditions They acknowledge the importance of sea-level rise, but
which, in the case of the North Sea, shows moderately attempt to provide a balanced approach, where it is one of a
higher surges. Their third step incorporates local data for number of coastal vulnerability drivers and the relative

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importance of the drivers needs to be assessed, as well as McGranahan G, Balk D, Anderson B (2007) The rising tide: assessing
recognising how adverse drivers may reinforce negative the risks of climate change and human settlements in low
elevation coastal zones. Environ Urban 19(1):17–37
impacts. They conclude that there is a need to make Mimura N (2001) Distribution of vulnerability and adaptation in the
assumptions about the future more explicit in CVA and Asia and Pacific region. Global change and Asia Pacific coasts.
argue for more systematic efforts on coastal scenario In: Proceedings of the APN/SURVAS/LOICZ Joint Conference
development. on Coastal Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation in the
Asia–Pacific Region, Kobe, Japan, 14–16th November 2000,
We thank all of the authors for their contributions to this Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research, pp 21–25
special issue of Sustainability Science and also the referees Nicholls RJ, Hanson S, Herweijer C, Patmore N, Hallegatte S,
and reviewers, who have added useful insights and com- Corfee-Morlot J, Château J, Muir-Wood R (2007) Ranking port
ments to the original draft manuscripts. We also thank cities with high exposure and vulnerability to climate
extremes—exposure estimates. OECD environmental working
Nobuo Mimura (Associate Editor of this journal) for his paper no. 1, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
encouragement in producing this collection of papers. Development (OECD), Paris
Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hansen CD
(eds) (2007) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and
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