Assignment+4 Using+FRED+-+Winter 2023

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ECO102 Principles of Macroeconomics

Assignment 4: FRED
Due Date: Friday, February 17th, 2023 (which is later than in the syllabus)

Contributions to changes in real GDP over the business cycle


The contributions of the main components of expenditure (C, I, G, and X − M) to GDP
differ over a country’s business cycle. In this assignment, you are asked to use FRED to
compare these contributions in the US during and after the Great Recession in the course
of the recovery, and any lessons for government from this experience for dealing with the
economic effects of the Covid recession.

Go to the https://fred.stlouisfed.org/. Search for the following four annual series for the
United States and download the data:
• Contribution to percentage change in real gross domestic product: Personal
consumption expenditures
• Contribution to percentage change in real gross domestic product: Gross private
domestic investment
• Contribution to percentage change in real gross domestic product: Government
consumption expenditure and gross investment
• Contributions to percentage change in real gross domestic product: Net exports
of goods and services

1. Graph the four series together in a single graph in the default units and show the
graph here. You can either do this in FRED or in Excel. Use 2003:Q1 to 2016:Q4. Do
the contributions to GDP add up approximately to the growth of GDP?

Now use the data you have downloaded to carry out the following tasks for the period
between of 2006:Q1 and 2010:Q4:
2. Describe the contributions to US GDP growth before the recession (2006:Q1 to
2007:Q4), during the recession (2008:Q1 to 2009:Q2) and in the recovery phase from
2009:Q3 of the business cycle to 2010:Q4. If you analyze the data in FRED, you will
see the recession shaded in the chart. Prepare a table like the one below (with a row
for each quarter) that shows the contributions of each component to the change in
GDP by quarter and include it here. Note: depending on which source you use for GDP
growth, the numbers may not add up exactly.

Period GDP C I G Net Exports


2006:Q1

2008:Q1
2008:Q2
...
2010:Q4
3. What might explain the differences seen in the role of consumption and investment
during the recession and recovery phases of the business cycle? What about the
period before the recession? Briefly explain.

4. From the contribution to GDP growth of government consumption and investment


expenditure, what can you infer about the US government’s fiscal policy during the
crisis? Briefly explain.

5. Describe the contributions of each of the components of GDP over the period since
Q1 2019. Create a new table for the period 2019:Q1 to 2022:Q4 in a similar way as
question 2. What is the most important source of the changes? What lessons do you
believe the experience during the Great Recession may have for government efforts
to address the effect of COVID-19 on the economy? Is it reflected in these data?

Note: To make sure you understand how FRED graphs are created, you may want to
extract the data into your spreadsheet and reproduce the series.

For the submission: The assignment should be written in one document and submitted
in two ways: through the Crowdmark link that was sent to the student AND through
Quercus assignments for the plagiarism check. The document has to be in a .pdf or .jpeg
format to be submitted; thus if it is written in Word, please convert it into one of these
two formats.

When it says “explain briefly” that means less than 10 lines. Your document should have
two tables and one graph.

Deadline is 11:59pm ET on Friday February 17, 2023, with a 16 minute grace period for
uploading.

The assignment is individual: you may discuss the questions with other students, but the
answers need to be formulated and written by you.

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