FACULTY OF COMPUTING

UNIVERSITI MALAYSIA PAHANG

MCT1074 BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE AND

ANALYTICS

FINAL ASSIGNMENT

Prepared by:

AHMAD SHAHIR NOH

KCT22009

Instructor’s Name:

NURZETY AHMAD AZUAN

 JoeCobra Cycle World
Descriptive and Predictive
Analytics : Future Planning
INTRODUCTION
JoeCobra Cycle World was developed by a young person who has the passion and confidence
to improve himself and raise his name to be comparable to others in the outside world. Armed
with knowledge and knowledge in the field of Sports Science, experience and capital, he
established this company.

The background of the company starts from the establishment of the company JoeCobra Cycle
World in 2004 which is registered as a sport equipment distributor and class D contractor. The
owner of the company took bold steps to venture into the field of civil engineering at a higher
level and then became a reputable and competitive company with sports companies that even
bigger. With high determination and tenacity, the JoeCobra Cycle World company is able to
compete in realizing the dream of becoming an example and the pride of the country.

JoeCobra Cycle World headquarters has been equipped with facilities to carry out
administration and business activities. It is equipped with a showroom on the ground floor,
service activities on the first floor, administrative affairs on the second floor. JoeCobra Cycle
World sells various type of cycling goods from Bicycle, Bike Accessories, Clothing and Bicycle
Component are among the main sports goods of our store in addition to other accessories. The
sporting goods sold by this store have obtained the approval of the Ministry of Trade and also
include the ISO9001 Certificate, as well as International Recognition. With strong confidence,
JoeCobra Cycle World is now taking steps to open another three new outlets in selected
locations.

The master plan of JoeCobra Cycle World, designed by our organization to meet its overall
objectives is known as strategy. Briefly, this strategy is defined as a comprehensive plan, which
is made to defeat the enemies in battle. It has the same meaning in a business context as well.

This strategy is a combination of corporate measures and actions, used by the management to
achieve a competitive market position, conduct its operations, take advantage of limited
resources may attract more customers to compete in the market efficiently and achieve
organizational objectives. Strategy is action-oriented and based on practical considerations, not
assumptions.
This strategy is formulated by the highest-level management, namely the Board of Directors
(BOD), Senior Executives, or Chief Executive Officer (CEO). Its formulation requires an in-
depth analysis of:

• Why was it formulated?

• How can it be implemented?
• When will it be implemented?
• What will be the action order?
• What will be the result?

For JoeCobra Cycle World, strategy is about choosing the best plan to achieve the organization's
long-term goals. The organization's immediate reaction tactics, in response to changes in the
business environment. As a business entity, both tactics and strategy are important. It should be
kept in mind when making a strategy or tactics that the tactics fit the strategy. Likewise, strategy
should consider tactics. If the two work together, then the result will always be positive, and
the risk of failure will be greatly reduced.

With the principle of 'Technology-Based Knowledge' we believe we can go further in this field
and become proactive and viable entrepreneurs in today's modern era.

Illustration 1: JoeCobra Cycle World Total Sales Data

Online Trending

As a Bussiness entitiy, JoeCobra Cycle World towards the trend of online business due to the
paradigm shift in the business, thus shows a rapid growth in recent years. E-commerce or also
known as Online Business is a business system that makes the medium of the Internet as an
intermediary in the process of sales and purchases. Electronic business takes place online
electronically which also involves matters related to advertising, sales orders, and also all
buying and selling activities. This also involves the delivery process for services or products
that allow them to be sent through electronic media. Examples such as pictures, software, e-
books and even advisory services. This business organization needs a policy and also a strategy
in entering this business to conquer customers. Meanwhile, customers have many options to
make decisions in obtaining goods and services. Lately, it has been using the Internet, especially
the Web, to organize a network that unites customers, sellers and third parties in an electronic
environment that is safe for all parties and reliable. With e-commerce, a company or individual
can conduct sales and purchase transactions from and anywhere in the world without wasting a
lot of time, energy and distance provided they have the appropriate IT equipment and
telecommunications infrastructure that allows an individual to access the internet.

The whole world is going digital now and social media has become the part of our daily routine.
Now a day’s majority of the People are preferring online marketing rather than traditional
marketing. Post demonetization people don’t have much cash in their hand which impacted the
cash on delivery mode of payment. People started using plastic money and e wallets for making
payments. Demonetization gave boost to digital payments and encouraged people to shop
online more. It provided opportunity to ecommerce players to push customers in adopting
cashless transactions.[1]

Aim & Objectives

Illustration 2: JoeCobra Cycle World Sales Volume between Internet Sale and Reseller
The company strives to stay competitive in the market especially in the online market. Online
Sales Increase for JoeCobra Cycle World has increased year on year reaching 28% of total sales
are from online. The company needs to find a way to improve this online sales performance
through analytical data obtained from the company's sales performance to facilitate decision-
making for the company's future performance. This is based on which product sales are higher
and lower and identify sales and supply patterns to achieve this objective.
• To examine the prevailing situation of the internet sales of JoeCobra Cycle World via
descriptive analytics methods.
• To build the most effective predictive model with optimum accuracy and evaluation
measures to predict future occurrences.
• To draft valid recommendations to JoeCobra Cycle World by evaluating the customer
buying behaviour to improve their future internet sales.

ANALYSIS METHODS

For a long time, JoeCobra Cycle World was analyzed the data to change the form of raw data
into more meaningful information. Data analysis is the main component that provides results
from a data collection and is used as a basis for decision making. Data from various sources is
collected, studied, and then analyzed to form some sort of finding or conclusion. There are
various specific data analysis methods, some of which include data mining, text analysis,
business intelligence, and data visualization.

Therefore, data analysis can be done by using Microsoft Power Business Intelligence Desktop.
The assumption of some people who say that analysis using Power BI is difficult. This
assumption can be changed once you learn about how easy it is to analyze data using Power BI.
Traditional analysis methods that allow for increased time, can now be completed with methods
that may only take a few minutes.

In this data analysis topic, you will be exposed to several analysis methods via descriptive and
predictive analytical methods. This analysis involves analysis using criteria, analysis using
expressions, analysis using calculation formulas and analysis using parameters.

In this era of globalization and the ever-changing competitive trends of the market, timely and
integrated use of information systems is needed for effective decision making. With the advent
of information technology, many big data companies, industries, and even government agencies
collect electronic data from a variety of sources, understand it, and use it to make meaningful
decisions.[2]
Data Understanding and Analysis

Illustration 3: JoeCobra Cycle World Model of Data Analysis in Power BI

Sales analysis, that is, through all sales gaps between research and business analysis,
comparison and evaluation of actual sales data and inter-sales programs to provide guidance for
JoeCobra Cycle World future sales. Sales analysis is to check the implementation of the
corporate marketing plan, an important basis for business situation analysis and evaluation.

Transactional data for sales usually contain similar data in every enterprise. Transactional data
consist of many records. Filtering and pivoting information are common techniques in sales
analysis. Instruments like dashboards help managers in visualizing aggregated data. Traditional
instruments like Auto Filters usually show the items that are sold by different sales’ points.[3]

Although the method of sales analysis between various branches of the company is different,
but all businesses will be in customer sales invoices or cash receipts collecting sales data, which
is the main invoice or receipt of accounting qualification. The sales management department
places their information needs for sales analysis communicated to the sales staff, and the
collection of sales data from internal and external records, and appropriate. Sales managers can
analyze sales, evaluate current sales, identify actual sales gaps and sales plans, analyze the
reasons, and in an effort to develop a business plan based on future sales. Data analysis is an
important process with the aim of discovering useful information to make timely decisions. In
this study, descriptive and predictive analytics were carried out to analyze the data.

Covering the overall process of data creation, distribution, and maintenance, the datasheet aims
to help data creators provide comprehensive documentation in favor of transparency and
accountability while allowing data consumers to make informed choices when using the data.[4]
Descriptive Analytics

Descriptive analysis is a method of statistical analysis that aims to provide a description or

overview of the research subject based on variable data obtained from a certain group of
subjects. Descriptive analysis can be displayed in the form of frequency distribution tables,
histogram tables, mean values, standard deviation values and others. The benefit obtained from
the use of descriptive analysis is to get a complete picture of the data either in verbal or
numerical form related to the data we are examining.

Descriptive statistics is the initial stage of analysis used to describe and summarize data. The
availability of a large amount of data and very efficient computational methods strengthened
this area of the statistic.[5]

For JoeCobra Cycle World, conducting research that uses the descriptive analysis method
process, several steps that have been followed, among others:
• Formulating the problem
• Determine the type of information or data
• Determine data collection procedures
• Perform data processing
• Making decisions based on the results of data analysis
Predictive Analytics

To make sure all decision made by the company in futere for the better result and performance,
JoeCobra Cycle World using the predictive analytics process which can helped to identify the
most significant decision variables for the business operation while building a more suitable
predictive model. This process supported to achieve objective while cross-checking with the
results obtained from the descriptive analytics.

It basically use the statistics and model technique for the predictions about future performance
and outcomes. It looks all the historical data patterns to determine those patterns are likely to
come again. It encompasses the variety of statistical techniques from data mining, predictive
modeling and machine learning that actually analyze the current and historical facts about future
or otherwise unknown events. This is widely useful for investors and business people. It gives
slight idea about how their money will grow. So that the risk factor is much decreased and is
more efficient. Predictive Analytics judges relationships among factors to access.[6]
PROBLEM STATEMENT
Supply Chain Management

A supply chain is a system made up of every individual involved in ensuring that your product
reaches the customer's hands through the distribution channel. This includes raw material
collection processes, suppliers, producers or manufacturers, transport companies, wholesale
warehouses, storage or stock rooms and clerks at check-in desks. It also includes the tasks and
functions involved in the transfer of the product, such as quality control, marketing,
procurement, and sourcing.

The true art of management and the key to capturing a long-term competitive advantage are to
effectively manage the supply chain and optimize all business processes from idea development
to its commerciali- zation and customer satisfaction. Finding the most productive model for
converting the flow of goods into finished products of high quality and ensuring ef- ficient
logistics to the end consumer with all their needs in mind are the main goals of the supply chain
management.[7]

Supply chain management is the management of products or services from the beginning to the
end user.

The supply chain, also known as the value chain or demand chain, includes customers,
suppliers, processes, products, and the various resources that affect products and services.
Supply chain emphasizes processes and relationships between companies. Supply chain
management refers to the management of products and services in the entire process from the
procurement of raw materials to the sale of finished products to customers. It emphasizes the
coordination of activities between companies to produce a win-win effect.

Supply chain management, through five main functions, planning, purchasing, manufacturing,
moving, and selling, has two effects: reducing costs and adding value. In particular, supply
chain management can bring the following benefits to companies:
 1. improve strategic, operational and financial performance in the supply chain;
2. reduce costs and manage working capital effectively;
3. effective inventory management of raw materials, work in progress and finished
products;
4. reduce transaction costs and improve transaction efficiency among supply chain
members;
5. increase customer value, provide products and services needed by customers, and
provide solution packages;
6. Improve the ability to balance supply and demand.

According to our companies, good supply chain management can reduce inventory by 50%,
reduce the total cost-to-income ratio of the chain by 20%, increase accurate delivery by 40%,
and increase inventory turnover by 2 times.

The survival needs of the enterprise itself prompt the enterprise to pay more attention to supply
chain management, and actively seek to improve the supply chain according to changes in
customer demand, globalization, competition, information and communication, policies and the
continuous environment, to improve the competitiveness of the enterprise.

1. Handling Raw Material Limitations

The supply of raw materials is one of the supply chain problems that JoeCobra Cycle World
experience. Such as the scarcity of raw materials, long production times, price increases, and
difficulties in the delivery of raw materials.

This can be caused by a sudden increase in demand from consumers. Expand the reach of
resources from vendors. That way, companies will have many options to meet the needs of
consumers.

2. Increase in Shipping Costs and Cargo Prices

With the changing behavior of the community in shopping, the use of e-commerce has increased
rapidly. This kind of shopping behavior will directly increase the demand for imported goods.
Many cargoes cannot operate to send goods so we need to expand the network to get an
alternative.

3. Difficulty Forecasting

Forecasting is the process of estimating and predicting raw materials that must be provided in
order to meet consumer demand. With high demand fluctuations, it is very difficult to get
accurate data to use as a spending estimate.

Therefore, the company will be vulnerable to a shortage or excess of raw materials. To increase
the accuracy of the forecasting results, our team use automation in the calculation and data
collection. So that the estimated data that is worked on is no longer based on instinct.
4. Delivery Congestion

Congestion at the port is one of the biggest problems in the supply chain. Since the pandemic,
many workforce reductions and the culture of social distancing have become the two main
factors in this congestion.

In this problem, punctuality becomes a sacrifice from the supply chain. Improve the agreement
with the consumer by making a disclaimer from the beginning of the order in order to minimize
conflict.

5. Prediction of Future Conditions

In JoeCobra Cycle World, we avoid making decisions based on instinct. As much as possible,
leverage data through process automation to maintain a balance between demand, warehouse
stock, and total raw material spend.

In order to create a good business ecosystem, promulge provides opportunities for managers to
learn omnichannel (offline cooperation with online), cooperation, disintermediation (producer
as well as retailer), and resource sharing through the Supply Chain Management program to
create a better system.

JOECOBRA CYCLE WORLD DASHBOARD

At JoeCobra Cycle World, we have evaluated several visuals that can help us in order to further
expand the product ranges that can have a large impact on the company's profit projections. In
addition, to the visuals used through the Business Intelligence Application, we can also identify
weaknesses in several factors that we may be able to fix it immediately.

Business intelligence dashboards are information management and data visualization solutions
used to analyze your data. Content creators can use interactive elements like filters and actions
to combine charts, graphs and reports in a single screen for snapshot overviews. Dashboards
are one of the most popular capabilities of BI platforms because they present easily
understandable data analysis, allow you to customize which information you want to view, and
provide a way to share the results of your analysis with others.[8]
 Illustration 4: JoeCobra Cycle World Dashboard of Total Sales in Power BI
In the dashboard shows the total sales of JoeCobra Cycle World consists of 4 main category
product sold from our company. The largest sales is from bike product which contain of 3 type
of bike, Roadbike, Mauntain Bike and Touring Bike. Second largest contribution of total sales
is came from componest category of product. In this category, we sell the compartment of all
type of bicycle from brake, gear, cable, wheels, frame and others. The third largest contribution
of our total sales is cam from clothing. It is consists of jersey, gloves, short, cap, tights and caps.
And the last category, which contribute the lowest from total sales is bike accesorries. In contain
of water bottle, bike wash syampoo, rack and pump.

Illustration 5: JoeCobra Cycle World Dashboard of Total Sales in RoadBike Product Category
The trend in which the hobby of cycling began to grow in all corners of the world has made it
very popular because it can fit into our lifestyle. Many people adapt to their daily routine,
replacing public transport with bicycles to save serious money and be fit at the same time. Those
who live in the city may find that cycling is easier than driving because there is no traffic jam
and there is no problem with finding expensive parking. From this situation, the sales in
JoeCobra Cycle World had increase especially from the bike product.

From the various type of bike, Road bike is the largest sales contribution. In general, a road
bike is a type of bicycle to be ridden on smooth asphalt roads. Road bikes are generally designed
with a light frame, and have small and smooth wheels. The basic design of the road bike with
a light frame and thin tires was developed in the 19th century. The components have undergone
development, but the frame and wheels are still maintained.

Form the graph, it shows that Total sales of Road bike is 28.6m, the largest compare to
Mountain and Touring Bike. It contribute of 44.7% from total sales in Bike category.

For Mountain bike, the sales also have shown an increasing and nearly to road bike sales.
Mountain Biking is a sport that consists of cycling through Off-road or rugged roads (such as
forests, hills, etc.). Usually users call them Mountain Bikes (MTB). Mountain Bikes are just the
same as regular bikes, but they are made more resistant than usual because the manufacturing
features are more geared towards durability that is suitable for harsh conditions.

Form the graph, it shows that Total sales of Mountain bike is 25.8m and the 2nd largest after
Road Bike. It contribute of 40.3% from total sales in Bike category.
What a touring bike means is pedaling a bike with a traditional rack system attached to the bike,
with rear and sometimes front panniers and handlebar bags. Touring bikes are equipped with
all the necessary equipment to adequately travel the world. This type of cycling tends to involve
a heavier bike assembly, with a more hybrid style of bike parts where the tires are more road
oriented. Potential to carry almost all necessary equipment. Traveling with a touring bike
usually takes the rider from road to road.

Form the graph, it shows that Total sales of Touring bike is only 9.5m and the smallest
contribution in bike category of Total Sales. It contribute only 14.8% from total sales in Bike
category.

Illustration 6: JoeCobra Cycle World Dashboard of Total Sales in Component Category

A number that speaks for itself: JoeCobra Cycle World offer more than 100 items. We have a
huge selection of excellent parts and components for all kinds of bikes. Whether mountain bike,
trekking or touring bike, e-bike, road bike, triathlon or time trial machine, if cyclyst need to
replace wearing parts or want to upgrade bike to make it fit for new challenges, they will find
everything need in our shop. Sales for bike component shows only around 10% from the Total
Sales made by the company. The sales amount was significat to the sales from the bike which
demanding from upgrading needs of the cyclist to their bike.
 Illustration 7: JoeCobra Cycle World Dashboard of Total Sales in Clothing Category

Illustration 8: JoeCobra Cycle World Dashboard of Total Sales in Accessories Category

JOECOBRA CYCLE WORLD DASHBOARD IMPACT
The result were present based on the dashboard conducted in descriptive and predictive
analytics design that will give an impact to the JoeCobra Cycle World which could achieve the
bussiness objetives and meet our stakeholder’s expectation.

Sales Perfomance Analysis

Illustration 9: JoeCobra Cycle World Sales Performance

Through the analysis of each product sales, JoeCobra Cycle World focus on production
companies can be made products, market share, market share is an important indicator of market
competitiveness. Meanwhile, JoeCobra Cycle World also use the sales analysis of various
products in the market growth rate, the market growth rate is an important indicator of product
development potential. According to market growth and relative market share, we can roughly
understand the contribution of the product to the enterprise, companies can accordingly take
the same product sales strategy as appropriate.

Sales growth also known as market share refers to a period of time, product sales in the market,
or the share of sales contributing to the total sales of the same product or total sales. When the
market share is high, indicating that we have a clear advantage in the market, the have the ability
to adapt to a strong market; when market share is low, indicating that in the market where the
weakness of weak ability to adapt to the market. However, this indicator does not reflect the
comparison of competitors, JoeCobra Cycle World use a low market share to show that the
company's market competitive position and competitive strength.
Internet Sales Vs Reseller Sales

Illustration 10: JoeCobra Cycle World Order Quantity

In a world surrounded by the advancement of science and technology, we can enjoy various
conveniences as a result of innovation and technology applications in our daily lives. The
evolution of telephones to cell phones and then to smartphones has changed the landscape of
today's society where everything moves fast and short. Like mushrooms grow after rain, so is
the use of applications on smartphones where various applications are introduced including
online business. With just an Internet connection, online business or known as e-commerce
allows anyone to do virtual buying and selling. Therefore, it is appropriate for us to discuss the
advantages of online business to consumers and merchants.

Among the benefits that users get when making purchases online is that they can save the user's
time. Congestion factors in shopping malls and supermarkets have made consumers switch to
online business. Users don't have to struggle to find an area to park their vehicle, line up to
make payments or fight for limited items. Online shopping gives users a completely different
experience because they are free to browse and find items that suit their needs. Payment is also
easy with today's internet banking technology that only requires the user to go through the
verification and authentication process. This efficient, safe and easy logistics facility has
become the new norm in a society where the use of time is important like the Malay proverb,
time is gold.

Today, with nearly half the world's population wired to the internet, the ever-increasing
connectivity has created global shifts in strategic thinking and positioning, disrupting industry
after industry, sector after sector. Seemingly, with each passing day, some new technological
tool emerges that revolutionizes our lives, further deepening and embedding our dependence
on the world wide web.[9]
 Illustration 11: JoeCobra Cycle World Profit between Internet Sales and Reseller Sales
JoeCobra Cycle World can also market our products to the global market by doing business
online. Unlimited access to the Internet has made the process of globalization of the world
society faster. As a result, Internet sales has become a major contributor in profit segment for
the company. Its show in the Illustration 10, Internet Sales can reach the profit more than
reseller sales. The series of scenarios, local entrepreneurs need to raise the level of their
business to be in line with the ranks of entrepreneurs around the world to break into the global
market. Furthermore, social media has also become an online business medium that makes it
easier for global consumers to buy.

Illustration 12: JoeCobra Cycle Total Reseller Sales Vs Internet Sales

However, sales through resellers still maintain a large impact in the overall sales volume for
the company. 72% of JoeCobra Cycle World's sales are from resellers. This means, 3/4 of
JoeCobra Cycle World's customers are still in the category of face-to-face purchases at stores
that distribute our products. The development of reseller sales is still dependent on loyal
customers by giving recommendations to the new line of product in addition to giving emphasis
to new customers to attract interest in products produced by JoeCobra Cycle World.

Retail store business is mostly focused on cash sales transactions. Purchases of goods from
suppliers are made in cash and also in debt. Another important aspect in the retail store business
is the management of the stock of goods sold. Efficient stock management of goods is important
to ensure that the goods that many customers want are available in sufficient quantities. On the
other hand, less well-received items should be held in reasonable numbers, just not to disappoint
a few customers. Shopkeepers should understand that the stock of goods has a direct impact on
the profit and loss of a retail store.

Small retail store owners constantly considering retail products to prevent wastage of goods.
The existence of retail stores depends on providing quality products with satisfactory service.
One of the basic issues of retail stores is that the goods expire due to unknowing their expiration
dates. This is a key factor in consumer decision-making and can lead to a drop in wholesale
consumption as well as a loss to many retailers. Retailers sell both packaged and
unpackaged goods. Retailers have to pay close attention to their expiration dates as
they do not record the expiration dates on unpackaged items. Assessing upcoming
purchases and moving on to purchases can help the retailer avoid unnecessarily
stockpiling items. They should also be sold quickly before they expire. The above
problem can often occur in small retail stores because many small retail stores sell
their products under the “First in first out” method. In the Fist In-First-Out system,
retailers do not pay attention to expiration dates as the goods are sold in the order in
which they were stored.[10]

Overall Performance

Illustration 13: JoeCobra Cycle Order Quantity by Sales Territory Region

The most highest order in JoeCobra Cycle World were recorded in 2018 and 2019 are in Canada
Region and Southwest region. It is becouse the impact from the promotion campaign and good
marketing strategy that allowed generating more revenue due to increased sales volume in the
short run. To make more revenue income for the company, the sales team is focusing on to the
customer by offering a very best price for the certain product.
The high order increase in Canada and Southwest region is due to the well-managed supply
chain factor in the region. Supply chain management implemented by JoeCobra Cycle World
is more dynamic than traditional logistics management and can bring great benefits to supply
chain members. However, to successfully implement supply chain management, there must be
good information sharing among supply chain members; And it is not easy for enterprises
pursuing different goals to achieve open and honest information sharing, especially when a
company cooperates with many of its competitors, it is more difficult to achieve information
sharing. Therefore, successful supply chain integration requires first of all that all node
enterprises agree on the following aspects: jointly recognize the level of end customer service
demand, jointly determine the inventory location in the supply chain and the amount of
inventory at each inventory Point, jointly formulate policies and procedures, etc. to manage
supply keys as an entity.

JOECOBRA CYCLE WORLD STRATEGY

Predictive Modelling
When Joecobra Cycle World produces a sales forecast, we can estimate the figure of what we
expect sales results to look like. It estimates how much of a product we can sell in a period of
time, such as a month, quarter, or year. Some of the best sales forecasters can predict revenue
with a good degree of accuracy depending on the inputs and the time frame of the forecast.

Predictive analytics is the use of data, statistical algorithms and machine learning techniques to
identify the likelihood of future outcomes based on historical data. The goal is to go beyond
knowing what has happened to providing a best assessment of what will happen in the future.[11]

The demand for a product in a company is strongly influenced by various environmental factors
that interact in the market that are beyond the control of the company. Where environmental
factors will also affect forecasting. The demand for a product on a company is the resultant of
the various factors that interact with each other in the market. These factors are almost always
a force that is beyond the control of the company.[12]

Our sales team forecasts using data from previous performance, and sales forecasting
techniques differ based on the inputs. For example, predictions may be made based on the
intuition of a sales representative or using data and trends fed into artificial intelligence. Sales
forecasts made by sales representatives are used by managers to estimate the business brought
in by the team. Forecast data from the team is used by the director to anticipate sales by
department and the VP of sales uses collective data from the department to project sales for the
organization.

Forecasting creates a reference point for the future that companies can rely on to make important
business decisions. Accurate forecasting also makes the company a market leader and provides
credibility in the industry. Here are some of the ways sales forecasting affects a company's
functioning:
1. Strategic decision making
Sales forecasting can reveal emerging trends and prompt decision makers to correct
problems or capitalize on foreseeable opportunities. For example, a negative 30%
deviation from sales targets may reveal poor management or an underperforming sales
unit or even indicate competitors are upping their game. Conversely, a positive deviation
would indicate the need to recruit more resources to take advantage of the opportunity.
Forecasting sets a baseline, which helps in timely action and course correction.

2. Drawing a path forward

Predictions become very useful during times of poor performance. It allows decision
makers to draw clearer lines and set better goals to reduce damage and also motivate the
team through milestones and action plans.

3. Financial decision making

Accurate sales forecasting plays an important role in different financial modeling
exercises. They determine:
• Inventory: Accurate sales forecasts are made through informed assumptions
about consumer buying habits or seasonal increases or decreases in demand.
This forecast helps in planning and inventory management, which contributes to
the efficient use of working capital. This efficiency then extends to better
planning and procurement of raw materials.
• Cash Flow: Cash flow is directly affected by sales revenue. Accurate sales
forecasting can help model cash flows that allow companies to plan for any
shortfalls or downturns in the future.

A good sales forecast is very accurate and easy to understand by different stakeholders. It also
balances the time, effort, and cost associated with forecasting techniques. Ideally, accurate
forecasting models should be built with reliable economic methods. A predictive model should
use algorithms that are well tuned to the business and select relevant data with little manual
intervention to make accurate predictions.

A sales forecast predicts the value of sales over a period of time. It becomes the basis of
marketing mix and sales planning. Sales forecasting is crucial because without a proper
sales forecast a company cannot program to attain the desired sales and marketing objectives.
It is based on a number of assumptions regarding customer and competitor behavior as
well as the market environment, and therefore, its reliability depends upon a number of
uncertain parameters.[13]

However, realistic predictions are more subjective and time-consuming. Aside from the existing
numbers, it becomes important to consider the sales rep's assessment of future performance.
This perception can vary significantly from one sales representative to another, depending on
their approach and experience.
Illustration 14: JoeCobra Cycle sales amount in Bike Category Predictive Model
From illustration 14, it can be seen that the projected increase in category bike sales will
increase in Internet sales method. A significant change will occur when the buying trend from
JoeCobra Cycle World customers shifts to online sales compare to sales from resellers.

Various advantages will gain as a result of online business for JoeCobra Cycle World
consumers and merchants. From our point of view, the advantage of doing business online is
that it provides a lower risk for doing business. This is because company do not need to incur
costs to rent business premises and hire employees at a more optimal rate compared to
conventional businesses. The cost of starting a conventional business is usually higher but the
cost of renting a shop, renovating a building, wages of employees and others can be reduced
through an online business. On the other hand, company need high communication skills to
maintain relationships with customers and expect the delivery service used to do a good job.
Online business management is also safer and easier to manage. All information and
transactions that take place are recorded and can be reviewed for audit purposes and so on. It is
clear that online business offers a risk advantage to JoeCobra Cycle World.
Illustration 15: JoeCobra Cycle sales amount in Component Category Predictive Model

Illustration 15: JoeCobra Cycle sales amount in Clothing Category Predictive Model
For the category component and clothing, the prediction shows horizontal projection in both
Internet Sales and Reseller Sales. Company need to come out with solution on boosting the
volume of sales of these 2 categories by giving promotion and improve marketing strategy.
Illustration 15: JoeCobra Cycle sales amount in Accessories Category Predictive Model
According to the observations carried out based on the projections made in illustration 15, for
the accessory’s category, JoeCobra Cycle World customers prefer to make purchases directly
at stores that distribute our products. This is because users prefer to match bicycle accessories
that are suitable and match with their gear. Therefore, online purchases will be less popular less
popular now and, in the future.

To attract customer to buy our accessories, a promotion like buy 1 free 1 or discount and offers
will only grab the attention of price-sensitive customers, but for our regular customer, they will
be excited only to a new product launch.

The word sales promotion is made of two words, i.e., Sales + Promotion. Sales mean to charge
the cost and hand over the goods and services. Promotion means expanding the sales.
Accordingly, sales promotion is a continuous cycle to build the deal. Thus, any interaction
designed to make a deal is a sales promotion. Whenever a retailer gives a schedule or some
other gift to his client, he follows sales promotion. Sales promotion incorporates this large
number of exercises (aside from advertising, exposure and individual selling) which draw in
both the merchants and consumers towards goods and services of the undertaking so the sales
of the venture might increase. Through viable advertisement work, sales promotion assists sales
people with supporting upselling. Producers can present new items by sales promotion. It
reminds the consumers about the object through advertisement. [14]
Linear Regression

Linear Regression analysis is one of the methods that implemented by sales team of JoeCobra
Cycle World used to predict in sales. The main purpose of this regression analysis is to see the
causal relationship between one variable and another. The causal variable from the regression
is also known as variable X, explanatory variable or independent variable. While the affected
variable is known as Y variable, influenced variable, dependent variable, or bound variable.

This form of analysis estimates the coefficients of the linear equation, involving one or more
independent variables that best predict the value of the dependent variable. Linear regression
fits a straight line or surface that minimizes the discrepancies between predicted and actual
output values. There are simple linear regression calculators that use a “least squares” method
to discover the best-fit line for a set of paired data. You then estimate the value of X (dependent
variable) from Y (independent variable).[15]

Some of the advantages of regression analysis for JoeCobra Cycle World are as follows:

1. Ease of use - quite simple and easy to understand, but still produces powerful insight.

2. Determining the Strength of a Predictor - Regression analysis can identify how much
influence the predictor variable (independent variable) has on other variables
(dependent variable).

3. Can Predict Future Trends - Another advantage of this method is that it can be used to
predict future values. This is in line with the function of regression analysis that can be
used for forecasting and prediction.
RECOMMENDATION

Strengthening the Supply Chain Management

From the perspective of inventory management and supply logistics, in supply chain
management, JoeCobra Cycle World is coordinated among supply chain members to minimize
investment and inventory costs; While traditional logistics management is to push inventory
forward or backward, depending on who has the most initiative in the supply chain. In fact,
traditional logistics management pushes inventory to suppliers and reduces inventory
investment in channels, only shifting inventory. The solution to this problem is to reduce
uncertainty by providing information on production planning, such as sharing information on
expected demand, orders, production planning, etc., and making safety stock lower.

For JoeCobra Cycle World, supply chain management is implemented because supply chain
management is more dynamic than traditional logistics management and can bring great
benefits to supply chain members. However, to successfully implement supply chain
management, there must be good information sharing among supply chain members; And it is
not easy for enterprises pursuing different goals to achieve open and honest information sharing,
especially when a company cooperates with many of its competitors, it is more difficult to
achieve information sharing. Therefore, successful supply chain integration requires first of all
that all node enterprises agree on the following aspects:
• jointly recognize the level of JoeCobra Cycle World customer service demand,
• jointly determine the inventory location in the supply chain and the amount of inventory
at each inventory point,
• jointly formulate policies and procedures, etc. to manage supply keys as an entity.

Supply Chain Integration

Great supply chain management allows JoeCobra Cycle World to:
• Save management time
• Release assets
• Run operations faster and more flexibly
• Remove the residue
• Measuring quality
• Develop and implement continuous improvement strategies
• Achieve excellence in customer service
CONCLUSION

For JoeCobra Cycle World, predictive analytics can be defined as a fundamental paradigm shift
for sales and profit infrastructure analysis. It makes future predictions for JoeCobra Cycle
World that significantly improve the decision-making process by using Business Intelligence
Software. This technique uses existing data to make predictions about the future. It involves the
study of current events and historical sales data of JoeCobra Cycle World. Typically, this data
can be used for network capacity planning purposes. This kind of network intelligence plays an
important role in the Operational Management of decision-making process for our company.

Predictive analytics goes beyond the typical network monitoring paradigm with the use of
historical machine data to provide actionable dashboards for predictable future sales operations.
This can help sales and marketing departments of JoeCobra Cycle World detect anomalies and
avoid future congestion of sales. The traditional method is to set threshold alerts to get timely
updates.

From the data and visualization, JoeCobra Cycle World can avoid mistakes caused by
inaccurate data analysis. When sales show strong month-on-month growth in certain regions,
we can agree on additional shifts in near real-time to ensure our factory can meet demand.
Likewise, we can quickly stop or control the same production, for example when weather
conditions start to affect sales. Controlling this production is one example of how business
intelligence can increase profits and reduce costs when used correctly.
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