Anderson Sweeney Williams Anderson Sweeney Williams
Anderson Sweeney Williams Anderson Sweeney Williams
Anderson Sweeney Williams Anderson Sweeney Williams
QUANTITATIVE
METHODS FOR
BUSINESS 8e
Slide 2
Body of Knowledge
Slide 3
Problem Solving and Decision Making
Slide 4
Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making
Slide 5
Quantitative Analysis
Slide 6
Model Development
Slide 7
Advantages of Models
Slide 8
Mathematical Models
Slide 9
Mathematical Models
Slide 10
Transforming Model Inputs into Output
Uncontrollable Inputs
(Environmental Factors)
Controllable
Mathematical Output
Inputs
Model (Projected Results)
(Decision Variables)
Slide 11
Example: Project Scheduling
Slide 12
Example: Project Scheduling
Question:
How could management science be used to solve
this problem?
Answer:
Management science can provide a structured,
quantitative approach for determining the minimum
project completion time based on the activities' normal
times and then based on the activities' expedited
(reduced) times.
Slide 13
Example: Project Scheduling
Question:
What would be the uncontrollable inputs?
Answer:
• Normal and expedited activity completion times
• Activity expediting costs
• Funds available for expediting
• Precedence relationships of the activities
Slide 14
Example: Project Scheduling
Question:
What would be the decision variables of the
mathematical model? The objective function? The
constraints?
Answer:
• Decision variables: which activities to expedite and
by how much, and when to start each activity
• Objective function: minimize project completion
time
• Constraints: do not violate any activity precedence
relationships and do not expedite in excess of the
funds available.
Slide 15
Example: Project Scheduling
Question:
Is the model deterministic or stochastic?
Answer:
Stochastic. Activity completion times, both
normal and expedited, are uncertain and subject to
variation. Activity expediting costs are uncertain.
The number of activities and their precedence
relationships might change before the project is
completed due to a project design change.
Slide 16
Example: Project Scheduling
Question:
Suggest assumptions that could be made to
simplify the model.
Answer:
Make the model deterministic by assuming normal
and expedited activity times are known with certainty
and are constant. The same assumption might be made
about the other stochastic, uncontrollable inputs.
Slide 17
Data Preparation
Slide 18
Model Solution
Slide 19
Computer Software
Slide 20
Model Testing and Validation
Slide 21
Report Generation
Slide 22
Implementation and Follow-Up
Slide 23
Example: Austin Auto Auction
Slide 24
Example: Austin Auto Auction
Question:
Develop the mathematical model that will give the
starting bid (B ) for a car in terms of the car's original
price (P ), current age (A) and mileage (M ).
Answer:
The expected winning bid can be expressed as:
P - 800(A) - .025(M )
The entire model is:
B = .7(expected winning bid) or
B = .7(P - 800(A) - .025(M )) or
B = .7(P )- 560(A) - .0175(M )
Slide 25
Example: Austin Auto Auction
Question:
Suppose a four-year old car with 60,000 miles on
the odometer is up for auction. If its original price was
$12,500, what starting bid should the auctioneer
require?
Answer:
B = .7(12,500) - 560(4) - .0175(60,000) = $5460.
Slide 26
Example: Austin Auto Auction
Question:
The model is based on what assumptions?
Answer:
The model assumes that the only factors
influencing the value of a used car are the original
price, age, and mileage (not condition, rarity, or other
factors).
Also, it is assumed that age and mileage devalue a
car in a linear manner and without limit. (Note, the
starting bid for a very old car might be negative!)
Slide 27
Example: Iron Works, Inc.
Slide 28
Example: Iron Works, Inc.
Mathematical Model
• The total monthly profit =
(profit per unit of product 1)
x (monthly production of product 1)
+ (profit per unit of product 2)
x (monthly production of product 2)
= p1x1 + p2x2
We want to maximize total monthly profit:
Max p1x1 + p2x2
Slide 29
Example: Iron Works, Inc.
Slide 30
Example: Iron Works, Inc.
Slide 31
Example: Iron Works, Inc.
Slide 32
Example: Iron Works, Inc.
Question:
Suppose b = 2000, a1 = 2, a2 = 3, m = 60, u = 720, p1
= 100, p2 = 200. Rewrite the model with these specific
values for the uncontrollable inputs.
Answer:
Substituting, the model is:
Max 100x1 + 200x2
s.t. 2x1 + 3x2 < 2000
x1 > 60
x2 < 720
x2 > 0
Slide 33
Example: Iron Works, Inc.
Question:
The optimal solution to the current model is x1 = 60
and x2 = 626 2/3. If the product were engines, explain
why this is not a true optimal solution for the "real-life"
problem.
Answer:
One cannot produce and sell 2/3 of an engine.
Thus the problem is further restricted by the fact that
both x1 and x2 must be integers. They could remain
fractions if it is assumed these fractions are work in
progress to be completed the next month.
Slide 34
Example: Iron Works, Inc.
Uncontrollable Inputs
$100 profit per unit Prod. 1
$200 profit per unit Prod. 2
2 lbs. steel per unit Prod. 1
3 lbs. Steel per unit Prod. 2
2000 lbs. steel allocated
60 units minimum Prod. 1
720 units maximum Prod. 2
0 units minimum Prod. 2
Slide 37
Example: Ponderosa Development Corp.
Question:
Identify all costs and denote the marginal cost and
marginal revenue for each house.
Answer:
The monthly salaries total $35,000 and monthly
office lease and supply costs total another $5,000. This
$40,000 is a monthly fixed cost.
The total cost of land, material, labor, and sales
commission per house, $105,000, is the marginal cost for
a house.
The selling price of $115,000 is the marginal
revenue per house.
Slide 38
Example: Ponderosa Development Corp.
Question:
Write the monthly cost function c (x), revenue
function r (x), and profit function p (x).
Answer:
c (x) = variable cost + fixed cost = 105,000x + 40,000
r (x) = 115,000x
p (x) = r (x) - c (x) = 10,000x - 40,000
Slide 39
Example: Ponderosa Development Corp.
Question:
What is the breakeven point for monthly sales of
the houses?
Answer:
r (x ) = c (x ) or 115,000x = 105,000x + 40,000
Solving, x = 4.
Question:
What is the monthly profit if 12 houses per month
are built and sold?
Answer:
p (12) = 10,000(12) - 40,000 = $80,000 monthly profit
Slide 40
Example: Ponderosa Development Corp.
1000
Total Revenue = 115,000x Total Cost =
800
40,000 + 105,000x
600
Break-Even Point = 4 Houses
400
200
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number of Houses Sold (x)
Slide 41
The End of Chapter 1
Slide 42
What Is Break Even Analysis?
Break-even analysis uses a calculation called the break even point (BEP)
which provides a dynamic overview of the relationships among revenues,
costs, and profits. More specifically, it looks at a company’s fixed costs in
relation to profits that are earned from each unit sold.
Typical variable and fixed costs differ widely among industries. This is why
comparison of break-even points is generally most meaningful among
companies within the same industry. The definition of a 'high' or 'low' break-
even point should be made within this context.
The following formula can be used to calculate the number of units that a
business needs to sell in order to break even:
Fixed Costs
Fixed costs do not change with the quantity of output. In other words,
they’re not affected by sales. Examples include rent and insurance
premiums, as well as fees paid for marketing or loan payments.
Variable Costs
Contribution Margin
The contribution margin is the amount remaining (i.e. the excess) after total
variable costs are deducted from a product’s selling price.
Say that an item sells for $5,000 and your total variable costs are $3,000
per unit. Your contribution margin would be $2,000 (after subtracting
$3,000 from $5,000). This is the revenue that’ll be used to cover your fixed
costs – which isn’t considered when calculating the contribution margin.
Earned Profit
Earned profit is the amount a business earns after taking into account all
expenses. You can calculate this number by subtracting the costs that go
into your company’s operations from your sales.
Example of Break Even Analysis
In this break even analysis sample, Restaurant ABC only sells pepperoni
pizza. Its variable expenses for each pizza include:
Flour: $0.50
Yeast: $0.05
Water: $0.01
Cheese: $3.00
Pepperoni: $2.00
Labor: $1,500
Rent: $3,000
Insurance: $200
Advertising: $500
Utilities: $450
Let’s say that each pizza is sold for $10.00. Therefore the contribution
margin is $4.44 ($10.00 - $5.56).
To determine the number of pizzas (or units) Restaurant ABC needs to sell,
take its fixed costs and divide them by the contribution margin:
This means the restaurant needs to sell at least 1,272.53 pizzas (rounded
up to 1,273 whole pizzas), to cover its monthly fixed costs. Or, the
restaurant needs to have at least $12,730 in sales (1,272.5 x $10) to reach
the break-even point.
Note: If your product must be sold as whole units, you should always round
up to find the break-even point.
Some fixed costs increase after a certain level of revenue is reached. For
example, if Restaurant ABC begins selling 5,000 pizzas per month – rather
than 2,000 – it might need to hire a second manager, thus increasing labor
costs.
UNIVERSITY OF BATANGAS
What is/are Statistics?
In Singular sense
Statistics means the art or science which is concerned
with the collection, presentation, and analysis of
quantitative data so that intelligent judgment may be
formed upon them.
In Plural sense
Statistics means information useful to decision makers
such as statistics on employment and unemployment,
or vital statistics on births, deaths and marriages.
What is a Statistic?
I HOPE
THIS ISN’T
STATISTICS
Statistical analysis
A variable is a characteristic of an
observation that we can classify into at
least two categories
1) basket weaving
2) poultry,
3) piggery; and
4) sari-sari store
Data and Observe Value
When the value of the variable is observed
and recorded, it is known as an observed
value.
The set of observed values is denoted by the
plural noun data.
Types of Data Collection
Objective Method
Subjective
Method
Use of Existing
Records
Summary Measures
Percentile Kurtosis
Maximum Range
Quartile
Minimum Coefficient of
Decile
Variance Variation
Central
Tendency Interquartile
Range
Mean Mode
Standard Deviation
Median
Properties of the Mean
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 14
Mean = 5
Mean = 6
Median
Divides the observations into two equal
parts
If n is odd, the median is the middle
number.
If n is even, the median is the average of the
2 middle numbers.
Properties of a Median
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 14
Median = 5
Mode
o occurs most frequently
o nominal average
o computation of the mode for ungrouped or raw
data
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
No Mode
Mode = 9
Properties of a Mode
Data A
Mean = 15.5
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
s = 3.338
Data B
Mean = 15.5
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 s = .9258
R = 85 - 54 = 31
Some Properties of the Range
o The larger the value of the range, the
more dispersed the observations are.
Data: 10 12 14 15 17 18 18 24
(10 16) 2 (12 16) 2 (14 16) 2 (15 16) 2 (17 16) 2 (18 16) 2 ( 24 16) 2
s
7
4.309
Remarks on SD
Data A
Mean = 15.5
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 s = 3.338
Data B
Mean = 15.5
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 s = .9258
Data C
Mean = 15.5
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 s = 4.57
Comparing SDs
Mean = 65
S =0
65 “ 65 “ 65 “ 65 “ 65 “
Comparing SDs
Mean = 65”
s = 4.0”
62 “ 67 “ 66 “ 70 “ 60 “
Properties of SD
It is the most widely used measure of dispersion.
SD
CV 100%
Mean
Comparing CVs
3Mean Median
SK
SD
What is Symmetry?
A distribution is said to be
symmetric about the mean, if
the distribution to the left of
mean is the “mirror image” of
the distribution to the right of
the mean. Likewise, a
symmetric distribution has
SK=0 since its mean is equal to
its median and its mode.
Measure of Skewness
SK < 0
positively skewed
SK < 0
negatively skewed
Measure of Kurtosis
Describes the extent of peakedness or flatness of the
distribution of the data
X
4
i
K i 1
4
3
N
Measure of Kurtosis
K=0
mesokurtic
K>0 K<0
leptokurtic platykurtic