WEDNESDAY 10 MAY 2023 NATIONAL NEWSPAPER OF THE YEAR UK £3.50; Republic of Ireland €3.

90

Is Erdoğan’s hold on power slipping? The pandemic was a test of human spirit
BIG READ, PAGE 21 JANAN GANESH, PAGE 23

Show of force Briefing

Kyiv counters i Sunak suffers setback

Putin’s blows
after missing NHS target
No 10’s plan to double down on its
policy priorities after the Tories’
poor local election results have
Russian paratroopers march through been hit after it said a goal on NHS
Red Square during a Victory Day parade waiting lists was missed.— PAGE 2
in Moscow yesterday.
Speaking at a scaled-back military i Spotify purges AI songs
display to celebrate 78 years since the The music-streaming service has
Soviet Union’s second world war victory, removed thousands of songs from
President Vladimir Putin vowed to con- AI start-up Boomy, beefing up the
tinue his war in Ukraine as Russian policing of its platform after
forces launched more attacks on Kyiv. complaints of fraud.— PAGE 9
Volodymyr Zelenskyy hit back, say-
ing that the mostly intercepted missiles i Activision taps top lawyer
were an attempt by Putin to show some Activision Blizzard has hired legal
military success in his faltering war. heavyweight Lord David Pannick
“Russia . . . needs to sell something to KC to lead its fight against the UK
their society,” the Ukrainian president regulator’s decision to block its
said during a joint news conference with $75bn Microsoft deal.— PAGE 12
European Commission president Ursula
von der Leyen, who had arrived in Kyiv i Khan held in Pakistan
by train shortly after the missile strikes. Former premier Imran Khan,
She added that Russia had “already who faces corruption charges, has
dramatically failed”, while Ukraine was been arrested, a move that
“fighting back successfully”. sparked protests amid a highly
Parade speech page 4 charged political climate.— PAGE 8
EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

i Goldman settles lawsuit

The US lender is to pay $215mn to

Blood-scandal compensation scheme

settle a longstanding gender
lawsuit brought by female former
employees who said they were
consistently underpaid.— PAGE 10

expected to cost taxpayer up to £10bn

i Israel braced for reprisals
Air strikes in Gaza that targeted
leaders of the Palestinian Islamic
Jihad group have killed at least
15 people, eight of whom were
women and children.— PAGE 4

3 Public finances face more strain 3 HIV and hepatitis C passed to victims 3 Final report due in autumn Datawatch
GEORGE PARKER — POLITICAL EDITOR finances, officials from the Treasury scandal last month by Sir Brian Lang- would add to the pressures already fac- quickly when the inquiry’s final report is Working lifespans
and the Department of Health have staff, a former judge, who said that ing public services. published in the autumn.” Average years that people aged
The compensation bill for those affected been holding recent talks over how a action was “necessary to alleviate Cabinet Office minister Jeremy Quin The inquiry was announced by then 15-65 are economically active
by the NHS contaminated-blood scan- compensation scheme would be struc- immediate suffering” of those affected. told MPs last month that the govern- prime minister Theresa May in 2017. ASEAN
dal could reach £10bn, according to offi- tured. “We are working through the He noted that many were on “bor- ment would act at “pace” to “deliver res- Infected individuals and bereaved part- APEC
Scandinavia
cials, in a further blow to the UK’s options,” said one government insider. rowed time” after suffering from what olution” but warned that the recom- ners have so far each received an Americas
stretched public finances. Another official added: “People are he said was “the worst treatment disas- mendations needed “careful considera- interim payment of £100,000, leading G7
Ministers have accepted the “moral very worried about the cost.” The gov- ter in the history of the NHS”. tion” and had “financial implications”. to payouts of about £400mn. OECD
case” for compensating families of the ernment declined to comment on the He said a scheme should be set up this He questioned Langstaff’s suggestion About 1,350 people are thought to G20
African Union
victims of the scandal, in which tens of size of the compensation bill. year to compensate those “infected” that the scheme should be run by an have contracted HIV, of whom about EU
thousands of people were infected with The issue is coming to a head follow- and “affected”; the latter group includes arm’s length body, possibly chaired by a 1,000 had died by 2019, according to the 0 10 20 30
HIV and hepatitis C through tainted ing the publication of a report into the spouses, parents of children infected up High Court judge, and said such a move inquiry. A further 26,800 contracted Source: International Longevity Centre
blood transfusions. to the age of 18, siblings who lived with would be a “new departure” from previ- hepatitis C, of whom about 1,820 died
The scandal dates back to the 1970s an infected person, carers, and depend- ous schemes. from causes related to the infection. The EU has the shortest ‘work span’
and 1980s, but ministers are only now The potential level of ants of the deceased. A final report on The government said: “The infected- Langstaff described how victims cam- compared with other areas, partly owing
to the high proportion of people who are
coming to terms with the financial hit.
Government officials have told the
payouts has caused the scandal is due in the autumn.
The potential level of compensation
blood scandal should never have hap-
pened. Sir Brian Langstaff’s interim
paigned for decades to have their voices
heard and said compensation should in education for much of their teens and
Financial Times that the compensation concern. ‘People are very has caused concern in Whitehall. report will help the UK government and also reflect “the wrongs done by author- early 20s. Care-giving, illness and early
retirement further reduce EU work spans
scheme might cost £5bn-£10bn.
Given the tight nature of the public
worried about the cost’ Although the costs would not directly
affect the government’s fiscal rules, they
devolved administrations to meet our
shared objective to be able to respond
ity, whose response served to com-
pound people’s suffering”.

Boom in high-end holidaymakers spurs

airlines to spruce up luxury-class cabins
PHILIP GEORGIADIS — LONDON “This year is the first year all my team levels in February, against an industry-
SARAH WHITE — PARIS
tells me we need to grow first class . . . I wide total of 81 per cent.
Big-spending holidaymakers are spear- never thought I would ever hear that,” The surge in high-end travel comes as
heading a boom in first and business- Spohr said. steep inflation has bitten into household
class flight bookings, leading big air- Ben Smith, chief executive of Air budgets, raising questions over whether
Hauliers find ways to fix lines to bet on a new era of luxury travel France-KLM, said that it was investing demand for flying is sustainable.
shortage of truck drivers with investments in their cabins and to keep up with demand from high-end Gulf carrier Etihad became the latest
lounges. leisure travellers who were “more than airline to announce a significant invest-
Britain’s haulage sector has responded making up” for falling corporate travel. ment in its premium product, launching
to a 2021 labour shortage that brought Lufthansa said this month that the Airlines are hoping to tap into relent- a new business-class suite last week.
the closure of petrol forecourts and “very strongest demand” for travel this less demand for luxury goods and expe- Lufthansa has embarked on a €2.5bn
emptied supermarket shelves by year has been in its premium cabins, riences, which has rebounded rapidly refit of its long-haul cabins, including a
training up an army of homegrown and that leisure travellers have “almost following Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020. new first-class seat, while Australia’s
truck drivers. Industry leaders and completely compensated” for the “[It is] not just us: ask the same ques- Qantas announced a $100mn invest-
logistic trade bodies report that post- slower return of corporate bookings. tion of luxury hotels and business . . . ment in its lounges this year.
Brexit reshaping has meant higher The airline’s chief executive, Carsten the whole sector is doing extremely Nigel Goode, chair of aircraft-interior
costs and wage increases of up to Spohr, said that he expected a “perma- well,” Smith said. designer PriestmanGoode, said demand
30 per cent above pre-pandemic levels nent shift” towards holidaymakers fill- Travel in first and business-class cab- from airline clients was “really picking
but that it has also led to a steadier ing business and first-class seats, as he ins has recovered faster than total pas- up”, adding that they were focused on
pipeline of younger British drivers. drew comparisons with the recent boom senger traffic, according to global air- designing less “opulent” cabins for a
Homegrown army i PAGE 3 enjoyed by luxury sectors, from cars lines body Iata. Premium passenger younger generation of travellers.
and watches to prime real estate. numbers reached 86 per cent of 2019 Ryanair buys Boeings page 10

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2 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Wednesday 10 May 2023

NATIONAL

Policy pledge Local authorities

Sunak suffers NHS waiting list blow Gove to bring

forward ban
on Israel
Minister admits 18-month
target for treatment in
halve inflation, expand the economy,
reduce public debt and “stop the boats”
— a reference to efforts to curb the
promise of the day” after ministers had
earlier appeared to confirm a breach of a
Tory 2019 election manifesto commit-
had fallen by almost a third to just under
30,000.
Downing Street officials said Sunak
if his party fails to win a House of Com-
mons majority at the next general elec-
tion, apparently jettisoning his vow last
boycotts
hospital has been missed number of migrants coming to the UK in ment to recruit 6,000 GPs by 2025. was determined to stick to his five-pri- year not to enter into an accord with
small boats. NHS leaders have sought to place the ority blueprint despite pressure to another political party. GEORGE PARKER — POLITICAL EDITOR
Barclay told MPs yesterday that “18- blame for the missed waiting list goal on change direction from jittery Tory MPs Last week’s local council polls in Eng-
LUCY FISHER AND SARAH NEVILLE Michael Gove is poised to bring forward
month waits [for hospital treatment] strikes by health workers, which have whose alarm level has rocketed after the land suggested Labour was on track to
legislation to stop councils and other
Rishi Sunak’s plan to double down on have decreased by over 90 per cent since party lost about 1,000 councillors in be the biggest party after the general
public bodies boycotting Israel.
his five policy priorities after the Tories’ their peak in September 2021”. England last week. election, but might not get a majority.
dismal local election results suffered a The comment represented a tacit
Some backbench Some backbench Conservatives are Modelling by academics Colin Rall- The communities secretary wants to
setback yesterday as the government admission that the government had Conservatives are pressing pressing for policies to appeal to voters, ings and Michael Thrasher for The Sun- stop public bodies adopting “their own
acknowledged it had missed a target on failed to meet a significant milestone in such as tax cuts, while others want day Times predicted Labour would win foreign policy” and is concerned at the
cutting NHS waiting lists. its plan to cut NHS waiting lists. In Feb-
for policies to appeal to faster progress on Sunak’s core pledges, 298 seats, falling 28 short of a majority, way councils are using their financial
Health secretary Steve Barclay made ruary 2022, as part of a blueprint to voters, such as tax cuts notably to curb migrants crossing the based on the local council polls. power to try to exert influence in the
clear some patients in England had been clear post-Covid hospital treatment English Channel in small boats. Mark Starmer reiterated his opposition to Middle East, say people close to him.
unable to secure hospital treatment backlogs, NHS England said it would led to about 300,000 cancelled opera- Jenkinson, Tory MP for Workington, any coalition with the pro-independ- Ministers are set to approve the bill,
within 18 months, despite the govern- “aim to eliminate waits of over 18 tions and appointments in England. said tackling the small boats was “a big ence Scottish National party. But he promised in the Conservative party’s
ment having a target of no one waiting months by April 2023”. The most recent NHS England per- issue among constituents”. repeatedly refused to rule out a deal 2019 manifesto, that would stop public
that long by April this year. Wes Streeting, Labour’s health formance data showed that at the end of Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer yes- with the Lib Dems, saying he was “aim- bodies in England, Scotland, Wales and
Sunak’s five policy pledges, outlined spokesperson, seized on Barclay’s com- February the number of patients wait- terday refused to rule out a coalition ing for a Labour majority” and did not Northern Ireland bringing in boycott,
in January, are to cut NHS waiting lists, ments to declare “the second broken ing 18 months for hospital treatment government with the Liberal Democrats want to answer “hypotheticals”. divestment and sanctions (BDS) poli-
cies against foreign regimes.
The policy is in its final “write round”
stage, where Gove’s cabinet colleagues
can express a view. But one senior gov-

Asylum plan ernment official said: “We’re expecting

the green light very soon.” Another said:

Giant barge
“It’s full steam ahead.”
According to officials, Gove and
Oliver Dowden, deputy prime minister,

set to house are determined to enact the measure

before the next election.

500 migrants
The communities department said:
“We are firmly opposed to local boy-
cotts, which can damage integration and
community cohesion, hinder exports
and harm our economic security.
The Bibby Stockholm arrives in “The government remains commit-
Falmouth, Cornwall, yesterday where ted to our manifesto pledge to ban pub-
the barge will undergo an assessment lic bodies from imposing their own boy-
and refurbishment. cotts, disinvestment or sanctions cam-
The vessel is expected to house paigns. We will legislate as soon as par-
about 500 migrants and is due to be liamentary time allows.”
moved into position at Portland Port, Gove said last year: “The BDS cam-
Dorset, in a few weeks. paign is designed for only one purpose:
The barge is part of a series of to attack and delegitimise the state of
schemes from the government aimed Israel and the idea that there should be a
at moving asylum seekers away from Jewish state at all.” The Union of Jewish
costly hotel accommodation, which it Students this year passed a conference
says costs the public £6mn a day. motion opposing the bill, arguing: “The
However, Dorset’s police and crime bill, in the name of ‘community cohe-
commissioner has voiced concerns sion’ and purportedly the Jewish com-
about the port’s decision to allow the munity, seeks to impose a sweeping ban
barge to dock. David Sidwick last on public bodies making investment
week called for funding talks with decisions based on considerations such
home secretary Suella Braverman for as human rights.”
the extra policing that will be In the Queen’s Speech last year, minis-
required when the vessel arrives. ters said the Boycotts, Divestment and
Sanctions bill would prevent public bod-
Matt Keeble/PA Wire
ies from engaging in boycotts “that
undermine community cohesion”, leav-
ing sanctions policy to the government.
Public Order Act The government claimed boycotts
“may legitimise and drive antisemitism

London mayor demands review of Met police coronation arrests as these types of campaigns overwhelm-
ingly target Israel” and unduly politicise
public institutions.
Ministers cited motions by Lancaster
city council in support of such cam-
WILLIAM WALLIS AND ROBERT WRIGHT “It is clear that some of the arrests of people had been able to protest dur- tary horses, potentially causing them to concerned” by a “rapidly developing paigns in 2021, and Leicester city coun-
made have given rise to concerns and, in ing the coronation. stampede. intelligence picture” in the run-up to the cil to boycott goods from Israeli settle-
Sadiq Khan has called for an urgent
my oversight role as mayor, I am seeking “The fact that hundreds of people “This was the context — a once in a event. ments in occupied territory in 2014.
review by the Metropolitan Police of
assurance from you that the issues were able to protest is testament to the generation national moment facing spe- As well as the rape alarm plans, he Lisa Nandy, shadow communities sec-
the circumstances around the arrest
related to these will be subject to a right to peaceful protest,” he said. cific intelligence threats about plans to said there had been plans to throw paint retary, has said while Labour opposed
and detention of dozens of protesters
review and lessons learned,” Khan Philp stressed that Met officers had disrupt it,” Philp said. over participants in the coronation pro- Israeli settlements, she did not support
during the coronation of King Charles.
wrote to the commissioner. been extremely concerned about the Rishi Sunak, prime minister, cession. the BDS campaign because it “pushes
The mayor of London’s demand in a let- Khan demanded to know why officers prospect of disorder on the day, includ- defended the new legislation: “It “Clearly, this would not only have people away instead of bringing people
ter to Met police commissioner Sir Mark appeared not to know Republic had ing the use of rape alarms to scare mili- wouldn’t be right for me to interfere been unlawful but also extremely dan- together”. Party leader Sir Keir Starmer
Rowley was backed in parliament by informed the police ahead of their pro- with their operational decisions but it is gerous,” Rowley wrote of the potential has made driving out vestiges of
Joanna Cherry, Scottish National party test. He also asked why the issue had not right for the government to give the for protesters to start a stampede antisemitism a priority, after the Equal-
head of the Commons human rights been resolved more quickly — Graham police the powers to tackle serious dis- among military horses. ity and Human Rights Commission
committee, and other opposition MPs. Smith, Republic’s chief executive, was ruption,” he told broadcasters. The commissioner wrote that among found it had carried out “unlawful acts
The arrests of six members of the anti- detained for 16 hours. A record 11,500 officers were on duty the total of 64 arrests, people were of harassment and discrimination”
monarchy campaign group Republic, In the Commons, Cherry pointed out on Saturday as hundreds of thousands detained for a range of offences, includ- under former leader Jeremy Corbyn.
and three night safety volunteers with that police forces were under an obliga- of people flocked to London to attend ing sex offences, possession of illegal Last year, 22 Labour MPs defied the
Westminster council, on Saturday have tion to protect the right to peaceful the coronation. drugs and violence. party whip to vote against a ban on boy-
caused uproar among opposition politi- protest. The Met on Monday apologised for Dame Diana Johnson, Labour MP for cotts of Israel by public sector pension
cians and human rights groups. “What does a group need to do now to the arrest of Smith and other Republic Kingston upon Hull North, told parlia- funds. John McDonnell, former shadow
They expressed concern that the Pub- clear a protest in advance?” she asked members and said no further action ment that the home affairs committee, chancellor, said he had on “moral
lic Order Act, which came into force policing minister Chris Philp. would be taken against them. which she chairs, would probably initi- grounds” argued against his own pen-
only on May 3, had been used to stifle Philp insisted the Public Order Act But Rowley defended the force’s deci- ate an inquiry into the policing of the sion fund in investing in Saudi Arabia
free speech and crack down on the right was not intended to restrict non-violent Held: an anti-monarchy protester is sions, writing in the Evening Standard coronation and address some of the and China as well as Israel.
to protest. activism and that a substantial number arrested in London on Saturday that officers had become “extremely issues raised. Militants killed in air strikes page 4

Commons report

Defra IT equipment branded ‘outmoded and disconnected’

MAKE A WISE
INVESTMENT PETER FOSTER
PUBLIC POLICY EDITOR
programme that is due to be completed
by 2025. Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown,
ment was struggling to take a strategic
approach to upgrading its applications
told the Financial Times that the
department was becoming “increas-
Subscribe today at The agriculture department is a digital deputy chair of the committee, said partly because it had focused on more ingly dysfunctional”.
ft.com/subscribetoday backwater that is struggling to upgrade Defra’s equipment was “outmoded and urgent areas, “such as implementing the A report published last month by the
ageing computer systems essential for disconnected” and that its upgrade pro- IT systems needed for EU exit”. National Audit Office, parliament’s
the protection of public health and the gramme was “disjointed”. Defra has long been one of Whitehall’s spending watchdog, found “serious
FINANCIAL TIMES Reproduction of the contents of this newspaper in
environment, MPs have warned. “We are facing down rapidly spread- weakest departments, according to sen- weaknesses” in Defra’s administration,
Bracken House, 1 Friday Street, London EC4M 9BT. any manner is not permitted without the publisher’s
prior consent. ing animal diseases, maybe the next ior government officials, and has a sig- particularly due to a backlog of 63
Published by: The Financial Times Limited, The House of Commons public accounts pandemic, with systems that may rely nificant extra workload as a result of reviews of existing green regulations.
Bracken House, 1 Friday Street, ‘Financial Times’ and ‘FT’ are registered trade marks committee today calls for a “complete on moving paper forms around. This Brexit, which has taken the UK out of The committee said that while Defra
London EC4M 9BT. of The Financial Times Limited.
Tel: 020 7873 3000
overhaul” of the Department for Envi- cannot continue,” he said. “It’s time for a the EU’s regulatory umbrella for food argued that fully transforming its digital
Editor: Roula Khalaf The Financial Times and its journalism are subject to ronment, Food and Rural Affairs after complete overhaul at Defra.” and chemical standards. systems could save up to £25mn a year,
a self-regulation regime under the FT Editorial Code issuing a damning report into IT sys- The report also found that the depart- Officials and lobby groups recently the department had received only 58
Subscriptions and Customer Service of Practice: www.ft.com/editorialcode tems at the department, which is per cent of the funding it bid for in the
Tel 0800 028 1407; subscriptions@ft.com;
www.ft.com/subscribenow Reprints responsible for monitoring food safety, Clear-up: 2021 spending review.
Are available of any FT article with your company air and water quality. a National Trust Ruth Chambers, of the Greener UK
Advertising logo or contact details inserted if required (minimum The committee heard that Defra and ranger with birds coalition, which represents 10 of the
Tel: 020 7873 4000; advertising@ft.com order 100 copies).
Letters to the editor its agencies still used paper forms to killed by bird flu at largest conservation groups such as the
letters.editor@ft.com One-off copyright licences for reproduction of FT handle about 14mn transactions a year. Staple Island, off National Trust, said the government
Executive appointments articles are also available. It highlighted that, until recently, sys- Northumberland, would struggle to deliver on key
Tel: 020 7873 4909; www.exec-appointments.com
For both services phone 020 7873 4816, or
tems for uploading test results of tuber- last July. MPs fear projects, such as farming reform, with-
Printed by alternatively, email syndication@ft.com culosis in cattle were so outdated that Defra IT systems out adequate IT in place.
Newsprinters (Broxbourne) Limited, Hertfordshire, vets had to buy old laptops to run the are not good Defra said it had made significant
Newsprinters (Knowsley) Limited, Merseyside, Newspapers support recycling government software. enough to tackle, progress on investing in its digital serv-
Newsprinters (Eurocentral) Glasgow, and Irish Times, The recycled paper content of UK newspapers in
Dublin, Ireland 2018 was 69.2% The committee also found that Defra among other ices, delivering improvements in flood
was struggling to recruit enough things, animal warnings, farming and countryside
© Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2023. All IT technicians and obtain sufficient diseases schemes and the processing of food
rights reserved.
funds for a £726mn modernisation Owen Humphreys/PA
imports and exports.
Wednesday 10 May 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 3

NATIONAL

Haulage industry trains an army of

Equipment faults

Water groups
homegrown drivers to resolve crisis face penalties
for failure
to monitor
Sector has addressed acute post-Brexit staff shortages through higher wages and skills ‘boot camps’
sewage spills
PETER FOSTER — SPALDING
DELPHINE STRAUSS — LONDON GILL PLIMMER
INFRASTRUCTURE CORRESPONDENT
He is only 25 but Lewis Judd looks a nat-
ural at the wheel of a 40-tonne truck, Privatised water and sewage compa-
performing a tricky reversing manoeu- nies will face increased penalties from
vre in the training yard of the East Mid- 2025 for using faulty or broken equip-
lands haulage company where he soon ment to measure pollution from storm
hopes to have a full-time job. overflow pipes, the industry regulator
Under the watchful eye of his instruc- said yesterday.
tor, Judd successfully backs up the cab of
his lorry, bringing tractor and trailer Ofwat, the industry watchdog, also said
together with a satisfying click. If all it would set binding targets for the first
goes to plan, in a month’s time he will be time to force water companies to reduce
driving solo for Lincolnshire-based their sewage spills from storm overflow
company FreshLinc. pipes, which release a mix of rain water
“My dad was a lorry driver so it’s prob- and sewage into public waterways.
ably in the blood,” said Judd, who until a Ofwat can already penalise compa-
few weeks ago was a window cleaner nies for spills from storm overflow pipes
making £10.50 an hour on a zero-hours but the new fines will apply to all dis-
contract. He can now expect to earn a charges that breach targets.
steady £30,000 a year after he qualifies, The measures come as water compa-
rising to £40,000 if he is prepared to do nies struggle to react to public pressure
weekends and overnight trips. after being accused of providing high
Judd will be joining a new post-Brexit dividends and pay packages while pre-
army of homegrown truck drivers that siding over serious pollution failures.
the haulage industry has been forced to The chief executives of Yorkshire
train since an acute driver shortage Water, Thames Water and South West
closed petrol forecourts and emptied Water all agreed yesterday to waive
supermarket shelves in 2021. their bonuses this year amid wide-
Two years on from that crisis, indus- spread criticism of utilities’ failure to
try leaders and logistics trade bodies curb sewage dumping and invest in crit-
report that the crisis has triggered a ical infrastructure.
restructuring of the driver industry Water companies have been responsi-
leading to higher costs and wage ble for monitoring their pollution dis-
increases of 20 per cent to 30 per cent charges since 2009. However, since 2015
above pre-pandemic levels, but also a Wages offered in online job ads for HGV drivers have eased Job openings for HGV drivers are now below pre-pandemic level they have been required to install event
steadier pipeline of younger British from peaks Change in job postings sinc Feb 1 2020, seasonally adjusted (%) duration monitors on overflow pipes,
drivers. Median hourly wage (£)
which record the frequency and time-
“I’m not sure it’s exactly a Brexit ‘suc- 100 span of spills.
cess story’,” said Lee Juniper, Fresh- About 90 per cent of storm overflow
16
Linc’s boss, who has trained nearly 200 pipes have EDMs installed with the
drivers since opening his own on-site 15
50 remainder due by the end of this year.
driver school 18 months ago. “We’ve However, data from the Environment
solved the problem but we’ve had to pay 14 Agency, the pollution watchdog, last
through the nose for it.” 0 year showed many monitors were not
Juniper added that despite higher 13 working. Ofwat said yesterday that
costs the results of the upheaval were about one in six devices worked less
-50
not all bad, with the company reducing 12 than 90 per cent of the time in 2022.
its reliance on often unreliable tempo- In cases when monitors were not
rary agency drivers, leading to easier 11 -100 working, Ofwat said it would assume
staff rota management and less damage 2018 19 20 21 22 23 2020 21 22 23 spills from the site were twice as bad as
to his truck fleet as a result of better Source: Indeed
the current average and penalise com-
driving. panies accordingly.
Although higher wages for drivers will The proposals are out for consultation
have added to the pressures on con- At the wheel: Driving test availability has also house training, Clifford said, encourag- ‘I’m not sure 2021, but were now 34 per cent below and would come into effect in 2025
sumer prices, hauliers also faced similar trainee driver improved, with the Driver and Vehicle ing companies that were reluctant to this pre-pandemic baseline. along with other measures aimed at
or bigger cost pressures in other areas: Lewis Judd is put Standards Agency conducting an aver- invest in training because they feared it’s exactly a Looking to the future, the industry improving the performance of water
repairs, tyres, petrol and the soaring through his age of 9,500 Large Goods Vehicle driving new drivers would be poached by rivals. Brexit has mixed views about how resilient it groups.
price of the AdBlue exhaust fluid paces at tests a month, compared with an aver- Although the Road Haulage Associa- will be when demand picks up, but few Nick Measham, chief executive of
required for diesel engines. FreshLinc in age of around 6,000 a month in 2019, tion and Logistics UK, the trade lobby, “success expect a repeat of the 2021 crisis. campaign group WildFish, called the
Paul Day, managing director of Turn- Spalding. Below, according to the Department for Trans- say there remained a theoretical short- story”. Industry leaders say they still face measures a “step in the right direction”
ers Soham, a Cambridgeshire trucking Lee Juniper port. fall of 50,000 lorry drivers, the driver medium-term vulnerabilities owing to but questioned why they had taken
company with 2,500 lorries who has Charlie Bibby/FT
With HGV training costing between pool has stabilised at around 275,000, We’ve unsociable hours and inadequate road- more than 30 years to deliver since the
also trained many of his own drivers £3,500 and £5,000 a driver, the skills enough to meet current needs. This is solved the side facilities putting off recruits, as well privatisation of the water industry in
having previously relied heavily on boot camp programme has been valua- partly because the haulage industry is as Brexit, which has removed access to a 1989. “All these announcements are
drivers from the EU, said driver supply ble in encouraging young people into no longer racing to keep up with problem flexible pool of EU drivers that previ- great but they are worthless unless the
had stabilised — but with side effects. the trade, according to James Clifford, demand. In the UK, as elsewhere, con- but we’ve ously provided a buffer at peak periods government and the regulators enforce
“The cost implications of huge pay chief executive of HGVC, a training pro- sumers are buying less as inflation bites. such as Christmas. existing legislation,” he added.
increases have spilled over into mainte- vider that has delivered some of the Tighter supply chains have also had to pay “The industry is certainly not bullet- Aileen Armstrong, senior director at
nance engineers,” he said, adding many scheme. caused many retailers to rationalise the through the proof. There’s still a significant shortage Ofwat, said: “Companies need to reduce
mechanics already held heavy goods Boot camp funds are also available for number of product lines they are dis- of drivers in the UK,” said James Russell, the use of storm overflows. We want to
vehicle (HGV) licences for moving businesses to partially subsidise in- playing, reducing shipping needs, nose for it’ managing director of AF Blakemore introduce measures to hold them to
trucks round the yard, so went back on according to Kieran Smith, chief execu- wholesale distributors, which has account for this and to ensure compa-
the road when wages surged in 2021. tive of Driver Require, a recruitment
Lee Juniper, invested heavily in training. “If there nies are in effect monitoring their use of
FreshLinc
The 2021 crisis was triggered by the agency. was some sort of renewed pressure, less storm overflows.
triple whammy of the economy roaring Day estimated that volumes were well-prepared parts of the industry “We will continue to use all the pow-
back into life after pandemic lockdowns down by 6-8 per cent this year, while could still come under strain pretty ers we have to drive companies to get to
as about 15,000 EU drivers left the UK Logistics UK found that 64 per cent of its quickly.” grips with this issue.”
because of Brexit and Covid, alongside members reported they had reduced But Day said a full-blown crisis was Water UK, which represents the water
changes to self-employment tax laws their fleet size when renewing their unlikely, partly because recent experi- industry, said: “By the end of 2023 every
that caused some older drivers to quit. memberships this year. Day predicted ence had taught big companies that they single storm overflow in England will be
Businesses responded by raising 2023 would be a “tough year” for the needed to be more flexible in their monitored.
wages, with companies such as Fresh- sector. demands. “By this time next year, every water
Linc and Turners training more of their Truck driver wage rises and job “If demand came back by 6-8 per cent company will make this data available
own drivers. vacancies have also softened markedly, suddenly, then we’d be squeezed again online so that the nation’s swimmers,
The industry was also aided by gov- according to Jack Kennedy, economist and drivers would be scarce,” he said. canoeists, tourists and anglers will all be
ernment intervention, including a at Indeed, the recruitment website. Job “But we can probably cope with that able to see exactly what’s happening, as
£34mn skills “boot camp” scheme that postings for HGV drivers peaked at 80 upsurge in demand if it only comes it’s happening, across every river and
was renewed for another year in March. per cent above pre-pandemic levels in through the economic cycle.” beach.”

Ofcom ruling Labour market

GB News rapped over Wolf Covid claims Hiring of permanent workers drops sharply
DANIEL THOMAS September 2021, said at the launch that Its probe concluded that GB News DELPHINE STRAUSS gled to find candidates with the right the private sector, where recruiters reg-
ECONOMICS CORRESPONDENT
it would challenge news broadcasting “fell short” of a requirement that view- skills. The report noted a pick-up in istered the sharpest slowdown in the IT
GB News breached broadcasting rules
orthodoxy, but also promised that it ers be adequately protected from con- London’s labour market cooled faster recruitment of temporary workers, and retail industries, and in hotels and
last year during a programme in which
would not be home to “fake news, lies, tent that has the potential to be harmful than anywhere else in the UK last which rose at the fastest pace for three catering.
US author Naomi Wolf compared the
disinformation, distortion of the facts by “allowing . . . Wolf to promote a seri- month, according to a survey showing months. The strongest demand was Recruiters also said they were finally
rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine to “mass
and conspiracy theories”. ous conspiracy theory without chal- the steepest decline in the hiring of per- seen for nursing, medical and care roles. finding it easier to attract candidates
murder”, the media regulator ruled
Ofcom found that in the interview, lenge or context”. manent staff since the height of the REC chief executive Neil Carberry after two years of severe staff shortages,
yesterday.
which was broadcast on October 4 2022, Ofcom said the fact that the network Covid-19 pandemic. said the increase in demand for temps with more people looking for work
Ofcom said an interview between pre- presented Wolf “as a figure of authority, because they had been made redun-
senter Mark Steyn and Wolf constituted with particular knowledge and exper- The jobs report by advisory firm KPMG dant, while others were searching for a
a “significant breach” of its rules — the US author Naomi tise in the safety of the Covid-19 vac- and the Recruitment & Employment
Businesses are ‘cautious better-paid role. Again, this increase in
second time the network has been
Wolf said the Covid
vaccine rollout was cines . . . would have lent credibility to Confederation, a trade body, pointed to about committing to candidate availability was more notice-
found to have broken guidelines. The her unchallenged claims”. the seventh consecutive monthly able in London than in any other region.
watchdog said it had called GB News in
akin to the actions
of ‘doctors in “Of particular concern was her signifi- decline in people placed in permanent
permanent hires’ because Weaker hiring and higher numbers of
“to discuss its approach to compliance”. pre-Nazi Germany’ cant and alarming claim that ‘mass roles in April. of economic uncertainty jobseekers have yet to take the heat out
The channel has carved out a niche in murder’ was taking place through the Permanent hiring activity fell at the of wage growth, which the Bank of Eng-
hiring right-leaning politicians and Wolf “made serious claims about the rollout of the Covid-19 vaccinations, fastest pace since January 2021, when showed there was “still plenty of oppor- land increasingly sees as a threat to its
commentators — including Nigel Covid-19 vaccine”, including that its which she repeated three times,” it the UK was in a Covid lockdown, and for tunity out there”, even though sectors efforts to return inflation, at 10.1 per
Farage, former Brexit party leader, and rollout amounted to a premeditated added. a third consecutive month it was weaker such as logistics, driving and food had cent, to its 2 per cent target.
ex-Conservative cabinet minister Jacob crime and was comparable to the GB News said it accepted that “former in the capital than in any other region. been “heavily affected by changing con- The REC’s measure of pay pressures
Rees-Mogg — as presenters. Other pro- actions of “doctors in pre-Nazi Ger- presenter Mark Steyn and his guest, Claire Warnes, partner at KPMG UK, sumer behaviour” amid the cost of liv- suggested the rate of increase in starting
gramme hosts and guests have also pre- many”. Naomi Wolf, breached the Ofcom code said economic uncertainty had made ing crisis. salaries, while below recent averages,
viously voiced scepticism about pan- The regulator said it had received 422 in their broadcast about Covid vaccines businesses “cautious about committing The survey showed demand for per- had picked up in April, because employ-
demic lockdowns and the vaccine. complaints alleging her comments were last October”. to permanent hires”, with many manent staff had weakened across all ers were competing for skilled staff and
Veteran journalist Andrew Neil, who “dangerous” and included “misinfor- Steyn last appeared on the channel announcing recruitment freezes or areas of the economy. However, the because they were having to pay more to
stepped down as chair of the network in mation” that went “unopposed”. five months ago, it said. delaying decisions, even as others strug- public sector was more resilient than reflect the rising cost of living.
4 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Wednesday 10 May 2023

INTERNATIONAL

Dual-use goods Trade

Beijing warns EU over proposed sanctions Chinese

investment in
Vow of retaliation if bloc Eight Chinese businesses accused of companies . . . [This] must not be dis- King-Pai provides microelectronics to tioned goods,” she said, adding: “We Europe hits
decade low
selling equipment to Russia that could rupted,” Qin said. “We are against states Russia that “have defence applications expect from all countries, including
punishes companies for be used in weapons have been listed in a introducing extraterritorial or one- that include cruise missile guidance China, that they exert influence on
helping Russia war effort new package of sanctions, seen by the sided sanctions on China or any other systems”, the US Treasury has said. their companies with this in mind.”
Financial Times, which will be dis- country according to their own domes- Baerbock declined to comment on the Addressing China’s recent peace initi-
GUY CHAZAN — BERLIN cussed by EU member states this week. tic laws. sanctions-hit companies. But she said it ative for Ukraine, Qin said Beijing would
Brussels has until now avoided target- “And if that were to happen, we would was “important” that the sanctions the remain in contact with all relevant JAMES KYNGE — LONDON
Beijing’s foreign minister has con- ing China, arguing that there was as yet react strictly and firmly. We will defend EU had imposed on Russia were “not countries and “play a constructive role”
Chinese investment in Europe fell to its
demned EU proposals to impose sanc- no evidence that it was providing weap- the legitimate interests of our country subverted in indirect ways”. in resolving the conflict.
lowest level in almost a decade last year
tions on Chinese companies for sup- ons to Moscow. and our companies.” “It is particularly critical when Rus- He said Xi Jinping, Chinese president,
as European countries tightened rules
porting Russia’s war machine, vowing to The punitive measures are just pro- 3HC Semiconductors and King-Pai sian arms companies gain access to war- in a recent phone conversation with
to stymie a lot of acquisitions.
react “strictly and firmly” to defend its posals, subject to the unanimous Technology, two mainland Chinese related products,” Baerbock said. For Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelen-
businesses. approval of the EU’s member states. companies on the EU’s list to be placed that reason, she added, the EU was con- skyy, had stressed that “dialogue and The 22 per cent decline in investment in
Qin Gang was speaking after meeting Qin said China did not deliver any under sanctions, are on the US sanctions sidering “pinpointed” measures to talks are the only way out of this crisis”. 2022, charted in a study by Rhodium
Annalena Baerbock, his German coun- weapons into crisis regions and had laws list. Hong Kong-based Sinno Electronics ensure that sanctions-hit “dual-use “China will not pour oil on to the fire Group, a research company, and Merics,
terpart, in Berlin to prepare for joint regulating the export of dual-use goods. and Sigma Technology, two other com- goods don’t end up in the wrong hands”. and will not try to derive its own benefit a Berlin think-tank, reflects Europe’s
German-Chinese government consulta- “There is a normal exchange and co- panies that are on the EU’s proposed list “That is not aimed against any spe- from this crisis.” recent moves to police the sale of assets
tions taking place next month. operation between Chinese and Russian are also on the US list. cific country but against these sanc- The FT View page 22 to China after years of enthusiastically
courting investment from Beijing.
The researchers found that at least
10 of 16 investment deals pursued in
Turkey 2022 by Chinese entities could not
be completed in the technology and

Erdoğan doles infrastructure sectors, principally

because of objections raised by authori-

out pay rise in

ties in the UK, Germany, Italy and Den-
mark.
Several of the aborted deals, such as

latest pre-poll proposed semiconductor acquisitions in

Germany and the UK, were blocked

giveaway
after reviews into the specific technol-
ogy targeted by the Chinese investor. In
other cases, deals already agreed were
annulled or collapsed after the imposi-
tion of regulatory stipulations, the
ADAM SAMSON — ANKARA report added.
“Increased scrutiny of inbound
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has handed a
investment will likely continue in com-
bumper pay rise to 700,000 Turkish
ing years,” said the report by Agatha
public sector workers just days before
Kratz and Mark Witzke at Rhodium
the presidential election, the latest in a
Group and Max Zenglein and Gregor
series of handouts aimed at convincing
Sebastian at Merics. The authors noted
voters to back him on Sunday.
that their study of 16 investment deals
The Turkish leader announced yester- was by no means exhaustive because
day that lower-paid government work- government reviews of transactions
ers would receive a pay boost of 45 per were often not made public.
cent, saying he would “not let anyone be The overall level of Chinese invest-
crushed by inflation”. ment into the EU and UK declined 22
Erdoğan faces Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, per cent to €7.9bn in 2022, the report
who represents a six-party opposition said. The level of investment was a frac-
alliance, in a poll that analysts say is one tion of the €47.4bn recorded in 2016 and
of the most important since the presi- the lowest total recorded since 2013.
dent came to power two decades ago. The totals include investment into new
Erdoğan’s popularity has fallen as the operations as well as mergers and acqui-
purchasing power of many Turks has sitions.
tumbled because of soaring inflation Some of the deals blocked by Euro-
and a lira that is trading at record lows pean regulators included Germany’s
against the US dollar.
Polls show Kılıçdaroğlu has a narrow Parade speech Vladimir Putin vowed to continue
pursuing his war in Ukraine yesterday,
forces have unsuccessfully tried to
capture for about nine months.
Kyiv, particularly since Ukraine had
changed its holiday to celebrate
ban on Sai MicroElectronics’ proposed
acquisition of the automotive chip

Putin claims
lead, but analysts say it is likely neither accusing western nations of seeking to Russia fired 25 cruise missiles at Europe Day on May 9, in line with assets of Elmos Semiconductor, the
politician will clinch the 50 per cent dismember Russia as the president’s Ukraine yesterday, most of which were other EU countries. UK’s stopping Hong Kong’s Super
share of the vote required for victory, forces launched more missile attacks intercepted. Explosions also rocked Emmanuel Macron, French Orange from buying electronic design
since other candidates are also running
for president. If neither Erdoğan nor west wants to on Kyiv.
Speaking at a scaled-back military
Kyiv on Monday as Russia sent its
largest swarm of attack drones to
president, also signalled support for
Kyiv, writing on Twitter that “today,
company Pulsic and Italy’s annulment
of the sale of a military drones group,
Kılıçdaroğlu hits the mark, there will be
an unprecedented run-off on May 28.
The ruling Justice and Development
destroy Russia parade in Moscow’s Red Square to
celebrate the Soviet Union’s victory in
the second world war, Putin claimed
target the capital. With many
predicting that a counteroffensive
would focus on Russian-occupied
with our help, Ukraine continues to
resist and, on the strength of its own
courage, will emerge victorious”.
Alpi Aviation, to Chinese state-backed
companies.
The authors highlighted that more EU
party has sought to reassure voters that that “a real war has once again been territories in Ukraine’s south-east, In his brief speech, Putin countries were tightening their over-
it will improve economic conditions, unleashed against our motherland”. Moscow last week began a partial continued to describe the invasion sight of Chinese investments, including
with officials at the grassroots level The goal of this, he said, was to evacuation of civilians from some of Ukraine as a “special military with powers to revisit regulatory
often indicating that only Erdoğan has “achieve the disintegration and frontline areas in the region. operation”, a term intended to approval for past deals.
what it takes to boost prosperity in the destruction of our country”. Ukrainian officials said 23 of the create the sense that the battle “In 2023, review mechanisms will
country of 85mn people. The modest festivities took place missiles were shot down. The country would be swift and limited in scope. come into effect in Belgium, Estonia and
However, economists say Erdoğan’s amid security concerns following a has recently benefited from Nato-grade But he also, for the first time, Ireland, in the latter also with retroac-
unorthodox approach, including cut- string of drone attacks deep inside anti-missile defences, with the US referred to the conflict as the tive effect,” said the report.
ting interest rates, is one of the main rea- Russia. Ahead of the parade, Russia yesterday announcing additional “people’s war”. “The Netherlands is planning to
sons why inflation has soared and inves- launched air strikes against Kyiv and assistance, including more air defence The Moscow parade was notably launch a broader review system that
tors have fled from Turkey’s markets. other cities in Ukraine, which were systems and ammunition. shorter than in previous years, will allow for reviews of sensitive tech-
Erdoğan has revealed a steady stream described by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Von der Leyen, who arrived in Kyiv analysts said. “Most of the nologies and energies, also with retroac-
of public handouts in recent weeks. The president, as an attempt by Moscow to after the strikes, described Ukraine as equipment they typically roll tive effect.”
flashiest of the announcements have show some military successes in its “the beating heart of today’s European through the square was not on Increased European scrutiny of deals
included a free month of natural gas for faltering invasion. values”, adding that “in Russia, Putin display,” said Michael Kofman, follows a similar trend in the US, where
consumers and lower electricity prices, “Russia . . . needs to sell something and his regime have destroyed these director of the Russia studies the Committee on Foreign Investment
along with increases in the minimum to their society,” Zelenskyy said during values, and now they are attempting to programme at the Center for Naval in the US has become more active in vet-
wage and pensions for public workers. a news conference with Ursula von der destroy them here in Ukraine”. Analyses, a Washington think-tank. ting proposed Chinese acquisitions of
Kılıçdaroğlu has promised that his Leyen, European Commission “But the aggressor has already “I think they cut most of the parade American tech assets.
coalition, known as the “table of six”, Talking tough: Vladimir Putin president. “They were not able to sell dramatically failed. Ukraine has short to avoid the risk, and the time Other factors weighing on investment
will reform the country’s economic addresses a slimmed-down Bakhmut to their society because they resisted the attack and is fighting back during which leadership would be flows included the coronavirus pan-
management and attempt to win back Victory Day parade in Moscow’s were not able to capture Bakhmut,” he successfully.” exposed.” demic, which severely limited travel to
foreign capital. Red Square yesterday added, referring to the bombed-out Von der Leyen said it was “very Additional reporting by Felicia Europe by Chinese businesspeople, and
Additional reporting by Funja Güler Gavriil Grigorov/Sputnik/AFP/Getty Images
city in eastern Ukraine that Russia’s fitting” to celebrate Europe Day in Schwartz in Washington domestic Chinese controls on outbound
See Markets and FT Big Read capital.

Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Israel kills three militant commanders in Gaza air strikes

JAMES SHOTTER — JERUSALEM Israeli and Palestinian officials named Gallant, Israel defence minister, an 11-day war with Israel in 2021 —
the commanders killed in yesterday’s approved the call-up of reserves, and would be the main determinant of
Israel was braced for retaliation after
strikes as Khalil al-Bahtini, head of authorities ordered Israelis living in the whether the confrontation escalated.
its forces killed at least 15 people in air
Islamic Jihad’s operations in the north- vicinity of the coastal enclave to stay “[If Hamas decides] to join, it could
strikes in the Gaza Strip yesterday that
ern Gaza Strip; Tariq Ezz el-Din, who co- close to bomb shelters. lead to rocket fire from the northern
targeted commanders from the mili-
ordinated the group’s activities in the Islamic Jihad and Hamas, the larger front and a significant prolongation of
tant group Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
West Bank; and Jihad al-Ghannam, sec- militant group that controls the Gaza the operation,” Tamir Hayman, former
Palestinian officials in the blockaded retary of its military council. Strip, condemned the air strikes. head of Israeli military intelligence,
strip said in addition to the fatalities, Israel said the militants were involved Islamic Jihad vowed revenge, while wrote on Twitter.
eight of whom were women and chil- in last week’s rocket fire and also were Hamas said Israel would “pay the price Forty Israeli aircraft were involved in
dren, 22 people had been injured. planning “future activity”. An official for its crimes and aggression” but did yesterday’s air strikes, which the mili-
“We are in the midst of a campaign said Israel had targeted only military not specify what action it would take. tary said also targeted 10 weapons man-
and we are prepared for all possibili- targets and “regretted” any civilian cas- Analysts said the stance of Hamas — it ufacturing sites and military com-
ties,” Israeli prime minister Benjamin ualties. has far greater military capabilities than pounds linked to Islamic Jihad.
MAKE A WISE INVESTMENT Netanyahu said at the start of a security
cabinet after the strikes.
In anticipation of retaliation, Yoav Islamic Jihad and most recently fought More than 100 Palestinians and 19
Israelis have been killed this year. The
The air strikes are the latest burst of violence is a serious challenge for the
violence in a year of rising Israeli-Pales- government of Netanyahu, which came
Choose the Financial Times subscription for you tinian tensions, which has included sev- to power promising a hardline stance
• React to trusted global news everywhere you eral exchanges of rocket fire in Gaza, as against Palestinian militants.
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tants fired more than 100 projectiles at But members of Jewish Power backed
Israel after the death of one of their the air strikes yesterday, with one,
members, Khader Adnan, on the 87th Almog Cohen, saying that they had “our
day of a hunger strike in Israeli custody. Palestinians mourn those killed in the air strikes yesterday — Mohammed Saber/EPA-EFE full [support]”.
Wednesday 10 May 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 5
6 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Wednesday 10 May 2023

INTERNATIONAL

Europe struggles Ageing healthcare workforce will exacerbate staffing shortages

% of doctors aged 55 or over, 2020 or latest year
0 20 40 60

to revive health
Italy
Latvia
Bulgaria
Estonia
France

services after
Belgium
Hungary
Iceland
Switzerland
Portugal
Spain

pandemic crisis
Denmark
Sweden
Germany
Ireland
UK

Foreign-trained doctors make up a rising percentage of Europe’s

Fears voiced on capacity as burnt-out healthcare workforce
% of doctors that are trained abroad
staff quit and populations grow older 2010 2021 or latest available
0 10 20 30 40 50
SARAH NEVILLE — LONDON and his colleagues were “working at a Italy
GIULIANA RICOZZI — ROME Austria
rhythm more than 100 per cent higher
Staff burnout and demographic changes than in 2019, but staffing levels have not France
Belgium
threaten a permanent contraction in the increased proportionally”. He added: Germany
European health workforce, with the “Plus, we have three years of fatigue and Slovenia
sector’s leaders warning they may never psychological pressure behind us.” Finland*
Sweden
restore the capacity to treat patients to The trends hit some EU nations UK
pre-pandemic levels. harder than others, said Azoulay, whose Switzerland
Across the continent, clinicians are organisation represents more than Ireland*
confronting a damaging mismatch 10,000 intensive care staff. Central Norway
between demand and resources, with Europe was “very much affected”, with * Earliest data is 2011
Sources: WHO; Eurostat
public spending cuts forcing them to nurses from Romania and the Czech
look at different ways to treat patients. Republic leaving to help fill shortages in
“Covid-19, an ageing society and peo- wealthier countries such as Germany. Sharp end: sense, that’s a crucial point where [they] demic. Its chief executive, Björn Zoëga, ‘When redefined as an investment rather than
ple who feel really overworked Giuseppe Bonsignore, a radiologist, the intensive quit the job,” she added. attributed this to the extent of psycho- simply a sunk cost, he said, with politi-
. . . might add up to a long-term reduc- from the Villa Sofia-Cervello hospital in care unit at Reflecting the pressures, health work- logical support the hospital offered staff people cians often believing that such expendi-
tion in the capacity of the healthcare the Sicilian city of Palermo, said six University ers in France, Ireland, Germany and and to Stockholm’s decision to avoid consider ture disappeared into “a black hole”.
system,” said Heyo Kroemer, chief exec- emergency room doctors had left in Hospital other countries have turned to indus- lockdowns, which spared his workforce Covid’s key lesson, according to
utive of the Charité hospital in Berlin, recent weeks, two of them moving to Leipzig. trial action over the past year to protest from the stresses of home-schooling. their work Kluge, is that there should not be a “false
one of Europe’s biggest teaching hospi- northern Italy to undertake less intense Germany is one against working conditions and a lack of “Of course, we lost some staff but we doesn’t dichotomy” between health and eco-
tals. “I’m not really sure whether in Ger- on-call work. His own department was of several EU resources. Demographic shifts are leav- gained some staff,” he said. In March, nomic development. Kroemer said
many we will ever come back to the now short of 10 doctors, he noted, fol- countries where ing health systems with far more elderly Karolinska’s nursing staff numbers make sense, using digital technologies more effec-
2019 capacity.” lowing recent departures and retire- health workers people to care for and far fewer workers were the same compared with Decem- that’s a tively to communicate with and assess
Chronic shortages have been aggra- ments. “This means doing more shifts, have taken to undertake that care. ber 2019 but the number of assistant patients would help a broader shift in
vated by a struggle to replace workers less holidays,” he added. In Bergamo, industrial action “If you compare the birth year 1960 nurses had increased 4 per cent and crucial focus to preventing, rather than simply
who have left public health services. Fagiuoli said a few of his colleagues had over working with the birth year 1975, in Germany doctors 9 per cent. But about 6 per cent point where treating, disease — an approach he said
Kroemer’s concerns are shared across left his unit for less-pressured work in conditions and a you have a decrease in birth rates of of the workforce in the Stockholm area Germany had been slow to adopt.
Europe. Elie Azoulay, professor of criti- the private sector or at other hospitals. lack of resources more than 30 per cent. So a third of the was employed in healthcare, he said, but [they] quit “You have to reduce the number of
cal care medicine at Saint-Louis Hospi- Psychologist Laurence Erdur, who Jens Schlueter/Getty Images population will be lacking within the if the population continued to age at the the job’ people who get sick . . . to cope with this
tal in Paris and president of the Euro- was transferred to Charité’s ICU to sup- next 10 years,” Kroemer said. Interna- current rate, that would need to rise to [demographic shift],” he said.
pean Society of Intensive Care Medi- port both staff and patients at the start tional recruitment would only partly 36 per cent in 10 years and “that is never Kluge agreed that better use of digital
cine, said 15-25 per cent of hospital beds of the pandemic, said some colleagues make up for this shortfall, he added. going to happen”. tools was vital, allied with the more flex-
across the EU were out of commission had struggled then to make sense of the Kroemer said traditional approaches The contraction in Europe’s health ible deployment of staff. “Nurses and
because of a lack of personnel. large numbers of young people dying. to hiring workers “will be of limited workforce had begun long before Covid midwives are the biggest health work-
Staff must still cope with a big backlog While everyone had received the value because you cannot recruit people because of years of “chronic under-in- force in the region and we could make
of treatment even after the World same professional care, the need to treat who are simply not there”. vestment”, said Hans Kluge, the WHO’s far better use of that in many countries,”
Health Organization declared an end to people who had opted not to be vacci- Some European countries are buck- director for Europe. The UN body esti- he said. “You’ll never hear me saying
the Covid emergency on Friday. Stefano nated had intensified the sense of frus- ing the trend. In Sweden, Karolinska mates the global shortfall in healthcare that health is everything, but without
Fagiuoli, a gastroenterologist at Ber- tration and helplessness. “When people University Hospital has increased its workers will reach 10mn by 2030. health there is nothing.”
gamo Hospital in northern Italy, said he consider that their work doesn’t make workforce since the start of the pan- Healthcare spending needed to be Janan Ganesh see Opinion
Wednesday 10 May 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 7
8 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Wednesday 10 May 2023

INTERNATIONAL

Opposition leader

Khan arrest spurs fresh protests in Pakistan

Supporters call for release side a court in Islamabad where he was by his supporters. The former premier tioned the legitimacy of the arrest. “In Khan was arrested will not leave a good that he unlawfully sold gifts he received
due to face graft charges. Video posted was ousted by lawmakers in a no-confi- the specific matter of this land case, impression on anyone.” while serving as prime minister.
after former premier held by his party showed the former cricket dence vote last April. Imran Khan was not issued with any Khan lost the vote of no confidence The arrest came the day after the
on corruption charges star being dragged into an armoured Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf notice ahead of his arrest. He was sud- last year after failing to solve the coun- army criticised Khan for accusing a sen-
vehicle by a crowd of government party demanded his immediate release, denly picked up after being attacked try’s economic problems. But a further ior general of backing the failed assassi-
FARHAN BOKHARI — ISLAMABAD agents, many carrying riot shields. and encouraged his supporters to go out viciously,” she said. deterioration of the economy since then nation attempt against him. “These fab-
CHLOE CORNISH — MUMBAI “Imran Khan has been arrested and protest. Arrest threats against Khan this year has revived support for him, at the ricated and malicious allegations [by
because he was being sought in a graft Police in the cental city of Lahore were had sparked protests in the capital, expense of his successor Shehbaz Sharif. Khan] are extremely unfortunate,
Imran Khan, Pakistan’s former prime case,” Rana Sanaullah, Pakistan’s inte- put on a high alert as thousands of peo- Islamabad, and police clashed with Khan was shot while taking part in a deplorable and unacceptable,” the army
minister, was arrested by the country’s rior minister, said. The allegations ple took to the streets, the Associated Khan’s supporters outside his residence protest convoy in Wazirabad in Novem- said. “This has been a consistent pattern
anti-corruption force yesterday, spark- related to the purchase of land by a Press reported, while crowds also gath- in Lahore in March. ber, suffering a leg injury. for [the] last one year, wherein military
ing fresh protests by his supporters in an charitable trust controlled by Khan and ered in other large cities. “Things are already very bad and this National elections are due to be held and intelligence agencies officials are
already volatile political climate. his wife Bushra Bibi, he said. The PTI said in a tweet that paramili- will only aggravate Pakistan’s situation,” in October but Khan faces a barrage of targeted with insinuations and sensa-
The opposition figure was detained by The arrest of the country’s most popu- tary “rangers [had] abducted” Khan. said Ayaz Amir, a former member of legal challenges that could disqualify tional propaganda for the furtherance of
the National Accountability Bureau out- lar politician follows months of protests Shireen Mazari, a PTI leader, ques- parliament. “The manner in which him from running, including allegations political objectives,” it said.

Education. Political pressure

Florida law stokes

fears of academic
intimidation
universities and libraries across the
Governor DeSantis set to country, including through book bans
approve act that outlaws state and restrictions on curriculums.
“We are living in a culture of fear and
funding for ‘woke’ activities nervous about repercussions. What
comes across is that we should be care-
ful in what we teach,” said Alexandra
ANDREW JACK — NEW YORK
Cornelius, director of women’s studies
Academics and free-speech advocates at Florida International University.
have warned of a new era of intellectual The latest moves follow recent actions
intimidation in Florida after lawmakers and threats that have already spurred
voted to impose some of the country’s academics across Florida’s publicly
toughest restrictions on the independ- funded universities to censor courses,
ence of its universities. seek jobs elsewhere and switch commu-
Florida’s Republican-dominated state nication to personal emails to circum-
legislature last week approved a bill that vent orders to not talk to the media.
weakens academic tenure, outlaws state Andrew Gothard, president of United
funding for campus activities that advo- Faculty of Florida, an education union,
cate diversity, equality and inclusion, said: “It’s hard to overstate how harmful
and requires “the western canon” to be this is going to be. We are already hear-
taught, while banning content on iden- ing across the state of faculty searches
tity politics or systemic racism. failing and faculty retiring in droves or
The law, set to come into force on July seeking jobs in other states to get away Tallahassee: on LGBT+ topics in schools, prevent spectrum should understand why we ‘People on are more interested in protecting their
1 after it is signed by governor Ron from all this nonsense and propaganda.” demonstrators academics testifying on policy, and don’t let whoever has more power status quo and furthering their agenda
DeSantis, marks the latest intensifica- DeSantis signed a “Stop Woke Act” in protest in required universities to compile lists of decide what ideas can be discussed.” all parts of rather than delivering a quality educa-
tion of pressure by conservative politi- 2022 to restrict teaching on race and February diversity programmes with the inten- DeSantis is a potential Republican the political tion to Florida’s students.”
cians on the management of schools, gender and has sought to ban discussion against plans by tion of axing their funding. candidate for US president in 2024. His New College did not reply to requests
Ron DeSantis, He also changed the leadership at agenda resonated with “a subset of spectrum for comment.
below, regarding New College, a small liberal arts univer- Republican primary voters who feel should Jonathan Becker, executive vice-
Florida’s sity, appointing as a trustee a conserva- strongly about the issues DeSantis is president at Bard College, which has
Contracts & Tenders ‘Stop Woke Act’ tive activist who attacks critical race highlighting. Not a majority, but the understand offered New College students online
Joshua Lott/The Washington theory. Since then a librarian has been base that is key to getting elected in the why we access to Open Society University Net-
Post/Getty Images
fired and some faculty members have Republican primaries,” said Ronald work summer courses on topics at risk
retired early or quit. Cox, a professor of politics and interna- don’t let of censorship, said: “It’s frightful. They
Matthew Lepinski, associate profes- tional relations at Florida International whoever are purposefully modelling it on what
sor of computer science, resigned in University, citing polling data. Viktor Orbán has done to university
protest last month after New College Some academics have criticised the has more education in Hungary.”
denied tenure to five academics — four way racism and diversity are being power The bill passed last week strengthens
from under-represented groups — taught within universities, including the power of university presidents on
despite strong references from their Musa al-Gharbi, a sociologist at Colum- decide what hiring, and requires a review of academ-
peers and praise from students. bia University, who said he was “push- ideas can be ics’ tenure every five years. It bars state
“I’m very concerned about what Flor- ing back against some of the more ridic- spending on “programmes or campus
ida higher education will look like in a ulous and unhelpful ways these theoret- discussed’ activities that advocate for diversity,
few years,” he said. “The applicant pools ical frameworks are regularly applied”. equity and inclusion, or promote or
are now shrinking and untenured fac- But he added: “I have far more faith engage in political or social activism”.
ulty have been censoring themselves in that my colleagues can course-correct Marybeth Gasman, chair of education
a wide variety of courses they teach in the face of critiques like mine and at Rutgers University, New Jersey’s state
because they didn’t want to take risks.” eventually strike a better balance on university, said: “Everyone in our
Joe Cohn, legislative and policy direc- these issues than I have that non-aca- nation knows that we have a history
tor at the Foundation for Individual demic political appointees with an axe steeped in racism due to our long-term
Rights and Expression, which is appeal- to grind will somehow do a better job.” commitment to slavery, destruction of
ing against last year’s law, said the new Responding to criticism of efforts to Native American nations, and so many
bill “doubles down on the Stop clamp down on diversity programmes, other atrocities. We need to recognise
Woke Act, which is wildly unconstitu- Jeremy Redfern, a spokesman for these horrors and ensure that we don’t
tional. People on all parts of the political DeSantis, said: “These bureaucracies let them happen again.”

Trade data Diplomacy dispute

Big fall in Chinese imports Beijing expels Canadian

points to slower recovery consul in tit-for-tat move
THOMAS HALE — SHANGHAI But factory activity figures released THOMAS HALE — SHANGHAI consultancies, including this week on
HUDSON LOCKETT — HONG KONG
last week showed signs of sluggishness Capvision.
China has demanded that a senior
Chinese imports suffered their biggest and authorities have warned of an It also unveiled an anti-espionage law
Canadian diplomat leave the country
contraction in a year last month, while incomplete recovery as global demand that stands to further chill the domestic
in retaliation for the expulsion of one of
exports expanded at a slower pace than for goods waned. environment for foreigners.
its diplomats in Toronto.
expected, casting doubt over the pace The renminbi fell 0.2 per cent against It has responded to US measures to
of the economic recovery after three the dollar yesterday to Rmb6.9254. In China’s foreign ministry yesterday gave cut off access to semiconductor technol-
years of pandemic restrictions. Hong Kong, the Hang Seng China Enter- Jennifer Lynn Lalonde, consul of the ogy with an investigation into US group
prises index was down 2.1 per cent. Shanghai consulate, until Saturday to Micron on national security grounds.
Imports fell 7.9 per cent year on year in Hao Zhou, chief economist at Guotai leave the country. It confirmed that the Zhao, who was posted to the Chinese
April, a far deeper decline than the Junan International, said the trade fig- decision was a “reciprocal counter- consulate in Toronto, was given five
0.2 per cent contraction analysts ures and the import data, in particular, measure” after Canada’s expulsion of days to leave Canada late on Monday.
expected, according to a Bloomberg were “somewhat downbeat” and sug- diplomat Zhao Wei — the first of its kind His expulsion followed a Canadian
poll. gested they pointed to slowing growth in decades — just hours earlier. Security Intelligence Service report that
Exports in the month rose 8.5 per cent momentum in the second quarter. The Canadian embassy did not he targeted lawmaker Michael Chong,
compared with a year earlier, following Beijing has set a cautious growth tar- respond to a request for comment. who sponsored a 2021 resolution accus-
an unexpected jump in March, benefit- get of 5 per cent for the full year, its low- The expulsions were the latest sign of ing Beijing of genocide in the north-
ing from a low base last year. est in decades, after missing a 5.5 per increasingly fraught relations between western province of Xinjiang.
The mixed trade data released yester- cent target in 2022 when economic China and western countries. China’s foreign ministry said it
day was closely watched across markets growth came in at just 3 per cent. US politicians have been increasingly “strongly condemns and firmly
for clues on the state of China’s econ- In March, exports unexpectedly critical of the Chinese Communist party opposes” Zhao’s expulsion and had
omy, which has thrown up conflicting surged 15 per cent after several consecu- and imposed sweeping measures to lodged a “strong protest to Canada”.
signals as it emerges from three years of tive months of declines, while imports curb China’s development of advanced Explaining Zhao’s expulsion, Mélanie
closure under anti-coronavirus rules. contracted 1.4 per cent. semiconductor technology, while Can- Joly, Canada’s foreign minister, said
Gross domestic product expanded 4.5 Capital Economics estimated that ada has stepped up accusations of sur- Ottawa “will not tolerate any form of
per cent in the first quarter of the year after adjusting for price changes and veillance and electoral interference. foreign interference in our internal
and exports expanded after months of seasonality, export volumes fell 4.4 per Foreign businesses operating in China affairs” adding: “Diplomats in Canada
weakness, while tourism over a recent cent in April compared with March. have sought to keep a low profile to have been warned that if they engage in
national holiday surpassed pre-pan- “This suggests that global demand for avoid the impact of the tensions but Bei- this kind of behaviour, they will be sent
demic levels for the first time. Chinese goods remains weak,” it said. jing has recently authorised raids of home.”
Wednesday 10 May 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 9

Chinese puzzle A flagging VW must find a way of engaging tech-savvy local rivals in the world’s biggest car market y PAGE 11

Spotify ejects Rap battle Big investor presses Adidas to

publish probe into Kanye West allegations
Fox defends
Dominion
thousands of settlement
despite loss
AI-generated ANNA NICOLAOU — NEW YORK

Fox chief executive Lachlan Murdoch

music tracks
yesterday defended his decision to set-
tle litigation over the network’s role in
airing conspiracy theories about elec-
tion fraud, telling investors it “in no
way alters Fox’s commitment to the
highest journalistic standards”.

3 Boomy platform’s songs pared down Fox last month agreed to a last-minute
deal to pay nearly $800mn to settle a

3 Push to stop bots posing as listeners lawsuit from voting technology com-
pany Dominion, one of the biggest defa-
mation awards in US history.
That decision weighed on Fox’s
ANNA NICOLAOU — NEW YORK Spotify confirmed it had removed earnings, pushing the company to a
some Boomy content. “Artificial $50mn net loss in the first three months
Spotify has removed tens of thousands streaming is a longstanding, industry- of the year.
of songs from artificial intelligence wide issue that Spotify is working to In a call with analysts after the com-
music start-up Boomy, ramping up stamp out across our service,” it said. pany’s results, Murdoch framed the set-
policing of its platform amid complaints “We are always encouraged when we tlement as a “business decision” to
of fraud and clutter across streaming see our partners exercise vigilance “avoid the acrimony of a divisive trial”
services. around the monitoring or activity on while blaming a Delaware court for
In recent months the music industry their platforms,” said Michael Nash, restricting Fox’s defence.
has been confronting the rise of AI-gen- Universal’s chief digital officer. “We have been and remain confident
erated songs and, more broadly, the The crackdown comes as music in the merits of our position, that the
growing number of tracks inundating industry power broker Lucian Grainge first amendment protects a news organ-
streaming platforms daily. has spent months speaking out about isation’s reporting on newsworthy
Spotify, the largest audio streaming the proliferation of songs on platforms events,” Murdoch said.
business, recently took down about such as Spotify, where 100,000 new The Delaware judge had in effect
7 per cent of the tracks that had been tracks are being added each day, and rejected that position, ruling in March
uploaded by Boomy, the equivalent of growing manipulation of the system. that the US Constitution’s first amend-
“tens of thousands” of songs, according Grainge, Universal’s chief executive, ment offered no free-speech protection
to a person familiar with the matter. told investors last week that “the recent to those deliberately broadcasting lies.
explosive development in generative AI “The Delaware court severely limited
will, if left unchecked, both increase the our defence in the trial in pre-trial rul-
‘Boomy is categorically flood of unwanted content on platforms Running low: Adidas said ending the Yeezy brand would cost it €500mn in operating profit this year — DedMityay/Alamy ings,” Murdoch said.
against any type of and create rights issues with respect to The move to settle was “clearly in the
existing copyright law”. its internal investigation at its annual Stone magazine reported in Novem- best interest of the company and its
artificial streaming [to The issue has escalated to the fore-
OLAF STORBECK — FRANKFURT
meeting tomorrow, according to a ber that former employees claimed in shareholders” to avoid a six-week trial
Adidas is facing demands from a
inflate audience numbers]’ front of concerns in the music industry
leading investor to disclose findings
draft speech seen by the Financial a letter that senior managers knew of and appeals process that could have
in the past few months. The streaming Times. West’s “problematic behaviour” and lasted two or three years, he said. “We’re
of a probe into its handling of mis-
Recording giant Universal Music had boom has given rise to an array of serv- Janne Werning, head of ESG at tolerated “years of verbal abuse, vul- proud of our Fox News team.”
conduct allegations against Kanye
flagged to all the main streaming plat- ices offering artists the chance to buy Union Investment, will urge Adidas to gar tirades, and bullying attacks”. The cost of the settlement pushed Fox
West as shareholder ire over its ill-
forms that it saw suspicious streaming success. A Google search for “buy Spot- disclose the results of the investiga- Union Investment wrote in Novem- to a loss despite an 18 per cent year-on-
fated tie-up with its former business
activity on Boomy tracks, according to ify streams” yields millions of results, tion “here and now”, stressing that ber to Adidas demanding to know year rise in its first-quarter revenue to
partner continues to mount.
another person close to the situation. with sites such as “spotistar.com” offer- shareholders were entitled to know. when executives and supervisory more than $4bn.
The Boomy songs were removed ing 1,000 Spotify plays for $6. Former employees in November He will also demand the company board members first learnt about the Advertising revenue rose more than
because of suspected “artificial stream- The Financial Times reported last accused Adidas of having turned a “transparently clean up the scandal”. misconduct allegations against West. 40 per cent to $1.9bn in the quarter,
ing” — online bots posing as human lis- month that Universal had asked blind eye to alleged inappropriate Union Investment, alongside Ger- Adidas at the time said it had boosted by the Super Bowl and other
teners to inflate the audience numbers streaming services to crack down on the behaviour by West, also known as Ye, many’s second-largest investor Deka, launched an independent investiga- NFL games. On an adjusted basis, the
for certain songs. use of generative AI on their platforms. who was dropped by the German has already said it would not support tion into the allegations. company reported earnings of 94 cents
AI has made this type of activity eas- That same week, a song that used AI to group last year over his antisemitic confidence votes over the perform- The group is facing a class-action a share, above estimates of analysts
ier because it allows someone to mimic Drake and The Weeknd’s voices remarks. The sudden end of the Yeezy ance of the executive board and the lawsuit in the US over its handling of polled by Refinitiv of 87 cents.
instantly generate many music tracks, went viral on streaming platforms. brand would wipe out €1.2bn in sales supervisory board. Shareholder the Yeezy scandal. In a lawsuit filed It has been a tumultuous year for Fox
which can then be uploaded online. Boomy at the weekend resumed sub- and €500mn in operating profit this proxy service Glass Lewis recom- last month, shareholders alleged that Corp, with anchor Tucker Carlson
Boomy allows users to pick descrip- mitting new tracks to Spotify. The two year, Adidas warned in February. It mended that investors not support it had long been aware of West’s offen- abruptly exiting the network last
tors, such as “rap beats”, to create a sides are negotiating over reinstating said it could post its first net loss in the supervisory board. sive remarks and harmful behaviour month, only days after the Dominion
machine-generated track. Users can the rest of Boomy’s catalogue. The com- three decades. West, a US rapper and fashion but neither disclosed the risks nor settlement.
release the music to streaming services, pany said: “Boomy is categorically Union Investment, Germany’s designer, allegedly played pornogra- prepared for them. On a call with analysts, Murdoch
where they will generate royalty pay- against any type of manipulation or arti- third-largest asset manager and a phy to staff in meetings and showed Adidas declined to comment, but dodged a question about Carlson, say-
ments. California-based Boomy says its ficial streaming. We are working with top-20 investor in Adidas, will call on an intimate picture of his ex-wife Kim said it would address Union Invest- ing: “As always, we are adjusting our
users have created 14mn songs. industry partners to address this issue.” the company to reveal the results of Kardashian in job interviews. Rolling ment’s questions at the meeting. programming and our line-up.”

Rise of Australian women chiefs belies wider gender imbalance

door advertising. Macquarie itself CEW warns that there are still too few
INSIDE BUSINESS appointed its first female chief execu- women in chief executive feeder roles
tive in 2018 when it promoted Shemara with profit and loss responsibilities out-
ASIA-PACIFIC Wikramanayake to the top job. From side the top companies. “Women are
next year it will have twice as many typically under-represented in these
Nic women on its board as men.
Wikramanayake, who has previously
roles, with women holding just over one
in 10 line management roles in the
Fildes described the struggle of attracting
women to jobs in the financial services
ASX300 in our most recent census,” a
spokeswoman said.
industry, welcomed the greater gender Eliza Littleton, a senior economist at
representation, which, she said, was the Australia Institute’s Centre for

W
“more reflective of the community”. Future Work, said that while the spate of
hen Qantas appointed The ASX — which appointed a female female chief executive appointments
its next chief executive, chief executive in 2022 — suddenly was heartening, this progress was not
Vanessa Hudson — who looks in better shape than the FTSE 100, yet reflected in the country’s broader
will be its first female which only counts one female CEO, labour market. With a gender pay gap of
leader in a century since GSK’s Emma Walmsley, in its top 20 more than 13 per cent, women still earn
the airline was founded — it marked a largest businesses. The recent promo- far less on average than their male coun-
turning point in the promotion of tion of Vodafone’s Margherita Della terparts. “We won’t see the gender pay
women to the top of Australia’s largest Valle to permanent chief executive gap close until 2053. That’s really slow
companies. Hudson’s internal competi- takes the number of female leaders in progress. Those at the high end tend to
tor for the job was also a woman, Olivia the overall FTSE be exceptions to the rule,” Littleton said.
Wirth, while the most likely outside
candidate, Jayne Hrdlicka, now leads
100 to only eight.
The rise of the
The toxic culture of The votes of professional women
played a big role in the election of a
the carrier’s rival, Virgin Australia. new generation of misogyny in parliament Labor government that has promised to
In 2020, only 5 per cent of the ASX’s women leaders and parts of the business address workplace inequality. This
20 largest listed companies were run by reflects Australia’s week’s budget will set out Labor’s policy
women. The advocacy group Chief move to broaden establishment cannot be plan to improve conditions for women
Executive Women warned last year that the gender base of easily swept away in the labour market in areas such as
it would take 100 years for corporate its political and childcare subsidies, paid parental leave
Australia to achieve a gender balance of corporate make-up in recent years. The and increased pay for care workers.
40 per cent. Labor party set a quota for the number The government has already estab-
Yet the ratio has now jumped to 30 of female candidates pre-selected in lished a task force on women’s economic
per cent of the ASX20 as some of Aus- winnable parliamentary seats in the equality.
tralia’s largest telecoms, mining and 1990s, and has consistently raised those Hudson hopes the rise of a new gener-
retail companies appointed female quotas to close to 50 per cent today. ation of female leaders will continue —
leaders — such as Sherry Duhe, interim The elevation of executives such as but the full impact of her elevation was
chief executive of Newcrest Mining, Hudson and Telstra’s Vicki Brady has felt far closer to home. She described
which is the target of a $19bn bid. been widely celebrated but with the telling her two daughters that she had
The rise of the Australian female chief caveat that the toxic culture of misog- won the competition to take on one of
executive was evident at Macquarie’s yny in parliament and sections of the Australia’s most challenging leadership
annual business leaders conference, Australian business establishment can- roles. “I’ve always been a mother who
held in Sydney last week, when fund not be easily swept away. The reckoning wants to lead by example and to listen to
managers may have watched five con- in the country’s mining industry — their reflections last night was incredi-
secutive sessions chaired by women which has been hit by reports of horren- bly meaningful to me,” she said.
leaders covering rare earths, iron ore, oil dous assaults on female miners — shows
and gas exploration, telecoms and out- that some sectors have a long way to go. nic.fildes@ft.com
10 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Wednesday 10 May 2023

COMPANIES & MARKETS

Banks Airlines

Goldman settles gender bias suit for $215mn Ryanair to buy

up to $40bn of
Nearly 3,000 women The two sides agreed the settlement The average payout for individual wide policies and practices that led to man, said the bank was “proud of its Boeing aircraft
claimed unfair treatment
on pay and promotion
and will forgo a trial that had been
scheduled for next month in a New York
claimants will be just under $50,000,
with a third of the proceeds — about
better pay and promotion prospects for
male employees and alleged the bank’s
long record of promoting and advancing
women and remains committed to and create
10,000 jobs
federal court, lawyers for the women $71.7mn — going towards fees for the review process allowed managers, ensuring a diverse and inclusive work-
confirmed. plaintiffs’ lawyers. mostly men, to nominate people who place for all our people”.
JOSHUA FRANKLIN AND JOE MILLER The funds will be shared among about As part of the agreement, plaintiffs’ contributed to appraisals of staff, lead- Goldman chief executive David Solo-
NEW YORK 2,800 associates and vice-presidents lawyers said Goldman had also under- ing to a “tap on the shoulder system”. mon has talked publicly about trying to
who participated in the class-action taken to hire an independent expert “to “My goal in this case has always been diversify the bank’s workforce and pub-
Goldman Sachs has agreed to pay suit, primarily in the investment bank- conduct an additional analysis on per- to support strong women on Wall lished a set of hiring targets in 2019. In SYLVIA PFEIFER AND PHILIP GEORGIADIS
$215mn to settle a longstanding gender ing and securities divisions. formance evaluation processes” at the Street,” Allison Gamba, one of the plain- the group’s biennial selection process
Irish low-cost carrier Ryanair has
discrimination lawsuit brought by In a court filing, plaintiffs’ lawyers bank, as well as conduct “pay equity tiffs, said following the settlement. “I am for its elite partner status last year, 29
struck a multibillion-dollar deal to buy
former female employees who said they described the settlement as “one of the studies”. proud that the result we achieved here per cent of the employees selected were
up to 300 Boeing aircraft, signalling a
were consistently underpaid and under- most significant employment discrimi- The original claimants, including will advance gender equity.” women, a record high.
big expansion of its fleet in the latest
valued by male colleagues. nation class-action settlements”. The former Goldman employees Cristina Adam Klein, a lawyer at Outten & Last year, another former Goldman
sign of the travel industry’s revival.
The settlement concludes a long-run- sum is one of the largest payouts of its Chen-Oster and Shanna Orlich, first Golden who represented the women, employee, Jamie Fiore Higgins, pub-
ning legal case surrounding Goldman, kind, eclipsing the $150mn settlement sued in 2010 and won the right to lead a said the settlement “offers meaningful lished a memoir of her 17 years at the The agreement for the 737 Max-10 air-
which had underscored the struggle on in the “Boom Boom Room” case at class-action lawsuit over sex discrimi- relief to our clients”. bank in which she alleged she suffered craft, including 150 options, is valued at
Wall Street to diversify the finance Smith Barney in the 1990s involving nation in 2018. Jacqueline Arthur, global head of bullying, discrimination and manipula- more than $40bn at current list prices,
industry’s workforce. nearly 2,000 women. They accused Goldman of company- human capital management at Gold- tion. although airlines typically secure signif-
icant discounts on large orders.
It comes after discussions collapsed
more than 18 months ago over a disa-
Defamation. Neighbours’ feud greement on price.
The aircraft will be delivered between
2027 and 2033.

Fashion magnate brought low by his own smears The order is an endorsement of the
largest variant of Boeing’s 737 Max and
underlines the appetite of airlines to
splash out on new aircraft as travel has
rebounded in the wake of the pandemic.
investigation had blamed the fire on The boom in demand has led to indus-
Nygård staged campaign to “faulty electricals” and an autopsy had try-wide supply chain problems and left
attributed the house manager’s death to Boeing and rival Airbus struggling to
destroy hedge fund manager coronary artery disease. deliver jets to big customers.
Bacon’s defamation case, filed in 2015, Boeing warned last month that a pro-
personally and professionally was just one of the pile of lawsuits duction issue on the Max would hamper
spawned by the battle between the deliveries in the short term, which Rya-
ANDREW EDGECLIFFE-JOHNSON neighbours, including one featuring nair said would lead to a small number
NEW YORK
allegations of firebombing and a fabri- of flight cancellations this summer.
It started, as so many disputes between cated murder-for-hire plot. Ryanair yesterday said that the sub-
neighbours do, with a shared driveway. Bacon alone brought 11 lawsuits to stantial new order would allow it to
To reach Peter Nygård’s six-acre prop- identify people behind the smears increase traffic by 80 per cent over the
erty in the Bahamas, with its smoking before the defamation case, said Jenny
volcanoes, Mayan temple, and pools Afia, a partner of Schillings in London
where a glass barrier once reputedly who has represented him since 2010.
The carrier says the
separated swimmers from sharks, Lawyers for Bacon, now resident in the order will allow it to
guests needed to take a road owned by UK, told the court he had spent more
the man next door, hedge fund manager than $53mn on legal and investigative
increase traffic by 80%
Louis Bacon. work to counteract Nygård’s campaign. over the next decade
They came for events that Nygård Nygård paid more than two dozen
called “pamper parties”, nights of people to pursue his campaign against next decade, and forecast passenger
“karaoke and dancing and massaging”, his neighbour, according to Bacon’s numbers to increase from 168mn pas-
in the Finnish-Canadian clothing spokesperson, but few came to his sengers at the end of March this year to
mogul’s words, where the decibel count defence after the court order. 300mn by March 2034.
and the lines of parked cars would drive “I was long gone before he went to Some 150 of the new aircraft will be
Bacon to distraction. jail,” said a former publicist, who added used to replace Ryanair’s older Boeing
The gated-community feud began that he would never have approved the 737NG planes.
more than a decade ago with Nygård smear tactics exposed in court. Another The airline said the agreement would
alleging that Bacon’s repaving of the former spokesman, and a former law- create more than 10,000 new jobs for
road had created foul-smelling puddles yer, were similarly keen to stress that pilots, cabin crew and engineers.
on his Lyford Cay property. It culmi- they had not worked for him in years. Ryanair chief executive Michael
nated last week in a $203mn damages In its damages brief, Bacon’s legal O’Leary had spent much of the past
award against Nygård that was as strik- team wrote that he “should today be 18 months criticising Boeing and its
ing for its details as for its size. enjoying quiet days as an elder of the leadership over its prices, and the pro-
Layn Phillips, the judge appointed investment industry. Instead, he is now duction problems that have led to
to referee Bacon’s defamation case probably best known as one of the puta- delays and setbacks in the delivery of its
against Nygård, concluded that the evi- A closed New alleged in 2020. He has maintained his Nygård had illegally doubled his prop- Protesters tive combatants in Vanity Fair’s Battle of aircraft in the past two years.
dence against the 81-year-old from York outlet of innocence in those cases and in the defa- erty’s acreage by pumping sand from the Billionaires.” But O’Leary said the talks on the
incendiary messages, tapes, whistle- the chain run by mation lawsuit. the surrounding seabed. allegedly Bacon is still running Moore Capital order, which restarted earlier this year,
blowers, and “insiders to [his] scheme” Peter Nygård, The pile-up of allegations has brought It focused on “malicious falsehoods” were paid to but closed its flagship funds to outside had accelerated faster than expected.
was “stunning”. below, who has an end to the affordable-clothing that went far beyond issues such as money in 2019. “I think he feels it’s been “We have been pleasantly surprised
Nygård had spent $15mn on a relent- been ordered to empire whose Times Square flagship Nygård’s allegations about loudspeak- carry signs an ordeal, and I think he feels a great by the meeting of minds” between the
less smear campaign to destroy person- pay Louis Bacon, once featured his name in seven storey- ers that Bacon had supposedly pointed and wear deal of relief that this chapter can be put two companies, he said, adding that the
ally and professionally the founder of right, $203mn high letters. at his 150,000 sq ft mansion. (Police to bed now,” Afia said. rebound in the industry was another
Moore Capital Management, Phillips after spreading With Nygård’s businesses in bank- raided Bacon’s home but concluded that T-shirts Nygård could appeal against the defa- factor driving the deal. “If we didn’t
ruled, as he handed down the largest false rumours ruptcy and the possibility of an appeal, the speakers did not constitute “ultra- portraying mation verdict, but the judge noted that move quickly, there was a danger we
damages award ever seen in a New York about the Moore it is uncertain whether Bacon will see a sonic weaponry”.) he had failed to submit an opposition at would have been looking at later deliv-
state court. Capital founder dollar of the damages he has won. Some of the defamatory statements Louis the final court hearings of the case. eries in 2028 or 2029.”
The man accused of giving “global and Brendan McDermid/Reuters
The New York court did not touch on painted Bacon as a white supremacist, Bacon, Nygård’s story appears very different The deal will also allow Ryanair to
multimedia distribution” to a barrage of the claims in the Canadian and DoJ the court said, highlighting rallies in from the rags-to-riches tale he once told offer lower fares in Europe, O’Leary
defamatory statements made no com- cases. Nor did it revisit the two men’s Nassau in which Nygård allegedly paid below, as a of growing up in a converted coal shed said. The airline selected the largest ver-
ment after the ruling. early quarrel over an assertion that hundreds of protesters to wear T-shirts Klansman before dating a Playboy Playmate and sion of the Max, which he said will have
Nygård is in a jail cell in Toronto, and carry signs painting Bacon as a Ku being photographed with George Bush 21 per cent more seats but burn 20 per
where he faces charges of sexual assault Klux Klan member. Sr, Oprah Winfrey, and Prince Andrew. cent less fuel than the airline’s current
and forcible confinement that are ech- Nygård also spread false rumours The man who once said that he had 737NGs.
oed in another case in Quebec. He is due about Bacon’s business ethics, the court been “reversing my ageing” using stem Ryanair chief financial
to face trial in Toronto in September and found. Bacon’s lawyers alleged that cell treatment told a Manitoba court in officer Neil Sorahan said the new air-
is awaiting extradition to the US, where Nygård had urged the editor of one 2021 that he was frail and sick from his craft would cut costs by 10 per cent
he has been charged with racketeering, Bahamas publication to run a doctored carbohydrate-heavy prison diet. excluding fuel, compared with the older
sex trafficking, and related crimes version of a Financial Times headline His video appearances in court con- 737NGs which are still in service.
involving “at least dozens” of women linking him to insider trading. trast starkly with the confidence he He said this would allow the airline to
and minor-aged girls. Other smears implicated the hedge once exhibited. In a 2016 interview at a cement its cost advantage over rivals
At his parties in the Bahamas and at fund manager in arson, after a destruc- “Night of 100 Stars” party he sponsored, and fuel further growth, estimating that
sex clubs from Miami to Winnipeg, tive 2009 fire on Nygård’s property, and Nygård was asked the secret of his busi- Ryanair would carry 30 per cent of all
Nygård pressured victims to engage in even in murder, following the death in ness success. “It’s really just persever- European short-passengers if it hits the
sexual activity to which they had not 2010 of Bacon’s house manager. ance, you know,” he said. “I’ve had what target of 300mn passengers in the
consented, the Department of Justice Bacon’s lawyers told the court that an you call permanent success.” 2030s.

Banks Media

Credit Suisse chief Körner to join UBS board Global task force to tackle online sports piracy
OWEN WALKER — LONDON “Please remember, your new col- respective UBS executive board mem- DANIEL THOMAS some of their illegal access, and many a Morocco-based operation days before
WILLIAM LANGLEY — HONG KONG
leagues are not your competitors,” he bers, UBS said. The new appointments were willing to pay to switch to legiti- the Fifa World Cup in Qatar last year.
Live sports streaming service DAZN
UBS has said Credit Suisse chief execu- said in a memo. “Our rivals are those will come into effect when the transac- mate providers. “Intellectual property theft of live
and broadcaster beIN are backing a
tive Ulrich Körner will join its executive outside of the combined firm who are tion closes. The task force will be run by the Alli- sports content is an industry issue, neg-
new global task force to crack down on
board to help steer the integration of actively trying to take advantage of the Beatriz Martin Jimenez, head of the ance for Creativity and Entertainment, atively impacting all sports and sports
sports piracy that is costing the indus-
the bank, as rivals attempt to capitalise current situation to poach clients, busi- UK for UBS and group treasurer, will be a Los Angeles-based anti-piracy coali- fans, and needs a global concerted effort
try tens of billions of dollars a year.
on what is likely to be a fraught process. ness and talent.” head of non-core and legacy — responsi- tion. It will co-ordinate Ace’s efforts to to meaningfully tackle it,” said Shay
Santander is among the competitors ble for overseeing parts of the business The new group will aim to identify and target sports piracy operations and Segev, DAZN’s chief executive.
Körner, who was drafted in as CEO last seeking to poach staff from Credit that are being wound down — as well as target sports piracy operations and will work with police and other partners. Ed McCarthy, DAZN chief operations
year to help revive the lender’s fortunes, Suisse, while Deutsche Bank has already head of Europe, the Middle East and work with police and organisations such Working with beIN, Ace has already officer, said the task force would work
will help the execution of the most sig- recruited several managing directors. Africa. She will retain her UK role, but a as Interpol and Europol to pursue targeted several sports piracy rings in with broadcasters and rights holders to
nificant banking takeover since the The appointment of Körner to the successor as group treasurer will be enforcement actions to close them. the past year, including the shutdown of pursue “criminal gangs who are damag-
financial crisis. The Swiss-German, who board was the highest-profile of several named in due course. UBS has also According to a study released by Syn- ing sport at all levels, often using fans’
previously worked at UBS, would be changes announced by UBS yesterday. installed Stefan Seiler as head of human amedia, tackling global sports piracy credit cards and data for illegal pur-
“responsible for ensuring Credit Suisse’s Michelle Bereaux, a 23-year UBS vet- resources and corporate services. could lead to an additional $28bn of poses”. It would also seek to challenge
operational continuity and client focus”, eran, was appointed group integration After the deal is completed, the two annual revenue for the industry. governments, regulators and blue-chip
UBS said yesterday. officer. businesses will initially operate as sepa- Many major sports events are heavily companies that facilitate the theft of
The installation of Körner on the Todd Tuckner, currently finance rate entities, with each serving their pirated on illegal streams. The problem content, he added.
board comes as the $3.25bn takeover of chief of its wealth management division, own clients and dealing with counter- is growing as more international online According to the Global Innovation
Credit Suisse, a deal orchestrated by will succeed Sarah Youngwood as chief parties. services find ways around local rules on Policy Center, overall content piracy
Swiss regulators in March, is set to be financial officer. Youngwood, who UBS said Credit Suisse would continue broadcasting. could cost as much as $71bn a year in
completed within a matter of weeks. joined UBS last year, will leave the bank. to use its governance and risk control There is often a cost even to use illegal lost revenues. One-third of pirate sites
UBS chief Sergio Ermotti warned staff All existing Credit Suisse executive frameworks, though UBS would imple- broadcasts. The industry study found also target consumers with malware,
yesterday to expect “tense and difficult board members who are also division ment new policies to boost its oversight more than half of sports fans watching Boxing clever: the industry aims to according to a report by the Digital Citi-
moments ahead”. heads will report to Körner and their of the business. pirate streams were paying for at least win back a potential $28bn in sales zens Alliance.
Wednesday 10 May 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 11

COMPANIES & MARKETS

VW fights to recapture lost glory in China

German carmaker shifts strategy as tech-savvy homegrown rivals widen their lead over once-prized foreign brands
EDWARD WHITE — SEOUL enmeshed in the local EV supply chain,
PATRICIA NILSSON — FRANKFURT
they added.
In 1978, a Chinese delegation dressed in “Volkswagen is a giant of fuel vehi-
Mao suits travelled to Wolfsburg with a cles . . . It is like asking an elephant to
stunning message for the men running turn around,” the former executive said.
Volkswagen: Deng Xiaoping’s China was The Shanghai-based consultant to
open for business. VW said its China team was also suffer-
Now, after four decades building the ing from an outdated software platform
world’s biggest car market from scratch for new vehicles.
and profiting from the rise of an eco- “They can offer beautiful cars also
nomic superpower, the automaker has with an electric battery, that is no prob-
suddenly found itself fighting for its lem at all, but the software is just so out-
position in China. dated, it is just embarrassing,” he said.
While the German group, which “Maybe for Europe it is good enough
includes Porsche and Audi, sells more for a few more years. For China very
cars in China than any other company, quickly that will run into a dead end. If
its flagship VW brand was recently they cannot solve that they will have a
dethroned as the country’s best-selling ‘hole’ in new product launches for
car by BYD, the Shenzhen-based con- maybe one or two years — that can
glomerate backed by Warren Buffett. really kill a company,” he added. In a
The German company is falling sign of deepening trouble for VW, the
behind in the fast-growing electric car company on Monday removed almost
segment, where the VW brand sits in all of the executives at its software arm.
ninth place with a market share of just 2 VW’s joint venture commitments in
per cent. BYD, which holds the top spot, China pose another issue.
has nearly 40 per cent and Elon Musk’s Spurred by Tesla’s commitment to
Tesla, in second place, has more than 10 build EVs in Shanghai, Beijing in 2018
per cent. lifted restrictions on foreign ownership
Chinese makers of electric vehicles, of auto manufacturers. But analysts said
which include plug-in hybrid and bat- VW and other foreign groups were
tery-powered cars, dominate in their afraid to upset their longstanding JV
own market and are also expanding partners and the lucrative business they
aggressively overseas. China overtook generated.
Germany in auto exports in 2022 and is “They will continue to milk the cow,
set to eclipse Japan as the world’s biggest but the cow isn’t going to survive much
car exporter this year. longer,” said Bill Russo, the former head
VW, one of Germany’s largest and China’s passenger vehicle sales ... ... and its EV market of Chrysler in China and founder of
most prestigious companies, depends By brand origin (% of total) 2023 year-to-date sales Shanghai-based consultancy Automo-
on China for at least half of its annual Share (%) Year-on-year change (%) bility.
profits, which last year reached €22bn. Local Fears over angering Chinese partners
Foreign 0 10 20 30 40 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Its position in the race for EV market and officials also complicate the future
share is placing the future security of 100 BYD BYD of the company’s plant in Xinjiang, the
those earnings in jeopardy. Tesla Tesla western region where the state has been
Despite this backdrop, VW executives 75 GAC (Aion) GAC (Aion) accused of committing widespread
still did not appreciate the threat they SAIC-GM-Wuling SAIC-GM-Wuling human rights abuses against Uyghur
faced in China, a Shanghai-based con- 50
and other Muslim groups.
Changan Changan
sultant to the German group said. VW has ruled out closing down the
“A lot of people in Volkswagen have Geely Geely factory. It has ducked pressure from
been working there their entire lives; I 25 Li Auto Li Auto politicians, human rights activists and
don’t think they can imagine Volkswa- Nio Nio its own union, arguing that it must hon-
gen not being in existence. That is actu- 0 Volkswagen Volkswagen our its contract with partner SAIC
ally what is at stake at the moment,” the 2017 18 19 20 21 22 23 Neta Neta despite having already abandoned plans
person added. to use the plant for the production of a
Source: Automobility
VW said profitability mattered more new model.
to the company than volume. “Quality In an internal memo in February,
of business takes precedence over quan- Proud moment: company last year moved Ralf Brand- When Brandstätter took the stage at Decisions over design and engineer- ‘I don’t Brandstätter told employees he had
tity,” it said. the first VW stätter, its board member responsible the Shanghai auto show last month, he ing problems get stalled between Wolfs- made his first visit to the Xinjiang fac-
The company last week reported bet- Santana to be for China, to Beijing to work in “close did not address the worsening geopoliti- burg and the group’s numerous Chinese think [staff] tory, citing “deep concern” over reports
ter than expected sales for the first produced in collaboration” with its three main joint cal climate but instead sought to answer offices and factories. VW cars are devel- can imagine of human rights violations.
quarter, boosted by Europe and North China is venture partners, Chinese state-owned how the company plans to win back cus- oped in Germany for European custom- While the memo did not address
America. But in China, deliveries fell 15 unveiled in 1983. auto companies FAW, SAIC and JAC. tomers. ers before models are tweaked to Volkswagen human rights abuse allegations at the
per cent. VW said it was confident its Below, a Porsche VW’s new strategy is touted as “in A new €1bn innovation centre would become China-made for Chinese con- not being in plant, Brandstätter said the factory was
new model range and “China-specific 911 Carrera S on China, for China”, a plan to localise pro- build on the €2.4bn investment in Hori- sumers. ‘‘of a high standard overall”. He
technology” would help sales pick up in display in duction in the country as a way to insu- zon Robotics, a Chinese chip design For years this set-up posed few prob- existence. described a separate canteen exclu-
the latter part of the year. Shanghai —Zhe Ji/ late against supply chain shocks and company, announced late last year, lems. US and Japanese rivals did the That is sively for halal dishes and a “learning
Geopolitics further complicates the Getty Images
deepening divisions between the west Brandstätter said. VW’s software arm same and Chinese consumers placed a island” where workers can study the
outlook for the company. Germany, and China. Cariad would also double its engineers premium on all things foreign. Yet today actually Uyghur language.
which was forced to grapple with its reli- in China to 1,200. it has left staff feeling hamstrung and what is at Just as VW’s China operations come
ance on Russian gas following Russia’s The multibillion-dollar spending plan disempowered as their Chinese rivals under pressure, fast-growing Chinese
full-scale invasion of Ukraine, is worried would slash the time spent developing unveil smart driving technologies and stake at the companies such as Li Auto, Xpeng and
about its economic dependence on products by almost a third and give new EV models. moment’ Nio are pushing their mass-market cars
China under President Xi Jinping. more autonomy for local decision mak- According to one former VW execu- ever closer to autonomous driving func-
Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s for- ing, he added. tive, who left the company in recent tionality.
eign minister, said after a brief visit to “The needs of Chinese customers and years to join a top Chinese EV maker, The former VW executive in China
Beijing in April that China was becom- requirements are different to other the company was paying the price for said the company had been too “slow to
ing a “systemic rival”. regions of the world,” said VW’s chief being conservative on EVs as other grasp” just how technology-focused Chi-
At the same time, VW risks angering executive Oliver Blume, standing beside groups “tested the waters”. nese consumers had become, which had
Beijing by responding to growing west- Brandstätter at the auto show wearing Now, as it tried to pivot to electric resulted in a wide gap between the serv-
ern pressure over human rights abuses starch-white trainers. “It is very impor- models, VW remained “highly depend- ices and features offered by China’s
in Xinjiang, the site of one of its smallest tant for all of our developments to be ent” on major suppliers that made parts homegrown EV makers and those avail-
factories. very close to the customers.” for internal combustion engines, the able in the German group’s cars.
This has not slowed VW down: in the But among industry consultants, ana- former executive said. This meant it had “It is like comparing iPhones with
past year alone it has announced invest- lysts and former VW staff, there is scep- fallen behind not only Chinese rivals but Nokias 10 years ago.”
ments in China worth almost €4bn. The ticism over the carmaker’s China plan. also Tesla, which was becoming deeply Additional reporting by Nian Liu in Beijing

Technology Notice to Advertisers

Calls to the Financial Times Advertising Department

Glencore plans Europe’s biggest battery recycling plant may be monitored.

Acceptance of any advertisement for publication will

be subject to the then current terms and conditions of
insertion of advertisements in FT publications.
HARRY DEMPSEY He added that the unit’s growth was That would be enough to recycle bat- “We will do a study and then could A copy of the terms and conditions of insertion of
expected to be “exponential” because teries from 600,000 used electric cars. subsequently develop the largest bat- advertisements in FT publications can be obtained
Glencore has plans to build Europe’s from
tens of millions of electric vehicles Recycling is set to play an important tery recycling hub in Europe,” he said.
largest battery recycling plant as it +44 (0)20 7873 3000, or viewed at www.FT.com/
worldwide would be due for recycling in role in easing the demand for primary However, recycling is fraught with advertising
seeks to grow its natural resources
anywhere between eight and 15 years’ raw materials from mines, especially risk because it is difficult to predict
business on the back of the switch to
time. given Europe’s lack of domestic mining when large volumes of EV batteries can
electric cars.
Tim Johnston, co-founder and chair supply. be processed due to difficulties in fore-
The Switzerland-based company, one of of Li-Cycle, said: “This is a landmark Li-Cycle predicts that 10 per cent of casting their lifespan in EVs and second Contracts & Tenders
the world’s largest diversified natural project for Europe’s battery recycling Europe’s lithium demand will be satis- use in industries such as energy storage.
resources groups with commodity trad- industry.” He added: “These assets are fied by recycled supply by 2030. In North America, Li-Cycle has built a
ing and mining arms, is launching a joint needed soon.” EU legislators have proposed that bat- large black mass processing hub in
study with Canada’s Li-Cycle into build- The plans at the Sardinia site involve teries in EVs must contain above a cer- Rochester near New York. The site is
ing the facility in Italy by 2027. recycling disused portable electronics, tain threshold of recycled raw materials half the size of the planned facility in
The London-listed company, which scrap from battery manufacturing and from 2030, rising to 20 per cent for Sardinia and cost $485mn.
has a 10 per cent stake in Li-Cycle, aims old EV batteries to create lithium, nickel cobalt, 10 per cent for lithium and 12 per While the cost of the Sardinia plant is
to repurpose its zinc and lead smelter in and cobalt supplies. cent for nickel five years later, as well as yet to be fixed, the two companies said it
Sardinia to produce lithium, nickel and The plant will be capable of process- setting recycling recovery rate targets. was less capital-intensive than Roches-
cobalt, key metals used to make batter- ing up to 50,000 to 70,000 tonnes of Kunal Sinha, head of recycling at ter because they could use existing
ies for electric cars. black mass — shredded batteries that Glencore, said the group intended to infrastructure in Italy to help keep
Converting the 94-year-old site would would undergo hydrometallurgical meet growing demand from automak- prices down.
extend Glencore’s control over the sup- processes to extract the raw materials. ers for circular metal supplies. The site marks a key expansion in
ply of critical raw materials needed by Europe for Li-Cycle. It has a shredding
carmakers. The facility site in Germany set to open in mid-2023
It would also give the company a lead- planned for with further sites to follow in Norway
ing role in battery recycling, while bol- Glencore’s and France.
stering its portfolio of copper, nickel and Sardinia site will Under an expected 50-50 joint ven-
cobalt mines. It has already established recycle disused ture agreement, Glencore would pro-
itself as one of the world’s largest metal portable vide low-cost capital to Li-Cycle, which
recyclers. electronics, would take the lead on the engineering
Glencore’s chief executive Gary Nagle scrap from of the plant and repay its Swiss partner
has said that recycling already contrib- battery making through the asset’s cash flows.
utes $200mn to $250mn of the com- and old EV The feasibility study is due for com-
pany’s earnings before interest, taxes, batteries pletion in mid-2024 with operations set
depreciation and amortisation, which to begin at the end of 2026 or early 2027,
was $34.1bn in total in 2022. if a final investment decision is made.
12 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Wednesday 10 May 2023

UK COMPANIES

England’s water companies face day of reckoning Technology

Activision
Nathalie As politicians take aim at the water private sewage and water companies ulator for England and Wales as the controlled under five-year regulatory
taps barrister
Thomas
utilities, some of the industry’s cannier
executives are forgoing bonuses as the
paid out £1.4bn in dividends last year,
up from £540mn in 2021, despite an
issue looks set to become a battleground
ahead of the next election. Scotland’s
cycles, to 2023-25 from 2025-30. Just
over £1bn of that is aimed at reducing Pannick for
Microsoft deal
spotlight turns to companies’ opaque outcry over the sewage crisis. Other water system is already in state hands. the number of annual average spills
business models and the dividends paid criticisms surrounding the industry The regulator, Ofwat, came in for from storm overflows by 10,000.
while sewage has been flowing. include lax regulation and high levels of fierce criticism from a House of Lords The problem for both of the leading
The chief executive and chief finan- water leakages. committee in March. It was accused of parties and companies alike is that rena-
block battle
F
cial officer of Thames Water, plus the Where is the government in this? It’s failing to ensure companies invested tionalisation remains popular. Labour
irst it was the railways. Then it heads of South West Water and York- true that ministers haven’t been sitting sufficiently in necessary infrastructure. has dropped the plan of Jeremy Corbyn
was the energy suppliers. Now shire Water, have all in the past 24 hours on their hands. Environment secretary to bring back into state ownership sev-
it’s England’s water compa- decided to — in the words of the latter — Thérèse Coffey has pledged to enshrine eral industries, including water and
nies. One by one, Britain’s do “the right thing”. in law a 2050 sewage reduction target,
A poll has suggested that energy, yet renationalisation of water is
TIM BRADSHAW AND JANE CROFT

Activision Blizzard has hired legal

former state-owned industries Other executives, including those first published last year. the sector is high among favoured by unions and several cam-
heavyweight Lord David Pannick KC,
are facing their day of reckoning. below chief level, would be wise to fol- Unfortunately, say campaigners, that paign groups. A YouGov poll in October
This time, it’s not a broken franchis- low. But other more stringent actions, target is backed by weak interim goals.
industries Britons would suggested the sector was also high
whose cases include former UK prime
minister Boris Johnson’s “partygate”
ing system or poorly capitalised compa- including rethinking medium-term They also worry that it shifts responsi- like to see in public hands among the industries Britons would like
probe, to lead its fight against the Brit-
nies offering customers cut-price sewage reduction targets, will be needed bility to the government rather than the to see in public hands.
ish competition regulator’s decision to
energy deals that have opened the flood- for anger to subside. water companies. The phased targets The Environment Agency has also Water groups say they have invested
block its $75bn deal with Microsoft.
gates. It’s something more unpleasant: Charities and campaign groups that meant that the pace of reduction would found itself under an uncomfortable more than £190bn since privatisation
raw sewage. have for years diligently monitored sew- be “pretty slow” in reaching higher lev- spotlight. and are taking voluntary actions to Pannick, of Blackstone Chambers,
Public anger has burst over water age spills — without which the level of els, said Richard Benwell of the Wildlife Ofwat has been trying to prove it is reduce overflow spills. They are yet to described by a legal guide as an “undis-
companies spilling untreated effluent the crisis would not now be known — are and Countryside Link. He worried that not deaf to the clamour. It has win round critics. They and ministers puted leader at the bar”, will represent
into England’s rivers, lakes and seas as a riding a wave. One such group, Surfers the targets would add “another 20 announced several measures, including must up the ante if they want to avoid the creator of the hit video game Call of
system that has suffered from decades Against Sewage, is planning further years” of some degree of sewage outflow powers to penalise water companies fuelling the renationalisation debate. Duty in its legal challenge at the Compe-
of under-investment struggles to cope. nationwide protests on May 20. into sensitive wildlife sites unless they that pay out dividends regardless of This is a flood that will not easily tition Appeal Tribunal, according to
Last year, discharges equated to a rate of Shortly before the announcements on were tightened. environmental performance. It has pro- drain away. people familiar with the hiring.
more than 825 a day, according to Envi- bonus payments, the Financial Times Labour plans to target weak regula- posed to accelerate £1.6bn of water The move comes two weeks after the
ronment Agency data. published an analysis showing that tion. It is drawing up plans for a new reg- company investment, which is tightly nathalie.thomas@ft.com Competition and Markets Authority
delivered a potentially fatal blow to the
blockbuster takeover by concluding
that it would hand Microsoft an unfair
Retail advantage in the nascent cloud gaming

Law firm for CBI

market.
Bobby Kotick, chief executive of Cali-
fornia-based Activision, last month
vowed to fight to conclude the deal, call-
ing the CMA’s decision a sign that the UK

in war of words
was “clearly closed for business”. Micro-
soft president Brad Smith warned that
the move “discourages technology inno-
vation and investment” in the country.

with Tesco chair

Activision’s decision to bring in Pan-
nick, widely seen as one of the top bar-
risters of his generation with former cli-
ents including Queen Elizabeth II, is a
sign of how seriously it is taking the
threat that the UK’s intervention could
kill its hopes of completing the games
Fox Williams denies it tunity to give an account to the CBI via industry’s biggest deal.
Fox Williams which, as far as we are Pannick represented businesswoman
chose not to probe claims aware, he has chosen not to do,” it said.
about business leader Yesterday evening, however, a
The decision to bring in
spokesperson for Allan said that his law-
LAURA ONITA AND PETER FOSTER yers had confirmed on April 4 that he Pannick is a sign of how
wished for Fox Williams to investigate
A war of words has erupted between the allegations against him, and fol-
seriously the business is
John Allan, the Tesco chair, and a law lowed up on April 21, but the law firm taking the intervention
firm instructed by the CBI in the latest chose not to meet him.
embarrassment to hit the scandal-hit “Instead, on April 23 2023, Fox Wil- Gina Miller in her two Brexit-related
lobby group. liams offered to forward a statement victories against the UK government,
Fox Williams disputed yesterday from Mr Allan to the CBI although con- notably in 2019 when the Supreme
Allan’s assertion that it had chosen not firmed that their investigation had Court declared that Johnson’s proroga-
to investigate allegations of inappropri- already concluded,” they added. tion of parliament was unlawful.
ate conduct made against Allan, a Fox Williams confirmed that Allan’s The barrister, who has been a cross-
former CBI president, which were lawyers contacted it but that the firm bench peer since 2008, went on to
reported by the Guardian newspaper. was “not permitted to speak to all indi- advise Johnson last year over partygate,
Allan in turn challenged the law firm’s viduals involved in the allegations made when the House of Commons privileges
version of events, calling it “incorrect”. by the Guardian. Mr Allan was made committee investigated illegal parties
Allan has denied three separate alle- aware of this.” held at Downing Street during Covid-19
gations of inappropriate behaviour The CBI did not respond to a request pandemic lockdowns.
towards women, saying they are “sim- for comment. In a career spanning more than
ply untrue”. He told the Guardian that The three allegations denied by Allan four decades, Pannick has also repre-
he had requested law firm Fox Williams include two separate alleged incidents sented clients as varied as the Kingdom
to investigate the allegations but the
firm had “decided not to”.
of touching a woman’s bottom at a CBI
dinner in May 2019, and during Tesco’s Deloitte probe Deloitte is under investigation by the
UK accounting regulator over its
last year as higher freight rates and
rising wages contributed to the
of Saudi Arabia, businessman Roland
“Tiny” Rowland, former Formula 1

Watchdog
The CBI had previously instructed annual shareholder meeting in June last auditing of clothing retailer Joules, collapse of the 132-shop business. boss Max Mosley, pornography distrib-
Fox Williams to investigate allegations year. Allan has also denied a claim that which fell into administration last year. Next bought most of the company utors Sheptonhurst, and Diana, Prin-
of sexual harassment, bullying and in 2021 he made comments about a The Financial Reporting Council said out of administration for £34mn in cess of Wales.
other workplace misconduct after more
than a dozen women made complaints
woman’s bottom.
A fourth allegation in which Allan checks quality yesterday that its probe would cover
the audit of Joules’s accounts for the
December in a deal that allowed
founder Tom Joule to take a 26 per
In 2003, he acted for Queen Elizabeth,
winning an injunction against the Daily

of Joules audit
about a toxic culture at the organisation. admitted to telling a female CBI financial year ended May 2021. cent stake. Mirror newspaper after a reporter
However, Fox Williams denied Allan’s employee that her dress “suited her fig- If Deloitte’s audit is found to have The Deloitte investigation is the posed as a Buckingham Palace footman.
version of events. “It is not correct that ure” in November 2019 was resolved to failed to meet the required standards, latest by the FRC into the audit of a Educated at Hertford College, Oxford,
Fox Williams decided not to investigate the satisfaction of both sides. Allan has the firm could face a significant fine. company which has fallen into before qualifying as a barrister in 1979,
the allegations made against Mr Allan previously said that he had been “morti- The regulator can also force auditors to administration. It is already looking Pannick is recognised for his handling of
by the Guardian,” the firm said. fied” by the comment and “immedi- take action to avoid a repeat of into EY’s auditing of retailer high-level cases in UK and international
It added that the scope of its probe at ately apologised”. problems, including providing training Made.com, PwC’s audits of property law. The latest Chambers UK legal guide
the CBI had been limited to whether or Tesco said the 74-year-old had never to staff or improving their processes. group Intu, Mazars’ work at Studio describes him as an “outstanding public
not senior managers knew of workplace been the subject of a complaint since Deloitte, which was paid an audit fee Retail Group and BDO’s auditing of law silk”, known for handling the “most
misconduct claims before they becoming chair in 2015, and that it did of £225,000 for the 2021 financial year, construction group NMCN. significant high-profile human rights
appeared in the press, and by an ongo- not receive complaints or concerns had audited Joules since it floated on Deloitte said it would “co-operate cases before domestic, European and
ing police investigation into two rape about his conduct at the annual meeting London’s Aim in 2016. fully” with the investigation and was international courts” over the past 20
allegations at the CBI. in June 2022. Tesco added that it took all The retailer, which listed Catherine, “committed to the highest standards years.
It added that Allan had declined to concerns or complaints about conduct Princess of Wales, and singer Taylor of audit quality”. Blackstone Chambers did not
provide further information to the CBI. “very seriously” and investigated them Swift among its customers, hit trouble Michael O’Dwyer and Laura Onita immediately respond to a request for
“Mr Allan was provided with the oppor- thoroughly. comment.
Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

Pharmaceuticals Insurance

Ascend raises $130mn to buy biotech labs Direct Line warns of inflation hit to earnings
HANNAH KUCHLER with Big Pharma and royalty licensing nologies are expanding their production IAN SMITH prices were catching up across the sec- single-digit percentage. The group had
deals. But they are also cutting staff and of cell and gene therapies in the UK. tor. The latest quarterly index, from “made good progress towards target
A UK biotech group has raised $130mn Direct Line said the rising costs of
looking for ways to make money from Bali Muralidhar, chief investment price comparison website Con- margins”, it said, but this focus on lifting
to buy manufacturing facilities and repairing damaged motor vehicles
their existing assets. officer of Abingworth, a venture capital fused.com and broker Willis Towers prices meant a 2.5 per cent fall in overall
expert teams from cash-strapped cell could hit its earnings this year, the lat-
With the public markets shut to loss- group that co-led the funding round, Watson, said the cost of car insurance in-force policies across the quarter.
and gene therapy start-ups, capitalis- est warning from the insurer that rising
making biotechs, Ascend will offer said European companies without their had risen by a fifth in the past 12 months There was better news on severe
ing on the sell-off in the sector. inflation was harming its business.
funds to the makers of complex drugs own manufacturing tended to face to its highest since 2011. That put the weather-related claims, which were
Ascend is trying to address a capacity by purchasing their facilities. longer waits than their US counterparts. Rising claims costs were expected to average policy in the UK at £657. “modest” in the first quarter and “well
bottleneck that slows the treatments Fred Cohen, chair of Ascend, said cap- Muralidhar said the Potters Bar site, “put pressure” on earnings this year, Acting chief executive Jon Greenwood within” expectations, which project an
getting to patients, providing expertise at the centre of the so-called Golden Tri- including the level of reserves it could called Direct Line’s earnings outlook £80mn hit across the year.
to manufacture the tricky-to-make angle for life sciences between Oxford, release from prior-year claims, the In home insurance, a smaller business
products and help with increased regu-
‘Four years ago, no one was Cambridge and London, could bolster insurer said in an update yesterday. Its line for the group, Direct Line said it had
latory scrutiny of the therapies. worried about spending the UK’s cell and gene therapy industry. shares fell 7.6 per cent in London. Direct Line has
suffered along
“observed significant price increases
The company, founded by specialist Ascend hopes that by specialising in After a lull in claims during the pan- across the market”.
venture capital firm Monograph Capital
$35mn to get into the manufacturing these therapies the com- demic, motor insurers have suffered as
with other insurers
from the rising The group’s solvency level was
at the start of last year, has already [manufacturing] business’ pany can bring down production costs. the price of second-hand cars, car parts price of car parts “broadly unchanged” since the year-
bought a Potters Bar site from Cancer Ascend raised early stage funding in a and labour have surged. Insurers have and labour end, and it reiterated its expectations
Research UK, the German manufactur- ital expenditure was a real issue for round co-led by Abingworth and Petri- struggled to keep their prices rising fast that it had several “tailwinds” to its capi-
ing business of Freeline Therapeutics, these companies. “When money was chor in New York, and also included enough to cope with the acceleration in “challenging” but stressed that it con- tal level, including accounting changes.
and a design team in San Francisco. free four years ago, no one was worried funds from 4Bio Capital and DCVC Bio. the cost of repairing or replacing cars. tinued to “take the actions required to Analysts at RBC Capital Markets said
After a glut of early-stage companies about spending $35mn to get into the The company recently hired a new Direct Line chief executive Penny drive business performance”, including the fresh numbers meant there was a
went public in 2020 and 2021, biotech [manufacturing] business, but now chief executive to lead the acquisition James stepped down in January, just on margins. higher risk to Direct Line’s dividend out-
markets have slumped, with the S&P they are no longer in money heaven.” spree to build a specialist maker of the weeks after the company issued its lat- The group’s motor renewal premiums look “in the absence of tangible signs of
XBI index of smaller biotech companies Other companies, including Oxford innovative treatments. Mike Stella was est profit warning and scrapped its final were up 19 per cent year on year as it recovery to both capital and earnings”.
down 50 per cent since February 2021. BioMedica, which helped manufacture the former chief business officer of Cog- dividend. The group has since admitted pushed up prices to try to counter the The warning on rising claims costs
Smaller biotech groups are looking for the Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid-19 vac- nate BioServices, which Charles River it had been guilty of “over-optimism” effects of inflation. “cements our expectations of a dividend
ways to stretch their funds until they cine, the large contract manufacturer Laboratories bought in an $875mn deal about the threat from inflation. It expects claims inflation in motor reset this year”, they added.
can raise more, signing partnerships Catalent and Fujifilm Diosynth Biotech- in 2021. Hopes had risen in recent weeks that and home insurance to run at a high See Lex
Wednesday 10 May 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 13

COMPANIES & MARKETS

Currencies. Lira pressure Fixed income

Commercial
Investors warn of ‘tough period’ property is
ahead for Turkish economy ‘next shoe to
drop’ for
US lenders
ORTENCA ALIAJ, ANTOINE GARA,
HARRIET AGNEW AND ERIC PLATT

Fund managers are warning of growing

problems in the $5.6tn US commercial
real estate industry that could prove
painful for lenders already shaken by
turmoil in the banking sector.
Rising interest rates, falling prices and
waning demand for office space
after the pandemic had strained the
commercial property market.
But these troubles intensified after
this year’s failures of Silicon Valley
Bank, Signature Bank and First
Republic raised worries about other
regional banks that account for the bulk
of commercial real estate loans.
“The private market hasn’t started to
heavily mark down real estate,” Apollo
Global Management co-president Scott
Kleinman told the Financial Times.
“The equity will be first. That’s the next
shoe to drop in the US. Like everything
else, it has been priced so tightly and
there hasn’t been a commercial real
estate crisis in the US since the ‘90s.”
Anne Walsh, Guggenheim Partners
chief investment officer, said the pain
Managers say winning back Foreign investors ‘abandon’ Turkey’s bond market Writing on would be turning round Turkey’s would be concentrated in certain
Share of domestic central government bonds held by group (%) the wall: the economy, including establishing an regions of the US, including large urban
credibility will be ‘grotesquely election battle independent central bank rather than centres such as San Francisco and New
100
between the current system in which Erdoğan in
difficult’, regardless of election Banks
President Recep effect controls interest rate policy.
Non-banks 80
Tayyip Erdoğan “Whatever happens, it’s going to be a
‘We’re likely going into a
ADAM SAMSON — ANKARA Central bank
60 and Kemal tough period for Turkey,” Curtis said. real estate recession but not
Fund managers warn it will be a Foreigners Kılıçdaroğlu is Investors worry that a big policy
“grotesquely difficult” task to 40 set against a adjustment, while important in the long
across the entire market.
rebuild Turkey’s economy and regain background of run, will be painful in the short term. Lenders will be choosy’
credibility among foreign investors — 20 fears over Curtis said many investors expect
regardless of which party wins this 0 Turkey’s Turkey’s benchmark interest rate will York as well as in second-class office
month’s hotly contested election. economic need to be boosted over time from 8.5 buildings that are in need of repair.
2005 10 15 20 23
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who is leading a trajectory and per cent today to as high as 40 per cent “We’re likely going into a real estate
Data through March 2023
coalition of six opposition parties, has Source: Turkish ministry of finance
attempts to to show that the country is making a recession but not across the entire real
vowed to undertake sweeping reforms rescue the lira credible effort to tame inflation. estate market,” Walsh said. “Lenders
to lure back foreign capital that has fled Ozan Kose/AFP/Getty
A rise in rates of that magnitude will be very choosy about what loans
over the past decade if he unseats trajectory and an ever-rising number of prop up the lira, economists said. would spark a big sell-off in Turkey’s they are willing to make.”
longtime leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan measures to relieve pressure on the lira Net foreign assets, a proxy for the size domestic bond market, Curtis said, She noted that some lenders were
in the presidential election on May 14. have caused investors to flee. of Turkey’s foreign currency war chest, which would be “pretty terrible for requiring personal guarantees from
But while fund managers say change “This is a market that is almost are minus $10bn even after accounting overseas investment” in the short run. property owners — in which borrowers
is needed, some warn that, even if the completely abandoned by foreigners,” for more than $30bn in funds borrowed “You have to be patient,” he said. pledge their own assets to secure a
opposition wins, investors will sit on the said Emre Akcakmak, a senior from local banks through short-term The Erdoğan administration has also mortgage — a signal of the tightening
sidelines until the coalition shows it can consultant at East Capital, a specialist borrowing known as “swaps”, data from increasingly relied on other tools to lending standards and the fact that
bring about durable change. emerging markets fund manager. Turkey’s central bank and Goldman stabilise the lira, including introducing banks were pulling back.
Turkey has “a whole bunch of Less than 1 per cent of Turkey’s Sachs shows. special savings accounts in 2021 that In a Federal Reserve survey released
variables that are in the wrong place and domestic government debt is owned by Some analysts expect Erdoğan could reimburse depositors if the lira weakens on Monday, a majority of US banks said
getting them in the right place will foreigners, down from about a quarter a shift towards a more conventional against foreign currencies. they tightened credit standards for
be grotesquely difficult”, said Paul decade ago. The banking system, economic policy if he wins. These accounts have been instrumen- loans secured by non-residential
McNamara, an emerging markets- including domestic banks and Turkish This speculation has been bolstered tal in keeping local residents from buy- properties in the first quarter while
focused investment director at fund affiliates of foreign lenders, owns nearly by the president’s recent courting of ing dollars and many analysts said this none eased standards.
manager GAM in London. 80 per cent of the local sovereign debt Mehmet Şimşek, a former deputy prime was a big reason why the lira had been A wall of debt is also scheduled for
“Is the money out there? Absolutely, stock from less than 50 per cent in 2013, minister who was well regarded by broadly stable in recent months. repayment in the coming years.
yes. Will people be in a huge hurry to put data from the finance ministry showed. foreign investors but exited government These accounts hold $102bn, accord- “There’s a maturity cliff for a lot of this
it in? I don’t think so,” he added. A similar trend has taken hold in in 2018 when Erdoğan installed his ing to the Turkish bank regulator, and real estate in the next few years, a
The cautious sentiment comes as the Turkish equities market where son-in-law as finance minister. ‘To the economists say they could pose a big significant portion of which is funded by
Erdoğan fights his toughest re-election international investors have yanked “If [Erdoğan] was to change his view risk to the government’s budget if the regional banks,” said the chief executive
campaign after two decades in power. $7.3bn over the past decade, according and adopt a more conventional policy, it market, it lira depreciates rapidly, since depositors of a large US bank. “Commercial
Polls show Kılıçdaroğlu and Erdoğan to Goldman Sachs. will be very well received,” said a senior doesn’t would be reimbursed if the currency real estate is leverage on leverage on
are locked in a tight battle just days “Investors’ allocations to Turkey have EM-focused capital markets banker at a were to fail. leverage . . . if people are forced to
before the election, with voters pointing rarely been lower,” said Kieran Curtis, big Wall Street bank, adding that, if matter a Similarly, unwinding these accounts quickly unwind that leverage, it can pop
to the economy as central. head of emerging market local currency Erdoğan wins, he might “realise now is lot who is could prove difficult because holders up in other places.”
Erdoğan’s unconventional economic debt at UK-based asset manager Abrdn. the time he can pivot and re-attract could choose to purchase dollars and Mathieu Chabran, co-founder of
policies, including a longstanding objec- Akcakmak said Turkey is nearing a foreign funds”. doing the euros en masse, which would send the Our global $43bn alternative asset manager Tike-
tion to raising interest rates, helped “breaking point” under current policies, Curtis added that “to the market, it policy, it’s a lira plummeting. team gives you hau Capital, said: “We see a perfect
send inflation soaring above 85 per cent particularly since the central bank’s doesn’t matter a lot who is doing the “All the steps the opposition [would] market-moving storm of rising interest rates forcing
in October while the lira has tumbled foreign currency reserves have been policy, it’s a matter of them doing the matter of pursue [to repair the economy] are news and views, assets to reprice down, combined with a
almost 60 per cent over the past two “nearly depleted”. policy”. them doing going to create bumps on the road,” said 24 hours a day structural decline in occupation rates
years to a record low against the dollar. The central bank has burnt through Kılıçdaroğlu told the Financial Times Akcakmak. ft.com/markets and ageing assets.”
Concerns over Turkey’s economic reserves as policymakers have tried to last month that one of his priorities the policy’ See FT Big Read Additional reporting by George Hammond

Equities Asset management

Saudi Aramco pledges dividends linked Ireland set to create sovereign wealth
to performance despite drop in profits fund for bumper budget surpluses
SAMER AL-ATRUSH — DUBAI which had a very strong first quarter. is well positioned to withstand JUDE WEBBER — DUBLIN It was not yet clear whether the It has already begun stashing some of
Saudi Aramco made record profits of fluctuating commodity prices through NTMA would contract an asset its windfall tax profits away for a rainy
First-quarter profits at oil group Saudi Ireland plans to set up a sovereign
$161bn in 2022 and increased its its low-cost upstream production and management fund or exactly what day and has a €6bn National Reserve
Aramco dropped almost a fifth after oil wealth fund next year, modelled on
quarterly payout to shareholders to strategically integrated downstream assets the new sovereign wealth fund Fund, invested in low-risk government
prices fell, the company said yesterday, successful ventures in other countries,
almost $20bn as oil prices soared after operations,” it said in a statement. would invest in. bonds. Unlike that fund, the new vehicle
although its share price jumped after it to channel its bumper budget
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The company said it would move The government has long warned that will pursue a diversified investment
promised to introduce performance- surpluses into tackling long-term
The company said it remained well forward with capacity expansion and it cannot rely on huge but volatile strategy, the government said.
linked dividends. cost pressures such as pensions and
positioned despite the decline in prices. downstream investments to meet corporate tax receipts — more than Ireland is torn between the govern-
infrastructure spending.
The company reported $31.9bn in net “Global crude oil prices declined in anticipated demand for petrochemicals. half of which comes from just 10 US ment’s desire to manage what Dermot
income for the period, 19 per cent lower the first quarter of 2023 mainly driven Unlike international peers that Finance minister Michael McGrath corporations — for day-to-day spending. O’Leary, chief economist at stockbroker
than the same period last year. by macroeconomic events contributing pledged to gradually cut oil output to presented a “scoping paper” on a future The Irish government is forecasting a Goodbody, calls an “embarrassment of
However, it also said it planned to market volatility. Aramco believes it reduce emissions, Saudi Aramco is fund to a cabinet meeting yesterday riches” in a prudent fashion and calls to
to introduce performance-linked divi- increasing its maximum crude oil as government finances are awash in plough the surplus cash into tackling a
dends in addition to base dividends with production capacity from 12mn barrels corporate tax receipts from US tech and
‘These are the largest chronic housing crisis that even the cen-
a target payout of 50 to 70 per cent of a day to 13mn b/d while investing in pharma firms based in Ireland. in the euro area. tral bank warned is a potential con-
annual free cash flow. The shares rose lower carbon energy. Ireland expects to net €65bn in straint on the economy.
almost 4 per cent on the news. “We are also moving forward with our budget surpluses between now and
The government has Bumper receipts from tech titans
Increasing dividends would boost capacity expansion and our long-term 2025 and is seeking to future-proof important choices to make’ such as Google and Meta that have large
revenues for the Saudi government, outlook remains unchanged as we its finances in case its corporate tax operations or European headquarters in
which owns more than 90 per cent of believe oil and gas will remain critical bonanza runs out just as it faces spiral- general government surplus for this Ireland have so skewed national
Saudi Aramco shares. components of the global energy mix for ling pensions costs. year of €10bn, rising to €16.2bn next economic data that the country uses a
The first-quarter results slightly the foreseeable future,” chief executive The paper examined similar plans in year, compared with €8bn in 2022. modified measure of economic output
exceeded analysts’ expectations. The Amin Nasser said in the statement. Norway, Japan and Australia and set out Corporation tax is expected to raise to try to paint a more accurate picture.
fall in profits year on year was driven He added: “Our intention is to criteria for the fund, which is to be man- €24.3bn this year, up 7 per cent on 2023. Even so, the government expects a
by the decline in oil and gas prices continue to be a reliable energy supplier aged by the National Treasury Manage- But the government estimates that budget surplus of 3.4 per cent of gross
compared with 2022. with the ability to provide more sustain- ment Agency, the finance ministry said. half of this year’s projected corporate national income this year, swelling to 5.4
Results from European oil majors, able energy solutions, supporting efforts The fund would be intended to be tax revenues could be potential one- per cent next year.
including Shell, showed that they had to achieve an orderly energy transition.” drawn down over time as age-related offs. By 2030, it expects to have to find “These are the largest in the euro
been able to offset more of that decline Saudi Aramco said it was moving Additional reporting by David Sheppard in and other structural expenditure €7bn to €8bn more a year for pensions area,” O’Leary said. “The government
through their larger trading operations, forward with capacity expansion London pressures grow, officials said. than at the start of the decade. has important choices to make.”
14 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Wednesday 10 May 2023

COMPANIES & MARKETS

More must be The day in the markets

done to avoid What you need to know
further bank woe 3 Global stocks retreat ahead of crucial
Shares of Sweden’s real estate companies plunge
US inflation data
3 Swedish real estate sector rattled by Share price performance, rebased (%)

Mohamed El-Erian SBB credit downgrade

3 Treasuries sell off but dollar attracts
buyers
60

Markets Insight
40
Wall Street stocks fell yesterday as
traders awaited crucial data on US
inflation while a sharp sell-off in Sweden’s 20

T
real estate sector overshadowed markets
he US banking tremors are matches between their short-term lia- cient to ensure a timely resolution. in Europe.
evolving. The first phase of bilities and longer-term assets. Their Shareholders saw their holdings lose The benchmark S&P 500 dipped 0.5 0
the turmoil, when sudden balance sheets are further encumbered more than 95 per cent of their value per cent by midday trading in New York
and vast deposit outflows by dodgy commercial real estate loans. before the bank was acquired by JPMor- while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite
from poorly managed and Moreover, they are subject to a regula- gan. Markets now punish the stocks of retreated 0.7 per cent. -20
inadequately supervised banks caused tory regime that has not ensured ade- banks, especially those that talk about Across the Atlantic, the region-wide Sagax
spectacular failures, has been stabilised. quate capital coverage — a lapse that is weighing “strategic options”. This leaves Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.3 per cent as
The current phase, which focuses on amplified by the patchy supervision the door open to vicious cycles. investors grew nervous about the outlook Fastighets AB Balder -40
funding cost and balance sheet issues of that was detailed in the Fed’s own This second phase can also be con- for real estate companies following a year SBB
less problematic banks that happen to assessment of SVB’s failure. They also tained. First, banks must exercise more of aggressive interest rate rises.
-60
operate in a highly unsettled neighbour- remain vulnerable to the Fed’s mishan- care in what they say and have respon- The Stoxx Europe 600 real estate
hood, can also be stabilised. Indeed, it dled interest rate raising cycle. And all sive communication with investors — a sector lost 2.9 per cent after Swedish Nov 2022 2023 May
must if we are to avoid a third phase this is likely to damp the banking sys- lesson already internalised by a few landlord SBB said it would halt dividend Source: Bloomberg
entailing considerably more financial tem’s enthusiasm to extend credit even institutions. Second, the Fed must payments and scrap a planned rights
and economic damage. if moral hazard is greater. strengthen its supervision regime. issue on Monday to preserve capital.
Let’s start with the good news. We are Fortunately, these banks do not have Third, public-private resolutions for The real estate sector shakeout was led week to a range of 5 per cent to 5.25 per US government bond prices fell, with
unlikely to see the sort of dramatic insti- banks need to be made to work to a by “the view that weakness in Sweden’s cent, marking the 10th increase in 14 the yield on interest rate-sensitive two-
tutional collapse experienced by Silicon tighter timeline if needed. Fourth, the property sector is foreshadowing what is months. year Treasuries up 3 basis points to 4.04
Valley Bank, during which $42bn of We are unlikely to see the public sector needs to assure markets set to come in mainland Europe”, said US regional bank stocks continued per cent following a sell-off on Friday.
deposits flew out in one day and another sort of big institutional that, rather than the ad hoc approaches Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at their decline in the wake of First The US Dollar index rose 0.3 per cent
$100bn was projected to follow out the so far, it will work to revamp both the Monex Europe. Republic’s collapse at the start of this against a basket of six other currencies.
door the next day had regulators not collapse experienced by deposit insurance system and the regu- In the US, traders awaited the data month and lingering worries over the London’s FTSE 100 fell 0.2 per cent as
shut down the bank. Silicon Valley Bank lation of banks erroneously deemed to release today, expected to show headline health of the industry. traders awaited the Bank of England’s
This good news is due to two main fac- involve no systemic threat. consumer price inflation at an annual rate “Uncertainty in the banking sector next policy meeting tomorrow when the
tors. First, through practice rather than Doing so is necessary if the US is to of 5 per cent in April, unchanged from the continues to tighten credit conditions and central bank is expected to raise interest
through legal change, the authorities as many immediate structural weak- avoid a third, and significantly more previous month, according to economists lending standards [which] could rates by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5 per
have signalled that the $250,000 ceiling nesses as those that failed. Consider, for damaging, phase of the banking tur- surveyed by Bloomberg. potentially push inflation much closer to cent, their highest level since 2008.
on the state guarantee of individual example, PacWest, which found itself moil. Should less problematic banks fail This is likely to influence the US target by December as unemployment Brent crude, the international oil
deposits has been replaced by unlimited on the ropes last week as its share price in the next few weeks, the impact on the Federal Reserve’s path for monetary rises,” said Jamie Dutta, market analyst at benchmark, fell 1.4 per cent to $75.88 a
coverage. The trick is simple. The Fed- plummeted. Its 25 per cent of uninsured financial system and the economy policy after it raised interest rates last Vantage. barrel. Daria Mosolova and Kate Duguid
eral Reserve just declares a systemic deposits pales in comparison with what would be a lot more consequential.
risk exception. Second, the Fed opened SVB and First Republic had. Also, its cli- Notwithstanding an impressively
a funding window that allows banks for ents base is far more diversified. It will, resilient labour market, the US would Markets update
one year to exchange at par securities however, have to resolve balance sheet soon find itself tipped into an otherwise
that are worth significantly less in the issues and navigate higher funding costs avoidable recession with limited fiscal
marketplace. This reduces the risk of at a time of very jittery markets. and monetary policy options. The likeli-
banks having to sell at a loss to meet The market mood is not surprising. So hood of further policy mistakes would US Eurozone Japan UK China Brazil
deposit outflows and provides them far this year, banks with more than be material. And all this just as the slow- Stocks S&P 500 Eurofirst 300 Nikkei 225 FTSE100 Shanghai Comp Bovespa
with subsidised funding. $530bn in assets have failed, already er-moving stress in the non-bank finan- Level 4120.22 1840.13 29242.82 7764.09 3357.67 107663.53
This important stabilisation has been exceeding the 2008 total during the glo- cial sector becomes more evident. % change on day -0.43 -0.37 1.01 -0.18 -1.10 1.53
far from perfect as it only addressed bal financial crisis after adjusting for Currency $ index (DXY) $ per € Yen per $ $ per £ Rmb per $ Real per $
part of the banking system stress while inflation. The manner in which First Mohamed El-Erian is president of Queens’ Level 101.680 1.096 135.055 1.262 6.927 5.006
inflicting collateral damage and unin- Republic failed is also playing a role. The College, Cambridge, and an adviser to Alli- % change on day 0.299 -0.454 0.130 -0.079 0.155 0.969
tended consequences. Quite a few US theoretical alignment of incentives anz and Gramercy Govt. bonds 10-year Treasury 10-year Bund 10-year JGB 10-year Gilt 10-year bond 10-year bond
regional banks still operate with mis- among the main actors proved insuffi- Sheila Bair see Opinion Yield 3.513 2.348 0.420 3.972 2.775 11.895
Basis point change on day 1.810 2.300 1.210 6.900 -0.600 3.300
World index, Commods FTSE All-World Oil - Brent Oil - WTI Gold Silver Metals (LMEX)
Level 430.04 75.47 71.79 2000.95 25.84 3894.20
% change on day -0.41 -2.00 -1.87 -2.14 0.84 1.37
Yesterday's close apart from: Currencies = 16:00 GMT; S&P, Bovespa, All World, Oil = 17:00 GMT; Gold, Silver = London pm fix. Bond data supplied by Tullett Prebon.

Main equity markets

S&P 500 index Eurofirst 300 index FTSE 100 index
4320 1920 8000

4160 1840 7680

4000 1760 7360

| | | | | | | | |
3840 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | || | 1680 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | || | 7040 | | | | | | | | | | |

Mar 2023 May Mar 2023 May Mar 2023 May

Biggest movers
% US Eurozone UK
Davita 13.41 Grifols 9.36 Int Consolidated Airlines S.a. 3.52
Mckesson 6.52 Fresenius 8.53 Flutter Entertainment 2.26
Ups

Albemarle 4.57 Reed Elsevier 2.88 Relx 1.85

Transdigm 3.48 Talanx 1.62 Beazley 1.55
Hologic 3.24 Amadeus It 1.40 Intercontinental Hotels 1.48
%
Paypal Holdings -11.42 Kbc -4.57 Unite -4.52
Int Flavors & Fragrances -8.28 Casino Guichard -3.83 Ocado -4.14
Downs

Dish Network -7.08 Danone -2.99 Land Securities -3.18

Waters -6.98 Kering -2.60 Dcc -3.10
Baxter Int -6.79 Oci -2.51 British Land -2.86
Prices taken at 17:00 GMT Based on the constituents of the FTSE Eurofirst 300 Eurozone
All data provided by Morningstar unless otherwise noted.

Wall Street Europe London

Heading the S&P 500 index was Swedish real estate group SBB fell Hybrid estate agent Purplebricks
healthcare group DaVita, which lifted its sharply for the second consecutive plummeted after admitting that it was
full-year guidance, forecasting annual session after stating that it would delay “unlikely” it would generate cash for its
earnings of between $6.20 and $7.30 per its dividend payment and not carry out a current fiscal year.
share against a previous estimate of $5.45 previously announced SKr2.63bn The company’s cash position had been
to $6.95 per share. ($260mn) rights issue. hit by fourth-quarter instructions not
The provider of kidney care services A day earlier, S&P Global Ratings rising “as previously anticipated” and the
said it was boosted by an “improving downgraded the landlord’s credit rating. group’s payment processor exercising its
macro environment” with earnings of $1.25 The news rippled across Sweden’s real right to withhold a portion of remittances.
per share in the first quarter, more than estate sector, pushing Fastighets, Purplebricks, which put itself up for
9 per cent ahead of Wall Street estimates. Wallenstam, Wihlborgs Fastigheter, sale in February, also warned that the
At the opposite end of the blue-chip Fabege and Sagax lower. “transactions being contemplated, if
benchmark was PayPal, the online Finland’s Outokumpu jumped on the concluded, would be expected to deliver
payments platform, which expected an back of a “strong set of results”, said Citi, returns to shareholders materially below”
operating margin of 100 basis points this which highlighted the steelmaker’s its stock price.
year, down from a 125bp estimate stated adjusted core profits of €204mn in the Near the bottom of the FTSE 250 index
in February. first quarter — 38 per cent ahead of was Marshalls, the landscape products
This reflected a “greater contribution of analyst expectations. provider, which said it expected to deliver
unbranded processing volume”, said UBS, Heikki Malinen, chief executive, said 2023 results “lower than its original
referring to the payment processing for that, despite heavy distributor destocking expectations”.
other companies without the PayPal in the Americas and Europe, stainless The downgrade came as the group
checkout button. steel deliveries increased 12 per cent reported a 14 per cent slide in like-for-like
The news overshadowed an upgrade quarter on quarter. sales this year.
to PayPal’s earning growth target from Better than expected results buoyed Also in the lower half of the mid-cap
18 per cent to 20 per cent for 2023. Spain’s Grifols, prompting the index was insurer Direct Line, which said
Manchester United rallied following a pharmaceutical group to forecast an its 2023 earnings would be under
report that Qatari Sheikh Jassim bin adjusted core profit margin of 22 to 24 pressure because of “further adverse
Hamad al-Thani was the preferred bidder per cent for the year, up from a previous claims development” in its motor division.
for the English football club. estimate of 21 to 23 per cent. Matt Britzman, equity analyst at
The Express newspaper said the An “operational improvement plan”, Hargreaves Lansdown, said that, with
Premier League team’s owner, the Glazer which included staff cuts, was also claims inflation still running at “high
family, was leaning towards the Qatari running ahead of expectations, leading single-digit levels”, the outlook for
offer over the proposal from British Grifols to lift its cost savings target by insurance profitability remained a “little
billionaire Sir Jim Ratcliffe. Ray Douglas €50mn to €450mn. Ray Douglas murky”. Ray Douglas
Wednesday 10 May 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 15

MARKET DATA

WORLD MARKETS AT A GLANCE FT.COM/MARKETSDATA

Change during previous day’s trading (%)
S&P 500 Nasdaq Composite Dow Jones Ind FTSE 100 FTSE Eurofirst 300 Nikkei Hang Seng FTSE All World $ $ per € $ per £ ¥ per $ £ per € Oil Brent $ Sep Gold $

-0.43% -0.64% -0.17% -0.18% -0.37% -2.12% -0.41% -0.454% -0.079% -0.459% -1.08% -2.14%
1.01% 0.130%
Stock Market movements over last 30 days, with the FTSE All-World in the same currency as a comparisson
AMERICAS EUROPE ASIA
Apr 10 - - Index All World Apr 10 - May 09 Index All World Apr 10 - May 09 Index All World Apr 10 - May 09 Index All World Apr 10 - May 09 Index All World Apr 10 - May 09 Index All World

S&P 500 New York S&P/TSX COMP Toronto FTSE 100 London Xetra Dax Frankfurt Nikkei 225 Tokyo Kospi Seoul
15,912.76 29,242.82
4,120.22 7,764.09 2,510.06
4,109.11 20,469.73
7,634.52 15,520.17 27,813.26 2,424.48
20,275.82
Day -0.43% Month 0.38% Year 3.24% Day -0.21% Month 1.72% Year 2.72% Day -0.18% Month 0.15% Year 7.43% Day 0.02% Month 0.21% Year NaN% Day 1.01% Month 6.27% Year 8.29% Day -0.13% Month 0.79% Year -5.08%

Nasdaq Composite New York IPC Mexico City FTSE Eurofirst 300 Europe Ibex 35 Madrid Hang Seng Hong Kong FTSE Straits Times Singapore
54,938.36
12,178.55 1,840.13 20,331.20
12,084.36 9,254.60 9,183.20 3,300.48
53,346.99 19,867.58
1,817.30 3,242.95
Day -0.64% Month 0.74% Year 4.77% Day 0.06% Month 2.92% Year 12.24% Day -0.37% Month 1.26% Year 12.31% Day -0.31% Month -1.39% Year 10.35% Day -2.12% Month -2.37% Year -0.77% Day -0.45% Month -1.82% Year -1.56%

Dow Jones Industrial New York Bovespa São Paulo CAC 40 Paris FTSE MIB Milan Shanghai Composite Shanghai BSE Sensex Mumbai
106,014.33 61,761.33
3,357.67
27,383.53 3,312.56
33,586.52 33,562.02 7,390.12
100,821.73 7,316.30 26,867.39 59,689.31
Day -0.17% Month 0.24% Year 4.09% Day 1.53% Month 6.79% Year 4.27% Day -0.59% Month 0.99% Year 18.20% Day -0.16% Month 0.62% Year 16.65% Day -1.10% Month 0.90% Year 11.86% Day 0.00% Month 3.21% Year 12.62%

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20 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Wednesday 10 May 2023

ARTS

Quest to spread
a poet’s words
The Onassis Foundation is celebrating CP Cavafy with events in
Greece and beyond. Peter Aspden reports from one in New York

I
am talking to Laurie Anderson, on the US Capitol], but didn’t want to do
sprite-turned-grande dame of New it overtly.” Hence the embellishment at
York’s contemporary arts scene, the end. “I didn’t know until the last sec-
about her previous night’s perform- ond that I was going to do it. We put it crash in 1973 at the age of 25. Onassis
ance in the imposing gothic sur- together very, very quickly.” himself died two years later.
rounds of Saint Thomas Church on Fifth Anderson was joined for the evening “He was a smart man, with a very
Avenue. It nearly didn’t happen, she (“a sprawling, one-night-only explora- strong personality,” says Panagiotakou.
says disarmingly. “I had this headache tion of love, loss, lust and longing”) by “He knew how to combine things that
all day before the show. I didn’t know more New York favourites — singer- other people thought could not be com-
what it was.” A doctor located the source songwriter Rufus Wainwright, com- bined. If you look at the library in his
of the trouble: a tiny piece of an earbud poser Nico Muhly — offering freshly yacht, ‘Christina’, you will see Céline,
which had somehow remained inside commissioned versions of Cavafy’s you will see Winston Churchill’s dedica-
her head. poetry as part of “Archive of Desire”, a tion to him, in his book about the second
Fortunately for a capacity audience, week-long festival celebrating his work, world war. These were the people that
relief was instantaneous, and allowed were around him.
Anderson to give her enthralling rendi-
tion: a setting to music of one of the most
‘Cavafy was living in a freedom,” says Panagiotakou, co-organ-
iser of the festival with the composer
“And then, back in Greece, he would
go to the bouzoukia [clubs] with [Greek
famous poems by the Alexandrian city where times coexist. and curator Paola Prestini. “You have to popular singer] Stamatis Kokotas and
Greek poet CP Cavafy, the brooding do things that other people cannot do — Maria Callas. He was a man of this and
“Waiting for the Barbarians”. The text He knew he was walking not because you have the money, but that.” She flips her hand from side to
describes a community which has sus-
pended its normal business, preening
with pharaohs and kings because you don’t have to apologise if
something is not good, if something
side. “That made him a much more
interesting persona. It wasn’t the
and procrastinating, in anticipation of and slaves’ goes wrong.” money, it was him. And then, you get to
the impending arrival of the “barbari- And with that freedom comes a sense the sunglasses and the hair. There was
ans”, only to find out that they will not on the 160th anniversary of his birth, of responsibility. “If you are an organisa- also that.”
be coming after all. and the 90th of his death. tion with power, you have to speak up. The mingling of New York’s contem-
A heavy choir-and-backbeat combi- It was, by the standards of commemo- For us, culture, education and health are porary artists with the epigrammatic
nation supported Anderson’s matter-of- rations of foreign poets who have been not just about creating great produc- texts of Cavafy’s poetry, sometimes
fact delivery of her lines. And then she dead for nearly a century, a major affair: tions, they are about creating better stern, sometimes sensual, makes for
delivered Cavafy’s bombshell of a final more than 80 artists, working in multi- conditions for democracy, for social jus- striking results. On the wall of the
couplet: “And now, what will become of ple art forms across 10 venues, paying tice, for human rights. And I’m not talk- National Sawdust arts centre in Brook-
us without barbarians? Those people homage to a figure of whom many admit ing about art that is out there and telling lyn, a large mural by artists Nick Cave
were some sort of a solution.” The back- they had scarcely heard. (Like many of you [those things] in your face. I’m talk- and Bob Faust uses a line from “Hidden
beat continued, however, and Anderson her generation, Anderson’s encounter ing about supporting artists, letting Things” as forward-looking agitprop:
added her own line to the poem, with Cavafy was through Leonard them do their own thing, telling them “Later, in a more perfect society, some-
repeated three times: “Unless we our- Cohen’s song “Alexandra Leaving”.) Clockwise, from above: image from bring Cavafy to New York, everyone will they are free to fail.” one else made just like me is certain to
selves are the barbarians . . . ” But that is neither a surprise, nor a ‘Ekphrasis’ at ONX Studio, an be talking about him the next day,” she The funding model was the brainchild appear and act freely.”
It was, she tells me the following disappointment, to the Onassis Founda- AI-created response to Cavafy’s says. “It is more important to raise some of Aristotle Onassis, the renowned ship- “We live in an age where there are
morning, a moment of “last-minute tion, which conceived and sponsored poetry; Laurie Anderson performs sense of curiosity. If 5,000 people come, ping magnate who left instructions at quotations everywhere — in social
improv”. Anderson (for the record: still the festival. Spreading the word on one ‘Waiting for the Barbarians’ in and each one talks to someone else the end of his life for the creation of a media, out in the world,” says Panagi-
sprite-like, and not in the least bit of modern Greece’s cultural giants is an New York; Alexandrian Greek poet about it, that is enough.” charitable foundation in memory of his otakou of the foundations’s eclectic
grand) says she chose the poem for its end in itself, says its cultural director CP Cavafy The foundation has become a major son Alexander, who died in a plane approach to culture. “When you create
political implications. “I wanted it to be Afroditi Panagiotakou. “We are not so Beowulf Sheehan; Zachary Schulman
force in promoting contemporary Greek an open event, with a pop aspect, about
about January 6 [date of the 2021 attack megalomaniac as to think that if we culture in its home country, but increas- poetry, you also create better quotes for
ingly it is active on the international Instagram.” In “Ekphrasis”, at ONX Stu-
stage too. It plans to open a Cavafy dio, come more renditions of “Waiting
Archive space in Athens later this year, for the Barbarians”, this time its text fed
and is restoring the poet’s Alexandria into an AI machine which produces
apartment. Its existing contemporary images from the lines. Artists Matthew
culture venue in the heart of Athens, Niederhauser and Marc Da Costa
Onassis Stegi, has established itself as a describe the piece as an “interrogation”
showcase for “restless, daring Greek art- of the visual languages of today’s
ists” since its opening in 2010, and is machine-learning tools.
committed to running a programme It seems a long way from Cavafy’s
that is both idealistic and experimental. Alexandria. “But he was living in a city
That has been enabled by the founda- where times coexist,” explains Panagi-
tion’s unusual funding model: it does otakou. “He knew he was walking with
not have an endowment, but is split pharaohs and kings and slaves. There
between business and public benefit are cities in the world which you don’t
sections, with 40 per cent of the profits measure in terms of square metres. You
made from the business section ear- look at their depth.”
marked for its activities in culture,
health and education. Mural by artists Nick Cave and Bob Highlights of ‘Archive of Desire’ will be
“That gives us an immense amount of Faust uses lines from Cavafy available online this autumn, onassis.org

Bombarded with riffs and shrieks

The band churned out around 50 anthem “Zitti e buoni” had the audience
POP rough cuts for their new album, Rush!, in transports of ecstasy, with a group of
with the help of Scandi pop mogul Max tweens throwing up a friendship-
Måneskin Martin (producer of hits including braceleted sign of the horns as drummer
O2 Arena, London “Baby One More Time” and “Shake It Ethan Torchio thrashed away under the
aaaee Off”). The result is a mostly English- strobes. “Bla Bla Bla” was bla by name
language grab-bag of styles and influ- and bla by nature but the band reached
Aine Kim Kennedy ences, in the “new wine, old bottles” saturnalian heights with “I Wanna Be
spirit of their viral hit “Beggin’”, a cover Your Slave”, a position clearly shared by
Genre-hopping foursome Måneskin are of a 1967 song by The Four Seasons. the smitten masses finishing every line.
more easily defined in terms of what Opening number “Don’t Wanna Despite the zeal of the crowd, and the
they are not. They’re not just Eurovision Sleep” set the tone, a sullen earworm band’s ebullience, the jumbled nature of
winners, not just the newly anointed that recalled a rowdy, hungover Billie the songs bled into David’s onstage pat-
“saviours of rock and roll”; not, even Eilish, with Aerosmith-adjacent lyrics ter: cries of “Drop your beautiful ass,
after an infamous green room moment and stuttering, sexed-up declamation London” or the tried-and-tested “Let’s
caught on camera, fiends for the reminiscent of Fergie’s “Fergalicious”. go” were delivered with only vague
naughty salt. Even this more generic material was enthusiasm. With some time to focus
Between such claims and the manic invigorated by Måneskin’s multi- their blazing talents and energy on a
pace of their career — from Italian X Fac- pronged jolt of personality, from bassist more coherent message — as glimpsed
tor to Saturday Night Live and opening Victoria De Angelis swaying across the in lovelorn ballads “Timezone” and
for The Rolling Stones, all in less than stage like a druidical rocking-stone, to “The Loneliest” — these puckish prodi-
five years — it’s hard to identify what guitarist Thomas Raggi unleashing gies will probably add more depth to
they actually are, beneath the TikTok- howling solos with stony-faced aplomb. their thrills and spills.
friendly hooks, leather chaps and hard- Ahead of next weekend’s Eurovision,
drilled musical talent. One clue their 2021-winning youth protest merch.maneskin.com
emerged about halfway through their
sold-out show at London’s O2 Arena. Transports of
“Any Italians here?” asked frontman ecstasy:
Damiano David to ear-splitting shrieks Måneskin’s
of assent. “This was a trick question. If singer Damiano
you don’t sing, you’re the worst piece-of- David and
shit Italians I’ve ever seen in my life. OK, bassist Victoria
now we can start.” De Angelis at the
Dripping with concupiscent camp, the O2 Arena
baby-faced Roman superstars chivvied Fabio Germinario

the crowd through a walloping set that

touched the highs and lows of arena
rock. In moments when the barrage of
snappy riffs started to recall a pro-
tracted Subaru ad, the band’s trade-
mark blend of impish bombast and win-
some sincerity kept the show on the
road. But as David took a pause from
prowling the stage like a tatted-up house
cat, reappearing in the pit for a husky
acoustic version of “Vent’anni”, it was
clear that Måneskin thrive when they
embrace their Italian roots.
Wednesday 10 May 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 21

FT BIG READ. TURKISH POLITICS

After 21 years in power, the president is in a tight contest with a united opposition determined to change
the course of the nation. A stark choice looms for voters over how they want their democracy to evolve.
By Andrew England and Adam Samson

T
here was a moment when

Erdoğan faces his greatest

Turkey’s election debate
came down to an onion and
a warship.
It began when Kemal
Kılıçdaroğlu, the man leading the

challenge yet
charge to break President Recep Tayyip
Erdoğan’s grip over Turkish politics, sat
at his kitchen table last month, his shirt
collar open, and held up an onion.
The point the opposition leader
wanted to hammer home to voters was
that runaway inflation under Erdoğan’s
watch has hurt every household. The
price of a kilo of onions, vital for Turkish
cuisine, has increased about fivefold in
the capital city of Ankara over the past
18 months.
“The real agenda of the citizens is this.
They know that when I come into
power, democracy will come, money
will flow, investments will flow, the cur-
rency will appreciate, prosperity will
come,” said Kılıçdaroğlu, almost smiling
at his campaign prop. “But if he
[Erdoğan] stays, this onion in my hands
will be 100 lira. It’s even 30 lira now.”
A day later, Erdoğan projected an
altogether different image as he stood
statesmanlike at a naval base for the
inauguration of a new warship, an event
he used to boast of Turkey’s strength
and influence under his stewardship.
The vessel, he said, was a symbol “that
will strengthen our position as a leader
in the ‘Turkish century’ and a nation
that has a voice in the world”.
The contrasting images epitomise the
stark choice voters face at elections on
May 14: a charismatic strongman who
has towered over the country’s politics
for two decades, or a softly spoken,
retired bureaucrat who is betting that
years of creeping authoritarianism and
soaring living costs will finally convince
voters of the need for change.
The stakes have rarely been higher as
the republic marks its centenary.
Erdoğan is battling for his political sur-
vival as he faces his biggest challenge at
the ballot box since coming to power in
2003, with Kılıçdaroğlu leading a six-
party alliance united in the fight to top-
ple the president. victories for parliament, the presidency unabashedly uses the state’s machinery But Kılıçdaroğlu, who has led CHP, purge of the security services and the
An opposition victory, particularly by and referendums. to back his cause, and much of the media the secularist party of Mustafa Kemal civil service, while imposing a state of
a narrow margin, would test Erdoğan’s Critics also acknowledge that in a has fallen under government control. Atatürk, Turkey’s founding father, since emergency that remained in place when
commitment to democracy, as well as nation deeply polarised between those His campaign has been characterised 2010 without previously directly taking elections were held two years later.
the allegiances of a judiciary, police and for or against Erdoğan, he is still argua- by a combination of pre-election givea- on Erdoğan, still has some convincing to Sunday’s vote will take place with
military that he has spent two decades bly Turkey’s most popular politician, ways — from free gas for a month to a do. Esen says there were “better Selahattin Demirtaş, HDP’s former
striving to bring under his control. If with a strong support base among reli- pay rise for 700,000 public sector work- options” as the presidential candidate. leader, spending his seventh year in jail
Erdoğan, who displays an increasing gious conservatives who see their pros- ers, announced yesterday — plus the He describes Kılıçdaroğlu as a polite, on charges of supporting terrorism and
intolerance for dissent, secures another pects tied to the president’s. inauguration of state projects. quiet person — “a good civil servant who with İmamoğlu facing a possible ban
term, his critics fear he will steer Turkey “After 20 years, of course we still have In speeches, Erdoğan has sought to knows how to work the room silently” from politics after a court convicted him
deeper into authoritarianism. some doubts,” says a member of project his experience and the strength and can be underestimated. in December of “insulting” electoral
“At the heart of it, it’s a choice about Kılıçdaroğlu’s campaign team. of the state, while accusing Kılıçdaroğlu Bilge Yilmaz, a senior member of the officials.
how Turkish democracy will evolve,” of preparing to “beg” from western İyi party and a Wharton business school Despite this, analysts and opposition
says Can Selçuki, general manager of On a knife edge donors and “loan sharks” and surren- professor touted as a possible economy officials say that while they do not
Istanbul Economics Research. “If he It is not the first time pollsters and oppo- dering to the IMF. tsar if the opposition wins, is circum- expect a fair election, they hope the vot-
wins, it’s the continuation of this imbal- sition figures have predicted that But Erdoğan’s supporters know he is spect when discussing Kılıçdaroğlu, say- ing process will be relatively free, believ-
anced system whereby democracy is Erdoğan’s hold on power may be slip- in a fight. A person with insights into the ing “it is what it is right now”. ing that only a small percentage of votes
reduced to elections every five years, Voters will choose between Kemal ping. In June 2015, the president’s Islam- campaign says: “There’s no panic, but His concern is the “tricks” Erdoğan could be manipulated.
with no balances.” Kılıçdaroğlu, top left, and President ist-rooted Justice and Development they aren’t comfortable.” might deploy. “It’s going to be hard,” But Yilmaz worries about how
The outcome could also determine Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on May 14. party (AKP) lost its parliamentary Ferhat Pirinççi, an analyst at Seta, a Yilmaz says. “These ‘autocratic’ leaders Erdoğan might react if the parliament is
the direction the $900bn economy Above: supporters of Kılıçdaroğlu at majority for the first time in 13 years. think-tank with close links to Erdoğan gridlocked and the president is forced
takes. The nation urgently needs to
attract foreign investment to manage a
a rally in Istanbul this month.
Below: a local official walks down the
Erdoğan doubled down and called a
snap election for November that year.
and his government, says the presi-
dent’s campaign is “confident”. But
‘Both the opposition and into a run-off that would be held two
weeks after Sunday’s vote. “There will
current account deficit that is near its debris-strewn streets of Antakya, The AKP then defied polls predicting a “they think they need to work hard; the ruling party are be some rigging for sure, but there are
widest level since records began and which suffered some of the worst hung parliament to restore its majority. they know it’s on an edge”. more things that I’m worried about,”
replenish diminishing foreign reserves. damage from the devastating Three years later, the opposition con- He believes that despite criticism over confident of victory, and Yilmaz says. “He may feel at some point
It is a crisis that has dented Erdoğan’s
popularity as he has pursued an unor-
earthquakes in February fidently bet that double-digit inflation
and a fall in the lira would help bring
the government’s response to the quake,
the massive reconstruction needs work
that’s not a good sign in that a sense of instability might make
him a more forceful candidate . . . he
an authoritarian state’
FT montage/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock/AFP/Getty Images; Umit
Bektas/Reuters
thodox monetary policy, opposing Erdoğan down. Instead, he won with 53 in Erdoğan’s favour. “Before the earth- might [create] some tensions.”
interest rate rises even as inflation has per cent of the vote, securing him the quake, support was dropping for the As campaigning intensified last
soared and dismissing three central executive presidency. government because of the economic cannot lose, cannot afford to lose . . . so month, interior minister Süleyman
bank governors in less than four years. Today the economic malaise is far crisis. After the earthquake . . . every- he will try hard, undoubtedly.” Soylu portrayed the election as a west-
Yet his supporters insist he is the only deeper. The lira, which had fallen to body started to ask ‘who can [help us] Erdogan’s supporters insist he will ern “political coup attempt”.
man capable of fixing the mess. about TL4.5 to the dollar when voters recover?’” he says. “When you check win fair and square as the most popular Still, Yilmaz and others appear confi-
In the opposing corner, Kılıçdaroğlu is went to the polls in 2018, is today trad- surveys, even people who don’t vote for candidate. But concerns about election dent that Erdoğan would accept defeat,
pledging to clean house at the state’s ing above TL19. In October, inflation Erdoğan, say Erdoğan. It’s about trust.” irregularities and the independence of particularly if Kılıçdaroğlu secures a
financial institutions and lure back peaked at a 24-year high as consumer Pirinççi also suspects the opposition the High Election Council, the main clear victory. “I don’t think he’s going to
wary foreign investors. price growth exceeded 80 per cent. inadvertently gifted Erdoğan an advan- electoral body, have risen in tandem get into a path that is destructive for
He wants to repair the Nato member’s The situation has been exacerbated tage by selecting Kılıçdaroğlu as its can- with Erdoğan’s authoritarianism. himself and the country,” says Yilmaz.
often testy relations with Europe — a by the earthquake that devastated didate. “He was one of the best candi- Analysts typically divide Erdoğan’s “Despite everything, Turkey has
potentially significant shift for the west southern Turkey in February, killing dates for Erdoğan because he’s familiar years in power into two halves. During enough democratic history and institu-
while it is preoccupied with Russia’s war more than 50,000 people and displacing with him,” he says. “[Erdoğan] is the his first decade, he oversaw widespread tions to prevent a power grab,” says
in Ukraine — and would be a far less another 3mn, with many criticising the master of politics.” development, implemented myriad Selçuki at Istanbul Economics
pugnacious figure on the international government’s initial response. And infrastructure projects, improved the Research. “Second, I think the security
stage. He would not have the kind of Erdoğan, 69, lacks the energy he once ‘A good civil servant’ lot of pious conservatives previously institutions will side with the victor.
close, yet complex, relationship had — his campaign was briefly inter- It is not just those rooting for Erdoğan marginalised by secular politicians and Ruin the judiciary, ruin the institutions,
Erdoğan has forged with Russian presi- rupted by a stomach bug that caused who question Kılıçdaroğlu’s electability. attracted foreign investment. but when it comes to the ballot box,
dent Vladimir Putin, but would main- him to fall ill live on TV. For months after the opposition The tide began to turn, however, after don’t mess with that — the Turkish pub-
tain economic relations with Russia, one “No incumbent has entered a cam- “table of six” announced their pact to the months-long Gezi park protests in lic reacts every time.”
of Turkey’s most important trading paign with so many structural limita- unite behind a single candidate last 2013 over a planned urban develop- The outcome on Sunday is likely to be
partners. tions and deficiencies,” says Berk Esen, year, speculation swirled about whether ment in Istanbul. Erdoğan responded determined by “restless conservatives”
Kılıçdaroğlu has also promised to do an assistant professor of political sci- it would select the slight 74-year-old, or with a violent crackdown. The slide who traditionally vote for Erdoğan but
away with Erdoğan’s prized powerful ence at Istanbul’s Sabanci University one of the CHP’s younger, more charis- towards authoritarianism gathered no longer believe he is delivering; an
executive presidency, adopted after a and a CHP member. matic leaders, notably Ekrem pace after a 2016 coup attempt, estimated 5.3mn new young voters; and
contentious 2017 constitutional refer- He is, however, only “cautiously opti- İmamoğlu or Mansur Yavaş, the mayors following which he launched a sweeping Kurds, who make up about 18 per cent
endum, and return to a parliamentary mistic” the opposition will prevail. Like of Istanbul and Ankara respectively. of the 85mn population, analysts say.
democracy. other analysts, Esen predicts the presi- The CHP-led alliance includes the A decade of decline But even if Erdoğan loses, few will
“We handed over the Republic of Tur- dential contest will go to a second nationalist İyi party led by Meral rush to write his political obituary, par-
key to one person [Erdoğan]. Such a round, with no candidate garnering Akşener and two smaller parties headed in the Turkish lira ticularly as there will be questions about
mentality cannot exist,” Kılıçdaroğlu more than 50 per cent of the ballots. by erstwhile Erdoğan allies. Turkey’s Turkish lira per $ how the opposition holds together if
tells the Financial Times. “We will win Analysts also forecast a hung parlia- third-largest political group, the Kurd- 0 confronted with the huge challenges
and fix Turkey.” ment, with the possibility of the AKP ish-dominated Peoples’ Democratic facing Turkey. Opposition officials
Most polls suggest Kılıçdaroğlu, bloc securing most seats — underscoring party (HDP) has not joined the coali- defend the coalition, arguing that it was
leader of the Republican People’s party the knife-edged nature of the contest. tion, but, crucially, is backing 5 more than a year in the making, adding
(CHP), enjoys a slim lead over the “My sense is that both the opposition Kılıçdaroğlu’s bid. that the parties have agreed to some
incumbent, with his chances buoyed by and the ruling party are confident of vic- Tensions over the leadership issue 10 2,300 policy points.
the fact the traditionally fractious oppo-
sition is at its most unified in its years-
‘Despite everything, tory, and that’s not a good sign in an
authoritarian state, because yes author-
burst into the open in March when
Akşener pulled the İyi party out of the
Whatever the outcome, with a shaky
economic outlook and a politically
long quest to unseat the president. Turkey has enough itarian regimes do miscalculate, but coalition, saying she could not back 15 divided population, Turkey faces a
But opposition optimism is tempered they also tend to have a lot of resources Kılıçdaroğlu days before he was named tough road ahead. “This is going to be
by the scale of the task ahead. Erdoğan democratic history at their disposal,” Esen says. as the candidate. The İyi party returned 20 the hardest situation for the republic in
is a shrewd and ruthless operator who
has consistently outmanoeuvred oppo-
and institutions to Analysts and opposition figures have
long complained that voting takes place
to the fold after İmamoğlu and Yavaş
were named as vice-presidents (the 2013 15 17 19 21 23
its history, I call this the century of disas-
ter,” Yilmaz says. “And rightfully so.”
nents to mastermind multiple election prevent a power grab’ on an unlevel playing field. Erdoğan coalition has seven vice-presidents). Source: Refinitiv
Additional reporting by Funja Güler
22 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Wednesday 10 May 2023

The FT View
China’s raids on foreign firms hurt its own interests
sea change in Beijing’s attitudes to US meters for how these terms are defined. What makes the nology ladder and expand overseas, it
Western multinationals business. Yet what makes the environ- This means, in effect, that anything the environment no longer needs the investment of west-
ment particularly poisonous is the Chinese Communist party deems sus- ern multinationals it once courted so
have been leading advocates nature of the allegations being levelled pect can be defined as potential espio-
particularly
assiduously. Certainly, the ability of Chi-
for engagement with Beijing by Chinese authorities. Chinese media nage, triggering the search and seizure poisonous is the nese car companies to win market share
reported that consulting groups had powers of authorities as well as the nature of the from western rivals such as Volkswagen
Recent raids by Chinese security forces tapped personnel in “our party and gov- incarceration of individuals. allegations being seems to reinforce such a view.
on US consultancies in China strike right ernment organs and other clandestine Beijing has also displayed a willing- levelled by Yet much more is at stake. More than
at the heart of the west’s ties with the units” to provide sensitive information ness to act. The detention in 2018 of Chinese one-third of the $3.3tn in goods that
world’s second-largest economy. Such to clients abroad. Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig — China exported in 2021 were supplied
consultancies provide essential market CCTV, the Chinese state broadcaster, Canadian executives imprisoned for authorities by foreign companies operating in the
research and due diligence work to said in a report focused primarily on more than 1,000 days and charged with mainland. Multinationals have also
western multinationals that have Capvision that the group had set up spying — sent fear through western been a prime source of technology
invested hundreds of billions of US dol- interviews with experts in areas such as business communities in China. transferred to local partners over the
lars in China over the past decade. It is government policy, national defence The US Chamber of Commerce past four decades, as well as manage-
these multinationals, in turn, that form and technology. It claimed a few of these warned last month that mounting ment expertise and advice on how to
the leading constituency in western had revealed sensitive and secret infor- scrutiny of American companies had break into US and European markets.
nations for continued engagement with mation during the consultations. “dramatically” raised the risk premia It would be in its own self-interest,
China in the face of intensifying domes- Such allegations come against a back- attached to doing business in China. The then, for Beijing to act to assuage foreign
tic political opposition. Thus, it is little drop of Beijing’s increased vigilance powerful US business lobby group, led investors’ concerns. It ought to define
exaggeration to say the future of eco- against espionage. Anti-espionage laws by chief executive Suzanne Clark, said more clearly what constitutes espionage
nomic globalisation is at risk. were broadened last month from cover- in a statement it was “closely monitor- and what is seen as legitimate industry
The multiple raids in recent weeks on ing state secrets and intelligence to any ing” China’s scrutiny of US professional intelligence. If not, the result could be a
US companies Capvision, Bain & Com- “documents, data, materials or items services and due diligence firms. fundamental breach between China and
pany and Mintz — all of which have con- related to national security and inter- It may be that Beijing feels that as its the multinationals that have long been
ft.com/opinion siderable operations in China — signal a ests”, without setting specific para- homegrown companies climb the tech- its biggest supporters in the west.

Opinion Science
Letters
Email: letters.editor@ft.com
Include daytime telephone number and full address
Corrections: corrections@ft.com

Tech luminaries’ beliefs

If you are not satisfied with the FT’s response to your complaint, you can appeal
to the FT Editorial Complaints Commissioner: complaints.commissioner@ft.com

need further examination Banknotes have characteristics a digital euro can never acquire
Andy Carter Eswar Prasad argues that the advent of the US dollar is 6.5 per cent, and the do to make it attractive. But that’s a not appreciate the difference between a
central bank digital currencies are British pound 5.2 per cent. Euro coins strange way of proposing public CBDC and a bank deposit (insured in
inevitable (“Central banks bow to the show, in proportion, a similar profile. intervention to correct a market failure the EU up to €100,000).
inevitability of digital currencies”, Criminals and tax evaders are unlikely that does not exist. Besides, this would CBDCs could be needed in extreme
Opinion, May 4). The reason given is to make extensive use of coins. be a lost battle. Central banks cannot scenarios. But such remote
cash is less used in daily transactions. CBDCs would primarily replace bank be as innovative as market providers. contingencies are an argument for
But cash is not disappearing; actually deposits, not paper currency. Combining this with a central bank’s being prepared, not for launching the
it is booming almost everywhere. In the Banknotes have unique characteristics role in payment oversight would also instrument without due consideration.
21 years of the single currency’s that the digital euro will never have. create conflicts of interest. Ignazio Angeloni,
existence, euro banknotes in The CBDCs launched by China and European legislators may be tempted European University Institute, Florence
circulation have increased sevenfold the Bahamas have been flops. Prasad to make acceptance and distribution of SAFE, Goethe University Frankfurt,
and currently stand at close to €1.6tn, recognised this but reverses the CBDCs mandatory. But not even such a Germany
growing at a compound rate of around argument: if there is no demand, he dirigiste approach would guarantee Daniel Gros
10 per cent. The comparable figure for says, let’s see what central banks can success. Surveys show that people do Bocconi University, Milan, Italy

Cryptocurrency critique What remuneration Britain’s privatisation

20th century”. An all-purpose, can do with more context committees should say debate comes full circle
Anjana undefined AGI, the authors add, can-
not be properly safety-tested and
Jemima Kelly plausibly argues that
cryptocurrencies are primarily used for
Your front-page story (Report, May 4)
reports the claim of Julia Hoggett, head
The letter from Macquarie’s Leigh
Harrison that states that asset
Ahuja therefore should not be built.
Gebru and Torres go on to explore
speculation and illicit activity, albeit
with the former orders of magnitude
of the London Stock Exchange, that
“executives should be paid more if the
managers are “the long-term stewards”
of our transport hubs and energy
the intellectual motives of the pro-AGI greater than the latter (Opinion, UK wants to retain talent and deter networks (April 24) 24) naturally
crowd. “At the heart of this [Tescreal] April 27). companies from moving overseas”. reflects the arguments of one of the

P
bundle,” Torres elaborates in an email Yet in claiming that crime is a crypto Even in addressing the issue of world’s biggest infrastructure
eople who are very rich or to me, “is a techno-utopian vision of “industry feature”, Kelly should really technology companies such as Arm investors. However, I recall discussions
very clever, or both, some- the future in which we become radi- present the evidence in the context of Holdings preferring to list in the US in the early 1980s, while working as an
times believe weird things. cally ‘enhanced’, immortal ‘posthu- total illicit financial activity. More rather than the UK, Lex astutely outside adviser in some of the biggest
Some of these beliefs are mans’, colonise the universe, re-engi- concerning is her decision to pin the observes on your back page (“UK government departments, when the
captured in the acronym neer entire galaxies [and] create vir- blame for such illicit activity on the listing rules: City lites”, Lex, May 4) concept of privatisation was first
Tescreal. The letters represent over- tual-reality worlds in which trillions of fact that cryptocurrencies are what she that this “looks a red herring”. As Lex fashionable. The Treasury, short of
lapping futuristic philosophies — ‘digital people’ exist”. calls “censorship resistant payment explains, the “huge tech ecosystem” money then too, was facing the
bookended by transhumanism and Tech luminaries certainly overlap in mechanism[s]”. and “more liquid equity market”, prospect of having to replace the vast
longtermism — favoured by many of their interests. Elon Musk, who wants On the first point, Kelly cites an leading to higher valuations, are the infrastructure of Victorian water
AI’s wealthiest and most prominent to colonise Mars, has expressed sym- estimate of approximately $40bn per basis for this relative US advantage. pipelines and sewers. Privatisation
supporters. pathy for longtermist thinking and year of illicit crypto transactions and This will not be addressed by tweaking seemed the obvious solution. Let the
The label, coined by a former Google owns Neuralink, essentially a transhu- money laundering. Yet there is the listing rules, nor pushing executive private sector find the money to
ethicist and a philosopher, is begin- manist company. Peter Thiel, the Pay- approximately $110bn per year of illicit pay levels up beyond the current FTSE update these 150-year-old systems.
ning to circulate online and usefully Pal co-founder, has backed anti-age- finance through the regulated banking US (“How Europe failed to challenge 100 chief executive average Forty years on, all we hear is
explains why some tech figures would ing technologies and has bankrolled a sector. As for money laundering, a 2011 the US”, April 26) fails to acknowledge remuneration of over £4mn. But I criticisms of the owners of these
like to see the public gaze trained on rival to Neuralink. Both Musk and report from the UN Office on Drugs the prohibitive costs of pursuing a would suggest that UK company networks paying out dividends instead
fuzzy future problems such as existen- Thiel invested in OpenAI, the creator and Crime put the scale of the problem secondary listing in the US. The shareholders and remuneration of replacing leaking pipes and looking
tial risk, rather than on current liabili- of ChatGPT. Like Thiel, Ray Kurzweil, at $2.4tn per annum. What Kelly also extensive regulatory, legal and committees tell their chief executives to public support to update London’s
ties such as algorithmic bias. A frater- the messiah of singularitarianism now overlooks is that it has been typical for compliance risks and requirements the to invest in the skills and pay of their sewers. Where does that leave
nity ultimately committed to nurtur- employed by Google, wants to be cryo- new financial technologies — which process entails, and the time it takes, employees before they consider paying Harrison’s arguments?
ing AI for a posthuman future may genically frozen and revived in a scien- ultimately prove highly beneficial — to are significant barriers for most themselves even more. Performance is Unfortunately, for anyone looking
care little for the social injustices com- tifically advanced future. experience corrupt practices. One need companies of all sizes. The average cost driven by the whole workforce, not just for a simple answer, on the same letters
mitted by their errant infant today. Another influential figure is philos- only look at the history of the US stock of $1.5mn to $3mn a year for a the chief executive. page is a plea from Graham Mather, a
opher Nick Bostrom, a longtermist market. secondary listing — and exposure to Duncan Brown former board member of the UK’s
thinker. He directs Oxford university’s As to the second point, I find it potential US litigation and regulatory Visiting Professor, University of Greenwich Office of Rail & Road, for the
A group set on nurturing Future of Humanity Institute, whose
funders include Musk. (Bostrom
extraordinary that Kelly views a
technology that enables privacy to be
oversight — regularly outweighs the
upside of increased liquidity and
London TW1, UK government to invest in an up-to-date
railway system instead of patching the
a posthuman future may recently apologised for a historical prima facie suspect. One of the crucial capital such a listing affords. Eliciting questions in class old Victorian one.
care little for injustices racist email.) The institute works
closely with the Centre for Effective
differences between free and
totalitarian societies is that individual
The trend of European companies
looking to North America will not stop. from unexpected quarters Nigel Kendall
Worplesdon, Surrey, UK
committed today Altruism, an Oxford-based charity. autonomy is protected in the former Some now feel they have only one As a teacher, I am always happy to try
Some effective altruists have identi- and disregarded in the latter. option: to leave their domestic stock out new ways of engaging with my In touchscreen age, physios
As well as transhumanism, which fied careers in AI safety as a smart To be sure, there is a need for market entirely. When European students. So I read with interest in
advocates for the technological and gambit. There is, after all, no more consideration and debate over the companies opt for New York over their Sarah O’Connor’s article (“We should and eye experts are king
biological enhancement of humans, effective way of doing good than sav- competing claims regarding the home market, however, domestic stock all be asking more questions”, Opinion, Another consequence of what Pilita
Tescreal encompasses extropianism, a ing our species from a robopocalypse. individual’s right to privacy and the exchanges suffer disproportionately. February 7) about an unnamed Clark calls the “touchscreen takeover”
belief that science and technology will Gebru, along with others, has state’s duty to enforce the law in But there is another way. academic who would throw a soft ball (“Push-buttons are coming back,
bring about indefinite lifespan; singu- described such talk as fear-mongering confronting illicit activity in Five hundred global companies — to his students and whoever caught it hurrah!”, Opinion, May 8) is the extent
laritarianism, the idea that an artifi- and marketing hype. Many will be cryptocurrencies. However, to ignore including Roche, Heineken and Adidas had to ask a question. I have been using to which it has robbed us of hand skills,
cial superintelligence will eventually tempted to dismiss her views — she the moral and historic claims of — from 50 recognised global exchanges a similar technique since 2013, paying motor skills and muscle strength. Our
surpass human intelligence; cosmism, was sacked from Google after raising privacy would be a mistake with all access the much sought after students to ask questions in class, 25 eyes work more than our hands so in
a manifesto for curing death and concerns over energy use and social consequences that may extend far liquidity the US capital markets cents per question. future we’re going to need more eye
spreading outwards into the cosmos; harms linked to large language models beyond the matter of crypto regulation. provide, but without needing to leave I bought quarters by the roll — one specialists and physiotherapists.
rationalism, the conviction that rea- — as sour grapes, or an ideological Daniel Aronoff their domestic markets. semester I paid out over $150. The Aisha Amjad
son should be the supreme guiding rant. But that glosses over the motiva- Research Scientist, MIT By delivering this via cross-trading money wasn’t important. It was a Dubai, UAE
principle for humanity; effective tions of those running the AI show, a Cambridge, MA, US on a market like OTCQX, companies gesture, indicating that questions were
altruism, a social movement that cal- dazzling corporate spectacle with a achieve US access at far lower cost and valued. Here’s my tip sheet to be
culates how to maximally benefit oth- plot line that very few are able to confi- Brexit was bid to escape without needing to deviate from their There were some problems, of
a successful schmoozer
ers; and longtermism, a radical form dently follow, let alone regulate. home market’s regulatory rules. This course. One student told of getting a
of utilitarianism which argues that we Repeated talk of a possible techno- empire — the EU empire path creates added liquidity for the Canadian quarter that I had thrown by Pilita Clark (Business Life, May 1)
have moral responsibilities towards apocalypse not only sets up these tech Linda Colley (“Britain needs more than domestic exchange, builds a more mistake stuck in a laundromat washing suggests the best schmoozers prepare
the people who are yet to exist, even at glitterati as guardians of humanity, it a streamlined coronation”, Opinion, robust secondary market, bridges the machine. Another student who missed in advance for that business drinks
the expense of those who currently do. also implies an inevitability in the May 5) misunderstands the point of valuation gap, and allows companies to the first class, where I explained about party. I wonder if that is so?
The acronym can be traced back to path we are taking. And it distracts Brexit. remain national champions. paying for questions, got hit squarely in Yes, being a good listener is key but
an unpublished paper by Timnit from the real harms racking up today, It is not to rebuild the British empire; Domestic exchanges need national the forehead by an unexpected quarter the success or otherwise of schmoozing
Gebru, the former co-lead for Google identified by academics such as Ruha it is to escape the undemocratic new champions more than ever before, and in the second class. is to show a good old-fashioned interest
on AI ethics, and Émile Torres, a PhD Benjamin and Safiya Noble. Decision- European empire and try to be a so does the underlying investor. It’s And for those courses where I felt it in who’s turned up. You may know a
student in philosophy at Leibniz Uni- making algorithms using biased data self-governing nation again. time issuers avoid the distraction of the necessary to ask questions of the few, but what about the others? Who
versity. An early draft of the paper, yet are deprioritising black patients for Philip Hoskins “European dream” of building students directly, I’d randomly draw are they? What makes them tick?
to be submitted to a journal, contends certain medical procedures, while Bournemouth, Dorset, UK exchanges to rival the US and recognise playing cards on which their names To be a successful schmoozer, I don’t
that the unexamined race towards generative AI is stealing human they can have the best of both worlds, were written. think you’ve got to do any hard-headed
AGI (artificial general intelligence) labour, propagating misinformation European issuers can have but at a fraction of the cost. Equity I freely offer these ideas for others to advance planning, just turn up, be
has produced “systems that harm and putting jobs at risk. investors take note. try! yourself. It’s the taking part, in an
marginalised groups and centralise Perhaps those are the plot twists we the best of both worlds Jason L Paltrowitz Bradley Lucier interested manner, that carries you
power, while using the language of were not meant to notice. Katie Martin and Nikou Asgari’s Big Director & Executive Vice President Professor Emeritus of Mathematics and through, simples!
social justice and ‘benefiting human- Read on the competitiveness of OTC Markets Group, & OTC Markets Computer Science, Purdue University Alastair Conan
ity’, similar to the eugenicists of the The writer is a science commentator Europe’s exchanges versus those in the Group International, New York, NY, US West Lafayette, IN, US London CR5, UK
Wednesday 10 May 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 23

Opinion
How the west’s handling of the pandemic beat its own expectations
Beware the opposite error, though. The lockdown commanded similarly grounds to wonder if they are too docile. pancy is lastingly down. But live sports tries quicker. And ask whether curbing
WORLD AFFAIRS Don’t underrate, or take for granted, the unlikely levels of assent. Here was per- All this discipline was bribed, cynics will events, migrant flows, tourism, the funeral attendance is conscionable. The
west’s handling of a crisis that had no haps the deepest ever peacetime incur- say. It is no hardship or patriotic sacrifice handshake: these things came back with reckoning will have to include the public,
Janan precedent in the previous century or so. sion into the private realm. Had even one to stay indoors when one’s income is a vengeance that merits more reflec- too: perhaps lockdown rule-breaking
Ganesh The WHO’s announcement is as good a
cue as any to make the point.
citizen in four defied it, the policy would
have fallen, unless you believe the state
being underwritten by the state. Perhaps.
But this economic support was itself
tion, if not wonder. Even I, on the bullish
end of the debate, thought it would be
was rife, but hidden, just as opportunistic
crime flourished under the “Blitz spirit”
A Covid vaccine was expected to take can enforce penalties against a quarter another benign revelation of the pan- 2025 before nightlife in a big western of 1940-41.
around 18 months to contrive. Some of its population. The lockdown relied demic. Who expected Washington, the city felt 2019-ish. That mark was For now, I just ask that we remember

N
experts viewed even that projection as on a degree of voluntary obedience, of most rancorous capital in the democratic crossed last spring. how low expectations of public life were
o less a figure than Bill Gates optimistic, as did much of the public. In world, to unanimously pass over $2tn of Note the range of human sentiments in the pre-pandemic years. The theme
expected the Covid-19 pan- fact, it came in half the time. If that was a fiscal relief at such speed? Or Brexit-era here: enough trust to take the vaccine, of the age was a misgoverning elite and
demic to resemble a world
war. Armistice came last
scientific coup, the take-up rate was a
civic miracle. As late as September
Lockdowns relied on a Britain to set up a furlough scheme with
so much technical thought and political
enough deference to stay at home,
enough confidence to go out again. (Not
an ungovernable people, each problem
provoking the other in a Mobius loop of
week, on the fifth day of the 2020, 49 per cent of Americans said submission to authority consensus behind it? to mention enough animal spirits to civic dysfunction. There is a case, albeit
fifth month, when the World Health
Organization declared the official end of
they would definitely or probably not
bare their arms for the jab. This reluc-
that was thought to be The surprises go beyond the pan-
demic itself to the Great Thaw in normal
set up new businesses.) The pandemic
was a comprehensive audit of, well, us.
prima facie, that the west has just lived
through a rebuke to all that: a show of
the emergency. tance was consistent with what we quaint in the populist age life. Global air fares are much higher Whether the west’s handling of the technocratic acumen and public consci-
“Armistice”, I say, not victory, because “knew” about modern voters: their mis- than in 2019, such is the demand. Till pandemic was “good” is something years entiousness. If future inquiries bear that
a global death toll in the tens of millions trust of authorities, their weakness for submission to authority, that was transactions at Pret A Manger, that of official inquiries will try, and doubtless out, it will be hard not to paraphrase
constitutes no kind of win. The 1.1mn in online quackery. In the end, 82 per cent thought to be quaint in the populist age. proxy measure of the urban economy, fail, to establish. These will try to put a the old Jeane Kirkpatrick line. We have
the US alone approximates that nation’s of Americans have received at least one Remember, the restrictions were actively are almost at pre-pandemic levels in number on the lives that would have to face the truth about ourselves, no
combined losses in all wars. The lucky dose. France was apparently even more popular. Before the pandemic, it was nat- London’s financial district, already been saved with a quicker sealing of matter how pleasant it is.
among us (I have never knowingly had cynical about the vaccine, yet also ural to worry that western electorates there in the west end and well above in borders. And work out how vaccines
the virus) mustn’t cheer. ended up with very high coverage. were mutinous. There are now more train stations. It is true that office occu- might have reached less developed coun- janan.ganesh@ft.com

The threat
and the
promise of AI
Martin Wolf Economics
It might be the most transformative
technology of all for human beings’
sense of themselves

I
n 1900, the UK had 3.3mn horses. after. Thus, innovation has increasingly The research interest in Boosts to productivity come well The proportion of jobs vulnerable to
These animals provided pulling been hollowing out middle-income jobs. artificial intelligence has soared after important innovations AI is higher in high-income countries
power, transport and cavalry. Furthermore, innovations generate Count of AI research publications (’000) Growth in US labour productivity Share of employment exposed to automation by AI,
Today, only recreation is left. new kinds of work only when they com- 600 (average over past 10 years, %) selected countries (%)
Horses are an outmoded tech- plement jobs, not when they replace Machine learning 4 Hong Kong
nology. Their numbers in the UK have them. Finally, the demand-eroding Computer vision Japan
fallen by around 75 per cent. Could effects of automation have intensified in Artificial neural network
NLP semantics 3 US
humans, too, become an outmoded the past four decades, while the demand- 400 UK
Fuzzy logic
technology, displaced by machines that increasing effects of augmentation have Search algorithms Eurozone
are not just stronger and more dexter- not. None of this is very cheering, espe- 2 Global Developed
ous but more intelligent, even more cially since overall productivity growth 200 Indonesia economies
creative? The threat, we are told, is has been quite modest since 1980. 1 Productivity booms following China Emerging
remote. Yet this is a matter of belief. So what about the future? On this, an invention of the motor car (c 1890) Nigeria economies
Maybe machines could do much of what analysis by Goldman Sachs is both opti- and personal computer (1981) India Global
0 0
we need to have done better than we mistic and sobering. It argues that the 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
1980 85 90 95 2000 05 10 15 20
could, with the exception of being “combination of significant labour cost
Source: US-EU Trade and Technology Council Sources: BLS, Goldman Sachs Source: Goldman Sachs
human and caring as humans do. savings, new job creation, and a produc-
Yet even if no such revolution threat- tivity boost for non-displaced workers
ens, recent advances in artificial intelli- raises the possibility of a labour produc- maintenance. Socially, the impact will questions of who and what we are. It such harms before we let AI loose. Geof- never stop the rest. In 1433, the Chinese
gence are highly significant. According tivity boom”. This would be similar to fall most heavily on relatively well edu- might be the most transformative tech- frey Hinton, a “godfather” of AI, even empire halted attempts to project naval
to Bill Gates, they are the most impor- what ultimately followed the emer- cated white-collar workers. The danger nology of all for our sense of ourselves. decided to resign from Google. power. That did not stop others from
tant development since personal com- gence of the electric motor and personal then is of downward mobility of the Consider some of these wider effects. The problem with regulating AI, how- doing so, ultimately defeating China.
puters. So, what might be the implica- computer. The study estimates that middle and upper-middle classes. The Yes, we might have unbribable and ever, is that unlike, say, drugs, which have Humanity is Doctor Faustus. It, too,
tions? Can we control them? generative AI, in particular, might raise social and political impact of such shifts rational judges and better science. But a known target (the human body) and seeks knowledge and power and is pre-
The natural starting point is with jobs annual growth of labour productivity appear all too evident, even if the overall we might also have a world of perfectly known goals (a cure of some kind) AI is pared to make almost any bargain to
and productivity. A paper by David in the US by 1.5 percentage points. The effect is indeed to raise productivity. faked information, pictures and identi- a general purpose technology. It is poly- achieve it, regardless of consequences.
Autor of MIT and co-authors provides surge would be bigger in high-income Unlike horses, people will not disappear. ties. We might have more powerful valent. It can change economies, national Even worse, it is a species of competing
a useful analytical framework and countries than developing ones, though They have votes, too. (See charts.) monopolies and plutocrats. We might competitiveness, relative power, social Doctor Faustuses, who seek knowledge
sobering conclusions on what has timing is uncertain. Yet these economic effects are very have almost complete surveillance by relations, politics, education and science. and power, as he did. We have been
happened in the past. It distinguishes Globally, it suggests, 18 per cent of far from the whole story. AI is a much governments and companies. We might It can change how we think and create, experiencing the impact of the social
labour-augmenting from labour-auto- work could be automated by AI, again bigger change than that. It raises deep have far more effective manipulation of perhaps even how we understand our media revolution on our society and
mating innovation. It concludes that with larger effects in high-income coun- the democratic political process. Yuval place within the world. politics. Some warn of its consequences
“the majority of current employment is tries. In the case of the US, the estimated Harari argues that “democracy is a con- We cannot hope to work out all these for our children. But we cannot halt the
in new job specialities introduced after
1940”. But the locus of this new work
share of work exposed to AI ranges from
between 15 and 35 per cent. The most
We cannot hope to versation, and conversations rely on
language. When AI hacks language, it
effects. They are too complex. It would be
like trying to understand the effect of the
bargains we have made. We will not halt
this revolution either. We are Faustus.
has shifted from middle-paid produc- vulnerable jobs will be office and agree on what is to be could destroy our ability to have mean- printing press in the 15th century. We We are Mephistopheles. The AI revolu-
tion and clerical occupations prior to
1980 to highly paid professional and,
administrative, legal and architecture
and engineering. The least exposed will
favoured and what ingful conversations, thereby destroy-
ing democracy.” Daron Acemoglu of
cannot hope to agree on what is to be
favoured and what is to be prevented.
tion will roll on.

secondarily, low-paid services there- be in construction, installation and is to be prevented MIT argues that we need to understand And even if some countries did, we would martin.wolf@ft.com

Congress must act to protect smaller banks from investor nerves

banks. We provided targeted, temporary kept confidence in the FDIC’s perfect, term Treasuries into bank deposits their transaction accounts were safe. We a bank fails, two-thirds majorities of
Sheila increases in deposit insurance caps that 90-year record of protecting them. The which can offer quicker access to funds. did not cap coverage because with little, both the FDIC and Federal Reserve
Bair helped healthy regional and community
banks retain their most valuable busi-
problem is with the $7tn deposits above
the $250,000 deposit cap. But universal
It does make sense to provide unlim-
ited coverage for transaction accounts
if any, yield on the accounts, depositors
had incentives to maintain only the bal-
Boards must approve use of those pow-
ers. It is highly questionable whether
ness accounts. Regrettably, under the coverage for all accounts is not the used by businesses and other organisa- ances required for operations. Moreo- Republican appointees will keep pro-
Dodd-Frank Act, Congress must now answer. We need wealthier, more tions to receive and make payments. ver, a key goal of TAG was to stem viding votes to bail out the uninsured.

I
authorise the FDIC to take such action. sophisticated depositors to monitor These typically pay low or zero interest increasing deposit concentration in the Regional banks have a target on their
n times of financial turmoil, big Given persistent, if unwarranted, hyste- because they are used by depositors mega banks. With caps, larger employ- backs — and perhaps deserve some
banks get bigger. Their massive ria around the health of regional banks, to support operations, not generate ers would continue to move their comeuppance for their 2018 lobbying to
balance sheets let them gobble up
troubled competitors. Uninsured
it should act quickly to do so.
To be sure, today’s turmoil is over-
Wealthier depositors returns. Protecting these accounts
ensures that employers with uninsured
accounts away from the smaller banks.
While the Dodd-Frank Act now
weaken oversight. Nonetheless, the vast
majority are sound, well managed and
depositors flock to the safety of blown. Accounts that depict three should monitor institutions deposits at a failed bank can continue requires Congressional authorisation play an important role in providing
their perceived too-big-to-fail status.
This happened during the 2008 finan-
recent bank failures as larger than those
in 2008 are misleading. In 2008, it was
and exert market discipline accessing funds for payroll and other
expenses. However, transaction
for TAG, there is a fast track. During the
Covid emergency, the Trump adminis-
credit. They and community banks
were heroes during the 2008 crisis, con-
cial crisis when I chaired the Federal huge banks like Citigroup that were in on the badly managed accounts cannot always be moved tration secured temporary reinstate- tinuing to lend even as many mega
Deposit Insurance Corporation. It is trouble. The government did not let quickly. During uncertain times, busi- ment of the FDIC’s TAG authority, banks pulled back. To promote banking
happening again today as America’s them fail. These three recent failures banks and exert market discipline on ness depositors assess whether they which fortunately the FDIC never had to competition and mitigate concentra-
largest bank, JPMorgan Chase, grows total $532bn in assets in a $23tn system those that are badly managed. With uni- should pre-emptively transfer their use. But today, given political polarisa- tions of power, we need to help them
through both deposit inflows and the comprised of over 4,000 banks. There is versal coverage, reckless banks could business to a too-big-to-fail bank even if tion, the Biden administration has not protect their core business accounts.
acquisition of a failed bank. no crisis, unless media hype and short offer high yields to attract large deposi- their own bank is not in distress. asked for a Congressional go-ahead. Congress needs to reinstate TAG.
The FDIC is legally required to sell a selling pressure undermine confidence tors who would ignore the risks, know- To address this problem, we launched Instead, it is working with regulators
failed bank to the highest bidder, but so that depositors flee otherwise healthy ing the FDIC would protect them. It the Transaction Account Guarantee (or to implicitly guarantee uninsured The writer is a former chair of the Federal
during the 2008 crisis we had emergency banks. Polls show they are nervous. could also distort capital flows away TAG programme) during the crisis. It accounts using special emergency pow- Deposit Insurance Corporation and a senior
powers to stem deposit flows to the mega Insured depositors have traditionally from money market funds and short- successfully reassured depositors that ers unsuited to that purpose. Each time fellow at the Center for Financial Stability
24 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Wednesday 10 May 2023

Direct Line: cash repair needed

Motor insurance prices in the UK are rising at the fastest pace in decades. Growth in Direct Line premiums
lags behind peers and contributed to underwriting losses last year. The improved outlook for motor insurers
should help rebuild the group’s capital this year.

Twitter: @FTLex Direct Line capital position

Solvency II ratio (%)
180

Saudi Aramco: The clarity and generosity of the new

distribution policy are welcome. But
160
Apollo/annuities:
140
well priced without a bigger free float — and with it
120
stun run
the prospect of robust price discovery
A meagre dividend yield blunted — the shares should remain the 100 Is there such a thing as an “annuity
investor enthusiasm for Saudi Aramco preserve of Gulf specialists. FY21 Capital Market FY22 loss FY22 2023* 2024* run”? The question has quietly dogged
return moves/other *Forecast
stock when it listed in Riyadh in 2019. private capital firm Apollo Global
The world’s biggest oil group is Cost of motoring Direct Line pricing Management amid depositor runs on
loosening its purse strings. Yesterday, it
announced plans to add performance-
Tempur/Mattress Firm: Retail price index vehicle tax and insurance (annual % change) Average premium growth (annual % change) US regional banks in recent months.
This matters because Apollo’s
15
linked dividends to its payouts. The now sleep on it 40 Direct Line
10 $438bn credit business is poised to
30
company’s shares edged up almost Market average
5
take advantage of shifts in corporate
4 per cent on the news. Tempur Sealy is restless in its mission 20 lending triggered by banking turmoil.
10 0
The performance-linked distribution to dominate dreamland. The US Apollo’s core liability base, its
is expected to mop up 50 to 70 per cent mattress maker is buying Mattress 0 -5 $250bn Athene annuity business, is not
of annual free cash flow, after taking Firm in a cash and stock deal valued at -10 -10 well understood by all Wall Street
account of the base dividend and about $4bn, including debt. 2008 12 14 16 18 20 23 2021 2022 Q1 investors. Shares in Apollo are merely
Sources: Barclays Research; company; Visible Alpha; ONS; Refinitiv; ABI 2023
external investments. RBC analysts The purchase of the specialist flat this year. One rival with its own
expect that to generate up to $12bn- retailer brings vertical integration to formidable credit business, Ares, has
$18bn of extra payouts next year. That the world of horizontal recuperation. Anyone who has bought UK car The market is now finding its A more conservative approach to seen its stock jump a fifth in 2023.
would raise the dividend yield by as The timing, amid a slowdown in insurance lately will have been equilibrium. That should help Direct reserves is one reason. These have The mismatch left Apollo attempting
much as a fifth from 3.5 per cent. demand, is one concern. Another is the shocked by soaring prices. They have Line restore profitability, forecast at supported Admiral’s earnings over to reassure analysts on yesterday’s
Even so, the yield will be lower than debt Tempur will take on. not helped Direct Line so far. It £220mn for this year, according to an the past five years. At Direct Line, first-quarter earnings call. Its message
for international oil majors. That is not Privately held Mattress Firm warned of pressure on profits updated Visible Alpha consensus. their contribution to earnings has was that it was hard for annuity
a sign of stinginess. Majors paid out 30 reported net income of €389mn on yesterday. The goal of an incoming The company’s average motor shrunk dramatically. policyholders to take back their funds
to 40 per cent of their operating cash revenues of €4bn last year. Tempur’s chief executive should be to tease a renewal premiums rose 19 per cent in Capital is also higher. Admiral’s and they were unlikely to do so en
flow last year, according to Citi. offer — of $2.7bn in cash and $1.3bn of turnround from higher policy prices. the first quarter compared with 2022 Solvency II ratio has averaged 190 masse. Apollo showed trend data
Aramco paid out nearly half. stock — values the target at about 9.2 The market for motor insurance is but policy volumes fell 2.5 per cent. per cent over the past five years, suggesting withdrawals and surrenders
Rather, it reflects Aramco’s inflated times enterprise value to adjusted tough. The company says claims That compares with falls of 5 per cent compared with 170 per cent for in the first three months were largely
valuation. The shares trade on 16 times ebitda. That compares with the 11.5 inflation will hit earnings this year. It and 3 per cent respectively last year. Direct Line. in line with historical norms. Inflows of
forward earnings. That is a fifth lower times that Tempur itself trades on. was already struggling. Direct Line The shares fell 7.6 per cent yesterday, A good run might get Direct Line retail funds remained healthy.
than the average since it floated in The price is less in inflation-adjusted scrapped dividends and waved taking the decrease to one-third over back to 160 per cent this year. Consumers were attracted by the
2019. The decline reflects the sharp fall terms than the EV of $3.8bn that goodbye to chief executive Penny the past year. A small capital raise would chance to reap greater returns now
in oil prices that pulled down Steinhoff, a scandal-hit South African James in January. Those with an eye on the top job at guarantee this, says Ivan Bokhmat, market interest rates are higher.
first-quarter net income by a fifth. retailer, paid for the business in 2016. Steeper costs for repairs and Direct Line should keep the other one an analyst at Barclays. Apollo’s life insurance business gives it
Nonetheless, the multiple is still more Tempur is hardly getting a bargain. injuries have curbed profits across on Admiral. Shares in the rival insurer It would give Direct Line a steadier a first-mover advantage over rivals
than twice the sector mean. Steinhoff overpaid back then. It ended motor insurance. Direct Line trailed persistently trade at 17 times forward route to capitalise on rising policy trying to catch up via pricey
The elevated valuation reflects the up taking €2.5bn of impairments on more than most and suffered a earnings, double Direct Line’s prices and deal with increased acquisitions of insurance blocks.
slim sliver of equity — about 2 per cent the business a year after buying it. £167mn underwriting loss last year. valuation. volatility in claims costs. Investing those annuity premiums
— listed by Aramco. The rest belongs to Mattress Firm filed for bankruptcy in was easier for Apollo thanks to wider
the state. Minority shareholders are 2018. A restructuring allowed it to credit spreads in its lending businesses.
mostly long-term and Gulf-based. close stores and shed some leases. The recently acquired securitised
Aramco has some fundamental Meanwhile, the mattress industry is uneasy until it can pay down largest market for LinkedIn after the will hardly dent its top line. products group of Credit Suisse was
strengths. It has massive reserves. Its going through a lumpy patch. Sales borrowings for a purchase with a US. In contrast, rivals including Microsoft entered the Chinese providing cash to the likes of PacWest,
oil is cheap to extract. Its balance sheet sagged as consumers put off big-ticket history of generating sleepless nights. Twitter, Facebook and Google have market in 1992. It set up Microsoft the besieged California-based bank.
is solid. In 2020, gearing rose to 23 per purchases. Mattress makers also face struggled there. Research, its first research facility in Apollo’s private equity business said
cent. High oil prices swiftly replenished higher costs and supply disruptions. LinkedIn, which had already closed Asia, in China a few years later. it found bargains, taking private
its coffers. By the end of March, its
gearing was minus 10.3 per cent.
Serta Simmons Bedding, one of the
US’s largest mattress makers, filed for
LinkedIn China: its local social networking site in 2021,
blamed a weak economy and tough
Reflecting geopolitical tensions,
Microsoft was among the first US
chemicals group Univar for $8bn and
Arconic, the metal products company,
Investment may also help Aramco’s bankruptcy protection earlier this year. the weakest link competition for the phase out of companies to ask hardware suppliers for $5bn. Asset managers will be the
shares. It is ramping up spending on oil At Tempur, sales were flat last year but InCareer. The move may also address to diversify production from China to winners if a chunk of credit origination
and gas. This year’s $45bn-$55bn net income fell 27 per cent. LinkedIn has been a surprise hit in data security fears about foreign social south-east Asia. shifts from deposit-taking institutions
budget is a third more than last year’s. By bulking up now, Tempur is China. But its days as the only big networks, strong in China as in the US. LinkedIn’s withdrawal from China permanently. Apollo has maintained
Its fossil fuel investments promise betting it can emerge positioned US-based social network operating are InCareer lacked the full functionality should benefit Tencent’s WeChat and that its constraint was never assets to
higher short-term returns than comfortably for an upturn. It expects ending. It is planning to phase out its of LinkedIn in the west. But a smaller locals such as Zhaopin and manage but allocation opportunities.
investments in renewables pursued by the deal to generate at least $100mn in simplified job-hunting app InCareer by messaging capacity may have Maimai. These two privately owned That dynamic has shifted. Bears are
oil majors. annual cost savings by the end of year early August. The move should make it prompted official suspicion. groups are already fierce competitors, therefore now scrutinising Apollo for
Aramco’s narrow focus is also a risk. four. Taxed and capitalised, these easier for parent Microsoft to operate The closure could help Microsoft the latter with more than 100mn users. signs of over-reach.
The energy transition will leave would be worth about $800mn. in China. expand, assuming it can avoid similar The implicit valuation of LinkedIn,
stranded assets. Saudi control is an But five years is a long time to wait. LinkedIn garnered 54mn users in concerns. The US software giant is which cost Microsoft $26bn in 2016, Lex on the web
issue for many external investors, Moreover, Tempur already has $2.9bn China, which it entered in 2014. That underexposed to China. In 2020, it said would be hit. But the real value of For notes on today’s stories
some of whom see Aramco as an arm of in net debt, equivalent to 3.2 times was unprecedented for a foreign the market produced just 1.8 per cent China for Microsoft is as a market for go to www.ft.com/lex
government. adjusted ebitda. Investors will rest platform, making China the second- of its global revenue. The shutdown software, not recruitment services.

CROSSWORD
No 17,411 Set by IO
ä á Þ Ú Ö Ò Î ACROSS

Ë 1 I’m afraid to return power to guard (4)

3 On holiday that’s very sweet indeed
È ä. (4)
6 Out of class with upset stomach? (4)
9 Kids caught with feet up on back of
ottoman (8)
10/21 Who’s showing poise capturing
ää äá
Odette’s heart by Lake - and Siegfried’s
finale? (6,6)
11 Take this for granted: “Full pint in
hand, elbow bent, waiting to toast ...” (14)
äÞ äÚ 13 Gun-belt my boss is wearing followed
emergency procedures? (9,4)
äÖ 16 Opening the morning paper is fine -
and ideal for Biden (8,5)
äÒ äÎ 19 Fax Murdoch’s organisation, pressing
the old man to film (1,5,2,6)
äË 21 See 10
23 Escape returning mist, engulfing
äÈ á. European solicitor (3,3,2)
24 Superb parts in short Ms Lopez put in
the can (4)
25 Courier’s last wage packets to deliver
(4)
áä áá áÞ
26 Eccentric motorist steering clear of
river (4)
DOWN
áÚ áÖ áÒ
1 Cabbage hearts; I save 50 fine boxes
up! (8)
2 The heart of very wicked sexologist
(5)
4 Pleasant women at home - that will do
JOTTER PAD this man! (7)
5 Together, “surly” and “objectionable”
would describe him (3)
Solution 17,410 6 Fellow, lying at the outset, broaching
fairies dancing? (9)
B Ú æ × æ ã N Ú Ý Ð ‚ 7 } ‚ 7 Result of Erling’s header breaking
8 E ‚ Ô ‚ } B deadlock? Yes and no (3-3)
Ý ‚ ~ B Ú × N 7 Ò B Ú ‚ H N 8 A problem to decipher lamentation
: Ý E : ‚ 7 read over Mass (10)
K : N } N Ô : æ H B Ú × B ~ 12 The low-down on a nudist’s nuts
} × ‚ N æ K
(3,3,4)
14 Like a beautiful maiden in lacy pants
K æ Ý N : B 8 € ~ Ý B € snorting speed (9)
K H ~ Ý : B N 15 For Spooner, this would be just mere
‚ K ‚ Ý ‚ 7 ‚ ~ æ 7 } ‚ monogamy (4-4)
N N Ú Ò Ú : 17 One does wow a holder of securities!
B 7 × N Ý 7 8 N 7 × æ Ý € Ú (7)
Ú æ Ý H H æ 18 A fool topped with British fruit (6)
Ý B 7 H Ð æ Ý 8 ‚ 7 B 8 ‚ : 20 Wild South African ostrich strangely
You can now solve our crosswords excluded from this? (5)
Ò ‚ 㠂 Ú Ú × in the new FT crossword app at 22 Official who’s mobbed by Tranmere
× N 7 Ú N Ú 7 N ã æ × B Ú 8 ft.com/crosswordapp fans (3)