GDODroughtNews202106 Brazil PDF

GDO Analytical Report
Drought in centre-south Brazil – June 2021

JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency
Management Service (CEMS) - 22/06/2021
Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................................................................ 1
Risk of drought impact for agriculture (RDrI-Agri)......................................................................... 2
Precipitation .................................................................................................................................... 3
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) ........................................................................................... 5
SPI outlook ...................................................................................................................................... 7
Soil moisture and groundwater anomaly ....................................................................................... 8
fAPAR anomaly ............................................................................................................................. 10
CEMADEN’s Integrated Drought Index (IDI) ................................................................................. 12
Reported impacts .......................................................................................................................... 13
Executive summary
 Drought is affecting central-southern Brazil (including the states of Minas Gerais, São Paulo,
Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul) and parts of Paraguay and Bolivia, an area roughly
corresponding geographically to the Paraná basin. With shrinking reservoirs, hydropower
production is at risk, with potential cascading effects on the whole economy of these
countries. Crop damages have been reported from Brazil and more impacts on the primary
sector are expected in the coming months. Ecosystems, including those of Pantanal (the
largest tropical wetlands area in the world), are also affected. Brazilian authorities have
declared drought emergency for the Paraná Basin until November 2021.
 A lack of precipitation during most of 2021, combined with the marked deficit accumulated
during 2020, has led to the current dry conditions, as reflected both by groundwater levels
and soil moisture. Some locations (e.g. eastern São Paulo state) received nearly half of the
expected rainfall during this period. Deforestation of the Amazon, global warming, and La
Niña, in addition to natural inter-annual variability, are considered to be the main drivers of
the increasing incidence of drought that has affected the region in recent years.
 The six-month precipitation outlook leans towards normal conditions and, despite
uncertainty, suggests no meaningful recovery for at least the trimester up to August 2021.
Depending on the amount of precipitation in the last quarter of 2021, the next growing
season might be affected. Concerning surface water and groundwater supplies, these may
well evince below average conditions, due to the long-term deficits accumulated in 2020
and 2021.
Global Drought Observatory: http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 1

Risk of drought impact for agriculture (RDrI-Agri)

The GDO indicator RDrI-Agri shows the risk of having impacts from a drought, by taking into
account the exposure and socio-economic vulnerability of the area, with particular focus on
agricultural impacts.
Regarding precipitation, 2020 was a difficult year for large parts of South America, with
unrelenting deficits spread over vast areas, notably across the whole La Plata / Paraná Basin
(north-east Argentina, Paraguay, eastern Bolivia, Uruguay, southern Brazil; Figure 1, right).
During the following months conditions improved in some places, but not in Brazil. Despite
flooding in the Amazon basin and in the northern Brazil1, 2021 brought dry conditions in the
centre-south of the country, within the Paraná basin in particular and especially the upper
Paraná. Moderate risks of impact loom primarily over the states of Minas Gerais, São Paulo,
Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul (Figure 1, left. For reference to Brazilian states see Figure 14).
Neighbouring regions, including fringes of Paraguay, Argentina and Bolivia, are also affected.
Overall, about 15-20 million people are exposed to moderate to high risks of drought impacts.
Though it has fluctuated, some level of risk has been constantly present in the area for many
months, as illustrated by the time-series data shown in Figure 2.
Agriculture is an important sector of Brazilian economy, and the centre-south of the country is
a key area for agricultural production, particularly for grains, oilseeds, and cattle. Brazil is a
major global producer of soybeans, maize, sugar and coffee, to the extent that the country
annual yields influence global prices. In the centre-south, thanks to modern agriculture and a
good coping capacity, food security is not a concern and population vulnerability is relatively
low, although poverty is still common.
Ecosystems are also seriously threatened by drought. The Pantanal region, an area of utmost
importance for global biodiversity and home to several Ramsar sites2, is currently affected, with
its ecosystems exposed following the marked drought of 20203, 4.
Limited precipitation in the upper Paraná Basin may determine hydrological drought conditions
hundreds of kilometres to the south, where rivers are a key resource for the local and national
economies of Paraguay and Argentina. Indeed, both countries are strongly dependent on
waterborne inland transportation and hydropower. Paraguay’s power generation is 100%
hydroelectric5, and Brazil also relies on hydropower for two thirds of its needs. During the second
1
https://erccportal.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ERCmaps/ECDM_20210611_South-America_Floods.pdf
2
Convention on Wetlands https://www.ramsar.org/sites-countries/wetlands-of-international-importance
3
https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/documents/news/GDODroughtNews202004_Great_Chaco_and_Paraguay_basin.pdf
4
https://phys.org/news/2021-05-extreme-drought-affected-pantanal.html
5
https://www.hydropower.org/country-profiles/paraguay

half of 2020, relevant impacts were recorded to the aforementioned sectors and, given current
conditions, they are likely to continue towards the end of 20216.
Figure 1: Left: risk of drought impact for agriculture (RDrI-Agri), 1 to 10 June 2021; the box
outlines the La Plata basin. Right: La Plata Basin (credits: Kmusser, CC BY-SA 3.0, Wikimedia C.).
Figure 2: Risk of drought impact (RDrI-Agri), evolution over time in São Paulo state (Brazil).
Precipitation
Precipitation is measured by total monthly levels of rainfall, as shown in Figure 3. Precipitation
patterns are radically different between the upper Paraná Basin (and inner regions northwards)
and the lower area of the basin. The upper area, currently at the core of the drought, has a
marked inter-seasonal variation, with a brief dry season and a peak around December and
6
Chapter 4.5
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC125320/jrc125320_annual_droughts_report_final.pdf

January (Figure 3, top and centre). Seasonality of rainfall fades away mid-basin, over the cross-
boundary area of Paraguay, Brazil and Argentina (Figure 3, bottom). Nevertheless, strong deficits
were recorded in both parts of the basin, and many months show half or less the long-term
average. In several areas, the accumulated deficit during the whole of 2020 and the first half
of 2021 is remarkable, as displayed by Figure 4, reaching a mere 50% of the long-term average
expected for the same period.
North-west of São
Paulo state, near
Pontalinda,
-20.4 N, -50.6 E
North-west of Mato
Grosso do Sul,
-19.1 N, -56.1 E
West Paraná,
-24.2 N, -53.0 E
Figure 3: Monthly total precipitation (blue bars) in three selected locations, with the long-term
monthly average and standard deviation (1981-2010).

The severe droughts of the past ten years over the wider Paraná Basin can be linked to a variety
of drivers, beyond the inter-annual natural fluctuations of rainfall. Deforestation of the Amazon
may cause a reduction of cloud formation and rainfall southwards7. Global warming could
increase loss of humidity8. Especially in relation to the current drought, La Niña may also play a
key role9.
Figure 4: Cumulative precipitation over a period of 18 months near Pontalinda (São Paulo,
Brazil, -20.4 N, -50.6 E). The bar colors indicate the cumulative deficit (red gradient) or surplus
(blue gradient), compared to the cumulated monthly long-term average (solid line), for the same
time span and location. The boxes overlapping the bars are the monthly totals stacked.
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

The GDO indicator SPI is used to monitor the occurrence of meteorological drought. The lower
(i.e. more negative) the SPI, the more intense is the drought.
Very low values in the mid- and long-term SPIs are observed over an enormous area spanning
across central and southern Brazil, indicating a very severe meteorological drought (Figure 5).
The similarity between the anomaly distributions at the 9- and 24-month time-scale suggests
how both the last wettest months and those of 2019/2020 brought much less rainfall than
normal, and roughly over the same geographical regions. In the shorter term, only some
locations seem to experience strong deficit (Figure 5, bottom), but still among those hardest hit
previously (Pantanal in Mato Grosso do Sul and the east, western São Paulo, southern Minas
7
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frwa.2021.639204/full
8
https://www.scielo.br/j/brag/a/YJWkkMVrfYKbgJmbTrBynbL/
9
http://www.cnpt.embrapa.br/pesquisa/agromet/pdf/applications/cap11.pdf

Gerais, parts of Paraná). Looking at the extent and values of SPI-24 in particular, this drought
event is likely to have influence on soil conditions and water availability in general, for quite a
long time. Indeed, as the time-series of Figure 6 show, the current prolonged lack of precipitation
is the severest on record since at least 1970 at different time scales and locations.
According to Brazil’s Centre for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN10),
“drought duration, measured by continuous SPI values, is longer than six months mostly over
Central Brazil and the northwest part of São Paulo state”.
Figure 5: SPI for May 2021, at cumulative

periods of 24 months (top-left), 9 months
(top-right), 3 months (bottom-right).
10 Contributed by Dr. Marcelo Zeri, Dr. Ana Paula Martins do Amaral Cunha, Dr. Luz Adriana Cuartas, Dr. José A. Marengo

Figure 6: Time-series of SPI for two selected locations: western São Paulo (SPI-12, top), and
Pantanal (Mato Grosso do Sul, SPI-48, bottom).
SPI outlook
In June 2021, the region is at the start of its driest period of the year- more so especially far
from the coast and north of Paraguay - with no chance to recover from the accumulated deficits.

Therefore, the neutral outlook for the trimester from June to August is of limited relevance (not
shown). At the six-month time-scale, uncertainty is still high, and mostly neutral conditions are
forecasted up to November 2021, over the areas currently experiencing drought (Figure 7). Some
improvement may happen in the states of Paraná (south) and Santa Catarina, where rainfall is
more evenly distributed during the year and more abundant overall. Higher than average
precipitation is expected to the north-east, but any extra rainfall there would not bring relief,
since all receiving rivers drain northwards and away from the affected basins (Paraná).
Figure 7: SPI outlook for the six months

from June to November 2021 (SPI-6),
based on ECMWF S5 ensemble forecasts.
Soil moisture and groundwater anomaly

The aim of the GDO soil moisture indicator is to provide an assessment of the topsoil water
content, which is a direct measure of drought conditions, specifically the difficulty for plants to
extract water from the soil.
At the end of 2020, soil moisture conditions were very poor across most of southern Brazil and
beyond to Argentina, as well as eastern Paraguay and the Bolivian lowlands (Figure 8, top-left).
By January 2021, all soil moisture deficits appeared to have been compensated and even
surpluses are indicated in some of the same areas, thanks to abundant precipitation recorded
around this time (Figure 8, top-right). However, as soon as precipitation decreased again during
all of the following months, moisture deficits returned, especially in states of São Paulo, Minas
Gerais and Mato Grosso do Sul (Figure 8, bottom-left). The trend of the anomalies is well
captured by the time-series from São Paulo state (Figure 9).

A further constraint on water availability is the depletion of groundwater, as captured by the

total water storage anomalies. As of March 2021, a groundwater negative anomaly was
detected over a wide belt just north of Paraguay, spanning from eastern Bolivia to the Atlantic
coast, including the Brazilian Pantanal (Figure 10). The whole area has been constantly affected
by relatively low groundwater levels since May 2020, as shown by reduced levels in rivers and
wetlands, without providing any buffering against short-term fluctuations in precipitation for
water abstraction.
Figure 8: Soil moisture anomaly for selected

periods: November 2020 (top-left), January
2021 (top-right), May 2021 (bottom-left).

Figure 9: Soil moisture anomaly, evolution over time in state of São Paulo (Brazil).
Figure 10: Gravity Recovery and Climate

Experiment (GRACE) Total Water Storage
(TWS) Anomaly over Brazil, March 2021.
fAPAR anomaly
The satellite-based GDO indicator fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation
(fAPAR) represents the fraction of the solar energy absorbed by leaves. fAPAR anomalies,
specifically the negative deviations from the long-term average over the same period, are a
good indicator of drought impacts on vegetation.
In line with soil moisture, widespread fAPAR negative anomalies were detected across the
centre-south of Brazil at the end of 2020 (figure 11, top-left). Conditions improved in the first
quarter of 2021 in some areas, at the core of the growing season, and decreased again since

April 2021 (figure 11, top-right and bottom-left respectively). Such oscillations reflect quite well
the same trends observed for soil moisture and groundwater anomalies in the upper Paraná
basin. However, in the Pantanal area (Mato Grosso do Sul) and eastern Paraguay, positive
conditions persist overall, and may indicate a higher resilience of vegetation.
Figure 11: fAPAR anomaly centre-south

Brazil, for the periods between: 21 October
and 1st November 2020 (top-left); 21 March
and 1st of April 2021 (top-right); 21 May
and 1st of June 2021 (bottom-left).

CEMADEN’s Integrated Drought Index (IDI)11

The analysis of the GDO drought indicators, outlined previously, leads to similar conclusions as
the results of the Integrated Drought Index (IDI), calculated by Brazil’s Centre for Monitoring and
Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN). The IDI indicator is calculated as an average of
the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, 3- and 6-months scales), and the satellite products
Vegetation Health Index (VHI, by NOAA), and Relative Extractable Water (REW), from NASA Soil
Moisture Active Passive satellite (SMAP). The indices are converted to five different classes of
drought intensity and one class of normal conditions (Figure 12).
Figure 12: Integrated Drought Index (IDI) / Índice Integrado de Seca (IIS), using VHI, REW, and
SPI for May 2021 at temporal scale of 3 (left) and 6 (right) months.
The driving index for the CEMADEN and GDO indicators is SPI, which explains the agreement
between the results. The value of the IDI for May 2021, compared with April, exhibits drought
conditions over most of the country, with intensification over regions Central-West Brazil (Região
Centro-Oeste do Brasil), Southeast Brazil (Região Sudeste do Brasil) and South Brazil (Região
Sul do Brasil). Overall, moderate to extreme drought conditions predominate over the states of
Mato Grosso do Sul (including the Pantanal region) and São Paulo. When compared with April
2021, an intensification of drought conditions was observed over the central part of the state
of Minas Gerais, over the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, and over the western part of the Northeast
11
Contributed by Dr. Marcelo Zeri, Dr. Ana Paula Martins do Amaral Cunha, Dr. Luz Adriana Cuartas, Dr. José A. Marengo

region (Região Nordeste do Brasil). Conversely, decreasing drought was observed over most of
the South region, except for its western part.
Reported impacts
Brazilian authorities have declared a drought emergency for the Paraná basin and all sectors
affected by the drought in the region, until November 202112 13.
Reservoirs and rivers levels are very low for the period, the worst on record for many of them
as of early May 2021, and essentially unchanged since then14 15. Both Brazil and Paraguay are
highly dependent on hydropower: shrinking reservoirs are threatening hydroelectric generation
and, as drought hits hydropower production, electricity prices are set to increase, with potential
consequences on inflation16 17.
According to information from CEMADEN18, the Itaipu Hydropower Plant (HPP) recorded inflow
of 46% of the long-term mean, the lowest ever recorded for May during the interval 1993-
2020. The Segredo HPP presented inflow values below the long-term mean since March 2021,
with inflow of 25% of the long-term mean in May. The Passo Real HPP, has inflow of 39% of
the average value for May. Over Central Brazil, the inflow of Serra da Mesa HPP was 69% of
the mean, while the reservoir level at the end of May was at 37% of full capacity. Over the
Southeast Brazil, the Furnas HPP registered an inflow of 45% of the mean, with its reservoir at
only 37% of full capacity. The reservoir at the Três Marias HS has 66% of its capacity, with
inflow of 45% of the mean for May. Finally, for the Cantareira System, the main water supply
for the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo, the inflow was of 34% of the mean, which represents
48% of the full capacity reservoir. It is lower than the value of 58% for May 2020.
Authorities may grant transitory waivers on minimum flows regulations for power production,
albeit those may affect transportation, ecosystems and other uses downstream. The Paraná
waterway is key to maintain the export capacity needed for Brazilian agricultural products, as
well as for Paraguay and Argentina economies downstream, and negotiations on the best
12
https://www.gov.br/ana/pt-br/assuntos/monitoramento-e-eventos-criticos/eventos-criticos/salas-de-
acompanhamento/Paraná/ResolucaoANA771junho2021.pdf
13
https://g1.globo.com/economia/blog/ana-flor/post/2021/05/28/comite-do-governo-emite-alerta-de-risco-hidrico-e-tenta-
evitar-racionamento-de-energia.ghtml
14
acompanhamento/Paraná/NTC_3_2021_ANA.pdf
15
acompanhamento/Paraná/documentos/2o-reuniao-gta-Paraná-17jun21.pdf
16
https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy/historic-drought-threatens-brazils-economy.phtml
17
https://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2021/04/30/conta-de-luz-fica-mais-cara-em-maio-e-tera-bandeira-vermelha-1-
define-aneel.ghtml
18
Personal communication: Dr. Marcelo Zeri, Dr. Ana Paula Martins do Amaral Cunha, Dr. Luz Adriana Cuartas, Dr. José A.
Marengo

tradeoffs are open at government level19. Water supply is not at risk overall as of June 2021,
with some exceptions20, and government is keen to avoid water rationing21.
Concerning agriculture, more than two thirds of the affected area is used for agro-pastoralism
(crop and livestock production) and drought has direct negative impacts on the sector. Strong
impacts are expected on livestock in Mato Grosso do Sul and western São Paulo 22. EMBRAPA
(Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária, Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation) flags
at risk the irrigated land and agricultural crops with long cycles, such as coffee, sugarcane, fruit
and forest species. Impacts seem to be already confirmed on coffee, for example, and its price
is expected to go up23. As a matter of facts, according to assessments for May 202124, 2445
municipalities (approximately 50% of the total number of municipalities of Brazil) showed at
least 40% of its crop areas under drought. Overall, the regions most affected are Southeast and
South Brazil, with 63% and 56% of municipalities, respectively, with more than 40% of crop
areas under drought.
Although not directly related to the drought analysis presented here, drought drives wildfire
hazard, which currently classified as moderate to high in most of the upper Paraná basin (Figure
13), including the Pantanal area. There, prospects are bad for the incoming fire season 25, after
an already extremely dry 2020, a situation of increasing detriment to the ecosystems.
19
acompanhamento/parana/documentos/oficio-rec-650-2021-se-minf-1.pdf
20
https://www.aen.pr.gov.br/modules/noticias/article.php?storyid=113133&tit=Estiagem-mantem-impacto-na-RMC-e-afeta-
bacias-dos-rios-Paraná-e-Iguacu
21
https://g1.globo.com/sp/sao-paulo/noticia/2021/05/28/governo-federal-emite-alerta-de-emergencia-hidrica-para-estado-de-
sp-de-junho-a-setembro-previsao-e-de-seca-para-o-periodo.ghtml
22
https://www.embrapa.br/busca-de-noticias/-/noticia/62597909/artigo-mapeamento-das-areas-afetadas-pela-estiagem-no-
brasil
23
https://www.aen.pr.gov.br/modules/noticias/article.php?storyid=112775&tit=Boletim-agropecuario-aponta-retracao-de-9-na-
producao-de-cafe-e-valorizacao-no-preco
24
Source: CEMADEN, personal communication from Dr. Marcelo Zeri, Dr. Ana Paula Martins do Amaral Cunha, Dr. Luz Adriana
Cuartas, Dr. José A. Marengo
25
https://news.trust.org/item/20210527151317-4dqdn

Figure 13: Fire danger forecast according to the Fire Weather Index, 21st of June 2021. Source:
Global Wildfire Information System , GWIS26
Figure 14: Map of Brazilian

States (Credits: I, , CC BY-SA
3.0, via Wikimedia Commons).
26
https://gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis_current_situation/

Distribution: For use by the ERCC and related partners, and publicly available for download at
GDO website: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/reports
Authors:
Barbosa P.i
Bavera D.ii
Masante D.i
Cammalleri C.i
Magni D.ii
McCormick N.i
Naumann G.i
Spinoni J.i
Disclaimer and Legal Notice: this report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) is a product under
constant development and may change at any time without notice. It was generated using
Copernicus Emergency Management Service information (2021). The views expressed may not
be regarded as an official position of the European Commission (EC) in any circumstances. The
designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression
of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any
country, territory or area or of its authorities or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or
boundaries.
i
Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission
ii
Arcadia SIT, Vigevano, Italy

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GDO Analytical Report

Drought in centre-south Brazil – June 2021

Global Drought Observatory: http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 1

Risk of drought impact for agriculture (RDrI-Agri)

Global Drought Observatory: http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 2

Global Drought Observatory: http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 3

Global Drought Observatory: http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 4

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

Global Drought Observatory: http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 5

Figure 5: SPI for May 2021, at cumulative

Global Drought Observatory: http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 6

Global Drought Observatory: http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 7

Figure 7: SPI outlook for the six months

Soil moisture and groundwater anomaly

Global Drought Observatory: http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 8

A further constraint on water availability is the depletion of groundwater, as captured by the

Figure 8: Soil moisture anomaly for selected

Global Drought Observatory: http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 9

Figure 10: Gravity Recovery and Climate

Global Drought Observatory: http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 10

Figure 11: fAPAR anomaly centre-south

Global Drought Observatory: http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 11

CEMADEN’s Integrated Drought Index (IDI)11

Global Drought Observatory: http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 12

Global Drought Observatory: http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 13

Global Drought Observatory: http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 14

Figure 14: Map of Brazilian

Global Drought Observatory: http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 15

Global Drought Observatory: http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 16

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