Intrinsic Value Calculation Formula Sven Carlin 4
Intrinsic Value Calculation Formula Sven Carlin 4
Intrinsic Value Calculation Formula Sven Carlin 4
Disclaimer: This is just for educational purposes and not for investing advice!
Terminal
Value Growth rate
2027 2028 2029 2030 2030 3% next 5 years
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2% 5 to 10 years
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10% Discount rate
12.0 Terminal multiple
Terminal
Value Growth rate
2027 2028 2029 2030 2030 1% next 5 years
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1% 5 to 10 years
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10% Discount rate
9.0 Terminal multiple
input cells
result cells
PV( %)
Tesla
Scenario 1 Cashflow 2020 billions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
normal case 2.00 2.80 3.92 5.49 7.68 10.76 15.06
in EUR PV(10%) 2.55 3.24 4.12 5.25 6.68 8.50
INTRINSIC VALUE 572.70
Scenario 2 Cashflow 2020 billions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
best case 2.00 3.00 4.50 6.75 10.13 15.19 21.26
in EUR PV(10%) 2.73 3.72 5.07 6.92 9.43 12.00
Present value sum 1030.59
Scenario 3 Cashflow 2020 billions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
worst case 2.00 2.50 3.13 3.91 4.88 6.10 7.02
in EUR PV(10%) 2.27 2.58 2.93 3.34 3.79 3.96
Present value sum 160.08
Disclaimer: This is just for educational purposes and not for investing advice!
Terminal
Value Growth rate
2027 2028 2029 2030 2030 50% next 5 years
29.77 41.67 58.34 81.68 2333.77 40% 5 to 10 years
15.28 19.44 24.74 31.49 899.77 10% Discount rate
40.0 Terminal multiple
Terminal
Value Growth rate
2027 2028 2029 2030 2030 25% next 5 years
8.07 9.28 10.68 12.28 320.25 15% 5 to 10 years
4.14 4.33 4.53 4.73 123.47 10% Discount rate
30.0 Terminal multiple
input cells
result cells
PV( %)
Nestle
Scenario 1 Cashflow 2020 billions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
normal case 11.00 11.22 11.44 11.67 11.91 12.14 12.39
in EUR PV(6%) 10.58 10.19 9.80 9.43 9.08 8.73
INTRINSIC VALUE 273.09
Scenario 2 Cashflow 2020 billions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
best case 11.00 11.44 11.90 12.37 12.87 13.38 13.78
in EUR PV(6%) 10.79 10.59 10.39 10.19 10.00 9.72
Present value sum 350.21
Scenario 3 Cashflow 2020 billions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
worst case 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00
in EUR PV(6%) 10.38 9.79 9.24 8.71 8.22 7.75
Present value sum 203.81
Disclaimer: This is just for educational purposes and not for investing advice!
Terminal
Value Growth rate
2027 2028 2029 2030 2030 4% next 5 years
14.20 14.62 15.06 15.51 451.89 3% 5 to 10 years
9.44 9.18 8.92 8.66 252.33 6% Discount rate
30.0 Terminal multiple
Terminal
Value Growth rate
2027 2028 2029 2030 2030 0% next 5 years
11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 220.00 0% 5 to 10 years
7.32 6.90 6.51 6.14 122.85 6% Discount rate
20.0 Terminal multiple
input cells
result cells
PV( %)
Kroger
Scenario 1 Cashflow 2020 billions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
normal case 1.50 1.53 1.56 1.59 1.62 1.66 1.69
in EUR PV(10%) 1.39 1.29 1.20 1.11 1.03 0.95
INTRINSIC VALUE 20.50
Scenario 2 Cashflow 2020 billions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
best case 1.50 1.55 1.59 1.64 1.69 1.74 1.79
in EUR PV(10%) 1.40 1.32 1.23 1.15 1.08 1.01
Present value sum 29.50
Scenario 3 Cashflow 2020 billions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
worst case 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.47
in EUR PV(10%) 1.36 1.24 1.13 1.02 0.93 0.83
Present value sum 13.29
Disclaimer: This is just for educational purposes and not for investing advice!
Terminal
Value Growth rate
2027 2028 2029 2030 2030 3% next 5 years
1.84 1.90 1.96 2.02 48.93 3% 5 to 10 years
0.95 0.89 0.83 0.78 18.86 10% Discount rate
25.0 Terminal multiple
Terminal
Value Growth rate
2027 2028 2029 2030 2030 0% next 5 years
1.44 1.41 1.38 1.36 11.07 -2% 5 to 10 years
0.74 0.66 0.59 0.52 4.27 10% Discount rate
8.0 Terminal multiple
input cells
result cells
PV( %)
UNILEVER PLC
Disclaimer: This is just for educational purposes and not for investing advice!
Terminal
Value Growth rate
2027 2028 2029 2030 2030 5% next 5 years
2.32 2.44 2.56 2.69 63.99 5% 5 to 10 years
1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 39.29 5% Discount rate
25.0 Terminal multiple
Terminal
Value Growth rate
2027 2028 2029 2030 2030 -2% next 5 years
1.43 1.40 1.38 1.35 20.64 -2% 5 to 10 years
1.02 0.95 0.89 0.83 12.67 5% Discount rate
15.0 Terminal multiple
input cells
result cells
PV( %)
Lumen LINK TO FULL ANALYSIS
I am taking the dividends as cash flows because the rest is needed to pay down debt - and paying down over the next
Scenario 1 Cashflow 2020 billions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
normal case 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10
in EUR PV(10%) 1.00 0.91 0.83 0.75 0.68 0.62
INTRINSIC VALUE 11.00
market cap in billions
Scenario 2 Cashflow 2020 billions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
best case 1.10 1.13 1.17 1.20 1.24 1.28 1.30
in EUR PV(10%) 1.03 0.96 0.90 0.85 0.79 0.73
Present value sum 14.63
Scenario 3 Cashflow 2020 billions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
worst case 1.10 1.07 1.03 1.00 0.97 0.94 0.90
in EUR PV(10%) 0.97 0.86 0.75 0.67 0.59 0.51
Present value sum 7.84
Disclaimer: This is just for educational purposes and not for investing advice!
Terminal
Value Growth rate
2027 2028 2029 2030 2030 3% next 5 years
1.33 1.35 1.38 1.41 17.94 2% 5 to 10 years
0.68 0.63 0.59 0.54 6.92 10% Discount rate
13.0 Terminal multiple
Terminal
Value Growth rate
2027 2028 2029 2030 2030 -3% next 5 years
0.85 0.81 0.77 0.73 5.39 -5% 5 to 10 years
0.44 0.38 0.33 0.28 2.08 10% Discount rate
7.0 Terminal multiple
input cells
result cells
PV( %)
AMZN
Scenario 1 Cashflow 2020 billions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
worst case 34.15 39.27 45.16 51.94 59.73 68.69 75.56
in EUR PV(10%) 35.70 37.33 39.02 40.80 42.65 42.65
INTRINSIC VALUE 1571.92
Scenario 2 Cashflow 2020 billions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
best case 34.15 42.69 53.36 66.70 83.37 104.22 125.06
in EUR PV(10%) 38.81 44.10 50.11 56.95 64.71 70.59
Present value sum 4427.23
Scenario 3 Cashflow 2020 billions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
normal case 34.15 42.69 53.36 66.70 83.37 104.22 116.72
in EUR PV(10%) 38.81 44.10 50.11 56.95 64.71 65.89
Present value sum 2809.17
Disclaimer: This is just for educational purposes and not for investing advice!
Terminal
Value Growth rate
2027 2028 2029 2030 2030 25% next 5 years
150.07 180.09 216.11 259.33 9724.75 20% 5 to 10 years
77.01 84.01 91.65 99.98 3749.31 10% Discount rate
45.0 Terminal multiple
Terminal
Value Growth rate
2027 2028 2029 2030 2030 25% next 5 years
130.73 146.42 163.99 183.67 5739.59 12% 5 to 10 years
67.09 68.31 69.55 70.81 2212.86 10% Discount rate
35.0 Terminal multiple
input cells
result cells
PV( %)
AT&T LINK TO AT&T STOCK ANALYSIS
Scenario 1 Cashflow 2020 billions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
worst case 28.00 26.60 25.27 24.01 22.81 21.67 19.50
in EUR PV(10%) 24.18 20.88 18.04 15.58 13.45 11.01
INTRINSIC VALUE 168.84
Scenario 2 Cashflow 2020 billions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
best case 28.00 28.84 29.71 30.60 31.51 32.46 33.11
in EUR PV(10%) 26.22 24.55 22.99 21.52 20.15 18.69
Present value sum 358.80
Scenario 3 Cashflow 2020 billions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
normal case 28.00 28.28 28.56 28.85 29.14 29.43 29.72
in EUR PV(10%) 25.71 23.61 21.67 19.90 18.27 16.78
Present value sum 286.66
Disclaimer: This is just for educational purposes and not for investing advice!
Terminal
Value Growth rate
2027 2028 2029 2030 2030 3% next 5 years
33.77 34.45 35.14 35.84 421.62 2% 5 to 10 years
17.33 16.07 14.90 13.82 162.55 10% Discount rate
12.0 Terminal multiple
Terminal
Value Growth rate
2027 2028 2029 2030 2030 1% next 5 years
30.02 30.32 30.62 30.93 275.61 1% 5 to 10 years
15.40 14.14 12.99 11.92 106.26 10% Discount rate
9.0 Terminal multiple
input cells
result cells
PV( %)