A Theory of Migration

Author(s): Everett S. Lee

Source: Demography , 1966, Vol. 3, No. 1 (1966), pp. 47-57
Published by: Springer on behalf of the Population Association of America

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 A THEORY OF MIGRATION*

EVERETT S. LEE
University of Pennsylvania

RESUMEN

El concepto de migracion abarca una serie de factores sobre lugar de origen y de destin
intervinientes y caracteristicas personales.
Este simple marco de trabajo es empleado con el fin de formular una serie de hipotesis acerca del
volumen de la migracion bajo diversas condiciones, el desarrollo de corrientes y contracorrientes
migratorias y las caracteristicas de los migrantes. Siempre que ha sido posible, las hipotesis se presentan
en forma tal que puedan comprobarse con datos anexos. Para otras hipotesis los datos no son dis-
ponibles actualmente; otras pueden requerir reestructuracion en terminos de datos disponibles.
Las variaciones en el volumen de migracion estan relacionadas con la diversidad de las regiones y
la poblacion que la habita, con el grado de dificultad de los obstdculos intervinientes y con las fluctua-
ciones de la economia.
La relacion entre corrientes y contracorrientes migratorias es analizada en base a la similaridad o
discimilaridad de origen y destino, al tipo de obstaculos intervinientes y a las condiciones economicas.
La migracion es considerada selectiva y el grado de selectividad depende de un nu'mero de factores los
cuales a menudo dan como resultado una seleccion bimodal.

It was a remiark of Farr's to the effect torted that "After carefully reading Mr.
that migration appeared to go on without Ravenstein's formier paper, and listening
any definite law that led Ravenstein to to the present one, [I arrived] at the con-
present his celebrated paper on the laws of clusion that migration was rather distin-
migration before the Royal Statistical So- guished for its lawlessness than for having
ciety on March 17, 1885.1 This paper any definite law."3 Mr. Stephen Bourne's
was based upon the British Census of criticism was less devastating but logically
1881, but in 1889 Ravenstein returned to more serious: "that although Mr. Raven-
the subject with data from more than stein had spoken of 'Laws of Migration,'
twenty countries.2 Finding corroboration he had not formiulated them in such a
for his earlier views in this broader investi- categorical order that they could be criti-
gation, he also entitled his second paper, cized."4 Nevertheless, Ravenstein's pa-
"The Laws of Migration," though he pers have stood the test of time and re-
noted that it was ambitiously headed and main the starting point for work in migra-
warned that "laws of population, and eco- tion theory.
nomic laws generally, have not the rigid- As found in the first paper and extended
ity of physical laws." An irreverent critic, or amended in the second, Ravenstein's
Mr. N. A. Humphreys, immediately re- laws are summarized in his own words be-
low. The first five of these items include
*Presented at the Annual Meeting of the the laws as they are usually quoted, while
Mississippi Valley Historical Association, Kansas
itenms 6 and 7, though taken from the gen-
City, April 23, 1965 ("Population Studies Center
Series in Studies of Human Resources," No. 1). eral conclusions of his second paper, are
This paper has benefited greatly from discussions not ordinarily included. This, however, is
with Professor Surinder K. Mehta. due more to Ravenstein's way of number-
1 E. G. Ravenstein, "The Laws of Migration," ing the laws and to his somnewhat tenta-
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, XLVIII, tive statemnent of the domainance of the
Part 2 (June, 1885), 167-227. Also Reprint No.
economic motive than to his own estimate
S482 in the "Bobbs-Merrill Series in the Social
Sciences."
of the importance of his conclusions.

2 Ravenstein, "The Laws of Migration," Jour- 3 "Discussion on Mr. Ravenstein's Paper,"

nal of the Royal Statistical Society, LII (June, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, LII (June,
1889), 241-301. Also Reprint No. S-483 in the 1889), 302.
"Bobbs-Merrill Series in the Social Sciences." 4Ibid., p. 303.

47

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 48 DEMOGRAPHY

1. Migration and distance.-(a) "[T]he these currents can compare in volume with
great body of our migrants only proceed a that which arises from the desire inherent in
short distance" and "migrants enumerated in most men to 'better' themselves in material
a certain center of absorption will ... grow respects" (II, p. 286).
less [as distance from the center increases]"
This century has brought no compa-
(,pp. :198-99) 5
(b) "Migrants proceeding long distances rable excursion into migration theory.
generally go by preference to one of theWith greatthe development of equilibrium
centers of commerce and industry" (I, p. 199). analysis, economists abandoned the study
2. Migration by stages.-(a) "[T]here takes of population, and most sociologists and
place consequently a universal shifting or historians are reluctant to deal with
displacement of the population, which pro- masses of statistical data. A crew of de-
duces 'currents of migration,' setting in the
mographers has sprung up, but they have
direction of the great centers of commerce and
been largely content with empirical find-
industry which absorb the migrants" (I, p.
ings and unwilling to generalize. Indeed,
198).
(b) "The inhabitants of the country im- Vance, in his presidential address to the
mediately surrounding a town of rapid growth Population Association of America, en-
flock into it; the gaps thus left in the rural titled "Is Theory for Demographers?"
population are filled up by migrants from more contends that demography, for lack of
remote districts, until the attractive force of theory, remains unstructured and raises
one of our rapidly growing cities makes its the question, "Is there room [in demogra-
influence felt, step by step, to the most remote phy] for the bold and audacious?"6
corner of the kingdom" (I, p. 199).
In the three-quarters of a century
(c) "The process of dispersion is the inverse
which have passed, Ravenstein has been
of that of absorption, and exhibits similar
much quoted and occasionally challenged.
features" (I, p. 199).
3. Stream and counterstream.-"Each main But, while there have been literally thou-
current of migration produces a compensating sands of nmigration studies in the mean-
counter-current" (I, p. 199). In modern ter- time, few additional generalizations have
minology, stream and counterstream have been advanced. True, there have been
been substituted for Ravenstein's current and studies of age and migration, sex and mi-
counter-current. gration, race and migration, distance and
4. Urban-rural differences in propensity to migration, education and migration, the
migrate.-"The natives of towns are less mi-
labor force and migration, and so forth;
gratory than those of the rural parts of the
but most studies which focused upon the
country" (I, p. 199).
characteristics of mnigrants have been con-
5. Predominance of females among short-
distance migrants.-"Females appear to pre- ducted with little reference to the volume
dominate among short-journey migrants" (II, of migration, and few studies have consid-
p. 288). ered the reasons for migration or the as-
6. Technology and migration.-"Does mi- similation of the migrant at destination.
gration increase? I believe so! . .. Wherever So little developed was the field in the
I was able to make a comparison I found that 1930's that Dorothy Thomas and her as-
an increase in the means of locomotion and a sociates concluded that the only generali-
development of manufactures and commerce
zation that could be made in regard to dif-
have led to an increase of migration" (II, p.
ferentials in internal migration was that
288).
7. Dominance of the economic motive.-"Bad
migrants tended to be young adults or
or oppressive laws, heavy taxation, an unat- persons in their late teens.7 Later Bogue
tractive climate, uncongenial social surround- 6 Rupert B. Vance, "Is Theory for Demogra-
ings, and even compulsion (slave trade, trans- phers?" Social Forces, XXXI, (October, 1952),
portation), all have produced and are still 9-13.
producing currents of migration, but none of 7 Dorothy Swaine Thomas, Research Memo-
randum on Migration Differentials (New York:
6 In the quotations from Ravenstein, "I" re- Social Science Research Council, Bulletin 43,
fers to the 1885 paper and "II" to the 1889 paper. 1938).

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 A Theory of Migration 49

and Hagood trenchantly summed up the math have not been grouped with the so-
current state of knowledge under the called free migration.
heading "An Approach to a Theory of It is the purpose of this paper to at-
Differential Migration,"8 and Otis Durant tempt the development of a general
Duncan contributed a valuable essay on schema into which a variety of spatial
"The Theory and Consequences of Mo- movements can be placed and, from a
bility of Farm Population,"9 but both small number of what would seem to be
were restricted to the United States and self-evident propositions, to deduce a
both were hampered by a lack of data number of conclusions with regard to the
which has since been partially repaired. volume of migration, the development of
Most essays in migration theory have streams and counterstreams, and the char-
dealt with migration and distance and ad- acteristics of migrants. As a starting point
vance mathematical formulations of the for this analysis, a definition of migration
relationship. Perhaps the best known of is introduced which is considerably more
recent theories of migration is Stouffer's general than that usually applied.
theory of intervening opportunities.'0
Except for Dudley Kirk," Ravenstein DEFINITION OF MIGRATION

seems to have been the last person to Migration is defined broadly as a per-
make a detailed comparison of the volume manent or semipermanent change of resi-
of internal migration or the characteristics dence. No restriction is placed upon the
of migrants within a goodly number of na- distance of the move or upon the volun-
tions. Generally speaking, considerations tary or involuntary nature of the act, and
of internal migration have been divorced no distinction is made between external
from considerations of immigration and and internal migration. Thus, a move
emigration, and very short moves, such as across the hall from one apartment to an-
those within counties in the United States other is counted as just as much an act of
or within Kreise in Germany, have not migration as a move from Bombay, India,
been considered along with the longer dis- to Cedar Rapids, Iowa, though, of course,
tance movement that is labeled migration. the initiation and consequences of such
Also, such forced migration as the refugee moves are vastly different. However, not
movements of World War II and its after- all kinds of spatial mobility are included
in this definition. Excluded, for example,
8 Donald J. Bogue and Margaret Marman
Hagood, Subregional Migration in the United
are the continual movements of nomads
States, 1935-1940, Vol. II: Differential Migration and migratory workers, for whom there is
in the Corn and Cotton Belts (Miami, Ohio: Scripps no long-term residence, and temporary
Foundation Studies in Population Distribution,
moves like those to the mountains for the
No. 6, 1953), pp. 124-27.
summer.
9 Otis Durant Duncan, "The Theory and
Consequences of Mobility of Farm Population,"
No matter how short or how long, how
Oklahoma Agriculture Experiment Station Circular easy or how difficult, every act of migra-
No. 88 (Stillwater, Okla., May, 1940). Reprinted tion involves an origin, a destination, and
in Joseph J. Spengler and Otis Dudley Duncan,
an intervening set of obstacles. Among the
Population Theory and Policy (Glencoe, Ill.: Free
Press, 1956), pp. 417-34. set of intervening obstacles, we include
the distance of the move as one that is
10 Samuel A. Stouffer, "Intervening Opportu-
nities: A Theory Relating Mobility and Dis- always present.
tance," American Sociological Review, V (De-
cember, 1940), 845-67, and "Intervening Op- FACTORS IN THE ACT OF MIGRATION
portunities and Competing Migrants," Journal
of Regional Science, II (1960), 1-26.
The factors which enter into the deci-
sion to migrate and the process of migra-
11 Dudley Kirk, Europe's Population in the
Interwar Years (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton Uni-
tion may be summarized under four head-
versity Press, 1946). ings, as follows:

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50 DEMOGRAPHY

1. Factors associated with the area of ori- at origin and destination. Indeed, since we
gin. can never specify the exact set of factors
2. Factors associated with the area of des- which impels of prohibits migration for a
tination.
given person, we can, in general, only set
3. Intervening obstacles.
forth a few which seem of special imipor-
4. Personal factors.
tance and note the general or average re-
The first three of these are indicated action of a considerable group. Needless
schematically in Chart 1. In every area to say, the factors that hold and attract or
there are countless factors which act to repel people are precisely understood
hold people within the area or attract neither by the social scientist nor the per-
people to it, and there are others which sons directly affected. Like Bentham's
tend to repel them. These are shown in thecalculus of pleasure and pain, the calculus
diagram as + and - signs. There are of +'s and -'s at origin and destination
others, shown as O's, to which people are is always inexact.
essentially indifferent. Some of these fac- There are, however, important differ-
tors affect most people in much the same ences between the factors associated with
way, while others affect different people inthe area of origin and those associated
different ways. Thus a good climate is at- with the area of destination. Persons liv-
tractive and a bad climate is repulsive to ing in an area have an immediate and
nearly everyone; but a good school sys- often long-term acquaintance with the
temn may be counted as a + by a parent area and are usually able to make consid-
with young children and a - by a house-
ered and unhurried judgments regarding
owner with no children because of the high
them. This is not necessarily true of the
real estate taxes engendered, while an
factors associated with the area of destina-
unmarried nmale without taxable property
tion. Knowledge of the area of destination
is indifferent to the situation.
is seldom exact, and indeed some of the
Clearly the set of +'s and -'s at both
origin and destination is differently de- advantages and disadvantages of an area
fined for every nmigrant or prospective mi-can only be perceived by living there.
grant. Nevertheless, we may distinguish Thus there is always an element of ig-
classes of people who react in similar norance or even mystery about the area of
destination, and there must always be
fashion to the same general sets of factors

CHART I

ORIGIN AND DESTINATION FACTORS AND INTERVENING

OBSTACLES IN MIGRATION

0 + +? +--AX A /a (?+?
\ ~~~~Intervening obstacles \ /++
Origin Destination

see text for explanatio__

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 A Theory of Migration 51

some uncertainty with regard to the re- Finally, there are many personal fac-
ception of a migrant in a new area. tors which affect individual thresholds
Another important difference between and facilitate or retard migration. Some of
the factors associated with area of origin these are more or less constant throughout
and area of destination is related to stages the life of the individual, while others are
of the life cycle. For many migrants the associated with stages in the life cycle and
area of origin is that in which the forma- in particular with the sharp breaks that
tive years have been spent and for which denote passage from one stage to another.
the general good health of youth and the In this connection, we must note that it
absence of annoying responsibilities create is not so much the actual factors at origin
in retrospect an overevaluation of the and destination as the perception of these
positive elements in the environment and factors which results in migration. Per-
an underevaluation of the negative ele- sonal sensitivities, intelligence, and aware-
ments. On the other hand, the difficulties ness of conditions elsewhere enter into the
associated with assimilation in a new en- evaluation of the situation at origin, and
vironment may create in the newly ar- knowledge of the situation at destination
rived a contrary but equally erroneous depends upon personal contacts or upon
evaluation of the positive and negative sources of information which are not uni-
factors at destination. versally available. In addition, there are
While migration may result from a personalities which are resistant to change
comparison of factors at origin and des- -change of residence as well as other
tination, a simple calculus of +'s and -'s changes-and there are personalities which
does not decide the act of migration. The welcome change for the sake of change.
balance in favor of the move must be For some individuals, there must be com-
enough to overcome the natural inertia pelling reasons for migration, while for
which always exists. Furthermore, be- others little provocation or promise suf-
tween every two points there stands a set fices.
of intervening obstacles which may be The decision to migrate, therefore, is
slight in some instances and insurmount- never completely rational, and for some
able in others. The most studied of these persons the rational component is much
obstacles is distance, which, while omni- less than the irrational. We must expect,
present, is by no means the most impor- therefore, to find many exceptions to our
tant. Actual physical barriers like the generalizations since transient emotions,
Berlin Wall may be interposed, or immi- mental disorder, and accidental occur-
gration laws may restrict the movement. rences account for a considerable propor-
Different people are, of course, affected in tion of the total migrations.
different ways by the same set of ob- Indeed, not all persons who migrate
stacles. What may be trivial to some reach that decision themselves. Children
people-the cost of transporting house- are carried along by their parents, willy-
hold goods, for example-may be pro- nilly, and wives accompany their hus-
hibitive to others. bands though it tears them away from en-
The effect of a given set of obstacles de- vironments they love. There are clearly
pends also upon the impedimenta with stages in the life cycle in which the posi-
which the migrant is encumbered. For tive elements at origin are overwhelm-
some migrants these are relatively unim- ingly important in limiting migration, and
portant and the difficulty of surmounting there are times in which such bonds are
the intervening obstacles is consequently slackened with catastrophic suddenness.
minimal; but for others, making the same Children are bound to the familial resi-
move, the impedimenta, among which we dence by the need for care and subsist-
must reckon children and other depend- ence, but, as one grows older, ages are
ents, greatly increase the difficulties posedreached at which it is customary to cease
by intervening obstacles. one stage of development and begin an-

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52 DEMOGRAPHY

other. Such times are the cessation of edu- great attractions spring up suddenly, as,
cation, entrance into the labor force, or for example, the discovery of gold in Cali-
retirement from work. Marriage, too, con- fornia, of silver in Colorado, and the open-
stitutes such a change in the life cycle, as ing up of Indian Territory for white settle-
does the dissolution of marriage, either ment. The servicing of such a movement,
through divorce or the death of a spouse. in terms of providing transportation, pro-
Many more or less random occurrences tection, supplies, and the niceties as well as
can also greatly reduce the hold of an area the necessities of life, creates highly spe-
upon a person and increase the attractive- cialized but often very lucrative oppor-
ness of other areas. Victims of injustice as tunities. Thus, pioneers and settlers are
well as the perpetrators of crime may be accompanied by soldiers and merchants
forced to leave the area in which they are and ladies of fortune, who indeed may
living. These and other events which af- push ahead of the wave of settlement to
fect but a few persons in the total com- establish outposts and nodal points.
munity may nevertheless bulk large in the The end of the period of settlement does
motivation of the migrant group. not necessarily imply a decrease in areal
This conceptualization of mnigration as diversity. On the contrary, the industriali-
involving a set of factors at origin and des- zation, which has traditionally followed
tination, a set of intervening obstacles, settlement, is a great creator of areal di-
and a series of personal factors is a simple versity. In a dynanmic economy, new op-
one which may perhaps be accepted as portunities are continually created in
self-evident. It is now argued that, simple places to which workers must be drawn,
though this is, it provides a framework for and old enterprises are ruthlessly aban-
much of what we know about migration doned when they are no longer profitable.
and indicates a number of fields for inves- 2. The volume of migration varies with
tigation. It is used below to formulate a the diversity of people.-The diversity of
series of hypotheses about the volume of people also affects the volume of migra-
migration under varying conditions, the tion. Where there is a great sameness
development of stream and counter- among people-whether in terms of race
stream, and the characteristics of mi- or ethnic origin, of education, of income,
grants. or tradition-we may expect a lesser rate
of migration than where there is great di-
VOLUME OF MIGRATION
versity. A diversity of people implies the
1. The volume of migration within a existence of groups that are specially
given territory varies with the degree of di- fitted for given pursuits. Thus, we find
versity of areas included in that territory.- throughout northern Europe, where land
If migration, as we have assumed, results has been reclaimed from the sea or marshes
in part from a consideration of positive drained, villages which still bear the
and negative factors at origin and destina- stamps of their Dutch origin. The settle-
tion, then a high degree of diversity ment of the American West would have
among areas should result in high levels beenof more difficult had it not been for the
migration. These we find in countries Jewish merchant who came with or even
which are being opened up for settlement, preceded the rush of migrants, and the
as was the United States in the nineteenth conditions which attended Irish and Chi-
century, eastern Europe during the nese immigration made them especially
twelfth and thirteenth centuries, and Si- responsive to the demands for railroad la-
beria in the twentieth century. Under borers. Indeed, it is a common finding
such conditions, opportunities arise which that immigrant groups specialize in par-
are sufficient to attract to them persons ticular occupations and become scattered
whose dissatisfaction with their places of throughout the country wherever the need
origin is little more than minimal. Very for such work is found. Thus, Chinese

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 A Theory of Migration 53

laundry operators and Greek restaurant fluctuations in the economy.-Business

owners in the United States had their cycles affect the volume of migration in
counterparts in the widely spread German many ways, but a crucial consideration is
and Jewish craftsmen of eastern Europe. the manner in which they affect the com-
A diversity of people inevitably implies parison of positive and negative factors at
that the social statuses of some groups will origin and destination. During periods of
become elevated above those of others. economic expansion, new businesses and
Discrimination among racial or ethnic industries are created at a rapid rate, and
groups is the rule rather than the excep- old industries begin to recruit workmen
tion, and the degree of discrimination from afar. Such opportunities, however,
varies from place to place, often in as ex- are by no means evenly spread, and parts
treme a manner as in the United States. of the country remain in a state of relative
Though discrimination leads to the estab- stagnation. The contrast between the pos-
lishment of ghettos, it also operates to itive factors at origin and destination is
bring about vast movements of people therefore heightened, and the negative
from one area to another-witness the re- factors at origin seem more distressing.
cent migration of the American Negro. During depressions, however, some of the
Ethnic diversity may disappear as mi- newly created businesses fail and others
norities become assimilated, but a major cease to expand. A leveling of opportuni-
aim of modern civilization is to inaugurate ties occurs, and sheer familiarity with the
other kinds of diversity among people. place of residence (which in itself consti-
The aim of prolonged education is to cre- tutes an element of safety) militates
ate specialists, for many of whom the de- against moving to places where positive
mand is small in any one place but wide- factors no longer so heavily outweigh
spread. For them migration is a con- those at home. Many tests of this hypoth-
comitant of their vocations. Thus, en- esis have been made, but among them the
gineers and professors have become peri- most revealing and confirming are the
patetic, but so have business executives studies of Jerome in relation to immigra-
and actors. tion to the United States'2 and of Thomas
3. The volume of migration is related to in relation to migration within the United
the difficulty of surmounting the intervening States.-3
obstacles.-This hypothesis hardly needs 5. Unless severe checks are imposed, both
elaboration. One of the most important volume and rate of migration tend to increase
considerations in the decision to migrate with time.-The volume of migration
is the difficulty of the intervening ob- tends to increase with time for a number
stacles. To tunnel under the Berlin Wall is of reasons, among them increasing diver-
a hazardous task not to be undertaken sity of areas, increasing diversity of
lightly; nor was sea passage to the Amer- people, and the diminution of intervening
icas in the seventeenth and eighteenth obstacles. As indicated above, industriali-
centuries. The removal of immigration re- zation and Westernization, the explicit or
strictions within the Common Market implicit goals of most countries, increase
countries has been accompanied by large the diversity of areas. It is also true that
migrations of workers from one of these in both developed and developing coun-
countries to another. There are many 1211arry Jerome, Migration and Business Cy-
other instances in history where the re- cles (New York: National Bureau of Economic
moval of obstacles has set in motion large Research Inc., 1926).
flows of migrants, and others in which the isHope T. Eldridge and Dorothy Swaine
imposition of new obstacles or the height- Thomas, Population Redistribution and Economic
Growth, United States, 1870-1950, Vol. III:
ening of old ones has brought about the
Demographic Analyses and Interrelations (Phila-
sharp diminution of a long continued flow. delphia: American Philosophical Society, 1964),
4. The volume of migration varies with 321 ff.

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54 DEMOGRAPHY

tries the differences between areas, both with the state of progress in a country or
in ternms of economics and of amenities, area.-As Ravenstein remarked, "Migra-
beconme heightened. On an international tion means life and progress; a sedentary
scale, the economic differences between population stagnation."114 The reasons
advanced and backward countries are in- why this is true are similar to those ad-
creasing rather than diminishing, and vanced above under item 5. In an eco-
within all countries the differences be- nomically progressive country, the differ-
tween agricultural and urban areas are ences among areas are accentuated by in-
becoming more pronounced. dustrial development and the differences
Other factors which tend to bring about among people by education. At the same
an increase in the volume of migration are time, intervening obstacles to migration
both the increasing differences amnong within the country are lessened by im-
people and the view taken of these differ- proving technology and by political de-
ences. In a primitive or agricultural so- sign.
ciety, specialization is limited and the de- We should, therefore, expect to find
velopmnent of differences among people heavy immuigration to developed coun-
tends to be discouraged. In an advancing tries where this is permitted and within
society, however, specializations multiply, such countries a high rate of internal mi-
and there is an increased realization of gration. On the other hand, in the least
both the existence and the need for special developed countries we should find a
aptitudes or training. Thus, even in an largely immobile population which usually
agricultural area children are trained for changes residence only under duress and
urban pursuits, and an increased variety then en nmasse rather than through indi-
of developed aptitudes renders the popu- vidual action. In the United States, eco-
lation more susceptible to the appeal of nomically the most advanced of nations,
highly special positive factors in scattered rates of migration are unbelievably high,
places. one in five persons changing his residence
Increasing technology plays an impor- each year. In other economically ad-
tant role in dimainishing intervening ob- vanced countries, like Sweden, Canada,
stacles. Communication becomnes easier, or West Germany, we find this repeated at
and transportation relative to average in- a somewhat lower level. We may argue
come becomes cheaper. Even if there were that a high rate of progress entails a popu-
no change in the balance of factors at lation which is continually in a state of
origin and destination, improving tech- flux, responding quickly to new oppor-
nology alone should result in an increase tunities and reacting swiftly to diminish-
in the volumne of nmigration. ing opportunities.
Also operating to increase migration is
muigration itself. A person who has once STREAM AND COUNTERSTREAM

nmigrated and who has once broken the 1. Migration tends to take place largely
bonds which tie himn to the place in whichwithin well defined streams.-It is a com-
he has spent his childhood is more likely mon observation that migrants proceed
to migrate again than is the person who along well defined routes toward highly
has never previously migrated. Further- specific destinations. This is true in part
more, succeeding migration lowers inertia because opportunities tend to be highly lo-
even mnore. Once a set of intervening ob- calized and in part because migrants must
stacles has been overcome, other sets do usually follow established routes of trans-
not seem so form-idable, and there is an portation. Perhaps just as important is
increasing ability to evaluate the positive the flow of knowledge back from destina-
and negative factors at origin and destina- 14 Ravenstein, "The Laws of Migration,"
tion. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, LII (June,
6. The volume and rate of migration vary 1889), 288.

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 A Theory of Migration 55

tion to origin and, indeed, the actual re- counterstream develops.-A counterstream
cruitment of migrants at the place of ori- is established for several reasons. One is
gin. The overcoming of a set of interven- that positive factors at origin may disap-
ing obstacles by early migrants lessens the pear, or be muted, as during a depression,
or there may be a re-evaluation of the bal-
difficulty of the passage for later migrants,
and in effect pathways are created which ance of positive and negative factors at
pass over intervening opportunities as origin and destination. The very existence
elevated highways pass over the country- of a migration stream creates contacts be-
side. tween origin and destination, and the ac-
Thus the process of settlement tends to quisition of new attributes at destination,
be a leapfrogging operation in which mili- be they skills or wealth, often makes it
tary outposts or trading centers beconme possible to return to the origin on advan-
the focus of migration streams and the tageous terms. Migrants become aware of
filling-up of the passed over territory is opportunities at origin which were not
left to a later stage of developmnent. From previously exploited, or they may use
this point of view, the real frontiersmen their contacts in the new area to set up
are not the farmers but the merchants, thebusinesses in the old. Accomapanying the
missionaries, and the military. It was in returning migrants will be their children
this fashion that German colonization born at destination, and along with them
east of the Elbe was accomplished, and it will be people indigenous to the area of
was in this fashion that the American destination who have become aware of
West was won. opportunities or amenities at the place of
In many cases, large movements take origin through streanmn migrants. Further-
on the form of streams which are highly more, not all persons who migrate intend
specific both in origin and destination. to remain indefinitely at the place of des-
For example, Italians from Sicily and tination. For example, many Italian im-
southern Italy migrated chiefly to the migrants to the United States intended to
United States and within the United stay only long enough to make enough
States to a few northern cities, while high nmoney to be comnfortable in Italy.
proportions of their countrymen from 3. The efficiency of the stream (ratio of
Lombardy and Tuscany went to South stream to counterstream or the net redistribu-
America and, in particular, to Buenos tion of population effected by the opposite
Aires. There are many examples of even flows) is high if the major factors in the de-
more specific streams. Goldstein has velopment of a migration stream were minus
noted that high proportions of Negroes factors at origin.-Again, this point is so
resident in Norristown, Pennsylvania, in obvious that it hardly needs elaboration.
1950 had come from Saluda, South Caro- Few of the Irish who fled faamine condi-
lina, where a small contingent of Negroes tions returned to Ireland, and few Ameri-
had been recruited by the Pennsylvania can Negroes return to the South.
Railroad as laborers and sent to Norris- 4. The efficiency of stream and counter-
town during World War I.15 At the presentstream tends to be low if origin and destina-
time, a small stream of miners is proceed- tion are similar.-In this case, persons
ing from Appalachia to copper-mining mnoving in opposing flows move largely for
centers in the West, and this movement the same reasons and in effect cancel each
has been paralleled in the past by the other out.
movement of British mechanics to New 5. The efficiency of migration streams
England and British potters to Ohio. will be high if the intervening obstacles are
2. For every major migration stream, a great.-Migrants who overcome a consid-
erable set of intervening obstacles do so
1G Sidney Goldstein, Patterns of Mobility, 1910-
1950: The Norristown Study (Philadelphia: Uni-
for compelling reasons, and such migra-
versity of Pennsylvania Press, 1958), p. 38. tions are not undertaken lightly. To some

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56 DEMOGRAPHY

degree, the set of obstacles in stream and they perceive opportunities from afar and
counterstream is the same, and return mi- they can weigh the advantages and dis-
grants are faced with the necessity of advantages at origin and destination. For
twice negotiating a nearly overwhelming example, highly educated persons who are
set of obstacles. For example, migrants already comfortably situated frequently
from Pennsylvania to California are de- migrate because they receive better offers
terred from returning by the very ex- elsewhere. Professional and managerial
pense of the journey. people are also highly mobile, and often
6. The efficiency of a migration stream because migration means advancement.
varies with economic conditions, being high 3. Migrants responding primarily to
in prosperous times and low in times of de- minus factors at origin tend to be negatively
pression.-During boom times the usual selected; or, where the minus factors are
areas of destination, that is, the great cen- overwhelming to entire population groups,
ters of commerce and industry, expand they may not be selected at all.-Examples
rapidly, and relatively few persons, either of the latter are political expulsions like
return migrants or others, make the coun- that of the Germans from Poland and
termove. In times of depression, however, East Prussia or the Irish flight which fol-
many migrants return to the area of ori- lowed the failure of the potato crop. On
gin, and others move toward the compara- the whole, however, factors at origin oper-
tively "safer" nonindustrialized areas. In ate most stringently against persons who
extreme instances stream and counter- in some way have failed economically or
stream may be reversed, as was the case socially. Though there are conditions in
with movement to and from rural areas many places which push out the unortho-
during the worst years of the Great De- dox and the highly creative, it is more
pression. More recently, the mild reces- likely to be the uneducated or the dis-
sion in 1949 seems to have reversed the turbed who are forced to migrate.
usual net flow from Oklahoma to Cali- 4. Taking all migrants together, selection
fornia. tends to be bimodal.-For any given origin,
some of the migrants who leave are re-
CHARACTERISTICS OF MIGRANTS
sponding primarily to plus factors at des-
1. Migration is selective.-This simply tination and therefore tend to be posi-
states that migrants are not a random tively selected, while others are respond-
sample of the population at origin. The ing to minus factors and therefore tend to
reason why migration is selective is that be negatively selected. Therefore, if we
persons respond differently to the sets of plot characteristics of total migrants
plus and minus factors at origin and at along a continuum ranging from poor to
destination, have different abilities to excellent, we often get a J-shaped or U-
overcome the intervening sets of obstacles,shaped curve. Such curves are found, for
and differ from each other in terms of example, where the characteristic is either
the personal factors discussed above. It occupational class or education.
would seem impossible, therefore, for mi- 5. The degree of positive selection in-
gration not to be selective. The kind of creases with the difficulty of the intervening
selection, however, varies, being positive obstacles.-Even though selection is nega-
in some streams and negative in others. tive or random at origin, intervening ob-
By positive selection is meant selection stacles serve to weed out some of the
for migrants of high quality and by nega-weak or the incapable. Thus, the rigors of
tive selection the reverse. the voyage to America in the seventeenth
2. Migrants responding primarily to and eighteenth centuries eliminated many
of the weak, and the same kind of selec-
plus factors at destination tend to be posi-
tively selected.-These persons are under tion is apparent among the German refu-
no necessity to migrate but do so because gees from eastern Europe during and after

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 A Theory of Migration 57

World War II. It is also commonly noted tween that of the population at origin and
that as distance of migration increases, the population at destination, and the ed-
the migrants become an increasingly su- ucation of migrants from rural areas,
perior group. At the other extreme, we while greater than that of nonmigrants at
have the milling-around in restricted origin, is less than that of the population
areas of persons who, by any definition, at destination. Thus, we have one of the
are less capable; for example, uneducated paradoxes of migration in that the move-
slum dwellers often move round and ment of people may tend to lower the
round within a few-block radius. Such quality of population, as expressed in
short distance movements were also char- terms of some particular characteristic, at
acteristic of sharecroppers in the pre- both origin and destination.
World War II days in the United States.
SUMMARY
6. The heightened propensity to migrate
at certain stages of the life cycle is important In summary, a simple schema for mi-
in the selection of migrants.-To some de- gration has been elaborated, and from it
gree, migration is a part of the rites de pas- certain hypotheses in regard to volume of
sage. Thus, persons who enter the labor migration, the establishment of stream
force or get married tend to migrate from and counterstream, and the characteris-
their parental home, while persons who tics of migrants have been formulated.
are divorced or widowed also tend to move The aim has been the construction of a
away. Since some of these events happen related set of hypotheses within a general
at quite well defined ages, they are impor- framework, and work is proceeding to-
tant in shaping the curve of age selection. ward further development in regard to the
They are also important in establishing assimilation of migrants and in regard to
other types of selection-marital status or the effect upon gaining and losing areas.
size of family, for example. Where possible, the hypotheses have
7. The characteristics of migrants tend to been put in such form that they are im-
be intermediate between the characteristics of mediately testable with current data. For
the population at origin and the population others the necessary data are not now
at destination.-Persons with different available, and others require restatement
characteristics react differently to the in terms of available data. It is to be ex-
bal-
ance of plus and minus factors at origin pected that many exceptions will be
and destination. Even before they leave, found, since migration is a complex phe-
nomenon and the often necessary sim-
migrants tend to have taken on some of
plifying condition-all other things being
the characteristics of the population at
equal-is impossible to realize. Neverthe-
destination, but they can never com-
less, from what is now known about mi-
pletely lose some which they share with
gration, encouraging agreement is found
the population at origin. It is because they
with the theory outlined in this paper.
are already to some degree like the popu- Full testing depends, of course, upon the
lation at destination that they find certain amassing of materials from different cul-
positive factors there, and it is because tures. Fortunately, recognition of the im-
they are unlike the population at origin portance of internal migration in social
that certain minus factors there warrant and economic development has spurred
migration. Many studies have shown this research, and more and more countries
intermediate relationship. The fertility of publish detailed migration data from their
migrants, for example, tends to fall be- censuses or population registers.

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