Pre-Reading For TSG 2019-1
Pre-Reading For TSG 2019-1
Pre-Reading For TSG 2019-1
Andrew S. Winston
May 07, 2019
https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/the-world-in-2030-nine-megatrends-to-watch/
Demographics: There will be about 1 billion more of us, and we will live longer. The world should
reach 8.5 billion people by 2030, up from 7.3 billion in 2015. The fastest growing demographic will
be the elderly, with the population of people over 65 years old at 1 billion by 2030. Most of those
new billion will be in the middle class economically, as the percentage of citizens in dire poverty
continues to drop (a rare sustainability win). Even as the middle swells, however, the percentage of
all new wealth accruing to the very top of the pyramid will continue to be a major, and
destabilizing, issue. That said, the other megatrends, especially climate change, could slow or
change the outcomes here.
Urbanization: Two-thirds of us will live in cities. The urbanization of our populations will increase,
creating more megacities as well as small- and medium-size metropolises. Countervailing forces will
include a rising cost of living in the most desirable cities. The effects will include the need for more
big buildings with better management technologies (big data and AI that makes buildings much
more efficient), and we will need more food moved in from where we grow it to where we eat it —
or rapidly expand urban agriculture.
Transparency: Our world will become even more open — and less private. It’s hard to imagine
that the trend to track everything will be going anywhere but in one direction: a radically more
open world. The amount of information collected on every person, product, and organization will
grow exponentially, and the pressure to share that information — with customers and consumers
in particular — will expand. The tools to analyze information will be well-developed and will make
some decision-making easier; for instance, it will be easier to choose products with the lowest
carbon footprints, highest wages for employees, and fewest toxic ingredients. But all these tools
will shatter privacy in the process.
Climate Crisis: The climate will continue to change quickly and feature regular, extreme weather
everywhere. Yes, there’s still uncertainty about how everything will play out exactly, but not about
whether the climate is changing dramatically and dangerously. Significant inertia in both
atmospheric and economic/human systems allows for a more confident prediction of what will
happen in just 11 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made clearhow
critical it is to radically alter the path of carbon emissions to hold the world to 1.5 degrees Celsius of
warming. But that’s not likely to happen with current levels of commitment in global governments:
The important Paris climate accord of 2015, in theory, agrees to hold warming to 2 degrees Celsius.
But in practice, what countries have committed to so far will only hold us to no more than 3
degrees of warming. By 2030, we are very likely to already be at or approaching the 1.5 mark.
The results of climate change will be unrelenting. Many highly populated coastal areas will be in
consistent trouble, as sea levels rise. The natural world will be much less rich, with drastic to
catastrophic declines in populations of many species and major to total losses of ecosystems like
coral. Droughts and floods will stress global breadbasket regions and shift where we grow major
crops. The Arctic will be ice-free in the summer (this will allow ships to move freely in this region,
which is technically good for shorter supply chains but a Pyrrhic victory at best). Between seas,
heat, and shifts in water availability, mass migrations will likely have begun. By 2030, we will have
much better clarity on how bad the coming decades after that point will be. We will know whether
the melting of the major ice sheets will be literally inundating most coastal cities, and if we’re truly
approaching an “Uninhabitable Earth” in our lifetimes.
Resource Pressures: We will be forced to more aggressively confront resource constraints.To keep
volumes of major commodities (such as metals) in line with economic growth, we will need to more
quickly embrace circular models: sourcing much less from virgin materials, using recycled content
and remanufactured products, and generally rethinking the material economy. Water will be a
stressed resource, and it seems likely that many cities will be constantly in a state of water
shortage. We will need more investment in water tech and desalination to help.
Clean Tech: The transformation of our grid, our roadways, and our buildings to zero-carbon
technology will be surprisingly far along. Here’s some good news: Due to continuing drops in the
cost of clean technologies, renewable energy is dramatically on the rise, making up more than half
the global new power capacity every year since 2015. By 2030, effectively no new additions of
generating capacity will come from fossil-fuel-based technologies. Electric vehicles will be a large
part of the transportation equation: While estimates about the share of EVs on the road by 2030
range from the teens to nearly 100% (assuming early retirement of internal combustion engines),
nearly all sales of new vehicles will be EVs. This will be driven by dramatic reductions in the cost of
batteries and strict legislation banning fossil-fuel engines. We will also see an explosion of data-
driven technologies that make buildings, the grid, roadways, and water systems substantially more
efficient.
Technology Shifts: The internet of things will have won the day, and every new device will be
connected. Proponents of the “singularity” have long projected that by around 2030, affordable AI
will achieve human levels of intelligence. AI and machine learning will plan much of our lives and
make us more efficient, well beyond choosing driving routes to optimize traffic. Technology will
manipulate us even more than it does today — Russian interference in U.S. elections may look
quaint. AI will create some new kinds of jobs but will also nearly eliminate entire segments of work,
from truck and taxi drivers to some high-skill jobs such as paralegals and engineers.
Global Policy: There’s an open question about how we’ll get important things done. I’m thinking
specifically about whether global governments and institutions will be working in sync to
aggressively fight climate change and resource pressures, and tackle vast inequality and poverty —
or whether it will be every region and ethnic group for itself. Predicting politics is nearly impossible,
and it’s hard to imagine how global policy action on climate and other megatrends will play out.
The Paris Agreement was a monumental start, but countries, most notably the U.S., have lately
retreated from global cooperation in general. Trade wars and tariffs are all the rage in 2019. It
seems likely that, even more than today, it will be up to business to play a major role in driving
sustainability.
Populism: The rise of nationalism and radicalism may increase … or it won’t. Even less certain
than policy is the support, or lack thereof, of the mass of people for different philosophies of
governing. In recent years, populists have been elected or consolidated power in countries as
varied as the U.S., Brazil, and Hungary. And yet, in recent weeks, citizens in countries like Turkey,
Algeria, and Sudan have pushed back on autocracy. Will that trend continue?
How Should Business Prepare?
Laying out strategies for companies to navigate this likely future world is a book-length
conversation. But let me suggest a few themes of action to consider:
Engage everyone in the sphere of the business world on climate. A dangerously changing climate
is the biggest threat humanity has ever faced. But it’s not all set in stone … yet. Companies have an
economic incentive and moral responsibility to work hard to reduce the damage as much as
possible. Engage employees (stamp out climate denial), talk to consumers and customers about
climate issues through your products, and change internal rules on corporate finance to make
investment decisions with flexible hurdle rates that favor pro-climate spending. Most importantly,
use influence and lobbying power to demand, at all levels of government, an escalating public price
on carbon — and publicly admonish industry lobbying groups that don’t.
Consider the human aspect of business more. As new technologies sweep through society and
business, the change will be jarring. Those changes and pressures are part of why people are
turning to populist leaders who promise solutions. Business leaders should think through what
these big shifts mean for the people that make up our companies, value chains, and communities.
Embrace transparency. To be blunt, you don’t have a choice. Each successive generation will expect
more openness from the companies they buy from and work for.
Listen to the next generation. By 2030, the leading edge of millennials will be nearing 50, and they
and Gen Z will make up the vast majority of the workforce. Listen to them now about their priorities
and values.
Predicting the future means projecting forward from what’s already happening, while throwing in
expected inertia in human and natural systems. It can give us an impressionistic picture of the
world of the future. Our choices matter a great deal, as individuals and through our organizations
and institutions. Business, in particular, will play a large role in where the world goes. Employees,
customers, and even investors increasingly demand that the role of business be a positive one.
Look, we could all just wait and see where these historic waves take us. But I prefer that we all work
proactively to ensure that a better, thriving future is the one we choose.
INDONESIA
LEMBAR FAKTA SDGs SDGs FACTSHEETS
INDONESIA
LEMBAR FAKTA SDGs
INDONESIA
PERLINDUNGAN SOSIAL
27,76 juta
Cakupan JKN melalui Kartu Indonesia
Sehat (KIS) meningkat dari 113,4 juta
penduduk Indonesia penduduk (2014) menjdi 171,9 juta
penduduk (2016)
masih hidup di bawah (Sumber: BPJS Kesehatan)
INDONESIA
SOCIAL WELFARE
INDONESIA
(Sumber: BPS)
SDGs FACTSHEET
INDONESIA
HUNGER
Severe
Severe
Underweight
18.4% to 19.6%
Underweight
13% 13.9%
Mild underweight Mild underweight
End hunger, achieve food
(Source: Basic Health Research) 2007 2013
security and improved
nutrition and promote
sustainable agriculture The prevalence of stunting in The prevalence of wasting in
kg < cm
children under-five increased children under-five decreased
from 35.6% (2010) to 37.2% from 13.6% (2007) to 12.1%
(2013) (2013)
(Source: Basic Health Research) (Source: Basic Health Research)
INDONESIA
TUJUAN 3
Pada periode 1991-2015, Angka Kematian
Bayi (AKB) turun dari 68 per 1000
Pada periode 1991-2015, kelahiran hidup menjadi 23 per
KEHIDUPAN
Angka Kematian Ibu (AKI) 1000 kelahiran hidup
menurun dari 390 per (Sumber: SDKI 1991, SUPAS 2015)
SEJAHTERA
meningkat menjadi 80,7% (2016) dari
(Sumber: SDKI 1991, SUPAS 2015) 71,2% (2013)
(Sumber: Kementerian Kesehatan)
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) terus Unmet need pelayanan kesehatan terus Persentase ketersediaan obat dan vaksin di
mengalami penurunan sejak 1991, menurun dari 9,9% (2006) menjadi puskesmas terus meningkat dari 75,5%
namun stagnan pada 2007-2012 4,3% (2016) (2014) menjadi 79,4% (2015) dan 81,57%
(2016)
(Sumber: SDKI) (Sumber: Susenas) (Sumber: Sirkesnas)
SDGs FACTSHEET
INDONESIA
GOAL 3
In the period of 1991-2015, the
infant mortality rate reduced
From 1991 to 2015, from 68 per 1,000 live births
to 23 per 1,000 live births
GOOD HEALTH
Maternal Mortality Rate
(MMR) declined from (Source: IDHS 1991, Inter-census Population
WELL-BEING
for infants increased from 71.2% (2013)
(Source: IDHS 1991, Inter-census Population Survey 2015) to 80.7% (2016)
(Source: Ministry of Health)
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has continued The percentage of medicines and vaccines
to decline since 1991, but stagnated in Unmet need of health services has availability at the community health center
2007-2012 continued to decline from 9.9% (2006) (Puskesmas) has continued to increase from
to 4.3% (2016). 75.5% (2014) to 79.4% (2015) and 81.57%
(2016)
(Source: IDHS) (Source: National Socio-Economic Survey)
(Source: National Health Indicator Survey)
LEMBAR FAKTA SDGs
INDONESIA
INDONESIA
INDONESIA
TUJUAN 5
KESETARAAN
GENDER
Mencapai kesetaraan
gender dan
memberdayakan kaum Pada tahun 2014, proporsi Usia nikah
perempuan
perempuan di lembaga Kekerasan terhadap Proporsi perempuan umur 20-24
legislatif tingkat pusat
sebesar 17,32% perempuan tahun yang berstatus kawin
atau hidup bersama:
Sekitar 2 dari 5 (41,7 %) a. sebelum umur 18 tahun = 22,4%
(Sumber: BPS)
perempuan umur 15-64 tahun b. sebelum umur 15 tahun = 1,1%
mengalami sedikitnya 1 dari 4
jenis kekerasan (fisik, seksual,
emosional, ekonomi) selama (Sumber: Susenas 2016)
hidupnya
Sekitar 1 dari 3
perempuan (15-64 tahun)
pernah mengalami kekerasan
fisik dan/atau seksual oleh
pasangan dan selain pasangan
selama hidupnya;
INDONESIA
GOAL 5
GENDER
EQUALITY
Achieve gender equality
and empower all women
and girls Married Age
In 2014, the proportion of seat Violence against The proportion of women aged
held by women in national
parliament was 17.32% women 20-24 years who were married for
the first time or living together
About 2 of 5 (41.7%) of women without married status:
(Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia)
aged 15-64 years experienced at
least 1 of 4 types of violence A. Before the age of 18 years =
(physical, sexual, emotional, 22.4%
economic) during their lifetime B. Before the age of 15 years = 1.1%
About 1 of 3 women (aged 15-64 (Source: National Socio-Economic Survey 2016)
years) experienced physical and
/ or sexual abuse by a spouse
and other than a spouse during
their lifetime;
INDONESIA
1.372 unit
dam pengendali jurang;
Perkotaan
76,36% 3.988 unit
dam penahan;
8.781 unit
sumur resapan;
INDONESIA
GOAL 6 By 2015,
about 70.97% of households
in Indonesia already have
SANITATION Urban
81.30%
Rural
60.58%
(Source: BPS - Statistics Indonesia) (Source: Indonesia Health Statistic 2013)
Ensure availability and
sustainable management of
By 2015,
water and sanitation for all
about 62.14% of households in
From 2011 to 2015,
Indonesia have improved the following have been built:
sanitation
244 units
check dam;
1,372 units
gully plug;
Urban
76.36% 3,988 units
gabion;
8,781 units
infiltration well;
INDONESIA
TUJUAN 7
Pada tahun 2016,
7%
Jumlah sambungan
jaringan gas untuk
rumah tangga sebanyak
323.863 SR
(sumber: Kementerian ESDM)
(sumber: Kementerian ESDM)
SDGs FACTSHEET
INDONESIA
GOAL 7
In 2016,
956.4
(Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral
reliable, sustainable and Resources)
modern energy for all kWh
7%
the number of
households gas pipeline
network is
323,863 households
gas pipeline
(Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources)
(Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources)
LEMBAR FAKTA SDGs
INDONESIA
5,02% 11,52
3000000
Jumlah Jumlah
difabel dengan 2500000
2.600.000
wisatawan
juta wisatawan
pengalaman kerja manca juta orang nusantara
2000000
yang sama, 1.527.817 negara orang
PDB per Kapita
kecuali pada 1500000
1.243.243 1.187.845
(USD) tingkat keahlian 1000000
INDONESIA
In 2016: In 2016:
42.4% 57.6%
5.02%
workers with the 3000000
133.31
same work 2500000
2.600.000
Total 11.52
million Total
experience, International million
2000000
Tourist people Domestic
GDP per Capita except at a high 1.527.817 people Tourist
1000000
3,605
(Source: BPS - Statistics
(Source: BPS - Statistics
500000
0
High
185.392
Medium
493.247
Low
INDONESIA
mantap
INOVASI sektor ini menyerap 13,24%
tenaga kerja
DAN 6,05%
Jalan Nasional masuk dalam kondisi
INFRASTRUKTUR tidak mantap
Membangun infrastruktur
yang tangguh, meningkatkan
industri inklusif dan (Sumber: Kementerian PUPR)
Sektor industri manufaktur
berkelanjutan, serta
mendorong inovasi menyumbang 21,39% PDB PADA TAHUN 2016:
Indonesia (Sumber: BPS)
Proporsi individu yang mengakses
internet
INDONESIA
GOAL 9 MANUFACTURING
IN 2014,
AND 6.05%
INFRASTRUCTURE National roads are
STEADY condition
NOT in
Build resilient infrastructure,
promote inclusive and
sustainable industrialization (Source: Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing)
the manufacturing sector
and foster innovation
contributed 21.39% of IN 2016:
Indonesia’s GDP
(Source: BPS - Proportion of population who
Statistics Indonesia)
accessed the internet reached
INDONESIA
KESENJANGAN Koefisien GINI Indonesia (Sumber: Peraturan Presiden, No 131 Tahun 2015)
Rata-rata pertumbuhan
Rp ekonomi di daerah tertinggal
Dalam kurun waktu 2012-2016 pada tahun 2015 sebesar
terjadi peningkatan persentase
belanja perlindungan sosial
6,52%
mencapai 11,54% (Sumber: BPS)
(Sumber: BPS)
SDGs FACTSHEET
INDONESIA
REDUCED
areas/districts were determined
0.41 0.39 by the government as
disadvantaged areas
INEQUALITIES 2015 2016
INDONESIA
KOTA DAN
PERMUKIMAN Pada periode tahun
YANG
2014-2015,
Perkotaan Perdesaan sebanyak 357 kota/kabupaten
97,65% 92,80% (61%) telah memenuhi kriteria
BERKELANJUTAN (Sumber: BPS) sebagai kota berskala baik
(Sumber: Statistik KLHK 2015) Pada periode tahun
Menjadikan kota dan 2014-2015, sebanyak
permukiman inklusif, aman,
tangguh, dan berkelanjutan Pada tahun 2014, 58,6 juta ton sampah
ditangani dengan
pengguna kendaraan pengelolaan sampah
umum (4,69%) jauh lebih yang baik
kecil dibanding (Sumber: Statistik KLHK 2015)
INDONESIA
SUSTAINABLE
CITIES In the period of 2014-2015,
AND Urban
97.65%
Rural
92.80%
357 municipalities/districts
(61%) fulfilled the criteria of
INDONESIA
TUJUAN 12
Lima kolaborasi nasional pelaksanaan
Pada tahun 2016, Pola Konsumsi dan Produksi
hampir 100% limbah B3 Berkelanjutan telah ditetapkan:
JAWAB Lainnya
Pada tahun 2015,
Menjamin pola produksi dan Plastik sebanyak 1.526 perusahaan telah
konsumsi yang berkelanjutan melakukan upaya pengelolaan
11% lingkungan sesuai dengan regulasi
Botol/ (peringkat Proper: emas 12, hijau
Kaca 30% 106, biru 1.406)
(Sumber: KLHK)
15%
Pada tahun 2015,
sebanyak 2.239 perusahaan
telah memiliki Sertifikat Sistem
18% Manajemen Lingkungan
Penerapan prinsip 3R
(Reduce, Reuse, Recycle) di
bank sampah hanya
mengurangi 0,014% Ekolabel Tipe I (Produk yang Ekolabel Tipe II (Produk yang memiliki
memenuhi SNI kriteria ekolabel) klaim lingkungan deklarasi yang
timbulan sampah digunakan sebanyak 13 SNI, dan diverifikasi) digunakan sebanyak 18 nama
37 merek dari 4 jenis produk produk
(Sumber: KLHK) (Sumber: KLHK)
SDGs FACTSHEET
INDONESIA
GOAL 12
Five national collaborations between
In 2016, almost 100% of consumption patterns and sustainable
B3 waste from 1,640 production that have been determined:
RESPONSIBLE companies
(121,655,524.23 tons) was
1. Ecolabels and the procurement of an
environmentally friendly public
2. Environmentally friendly buildings
AND
facilities
PRODUCTION Others
In 2015, 1,526 companies
Ensure sustainable Plastic conducted environmental
consumption and production management efforts in line with
patterns 11% regulations (ranked of proper: 12
Bottle/ gold, 106 green, 1,406 blue)
glass 30% (Source: KLHK)
15%
In 2015,
2,239 companies had
Environmental Management
18% System Certificates
INDONESIA
IKLIM
orang hilang Orang Meninggal (Sesuai Perpres No.61 Tahun 2011)
2.139.124
KEHUTANAN DAN LAHAN PERTANIAN ENERGI DAN TRANSPORTASI
Orang Menderita GAMBUT
INDONESIA
457 282,038
people injured people migrate
2,139,124
FORESTRY AND FARMING ENERGY AND
people suffered PEATLANDS TRANSPORTATION
1.2% of households
have undertaken
natural disaster
rescue training and
simulation
INDONESIA
TUJUAN 14
EKOSISTEM
LAUTAN Pada tahun 2016, total
produksi penangkapan ikan
Indonesia memiliki regulasi Periode tahun 2012-2016,
untuk memerangi IUU Fishing jumlah penerima kredit kecil
Melestarikan dan (6,58 juta ton) masih berada
(UU No. 45/2009 dan Perpres No. di sektor perikanan meningkat
memanfaatkan secara di bawah tangkapan yang (2012: 6.644 penerima, 2014:
berkelanjutan sumber daya 115/2015)
diperbolehkan dari estimasi 16.532 penerima, 2016: 48.513
kelautan dan samudera MSY (9,9 juta ton) (Sumber: KKP) penerima)
untuk pembangunan (Sumber: KKP) (Sumber: KKP)
berkelanjutan
Indonesia memiliki luas mangrove
hampir mencapai 3,24 juta ha yang Indonesia memiliki ekosistem
mencakup 243 jenis mangrove. terumbu karang terluas di dunia
Indonesia memiliki biota laut sebanyak yang mencapai 2,5 juta ha sekitar
5.319 jenis fauna, 143 jenis flora, 971 6,20% dalam kondisi sangat bagus
jenis alga, dan 406 jenis mikroba (Sumber: LIPI)
(Sumber: BIG, IBSAP 2015)
Pada tahun 2016, Pada tahun 2016 telah ditetapkan Pada tahun 2016, telah
73% pelaku usaha bidang 11 Wilayah Pengelolaan ditetapkan 165 Kawasan
perikanan dan kelautan Perikanan (WPP) Konservasi Perairan (Marine
telah mentaati peraturan Protected Area/MPA) seluas
(Sumber: KKP)
yang berlaku 17,9 juta hektar
(Sumber: KKP) (Sumber: KKP)
SDGs FACTSHEET
INDONESIA
GOAL 14
LIFE BELOW
WATER In 2016, the total yield of
fish (6.58 million tonnes)
Indonesia has a regulation in In the period of 2012-2016, the
Conserve and sustainably combating IUU Fishing (Law No. number of small credit recipients
was still below the allowed
use the oceans, seas and 45/2009 and Presidential Decree in the fishing sector increased
fishing capacity determined (2012: 6,644 recipients, 2014:
marine resources for No. 115/2015 )
by MSY (9.9 million tonnes) 16,532 recipients, 2016: 48,513
sustainable development (Source: KKP) recipients)
(Source: KKP) (Source: KKP)
INDONESIA
2015: 43 kasus
Kasturi Celepuk
2016: 51 kasus
Monyet Hitam
Sulawesi Tengkuk-Ungu Rinjani
Tahun 2016, sebanyak 40 unit Pada 2016 telah beroperasi 135 KPH
kawasan konservasi 2017 – hingga Mei: (Kesatuan Pengelolaan Hutan), terdiri
atas 111 unit KPH Produksi dan 24 unit
memperoleh nilai indeks METT
(Management Effectiveness 15 kasus KPH Lindung dan terbentuk 89 unit KPH
Konservasi serta telah beroperasinya 57
Tracking Tool) minimal 70 unit KPH Konservasi non taman nasional
(Sumber: Ditjen Gakum KLHK) (Sumber: Laporan Kinerja dan Refleksi KLHK 2016,
(Sumber: Laporan Kinerja KLHK 2016, Dit KK KLHK) Laporan Kinerja KSDAE)
SDGs FACTSHEET
INDONESIA
LIFE ON 6.54%
2015: 43 cases
INDONESIA
71% Kementerian/Lembaga,
KEADILAN DAN 49,14% 85% Provinsi,
INDONESIA
71% Ministries/Institutions,
JUSTICE 49.14% 85% Province,
INDONESIA
TUJUAN 17
Jumlah kegiatan saling berbagi pengetahuan
Kerjasama Selatan Selatan dan Triangular (KSST)
Remitansi yang diterima Indonesia pada tahun 2015 sebesar 57 meningkat menjadi
INDONESIA
GOAL 17
The number of knowledge sharing activities for
South-South and Triangular Cooperation (SSTC)
Remittance received by Indonesia increased from 57 in 2015 to 84 in 2016
FOR
THE GOALS The contribution of the migrant
worker's remittance towards the
Indonesian GDP increased from 0.75%
Strengthen the means of in 2011 to 0.95% in 2016 In the period of 2014-2016 type of
implementation and revitalize (Source: Bank of Indonesia and BPS - Statistics SSTC program was mostly Training
Indonesia)
the global partnership for
sustainable development (Source: SSTC Report)