ZINC Talkbook - January 19
ZINC Talkbook - January 19
ZINC Talkbook - January 19
August 2018
Important notice
This presentation has been prepared by the management of Nyrstar NV (the "Company"). It does not constitute or form part of, and should not
be construed as, an offer, solicitation or invitation to subscribe for, underwrite or otherwise acquire, any securities of the Company or any
member of its group nor should it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract to purchase or subscribe for
any securities of the Company or any member of its group, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any
contract or commitment whatsoever
The information included in this presentation has been provided to you solely for your information and background and is subject to updating,
completion, revision and amendment and such information may change materially. Unless required by applicable law or regulation, no person
is under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained in this presentation and any opinions expressed in relation thereto
are subject to change without notice. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, reasonableness
or completeness of the information contained herein. Neither the Company nor any other person accepts any liability for any loss howsoever
arising, directly or indirectly, from this presentation or its contents
This presentation includes forward-looking statements that reflect the Company's intentions, beliefs or current expectations concerning, among
other things, the Company’s results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, performance, prospects, growth, strategies and the industry in
which the Company operates. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions and other factors that
could cause the Company's actual results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, performance, prospects, growth or opportunities, as well
as those of the markets it serves or intends to serve, to differ materially from those expressed in, or suggested by, these forward-looking
statements. The Company cautions you that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and that its actual results of
operations, financial condition and liquidity and the development of the industry in which the Company operates may differ materially from
those made in or suggested by the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. In addition, even if the Company's results of
operations, financial condition, liquidity and growth and the development of the industry in which the Company operates are consistent with the
forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, those results or developments may not be indicative of results or developments in
future periods. The Company and each of its directors, officers and employees expressly disclaim any obligation or undertaking to review,
update or release any update of or revisions to any forward-looking statements in this presentation or any change in the Company's
expectations or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which these forward-looking statements are based, except as required
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should inform themselves about, and observe any such restrictions. The Company’s shares have not been and will not be registered under the
US Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”) and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration under the Securities Act
or exemption from the registration requirement thereof
2
Table of Contents
I. Introduction
V. Appendix
3
Nyrstar today
Global multi-metals business, with a market leading position in zinc and lead, and growing positions
in other base and precious metals
Geographically diverse smelters operating in OECD countries1
LTM3 Revenue
EUR 3.7bn
LTM3 Underlying
EBITDA
EUR 214m
c. 4,100 employees
LTM3 production
1,028kt zinc metal
139kt zinc in conc.
Second largest zinc metal producer globally… …with consistent long term production
583
457 1'125 1'115
1'084 1'088 1'097 1'015 1'019
Korea Zinc Nyrstar Glencore Hindustan Nexa Boliden 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Zinc
Zinc Resources Guidance
I. Introduction
V. Appendix
5
Key investment highlights
6
Key investment highlights
Optimise • Full potential assessments completed across all five zinc smelters by end Q3 2017
zinc smelting • Low-capex initiatives set to deliver substantial improvements in production and operating
costs identified for delivery in 2018 and subsequent years
Supported by
Strengthened Strong macro
balance sheet fundamentals
7
1 Uplift vs 2016 Underlying EBITDA applying 2016 macros
Key investment highlights
• Sales of refined metal made above the LME zinc and lead
Metal reference price
premiums – Significant portion of zinc / lead production above commodity
grade due to strong R&D and technical know-how
Zinc and lead free
Metal
34%
• Extraction of additional metals and by-products from the
concentrates Total2:
By-
– High quality assets extract significant amounts of high value
products by-products from the feedstock
EUR 1,120m
– Exposure set to increase once Port Pirie is fully ramped-up
1 LTM – last 12 months from July 2017 to June 2018; Note that the percentages in the chart refer to the gross profit contributed by each source as a percentage of Gross Profit excluding Other Gross Profit (total of EUR 990m)
2 Includes Other Gross Profit of EUR (98)m 8
Key investment highlights
• Major milestones reached on Port Pirie Redevelopment project with all % Residue in feed Quarterly TSL feed rate (kt)
major systems now commissioned and ramp up on track
- Volume of material treated continues to ramp-up ahead of
schedule
- Proportion of residue in feed for the new TSL furnace, at 54% 57%
57% during the month of July 2018, ahead of the fully
ramped-up target of 40%
- Blast furnace optimisation during Q2’18 planned 37%
78
maintenance shut removed bottlenecks
- Sufficient internally generated residues (c. 400kt) stockpiled
48
on-site to feed the TSL furnace for the coming several years
• Two year ramp up significantly de-risked 21
0.5
- Continuous operating time increasing every month since
commencement of ramp-up in December 2017; Q4’17 Q1’18 Q2’18 Q3’18
proforma on
‒ Sinter plant / old acid plant operation extended to allow parallel July actual
operation with TSL furnace and new acid plant in 2018
Projected increase in throughput - greater ability to use residues Revised Underlying EBITDA uplift profile1
Optimisation expected to
620kt drive run-rate earnings uplift
in the region of EUR 130m
p.a. compared to 2016
Internal 260 ~ EUR130m
Full
360kt ~ EUR 100m ramp-up
Primary Pb 60
Zinc in concentrate production (kt) Full indicative potential - North American mines
200
+28% 180
123 160
2,000
140
27
96
120
100
80
Middle 1,500
Restart
Tennessee 60
of
ramped-up
MTN 40
production
20
0 1,000
2016 Restarts and 2017 Restart and 2018 Guidance 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F
operational operational
improvements improvements C1 cash cost (USD/t)
Zinc contained production (kt) 10
Key investment highlights
of global demand
• Urbanisation and industrialisation in China has 8'000
Demand • World consumption growth is forecast to average 1.9% p.a. from 2018 to 2023 with consumption
expected to grow from 14.4Mt in 2017 to 16.2Mt in 2023
outlook
(3)
• Ongoing urbanisation and industrialisation of the developing world will be a key driver
• Growing demand requires the construction of new smelter capacity around the end of the decade
700
3'000
600
500 2'500
400
2'000
300
200
1'500
100
0 1'000
Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul-
2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018
• The average annual requirement for new mine production is 500kt/a from 2017 to 2024
• Global mine production is forecast to increase by 10% in 2018 with 1,255kt of new production and
Supply expected to stabilise over the medium to long term. Major capacity additions in 2017 include:
outlook
(1)
• Antamina 165kt, Rampura Agucha 150kt, Sindesar Khurd 50kt, Bisha 50kt and Penasquito 35kt
• Although still tight this additional capacity will move the concentrates market to balance in 2018, with a
small surplus expected in 2019. Tightness is forecast to continue through to 2020
• Over the medium term zinc smelters receive a relatively • Concentrates draw • Metals draw down
constant share of the total value, with the zinc price having down • LME price increases
been positively correlated with TCs in the past • Power shifts to • Miners increase
miners production
• TCs fall
• Over the short term however, market dynamics influence the We are here
balance between metal prices and the treatment charges
Treatment Charge and LME zinc price
negotiated between smelters and mines
Share %
• The 2018 benchmark zinc TC, settled at the end of April 100
2018, of USD 147/dmt represents an historical low as 90
percentage of the payable zinc price 80
70
(1) Zinc smelters only pay for 85% of the metal contained in concentrates, but are able to recover approximately 96%. The difference is free metal
(2) Escalators and de-escalators were set at 0% for the 2017 and 2018 benchmark terms
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Key investment highlights
$2,437 Call
Q2-Q4’17: $2,543 Call
2,500 $2,496 Call on the recent market move higher
H2’18: $2,600 Put
2,000 Q2-Q4’17: $2,172 Put H1’18: $2,300 Put 100% of Zinc Mining free zinc for 2019
$2,100 Put $2,127 Put (166kt) hedged during Q2 2018 at c.
1,500 USD 3,000/t
Jan.16 Jul.16 Jan.17 Jul.17 Jan.18 Jul.18 Jan.19 Nyrstar will continue to implement zinc
price and FX hedges on a rolling 6-9
month basis to protect downside risk
1.30
1.15 Call
EUR-USD FX RATE
1.14 Call
1.18 FX
1.20
1.10 Call EUR-USD hedges have been entered
1.10 into for H2 2018 and H1 2019 at 1.18
1.08 Put covering 100% of total transactional
1.05 Put
1.00 expenses
1.00 Put
0.90
Jan.16 Jul.16 Jan.17 Jul.17 Jan.18 Jul.18 Jan.19 AUD-USD hedges cover 100% of
total transactional expenses for H2
2018 and H1 20191
0.85 H2’16: 0.83 Call
AUD-USD D FX RATE
1 100% of H2 2018 AUD-USD exposure buying 0.70 puts and selling 0.80 calls; 100% of H1 2019 AUD-USD exposure is hedged with a fixed forward at 0.76
2 100% of H2 2018 CAD-USD exposure buying 1.32 puts and selling 1.36 calls; 100% of 2019 CAD-USD exposure is hedged with a fixed forward at 1.32
Key investment highlights
Drawing Capacity
Maturity
€m €m • Continue to monitor the market for additional opportunistic
Structural Debt financings to further strengthen the balance sheet, extend the
2018 Convertible Bond 29 29 Sept 2018 existing maturity profile and maintain strong liquidity
2019 High Yield Bond 350 350 Sept 2019
• Rollover prepays to offset amortisation profile
2022 Convertible Bond 115 115 July 2022
2024 High Yield Bond 500 500 Mar 2024 • Issuance of new HY bond to address 2019 maturity
Structural Debt 994 994
16
1 In May 2018, Nyrstar elected to defer repayments of the Perpetual Securities and remains in full compliance with its contractual obligations relating to the financing arrangements
Key investment highlights
Hilmar Rode Roman Matej Frank Rittner Cristiano Melcher Willie Smit
Chief Executive Officer Interim Chief Financial Officer Chief Technical Officer Chief Commercial Officer Chief HR Officer
• This has effect for as long as Trafigura holds at least 20% but less than 50% of the shares in Nyrstar
Relationship
• Ensures all business dealings to continue on arm’s length basis and on normal commercial terms
Agreement
• Trafigura has two dependent directors on Nyrstar’s six person board
• Long term purchase agreements for approximately one third of Nyrstar’s zinc concentrate requirements
(600Kdmt per annum) and zinc metal off-take sales agreements for approximately one fifth of Nyrstar’s
Commercial zinc metal production (200Kt per annum) with a prepayment mechanism
Agreements
• Based on market prices with annually agreed premiums and TCs
• Provides Nyrstar with additional certainty of supply and leverages Trafigura’s strong marketing presence
• Trafigura WC Facility upsized to US$250m on a committed basis and extended on similar terms to end
2019
Capital • Nyrstar’s May 2018 US$125m zinc prepayment facility (ultimately upsized to US$150m in July 2018)
Commitment • Supported Nyrstar’s February 2016 €274m rights offering by underwriting up to €125m and participated
in the November 2017 €100m placement to maintain equity holding at c. 24.6%
• Leverage Trafigura’s financial relationships to achieve more beneficial terms for Nyrstar
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Table of Contents
I. Introduction
V. Appendix
19
Financial and operating results
120
110
94
€m H1-17 H1-18 ∆ ∆%
Revenue 1,806 1,930 124 7% 118
Metals Processing 117 88
MP U. EBITDA 117 118 1 1%
Mining U. EBITDA 15 28 13 87%
Mining1 32
Other U. EBITDA (22) (26) (5) 18% 15 28
Group Underlying EBITDA 111 120 9 8% Other (26) (26)
(22)
DD&A (77) (75) 2 (3%)
H1-174 H2-174 H1-18
Underlying Adjustments 2 (16) (18) -
Result from discontinued Capex (€’m)
35 (4) (39) (111%)
operations
Net financial expense (65) (71) (6) 9% 201
FX gain/(loss) (35) (5) 31 (86%) 161 40
Income tax (expense)/ benefit 9 1 (8) (89%) 134
Port Pirie Redevelopment 64 2
Loss for the period (21) (49) (29) 133%
124 68
1 Net Debt is short term and long term liabilities, exclusive of Zinc Prepay and perpetual securities, minus cash
-266 (FCF) 20
H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018
Financial and operating results
528 84 69
• Zinc in concentrate production of 69kt, up 30% on 518
78 11 Langlois
H1’17, primarily due to restart of MTN and Auby 82 69
53
optimisation of ETN Balen 117 137 Middle
16 22
Tennessee
Clarksville 59 52 East
32 36
Tennessee
Hobart 121 129
21
Financial and operating results
51
9 Other 1
(34)
Group 42 Zinc Group
€111m (11) €120m
(7)
(42) 44
118 MP
MP 117
Mining 28 Mining
15
Other (22) (26) Other
22
Financial and operating results
(1'351)
(1351)
1198
(1,198) (1,198)
Net Debt Group Capex Interest & Working Change Other Net Debt Change in Change in Net Debt
Mar’18 EBITDA Tax Capital in Ag/Zn exclusive Zn Zn prepay Perp Notes inclusive Zn
Prepays Prepay and Prepay and
Perp Notes Perp Notes
Jun’18 Jun’18
• Working capital inflow of EUR 240m in Q2’18 more than Working Capital movement (€’m)
offsetting the EUR 155m outflow experienced in Q1’18 33 Inflow
Outflow
• Interest and capex in-line with expectations (13)
52
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Table of Contents
I. Introduction
V. Appendix
24
Delivering a strong future for Nyrstar
• Nyrstar is set to become a cash flow positive business from 2018 on the basis of three key pillars:
– Locking in an earnings uplift of ~ EUR 130m1 per annum from the fully ramped-up Port Pirie Redevelopment with all major
systems including slag caster and acid plant now in operation
– Delivering a step change in operational performance to unlock the full potential of the existing zinc smelter asset base
– Extracting maximum value from Mining by optimising the North American mines, including the ramp-up of the restarted Middle
Tennessee Mines and restart of Myra Falls, to operate for strong free cash flow
• Balance sheet has been substantially strengthened utilising a diverse range of funding opportunities with liquidity of EUR 643m
at the end of June 2018
1 EUR 130m uplift against 2016 Underlying EBITDA using 2016 macroeconomic assumptions
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Table of Contents
I. Introduction
V. Appendix
26
Appendix
EUR:USD* 1.21 -/+ 10% +99 (81) +12 (10) +112 (91)
Zinc price $3,257/t -/+ 10% (37) +37 (32) +32 (69) +69
Zinc B/M TC $147/dmt -/+ 10% (21) +21 +3 (3) (18) +18
The sensitivities give the estimated effect on underlying EBITDA assuming that each individual price or exchange rate moved in isolation. The
relationship between currencies and commodity prices is a complex one and movements in exchange rates can affect movements in commodity
prices and vice versa. The exchange rate sensitivities include the effect on operating costs but exclude the effect on the revaluation of foreign 27
currency working capital. They should therefore be used with care.
Appendix
2016 Average
Production 2016 2018 2019 2020 Margin 2016 2018 2019 2020 Prices
Lead (kt) 182 185 230 250 Lead 12% 19% 20% 21% Lead USD 1,872/t
Silver (Moz) 15 16 21 23 Silver 8% 12% 17% 17% Silver USD 17/oz
Gold (koz) 46 125 165 180 Gold 16% 16% 16% 16% Gold USD 1,250/oz
Copper (kt)
Zinc (kt, segment)
5
1016
6
1060
7
1060
8
1060
X Copper
Zinc
95%
0.50%
90%
1.0%
90%
1.0%
90%
1.0%
X Copper USD 4,863/t
Zinc USD 2,095/t
=
Acid (kt) 1357 1600 1725 1725 Acid n/a n/a n/a n/a Acid USD 40/t
1 Margin represents increase in net value capture i.e. (Payable out – Payable in / Recoveries)
2 Uplift based on applying 2016 annual average metal prices, FX rates and 2016 commercial terms
3 Increase in Port Pirie DOC converted to EURm applying 2016 annual average EUR:AUD FX rate
29
Appendix
2018 guidance
Production Capex
2017 2018 2017 2018
€’m
Actual Guidance Actual Guidance
Metals Processing
Zinc (kt) 1,019 1,050 – 1,100 Metals Processing 303 130 - 150
30
For further information:
Anthony Simms
Head of Investor Relations & Insured Risk
D: +41 (0)44 745 8157
M: +41 (0)79 722 2152
E: anthony.simms@nyrstar.com
www.nyrstar.com
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