AN ASSIGNMENT

ON
MARKETING RESEARCH 2 MKT 425

QUESTION:

CRITICALLY EXAMINE THE EFFECT OF ECONOMIC RECESSION ON A

DEVELOPING COUNTRY LIKE NIGERIA.

PREPARED BY:
MUYILIU ROBIAT MOTUNROYE
HM20210104303
HND II FT

SUBMITTED TO:
DR O.S OMOTOSHO Jnr
LECTURER IN CHARGE

DEPARTMENT OF MARKETING,
SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT STUDIES,
THE FEDERAL POLYTECHNIC EDE, OSUN STATE.

SEPTEMBER, 2023

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BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
Economic recessions are recurrent and formidable challenges that affect nations across
the globe, with their impact often more pronounced in developing countries. These
periods of economic contraction are characterized by a decline in economic activity,
decreased consumer and business spending, rising unemployment, and reduced
economic growth. In the context of developing countries, such as Nigeria, economic
recessions pose particularly complex and pressing issues due to existing
vulnerabilities and structural constraints.

Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa and one of the largest economies on the
continent, has faced periodic economic recessions throughout its history. The causes
of these recessions are multifaceted and include both internal and external factors.
Historical data indicate that Nigeria has experienced economic downturns associated
with fluctuations in oil prices, its primary export commodity, as well as factors like
global economic shocks and domestic economic mismanagement (Soludo, 2011)
(Obadan, 2016).

One of the defining features of economic recessions in Nigeria is their impact on

macroeconomic indicators. During recession periods, the country has witnessed a
significant decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates (NBS, 2020). High
inflation rates and soaring unemployment levels have further compounded the
economic challenges, leading to adverse consequences for the livelihoods of millions
of Nigerians (Adebiyi et al., 2017).

In addition to economic indicators, economic recessions also exert profound social

and welfare effects. Income inequality tends to widen, pushing vulnerable populations
further into poverty (Adedokun & Iheanacho, 2017). Access to essential services, such
as education and healthcare, becomes more precarious for many Nigerians
(Ogwumike & Aluko, 2017). Moreover, economic recessions often give rise to social
unrest and increased crime rates, as frustrated and unemployed youths become more
susceptible to engaging in illegal activities (Odozi, 2020).

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Government responses to economic recessions in Nigeria have varied in terms of their
effectiveness. Fiscal and monetary policies, as well as international assistance and
loans, have been employed to mitigate the impact of recessions and stimulate
economic recovery. However, the success of these policies has been inconsistent,
raising questions about their appropriateness and implementation (Oduh et al., 2019).

Given the recurrent nature of economic recessions in Nigeria and their far-reaching
consequences, it is imperative to critically examine their effects and the strategies
employed to address them. This research seeks to contribute to the existing body of
knowledge by conducting a comprehensive analysis of economic recessions in
Nigeria, evaluating their causes, manifestations, and repercussions on various facets of
the economy and society. Moreover, it aims to provide insights into policy responses
and their effectiveness, with the ultimate goal of informing policymakers, economists,
and stakeholders on strategies for sustainable economic recovery.

STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Economic recessions in developing countries, particularly in the case of Nigeria,

present significant and multifaceted challenges. These downturns disrupt economic
stability, leading to a cascade of adverse effects on various sectors of society. Despite
their recurrent nature in Nigeria, there remains a critical need to comprehensively
examine and address the complex problems they engender. Economic recessions in
Nigeria are characterized by a sharp decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth
rates, high inflation, and increased unemployment levels. These macroeconomic
instabilities disrupt the livelihoods of millions of Nigerians, exacerbating poverty and
income inequality.

As the economy contracts, access to essential services, including education and

healthcare, becomes more tenuous for many citizens. Income inequality widens, and
vulnerable populations are pushed further into poverty. It often correlate with a rise in

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social unrest and crime rates as unemployed and frustrated youths become more
susceptible to engaging in illegal activities: The Nigerian government has employed
various fiscal and monetary policies, as well as international assistance and loans, to
mitigate the impact of recessions and stimulate economic recovery. However, the
effectiveness of these policies has been inconsistent, raising questions about their
appropriateness and implementation.

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
1. To Analyze the Causes of Economic Recessions in Nigeria
2. To Examine the Manifestations of Economic Recessions in Nigeria
3. To Investigate the Social and Welfare Effects of Economic Recessions
4. To Evaluate Government Policy Responses during Economic Recessions

RESEARCH QUESTIONS:
1. What are the primary causes and triggers of economic recessions in Nigeria,
and how do they compare to global economic trends and shocks?

2. How do economic recessions manifest in Nigeria in terms of key

macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP growth, inflation rates, and
unemployment levels?

3. What are the social and welfare consequences of economic recessions in

Nigeria, including their impact on income inequality, access to essential
services, and social stability?

4. What fiscal, monetary, and international assistance measures have the Nigerian
government historically employed in response to economic recessions, and how
effective have these policies been?

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RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS OF THE STUDY
H0: There is no significant relationship between the causes of economic recessions in
Nigeria and global economic trends and shocks.
H1: There is a significant relationship between the causes of economic recessions in
Nigeria and global economic trends and shocks.

THEORETICAL REVIEW
A widely accepted definition of a recession is a decline in a country's real Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) for two or more consecutive quarters or a significant
decrease in overall economic activity (NBER, 2020). Recessions can result from a
variety of factors, including external shocks, internal imbalances, or a combination of
both.

CAUSES OF RECESSIONS
Recessions can have multiple triggers, making them a subject of extensive research.
External factors, such as global economic crises, fluctuations in commodity prices,
and geopolitical events, can initiate recessions (Reinhart & Rogoff, 2009). Internal
factors, including fiscal mismanagement, financial crises, and structural imbalances
within an economy, can also contribute to recessionary conditions (Blanchard &
Leigh, 2013).

KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DURING RECESSIONS

A recession typically leads to a decline in GDP, reflecting reduced economic output
and consumption (Fisher, 1997). Recessions can result in decreased consumer
demand, leading to lower inflation rates, and occasionally deflation (Mishkin, 2011).
A hallmark of recessions is rising unemployment as businesses reduce their workforce
to cut costs (Krugman & Wells, 2015). Recessions vary in duration and severity. They
can last from several months to several years and can be classified as mild, moderate,
or severe based on the extent of economic contraction and the duration of the
downturn (Auerbach & Gorodnichenko, 2012).

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Governments and central banks often implement various policies to combat
recessions. These policies may include fiscal measures, such as stimulus packages,
and monetary measures, like interest rate adjustments (Blanchard et al., 2020). The
effectiveness of these policies can vary based on the specific circumstances and causes
of the recession.
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

These theoretical frameworks provide various lenses through which economists and
researchers analyze the causes and consequences of economic recessions. The choice
of framework depends on the specific research questions and the economic context
being examined, highlighting the richness and diversity of economic thought in
understanding recessions.

HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC RECESSIONS IN DEVELOPING

COUNTRIES

What Is a Global Recession?

A global recession is an extended period of economic decline around the world. A
global recession involves more or less synchronized recessions across many national
economies, as trade relations and international financial systems transmit economic
shocks and the impact of recession from one country to another.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) uses a broad set of criteria to identify global
recessions, including a decrease in per capita gross domestic product (GDP)
worldwide. According to the IMF’s definition, this drop in global output must
coincide with a weakening of other macroeconomic indicators, such as trade, capital
flows, and employment.

A global recession is an extended period of economic decline around the world.

The IMF uses several criteria to analyze the occurrence, scale, and impact of global
recessions.

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Global recessions involve synchronized recessions across many interconnected
economies.
The effect of a global recession on individual economies varies based on several
factors, including their degree of connection to and dependence on the global
economy.
Understanding Global Recessions
Macroeconomic indicators have to wane for a significant period of time to classify as
a recession. In the United States, it is generally accepted that GDP must drop for two
consecutive quarters for a true recession to take place, based on analysis by the
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which is considered the national
authority in declaring and dating business cycles.

HISTORY OF GLOBAL RECESSIONS

Up until 2020, according to the IMF, there have been four global recessions since
World War II, beginning in 1975, 1982, 1991, and 2009. In 2020, the IMF declared a
new global recession, which it dubbed the Great Lockdown, caused by the widespread
implementation of quarantines and social distancing measures during the COVID-19
outbreak. This is the worst global recession on record since the Great Depression.

The impact and severity of the effect of a global recession on a country vary based on
several factors. For example, a country's trading relationships with the rest of the
world determine the scale of impact on its manufacturing sector. On the other hand,
the sophistication of its markets and investment efficiency determine how the
financial services industry is affected. The interconnection of trade relations and
financial systems among countries can help to spread an economic shock in one
region into a global recession. This process is known as contagion.

EXAMPLE OF A GLOBAL RECESSION

The Great Recession was an extended period of extreme economic distress observed
around the world between 2007 and 2009. World trade plunged by over 15% between

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2008 and 2009 during this recession. The scale, impact, and recovery of the downturn
varied from country to country.

The U.S. experienced a major stock market correction in 2008 after the housing
market collapsed and Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. Economic conditions had
already turned down by the end of 2007 and major indicators such as unemployment
and inflation hit critical levels with the collapse of the housing bubble and ensuing
financial crisis.

The situation improved a few years after the stock market bottomed in 2009, but other
nations experienced much longer roads to recovery. Over a decade later, the effects
can still be felt in many developed nations and emerging markets. According to
economic research conducted for the NBER, the United States would have suffered
limited shocks to its economy if the 2008 recession had not originated within its
borders. This is mainly because it has limited trading relationships with the rest of the
world in comparison to the size of its domestic economy.

On the other hand, a manufacturing powerhouse such as Germany would have

suffered regardless of the robustness of its internal economy because it has a vast
number of trade linkages with the rest of the world.

LITERATURE ON THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC RECESSIONS IN

DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Impact of Economic Recessions in Developing Countries
Economic recessions in developing countries have been the subject of extensive
research, with scholars examining their multifaceted impact on various aspects of
society. While the specific consequences can vary from one country to another,
several common themes emerge in the literature.

Economic recessions often result in a significant decline in Gross Domestic Product

(GDP) growth rates, causing economic output to contract. This contraction can lead to
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reduced economic opportunities and increased poverty rates .High inflation rates and
rising unemployment levels are also typical features of economic recessions in
developing countries, contributing to income inequality and social distress. Access to
essential services like education and healthcare can become more challenging during
economic recessions, especially for vulnerable populations. This can exacerbate
disparities in well-being and access to opportunities.
Developing countries often implement various policy measures in response to
economic recessions, including fiscal stimulus packages, monetary policy
adjustments, and seeking international assistance. The effectiveness of these policy
responses varies, and scholars have examined the factors contributing to successful or
unsuccessful interventions.

Researchers have investigated the sustainability of economic recovery following a

recession in developing countries. The ability to rebuild and diversify the economy to
withstand future shocks is a critical consideration.

Economic recessions in developing countries are often intertwined with global

economic trends. The interconnectedness of the global economy means that external
factors, such as fluctuations in commodity prices or financial crises in developed
nations, can have profound effects on developing economies.

RESEARCH DESIGN

Begin by clearly defining the research objectives. What specific aspects of the
economic recession in Nigeria do you want to examine? Are you interested in its
impact on GDP, unemployment, poverty, or other socio-economic factors? Define
your research questions and hypotheses.

Data Collection: Identify the sources of data you will use for your study. In the case
of economic recession, you may rely on macroeconomic data from government

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agencies, international organizations (e.g., World Bank, IMF), and academic sources.
Consider both quantitative and qualitative data sources.

Data Analysis: Determine the analytical techniques you will use to examine the data.
Depending on your research questions, you may use statistical methods, econometric
models, and data visualization techniques. For qualitative data, thematic analysis or
content analysis could be relevant.

Time Frame: Define the time frame of your study. Economic recessions can have
both short-term and long-term effects. Decide whether you will focus on a specific
recession period or take a longer historical perspective.

RESEARCH APPROACH
Quantitative Approach

If you choose a quantitative approach, you will primarily deal with numerical data.
Common quantitative methods for studying economic recessions include analyzing
the relationship between recession indicators (e.g., GDP growth, unemployment rates)
and various independent variables (e.g., government policies, global economic
factors). Examining trends and patterns in economic data over time to identify
recessionary periods and their characteristics. Using data from multiple time periods
and regions in Nigeria to capture both cross-sectional and time-series variations.

Qualitative Approach
If you opt for a qualitative approach, you will delve into the narratives, experiences,
and perceptions of individuals and communities affected by the recession. Qualitative
methods include conducting interviews with key stakeholders, such as policymakers,
business leaders, and affected individuals, to gather qualitative data on the recession's
impact. Combining quantitative and qualitative methods can provide a more
comprehensive understanding of the recession's impact. For example, you might use
quantitative data to analyze economic trends and complement it with qualitative

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interviews to capture the human stories behind the statistics. Consider comparing
Nigeria's experience with economic recession to that of other developing countries to
identify common patterns, unique challenges, and potential policy lessons.

Ethical Considerations

Ensure that your research design adheres to ethical principles, including informed
consent, privacy protection, and respect for research participants' rights. Obtain
necessary approvals, especially when dealing with sensitive data or human subjects.

Data collection methods

When conducting research to critically examine the effect of economic recession on a
developing country like Nigeria, you'll need to employ various data collection
methods to gather the necessary information and evidence. Here are some common
data collection methods suitable for this type of research:

Surveys: Surveys involve collecting data from a sample of individuals or

organizations through structured questionnaires.

Interviews: In-depth interviews can provide rich qualitative data. You can conduct
interviews with key informants, such as government officials, business leaders,
economists, and affected individuals.

Focus Groups: Focus group discussions involve small groups of participants who
engage in guided conversations about specific topics related to the recession. This
method is useful for exploring collective experiences, attitudes, and opinions.

Document Analysis: Analyzing official documents, reports, policy papers, and

academic literature can provide valuable secondary data. You can examine
government reports, economic indicators, and historical data to gain insights into the
recession's context and evolution.

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Observation: Observational research involves direct observation of events or
phenomena related to the recession. This method can be used to study behavioral
patterns, economic activities, or public responses during recessionary periods.

Secondary Data Analysis: Utilize existing data sources such as government statistics,
economic indicators, and surveys conducted by research organizations. Secondary
data analysis can help you uncover trends and patterns in economic data without the
need for primary data collection.

Case Studies: Conduct in-depth case studies of specific regions, industries, or

communities within Nigeria to gain a deep understanding of the recession's impact on
a micro-level. Case studies involve a combination of data collection methods,
including interviews, document analysis, and observations.

When selecting data collection methods, consider the research objectives, available
resources, and the depth of information required. A combination of quantitative and
qualitative methods may offer a more comprehensive understanding of the recession's
impact on Nigeria's economy and society. Additionally, ensure that your data
collection methods align with ethical guidelines and protect the privacy and rights of
research participants.

DATA SOURCES AND SAMPLE SELECTION

To gather relevant data and select an appropriate sample for a research study critically
examining the effect of economic recession on a developing country like Nigeria,
you'll need to consider various data sources and sampling techniques.

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DATA SOURCES

Government Agencies: Government sources are primary providers of economic and

social data. In Nigeria, key agencies like the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and the Federal Ministry of Finance publish
economic indicators, employment statistics, and fiscal data.

International Organizations: Organizations like the World Bank, International

Monetary Fund (IMF), and United Nations provide valuable data on global and
national economic trends, including information specific to Nigeria.

Academic Databases: Academic databases such as JSTOR, Google Scholar, and

university libraries offer access to research papers, articles, and publications related to
economic recessions in Nigeria.

Historical Data: Historical economic data can be accessed through archival records,
government publications, and academic studies. This data can help you establish
trends and patterns over time.

Qualitative Interviews: Conduct interviews with key informants, such as government

officials, economists, business leaders, and affected individuals. Qualitative data can
provide insights into the human experiences and perceptions of the recession.

Local Sources: Explore local newspapers, magazines, and online news outlets for
articles and reports that reflect the local impact of the recession in Nigeria. Local
sources can provide on-the-ground perspectives.

SAMPLE SELECTION

Random Sampling: If you aim for a representative sample, use random sampling
techniques. Randomly select individuals or organizations from the population to

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ensure each has an equal chance of being included. This can be challenging due to
data availability constraints.

DATA ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES

To critically examine the effect of economic recession on a developing country like

Nigeria, you'll need to employ various data analysis techniques to extract meaningful
insights from your data. The specific techniques you use will depend on your research
questions, data type, and research design. Here are some common data analysis
techniques:

Descriptive Statistics: Start by summarizing your data using descriptive statistics.

Calculate measures such as mean, median, mode, standard deviation, and variance to
gain an overview of the central tendency and variability of your variables.

Time-Series Analysis: If your data spans multiple time periods, use time-series
analysis techniques to explore trends, patterns, and fluctuations. Common methods
include moving averages, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)
models, and exponential smoothing.

Qualitative Analysis: If you collected qualitative data through interviews or focus

groups, perform thematic analysis or content analysis to identify themes, patterns, and
insights from the textual or qualitative data.

Hypothesis Testing: Use statistical hypothesis testing to determine whether observed

differences or relationships in your data are statistically significant. Common tests
include t-tests, chi-squared tests, and ANOVA.

Data Visualization: Create visualizations such as line charts, bar graphs, scatterplots,
and heatmaps to illustrate trends, relationships, and patterns in your data. Tools like

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Excel, Python (using libraries like Matplotlib and Seaborn), and R are commonly used
for data visualization.

Machine Learning: Depending on the complexity of your research questions and the
volume of data, machine learning techniques like classification, regression, and
clustering can be employed for predictive modeling and pattern recognition.

Remember that the choice of data analysis techniques should align with your research
objectives and the nature of your data. It's often beneficial to use a combination of
techniques to provide a comprehensive understanding of the recession's effects on
Nigeria's economy and society. Additionally, ensure that your data analysis is
conducted rigorously and transparently to produce reliable and valid results.

AREA OF THE STUDY

The area of study for your research, which critically examines the effect of economic
recession on a developing country like Nigeria, encompasses various dimensions
related to both the economic and social impacts of recessions in Nigeria.

RANDOM SAMPLING
Sampling could be applied in various ways, depending on the specific research goals:
If your research involves assessing the impact of the recession on individual
households, you could use random sampling to select households from different
regions or socioeconomic groups in Nigeria. This ensures that your sample is
representative of the entire population of interest. For studying the impact on
businesses, randomly selecting firms from various industries and regions in Nigeria
would provide a representative sample. This allows you to analyze how different
sectors are affected by the recession.

When analyzing economic indicators like GDP growth, inflation, or unemployment

rates, you can randomly select years or quarters from the time series data to study the

15
impact of economic recessions in different time periods. You can randomly select
states or regions within Nigeria and study the economic conditions in those areas.
When investigating consumer behavior during a recession, randomly selecting
individuals or households from diverse backgrounds and income levels helps you
capture a broad range of responses and behaviors.

Even in qualitative research, you can use random sampling to select participants for
focus group discussions or interviews. This ensures that the perspectives gathered are
not biased toward a particular group.

RESEARCH INSTRUMENT
A research instrument refers to the tools, techniques, or methods used to collect data
in a research study. The choice of research instruments depends on the research
objectives, the type of data needed, and the methodology employed. Here are some
common research instruments that can be used in a study examining the effect of
economic recession on a developing country like Nigeria:

Questionnaires: Questionnaires are structured sets of questions administered to

participants, often in a written format. They are useful for collecting quantitative data
from a large sample of respondents. Questionnaires can be distributed electronically or
in print, and they are suitable for collecting information on topics like household
income, consumer behavior, or business sentiment during a recession.

VALIDITY OF THE RESEARCH INSTRUMENT

The validity of a research instrument refers to its ability to measure what it is intended
to measure accurately. In the context of a study examining the effect of economic
recession on a developing country like Nigeria, ensuring the validity of your research
instruments is crucial to producing credible and trustworthy findings.

CONCLUSION
Summary of key findings

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The key findings of a study that critically examines the effect of economic recession
on a developing country like Nigeria would depend on the specific research
objectives, methodology, and data analysis conducted. However, here's a general
summary of potential key findings that such a study might reveal:

Economic Contraction: Economic recessions in Nigeria are associated with a

significant contraction in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The study finds evidence of
negative GDP growth rates during recessionary periods.

Unemployment and Job Loss: High levels of unemployment and job loss are common
during economic recessions in Nigeria. The study highlights the impact of recession
on employment rates and the challenges faced by both formal and informal labor
markets.

Income Inequality: Economic recessions tend to exacerbate income inequality in

Nigeria. The research reveals that vulnerable populations are disproportionately
affected, leading to a widening income gap. This examines the effectiveness of
government policies and interventions during recessions

Financial Sector Stability: The research assesses the stability of Nigeria's financial
sector during economic downturns. It may identify trends in non-performing loans,
banking sector resilience, and regulatory responses.

Implications of the research

The implications of a research study critically examining the effect of economic
recession on a developing country like Nigeria are multifaceted and can influence
various aspects of policy, practice, and decision-making. Here are some key
implications of such research:

Policy Formulation and Adjustment: Research findings can inform policymakers

about the impact of economic recessions on Nigeria's economy and society. This

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information is crucial for the formulation and adjustment of economic policies.
Implications may include the need for counter-cyclical fiscal policies, targeted social
safety nets, and measures to diversify the economy.

Government Response: Understanding the implications of recession can guide the

government's response. Policymakers may need to consider stimulus packages,
monetary policy adjustments, and regulatory reforms to stabilize the economy and
mitigate the adverse effects of recessions.

Social Safety Nets: Research can underscore the importance of robust social safety
nets during economic downturns. Implications may include expanding and improving
welfare programs to protect vulnerable populations from the worst impacts of
recession.

Business Strategies: Businesses can use research findings to develop resilience

strategies during economic recessions. Implications may involve diversifying revenue
streams, reducing costs, and adjusting business models to withstand economic shocks.

SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH

Further research on the impact of economic recession on developing countries like

Nigeria can build upon existing knowledge and address critical gaps in understanding.
Compare Nigeria's experience with economic recessions to that of other developing
countries. Such comparative studies can provide insights into commonalities,
differences, and the effectiveness of policy responses across regions. Focus on
specific sectors of the Nigerian economy, such as agriculture, manufacturing, or the
informal sector, to understand how recessions affect different industries and value
chains. This can inform targeted policies for sectoral resilience and investigate the
cultural and social dimensions of economic recessions in Nigeria. Explore how

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cultural norms and social networks influence coping strategies, economic decision-
making, and community resilience.
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