Environ Monit Assess (2023) 195:1173

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11797-3

RESEARCH

Future projections of worst floods and dam break analysis

in Mahanadi River Basin under CMIP6 climate change
scenarios
Roniki Anjaneyulu · Ratnakar Swain ·
Mukunda Dev Behera

Received: 26 June 2023 / Accepted: 25 August 2023

© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023

Abstract  This study provides a comprehensive study identifies peak flooding events. In addition,
analysis of the hydrological effects and flood risks of the HEC-RAS model is used to assess the effects
the Hirakud Reservoir, considering different CMIP6 of dam breaches. Downstream of the Hirakud Dam,
climate change scenarios. Using the HEC-HMS the analysis highlights potential inundation areas
and HEC-RAS models, the study evaluates future and depth variations. The study determines the fol-
flow patterns and the potential repercussions of lowing inundation areas for the worst flood scenar-
dam breaches. The following summary of the work: ios: 3651.52 k­ m2, 2931.46 k­ m2 and 4207.6 ­km2 for
firstly, the HEC-HMS model is calibrated and vali- the near-future, mid-future and far-future periods,
dated using daily stage-discharge observations from respectively. In addition, the utmost flood depths
the Basantpur station. With coefficient of determina- for these scenarios are determined to be 31 m, 29 m
tion (R2) values of 0.764 and 0.858 for calibration and 39 m for the respective future periods. The study
and validation, respectively, the model demonstrates area identifies 105 vulnerable villages and several
satisfactory performance. Secondly, The HEC-HMS towns. This study emphasizes the importance of con-
model predicts future flow for the Hirakud Reser- templating climate change scenarios and implement-
voir under three climate change scenarios (SSP2- ing proactive measures to mitigate the peak flooding
4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and for three future events in the Hirakud reservoir region.
periods (near future, mid future and far future).
Thirdly, by analyzing time-series hydrographs, the Keywords  Climate change adaption · Disaster
management · Flood inundation · HEC-HMS · HEC-
RAS · Hirakud Reservoir
R. Anjaneyulu 
Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute
of Technology (NIT), Rourkela, Odisha, India
e-mail: ronikianji@gmail.com Introduction

R. Swain (*)  Floods are recurrent and catastrophic natural disas-

Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute
ters that result in substantial loss of life, devastation
of Technology (NIT), Rourkela, Odisha, India
e-mail: swainrk@nitrkl.ac.in of infrastructure and ecological disruption (Dhar,
2003; Luo, 2015; Wasson et  al., 2019; Xu et  al.,
M. D. Behera  2022). Understanding flood causes and mechanisms
Department of CORAL, Indian Institute of Technology
is crucial for risk estimation, management and miti-
Kharagpur, Kharagpur, West Bengal, India
e-mail: mdbehera@coral.iitkgp.ac.in gation (Andersen and Shepherd, 2013; Khan et  al.,

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2012; Dong et al., 2022; Ralph and Dettinger, 2012). Previous research has examined the implications
In recent years, the complexity of climate change has of dam breach analysis in various contexts (Balaji
prompted extensive research to enhance forecasting and Kumar, 2018). Abdelghani (2023) predicted the
abilities and comprehend its multidimensional effects effects of flood wave propagation following the fail-
(Tabari, 2020). Global climate models (GCMs) are ure of the Taksebt dam and proposed an effective
essential for simulating future climate change sce- emergency action plan for mitigating these effects.
narios and their potential impacts (Kundzewicz et al., Bharat et  al. (2021) conducted a dam break/breach
2010; Maraun et  al., 2010; Acharki et  al., 2023). analysis for the Hidkal dam utilizing the one-dimen-
Located near the Gulf of Bengal, the Mahanadi River sional hydraulic model HEC-RAS and produced an
basin experiences frequent floods and cyclones, mak- inundation map identifying the affected areas. Simi-
ing it highly susceptible to climate change. The prox- larly, Bilali et al. (2022) developed an integrated strat-
imity of the Mahanadi watershed to the ocean exposes egy using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), HEC-RAS
it to temperature and pressure variations, exacerbating 2D and HEC-LifeSim models to simulate dam breach
its vulnerability to flooding (Parhi et al., 2012a; Pan- scenarios and manage flood risk with probability.
dey et al., 2022). The region has a history of calami- Tedla et al. (2021) coupled the HEC-HMS and HEC-
tous flooding, with notable events occurring in 1855, RAS models to perform flood mapping of a hypo-
1933, 1937, 1955, 1980, 1982, 2003, 2008 and 2011 thetical dam breach under various flood inflow return
among others. Recent flooding in the catchment of periods. Given the significance of floods and their
the Mahanadi River has been attributed to an increase potential effects on the Mahanadi River basin and the
in intense precipitation (Jena et al., 2014; Panda et al., importance of understanding the impact of climate
2022; Pandey et al., 2022). Hirabayashi et al. (2021) change and dam failure analysis, this study seeks to
found a surge in the frequency of floods in South- address existing research gaps. With the introduction
ern Asia. According to research in recent times, the of CMIP6 climate projections, uncertainties persist
CMIP6-GCMs predicted a warmer and wetter climate regarding the potential changes in worst-case flood
in South Asia (Lakshmi and Satyanarayana, 2019). scenarios under climate change, despite extensive
Sharma et  al. (2018) highlighted several uncertain- studies on floods in the basin. Moreover, to mitigate
ties at the global level between excessive precipita- the devastation caused by dam failures, a comprehen-
tion and floods. As a result, while constructing water sive analysis of dam breach parameters is essential.
resource projects, it is vital to account for predicted Therefore, the following primary objectives of this
climate change. study are (i) to examine the hydrological effects and
Despite previous research on floods in the Maha- flood risks of the Hirakud Reservoir under different
nadi River basin, there are still ambiguities regard- climate change scenarios, including an evaluation of
ing the potential changes in worst-case flood sce- the trends in annual discharge and peak flood events;
narios due to climate change, particularly in light (ii) to predict future flows and evaluate the reservoir’s
of the CMIP6 climate projections. Consequently, inflow, taking into account various climate change
this research aims to evaluate the current and antici- scenarios and different future periods and (iii) to ana-
pated changes in flood patterns within the Mahanadi lyze potential inundation areas, flood depths and the
watershed. A reservoir module of the Hydrologic dynamic characteristics of flood events downstream
Engineering Centres’ Hydrologic Modelling System of the Hirakud Dam to determine the effects of dam
(HEC-HMS) is utilized. By incorporating prospective breaches.
discharge data from the HEC-HMS model, the study This research contributes to our comprehension of
aims to determine the worst flood scenario the basin how climate change affects peak floods and dam fail-
may experience due to climate change. In addition ures in the Mahanadi River basin. The findings of this
to analyzing flood patterns, this research will assess study will aid in the development of effective flood
the potential effects of dam failures on the reservoir’s management, risk reduction and emergency response
downstream areas. This analysis will aid in identify- strategies by decision-makers. By understanding the
ing high-risk areas and developing effective emer- potential changes in worst-case flood scenarios and
gency action plans to minimize loss of life and prop- assessing the effects of dam failure, stakeholders in
erty damage in the Mahanadi River basin. flood-prone areas can make informed decisions to

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safeguard lives, infrastructure and the environment. inter-variable dependence structure that influences
This study’s ultimate objective is to contribute to hydrological variables (Cannon, 2016). Multivariate
developing sustainable and resilient flood manage- bias correction (MBC) was utilized in this study as a
ment strategies in the Mahanadi River basin by sup- common and effective method (Cannon, 2016). For
plying valuable data. the historical period (1951–2014) and the projected
period (2015–2100), bias correction was undertaken
at a spatial resolution of 0.250 for the Mahanadi River
Methodology basin (Pandey et al., 2022).
The bias-corrected daily precipitation data were
Climate change data analysis incorporated into the HEC-HMS model to simu-
late discharge in the Mahanadi basin (Pandey et  al.,
The NorESM2-MM CMIP6-GCM model produced 2022). This model allows for the simulation of runoff
daily precipitation data for the historical period and provides valuable insights into the hydrological
(1951–2014) and future period (2015–2100) for three response of the basin to different climate scenarios.
climate change scenarios: SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and The study examined three discrete time periods: the
SSP5-8.5 (Gidden et al., 2019). SSP2-4.5 has a radia- near future (2025–2050), the mid future (2051–2075)
tive forcing of 4.5 watts/m2, SSP3-7.0 has a forcing and the far future (2076–2100). Cannon (2016) and
of 7.0 watts/m2 and SSP5-8.5 has a forcing of 8.5 Pandey et al. (2022) provide information on the bias
watts/m2. The designated GCM was chosen based correction methodology and its historical and pro-
on its ability to simulate India’s summer monsoons spective application. By incorporating bias-corrected
(Pandey et al., 2022; Aadhar and Mishra, 2020; Jose daily precipitation data into the HEC-HMS model,
and Dwarakish, 2022). Using the procedure described this research aims to provide a comprehensive under-
by Aadhar and Mishra (2020) and Pandey et  al. standing of the hydrological response of the Maha-
(2022), the ability of the GCM to simulate the sum- nadi River basin to climate change scenarios. The
mer monsoons was evaluated. Precipitation data from simulation results are utilized in the analysis of dam
the CMIP6-GCM output required bias correction to failure. The specific methodology is depicted in a
ensure accurate hydrologic predictions. For bias cor- flowchart in Fig. 1.
rection of climate model output variables, numerous
techniques, such as quantile-quantile mapping, linear Rainfall‑runoff simulation and assessment of peak
scaling and empirical quantile mapping, can be uti- flood hydrographs using the HEC‑HMS model
lized (Wood et  al., 2002; Shah et  al., 2017; Aadhar
and Mishra, 2017; Mishra et  al., 2020). However, The HEC-HMS model runs the precipitation-
univariate approaches to bias correction ignore the runoff processes of a dendritic watershed

Fig. 1  Flowchart of the
Basin Model
whole methodology

Meteorologic Model calibration and Flood flow

HEC-HMS
al model validation hydrographs

Control Dam geometry HEC-RAS DEM

specification

Dam Break Modelling

Climate data Downscaling

Peak flood analysis Flood Inundation map

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system. Rainfall-runoff hydrographs predicted Dam break analysis using the HEC‑RAS model
by the HEC-HMS model are utilized alone or in
combination with other tools for flow forecasting The HEC-RAS model simulates the dam breach
research, urban drainage studies, water availabil- model under unsteady flow circumstances utilizing
ity, reservoir spillway design, floodplain regula- the simulated observed worst flood from CMIP6
tion, the impact of future urbanization and sys- future climate change scenarios as flow data. When
tem operation. For runoff simulations, the curve GIS data (terrain data) are provided, the RAS-
number method was used to configure the HEC- Mapper component of the software is used to map
HMS model in this study (USACE, 1994, 2010) the inundation caused by the resultant flood. Two-
(Boughton, 1989); for transferring and process- dimensional modelling of the dam is carried out
ing, the SCS hydrograph method (McCuen, in the HEC-RAS model. Area-elevation-volume
1982) was used, and for recognizing flood rout- curve of the reservoir, spillway characteristics and
ing, the Muskingum method (Gill, 1978) was sluice gate information are also given in the dam
used. To estimate direct runoff from rainfall, in break modelling in the HEC-RAS model. The
this study, among all the loss models, the SCS- HEC-RAS model uses St. Venant’s momentum and
CN loss approach (Eqs. (1)–(2)) was chosen. The continuity equations on routing the inflow flood
HEC-HMS transform model simulates the direct hydrographs (Xiong and Frank, 2011). The HEC-
runoff from the excess precipitation and trans- RAS simulates the dam breach scenario for over-
forms that excess precipitation into the runoff. topping failure mode to comprehend the dynamics
The SCS Unit Hydrograph model was utilized of the dam break and flood routing along the river
in this study to convert excess rainfall to run- stretch on the downstream side. A regression anal-
off. The Muskingum routing method is used for ysis was performed in HEC-RAS to estimate the
determining the downstream end of a channel’s breach parameters. Because the dam break is com-
outflow hydrograph from the known upstream monly depicted as a trapezoidal-shaped channel,
hydrograph. the geometric characteristics account for the top
( )2 width, breach depth, side slope and channel bot-
P − Ia tom width. Many empirical equations are used to
Pa = ( (1)
account for various dam breach variables. The 2D
)
P − Ia + S
HEC-RAS model employs multiple methods, such
where Pa is the accumulated excess precipitation at as MacDonald and Langridge-Monopolis (1984);
a certain millimetre period, P denotes the collected Von Thun et  al. (1990); Froehlich (1995); Froe-
rainfall depth, Ia represents the initial abstraction hlich (2008) and Xu and Zhang (2009) for deter-
and S is the potential maximum retention given by mining the dam breach’s side slope, average width
Eq. (2). and formation time. However, literature shows
that the Froehlich (2008) dam breach parameter
25400
S= − 254 (2) estimation method is best for such earth-fill dams
CN
(Bharath et  al., 2021; Abdulrazzaq et  al., 2022).
CN is the SCS curve number that depends upon For instance, in the case of Basheer et  al. (2017),
soil type and land cover. multiple methods were used to estimate the breach
The HEC-HMS model parameters are cali- parameters of the Mosul Dam in Iraq and state that
brated using the observed daily stage-discharge the Froehlich method was the most appropriate.
data watershed model to achieve a close correlation Therefore, the Froehlich (2008) method was used
between the simulated and observed discharge val- in the present study. Manning’s coefficient of 0.032
ues for time-series simulation. Using daily stage- is chosen for dam break analysis by following the
discharge streamflow data, the HEC-HMS model study conducted by Parhi et al. (2012b). Parhi et al.
was manually adjusted during the calibration pro- (2012b) calibrated Manning’s roughness coefficient
cedure. The calibration period encompassed 10 (n) value using the observed stage-discharge data
years, from 2000 to 2010, while the validation of the Mahanadi River and determined that at n =
period spanned 5 years, from 2011 to 2015. 0.032, the maximum NSE was 84.65%.

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Study area and data collection Madhya Pradesh (130 k­ m2) are included in the catch-
ment region of the Mahanadi River, as well as more
The Mahanadi basin falls between northern latitudes significant portions of Chhattisgarh (74,970 k­ m2) and
of 19°21′ and 23°35′ and the eastern longitudes of Odisha (65,600 ­km2). Wintertime temperatures range
80°30′ and 86°50′. It is a significant peninsular river from 4 to 12 Celsius, while the summertime ranges
that drains 141,589.0 ­km2, or about 4.28% of India’s from 42 to 45 Celsius.
total land area, and spans throughout the Chhattis- The Hirakud Dam, established in 1957, is the
garh and Odisha states (Fig. 2). The Mahanadi River world’s longest multipurpose dam (Jena et al., 2014).
flows 851 km from its source to where it meets the It is used to control flooding, hydroelectric produc-
Gulf of Bengal. Orissa makes up 494 km of the riv- tion and for irrigation. The reservoir has an installed
er’s total length, while Chhattisgarh makes up 357 capacity of 347.5 MW power and a cultivable com-
km. The basin has a tropical monsoon climate. Mid- mand area of 235,477 ha. The maximum spillway
June marks the beginning of the southwest summer capacity of the Dam accounts for 42,450 ­m3/s, which
monsoon, which lasts through September. The 1572 is its design flood (Parhi et al. 2012a). Fourteen pri-
mm of yearly rainfall in the summer monsoon repre- mary tributaries feed into the Mahanadi River; twelve
sents around 70% of the total rainfall. The Mahanadi meet upstream of the Hirakud dam, and the remaining
River has an average annual discharge of roughly two are downstream of the reservoir. Hirakud dam
1895 ­m3/s, with summer monsoon season highs of consists of a 4800-m-long main dam of earth, con-
6352 ­m3/s and winter lows of at least 759 ­m3/s (Octo- crete and masonry portion flanked by earthen dykes
ber to May). The Mahanadi River basin’s yearly run- on both left and right sides. The maximum height
off averages 66.9 billion cubic metres (BCM). Parts of the Dam in the concrete portion is 61 m and that
of Jharkhand (650 ­km2), Maharashtra (250 ­km2) and in the earth portion is 59.44 m. The provision of 64

Fig. 2  Index map of Mahanadi River Basin

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sluices of size (3.66 × 6.2) controlled by vertical slide Basin is downloaded from <https://zenodo.org/
gates operated from an operation gallery size 3.35 record/3874046#.ZCViTXZBy5c>. It is a bias-
in × 6.10 m along the body of the dam is a special corrected daily projection of precipitation obtained
feature of this project. There are 21 crest bays in the from 13 CMIP6-GCMs for 18 Indian sub-continen-
left spillway having 15.54 wide and 6.1-m-high radial tal river basins with 0.25 deg spatial resolution. The
gates. The salient features of the Hirakud Dam pro- USGS Earth Explorer <https://​earth​explo​rer.​usgs.​
ject are described in Table 1. The area-elevation-vol- gov/> was used for downloading the digital elevation
ume curve of the Hirakud reservoir is also illustrated model (DEM) tiles, and then, a DEM of the study
in Fig. 3. area was created in ArcGIS. The software used in
For 2001–2015, daily observed gridded pre- this study is HEC-HMS, obtained from the USACE
cipitation was taken from the India Meteorologi- website <https://​www.​hec.​usace.​army.​mil/​softw​are/​
cal Department (IMD). In the Water Resources hec-​hms/>. Geometric details of Hirakud Dam, spill-
Information System (WRIS) portal, IMD gener- way rating curve and surface area-elevation data of
ated a daily gridded precipitation at 0.25°. CMIP6 Hirakud reservoir are collected from Chief Engineer,
future precipitation data for the Mahanadi River Designs and Dam Safety, Bhubaneswar.

Table 1  Salient features of the Hirakud Dam (source: Office of Designs and Dam Safety, Bhubaneswar, Odisha)
Length of dam Reservoir details

The total length of the dam 4800 m Gross storage capacity 8136 ­Mm3
Earth-cum-rock fill dam 3651.5 m Dead storage capacity 2318 ­Mm3
Left earth dam 1353.3 m Live storage. Capacity 5818 ­Mm3
Right earth dam 2298.2 m Water spread area at F.R.L. 743 ­km2
Length of concrete and masonry dam 1148.5 m Water spread area at D.S.L. 274 ­km2
On left side 499.9 m Maximum fetch at F.R.L. 83.2 ­km2
On right side. 648.6 m Sluice gate details
Water level details Number of under sluices 64
Top of dam 195.68 m Size of each undersluices 3.658 m × 6.2 m
F.R.L./M. W.L. 192.024 m Sill of undersluices 155.448 m
Dead storage level 179.83 m No of crest gates 34
Size-of crest gates 15.54 m × 6.10 m
Crest level of spillway dam 185.928 m

Fig. 3  Area-elevation- 800 0
volume curve of Hirakud Reservoir area
700
Reservoir Volume 200
Reservoir area (km2)

600
Volume (Mm3)

400
500
400 600
300
800
200
1000
100
0 1200
179 181 183 185 187 189 191 193
Elevaon (m)

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Results and discussion periods at the Basantpur station, the HEC-HMS

model exhibited acceptable performance. The coeffi-
Calibration and validation of the HEC‑HMS model cient of determination (R2) values for the calibration
and validation periods were 0.764 and 0.858, respec-
As discussed in the “Rainfall-runoff simulation and tively. Figure  5 depicts the root mean square error
assessment of peak flood hydrographs using the HEC- (RMSE) and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values
HMS model” section, the HEC-HMS model param- for calibration and validation. Based on these metrics,
eters are calibrated using the observed daily stage- it can be concluded that the HEC-HMS model accu-
discharge data at Basantpur gauging station. Figure 4 rately captured the observed discharge patterns dur-
depicts the reproduction of the observed and simu- ing both the calibration and validation periods, indi-
lated daily inflow into Hirakud Reservoir during cali- cating a satisfactory agreement between simulated
bration and validation periods. Figure  5 also depicts and observed data. These results demonstrate that
a scatter diagram comparing the observed and simu- the model successfully simulates the hydrological
lated flow. During both the calibration and validation behaviour of the study area. During calibration, the

Fig. 4  Time-series plot 35000

of the reproduction of 30000 Calibraon Observed
simulated and observed
flow during calibration and 25000 Simulated
Discharge (m3 /s)

validation of the HEC-HMS 20000

model
15000

10000

5000

0
01-Jan-00 15-May-01 27-Sep-02 09-Feb-04 23-Jun-05 05-Nov-06 19-Mar-08 01-Aug-09 14-Dec-10
25000
Validaon
Observed
20000
Simulated
Discharge (m3 /s)

15000

10000

5000

0
01-Jan-11 28-Oct-11 23-Aug-12 19-Jun-13 15-Apr-14 09-Feb-15 06-Dec-15
Time (DD/MM/YYYY)

Fig. 5  Scattered plot Calibraon Validaon

between simulated and 10000 Discharge (m3 /s) 10000 Discharge (m3/s)
observed flow during cali-
bration and validation of the 8000 8000
HEC-HMS model
Simulated

6000 6000

4000 4000
R2=0.764 R2=0.858
RMSE=990.45 RMSE=774.47
2000 2000
NSE(%) = 64.06 NSE(%) = 80.37
IOA=91.98
0 0
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
Observed Observed

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Fig.  6  a Time-series plot 100000 0

of predicted inflow into

Discharge (m 3 /s)
80000 50

Rainfall (mm)
the Hirakud Reservoir for 100
SSP2-4.5 climate change 60000 Near-Future (2025-2050)
150
scenario in different future 40000
periods. b Time-series plot 200
of predicted inflow into 20000 250
the Hirakud Reservoir for 0 300
SSP3-7.0 climate change 24-12-24 01-02-29 12-03-33 20-04-37 29-05-41 07-07-45 15-08-49
scenario in different future 0
100000
periods. c Time-series plot 100

Discharge (m 3 /s)
80000
of predicted inflow into

Rainfall (mm)
Mid-Future (2051-2075) 200
the Hirakud Reservoir for 60000
SSP5-8.5 climate change 40000 300
scenario in different future
20000 400
periods
0 500
01-01-51 06-12-55 09-11-60 14-10-65 18-09-70 23-08-75
150000 0
125000 100
Discharge (m 3 /s)

Rainfall (mm)
100000 Far-Future (2076-2100) 200
75000 300
50000 400
25000 500
0 600
01-01-76 05-12-80 09-11-85 14-10-90 18-09-95 23-08-00
Date (dd/mm/yyyy)
a
100000 0
50
Discharge (m 3 /s)

80000 100

Rainfall (mm)
Near Future (2025-2050) 150
60000
200
40000 250
300
20000
350
0 400
05-12-24 14-12-30 22-12-36 31-12-42 08-01-49
100000 0
50
Discharge (m 3 /s)

80000 100

Rainfall (mm)
60000 Mid Future (2051-2075) 150
40000 200
250
20000 300
0 350
01-01-51 06-12-55 09-11-60 14-10-65 18-09-70 23-08-75
140000 0
120000 50
100
Discharge (m 3 /s)

100000
Rainfall (mm)

150
80000 Far Future (2076-2100) 200
250
60000 300
40000 350
400
20000 450
0 500
01-01-76 05-12-80 09-11-85 14-10-90 18-09-95 23-08-00
Day (dd/mm/yyyy)
b

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Fig. 6  (continued) 0
140000
120000 100

Discharge (m 3 /s)

Rainfall (mm)
100000
200
80000 Near-Future (2025-2050)
60000 300
40000
400
20000
0 500
05-12-24 09-11-29 14-10-34 18-09-39 22-08-44 27-07-49
100000 0
100

Discharge (m 3 /s)
80000

Rainfall (mm)
60000 Mid-Future (2051-2075) 200

40000 300

20000 400
0 500
01-01-51 06-12-55 09-11-60 14-10-65 18-09-70 23-08-75
0
180000
100
Discharge (m 3 /s)

150000

Rainfall (mm)
200
120000 Far-Future (2076-2100)
300
90000
60000 400
30000 500
0 600
01-01-76 05-12-80 09-11-85 14-10-90 18-09-95 23-08-00
Date (dd/mm/yyyy)
c

following optimized HEC-HMS model parameters Using the calibrated parameters of the HEC-HMS
were determined: CN = 78, k = 0.28 hr, x = 0.39 and model and climate change precipitation data, the model
Ia = 13.50 mm. is simulated for the near future (2025–2050), mid future
(2051–2075) and far future (2076–2021). Figure  6 a–c
Prediction of reservoir inflow based on different show the time-series plot of simulated flow into the Hira-
climate change scenarios kud reservoir in different future periods based on the
SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 climate change sce-
Based on three climate change scenarios, SSP2-4.5, narios. Figure 7 depicts the total yearly flow data for the
SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, the HEC-HMS model is simu- SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios from 2025
lated to predict future flow into the Hirakud reservoir. to 2100. In addition, Fig.  7 contains an average trend

Fig. 7  Year-wise total 2400

annual flow into the 2200 SSP2-4.5 SSP3-7.0 SSP5-8.5
Hirakud Reservoir based
Annual flow (×103 m3 /s)

2000
on SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and
SSP5-8.5 climate change 1800
scenarios 1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
Year

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Fig. 8  Predicted annual 120000

Annual Peak Discharge (m3/s)

peak discharge into the 105000 SSP2-4.5 SSP3-7.0 SSP5-8.5
Hirakud Reservoir
90000
75000
60000
45000
30000
15000
0

2028
2031
2034
2037
2040
2043
2046
2049

2064
2067
2070
2073
2076
2079
2082

2097
2025

2052
2055
2058
2061

2085

2100
2088
2091
2094
Year

line illustrating each scenario’s total annual flow data.

This trend line indicates that the total annual flux will
Table 2  Anticipated Peak flood value with the date of occur- increase steadily from 2025 to 2100. Under the SSP2-4.5
rence for different climate change scenarios in different future scenario, the near-future period is anticipated to have the
periods maximum annual total discharge into the Hirakud Reser-
Future periods Climate change Peak flow Date of peak voir, reaching 1,532,055.7 m ­ 3/s in the year 2032. In the
scenarios ­(m3/s) flow mid-future period, the maximum annual total discharge
Near future SSP2-4.5 48,137 July 15, 2030
is anticipated to be 1,750,042.2 m3/s in 2075. Similarly,
SSP3-7.0 66,957 July 16, 2025
the maximum total annual flow is projected to reach
SSP5-8.5 80,783 July 22, 2046
2,228,743.4 ­m3/s in 2098 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario in
Mid future SSP2-4.5 70,718 August 04,
the far-future period.
2060 In the case of the SSP3-7.0 scenario, the near-future
SSP3-7.0 53,628 July 12, 2063 period is projected to experience the highest annual total
SSP5-8.5 67,035 July 20, 2061 flow of 1,727,986.0 ­m3/s in the year 2032 (Fig. 7). Dur-
Far future SSP2-4.5 101,916 July 12, 2098 ing the mid-future period, the maximum total annual
SSP3-7.0 83,306 July 11, 2100 flow is anticipated to be 2,055,254 m ­ 3/s in the year
SSP5-8.5 114,524 August 02, 2071. Similarly, in the far-future period, the maximum
2095 total annual flow recorded under the SSP3-7.0 scenario
is 2,260,258 m ­ 3/s in 2088. According to the SSP5-8.5
120000 scenario, the near-future period is anticipated to experi-
SSP2-4.5 ence the maximum annual total discharge at 1,581,002
110000
SSP3-7.0 ­m3/s in 2032. In the mid-future period, the maximum
100000 total annual flow is anticipated to be 1,679,578 ­m3/s in
Peak flow (m 3 /s)

SSP5-8.5 2066. Similarly, in the far-future period, the maximum

90000
total annual flow recorded under the SSP5-8.5 sce-
80000 nario reaches 2,175,956 m ­ 3/s in the year 2084. Overall,
70000 among the three climate change scenarios considered
for the 2025–2100 period, the SSP3-7.0 scenario is
60000
projected to have the highest total annual discharge of
50000 2,260,258 ­m3/s in 2088.
40000
Selection of worst flood hydrographs in different
Near-future Mid-future Far-future
future periods
Fig. 9  Predicted peak discharge into Hirakud Reservoir based
on SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios
The time-series inflow into the Hirakud Reser-
during near-future, mid-future and far-future periods voir from 2025 to 2100 was forecasted using the

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70000 105000
46000
60000 Worst Case 90000
40000
Discharge (m3 /s)

50000 75000
34000 60000
40000
28000 30000 45000
22000 20000 30000 SSP2-4.5
SSP2-4.5 SSP2-4.5
16000 10000 Mid-future (2051-2075) 15000 Far-future (2076-2100)
Near-future (2025-2050)
10000 0 0
12-07-30 15-07-30 18-07-30 21-07-30 23-07-60 28-07-60 02-08-60 07-08-60 04-07-98 08-07-98 12-07-98 16-07-98
70000 85000
58000
60000
Discharge (m3 /s)

50000 70000
50000
40000 42000
55000
30000 34000
40000
20000 SSP3-7.0 26000 SSP3-7.0
SSP3-7.0
10000 Near-future (2025-2050) 18000 25000 Far-future (2076-2100)
Mid-future(2051-2075)
0 10000 10000
10-07-25 13-07-25 16-07-25 19-07-25 22-07-25 06-07-63 09-07-63 12-07-63 15-07-63
90000 06-07-00 09-07-00 12-07-00 15-07-00 18-07-00
70000 120000
80000 Worst Case
60000
Discharge (m3 /sec)

70000 105000 Worst Case

60000 50000 90000
50000 40000 75000
40000 60000
30000
30000 SSP5-8.5 45000
20000 30000 SSP5-8.5
20000 Near-future SSP5-8.5
10000 10000 Mid-future (2051-2075) 15000 Far-future (2076-2100)
(2025-2050)
0 0 0
12-07-46 17-07-46 22-07-46 27-07-46 01-08-46 11-07-61 15-07-61 19-07-61 23-07-61 27-07-61 23-07-95 27-07-95 01-08-95 05-08-95 10-08-95
Date (dd/mm/yyyy) Date (dd/mm/yyyy) Date (dd/mm/yyyy)

Fig. 10  Predicted peak flow hydrograph based on SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario during near-future,
mid-future and far-future periods

HEC-HMS model under several climate change sce- Fig. 8 to offer a thorough knowledge of the expected
narios, as stated in the “Prediction of reservoir inflow peak flood occurrences. In addition, an average trend
based on different climate change scenarios” section. line was drawn to show how the maximum daily peak
The peak flood events were chosen based on the time- flow has been growing over Time, following the same
series hydrographs for each future era and climate pattern as the total annual flow. The specifics of the
change scenario (Fig.  6a–c). The dam breach study predicted peak floods under various climate change
was then conducted on these peak flood events. The scenarios for different future periods are presented in
highest peak flood and its related hydrograph were Table 2 and Fig. 9.
chosen for each future period and climate change In the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the peak discharge for
scenario. The maximum daily peak flow data from the near-future period was found to be 48,137 ­m3/s on
2025 to 2100 under three climate change scenarios July 15, 2030, while the peak discharge for the mid-
(SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) were shown in future period was 70,718 ­m3/s on August 04, 2060.

Table 3  Dam breach Method Breach bottom width Side slope (Z) Breach devel-
parameters (m) opment time
(hrs)

MacDonald et al. (1984) 743 0.5 2.59

Froehlich (1995) 250 1.4 9.34
Froehlich (2008) 234 1 8.53
Von Thun and Gillete 77 0.5 0.49
Xu and Zhang 150 0.56 14.97

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◂Fig.  11  a Flood inundation mapping considering the dam hydrograph for the near future. The peak inundation
break during peak flood in the near-future period. b Flood hydrograph derived from the SSP2-4.5 scenario was
inundation mapping considering the dam break during peak
flood in the mid-future period. c Predicted flood inundation
chosen for the mid future. Similarly, the worst flood
mapping considering the dam break during peak flood in the hydrograph in the dam breach analysis for the far
far-future period future was the peak flood hydrograph derived from
the SSP8.0 scenario. Details of the Hirakud reservoir
were incorporated into the HEC-RAS model and the
Similarly, the SSP2-4.5 scenario has a peak discharge dam breach analysis, including the geometrical speci-
of 101,916 ­m3/s during the far-future period on July fications of the dam and reservoir (Table 1), the area-
12, 2098. According to the SSP3-7.0 scenario, a elevation-volume data (Fig. 3) and information about
peak discharge of 66,957 ­m3/s was observed on July the spillway. The estimation of dam breach parame-
16, 2025, and a peak discharge of 53,628 ­m3/s was ters, such as the breach bottom width, side slope and
observed on July 12, 2063. On July 11, 2100, a peak breach formation time, was performed as presented
discharge of 83,306 m ­ 3/s was anticipated in the far- in Table  3. This study utilized the Froehlich (2008)
future period. The near-future shows a peak discharge estimation method of dam breach parameters, as
of 80,783 m ­ 3/s on July 22, 2046, based on the SSP5- explained in the “Dam break analysis using the HEC-
8.5 scenario. A peak discharge of 67,035 m ­ 3/s is pre- RAS model” section. The breach bottom breadth was
dicted for the mid-future on July 20, 2061, whereas a estimated to be 234 m, and the breach development
peak discharge of 114,524 m ­ 3/s is predicted for the far time was calculated to be 8.53 h using the Froehlich
future on August 02, 2095. (2008) method.
Figure  10 shows the flood hydrographs corre- The Hirakud Dam breach study provided valu-
sponding to these peak floods in the near, medium able insights into the predicted flood inundation
and long term under the three climate change sce- mapping and depth variation for future periods. The
narios. The worst flood occurrences were chosen by study results are depicted in Fig. 11a–c, which show
considering the maximum peak flood values among the anticipated flood depths and water surface eleva-
the three climate change scenarios in each future tions downstream of the dam. In the near future, the
period. Figures 9 and 10 show that a peak discharge worst flood scenario predicted a post-dam breach
of 80,783 ­ m3/s was predicted as the worst flood flow depth varying 0–31 m, with mean sea level
occurrence in the near future under the SSP5-8.5 cli- (MSL) water surface elevations between 6 and 197
mate change scenario. The worst flood comes in the m. Similarly, the dam breach study indicated flow
mid future under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, with a peak depths of 0–29 m and water levels from MSL from
discharge of 70,718 ­m3/s. The worst flood occurrence 6 to 197 m for the mid-future period. The analysis
in the far future, with a peak discharge of 114,524.7 predicted flow depths between 0 and 39 m and water
­m3/s, is anticipated in the SSP5-8.5 scenario. These levels from MSL varying 6–198 m for the period in
peak flood hydrographs (Fig.  10) were employed in the far future. Figure  12 provides additional infor-
the study of dam breaches, offering essential insights mation by displaying the flood inundation area and
into the possible implications of dam breaches under maximum flow depth for every future period. It was
various future climate change scenarios. estimated that the inundation area corresponding to
the worst flood hydrograph would be 3651.52 ­km2,
Dam break analysis using the HEC‑RAS model 2931.46 ­km2 and 4207.6 k­ m2 for the near-future,
mid-future and far-future periods, respectively.
The dam breach analysis was performed using the Similarly, the maximum flow depth associated
HEC-RAS model for each of the worst flood scenar- with the worst flood hydrograph was determined to be
ios mentioned in the “Selection of worst flood hydro- 31 m, 29 m and 39 m for the respective future peri-
graphs in different future periods” section. Inflow ods. These numerical results emphasize the potential
inundation hydrographs from the near future, mid- magnitude of flooding and flow depths downstream
dle future and far future were utilized. Specifically, of the Hirakud Dam under various future scenarios.
the peak flood hydrograph derived from the SSP5- This information is essential for devising effective
8.5 climate scenario was selected as the worst flood

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 1173   Page 14 of 18 Environ Monit Assess (2023) 195:1173

5000 0 These findings concerning the outflow hydro-

graphs are essential for comprehending the dynamics
20
Flood Inundaon Area (km 2 )

4500 following a dam failure and play a significant role in

Maximum Flow Depth (m)

40 flood control and disaster management planning. In
4000
addition, the inundation mapping of the study reveals
60
the potential for substantial damage to 105 villages in
80 the far future, 78 villages in the mid future and 94 vil-
3500
lages in the near future (Fig. 11a–c). The inundation
100 area also includes multiple towns, such as Sambal-
3000 pur, Cuttack, Maneswar, Binka, Sonepur, Baunsuni,
120
Baudhgarh, Narsinghpur, Chaudwar and Salipur in
2500 140 all future periods. The consequences of a dam breach
Near-future Mid-future Far-future emphasize the need for adequate flood control and
disaster preparedness in these regions.
Fig. 12  Predicted values of flood inundation area and maxi-
mum flow depth for different future periods
Potential flood mitigation measures

Following a thorough examination of the hydrologi-

flood control measures, disaster preparedness plans cal behaviour and flood hazards in the vicinity of the
and safeguarding flood-prone regions. Hirakud Reservoir, several prospective flood mitiga-
The Hirakud Dam breach study examines the out- tion strategies are revealed as essential for defend-
flow hydrographs at various downstream locations. ing the area against growing flood dangers. First and
Figure  13 depicts the projected outflow hydrographs foremost, setting reliable early warning systems can
at 100 km, 200 km, 300 km and 400 km downstream send timely signals to communities that are at risk,
of the Dam, corresponding to the worst inunda- enabling them to prepare and evacuate efficiently.
tion hydrographs in various future periods. In addi- These systems can provide precise and timely flood
tion, Fig.  13 depicts the flow depth hydrographs at predictions, ensuring communities have enough time
various downstream locations, which correspond to to prepare appropriately. These systems can integrate
the worst flood hydrographs for various future peri- real-time data from rainfall gauges, river sensors and
ods. The peak flood (Qp) and duration to peak flood meteorological forecasts.
(Tp) at multiple downstream locations are detailed in Levees, dams and floodwalls around significant
Table 4. For the near future, the predicted Qp values watercourses can be built and reinforced to lessen the
for the outflow hydrographs at 100 km, 200 km, 300 effects of floodwaters. These physical barriers can
km and 400 km downstream of the Hirakud Dam are direct floodwaters away from populated areas and
74,824 ­m3/s, 69,634 ­m3/s, 66,923 ­m3/s and 64,271 crucial infrastructure. Furthermore, it is essential to
­m3/s, respectively. The corresponding Tp values for establish floodplain zoning to carefully limit growth
the same locations are 16 h, 25 h, 53 h and 75 h. Sim- in high-risk locations. By preserving open spaces in
ilarly, for the mid-future period, the analysis reveals flood-prone regions, the potential damage from flood
Qp values of 70,164 m ­ 3/s, 67,927 m
­ 3/s, 66,884 m
­ 3/s events can be reduced, and communities can avoid
and 66,075 m ­ 3/s at distances of 100 km, 200 km, the disastrous effects of flooding. Enhancing flood
300 km and 400 km, respectively, downstream of the resilience requires the application of nature-based
Dam. These locations have Tp values of 8 h, 30 h, 55 solutions like afforestation and wetland restoration.
h and 80 h. In the far future, the outflow hydrographs Increased soil absorption from afforestation lowers
for the worst floods indicate Qp values of 113,807 runoff and the danger of flash floods. Conversely,
­m3/s, 108,744 ­m3/s, 106,770 ­m3/s and 105,672 ­m3/s at wetland restoration offers organic water storage
100 km, 200 km, 300 km and 400 km downstream of spaces that buffer during intense precipitation and
the Hirakud Dam, respectively. These locations have flooding. These strategies improve biodiversity, help
Tp values of 10 h, 33 h, 56 h and 76 h. the ecosystem and reduce flood intensity.

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80000 80000 120000

70000 Near-future 70000 Mid-future Far-future
100000
60000 60000
80000
Flow (m3/s)

50000 50000
40000 40000 60000
30000 30000
40000
20000 20000
20000
10000 10000
0 0 0
16-07-46 19-07-46 22-07-46 25-07-46 28-07-46 21-07-60 26-07-60 31-07-60 05-08-60 10-08-60 23-07-95 27-07-95 31-07-95 04-08-95 08-08-95
40 35 30
35 Near-future 30 Mid-future Far-future
25
30 25
Flow Depth (m)

20
25 20
20 15
15
15 10
10
10
5 5
5
0 0 0
16-07-46 19-07-46 22-07-46 25-07-46 28-07-46 21-07-60 26-07-60 31-07-60 05-08-60 10-08-60 23-07-95 27-07-95 31-07-95 04-08-95 08-08-95
Date (DD/MM/YYYY) Date (DD/MM/YYYY) Date (DD/MM/YYYY)
100km 200km 300km 400km

Fig. 13  Outflow stage-discharge hydrographs after the dam break at 100 km, 200 km, 300 km and 400 km downstream of Hirakud
Dam in different future periods

In addition to these steps, modernizing and updat- initiatives are crucial to ensuring that communi-
ing the architecture of the dam with increased spill- ties know the threats posed by flooding and have the
way capacity and flood control systems can be information necessary to respond appropriately.
extremely important for managing peak flow dis- Ultimately, the Hirakud Reservoir region needs
charge during periods of severe rainfall. Downstream a multifaceted approach to flood mitigation. The
flooding can be prevented to a great extent by effec- area can increase its resistance to flood occurrences,
tively controlling the reservoir’s water outflow. A reduce damage and guarantee the safety and well-
comprehensive flood control strategy must be devel- being of its residents by integrating cutting-edge tech-
oped, funded and implemented through collabora- nology, infrastructure upgrades and natural remedies.
tive efforts between government organizations, local
communities and relevant stakeholders. Input from
numerous fields, including urban planning, water
resource management and disaster response, should Conclusions
be incorporated into this approach, integrating engi-
neering solutions with sustainable land use practices. The hydrological behaviour and flood risks of the
Campaigns for public awareness and educational Hirakud Reservoir are thoroughly examined in

Table 4  Predicted peak Near future Mid future Far future

flood (Qp) and time to
peak flow (Tp) of outflow Distance (km) Qp ­(m3/s) Tp (hr) Qp (hr) Tp (hr) Qp (hr) Tp (hr)
hydrographs downstream of
Hirakud Dam in different 100 74,824 16 70,164 8 113,807 10
future periods 200 69,634 25 67,927 30 108,744 33
300 66,923 53 66,884 55 106,770 56
400 64,271 75 66,075 80 105,672 76

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 1173   Page 16 of 18 Environ Monit Assess (2023) 195:1173

this manuscript while considering several climate Acknowledgements  We acknowledge the India Meteorologi-
change scenarios. The HEC-HMS model’s perfor- cal Department (IMD), Pune and Central Water Commission
(CWC), New Delhi, for obtaining the Daily rainfall and stage-
mance in correctly modelling observed discharge discharge data, respectively, of Mahanadi River Basin through
patterns was shown through calibration and valida- the website <https://indiawris.gov.in/wris/#/home>. The
tion, demonstrating a strong connection between authors would like to acknowledge the USGS for downloading
simulated and observed data. The calibration estab- the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) tiles through the website
<https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/> and USACE for download-
lished the model’s optimized parameters, resulting ing the HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS software through the web-
in accurate future flow projections. The total annual site <https://​www.​hec.​usace.​army.​mil/​softw​are/> The authors
flow into the Hirakud Reservoir is anticipated to also acknowledge the Office of Designs and Dam Safety, Bhu-
rise steadily from 2025 to 2100 based on the esti- baneswar, for providing the required data of Hirakud Dam.
mates of the HEC-HMS model under various cli-
Author contribution  Execution and manuscript draft prepa-
mate change scenarios. The most significant sce- ration: Roniki Anjaneyulu
nario was SSP3-7.0, which forecasted the highest Supervision and preparation of final manuscript: Ratnakar
annual total discharge of 2,260,258 ­m3/s in 2088. Swain
For each future time and scenario, the study also Editing and suggestions on the overall research work:
Mukunda Dev Behera
determined the peak flood events, which is essen-
tial information for comprehending the dynamics Data availability  All data generated or analyzed during this
of flood events. study are included in this published article.
The probable inundation mapping and depth varia-
tions downstream of the Hirakud Dam were also iden- Declarations 
tified by the dam breach analysis using the HEC-RAS All authors have read, understood and have complied as applica-
model. The worst flood scenarios were emphasized in ble with the statement on “Ethical responsibilities of Authors”
as found in the Instructions for Authors.
the study, along with the accompanying flood depths,
which in the far-future timeframe might reach up to Ethics approval and consent to participate  Not applicable.
39 m. The projected flood inundation mapping high-
lighted the dangers and potential harm from a dam Consent for publication  Not applicable.
breach by highlighting vulnerable villages and towns.
Following a dam breach, the outflow hydrographs Competing interests  The authors declare no competing inter-
revealed the dynamic features of flood hydrographs, ests.
such as peak flood values and the time of peak flood
at different downstream locations. In order to build
effective mitigation strategies and to better under- References
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