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Case Study 13.2

Katie is an intern at a large advertising firm in Chicago who is tasked with analyzing a client's sales data to show that the firm's recent ad campaign was effective, despite the client's claims that it had no impact on sales. Upon reviewing the data, Katie finds no evidence that the campaign generally increased sales. However, she notices that sales in one demographic increased around hockey playoff games in town. Katie realizes she could potentially manipulate the data to show an overall increase by smoothing the numbers, which may convince the client to continue working with the firm.

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Jeffrey Mwendwa
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6 views2 pages

Case Study 13.2

Katie is an intern at a large advertising firm in Chicago who is tasked with analyzing a client's sales data to show that the firm's recent ad campaign was effective, despite the client's claims that it had no impact on sales. Upon reviewing the data, Katie finds no evidence that the campaign generally increased sales. However, she notices that sales in one demographic increased around hockey playoff games in town. Katie realizes she could potentially manipulate the data to show an overall increase by smoothing the numbers, which may convince the client to continue working with the firm.

Uploaded by

Jeffrey Mwendwa
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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CASE STUDY 13.

2 ETHICAL FORECASTING: IF YOU TORTURE THE NUMBERS LONG ENOUGH,


THEY CAN TELL YOU ANYTHING!

Katie is a brand-new intern working for one of the biggest advertising firms in the Midwest,
headquartered in Chicago. Getting this internship was a dream come true for her, as she grew
up in the Chicago area and has always wanted to work in advertising. Additionally, the hiring
rate for productive interns is very high, so this opportunity could lead to a full-time position. As
a result, she is highly motivated to do a good job, get noticed, and, hopefully, receive a job
offer.

Katie is the junior member of an advertising team that is meeting with a long-term client. The
meeting is not going well; in fact, the client has serious reservations about continuing its
relationship with the firm as a result of a recently failed advertising campaign the firm
developed for the client. The client claims that the advertising was expensive and, in the words
of its senior manager, "didn't move the needle one bit. We are still at the same market share
rate, so we're out millions with nothing to show for it." The meeting breaks for lunch, with the
customer threatening to "end the relationship, unless you can give us something." As the rest
of the team leaves the room, Katie's boss signals her to stay back.

Boss: "Katie, I hear that you're pretty good with the statistical packages we use for customer
data."

Katie: "Yes, l've been using them for years now."

Boss: "OK, I need you to run me some numbers to show that our ads are really working. Their
flat sales could be a result of other issues, an industrywide pattern, or something else. Just find
me something that I can use when they get back from lunch."

Katie returns to her desk and works through her lunch break. The results generally are not
good. To her best knowledge, the client's sales really have not moved at all as a result of the
advertising campaign. Nevertheless, she notices an interesting phenomenon. In the men's age
18-35 demographic, she finds a big uptick in sales in the weeks right after the hockey playoff
games were held in town. Although it is apparent to her that these sales increases are
specifically related to those special events, she is pretty sure that she can smooth the data to
show a general increase in sales. In fact, aggregating these data across all demographic groups
could show some sales improvement that she could link to the advertising campaign, especially
if no one on the client's team is good with statistical models.

Katie returns to the conference room 5 minutes before the client returns from lunch and meets
up with her frantic boss.

Boss: "Well, what did you find for us?"

Katie: ...

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