Forecasting exercise

Exercises:

Starting exercise - in this exercise use the formulas to forecast future demand
Population - change the forecasting parameters to find the optimum forecast
Manufacturing jobs - change the forecasting parameters to find the optimum forecast
Car production - change the forecasting parameters to find the optimum forecast
Holidays - change the forecasting parameters to find the optimum forecast
Food Index - change the forecasting parameters to find the optimum forecast

Data:

Oil
Beer production
Marriages
Births
Coal production
mum forecast
mum forecast
mum forecast
mum forecast
mum forecast
Forecasting exercise
1. This exercise will introduce you to the different forecasting techniques.
2. Each exercise contains the same data set.
3. Use the equations to help forecast demand.
4. The Result row will tell you if your answer is correct or not.
5. Then calculate the error measures.
6. The red triangles in the corner of the cells will reveal the formula required if help is required.
7. The cells shaded in blue are the initial values needed to start the forecasting method, hover your mouse over the cell to see how these values were calcu

900

800

700

600
Demand or Forecast

500
Demand
Three month mov-
400 ing average
Exponential smooth-
300 ing
Holt's linear method
Holt-Winters addi-
200 tive
Holt-Winters mul-
100 tiplicative
Regression
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Period
 900

800

700

600
Demand or Forecast

500
Demand
Three month mov-
400 ing average
Exponential smooth-
300 ing
Holt's linear method
Holt-Winters addi-
200 tive
Holt-Winters mul-
100 tiplicative
Regression
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Period

Exercise 1
Use a three month moving average to forecast demand

Period 1 2 3 4 5
Demand (D) 362 385 432 341 382
Forecast (F)
Result
Error
Absolute error
Squared error
Absolute percentage error
Exercise 2
Use exponential smoothing to forecast demand, using an alpha factor of 0.5

Ft 1 Dt  (1)Ft Using an alphas of 0.5: Ft1 0.5*Dt (10.5)Ft

Period (t) 1 2 3 4 5
Demand (D) 362 385 432 341 382
Forecast (F) 362
Result
Error
Absolute error
Squared error
Absolute percentage error

Exercise 3
Use Holt's linear method to forecast demand, using an alpha factor of 0.065 and a beta factor of 0.334
L t   D t  (1   )( L t 1  bt 1 ) Using an alpha of 0.065 and beta of 0.334: Lt  0 .065 * D t  (1 
bt   ( L t  L t 1 )  (1   ) bt 1 bt  0 .334 ( Lt  Lt 1 )
Ft  m  L t  bt m Ft  m  Lt  bt m

Period (t) 1 2 3 4 5
Demand (D) 362 385 432 341 382
 Level: L 385
Trend: b 23
Forecast (F)
Result
Error
Absolute error
Squared error
Absolute percentage error

Exercise 4
Use Holt-Winters multiplicative method for a quarterly season (four periods), alpha of 0.822, beta 0.055 and gamma 0.00)

Dt Using an alpha of 0.822, beta of 0.055 and a Dt

Lt    (1   )( L t 1  b t 1 ) gamma of 0: Lt  0 .822  (1  0 .
S ts S ts
b t   ( L t  L t 1 )  (1   ) b t 1 bt  0 .055 ( Lt  Lt 1 )  (
Dt Dt
St    (1   ) S t  s St  0  (1  0 ) S t  s
Lt Lt
Ft  m  ( L t  bt m ) S t  s  m Ft  m  ( Lt  bt m ) S t  s  m
Year 1 2
Quarter 1 2 3 4 1
Period (t) 1 2 3 4 5
Demand (D) 362 385 432 341 382
Level: L 380
Trend: b 9.75
Season: S 0.95 1.01 1.14 0.90
Due to the need for two seasons data to calculate the trend (b), the first true forecast occurs at period 9 - Forecast (F)
Result
Error
Absolute error
 Squared error
Absolute percentage error

Exercise 5
Use Holt-Winters additive method for a quarterly season (four periods), alpha of 0.822, beta 0.055 and gamma 0.00)

Lt (Dt  St  s)  (1)(Lt1 bt1) Using an alpha of 0.822, beta of 0.055 and a

gamma of 0: Lt 0.822 *(Dt S t  s)
bt  (Lt  Lt1)  (1 )bt1 bt 0.055*(Lt Lt1) 
St   (Dt  Lt)  (1 )Sts St 0*(D t Lt) (10
Ftm  Lt bt m Stsm Ftm L t b t mS t s

Year 1 2
Quarter 1 2 3 4 1
Period (t) 1 2 3 4 5
Demand (D) 362 385 432 341 382
Level: L 380
Trend: b 9.75
Season: S -18.00 5.00 52.00 -39.00
Forecast (F)
Result
Error
Absolute error
Squared error
Absolute percentage error
Exercise 6
Use simple regression from the first eight values to forecast going forward

N  XY  ( X )(  Y ) ( Y  b( X ) y  a  bx
b a
N  X  ( X )
2 2
N
b = slope of regression line ΣX = sum of the first variables
a = intercept point of the regression line ΣY = sum of the second variables
N = number of values ΣXY = sum of the product of the variables
X = first variables ΣX^2 = sum of the square of the first variables
Y = second variables

Period (x) 1 2 3 4 5
Demand (y) 362 385 432 341 382
(xy)
(x^2)
(y^2)
Calculate the intercept and slope of the regression line:
Σx
Σy
Σxy
Σx^2
Σy^2
b
a
r
 1 2 3 4 5
Demand 362 385 432 341 382
Three month moving average 0 0
Exponential smoothing 0 0 0 0
Holt's linear method 0 0 0
Holt-Winters additive 0
Holt-Winters multiplicative 0
Regression
ow these values were calculated.
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
409 498 387 473 513 582 474 544 582 681 557 628 707 773 592
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
409 498 387 473 513 582 474 544 582 681 557 628 707 773 592

 0 .065 * D t  (1  0 .065 )( Lt 1  bt 1 )
 0 .334 ( Lt  Lt 1 )  (1  0 .334 ) bt 1
m  Lt  bt m

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
409 498 387 473 513 582 474 544 582 681 557 628 707 773 592
 Dt
.822  (1  0 .822 )( Lt 1  bt 1 )
S ts
055 ( Lt  Lt 1 )  (1  0 .055 ) bt 1
Dt
 (1  0 ) S t  s
Lt
( L t  bt m ) S t  s  m
2 3 4 5
2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
409 498 387 473 513 582 474 544 582 681 557 628 707 773 592
0.822 *(Dt S t  s) (10.822)* (Lt1 bt1)
0.055*(Lt Lt1) (10.055)b t-1
0*(D t Lt) (10)S ts
m L t b t mS t sm

2 3 4 5
2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
409 498 387 473 513 582 474 544 582 681 557 628 707 773 592
 N  XY   X Y
r
N  X 2

  X  N Y 2  Y 
2 2


6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
409 498 387 473 513 582 474 544 582 681 557 628 707 773 592

437.64286 446.11905 454.59524 463.07143 471.54762 480.02381 488.5 496.97619 505.45238 513.92857 522.40476 530.88095
Forecast (F) or (y)
Result
Error
Absolute error
Squared error
Absolute percentage error
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
409 498 387 473 513 582 474 544 582 681 557 628 707 773 592
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
 21 22 23 24
627 725 854 661
 21 22 23 24
627 725 854 661

21 22 23 24
627 725 854 661
 6
1 2 3 4
21 22 23 24
627 725 854 661
 6
1 2 3 4
21 22 23 24
627 725 854 661
 21 22 23 24
627 725 854 661

539.35714 547.83333 556.30952 564.78571

0 0 0 0
 21 22 23 24
627 725 854 661
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
World population (1950 - 2011)
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2008 revision population database

8000000

7000000

6000000

5000000

4000000

3000000

2000000

Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

1000000
World population 2529346 2763453 3023358 3331670 3685777 4061317 4437609
Moving average 2772052 3039494 3346935 3692921
0
Exponential smoothing 2529346 2646400 2834879 3083274 3384526 3722921
5 0 5 5 60 65 70 75 80 85
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
Holt's linear method 2997560 3251016 3498566 3757106
Regression World population Moving average Exponential
0 smoothing
0 0 Holt's linear me

Exercise 1: Exponential smoothing

Change the alpha factor below to values between 0 and 1. Try to find the optimum alpha factor b

α = 0.5

Mean absolute error = 663,226

Mean squared error = 475,851,706,239

Mean percentage error = 14.04%

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6
World Population (thousands) 2529346 2763453 3023358 3331670 3685777 4061317
Forecast 2529346 2529346 2646400 2834879 3083274 3384526
Error 234107 376959 496791 602503 676791
Absolute error 234107 376958.5 496791.25 602502.63 676791.31
Squared error 5.481E+10 1.421E+11 2.468E+11 3.63E+11 4.58E+11
 Absolute percentage error 8% 12% 15% 16% 17%

Exercise 2: Holt's linear method

Change the alpha and beta factors below to values between 0 and 1. Try to optimise the smooth

α = 0.5

β = 0.5

Mean absolute error = 492,683

Mean squared error = 329,020,397,110

Mean percentage error = 9.06%

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6
Demand 2529346 2763453 3023358 3331670 3685777 4061317
L(t) 2763453 3010459 3256258 3510734 3776880
b(t) 234107 240557 242308 246372 252976
Forecast 2997560 3251016 3498566 3757106
Error 25,798 80,655 187,211 304,211
Absolute error 25,798 80,655 187,211 304,211
Squared error 7E+08 7E+09 4E+10 9E+10
Absolute percentage error 1% 2% 5% 7%

Exercise 3: Simple regression

N  XY  ( X )(  Y ) ( Y  b( X )
b
a y a
N  X 2  ( X ) 2
N
b = slope of regression line ΣX = sum of the first variables
a = intercept point of the regression line ΣY = sum of the second variables
N = number of values ΣXY = sum of the product of the vari
X = first variables ΣX^2 = sum of the square of the first
Y = second variables

Period (x) 1 2 3 4 5 6
Demand (y) 2529346 2763453 3023358 3331670 3685777 4061317
(xy)
(x^2)
 (y^2)
Calculate the intercept and slope of the
regression line: Forecast (F)

Σx Error
Σy Absolute error
Σxy Squared error
Σx^2 Absolute percentage error
Σy^2
b
a 361.35714
r

Mean absolute error = #DIV/0!

Mean squared error = #DIV/0!
Mean percentage error = #DIV/0!
 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
4846247 5290452 5713073 6115367 6512276 6908688
4061568 4448391 4858103 5283257 5706297 6113572

4080265 4463256 4876854 5294964 5705165 6108721

8 5 90 95 00 05 10
19 19 19 20 20 20
4029856 4318189 4625805 4956729 5310034 5684007
Holt's linear
0 method0 0 Regression0 0 0

imum alpha factor by monitoring the mean errors.

7 8 9 10 11 12 13
4437609 4846247 5290452 5713073 6115367 6512276 6908688
3722921 4080265 4463256 4876854 5294964 5705165 6108721
714688 765982 827196 836219 820403 807111 799967
714687.66 765981.83 827195.91 836219 820403.48 807110.74 799967.37
5.108E+11 5.867E+11 6.843E+11 6.993E+11 6.731E+11 6.514E+11 6.399E+11
 16% 16% 16% 15% 13% 12% 12%

optimise the smoothing factors by monitoring the mean errors.

7 8 9 10 11 12 13
4437609 4846247 5290452 5713073 6115367 6512276 6908688
4056360 4352512 4669007 5005892 5362381 5737845 6131483
261829 273293 287722 304142 321626 339608 357654
4029856 4318189 4625805 4956729 5310034 5684007 6077453
407,753 528,058 664,647 756,344 805,333 828,269 831,235
407,753 528,058 664,647 756,344 805,333 828,269 831,235
2E+11 3E+11 4E+11 6E+11 6E+11 7E+11 7E+11
9% 11% 13% 13% 13% 13% 12%

N  XY   X Y
r
y  a  bx N  X 2

  X  N Y 2  Y 
2 2

f the first variables
f the second variables
of the product of the variables
m of the square of the first variables

7 8 9 10 11 12 13
4437609 4846247 5290452 5713073 6115367 6512276 6908688
Manufacturing employment
Source: Office for National Statistics

4000

3500
Manufacturing Employment ( thousands)

3000
2000 2 2000 32000 4 2001 1 2001 2 2001 3 2001 4 2002 1
3742 3705 3667 3638 3586 3532 3474 3431

2500

2000
2000
Time 2000 Q3 2000 Q4 2001 Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3 2001 Q4
Q2
Manufacturing employment
('000s) 3742 3705 3667 3638 3586 3532 3474
Moving1500
average 3704.667 3670 3630.333 3585.33
Exponential smoothing
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q 3742
1 Q2 Q3 Q3724
4 Q1 Q2 3695
Q3 Q4 Q3667
1 Q2 Q3 3626 Q4 Q1 Q3579
2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
0 0 00 00 01 01 01 01 02 02 02 02 03 03 03 03 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07
Holt's linear
2 0 method
2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3668
2 0 2 0 3630
2 0 2 0 2 0 3594
2 0 2 0 3556
20 20 20 20 20 20 20
RegressionManufacturing employment ('000s) Moving average 0 0
Exponential 0
smoothing Holt

Exercise 1: Exponential smoothing

Change the alpha factor below to values between 0 and 1. Try to find the optimum alpha factor b

α = 0.5

Mean absolute error = 65

Mean squared error = 5,072

Mean percentage error = 2.21%

Time 2000 Q2 2000 Q3 2000 Q4 2001 Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3

Manufacturing employment ('000s)

3742 3705 3667 3638 3586 3532
 Forecast 3742 3742 3724 3695 3667 3626
Error -37 -57 -57 -81 -94
Absolute error 37 56.5 57.25 80.625 94.3125
Squared error 1369 3192.25 3277.5625 6500.3906 8894.848
Absolute percentage error 1% 2% 2% 2% 3%

Exercise 2: Holt's linear method

Change the alpha and beta factors below to values between 0 and 1. Try to optimise the smooth

α = 0.5

β = 0.5

Mean absolute error = 33

Mean squared error = 1,415

Mean percentage error = 0.98%

Time 2000 Q2 2000 Q3 2000 Q4 2001 Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3

Manufacturing employment ('000s) 3742 3705 3667 3638 3586 3532

L(t) 3705 3668 3631 3593 3554
b(t) -37 -37 -37 -37 -38
Forecast 3668 3630 3594 3556
Error - 1 8 - 8 - 24
Absolute error 1 8 8 24
Squared error 1E+00 6E+01 6E+01 6E+02
Absolute percentage error 0% 0% 0% 1%

Exercise 3: Simple regression

N  XY  ( X )(  Y ) ( Y  b( X )
b a
N  X 2  ( X ) 2 N
b = slope of regression line ΣX = sum of the first variables
a = intercept point of the regression line ΣY = sum of the second variables
N = number of values ΣXY = sum of the product of the variabl
X = first variables ΣX^2 = sum of the square of the first va
Y = second variables
 Time 2000 Q2 2000 Q3 2000 Q4 2001 Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6
Manufacturing employment ('000s) 3742 3705 3667 3638 3586 3532
(xy)
(x^2)
(y^2)
Calculate the intercept and slope of the
regression line:
Σx
Σy
Σxy
Σx^2 Absolute percentage erro
Σy^2
b
a 361.35714
r

Mean absolute error = #DIV/0!

Mean squared error = #DIV/0!
Mean percentage error = #DIV/0!
 2002 2 2002 3 2002 4 2003 1 2003 2 2003 3 2003 4 2004 1 2004 2 2004 3
3383 3342 3299 3255 3201 3154 3113 3073 3038 2996

2002 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2003 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2004 Q1 2004 Q2

3431 3383 3342 3299 3255 3201 3154 3113 3073 3038
3530.667 3479 3429.333 3385.333 3341.333 3298.667 3251.667 3203.333 3156 3113.333
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 3527
Q1 Q2 Q3479
3 Q4 Q1 3431 Q2 Q3 Q43386Q1 Q2 3343
Q3 Q4 Q1 3299Q2 Q3 3250
Q4 Q1 Q2 3202 Q3 Q4 Q3157
1 3115
0 5 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3517
2 0 2 0 3475
2 0 2 0 2 0 3433
2 0 2 0 23389
0 2 0 2 0 3344
2 0 2 0 23298
0 2 0 2 0 3252
2 0 2 0 2 03204
2 0 2 0 3155 3105
ential smoothing0 0Holt's linear
0 method0 0Regression0 0 0 0 0

he optimum alpha factor by monitoring the mean errors.

2001 Q4 2002 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2003 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2004 Q1

3474 3431 3383 3342 3299 3255 3201 3154 3113 3073
 3579 3527 3479 3431 3386 3343 3299 3250 3202 3157
-105 -96 -96 -89 -87 -88 -98 -96 -89 -84
105.15625 95.578125 95.789063 88.894531 87.447266 87.723633 97.861816 95.930908 88.965454 84.482727
11057.837 9135.178 9175.5445 7902.2377 7647.0243 7695.4358 9576.9351 9202.7391 7914.852 7137.3312
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%

y to optimise the smoothing factors by monitoring the mean errors.

2001 Q4 2002 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2003 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2004 Q1

3474 3431 3383 3342 3299 3255 3201 3154 3113 3073
3514 3472 3429 3386 3341 3295 3248 3200 3152 3103
-39 -40 -41 -42 -43 -44 -45 -46 -47 -47
3517 3475 3433 3389 3344 3298 3252 3204 3155 3105
- 43 - 44 - 50 - 47 - 45 - 43 - 51 - 50 - 42 - 32
43 44 50 47 45 43 51 50 42 32
2E+03 2E+03 2E+03 2E+03 2E+03 2E+03 3E+03 2E+03 2E+03 1E+03
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1%

N  XY   X Y
r
y  a  bx N  X 2

  X  N Y 2  Y 
2 2

m of the first variables
m of the second variables
um of the product of the variables
sum of the square of the first variables
 2001 Q4 2002 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2003 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2004 Q1
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
3474 3431 3383 3342 3299 3255 3201 3154 3113 3073

Forecast (F)

Error
Absolute error
Squared error
Absolute percentage error
2004 4 2005 1 2005 2 2005 3 2005 4 2006 1 2006 2 2006 3 2006 4 2007 1
2961 2940 2895 2863 2833 2799 2780 2760 2755 2747

2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2005 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4

2996 2961 2940 2895 2863 2833 2799 2780 2760 2755
3074.667 3035.667 2998.333 2965.667 2932 2899.333 2863.667 2831.667 2804 2779.667
3077 3036 2999 2969 2932 2898 2865 2832 2806 2783
3056 3007 2958 2910 2865 2820 2777 2736 2697 2661
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2005 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3

3038 2996 2961 2940 2895 2863 2833 2799 2780 2760
 3115 3077 3036 2999 2969 2932 2898 2865 2832 2806
-77 -81 -75 -59 -74 -69 -65 -66 -52 -46
77.241364 80.620682 75.310341 58.65517 74.327585 69.163793 64.581896 66.290948 52.145474 46.072737
5966.2282 6499.6943 5671.6474 3440.429 5524.5899 4783.6302 4170.8213 4394.4898 2719.1505 2122.6971
3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%

2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2005 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3

3038 2996 2961 2940 2895 2863 2833 2799 2780 2760
3055 3006 2958 2912 2867 2823 2781 2740 2702 2668
-48 -48 -48 -47 -47 -46 -45 -43 -41 -39
3056 3007 2958 2910 2865 2820 2777 2736 2697 2661
- 18 - 11 3 30 30 43 56 63 83 99
18 11 3 30 30 43 56 63 83 99
3E+02 1E+02 9E+00 9E+02 9E+02 2E+03 3E+03 4E+03 7E+03 1E+04
1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4%
2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2005 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
3038 2996 2961 2940 2895 2863 2833 2799 2780 2760
2007 2 2007 3 2007 4 2008 1 2008 2 2008 3 2008 4 2009 1 2009 2 2009 3
2739 2721 2705 2670 2644 2610 2471 2497 2443 2428

2007 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2

2747 2739 2721 2705 2670 2644 2610 2471 2497 2443
2765 2754 2747 2735.667 2721.667 2698.667 2673 2641.333 2575 2526
2769 2758 2749 2735 2720 2695 2669 2640 2555 2526
2628 2600 2576 2557 2542 2530 2519 2510 2502 2485
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1

2755 2747 2739 2721 2705 2670 2644 2610 2471 2497
 2783 2769 2758 2749 2735 2720 2695 2669 2640 2555
-28 -22 -19 -28 -30 -50 -51 -59 -169 -58
28.036369 22.018184 19.009092 27.504546 29.752273 49.876137 50.938068 59.469034 168.73452 58.367259
786.03796 484.80044 361.34558 756.50005 885.19775 2487.629 2594.6868 3536.566 28471.337 3406.7369
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 7% 2%

2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1

2755 2747 2739 2721 2705 2670 2644 2610 2471 2497
2637 2610 2587 2568 2552 2539 2527 2517 2500 2485
-36 -33 -30 -26 -23 -20 -17 -15 -15 -15
2628 2600 2576 2557 2542 2530 2519 2510 2502 2485
127 147 163 164 163 140 125 100 - 31 12
127 147 163 164 163 140 125 100 31 12
2E+04 2E+04 3E+04 3E+04 3E+04 2E+04 2E+04 1E+04 1E+03 2E+02
5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 1% 0%
2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1
27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
2755 2747 2739 2721 2705 2670 2644 2610 2471 2497
2009 4 2010 1 2010 2 2010 3 2010 4 2011 1
2418 2374 2365 2346 2352 2339

2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1

2428 2418 2374 2365 2346 2339

2352
2470.333 2456 2429.667 2406.667 2385.667 2361.667 2354.333
2485 2456 2437 2406 2385 2366 2359
2470 2453 2435 2417 2397 2377 2356
0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1

2443 2428 2418 2374 2365 2346 2352 2339

 2526 2485 2456 2437 2406 2385 2366 2359
-83 -57 -38 -63 -41 -39 -14 -20
83.183629 56.591815 38.295907 63.147954 40.573977 39.286988 13.643494 19.821747
6919.5162 3202.6335 1466.5765 3987.6641 1646.2476 1543.4675 186.14493 392.90166
3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1%

2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1

2443 2428 2418 2374 2365 2346 2352 2339

2469 2451 2434 2414 2395 2375 2355 2337
-16 -16 -17 -18 -18 -19 -19 -19
2470 2453 2435 2417 2397 2377 2356 2336
- 27 - 25 - 17 - 43 - 32 - 31 - 4 3
27 25 17 43 32 31 4 3
7E+02 6E+02 3E+02 2E+03 1E+03 9E+02 1E+01 7E+00
1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0%
2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1
37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
2443 2428 2418 2374 2365 2346 2352 2339
Passenger car production
Source: Office for National Statistics

550000

500000

450000

400000

350000

Date 2000 Q1 2000 Q2 2000 Q3 2000 Q4 2001 Q1 2001 Q2

300000
Passenger car production 494311 433240 335106 378795 387100 372395
Moving average 420885.67 382380.33 367000.33
Exponential
494311 463776 399441 389118 388109
smoothing
250000
Holt's linear method 433240 298569 273134 293061

Holt-Winters
(multiplicative)
200000
Q 1Q 2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Holt-Winters0(additive)
0 00 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 3 0 3 0
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Regression
Passenger car production Moving average Exponential smoothing Holt's linear

Exercise 1: Exponential smoothing

Change the alpha factor below to values between 0 and 1. Try to find the optimum alpha factor by m

α = 0.5
 Mean absolute error = 31355

Mean squared error = 1713728070

Mean percentage error = 7.75%

Date 2000 Q1 2000 Q2 2000 Q3 2000 Q4 2001 Q1 2001 Q2

Passenger car production 494311 433240 335106 378795 387100 372395

Forecast 494311 494311 463776 399441 389118 388109

Error -61071 -128670 -20646 -2018 -15714
Absolute error 61071 128670 20646 2018 15714
Squared error 3.73E+09 1.6556E+10 426246993 4071819.52 246927832
Absolute percentage error 12% 28% 5% 1% 4%

Exercise 2: Holt's linear method

Change the alpha and beta factors below to values between 0 and 1. Try to optimise the smoothing

α = 0.5

β = 0.5

Mean absolute error = 41,208

Mean squared error = 2,623,844,914

Mean percentage error = 10.63%

Date 2000 Q1 2000 Q2 2000 Q3 2000 Q4 2001 Q1 2001 Q2

Passenger car production 494311 433240 335106 378795 387100 372395

L(t) 494311 384173 338682 330117 332728

b(t) -61071 -85605 -65548 -37056 -17223
Forecast 433240 298569 273134 293061
Error -98134 80227 113966 79334
Absolute error 98134 80227 113966 79334
Squared error 9630281956 6436291302 12988277648 6293948015
Absolute percentage error 29% 21% 29% 21%
Exercise 3: Holt-Winters Multiplicative Method (assume sea
Change the alpha,beta and gamma factors below to values between 0 and 1. Try to optimise the sm

α = 0.5

β = 0.5

γ = 0.5

Mean absolute error = 18,863

Mean squared error = 536,283,042

Mean percentage error = 4.79%

Year 1 2
Date 2000 Q1 2000 Q2 2000 Q3 2000 Q4 2001 Q1 2001 Q2

Passenger car production 494311 433240 335106 378795 387100 372395

Level: L 410363 361202 342347

Trend: b -9317.9375 -29239.34 -24047.35
Season: S 1.20 1.06 0.82 0.92 1.14 1.07
Forecast (F) 483087 350469
Error -95987 21926
Absolute error 95987 21926
Squared error 9213483262 480737999
Absolute percentage error 24.80% 5.89%

Exercise 4: Holt-Winters Additive Method (assume season i

Change the alpha,beta and gamma factors below to values between 0 and 1. Try to optimise the sm

α = 0.5

β = 0.5
 γ = 0.5

Mean absolute error = 12,569

Mean squared error = 249,331,643

Mean percentage error = 3.29%

Year 1 2
Date 2000 Q1 2000 Q2 2000 Q3 2000 Q4 2001 Q1 2001 Q2

Passenger car production 494311 433240 335106 378795 387100 372395

Level: L 410363 338122 316442

Trend: b -37271.75 -54757 -38218.33
Season: S 83948.00 22877.00 -75257.00 -31568.00 16616 39415.23
Forecast (F) 457039 306242
Error -69939 66153
Absolute error 69939 66153
Squared error 4891498691 4376211139.88
Absolute percentage error 18.07% 17.76%

Exercise 5: Simple regression (using the first 8 periods)

N  XY  ( X )(  Y ) ( Y  b( X )
b a
N  X  ( X )
2 2
N
b = slope of regression line ΣX = sum of the first variables
a = intercept point of the regression line ΣY = sum of the second variables
N = number of values ΣXY = sum of the product of the va
X = first variables ΣX^2 = sum of the square of the firs
Y = second variables

Period (x) 1 2 3 4 5 6
Demand (y) 494311 433240 335106 378795 387100 372395
(xy)
(x^2)
(y^2)
Calculate the intercept and slope of the
regression line:
 Σx
Σy
Σxy
Σx^2 Absolute percentage e
Σy^2
b
a
r 361.357143

Mean absolute error = #DIV/0!

Mean squared error = #DIV/0!
Mean percentage error = #DIV/0!
 2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2002 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2003 Q1 2003 Q2

335790 397080 449755 402252 391847 385890 424325 433280

379430 365095 368421.67 394208.33 416362.33 414618 393329.67 400687.33

380252 358021 377550 413653 407952 399900 392895 408610

315505 313496 364032 437069 441131 425639 404977 418701

479160 412307

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
0 2 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 60 0 6 6 0 0 6 0 7 07
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 440905
20 20 425833
20 20 20 20
0 0 0 0 0 0
nential smoothing Holt's linear method Holt-Winters (multiplicative) Holt-Winters (additive) Regression

e optimum alpha factor by monitoring the mean errors.

 31355

1713728070

7.75%

2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2002 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2003 Q1 2003 Q2

335790 397080 449755 402252 391847 385890 424325 433280

380252 358021 377550 413653 407952 399900 392895 408610

-44462 39059 72205 -11401 -16105 -14010 31430 24670
44462 39059 72205 11401 16105 14010 31430 24670
1976866665 1525606702 5213490948 129977011 259383041 196271316 987854753 608612767
12% 11% 19% 3% 4% 4% 8% 6%

to optimise the smoothing factors by monitoring the mean errors.

41,208

2,623,844,914

10.63%

2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2002 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2003 Q1 2003 Q2

335790 397080 449755 402252 391847 385890 424325 433280

325648 355288 406894 419660 416489 405764 414651 425990

-12152 8744 30175 21471 9150 -787 4050 7694
315505 313496 364032 437069 441131 425639 404977 418701
20285 83584 85723 -34817 -49284 -39749 19348 14579
20285 83584 85723 34817 49284 39749 19348 14579
411479006 6986281465 7348347090 1212213994 2428945164 1579981445 374342758 212559325
6% 21% 19% 9% 13% 10% 5% 3%
hod (assume season is 4 quarters)
d 1. Try to optimise the smoothing factors by monitoring the mean errors.

18,863

536,283,042

4.79%

2 3 4
2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2002 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2003 Q1 2003 Q2

335790 397080 449755 402252 391847 385890 424325 433280

364750 397050 403979 395316 423887 420075 401291 404722

-822.08 15738.87 11333.83 1335.51 14953.10 5570.83 -6606.87 -1587.83
0.87 0.96 1.13 1.04 0.90 0.94 1.09 1.06
259926 335932 469809 445115 344534 421977 479160 412307
75864 61148 -20054 -42863 47313 -36087 -54835 20973
75864 61148 20054 42863 47313 36087 54835 20973
5755317348 3739064899 402167997 1837251820 2238546066 1302271925 3006867236 439850353
22.59% 15.40% 4.46% 10.66% 12.07% 9.35% 12.92% 4.84%

assume season is 4 quarters)

d 1. Try to optimise the smoothing factors by monitoring the mean errors.
 12,569

249,331,643

3.29%

2 3 4
2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2002 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2003 Q1 2003 Q2

335790 397080 449755 402252 391847 385890 424325 433280

344635 384135 417259 402640 420910 413944 408059 410043

-5012.38 17243.94 25183.92 5282.32 11776.26 2405.07 -1739.90 121.87
-42051.05 -9311.68 24555.77 19513.63 -35557.11 -18682.87 20410.80 21375.41
202966 308055 417995 481858 365871 423375 440905 425833
132824 89025 31760 -79606 25976 -37485 -16580 7447
132824 89025 31760 79606 25976 37485 16580 7447
17642161016.3 7925500006.13 1008691334.85 6337179332.99 674740561.519 1405105962.07 274892949.85 55459193.4892
39.56% 22.42% 7.06% 19.79% 6.63% 9.71% 3.91% 1.72%

st 8 periods)

N  XY   X Y
y  a  bx r
N  X 2

  X  N Y 2  Y 
2 2

X = sum of the first variables
Y = sum of the second variables
XY = sum of the product of the variables
X^2 = sum of the square of the first variables

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
335790 397080 449755 402252 391847 385890 424325 433280

Forecast (F)
 Error
Absolute error
Squared error
Absolute percentage error
 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2005 Q1 2005 Q2

391213 408740 445458 428202 379048 394042 432796 415997

414498.33 416272.67 411077.67 415137 427466.67 417569.33 400430.67 401962

420945 406079 407409 426434 427318 403183 398612 415704

433685 409525 406013 432477 436012 398962 386704 411475

361414 400929 479664 449193 375582 386970 441642 423048

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
06 0 6 0 6 70 07
20 20 374608
20 2 0 404058 450936 453236 385754 392434 426333 423797
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Regression
2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2005 Q1 2005 Q2

391213 408740 445458 428202 379048 394042 432796 415997

420945 406079 407409 426434 427318 403183 398612 415704

-29732 2661 38049 1768 -48270 -9141 34184 293
29732 2661 38049 1768 48270 9141 34184 293
883989494 7081025.27 1447689098 3126725.38 2329980596 83556716 1168513851 85711.8904
7% 1% 9% 0% 11% 2% 9% 0%

2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2005 Q1 2005 Q2

391213 408740 445458 428202 379048 394042 432796 415997

412449 409133 425735 430339 407530 396502 409750 413736

-2924 -3120 6741 5673 -8568 -9798 1725 2855
433685 409525 406013 432477 436012 398962 386704 411475
-42472 -785 39445 -4275 -56964 -4920 46092 4522
42472 785 39445 4275 56964 4920 46092 4522
1803845442 616750 1555922460 18274378 3244915429 24204155 2124506086 20451576
11% 0% 9% 1% 15% 1% 11% 1%
4 5 6
2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2005 Q1 2005 Q2

391213 408740 445458 428202 379048 394042 432796 415997

419754 430630 423761 414802 412700 413395 408089 401473

6721.96 8799.22 964.93 -3996.98 -3049.14 -1177.52 -3241.68 -4928.47
0.91 0.94 1.07 1.04 0.92 0.95 1.07 1.04
361414 400929 479664 449193 375582 386970 441642 423048
29799 7811 -34206 -20991 3466 7072 -8846 -7051
29799 7811 34206 20991 3466 7072 8846 7051
887995541 61016029.8 1170080819 440622770 12015172.1 50012663.9 78251612.6 49709878.3
7.62% 1.91% 7.68% 4.90% 0.91% 1.79% 2.04% 1.69%
 4 5 6
2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2005 Q1 2005 Q2

391213 408740 445458 428202 379048 394042 432796 415997

418467 425082 427786 419344 413807 410750 410523 404780

4273.23 5443.79 4074.20 -2184.29 -3860.68 -3458.56 -1842.74 -3792.82
-31405.75 -17512.31 19041.22 15116.91 -33082.14 -17110.19 20657.03 13166.83
374608 404058 450936 453236 385754 392434 426333 423797
16605 4682 -5478 -25034 -6706 1608 6463 -7800
16605 4682 5478 25034 6706 1608 6463 7800
275739907.208 21923385.8245 30012094.8659 626699995.045 44964218.8218 2587139.56662 41773831.0478 60844986.4469
4.24% 1.15% 1.23% 5.85% 1.77% 0.41% 1.49% 1.88%

Y  
2

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
391213 408740 445458 428202 379048 394042 432796 415997
2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2

377176 369728 409303 390214 313100 329468 377855 385352

414278.33 408656.33 387633.67 385402.33 389748.33 370872.33 344260.67 340141

415851 396513 383121 396212 393213 353156 341312 359584

416591 389885 367769 386882 387727 330936 310357 341136

363377 382325 417633 396919 342374 318412 351313 349165

367905 387037 410347 396271 341733 322007 354700 350452

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2

377176 369728 409303 390214 313100 329468 377855 385352

415851 396513 383121 396212 393213 353156 341312 359584

-38675 -26785 26182 -5998 -80113 -23688 36543 25768
38675 26785 26182 5998 80113 23688 36543 25768
1495726003 717452752 685515229 35973930.3 6418078920 561142985 1335374157 664009707
9% 7% 7% 2% 20% 7% 11% 7%

2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2

377176 369728 409303 390214 313100 329468 377855 385352

396884 379807 388536 388548 350413 330202 344106 363244

-6998 -12038 -1654 -821 -19478 -19845 -2970 8084
416591 389885 367769 386882 387727 330936 310357 341136
-39415 -20157 41534 3332 -74627 -1468 67498 44216
39415 20157 41534 3332 74627 1468 67498 44216
1553562331 406314314 1725079623 11103671 5569154419 2153756 4555969724 1955071349
10% 5% 10% 1% 24% 0% 18% 11%
6 7 8
2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2

377176 369728 409303 390214 313100 329468 377855 385352

404074 396272 387882 378224 354351 344265 343755 354451

-1163.90 -4482.80 -6436.49 -8047.51 -15960.37 -13023.02 -6766.63 1964.72
0.92 0.94 1.06 1.04 0.90 0.95 1.08 1.06
363377 382325 417633 396919 342374 318412 351313 349165
13799 -12597 -8330 -6705 -29274 11056 26542 36187
13799 12597 8330 6705 29274 11056 26542 36187
190406234 158692486 69393314.5 44963476.8 856983306 122229340 704475613 1309528903
3.66% 3.41% 2.04% 1.72% 9.35% 3.36% 7.02% 9.39%
6 7 8
2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2

377176 369728 409303 390214 313100 329468 377855 385352

405623 395493 389168 380076 358181 347175 345882 356249

-1475.14 -5802.51 -6063.62 -7577.97 -14736.33 -12871.15 -7082.40 1642.69
-30764.46 -21437.55 20395.92 11652.48 -37922.82 -19572.38 26184.68 20377.57
367905 387037 410347 396271 341733 322007 354700 350452
9271 -17309 -1044 -6057 -28633 7461 23155 34900
9271 17309 1044 6057 28633 7461 23155 34900
85946146.0812 299616884.652 1090856.39871 36692147.1365 819874031.63 55662037.6007 536155297.758 1218034474.59
2.46% 4.68% 0.26% 1.55% 9.15% 2.26% 6.13% 9.06%

23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
377176 369728 409303 390214 313100 329468 377855 385352
UK residents going abroad (2006 - 2011)
Source: Office for National Statistics

10000

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006

Date 3000
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
UK residents going 4594 6059 5806 6873 6724 8393 7261 6665
abroad (thousands)
2000
Moving average 5486.33 6246 6467.67 7330 7459.33
Exponential
4594 5327 5566 6220 6472 7432 7347
smoothing
1000

Holt's linear method 6059 7334 8390 8427 9271 8625

0
Holt-Wintersr r
a ay n ul ug p t v c n b r r y n l g p t v c n b r r y n l g p
(multiplicative)
M 6A
p
M 6 Ju 6 J A Se Oc No De J a Fe Ma Ap Ma J u 7 J u Au Se Oc No De J a Fe Ma Ap Ma J u 8 J u Au Se O
7 07 7 8 08 8
6 0 00 06 00 00 006 006 0 6
0 6 0 6 0 7 7
0 00 07 0 00 07 07 0 7
0 7 0 7 0 8 8
0 00 08 0 00 08 08 08
2 0 2 2 0 2 2 2 2 20 20 20 20 20 20 2 20 20 2 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 2 20 20 2 20 20 20 2
Holt-Winters (additive)

Regression UK residents going abroad (thousands) Moving average

Holt-Winters (multiplicative) Holt-Winters (additive)

Exercise 1: Exponential smoothing

Change the alpha factor below to values between 0 and 1. Try to find the optimum alpha factor by m

α = 0.5
 Mean absolute error = 1034

Mean squared error = 1588990

Mean percentage error = 19.03%

2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006

Date
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
UK residents going 4594 6059 5806 6873 6724 8393 7261 6665
abroad (thousands)
Forecast 4594 4594 5327 5566 6220 6472 7432 7347
Error 1465 480 1307 504 1921 -171 -682
Absolute error 1465 479.5 1306.75 504.375 1921.19 171.406 681.703
Squared error 2146225 229920 1707596 254394 3690961 29380.1 464719
Absolute percentage error 32% 9% 23% 8% 30% 2% 9%

Exercise 2: Holt's linear method

Change the alpha and beta factors below to values between 0 and 1. Try to optimise the smoothing

α = 0.5

β = 0.5

Mean absolute error = 1,367

Mean squared error = 2,489,392

Mean percentage error = 28.77%

2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006

Date
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
UK residents going 4594 6059 5806 6873 6724 8393 7261 6665
abroad (thousands)
L(t) 4594 5933 7104 7557 8410 8266 7645
b(t) 1465 1401.75 1286.44 869.92 861.43 358.83 -131.18
Forecast 6059 7334 8390 8427 9271 8625
Error -253 -461 -1666 -34 -2010 -1960
 Absolute error 253 461 1666 34 2010 1960
Squared error 64009 212752 2775764 1153 4041749 3841742
Absolute percentage error 4% 7% 25% 0% 28% 29%

Exercise 3: Holt-Winters Multiplicative Method (assume sea

Change the alpha,beta and gamma factors below to values between 0 and 1. Try to optimise the sm

α = 0.5

β = 0.5

γ = 0.5

Mean absolute error = 276

Mean squared error = 119,477

Mean percentage error = 5.75%

Year 1
2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006
Date
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
UK residents going 4594 6059 5806 6873 6724 8393 7261 6665
abroad (thousands)

Season: S 0.79 1.05 1.00 1.19 1.16 1.45 1.25 1.15

Exercise 4: Holt-Winters Additive Method (assume season i

Change the alpha,beta and gamma factors below to values between 0 and 1. Try to optimise the sm
 α = 0.5

β = 0.5

γ = 0.5

Mean absolute error = 852

Mean squared error = 1,178,384

Mean percentage error = 16.97%

Year 1
2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006
Date
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
UK residents going 4594 6059 5806 6873 6724 8393 7261 6665
abroad (thousands)

Season: S -1204 3160 5079 7414 7763 9422 8027 7108

Exercise 5: Simple regression (using the first 8 periods)

N  XY  ( X )(  Y ) ( Y  b( X ) y  a  bx
b a
N  X  ( X )
2 2
N
b = slope of regression line ΣX = sum of the first variables
a = intercept point of the regression line ΣY = sum of the second variables
N = number of values ΣXY = sum of the product of the variables
X = first variables ΣX^2 = sum of the square of the first variables
Y = second variables

Period (x) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Demand (y) 4594 6059 5806 6873 6724 8393 7261 6665
 (xy)
(x^2)
(y^2)
Calculate the intercept and slope of
the regression line: Forecast (F)

Σx Error
Σy Absolute error
Σxy Squared error
Σx^2 Absolute percentage error
Σy^2
b
a 361.357
r
Mean absolute error = #DIV/0!
Mean squared error = #DIV/0!
Mean percentage error = #DIV/0!
 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

4440 4184 4475 4098 4922 5867 5450 6659 6827 8656 7517

7439.67 6122 5096.33 4366.33 4252.33 4498.33 4962.33 5413 5992 6312 7380.67

7006 5723 4953 4714 4406 4664 5266 5358 6008 6418 7537

7514 5077 3508 3110 2970 3800 5204 5759 6866 7494 9013

an b r r y n l g p t v c n b r 4597
r y n6389
l g 5854
p t v 6549
ec n b 6350
r r 8234
y n l 7406
g p t v ec n b
Fe Ma Ap Ma J u 8 J u Au Se Oc No De J a Fe Ma Ap Ma J u 9 J u Au Se Oc No D 0 J a Fe Ma Ap Ma J u 0 J u Au Se Oc N o D 1 J a Fe
8 9 09 9 0
08 8 8
0 00 08 0 00 08 08 0 8
0 8 0 8 0 9 9
0 00 09 0 00 0 9 09 0 9
09 0 9 1
0 201
0 1 0
0
0
1 10 1 01 1 0 1 0 10
10 1 0 1 1 1
20 20 2 20 20 2 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 2 20 20 2 20 20 20 20 20 2 20 2 20 20 2 20 20 20 20 20 2
0 20

4598 4612 3996 5334 5705 7889 7140

ands) Moving
0 average0 0 Exponential
0 smoothing
0 0 Holt's linear
0 method0 0 0 0
Holt-Winters (additive) Regression

optimum alpha factor by monitoring the mean errors.

 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

4440 4184 4475 4098 4922 5867 5450 6659 6827 8656 7517

7006 5723 4953 4714 4406 4664 5266 5358 6008 6418 7537
-2566 -1539 -478 -616 516 1203 184 1301 819 2238 -20
2565.85 1538.93 478.463 616.231 515.884 1202.94 184.471 1301.24 818.618 2238.31 19.8456
6583594 2368293 228927 379741 266137 1447070 34029.6 1693214 670135 5010027 393.846
37% 27% 10% 13% 12% 26% 4% 24% 14% 35% 0%

to optimise the smoothing factors by monitoring the mean errors.

2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

4440 4184 4475 4098 4922 5867 5450 6659 6827 8656 7517

5977 4631 3991 3604 3946 4833 5327 6209 6847 8075 8265
-899.64 -1122.96 -881.13 -634.18 -146.16 370.64 432.13 657.09 647.30 937.83 563.89
7514 5077 3508 3110 2970 3800 5204 5759 6866 7494 9013
-3074 -893 967 988 1952 2067 246 900 -39 1162 -1496
 3074 893 967 988 1952 2067 246 900 39 1162 1496
9448493 797953 935703 975725 3810601 4273321 60498 809737 1534 1350517 2237331
69% 21% 22% 24% 40% 35% 5% 14% 1% 13% 20%

od (assume season is 12 months)

d 1. Try to optimise the smoothing factors by monitoring the mean errors.

2
2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

4440 4184 4475 4098 4922 5867 5450 6659 6827 8656 7517

Level: L 5797.67 6007 5864 5644 5571 5681 5833 5958

Trend: b 4.03472 106.51 -18.29 -119.06 -95.94 6.94 79.86 102.04
0.77 0.72 0.77 0.71 0.81 1.02 0.98 1.19 1.18 1.47 1.26
Forecast (F) 4597 6389 5854 6549 6350 8234 7406
Error 325 -522 -404 110 477 422 111
Absolute error 324.803 521.719 403.664 109.648 477.267 422.256 111.109
Squared error 105497 272190 162945 12022.8 227784 178300 12345.3
Absolute percentage error 6.60% 8.89% 7.41% 1.65% 6.99% 4.88% 1.48%

ssume season is 12 months)

d 1. Try to optimise the smoothing factors by monitoring the mean errors.
 2
2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

4440 4184 4475 4098 4922 5867 5450 6659 6827 8656 7517

Level: L 5797.67 2899 727 -541 -1039 -1029 -766 -443

Trend: b 4.03472 -1447.41 -1809.80 -1538.74 -1018.56 -503.84 -120.51 101.29
4610 4175 4379 3982 409.76 4150.28 5535.21 7556.25 7809.50 9421.65 7993.20
Forecast (F) 4598 4612 3996 5334 5705 7889 7140
Error 324 1255 1454 1325 1122 767 377
Absolute error 323.965 1255.41 1453.8 1324.74 1121.56 766.843 376.511
Squared error 104954 1576062 2113526 1754925 1257908 588048 141761
Absolute percentage error 6.58% 21.40% 26.68% 19.89% 16.43% 8.86% 5.01%

st 8 periods)

N  XY   X Y
y  a  bx r
N  X 2

  X  N Y 2  Y 
2 2

rst variables
econd variables
product of the variables
e square of the first variables

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
4440 4184 4475 4098 4922 5867 5450 6659 6827 8656 7517
 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

6586 4234 4158 4724 4553 5085 5771 5873 6904 6835 8574

7666.67 7586.33 6112.33 4992.67 4372 4478.33 4787.33 5136.33 5576.33 6182.67 6537.33

7527 7056 5645 4902 4813 4683 4884 5327 5600 6252 6544

8829 7711 5106 3529 3322 3441 4177 5287 6039 7147 7588

l g p t 6966
v c 4529
n b 4073 4365 4210 5149 6668 5932 7067 6813 8333
Ju Au Se Oc No De J a Fe
0
10 10 1 0
1 0 1 0 11 1 1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20

6766 4627 4367 4610 4176 537 4221 5555 7545 7786 9398
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

6586 4234 4158 4724 4553 5085 5771 5873 6904 6835 8574

7527 7056 5645 4902 4813 4683 4884 5327 5600 6252 6544
-941 -2822 -1487 -178 -260 402 887 546 1304 583 2030
940.923 2822.46 1487.23 177.615 259.808 402.096 887.048 545.524 1303.76 582.881 2030.44
885336 7966288 2211855 31547.2 67500 161681 786854 297596 1699795 339750 4122689
13% 40% 26% 4% 5% 9% 18% 10% 23% 9% 31%

2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

6586 4234 4158 4724 4553 5085 5771 5873 6904 6835 8574

7707 5972 4632 4127 3938 4263 4974 5580 6472 6991 8081
3.19 -865.95 -1103.04 -804.32 -496.63 -85.63 312.78 459.29 675.47 597.44 843.82
8829 7711 5106 3529 3322 3441 4177 5287 6039 7147 7588
-2243 -3477 -948 1195 1231 1644 1594 586 865 -312 986
 2243 3477 948 1195 1231 1644 1594 586 865 312 986
5030028 ### 899347 1427706 1514752 2702760 2539666 343440 747759 97410 971215
34% 82% 23% 25% 27% 32% 28% 10% 13% 5% 11%

2
2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

6586 4234 4158 4724 4553 5085 5771 5873 6904 6835 8574

5894 5721 5703 5888 6199 6349 6081 6001 5868 5779 5767
19.34 -76.92 -47.57 68.65 189.88 170.09 -49.19 -64.29 -98.62 -93.94 -52.85
1.13 0.75 0.73 0.79 0.72 0.80 0.99 0.98 1.18 1.18 1.48
6966 4529 4073 4365 4210 5149 6668 5932 7067 6813 8333
-380 -295 85 359 343 -64 -897 -59 -163 22 241
380.295 294.851 84.7054 358.826 342.753 63.7741 897.172 59.3781 163.494 22.1398 240.884
144624 86937.1 7175.01 128756 117479 4067.14 804918 3525.76 26730.4 490.172 58025.1
5.77% 6.96% 2.04% 7.60% 7.53% 1.25% 15.55% 1.01% 2.37% 0.32% 2.81%
2
2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

6586 4234 4158 4724 4553 5085 5771 5873 6904 6835 8574

-170 9 96 116 98 70 36 10 -5 -11 -11

186.86 182.93 135.25 77.62 29.42 0.78 -16.49 -21.09 -18.15 -12.15 -6.11
6931.94 4417.72 4118.43 4493.15 4218.55 2712.54 4942.68 5698.98 7232.60 7327.81 9003.42
6766 4627 4367 4610 4176 537 4221 5555 7545 7786 9398
-180 -393 -209 114 377 4548 1550 318 -641 -951 -824
180.287 392.862 208.932 113.747 377.379 4548.27 1550.25 318.352 641.409 951.394 824.385
32503.3 154340 43652.4 12938.4 142415 2.1E+07 2403274 101348 411405 905150 679610
2.74% 9.28% 5.02% 2.41% 8.29% 89.44% 26.86% 5.42% 9.29% 13.92% 9.61%

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
6586 4234 4158 4724 4553 5085 5771 5873 6904 6835 8574
 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

7058 5812 4132 3687 3905 3457 3924 5165 5090 5706 5842

7437.67 7489 7148 5667.33 4543.67 3908 3683 3762 4182 4726.33 5320.33

7559 7308 6560 5346 4517 4211 3834 3879 4522 4806 5256

8925 8369 6828 4544 2965 2520 2307 2839 4307 5199 6080

7184 6332 3889 3782 3939 3479 3735 4597 4896 6129 5909

7976 6922 4414 4119 4496 4222 2716 4945 5701 7234 7329
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

7058 5812 4132 3687 3905 3457 3924 5165 5090 5706 5842

7559 7308 6560 5346 4517 4211 3834 3879 4522 4806 5256
-501 -1496 -2428 -1659 -612 -754 90 1286 568 900 586
500.78 1496.39 2428.19 1659.1 611.549 753.774 90.1128 1286.06 568.028 900.014 586.007
250780 2239183 5896131 2752604 373992 568176 8120.32 1653941 322656 810025 343404
7% 20% 37% 31% 14% 18% 2% 33% 13% 19% 11%

2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

7058 5812 4132 3687 3905 3457 3924 5165 5090 5706 5842

7992 7090 5480 4115 3435 2988 3116 4002 4698 5452 5961
377.05 -262.09 -936.14 -1150.38 -915.41 -681.07 -276.88 304.68 500.54 627.34 567.90
8925 8369 6828 4544 2965 2520 2307 2839 4307 5199 6080
-1867 -2557 -2696 -857 940 937 1617 2326 783 507 -238
 1867 2557 2696 857 940 937 1617 2326 783 507 238
3485946 6536139 7269493 734374 883421 878642 2613869 5411455 613784 257229 56525
26% 44% 65% 23% 24% 27% 41% 45% 15% 9% 4%

3
2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

7058 5812 4132 3687 3905 3457 3924 5165 5090 5706 5842

5665 5357 5326 5149 4983 4812 4767 4951 5089 5000 4972
-77.82 -192.61 -111.81 -144.70 -155.36 -162.92 -104.15 39.86 89.28 0.03 -14.11
1.25 1.11 0.76 0.72 0.79 0.72 0.81 1.01 0.99 1.16 1.18
7184 6332 3889 3782 3939 3479 3735 4597 4896 6129 5909
-126 -520 243 -95 -34 -22 189 568 194 -423 -67
125.554 520.47 243.368 95.4307 33.5715 21.7844 188.861 567.946 193.941 422.508 66.8153
15763.7 270889 59227.9 9107.03 1127.05 474.559 35668.7 322563 37613.1 178513 4464.28
1.78% 8.96% 5.89% 2.59% 0.86% 0.63% 4.81% 11.00% 3.81% 7.40% 1.14%
 3
2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

7058 5812 4132 3687 3905 3457 3924 5165 5090 5706 5842

-8 -4 -1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1
-1.56 1.09 2.16 2.15 1.60 0.91 0.50 0.07 -0.21 -0.32 -0.29
7529.70 6374.20 4275.47 3902.26 4198.09 3836.68 3317.13 5052.88 5393.77 6468.80 6584.53
7976 6922 4414 4119 4496 4222 2716 4945 5701 7234 7329
-918 -1110 -282 -432 -591 -765 1208 220 -611 -1528 -1487
917.915 1110.17 282.345 432.378 591.225 765.125 1208.35 219.546 610.958 1527.83 1486.5
842568 1232488 79718.7 186951 349546 585416 1460118 48200.4 373269 2334275 2209695
13.01% 19.10% 6.83% 11.73% 15.14% 22.13% 30.79% 4.25% 12.00% 26.78% 25.45%

31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
7058 5812 4132 3687 3905 3457 3924 5165 5090 5706 5842
2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

7534 6399 5001 3542 3049 3397 3174 3579 4294 4611 5590

5546 6360.67 6591.67 6311.33 4980.67 3864 3329.33 3206.67 3383.33 3682.33 4161.33

5549 6541 6470 5736 4639 3844 3620 3397 3488 3891 4251

6529 7851 7581 6102 3993 2456 2097 2075 2643 3697 4611

7319 6324 5679 3592 3268 3279 2935 3382 4315 4171 5244

9004 7530 6375 4276 3903 4199 3838 3318 5054 5395 6470
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

7534 6399 5001 3542 3049 3397 3174 3579 4294 4611 5590

5549 6541 6470 5736 4639 3844 3620 3397 3488 3891 4251
1985 -142 -1469 -2194 -1590 -447 -446 182 806 720 1339
1985 142.498 1469.25 2193.62 1589.81 446.906 446.453 181.773 805.887 719.943 1338.97
3940239 20305.7 2158693 4811989 2527503 199725 199320 33041.6 649453 518318 1792845
36% 2% 23% 38% 34% 12% 12% 5% 23% 19% 31%

2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

7534 6399 5001 3542 3049 3397 3174 3579 4294 4611 5590

7031 7125 6291 4822 3521 2927 2635 2827 3468 4154 5100
819.21 456.31 -188.72 -828.80 -1064.89 -829.72 -560.45 -184.45 228.41 456.99 701.78
6529 7851 7581 6102 3993 2456 2097 2075 2643 3697 4611
1005 -1452 -2580 -2560 -944 941 1077 1504 1651 914 979
 1005 1452 2580 2560 944 941 1077 1504 1651 914 979
1010476 2107128 6656946 6555314 891826 884936 1160082 2261966 2727266 835968 958773
13% 23% 52% 72% 31% 28% 34% 42% 38% 20% 18%

4
2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

7534 6399 5001 3542 3049 3397 3174 3579 4294 4611 5590

5031 5083 4815 4666 4382 4250 4245 4279 4242 4433 4661
22.38 37.35 -115.56 -131.83 -207.91 -170.27 -87.36 -26.72 -31.84 79.21 153.60
1.49 1.26 1.07 0.76 0.71 0.79 0.73 0.82 1.01 1.02 1.18
7319 6324 5679 3592 3268 3279 2935 3382 4315 4171 5244
215 75 -678 -50 -219 118 239 197 -21 440 346
215.459 74.9551 678.44 49.7433 219.327 118.238 238.64 197.263 20.797 440.033 345.883
46422.5 5618.26 460281 2474.39 48104.1 13980.2 56948.9 38912.6 432.515 193629 119635
2.86% 1.17% 13.57% 1.40% 7.19% 3.48% 7.52% 5.51% 0.48% 9.54% 6.19%
 4
2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

7534 6399 5001 3542 3049 3397 3174 3579 4294 4611 5590

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-0.19 -0.09 -0.04 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.08 0.03 0.00 -0.01
8268.39 6964.03 5687.27 3908.37 3475.25 3797.15 3504.93 3447.58 4672.97 5001.93 6028.95
9004 7530 6375 4276 3903 4199 3838 3318 5054 5395 6470
-1470 -1131 -1374 -734 -854 -802 -664 261 -760 -784 -880
1469.87 1131.15 1373.76 734.104 853.999 801.874 663.502 261.016 759.935 783.759 879.72
2160526 1279509 1887213 538909 729315 643001 440234 68129.6 577502 614278 773907
19.51% 17.68% 27.47% 20.73% 28.01% 23.61% 20.90% 7.29% 17.70% 17.00% 15.74%

42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
7534 6399 5001 3542 3049 3397 3174 3579 4294 4611 5590
 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

5828 7544 5814 5160 3311 2627 3407 3186

4831.67 5343 6320.67 6395.33 6172.67 4761.67 3699.33 3115

4921 5374 6459 6137 5648 4480 3553 3480

5802 6523 7997 7323 6118 3890 2118 1944

5673 7533 6600 5345 3717 3165 2975 2809

6585 8269 6965 5688 3909 3476 3798 3506

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

5828 7544 5814 5160 3311 2627 3407 3186

4921 5374 6459 6137 5648 4480 3553 3480

907 2170 -645 -977 -2337 -1853 -146 -294
907.486 2169.74 645.129 976.564 2337.28 1852.64 146.321 294.16
823531 4707784 416191 953678 5462888 3432279 21409.7 86530.3
18% 40% 10% 16% 41% 41% 4% 8%

2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

5828 7544 5814 5160 3311 2627 3407 3186

5815 7034 6906 6242 4715 3258 2762 2565

708.23 963.40 417.63 -123.16 -825.01 -1140.69 -818.35 -507.85
5802 6523 7997 7323 6118 3890 2118 1944
26 1021 -2183 -2163 -2807 -1263 1289 1242
 26 1021 2183 2163 2807 1263 1289 1242
666 1041771 4765763 4679280 7881630 1594406 1662397 1542622
0% 14% 38% 42% 85% 48% 38% 39%

5
2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

5828 7544 5814 5160 3311 2627 3407 3186

4880 5070 4945 4891 4613 4089 4027 4086

186.50 188.29 31.67 -11.36 -144.49 -334.35 -198.05 -69.56
1.19 1.49 1.22 1.06 0.74 0.68 0.82 0.76
5673 7533 6600 5345 3717 3165 2975 2809
155 11 -786 -185 -406 -538 432 377
155.036 10.6541 786.337 184.857 405.62 537.851 431.991 377.033
24036.1 113.51 618325 34171.9 164528 289284 186617 142154
2.66% 0.14% 13.52% 3.58% 12.25% 20.47% 12.68% 11.83%
 5
2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

5828 7544 5814 5160 3311 2627 3407 3186

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-0.01 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.01 -0.03 0.00 0.02
6205.82 7905.75 6388.58 5423.19 3609.25 3050.72 3601.66 3345.03
6585 8269 6965 5688 3909 3476 3798 3506
-757 -725 -1151 -528 -598 -849 -391 -320
757.413 725.257 1150.92 528.114 598.248 849.102 390.92 319.76
573675 525997 1324608 278904 357901 720975 152819 102246
13.00% 9.61% 19.80% 10.23% 18.07% 32.32% 11.47% 10.04%

53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60
5828 7544 5814 5160 3311 2627 3407 3186
UK Food, drink and tobacco index (2007 - 2011)
Source: Office for National Statistics

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

2007 2007 2007 2007

Date 70 2007 Apr 2007 Jun 2007 Sep 2007 Oct
May July Aug Nov
Food, drink and tobacco 103.9 103.4 103.5 102.3 102.3 101.5 103 107.8
index 60
Moving average 103.6 103.067 102.7 102.033 102.267
Exponential
104 104 104 103 103 102 103
smoothing
50

Holt's linear method 103 103 102 102 101 102

40
Holt-Winters
r ay n ly g p ct v ec n b ar r ay n ly g p ct v ec n b ar r
(multiplicative)
7
Ap M 7
Ju Ju Au 7 Se 7 O No 7 D 8
Ja
8
Fe M 8
Ap M 8
Ju J u 8 Au 8 Se 8 O No 8 D 9
Ja
9
Fe M 9
Ap M
07 7 7 8 8 8 9
00 07 00 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 09
2 20 2 20 2 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Holt-Winters (additive)

Regression Food, drink and tobacco index Moving average

Holt-Winters (multiplicative) Holt-Winters (additive)

Exercise 1: Exponential smoothing

Change the alpha factor below to values between 0 and 1. Try to find the optimum alpha factor by m

α = 0.5
 Mean absolute error = 4

Mean squared error = 41

Mean percentage error = 3.66%

2007 2007 2007 2007

Date 2007 Apr 2007 Jun 2007 Sep 2007 Oct
May July Aug Nov
Food, drink and tobacco 103.9 103.4 103.5 102.3 102.3 101.5 103 107.8
index
Forecast 104 104 104 104 103 103 102 103
Error -1 0 -1 -1 -1 1 5
Absolute error 0.5 0.15 1.275 0.6375 1.11875 0.94062 5.27031
Squared error 0.25 0.0225 1.62563 0.40641 1.2516 0.88478 27.7762
Absolute percentage error 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 5%

Exercise 2: Holt's linear method

Change the alpha and beta factors below to values between 0 and 1. Try to optimise the smoothing

α = 0.5

β = 0.5

Mean absolute error = 5

Mean squared error = 59

Mean percentage error = 4.69%

2007 2007 2007 2007

Date 2007 Apr 2007 Jun 2007 Sep 2007 Oct
May July Aug Nov
Food, drink and tobacco 103.9 103.4 103.5 102.3 102.3 101.5 103 107.8
index
L(t) 103.9 103 103 102 102 102 105
b(t) -0.5 -0.48 -0.64 -0.57 -0.59 -0.08 1.40
Forecast 103 103 102 102 101 102
Error 0 -1 0 0 2 6
 Absolute error 0 1 0 0 2 6
Squared error 0 0 0 0 4 35
Absolute percentage error 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 5%

Exercise 3: Holt-WInters Multiplicative Method (assume sea

Change the alpha,beta and gamma factors below to values between 0 and 1. Try to optimise the sm

α = 0.5

β = 0.5

γ = 0.5

Mean absolute error = 3

Mean squared error = 9

Mean percentage error = 2.24%

Year 1
2007 2007 2007 2007
Date 2007 Apr 2007 Jun 2007 Sep 2007 Oct
May July Aug Nov
Food, drink and tobacco 103.9 103.4 103.5 102.3 102.3 101.5 103 107.8
index

Season: S 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.98 1.03

Exercise 4: Holt-Winters Additive Method (assume season i

Change the alpha,beta and gamma factors below to values between 0 and 1. Try to optimise the sm
 α = 0.5

β = 0.5

γ = 0.5

Mean absolute error = 12

Mean squared error = 366

Mean percentage error = 10.22%

Year 1
2007 2007 2007 2007
Date 2007 Apr 2007 Jun 2007 Sep 2007 Oct
May July Aug Nov
Food, drink and tobacco 103.9 103.4 103.5 102.3 102.3 101.5 103 107.8
index

Season: S -1 95 123 131 128 119 112 110

Exercise 5: Simple regression (using the first 8 periods)

N  XY  ( X )(  Y ) ( Y  b( X )
b a
N  X 2  ( X ) 2 N
b = slope of regression line ΣX = sum of the first variables
a = intercept point of the regression line ΣY = sum of the second variables
N = number of values ΣXY = sum of the product of the variables
X = first variables ΣX^2 = sum of the square of the first variables
Y = second variables

Period (x) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Demand (y) 103.9 103.4 103.5 102.3 102.3 101.5 103 107.8
 (xy)
(x^2)
(y^2)
Calculate the intercept and slope of
the regression line: Forecast (F)

Σx Error
Σy Absolute error
Σxy Squared error
Σx^2 Absolute percentage error
Σy^2
b
a 361.357
r
Mean absolute error = #DIV/0!
Mean squared error = #DIV/0!
Mean percentage error = #DIV/0!
 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008
2008 Jan 2008 Feb 2008 Apr 2008 Jun 2008 Sep 2008 Oct
Dec Mar May July Aug

121.6 99.1 105.7 107 107 112 110.9 110.3 109 107.9 110.6

104.1 110.8 109.5 108.8 103.933 106.567 108.667 109.967 111.067 110.067 109.067

105 113 106 106 106 107 109 110 110 110 109

106 119 109 107 106 106 110 112 112 111 109

t v c n b ar r ay n ly g p 104ct v 106ec n 112 b ar 112r ay 113

n ly g111 p c t 111 v ec n b ar
Oc No De 9
Ja Fe M Ap M Ju J u 9 Au 9 Se 9 O No 9 D 0
Ja Fe M Ap M Ju J u 0 Au 0 Se 0 O No 0 D 1
Ja Fe M
8 9 9 9 0 0 0 1
08 00 00 00 09 0 0 9 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 9 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1
20 2 2 2 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
104 55 66 79 92 100 107
x Moving average
0 0 Exponential0smoothing0
0 Holt's
0 linear method
0 0 0 0 0
Holt-Winters (additive) Regression

optimum alpha factor by monitoring the mean errors.

 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008
2008 Jan 2008 Feb 2008 Apr 2008 Jun 2008 Sep 2008 Oct
Dec Mar May July Aug

121.6 99.1 105.7 107 107 112 110.9 110.3 109 107.9 110.6

105 113 106 106 106 107 109 110 110 110 109
16 -14 -1 1 1 5 2 0 -1 -2 2
16.4352 14.2824 0.54121 1.02939 0.5147 5.25735 1.52867 0.16434 1.21783 1.70892 1.84554
270.114 203.988 0.29291 1.05965 0.26491 27.6397 2.33685 0.02701 1.48311 2.92039 3.40603
16% 13% 1% 1% 0% 5% 1% 0% 1% 2% 2%

to optimise the smoothing factors by monitoring the mean errors.

2007 2008 2008 2008 2008

2008 Jan 2008 Feb 2008 Apr 2008 Jun 2008 Sep 2008 Oct
Dec Mar May July Aug

121.6 99.1 105.7 107 107 112 110.9 110.3 109 107.9 110.6

114 109 108 107 107 109 110 111 110 109 110
5.24 0.22 -0.69 -0.65 -0.47 0.99 1.20 0.85 0.14 -0.53 -0.05
106 119 109 107 106 106 110 112 112 111 109
15 -20 -4 0 1 6 1 -1 -3 -3 2
 15 20 4 0 1 6 1 1 3 3 2
236 402 13 0 1 34 1 2 8 7 4
13% 20% 3% 0% 1% 5% 1% 1% 3% 2% 2%

od (assume season is 12 months)

d 1. Try to optimise the smoothing factors by monitoring the mean errors.

2
2007 2008 2008 2008 2008
2008 Jan 2008 Feb 2008 Apr 2008 Jun 2008 Sep 2008 Oct
Dec Mar May July Aug

121.6 99.1 105.7 107 107 112 110.9 110.3 109 107.9 110.6

Level: L 105.092 107 111 113 114 114 113 113

Trend: b 0.53264 1.18 2.61 2.37 1.83 0.77 -0.02 -0.12
1.16 0.94 1.01 1.02 0.99 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.98
Forecast (F) 104 106 112 112 113 111 111
Error 3 6 -1 -2 -4 -3 0
Absolute error 2.5734 5.63111 0.96462 2.0973 4.1307 3.04032 0.4204
Squared error 6.62239 31.7094 0.9305 4.39865 17.0627 9.24353 0.17673
Absolute percentage error 2.41% 5.03% 0.87% 1.90% 3.79% 2.82% 0.38%

ssume season is 12 months)

d 1. Try to optimise the smoothing factors by monitoring the mean errors.
 2
2007 2008 2008 2008 2008
2008 Jan 2008 Feb 2008 Apr 2008 Jun 2008 Sep 2008 Oct
Dec Mar May July Aug

121.6 99.1 105.7 107 107 112 110.9 110.3 109 107.9 110.6

Level: L 105.092 8 -20 -28 -25 -17 -9 -2

Trend: b 0.53264 -48.32 -37.93 -23.32 -10.20 -1.08 3.76 5.26
119 95 102 104 48.95 113.55 131.17 133.16 127.03 117.77 112.19
Forecast (F) 104 55 66 79 92 100 107
Error 3 57 45 31 17 7 4
Absolute error 2.56736 56.921 45.3268 31.316 16.8957 7.48435 3.84405
Squared error 6.59134 3240 2054.52 980.692 285.465 56.0155 14.7767
Absolute percentage error 2.40% 50.82% 40.87% 28.39% 15.50% 6.94% 3.48%

st 8 periods)

N  XY   X Y
y  a  bx r
N  X 2

  X  N Y 2  Y 
2 2

rst variables
econd variables
product of the variables
e square of the first variables

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
121.6 99.1 105.7 107 107 112 110.9 110.3 109 107.9 110.6
 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009
2009 Jan 2009 Feb 2009 Apr 2009 Jun 2009 Sep
Nov Dec Mar May July Aug

115.6 125 105.5 111.2 112.8 115.6 116 117.9 114.9 113.9 111.7

109.167 111.367 117.067 115.367 113.9 109.833 113.2 114.8 116.5 116.267 115.567

110 113 119 112 112 112 114 115 116 116 115

110 114 124 114 112 111 114 116 118 117 115

t v c 116
an b 130
ar 103 110 112 110 114 115 117 117 116
Oc No De 1
J Fe M
0 0 1
01 10 01 01 01 11
20 2 2 2 20
113 126 102 107 108 51 116 132 134 127 118
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009
2009 Jan 2009 Feb 2009 Apr 2009 Jun 2009 Sep
Nov Dec Mar May July Aug

115.6 125 105.5 111.2 112.8 115.6 116 117.9 114.9 113.9 111.7

110 113 119 112 112 112 114 115 116 116 115
6 12 -13 -1 1 3 2 3 -2 -2 -3
5.92277 12.3614 13.3193 0.95965 1.12017 3.36009 2.08004 2.94002 1.52999 1.76499 3.0825
35.0792 152.804 177.404 0.92094 1.25479 11.2902 4.32658 8.64373 2.34087 3.11521 9.50179
5% 11% 11% 1% 1% 3% 2% 3% 1% 2% 3%

2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009

2009 Jan 2009 Feb 2009 Apr 2009 Jun 2009 Sep
Nov Dec Mar May July Aug

115.6 125 105.5 111.2 112.8 115.6 116 117.9 114.9 113.9 111.7

113 120 115 113 112 113 115 117 117 115 113
1.45 4.19 -0.37 -1.13 -0.82 0.23 0.80 1.36 0.55 -0.24 -1.13
110 114 124 114 112 111 114 116 118 117 115
6 11 -18 -3 1 4 2 2 -3 -3 -4
 6 11 18 3 1 4 2 2 3 3 4
36 120 332 9 1 18 5 5 11 10 13
5% 9% 17% 3% 1% 4% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3%

2
2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009
2009 Jan 2009 Feb 2009 Apr 2009 Jun 2009 Sep
Nov Dec Mar May July Aug

115.6 125 105.5 111.2 112.8 115.6 116 117.9 114.9 113.9 111.7

113 110 110 110 110 113 115 119 120 120 119
-0.18 -1.33 -0.61 -0.43 -0.17 1.36 1.83 2.50 1.87 0.96 -0.14
1.03 1.15 0.95 1.01 1.02 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.96 0.96 0.95
116 130 103 110 112 110 114 115 117 117 116
0 -5 3 1 1 6 2 3 -2 -3 -4
0.24658 5.32413 2.71833 0.74114 1.04522 6.08436 1.87455 2.64365 2.4537 3.49055 4.23469
0.0608 28.3463 7.3893 0.54929 1.09247 37.0194 3.51395 6.98888 6.02063 12.184 17.9326
0.21% 4.26% 2.58% 0.67% 0.93% 5.26% 1.62% 2.24% 2.14% 3.06% 3.79%
2
2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009
2009 Jan 2009 Feb 2009 Apr 2009 Jun 2009 Sep
Nov Dec Mar May July Aug

115.6 125 105.5 111.2 112.8 115.6 116 117.9 114.9 113.9 111.7

2 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1
4.71 3.26 1.73 0.53 -0.20 -0.20 -0.48 -0.54 -0.44 -0.27 -0.11
111.63 120.25 98.24 104.62 106.87 81.09 113.98 124.03 123.70 120.19 114.43
113 126 102 107 108 51 116 132 134 127 118
3 -1 3 4 5 64 0 -14 -19 -13 -6
2.54244 1.30977 3.14313 3.76821 5.26711 64.2977 0.29139 14.3743 18.7248 13.3603 6.36337
6.46399 1.7155 9.87924 14.1994 27.7425 4134.19 0.08491 206.62 350.619 178.497 40.4925
2.20% 1.05% 2.98% 3.39% 4.67% 55.62% 0.25% 12.19% 16.30% 11.73% 5.70%

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
115.6 125 105.5 111.2 112.8 115.6 116 117.9 114.9 113.9 111.7
 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010
2009 Oct 2010 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Apr 2010 Jun
Nov Dec Mar May July Aug

112.8 117.3 129.4 107.4 111.2 115.6 114.3 117.9 119.4 116.2 114

113.5 112.8 113.933 119.833 118.033 116 111.4 113.7 115.933 117.2 117.833

113 113 115 122 115 113 114 114 116 118 117

112 112 115 126 116 112 113 113 116 119 118

116 119 130 106 112 112 112 112 115 117 118

113 112 121 99 106 108 82 115 125 125 121

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010
2009 Oct 2010 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Apr 2010 Jun
Nov Dec Mar May July Aug

112.8 117.3 129.4 107.4 111.2 115.6 114.3 117.9 119.4 116.2 114

113 113 115 122 115 113 114 114 116 118 117
0 4 14 -15 -4 3 0 4 3 -2 -3
0.44125 4.27938 14.2397 14.8802 3.64008 2.57996 0.01002 3.59499 3.2975 1.55125 2.97563
0.1947 18.3131 202.769 221.419 13.2502 6.6562 0.0001 12.924 10.8735 2.40638 8.85435
0% 4% 12% 12% 3% 2% 0% 3% 3% 1% 3%

2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010

2009 Oct 2010 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Apr 2010 Jun
Nov Dec Mar May July Aug

112.8 117.3 129.4 107.4 111.2 115.6 114.3 117.9 119.4 116.2 114

113 114 122 117 114 114 114 115 118 118 116
-1.01 0.42 4.06 -0.64 -1.88 -0.93 -0.54 0.68 1.50 0.73 -0.38
112 112 115 126 116 112 113 113 116 119 118
0 6 15 -19 -5 4 2 5 3 -3 -4
 0 6 15 19 5 4 2 5 3 3 4
0 33 212 353 25 14 2 24 11 9 20
0% 5% 11% 17% 4% 3% 1% 4% 3% 3% 4%

3
2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010
2009 Oct 2010 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Apr 2010 Jun
Nov Dec Mar May July Aug

112.8 117.3 129.4 107.4 111.2 115.6 114.3 117.9 119.4 116.2 114

117 115 113 113 111 111 112 115 119 121 121
-0.97 -1.34 -1.54 -1.22 -1.45 -0.48 0.16 1.54 2.60 2.42 1.36
0.97 1.02 1.14 0.95 1.01 1.03 1.01 1.01 1.00 0.96 0.95
116 119 130 106 112 112 112 112 115 117 118
-3 -2 -1 1 -1 4 3 6 4 -1 -4
3.25688 1.51165 0.91247 1.22257 0.92195 3.97072 2.54722 5.55602 4.17416 0.70259 4.06316
10.6072 2.28509 0.8326 1.49468 0.84998 15.7666 6.48832 30.8693 17.4236 0.49363 16.5093
2.89% 1.29% 0.71% 1.14% 0.83% 3.43% 2.23% 4.71% 3.50% 0.60% 3.56%
 3
2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010
2009 Oct 2010 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Apr 2010 Jun
Nov Dec Mar May July Aug

112.8 117.3 129.4 107.4 111.2 115.6 114.3 117.9 119.4 116.2 114

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0.02 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.06 0.03 0.09 0.00 -0.06 -0.08 -0.07
112.12 114.01 124.31 102.26 107.34 110.67 97.05 115.34 121.17 119.46 116.63
113 112 121 99 106 108 82 115 125 125 121
0 5 8 8 5 8 32 3 -6 -9 -7
0.09203 4.8903 8.15099 8.01332 5.36589 7.53339 32.042 2.54439 5.84177 8.5248 7.08886
0.00847 23.915 66.4386 64.2133 28.7927 56.7519 1026.69 6.47394 34.1263 72.6722 50.2519
0.08% 4.17% 6.30% 7.46% 4.83% 6.52% 28.03% 2.16% 4.89% 7.34% 6.22%

31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
112.8 117.3 129.4 107.4 111.2 115.6 114.3 117.9 119.4 116.2 114
 2010 2010 2011
2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2011 Jan 2011 Feb
Nov Dec Mar

112.7 115.2 119.8 130.7 108.8 113.6 116

116.533 114.3 113.967 115.9 121.9 119.767 117.7

115 114 115 117 124 116 115

116 113 114 118 128 118 114

116 118 122 134 109 113 115

115 113 115 125 103 108 112

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
 2010 2010 2011
2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2011 Jan 2011 Feb
Nov Dec Mar

112.7 115.2 119.8 130.7 108.8 113.6 116

115 114 115 117 124 116 115

-3 1 5 13 -15 -3 1
2.78781 1.10609 5.15305 13.4765 15.1617 2.78087 1.00957
7.7719 1.22344 26.5539 181.617 229.878 7.73323 1.01922
2% 1% 4% 11% 12% 2% 1%

2010 2010 2011

2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2011 Jan 2011 Feb
Nov Dec Mar

112.7 115.2 119.8 130.7 108.8 113.6 116

114 114 117 124 119 116 115

-1.17 -0.65 0.93 4.21 -0.68 -1.75 -1.25
116 113 114 118 128 118 114
-3 2 6 13 -20 -4 2
 3 2 6 13 20 4 2
10 4 40 172 382 18 4
3% 2% 5% 10% 18% 4% 2%

4
2010 2010 2011
2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2011 Jan 2011 Feb
Nov Dec Mar

112.7 115.2 119.8 130.7 108.8 113.6 116

121 120 118 116 114 113 112

0.36 -0.26 -0.82 -1.61 -1.62 -1.55 -1.20
0.94 0.97 1.02 1.14 0.95 1.01 1.03
116 118 122 134 109 113 115
-4 -2 -2 -4 0 0 1
3.78139 2.3953 2.29233 3.6416 0.02356 0.29588 1.42418
14.2989 5.73747 5.25478 13.2612 0.00056 0.08755 2.02829
3.36% 2.08% 1.91% 2.79% 0.02% 0.26% 1.23%
 4
2010 2010 2011
2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2011 Jan 2011 Feb
Nov Dec Mar

112.7 115.2 119.8 130.7 108.8 113.6 116

1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-0.04 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01
113.10 113.18 116.40 126.98 105.00 109.93 112.80
115 113 115 125 103 108 112
-3 2 5 5 5 5 4
2.58256 2.19918 4.8358 5.36825 5.46873 5.16191 4.23545
6.6696 4.83638 23.3849 28.8181 29.907 26.6454 17.939
2.29% 1.91% 4.04% 4.11% 5.03% 4.54% 3.65%

42 43 44 45 46 47 48
112.7 115.2 119.8 130.7 108.8 113.6 116
World oil supply (2005 - 2011)
Source: Energy Information Adminstration (US), December 2010 International Petroleum Monthly

World Oil Supply (thousands of barrels)

88000

87000

86000

85000

84000

83000

82000

81000
v n ar ay l p v n ar ay l p v n ar ay l p v n ar ay
No Ja M M Ju Se No Ja M M Ju Se No Ja M M Ju Se No Ja M M
6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 09
05 00 06 06 00 00 06 00 07 07 00 00 07 00 08 08 00 00 08 00 09 09 20
20 2 20 20 2 2 20 2 20 20 2 2 20 2 20 20 2 2 20 2 20 20

2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006
Date
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
World Oil Supply 84798 84892 84783 84803 84439 84648 84220 84076 85289 84999 84629 84921 84609
(thousands of barrels)
of barrels)

v n ar ay l p v n ar ay l p
No Ja M M Ju Se No Ja M M Ju Se
9 9 9 0 0 0
08 00 09 09 00 00 09 01 10 10 01 01
2 20 20 2 2 20 2 20 20 2 2

2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

84502 84291 84504 84407 84713 84210 83859 84401 83711 84419 85264 85082 85651 85735 85894 86077
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

85494 85972 85837 86716 85424 83869 85455 85344 84248 83190 83858 83751 83809 83516 83837 84911
2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

84496 84949 85422 85561 85336 85449 86153 86135 86104 86152 85799 86140 85979 86173 86835
Beer Production (thousand hectolitres)
Source: Office for National Statistics

Beer Production (thousand hectolitres)

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
ar ay l p v n ar ay l p v n ar ay l p v n ar ay l p v n ar
M M Ju Se No Ja M M Ju Se No Ja M M Ju Se No Ja M M Ju Se No Ja M
6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 0
06 06 00 00 06 00 07 07 00 00 07 00 08 08 00 00 08 00 09 09 00 00 09 01 10 1
20 20 2 2 20 2 20 20 2 2 20 2 20 20 2 2 20 2 20 20 2 2 20 2 20 20

2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007
Date
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Beer Production
5218 4029 4784 5295 4852 4573 4205 4667 4053 5423 3241 3303 4926 4135
(thousand hectolitres)
olitres)

ay l p v n ar ay l p v n ar
Ju Se No Ja M M Ju Se No Ja M
9 9 0 0 0 1
00 00 09 01 10 10 01 01 10 01 11
2 2 20 2 20 20 2 2 20 2 20

2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

4494 4278 4388 4643 4056 4727 4635 4515 2998 3589 4214 4884 4486 4290 4082 4233 3909 4379
2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

4670 3877 2711 2986 3600 4433 3651 3744 4301 4203 3811 3875 3606 4220 2390 2896 3823 4550
2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

5275 3509 3613 3889 3690 3561 4135 3666 2444 2859 4580
Marriages in the UK (thousands)
Source: Office for National Statistics

Marriages in the UK (thousands)

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q
1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 08
2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 20

2001 2001 2001 2001 2002 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004
Date
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Marriages in the UK
33 81.1 120 51.6 36 81.2 121 54.4 38.2 85.9 127 56.1 39.7 86.1
(thousands)
nds)

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9
2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00

2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

129 58.4 35.2 79 121 51.5 30.3 76.9 122 48.6 31.2 76.6 118 48.4 32 73.7 115 50.1
2009 2009 2009
Q1 Q2 Q3

30.7 74.4 109

Births in the UK (thousands)
Source: Office for National Statistics

Births in the UK (thousands)

220

210

200

190

180

170

160

150

140
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
0 0 00 00 00 01 01 01 01 02 02 02 02 03 03 03 03 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 0
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Date 2000 2000 2000 2000 2001 2001 2001 2001 2002 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Births in the UK
(thousands) 168 169 174 168 165 167 172 166 161 165 174 169 166 173
s)

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

182 174 174 176 185 180 173 179 190 180 179 186 195 189 184 190 203 195
2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

195 198 204 196 190 196.3 202.8 201.3 195.7 197 207
Coal production (1980 - 2009)
Source: Energy Information Adminstration (US), December 2010 International Petroleum Monthly

Coal production (thousand short tons)

160000

140000

120000

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19

Year 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
Coal production 143758 140883 137695 131810 56438 103617 119160 115081 114751 111444 104055
(thousand short tons)
usand short tons)

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
104632 93584 75177 53922 52482 53504 51788 44143 39863 33731 34737 32561 30599 27045 22055
2006 2007 2008 2009
19929 18232 19412 19703