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Detection, Countering & Defeating President Xi, An Analysis Of The Chinese Threat To
U.S. National Security

Gregory Lewis Bode

The University of Arizona: POL 579 Intelligence & US National Security

Catherine D. Ripley, CDR USN (ret)

June 30th, 2023

The United States has been regarded as the globally dominant economic and military

force for the last seven, almost eight, decades as a result of its leadership and strategic planning

in the wake of World War II. For those countless years, the United States has been able to

maintain a mutual and working relationship with other world superpowers such as Russia and

China. Within the past nine years, however, the geopolitical arena has shifted due to the

perception of weak leadership by the United States and its allies. Russia has supported

campaigns in Eastern Europe in order to ostensibly re-establish the borders of the former Soviet

Union by military invading the Ukraine in 2022 and continuing operations to this day. During

this Russian/Ukrainian conflict, China has been slowly showing stronger and more overt signs of

aggression on the global stage.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and President Xi have established themselves as

the dominant force within Asia and have aspirations to alter the world stage and become the so

called “global dominant force”. “In the 21st century, China is poised to become a superpower in

world politics. By all yardsticks, it is a dominant regional power in Asia, whether in economics,

military or soft power. In some decades to come, China would be able to challenge the U.S.

primacy.” (Hang, 2017) If China is able to establish themselves as the dominant force on the

global stage, The United States way of life will drastically change for the worse.

China is portraying strength on the world stage. Yet, with three presidential terms under

his belt, the experienced Chinese President Xi Jinping is confronted with three cataclysmic

problems that could bring the supergiant to its knees. “China has been sliding toward disaster for

some time. Two events a decade ago first revealed cracks in the Chinese juggernaut.” (Zeihan,
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2014) First, China faces a diminishing population due to previous administration’s policies. One

specific policy that has crippled modern day China is the one child policy. This policy aimed at

controlling the rapidly growing population and without thinking about the long-term effects it

would have on the nation, China adopted it rather quickly. “IUD insertion, female sterilization

and induced abortions all increased sharply. IUD insertions more than doubled in two years, from

6.17 million in 1971 to 13.95 million in 1973; female sterilization operations increased by nearly

70 percent, from 1.74 million to 2.95 million; and induced abortions increased by 30 percent,

from 3.91 to 5.11 million.” (Whyte & Feng & Cai, 2015) The decline in the population is

harming modern day China’s ability to have a self-sustaining work force. Secondly, throughout

the last several decades China’s infrastructure and population has become dependent on foreign

goods and supplies through the means of importation. Lastly, and the most significant problem

President Xi and China’s population are currently faced with, is their declining financial system.

The gravity of these major threats has President Xi and the Chinese administration

realizing that China’s future, without change is in peril. “China’s ability to employ its population

will end. China’s ability to source the materials to modernize will end.” (Zeihan, 2014) Previous

policies and the evolving global stage are forcing China into a corner and President Xi is

displaying the mindset of fight rather than flight for his nation’s survival. With their back

cornered, President Xi has developed numerous foreign policies focused on global dominance

through the means of economic and trade, geographic superiority, military capabilities

cyberspace control and industrial might. These five domains are in direct competition with the

United States and our allies. Throughout this paper we will examine these domains through a
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western perspective with the focus on the safeguarding of American interest and the American

intelligence community’s reaction and proposed countermeasures.

Before we assess modern day China and the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) global

interest, we must take a step back and look at their history in order to comprehend their ideology

and desires. “People must know the past to understand the present, and to face the future.”

(McClung) For centuries China was known throughout the world as a nation of individuals who

lived by the Warrior Ethos; these individuals were part of numerous Dynasties. The First

Dynasty to be recorded in history was the Xia (Hsia) Dynasty in 2100 Before Christ (BC). After

the collapse of the Xia Dynasty, the world would see 12 subsequent dynasties that lasted until the

early 20th century. During the Qing dynasty, China’s reputation of a strong independent entity

shattered and the country fell into what Chinese scholars classify as the “Century of

Embarrassment.” During this time period China faced three major threats to their national

security, “A loss of territory; a loss of control over its internal and external environment; and a

loss of international standing and dignity.” (Kaufman, 2011) In 1911 Chinese citizens sought for

a drastic change in national politics and thus started the national revolution known as the Xinhai

Revolution. “The 1911 Revolution is known for the overthrow of the Qing dynasty, the

establishment of a republican form of government, and the introduction of a new socioeconomic

system.” (Yu, 1991) The intent of the revolution was to establish a sense of nationalism among

the people, establish a democratic political system and improve the livelihood of the average

Chinese citizen. This ideology was widely accepted throughout China and led to the success of

the Xinhai Revolution. On January 1st, 1912 the country formally became known as the Republic

of China (ROC).
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With the Xinhai revolution ending and prosperity looking promising, China’s tribulations

were just beginning. While a majority of the world was recovering from World War I, a majority

of Asia was unaffected. This led the United States and Britain to alter their foreign policies. “The

British, along with the Americans, suddenly adopted a more conciliatory attitude at the end of

1926, Japanese obduracy left the country diplomatically isolated. The Japanese leaders felt

doubly betrayed: first, by their erstwhile Western imperialist partners who had formerly

presented a united front against Chinese nationalism.” (Gordon, 2006) While this international

policy shift occurred, Japan began to sense aggression by China and Chiang Kai-shek's desire to

spread nationalism and regain control of lost territory and the resources within the confines of

those territories. This put Japan in the ROCs sights and Japanese officials “saw no reason to back

down to the demands of Chiang Kai-shek's Kuomintang (KMT), or Nationalist Party, for treaty

revision in the 1920s.” (Gordon, 2006) The political actions conducted by the ROC led Japanese

officials to sanction military action against their neighboring country, and on July 7th 1937, Japan

invaded China. The invasion would last for approximately eight years and nearly brought the

ROC and China as a whole its knees. Japan, “Had for years held every part of Chinese territory

that made China economically and politically viable” (Zeihan, 2014) During this time period

Japan also began military operations globally to expand their influence. One of these operations

aimed at obliterating the world’s largest naval power. On December 7th 1941 Japan attacked the

United States naval base in Oahu Hawaii. These unwarranted military operations led the United

States to declare war on the empire of Japan on December 11th, 1941.

The United States’ entrance into the war guaranteed China two things. First, it pulled

major Japanese wartime funding and military assets away from the Chinese campaign. Second it

provided the ROC an ally by default. “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” (Sun Tzu), “China

had to hold out until the Western powers entered the war. Survival was Chiang's clear and

constant goal.” (Gordon, 2006) The United States military operations in the Pacific were solely

to protect US interest and our allies within that theater of operation. China happened to be one of

the allies by default and this allowed for mutual trust to be developed. On August 6th and 9th of

1945, the United States deployed two strategic bombers each armed with a new weapon that

would forever alter the world, in hopes to end the war with Japan. Two Japanese cities were

targeted, resulting in approximately 120,000 total deaths and within a month Japan surrendered,

thus giving China the opportunity to establish dominance in the Pacific Rim.

With the conclusion of the World War II, we should take note of two significant factors

that had a direct impact on China. First, Japan returned several territories to the ROC in a show

of good faith and to bury the hatchet. The second factor was the development of the Marshal

Plan which created structure for capitalism and free markets throughout the world. When Japan

surrendered, they returned two key locations that were important in understanding the history of

China. The island of Taiwan, where “ROC government representatives accept the surrender of

Japanese forces” (https://www.taiwan.gov.) and Korea were the two strategic locations that were

returned. Several years later, the already depleted ROC, reengaged with the CCP thus furthering

the century of embarrassment. Prior to the Japanese invasion, the ROC had been conducting

operations against Chinese nationals who pledged allegiance to the Communist Party and had to

cease those efforts to ensure victory against a foreign intruder. Due to the Japanese military
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efforts, the ROC was ineffective and allowed the Communist Party’s agenda to gain more

traction in mainland China along with Mao to secure unchallenged control of the Communist

Party.” (Bhutni, 1994) With such a strong opponent, Kai-shek and the Nationalist party relocated

to Taiwan in an attempt to regroup; “The ROC government relocates to Taiwan, followed by 1.2

million people from China.” (https://www.taiwan.gov.) With the Nationalist Party’s relocation

and ties to the United States, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) under Mao Zedong became

the controlling entity within the Mainland and strengthened its ties to the Union of Soviet

Socialist Republics (USSR).

The comprehensive aspects of the Marshall Plan, which were to create free trade in open

markets and foster capitalism throughout the world, was in direct contrast to Mao Zedong’s

vision of a self-contained communist eutopia. As discussed above, the world was in chaos from

World War II and needed to be rebuilt. The Marshall Plan was also referred to as “the European

Recovery Plan (ERP) The ERP was an economic stimulus program that injected over $13 billion

into the struggling economies.” (Weissman, 2013) Although this plan aimed at aiding the

European nations, it created an unfavorable situation in China due to the shift in ideology change

from Capitalism to Communism. Mao’s desire to become an independent, self-sustaining nation

quickly became a reality. However, with the implementation of the Marshall Plan, the preferred

global currency became the U.S dollar (USD). While China saw no significant impact to their

economy during this time period, it would later become a point of contention in the modern-day

global economy.
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Now under control by the CCP and Mao Zedong, China was immediately confronted

with yet another military conflict. In 1950 the Korean War commenced when communist North

Korea advanced the 38th parallel and gained control of a majority of the capitalist nation of South

Korea. South Korea who was backed by the United States, pleaded for U.S intervention. A

resolution was passed for military action through the United Nations Security Council. The

USSR boycotted the meeting due to the fact the Council refused to accept the CCP as a rightful

member and allowed the ROC to represent China. This boycotting allowed the resolution to be

passed with ease. The United Nations (UN) gave General Douglas McArthur and his UN

compiled military force the approval to move into South Korea. After being surrounded by North

Korean forces, McArthur received reinforcements from the American military and began counter

operations which in turn drove the North Korean forces to the Korean/ Chinese border. The

retreat by North Korean forces to the Chinese border threatened China’s Mainland once again.

“Mao, against the advice of some of his colleagues, chose to intervene since China's security was

interlinked with Korea's. The Chinese forces fought the better equipped Americans to a stalemate

until an armistice was agreed to in 1953” (Bhutni, 1994) With another devastating conflict in the

past, the CCP believed it was necessary to establish China as a communist hegemony.

Mao Zedong and the CCP knew in order to become a hegemony, they must control the

Chinese people before attempting to control the world. In efforts to establish state control, Mao

Zedong and the CCP launched “two campaigns designed to intimidate and weaken the business

and commercial interests and thus secure for the State control over these sectors of the economy

which would have to play such an important part in any development program” (Rosse, 1954)

Stemming from these two campaigns the Communist party announced China’s first five-year
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economic development plan in 1952. The first step to this five-year plan was to have the state

seize control over-all privately-run sectors in Mainland China which they did quickly and

effectively. However, the final step in the plan failed due to the government failing to establish

suitable governmental infrastructure due to the recent change of administration from the ROC to

the CCP. In order to achieve the desired economic superiority, the CCP needed “to establish a

series of economic ministries with authority over particular sectors of the economy; the second

was further to subordinate the regional administration to the national administration; and the last

was to set up a super-ministerial agency to coordinate and give overall direction to the

contemplated economic development plans.” (Rosse, 1954) During this time period the CCP set

their sights on establishing seven new economic bureaus which included; construction, foreign

and domestic trade, light and heavy industries, geology, food and engineering agencies. With the

establishment of these new agencies, Mao and the CCP gained total control of mainland China

and believed it was time to secure another hegemony to maintain control and expand globally.

In 1953, China used their common belief of communism ideology as an avenue to begin

negotiations with the USSR to further their nation’s might. Chinese ambassadors traveled to

Moscow to enhance the relationship between the two war ravaged nations. While the world’s

perception of this meeting was that China was securing further military aid, China and Mao’s

agenda was surprisingly drastically different. Mao Zedong sought to strengthen China through

the means of industry and the economy; no longer the military. “At first it was thought that the

primary purpose of the mission was to secure further military aid and settle political problems,

but it later became increasingly evident that the main objective of the mission was to secure a

Soviet agreement in principle to help industrialize China.” (Rosse, 1954) With the assistance of
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the Soviet Union and their willingness to share their economic model, the CCP was able to bring

their economic five-year plan to fruition. Mao Zedong and the CCP slowly started to alter

China’s constant trajectory of conflict to a new more peaceful one. While altering the country

Mao and the finance minister, Po I Po, directed approximately “U.S. $4.2 billion, or

approximately 44 percent of the overall planned expenditures for the year of this amount, U.S.

$857 million was to be spent on industrial development, $267 million on communications and

transportation, $212 million on the development of agriculture, forestry and water conservation.”

(Rosse, 1954) The five- year plan sought to establish a unified nation by bringing the five

regions together.

Looking at a map of China, the country can be broken down into five distinct regions.

Each region had a separate purpose towards the five-year plan. The first region is Manchuria also

referred to as Northeastern China. Manchuria was designated as the leading industrial area for

the Chinese economy. “Manchurian industry accounts for approximately 70 percent of China's

basic industrial output.” (Rosse, 1954) The second region, is Northern China which is just as

vital to the CCP due to the ability to access the deep-water ports and the sea trade routes. The

third region is located in the Shanghai area of mainland China and was considered another

industrial stronghold. The last two areas that Mao and the CCP designated, were Wuhan and the

Northwestern areas of China. These two areas were utilized as minor industrial footprints, but

were believed to be the safest locations throughout the country due to their proximity to any

land-based threat. Although this division of regions looked promising on paper to the CCP at this

time, it would later create an unfavorable position for China on the world stage. One aspect that

the CCP did not grasp was that during the formative years of China, the regions were use to the
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freedom and lack of state control. This taste of freedom produced individual group mindsets that

would lead to unwillingness to work as nation. “China’s Regions have little in common and do

not naturally cohere.” (Zeihan, 2014) While the CCP established these regions, they also

implemented a new national economic reform policy along with several national banking system

reforms to control the people.

In 1978 the Chinese economy was struggling and in peril due to the isolation mindset of

Mao Zedong. With Deng Xiaoping at the helm, the bleak period began to change due to the

visionary’s reform policies. Deng Xiaoping CCP launched the Chinese “open door policy”.

“Deng realized that without reforms, China would continue to be gripped by abject poverty, rural

backwardness, poor infrastructure, and economic and trade isolation from the rest of the world,

especially the United States and other western countries.” (Jain, 2017) This economic reform

policy aimed four major modernizations to the country’s national defense, agricultural industry,

the overall industrial might and the science and technology industry of China. At the same time

Deng sought a free-market style economy and what scholars call a socialist system with Chinese

Characteristics. Although Deng sought the economic freedom for the nation, he and the CCP still

had complete control on the population through the banking reforms that were in conjunction to

the open-door policy. During this banking reform, the CCP drove non state controlled banks out

and creating two significant problems that led to their current global issues. “While the Chinese

banking sector is the most important component of the system. However, some of the problems

are still serious such as: 1) there is a large volume of non-performing loans in Chinese banking

sector which indicates risk of Chinese banks is still high; and 2) the profitability of Chinese

banks is still below the international standards.” (Garcia-Herrero et al., 2009) the CCP was so
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hyper focused on total control of their citizens that they neglected the ramifications and issues

that would lead to the current catastrophic issues that the CCP and President Xi are faced with.

Fast forward to 2013, the Chinese economy is on the brink of total collapse and newly

elected “Chinese President Xi Jinping announced plans to build a Silk Road Economic Belt and a

21st Century Maritime Silk Road, which have come to be known as the Belt and Road Initiative

(BRI).” (Lu,Rohr, Hafner& Knack, 2018) This ambitious foreign policy was constructed with the

United States 1948, Marshall Plan as an example, Much like the United States developing trade

routes and a footprint in Europe post World War II: “version of a modern-day Marshall Plan, but

not necessarily with pure intentions.” (Lindley, 2022) President Xi aimed to establish two

substantial trade corridors; one maritime based route and a land-based route to help enhance the

depleted economy. While the trade corridors were a significant aspect of this project, President

Xi and his cabinet also saw it as an opportunity to increase Chinese presence in these

collaborating nations. “BRI is now a truly global endeavor: thirty-nine countries in sub-Saharan

Africa have joined the initiative, as well as thirty-four in Europe and Central Asia, twenty-five in

East Asia and the Pacific, eighteen in Latin America and the Caribbean, seventeen in the Middle

East and North Africa, and six in South Asia. These 139 members of BRI, including China,

account for 40 percent of global GDP. Sixty-three percent of the world’s population lives within

the borders of BRI countries” (Sacks, 2021) In 2017, President Xi and the CCP officially

recognized the BRI by adding it to the Chinese constitution. President Xi’s Belt and Road foreign

Policy outline three goals for the country and the region, “China’s stated national goals for the

BRI are to (1) supplement regional development through economic integration, (2) improve
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Chinese industry while exporting these same improved industrial standards, and (3) resolve

issues from excess industrial capacity.” (Lindley, 2022) These goals and promises

throughout have gained global traction and allowed China to position themselves on the on the

international stage as a potential contender to the United States as the global leader.

Now that we understand the history and self-induced problems from previous leadership

that formed modern day China, we can take a look at the threats that the global intelligence

community. More specifically, the “countries that have a common heritage and share a great deal

of their intelligence, such as Australia, Britain, Canada, New Zealand and the United States- the

group known as the Five Eyes” (Lowenthal, 2022) are preparing for threats. Today, China is still

run by the CCP with President Xi Jinping at the helm, and as discussed, at the beginning of the

paper he and his nation are attempting to establish a global superpower and encompass other

nations. To recap, the global threats China poses for global conflict are economic, trade,

geographic superiority, military capabilities, cyberspace control and industrial might. These five

domains have the potential to reshape the global hierarchy. Currently China has been able to

place themselves in an advantage over the United States and the Intelligence community because

for the last two decades the United States has been engulfed with tactics and practices tailored to

the global war on terrorism (GWOT) in the Middle East, while China has been able to study our

doctrine and establish their global foot print through the Belt and Road initiative. For the

remainder of this paper we will highlight President Xi’s ambitious One Belt Road initiative

foreign policy and the threats to the five domains listed at the beginning of the paper. Along with

the threats we will examine the various tactics the Five Eyes can employ to successfully impede

China’s ability to become the dominant world super power.

The Belt and Road foreign policy poses two substantial threats to the United States and

our allies. First, President Xi is using the BRI to strengthen the region to increase China’s

regional security and infrastructure footprint. Secondly, “The BRI will serve as a mechanism for

weaponizing the global supply chain and gaining technology dominance” (Lindley, 2022) These

two threats have already been used against the nations that are in close proximity to mainland

China. This group of nations (The Kuril Islands, Japan, Ryuku Island, Taiwan, The Philippines

and Borneo) are referred to as the first island chain.

One of the most critical dangers to the United States is President Xi’s expansion plan

within the South China Sea and the Pacific. In order to facilitate the Belt and Road policy the

zealous President Xi has set his sights on the first island chain. Today, the Chinese Military at the

direction of President Xi are overtly displaying hostile and incendiary actions towards the

separatist nation of Taiwan. China’s aggression towards the controversial nation of Taiwan is a

strategic play by President Xi in in order to increase the Chinese global foot print and maintain a

level of security on China’s natural resources. The capture of Taiwan is a concern for the United

States and our allies. However, the overarching concern is that President Xi and his military will

not stop there. Studying China throughout their history, military leaders and tacticians have

learned that the true strength of China lies with its land-based assets and not the naval assets.

China’s primary means of protection stems from having strong a border and the ability to

maneuver freely. Only separated from Taiwan by a mere 97 nautical miles, President Xi views a

captured Taiwan as an extended layer of protection to the Mainland and his Belt Road Initiative.

On the contrary, Taiwan also poses a significant threat in regards to the freedom of movement his
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military is faced with. According to Peter Zeihan, “The biggest challenge Taiwan presents to the

mainland is not its ability to make a mockery of the concept of a “united China” simply by its

existence, but rather the fact that it is far cheaper to use a land-based military to threaten sea

lanes than a sea-based military. Taiwanese cruise missiles and aircraft can deny Chinese shipping

and even military vessels access to a wide swath of territory. And Taiwan isn’t alone. Japan,

Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Singapore form a line of islands off the Chinese coast

that block any possible Chinese access to the ocean blue. All of these countries are broadly

hostile to China.” (Zeihan, 2014)

Another island that has gained attention from China is the Philippines. For decades the

United States and the Philippines have had a strong working relationship which has allowed for

the United States to increase the presence of U.S military forces. While the Chinese military

continues to harass the Taiwanese Government, The Philippine Congress has been diligently

working with the U.S military to increase the number of military personnel on the island to assist

with intelligence gathering, national security and regional stability. “China’s persistent expansion

into the South China Sea is the most concerning security concern for the Philippines as its

congress is set to approve an expanded basing deal with the U.S., Manila’s ambassador” (Grady,

2023) The United States IC and military has been able to maintain situation awareness in the

South China Sea through one primary collection method. Imagery Intelligence (IMINT) has

proven to be quite beneficial in the efforts to collect and counter the Chinese expansion. During

the IMINT collection means through geospatial intelligence (GEOINT), it has been discovered

that China is building artificial islands in strategic locations furthering their military’s reach.

“China has fully militarized at least three of several islands it built in the disputed South China
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Sea, arming them with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems, laser and jamming equipment

and fighter jets in an increasingly aggressive move that threatens all nations operating nearby”

(Reed, 2022) The first island chain and these recently developed islands also have serious

implications in regards to sustainment.

The first island chain also poses a threat to China’s economy and industrial might. China

relies on the importation of crude oil for the nation’s survival. In 2020 China, surged past the

United States to become the leader of imported oil, with more than “9.1 million barrels per day”

(Rapp & O’Keefe) With China having zero land-based importation infrastructure built, the only

means of receiving oil is through maritime means, more specifically the Taiwanese Strait. “More

then 90% of China’s crude oil imports is by maritime transportation. Currently, there are three

primary routes: (1) Persian Gulf- Hormuz Strait-Malacca Strait-Chine; (2) North Africa-

Mediterranean Strait of Gibraltar- Cape of good Hope- Malacca Strait-China; and (3) West

Africa-Cape of Good Hope- Malacca Strait- China. The Malacca Strait, the Taiwan Strait, the

Bab el Mandab, Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal have a significant impact on China’s oil import

routes” (Wang & Lu, 2015) The 97 miles of water is China’s only oil life line and President Xi

grasps the importance of securing this Strait, hence the increasing overt hostile actions towards

the first island chain. While China is increasing its presence in the South China Sea, the United

States Navy is also increasing patrols to maintain a sense of world order. While the U.S Navy is

conducting military show of force, they rely heavily on the Five Eyes for accurate and timely

intelligence. The Five Eyes must continue to gather intelligence through the means of Geospatial

imagery and Signal Intelligence (SIGINT) to effectively provide, strategist accurate data to

influence future economic policies tailored to hindering the procurement of foreign oil. If the IC
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can provide this data and our policy makers take immediate action, President XI’s industrial

might has the likelihood to crumble and China will be forced to fight in numerous spheres

Another means the United States intelligence community and the remainder of the Five

Eyes can counter and defeat the Chinese Government is to destabilize the Yuan. Until recently

the primary currency that could be traded and used on the global stage was the U.S. dollar

(USD). While the U.S has been engaged in the war on terror, President Xi has used the time

wisely and silently has established a significant footprint in Africa through economic means via

Beijing’s practice of predatory lending. “Predatory lending includes any unscrupulous practices

carried out by lenders to entice, induce, mislead, and assist borrowers toward taking out loans

they are unable to pay back reasonably or must pay back at a cost that is extremely above the

market rate. Predatory lenders take advantage of borrowers' circumstances or lack of knowledge”

(Hayes, 2023) China and the senior officials have taken this economic practice and have

weaponized it. Economic espionage has become a crucial aspect of the Chinese Government and

the United States and the Five Eyes must employ countermeasures to impede their actions.

Within the recent years we have seen this tactic become very apparent in Sub Saharan

Africa (SSA). “The establishment of the loan is therefore as important as the consequences of the

loan when looking at the Chinese lending behavior in Sub-Sahara Africa. The predatory lending

framework covers all three aspects of the loan, motivation, establishment and consequences,

while accounting for a long and slow seizure of assets.” (Wolde, 2022) This economic tactic has

positioned China in a superior position over the United States on the African continent and has

established the Yuan as the leading currency. One counterintelligence tactic the Five Eyes could
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employ is a subtle and insidious campaign to cast mistrust and devalue the Yuan so that global

markets will not consider it a stable currency or gold standard. “In 2018, The Trump

administration, which has routinely accused China of manipulating its currency to boost its

exports, launched a series of tariffs against Chinese imports. China retaliated with tariffs of its

own on U.S. imports, and the world's two largest economies have ratcheted up trade tensions

through the summer of 2019.” (Picardo, 2019) If the U.S intelligence community along with the

Five Eyes can continue to spread fear of the Yuan through the means of adverse media

campaigns and propaganda, China’s ability to continue predatory lending will diminish. Because

devauling the Yuan will also cause an internal political instability within the Chinese Communist

Party.

Another domain of potential conflict between China and the United States and its allies is

the control of Cyberspace. Traditionally, the United States has been at the vanguard of the

advances in the sphere of cyberspace. Xi has underscored the centrality of this front for China’s

development, noting that “the development of cybersecurity and informatization should

contribute to China’s drive to develop a modernized economy and achieve high-quality

development, and to the new model of industrialization, urbanization, and agricultural

modernization.” He elaborated further on his cyberspace vision, saying that “efforts should also

be made to develop the digital economy, promote deep integration between the internet, big data,

artificial intelligence, and real economy, and make the manufacturing, agriculture, and service

sectors more digitalized, smart, and internet-powered” (Levite & Jinghua, 2019) however, the

United States and our allies have come to the conclusion that China’s interest in cyberspace is

more malicious rather than good. “The United States is deeply concerned that the PRC has
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fostered an intelligence enterprise that includes contract hackers who also conduct unsanctioned

cyber operations worldwide, including for their own personal profit.” (The White House, 2021)

The unsanctioned cyber operations conducted by the PRC witnessed by the Five Eyes, more

specifically the United States has resulted in significant security reform to combat these cyber

threats.

In 2021 President Joe Biden of the United States signed an executive order to improve

the United States national cybersecurity interest. “The E.O. contains aggressive but achievable

implementation milestones, and to date we have met every milestone on time including: The

National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) convened a workshop with almost 1000

participants from industry, academia, and government to obtain input on best practices for

building secure software. NIST issued guidelines for the minimum standards that should be used

by vendors to test the security of their software. This shows how we are leveraging federal

procurement to improve the security of software not only used by the federal government but

also used by companies, state and local governments, and individuals. The National

Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) published minimum elements for a

Software Bill of Materials, as a first step to improve transparency of software used by the

American public. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) established a

framework to govern how Federal civilian agencies can securely use cloud services.” (The White

House, 2021)

The confrontation in the South China Sea also revolves around the cyberspace threat

China displays. The strategic value of Taiwan far exceeds the sole aspect of geographical
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superiority. Currently, Taiwan is the leading manufacture in semi-chip, according to the Michael

Klaus, “The global leader in the field is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation

(TSMC), which holds 60 percent of the worlds integrated circuit foundry market. Along with

Taiwan’s United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC), TSMC maintains a virtual monopoly on

the industry, and Taiwan commands 82 percent of the worlds foundry market. Taiwan’s 8-inch

water industry alone, has an annual production value of U.S. 148 billion, making it the ““lifeline

of Taiwan high-tech aspirations”” (Klaus, 2003) China and the United States both recognize the

strategic value of this component. China currently is using policies and economic means to gain

control of this component which would cripple the United States’ ability to compete in a cyber

environment. “From an American perspective, the most alarming consequence of the trend is not

its immediate effect on the domestic economy, but rather its ramifications for the future viability

of the American economic system. With China's technological advances, the U.S. economy is

becoming increasingly dependent on Chinese manufacturing, while China becomes increasingly

capable of severing its ties to the United States and overpowering Taiwan. Chinese expansion

into Taiwan would inevitably stimulate a U.S. military and economic response.” (Klaus, 2003)

In conclusion, the United States and its Allies will need to be agile and dynamic in

assessing and addressing potential threats from China. China has had several decades to advance

their ideology and their national interests, while the US has been involved in other conflict and

the Intelligence Community has been focused on terrorism and domestic threats rather than a

near peer adversary. China has insidiously spread its financial and military influence globally. To

counter China in the domains we have discussed, the US will need to capitalize on China’s

vulnerabilities. China imports a majority of necessary items; critically they import most of their
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food and all of their oil. Disrupting these supplies through the means of economic espionage e.g

advising policy makers on tariffs and other import taxes, imagery intelligence more specifically

geospatial intelligence and military intervention would have an immediate and dramatic effect on

the stability of the Chinese government and economy. The effect of the one child policy has

resulted in a diminishing work force that has created a critical deficit. It is essential that the US

strengthen the dollar, and the dollar be reinstated as the global standard.

The Intelligence Community must utilize overt and covert tactics to contain China or

history will repeat itself. A containment posture in regard to China is preferable to open conflict.

“The most effective way for America to out-compete a more assertive and authoritarian China

over the long-term is to invest in our people, our economy, and our democracy. By restoring U.S.

credibility and reasserting forward-looking global leadership, we will ensure that America, not

China, sets the international agenda” (The White House, 2021)

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