The Wall Street Journal - October 19, 2023
The Wall Street Journal - October 19, 2023
The Wall Street Journal - October 19, 2023
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U.S. NEWS
CAPITAL ACCOUNT | By Greg Ip
B
be dangerously out of date. ut sometimes financial But the debts are too
True, an imminent melt- has plainly deteriorated. The them in China’s government well capitalized to start with. crises occur because lo- large and growth too slow
down like the global panic IMF sees the country’s debt would vault the total to And a recession would de- cal, not foreign, inves- for China to sweep bad loans
that followed Lehman Broth- growth averaging just 4% 149% of GDP by 2027, above plete that capital signifi- tors flee. Nor are they always under the rug as it did 20
ers’ failure in 2008 is highly over the next four years, Italy’s at 141%. cantly, as stress tests the fast and violent, like the years ago, said Martin
unlikely. down from its projection of Local Chinese govern- IMF conducted on banks global financial crisis from Chorzempa, a China expert
Yet China’s fiscal and fi- 4.6% a year ago. This makes ments have struggled to ser- around the world illustrate. 2007 to 2009. Some unfold at the Peterson Institute for
nancial imbalances are so it far harder to grow out of vice their debts as land sales, For China, the IMF simulated over years, as occurred in International Economics.
large that they have taken the its debts than when growth a primary source of revenue, an adverse scenario in which Spain in the 1970s and the A multiyear financial quag-
country—and, because of its was 10%, over a decade ago. have dried up. Indeed, the growth averages 1% instead U.S. (with its savings and loan mire that depresses Chinese
size, the world—into un- IMF estimates 30% of local of 5% for three years and institutions) in the 1980s. consumer confidence would
S
charted territory. We simply econd, the IMF has also government financing vehi- property values decline. The The origins of China’s big sap demand for imports while
don’t know how well the Chi- boosted projections of cles are “non viable without result: Chinese banks’ capital debts are in many ways a swelling exports, pressuring
nese economy, and a leader- Chinese government def- government support.” ratios would plummet from textbook case of moral haz- foreign producers.
ship now concentrated in the icits, which they now see This is a big problem for 11% last year to 7.1% in 2025, ard. Developers and local gov- And while contagion is cir-
hands of President Xi Jinping, swelling from 7.1% of gross do- China’s banks who hold the worst of any region un- ernments were able to bor- cumscribed by the limited
can navigate these strains. mestic product this year to roughly 80% of that debt. Just der the stress tests. row so much because lenders connections between China’s
The scale of the problem 7.8% in 2028. half the cost of restructuring As loan losses mount, assumed Beijing would bail financial system and the rest
emerges from a series of re- The problem isn’t with the that debt would saddle them banks lend less. Local govern- them out. But that assump- of the world’s, that system is
ports issued last week by the central government but local with impairment charges of ments slash investment and tion is based on implicit, not still, in absolute terms, gi-
International Monetary Fund. governments that borrowed $465 billion—chopping 1.7 social services. Economic explicit, guarantees. gantic. Should it start to flail,
First, while China reported heavily via off-balance-sheet percentage points off the ratio growth and property values Logan Wright, director of the shock waves seem certain
stronger-than-expected eco- financing vehicles to fund of loss-absorbing capital to weaken further. China research at Rhodium to be felt, somehow, abroad.
nomic growth of 4.9% in the urban development projects. assets, the IMF estimates. Financial crises in Latin Group, a research firm, said
year through the third quar- Their liabilities now equal Chinese banks, relative to America in the 1980s, south- a financial crisis in China China’s economy faces
ter, its medium-term outlook 45% of GDP, and including their global peers, aren’t that east Asia in the 1990s and wouldn’t originate with an long-term woes................ A10
Top Fed Official Backs Pause in Rate Hikes THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
(USPS 664-880)
(Eastern Edition ISSN 0099-9660)
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BY NICK TIMIRAOS “contact after contact after form of tightening policy be- Commerce Department on and spending, a dynamic that Editorial and publication headquarters:
contact is that things seem to cause, when the U.S. Treasury Tuesday have extended a run is reinforced when higher rates 1211 Avenue of the Americas,
New York, N.Y. 10036
The Federal Reserve should be slowing down.” rolls over its debt, it must find of firmer-than-expected eco- also weigh on stocks and other
Published daily except Sundays and general
extend its pause on interest- For example, bankers have a new buyer of the securities. nomic figures. asset prices. “Anything that legal holidays. Periodicals postage paid at
rate increases because of reported more business loans Harker highlighted the At the same time, measures would reduce financial accom- New York, N.Y., and other mailing offices.
growing evidence that higher are coming due and will need lagged effects of tighter mone- of underlying inflation have modation will, in essence, be Postmaster: Send address changes to
borrowing costs will slow the to be renewed at much higher tary policy while addressing a slowed markedly since June. doing some of the work of The Wall Street Journal, 200 Burnett
economy despite recent signs rates. “They’re concerned that national mortgage bankers Core prices, which exclude vol- monetary policy, for sure,” Rd., Chicopee, MA 01020.
of hiring and spending some of those businesses and convention in Philadelphia on atile food and energy items, Harker said. All Advertising published in The Wall
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strength, a top central bank of- their business models will not Monday. “We did a lot, and we rose at a 3% six-month annual- Harker said it would be ap- rate card, copies of which are available
ficial said. be able to survive those higher did it very fast…The workings ized rate in August, down from propriate for the Fed to con- from the Advertising Services Department,
Philadelphia Fed President rates,” said Harker, a former of the economy cannot be 4.8% over the previous six- sider lowering interest rates Dow Jones & Co. Inc., 1211 Avenue of the
Americas, New York, N.Y. 10036. The
Patrick Harker in a Tuesday in- university president. rushed,” he said. “By doing month period, according to the once inflation is “within a rea- Journal reserves the right not to accept
terview said he thinks the cen- The Fed most recently nothing, we are doing some- Commerce Department. sonable distance” of the cen- an advertiser’s order. Only publication of
tral bank can likely wait until raised rates in July to a range thing. And I think we are doing “If inflation were moving up tral bank’s 2% target. an advertisement shall constitute final
acceptance of the advertiser’s order.
early next year to decide between 5.25% and 5.5%, a 22- quite a lot.” in a sustained way, then I
Letters to the Editor:
whether rapid rate increases year high. Several officials Harker has never dissented would behave very differently
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2020 and this year. Tuesday,
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JENNIFER LORENZINI/REUTERS
the price will limit patient ac- pocket charges will be. will be able to get Paxlovid
to ensure wide cess. Disclosure of the list Drugmakers often choose to free through 2024. After then,
price could fuel further criti- set a higher list price for a they could face an out-of-
access to antiviral cism. medicine in order to offer the pocket cost depending on
“Pricing for Paxlovid is kinds of steep discounts that their Medicare plan.
BY JONATHAN D. ROCKOFF based on the value it provides pharmacy-benefit managers Pfizer plans to subsidize
AND JARED S. HOPKINS to patients, providers, and and health plans seek in ex- copays of people who are
health care systems due to its change for covering the drug commercially insured at least Paxlovid is a key weapon in the arsenal for fighting Covid-19.
Pfizer will price a course of important role in helping re- and setting low copays or through 2028.
its Covid-19 drug Paxlovid at duce Covid 19- other out-of- Pfizer officials have said developed protection against land Clinic that was published
nearly $1,400 when commer- related hospi- pocket charges. that the company gave the the virus from vaccinations in September in the Journal of
cial sales begin later this year, talizations and Pfizer has U.S. government a volume dis- and infections. the American Medical Associ-
more than double what the deaths,” a The list price is begun negotiat- count in selling it Paxlovid for He said a high price could ation.
U.S. government has paid. Pfizer spokes- much higher ing with the $529 a course. The company force health plans to limit ac- A study, published in Feb-
Pfizer told the pharmacies woman said. pharmacy-bene- charged other high-income cess. “With a low cost medi- ruary in the journal Clinical
and clinics that will dispense The com- than the $529 fit managers countries $700 to $900 a cine, they’re not going to ag- Infectious Diseases, found that
Paxlovid, in a letter dated pany disclosed and health plans course, according to the per- gressively police it, but a 14% of people who took Pax-
Wednesday that was viewed Paxlovid’s pric-
the government this week, and it son familiar with the matter. higher price medicine they lovid tested positive again
by The Wall Street Journal, ing in letters it had paid for it. set a higher list Gilead is charging commer- likely would,” he said. days after testing negative,
that a five-day course of the sent to phar- price for Pax- cial health plans $3,429 for a Paxlovid, authorized in the compared with a rebound rate
antiviral will list for $1,390. macies and lovid to be able five-day course of its Covid-19 U.S. in late 2021, is a key of 9% of those who didn’t get
The U.S. government had paid health clinics to offer steep antiviral remdesivir, a Gilead weapon in doctors’ arsenal for the drug.
$529. that will dispense the pills discounts so patients can get spokeswoman said. The ther- fighting Covid-19. People who Sales of Paxlovid, along with
Health plans will probably around the U.S., especially af- wide access, according to a per- apy, which goes by the brand have been infected and are at a Covid-19 vaccine, boosted
pay much less than the list ter the federal government son familiar with the matter. name Veklury, is given by in- high risk of developing severe Pfizer’s revenue last year
price for the pills, and most winds down its exclusive pur- People who aren’t insured travenous infusion. disease can take the pills at above $100 billion. But Pax-
patients will have a small or chasing agreements and its usually have to pay the full David Boulware, an infec- home to reduce the risk of se- lovid use has plunged since the
no out-of-pocket cost because supplies run out. price of a drug. The U.S. De- tious-disease physician and vere disease. pandemic crisis abated.
Pfizer is expected to offer The list price is the starting partment of Health and Hu- professor of medicine at the Paxlovid cut the risk of Paxlovid prescriptions had
price discounts and help pa- point for negotiations between man Services said people who University of Minnesota Medi- death and hospitalization by dropped by more than 40% to
tients with their out-of-pocket Pfizer and firms called phar- are covered by Medicaid or cal School, said $529 a course 37% in people who took the 65,000 in early May from late
charges. macy-benefit managers over are uninsured will be able to was a more reasonable price drug in a 70,000-person, real- March, Barclays analysts said
Pfizer has already faced how much health plans will get Paxlovid without cost given that many people have world study led by the Cleve- in a recent research note.
Average family plan nears $24,000 this year after the biggest increase in more than a decade
20,000
Contribution:
Worker
Employer
$25,000
U.S. NEWS
1
ness by Google’s lawyers later tified that Neeva would have ways, that they used us as a email dated May 2019 that compete with Google, Whin-
Before he was in the trial. been able to profitably deliver bargaining chip because the was shown during his testi- ston said.
Google CEO, high-quality search results if threat of them switching al- mony. “We need to make this Before the choice screen,
2
Sundar Pichai An ex-Google it only had a 2.5% market lows them to extract better choice ASAP.” Google had a share of about
fretted about the employee took share in search. conditions from Google,” he A Google spokesman said 60%, and with the choice
Google is likely to highlight testified. “It’s no secret that advertisers never pay higher screen, Yandex gained a more
‘optics’ of its aim at the that testimony in its closing Apple is making more money than their maximum bids, and than 20% share. In two to
default search-engine company’s arguments, saying it shows on Bing existing than Bing the company is constantly three years, the numbers were
agreement with Apple business practices competitors don’t need a large does.” making improvements to ads reversed for the two search
Years before he became One of the best distillations share of the market to deliver Google is expected to argue on the site. engines in Russia.
5
Google’s chief executive, Sun- of the Justice Department’s useful search results and com- that this testimony highlights “If Google’s quality were to
dar Pichai raised concerns case came from Sridhar Ra- pete with Google. its core theory of the case: DOJ says stay unchanged and rivals got
about the deal at the heart of maswamy, a computer scien- There are other powerful play- offering users a better, then we would expect
3
the case: the Alphabet unit’s tist and entrepreneur who ers in the search market, but some preference shift from
contract with Apple that once worked at Google. The Apple used Apple and others elevate
direct search Google toward the rival,”
makes Google the default government put him to the Microsoft as a Google because it’s simply a choice rather Whinston said. That hasn’t
search engine on Apple’s Sa- stand to explain why a search ‘bargaining chip,’ better product. than a default happened in the U.S., he sug-
fari web browser. engine he launched, Neeva, reduces Google’s gested, because Google’s dom-
4
one executive
In an email from 2007, failed to take on Google. Google can easily dominance inance—secured in part
U.S. District Judge Amit
testified
when Pichai was overseeing raise advertising through default agreements—
Google’s Chrome browser Mehta, who will decide the The trial has revealed new Michael Whinston, an ex- prevents other search provid-
business, he wrote that he case, asked Ramaswamy why details about Microsoft’s re-
prices without pert witness for the Justice ers from getting enough
didn’t like the “optics” of Google pays billions of dollars peated efforts to get its Bing major Department, testified that us- searches to improve their re-
Google being the only search a year to maintain its default search engine more promi- consequences ers’ ability to opt out of de- sults.
lawmakers are present and perts believe the majority of chanan (R., Fla.). A total of four
vote for a candidate, if all Dem- the House would have to vote more Republicans voted
ocrats are opposed. to give him that authority, a against Jordan on Wednesday,
“When you’re going in the step once seen as unlikely but but he flipped two to his col-
wrong direction after two growing more viable. umn: GOP Reps. Doug LaMalfa
rounds, that’s obviously not a “My role here is to be deter- of California and Victoria
great sign,” said Rep. Mike mined, but I’ve constructed Spartz of Indiana.
Garcia (R., Calif.), who voted that as narrowly as the rules The overall tally was 199 for
for Jordan. say I should,” McHenry said. Rep. Jim Jordan, center, conferred with colleagues Wednesday on the House floor. Jordan, 212 for Jeffries and 22
Jordan’s allies, including Some Republicans said such for other Republicans. The win-
McCarthy, said the Ohio Repub- a step would amount to a tem- Mass.) said. bristled at the pressure applied Steve Womack (R., Ark.) said ner will need to win a majority
lican simply needed more time porary Band-Aid. Any effort to Rep. Hakeem Jeffries of New by supporters of Jordan, an his staff has been “cussed out” of the House, or 217.
to gather support. expand McHenry’s authority York, the chamber’s Demo- ally of Donald Trump who was by pro-Jordan callers. “We If Jordan withdraws, law-
“It’s all about stamina here,” would likely require bipartisan cratic leader, has suggested a “significant player” in his at- have a spine,” Rep. Don Bacon makers and aides said new
said Jordan backer Rep. Scott support to pass. that Democrats might seek tempt to stay in the White (R., Neb.) said. candidates could include Rep.
Perry (R., Pa.), chairman of the House Democrats said the changes to House rules that House despite his 2020 presi- Late Wednesday, Rep. Mari- Bruce Westerman (R., Ark.),
hard-line House Freedom Cau- next step would depend on Re- would enable bills with signifi- dential election loss, according annette Miller-Meeks (R., Republican Study Committee
cus. “We know the right guy.” publican moves to coalesce cant bipartisan support to to the House committee inves- Iowa), who voted for Jordan on Chairman Kevin Hern (R.,
But other Republicans said it around an alternative plan. come up for a vote on the tigating the Jan. 6, 2021, Capi- the first ballot but not the sec- Okla.), House Republican Con-
was time to move on to a new “We hope that they will House floor more easily. The tol attack. In social-media posts ond, said she received “credible ference Vice Chairman Mike
plan, with momentum building come to us now that there House currently has 221 Repub- and phone calls, party chairs death threats and a barrage of Johnson (R., La.), House Bud-
for a proposal to assign more have been two votes, and Jim licans and 212 Democrats. and leaders of grassroots threatening calls.” get Committee Chairman Jodey
powers to the speaker pro tem- Jordan has been unable to put Many of the holdouts indi- groups have hounded and po- Jordan said: “We condemn Arrington (R., Texas) and Rep.
pore, Rep. Patrick McHenry (R., it together, and find that bi- cated that they remained litically threatened lawmakers. all threats against our col- Byron Donalds (R., Fla.).
N.C.), to get critical work done. partisanship,” House Minority staunchly opposed to electing Jordan opponents said the leagues and it is imperative —Gabriel T Rubin
“We haven’t accomplished a Whip Katherine Clark (D., Jordan as speaker. Some have pressure was backfiring. Rep. that we come together. Stop. contributed to this article.
For even higher annuity rates, consider a deferred annuity. flecting the greater likelihood groups. The net worth of $300,000
of middle-income and lower- white families was $285,000 White
Secure Retirement Income for Life | Generous Tax Savings income households to own in the same year and Hispanic 250,000
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were biggest among the top 100,000 Hispanic
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0
terest rates to a 22-year-high. ment stimulus payments—in-
Robust consumer spending is cluding expanded unemploy- 1989 1995 2010 2022
FIND A RATE CALCULATOR ON OUR WEBSITE! lifting hopes the U.S. economy ment benefits, which likely Note: Inflation-adjusted to 2022 dollars
can avoid a recession. influenced the survey data. Source: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances
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U.S. NEWS
ALABAMA WASHINGTON, D.C. MAINE U.S.WATCH
Suspect Admits U.S. Sets $3.5 Billion Crew Member Hurt
To Killing Holloway For Electric Grid In Cruise-Ship Blast
The chief suspect in the The Biden administration One person was injured and
2005 disappearance of Nata- announced $3.5 billion for 58 passengers were evacuated on
lee Holloway has admitted he projects across the country to Wednesday after an explosion
beat the young Alabama strengthen electric grid resil- in the engine room of a small
woman to death on a beach in ience as extreme weather cruise ship docked in Portland
Aruba after she refused his events such as the deadly Harbor, officials said.
advances, then dumped her Maui and California wildfires The injured person, a mem-
body into the sea. continue to strain the nation’s ber of the crew, was taken to
New details in the killing aging transmission systems. a hospital with serious injuries
emerged Wednesday as Joran Energy Secretary Jennifer while 128 passengers were re-
van der Sloot, now 36, pleaded Granholm said it was the larg- moved from the ship, a
guilty in federal court in Bir- est federal investment ever in spokesperson for the Portland
mingham to extorting Hollo- grid infrastructure, supporting Fire Department said.
way’s mother. He sought a projects that will harden elec- American Queen Voyages’
quarter of a million dollars to tric systems and improve en- Ocean Navigator, with a ca-
tell the family the location of ergy reliability and affordabil- pacity of 202 people, had just
their daughter’s remains. ity. docked when the blast hap-
main thread. it hard to keep track of which ferent worlds: parents of the chains said, “A friend once
WhatsApp, which is owned parents to collect into a useful Jewish affinity group at her told me that if you don’t have
by Facebook parent Meta Plat- chat group. children’s school, 6th-grade a side text it means someone
forms, is one of the favorites Vanessa Bennett juggles five text chains totaling 85 people. “The mom group chat that parents and playdate par- is side texting about you.”
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WORLD NEWS
JORDAN TURKEY
KHALIL MAZRAAWI/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
The U.S. president also pendently verified. U.S. offi- the so-called two-state solu-
praised the Egyptian leader as cials say that the death toll is tion that would create a Pales-
“completely cooperative.” likely between 100 and 300 tinian state alongside Israel.
“The bottom line is that Al people. As concerns intensify that
Sisi deserves some real Biden reiterated on the conflict could spread
credit,” he said. He said his Wednesday the U.S.’s unwav- through the region, the U.S.
newly appointed envoy for the ering support for Israel follow- hopes Biden’s trip will serve
humanitarian effort, former ing the Oct. 7 assault on the President Biden stressed U.S. support for Israel in talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. as a warning to any third par-
ambassador to Turkey David country by Hamas militants. ties—whether they are other
Satterfield, had “my authority “The fact is that Israel, as summit with Biden in Jordan dards and minimize the civil- from power. A land incursion countries like Iran or militant
to do what is needed to get it they respond to these attacks, in protest against U.S. support ian death toll in Gaza. into Gaza is likely to signifi- groups such as Lebanon’s
done.” has to continue to ensure you for Israel. “The world is looking. Is- cantly raise the death toll of Iran-backed Hezbollah—that
The Israeli prime minister’s have what you need to defend Biden and his entourage rael has a value set, like the the current war, which is the U.S. was prepared to act if
office earlier said Israel would yourself, and we’re going to touched down amid a politi- United States does and other higher than any in Gaza in the they join the conflict.
allow humanitarian deliveries make sure that occurs,” Biden cal maelstrom, with street democracies and they are past two decades. In a sign of growing ten-
via Rafah, provided the aid said at his meeting with Ne- protests raging in cities across looking to see what we are go- Israel hasn’t yet laid out sions between Tehran and
didn’t end up in Hamas’s tanyahu, who greeted him at the region and anger directed ing to do, to the people of Is- how it will use military power Washington, the U.S. has
hands. The president also an- the airport. at the U.S. over its backing of rael, their courage, their com- to accomplish its political aim shelved planned indirect talks
nounced the U.S. would pro- “I want to thank you for Israel. The tumult threatened mitment, their bravery is of toppling Hamas, nor what with Iran, people with direct
vide $100 million in humani- coming here today and for the to undermine Biden’s efforts stunning, it’s really stunning— its plans for Gaza are after the knowledge of the talks said.
tarian aid to the people of unequivocal support you’re to free hostages and create I’m proud to be here,” he said fighting ends. U.S. officials had said before
Gaza and the West Bank. giving Israel over these trying safe passage out of Gaza for in Tel Aviv. On the return trip home the Hamas attacks on Israel
In less than eight hours on times,” Netanyahu told Biden. foreign nationals. Netanyahu said Israel is do- later, Biden said U.S. and Is- that those talks, which would
the ground in Tel Aviv, Biden Biden plans to deliver a for- At a demonstration outside ing everything it can to keep raeli officials had had a long have touched on Iran’s nuclear
met with senior Israeli leaders eign-policy address to Ameri- the Israeli Embassy in Amman, civilians out of harm’s way, discussion, including between program, were due to take
and gave remarks, but didn’t cans on Thursday night. protester Amir Abu Mayaleh but added that “this will be a military leaders, about “alter- place this month in Oman.
meet with Arab leaders after a The U.S. president’s high- said: “He should not come different kind of war, because natives” to a ground invasion A State Department spokes-
summit in Amman, Jordan, stakes trip to the Middle East here to Jordan. The U.S. Em- Hamas is a different kind of of Gaza. person didn’t confirm that,
was canceled in the wake of had begun to splinter before bassy is not welcome here, be- enemy.” In Israel, Biden also met but said Washington has
the Tuesday blast in Gaza. he even left Washington. The cause they support Israel.” Biden’s visit came as Israel with families of victims in the “nothing to preview.”
The explosion at the Al- leaders of Egypt, Jordan and Biden sought to combine is preparing an expected Oct. 7 attacks, as well as Is- —Sabrina Siddiqui,
Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza the Palestinian Authority, messages of staunch support ground assault into the Gaza raeli first responders. “We’re Vivian Salama, Laurence
has sparked protests around blaming Israel for the hospital for Israel with an appeal to Strip that Israeli officials said working with partners Norman and Summer Said
the Middle East and prompted blast, pulled out of a planned uphold humanitarian stan- will aim to remove Hamas throughout the region, pursu- contributed to this article.
.
WORLD NEWS
U.S. Grandmother
Strives to Flee Gaza
BY ANAS BABA Americans in Gaza, citing media
AND STEPHEN KALIN reports that the border with
Egypt was expected to open at 9
RAFAH, Gaza Strip—When a.m. “If you assess it to be safe,
Israel’s retaliatory airstrikes on you may wish to move closer to
Gaza started last week, retired the Rafah border crossing,” the
American schoolteacher Wafa message said early Monday.
al-Saqqa, who had come to “How the hell I’m going to
visit her ailing father, resolved assess my own safety?” said
to stick it out, figuring his up- Saqqa. “According to what? To
scale northern neighborhood the bombs and to missiles go-
was unlikely to be targeted. ing down? Or to the number of
Then her brother-in-law people that are being killed?”
was killed and bombs de- Diplomats with whom Saqqa
stroyed her sister’s home and spoke at the embassy encour-
Saqqa decided she should aged her to try to cross the
leave. She headed south to- border, but said they couldn’t
ward the Egyptian border, guarantee it would open or for
ABED KHALED/ASSOCIATED PRESS
tinues to collect information on Biden, during his visit, said the site Wednesday, was cited fore the hospital blast, 3,000
the incident, she said. Israel’s version of events ap- by Israel as evidence that the people had been killed in Gaza,
peared more accurate based blast wasn’t an airstrike. according to the Hamas-run
on information he had from Spendley said that kind of Health Ministry.
Watch a Video the Defense Department. damage appeared more consis- —Summer Said, Daniel
Scan this code “Based on what I’ve seen, it tent with a fireball from a Michaels, Vivian Salama,
for a video of appears as though it was done rocket rather than the kinds of Michael R. Gordon, Chao
the moment of by the other team,” he said. weapons that Israel’s air force Deng, Fatima AbdulKarim
the blast at the “But there’s a lot of people out uses, such as Joint Direct Ac- and Dov Lieber
Gaza hospital. there not sure, so we’ve got a tion Munition, or JDAM, contributed to this article. Wafa al-Saqqa was visiting her ill father when war broke out.
.
A10 | Thursday, October 19, 2023 * **** THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
WORLD NEWS
steps to encourage home Chinese jet fighters and leveled are common and often accom-
sales, have helped stabilize the its most direct accusation that panied by radio warnings from
economy, putting it on track senior Chinese leaders are or- Chinese ground stations to
to hit Beijing’s official growth chestrating the incidents. stay away from sensitive areas,
target of around 5% this year. In maneuvers over the East such as artificial islands in the
The report allayed, at least China Sea and South China South China Sea where Beijing
temporarily, fears of a wors- Retail sales helped drive growth, but economists warn long-term prospects are darkening. Sea this summer, one Chinese has built military facilities.
ening economic crisis. jet fighter deployed flares American pilots say they of-
Still, economists warn nese economy surpass the China's GDP, change from a decade, said Adam Wolfe, near a U.S. air- ten have trouble
China’s economy remains frag- U.S.’s in overall size. For many year earlier emerging-market economist at craft and an- figuring out
ile and its long-term prospects economists, the question had Absolute Strategy Research, other per- whether the
are darkening. In recent weeks, long been a matter of when,
3Q 2023
4.9% who argues that local govern- formed an Pilots on U.S. Chinese jet
20%
a bevy of economists have low- not if, the Chinese economy ments may be forced to slow aerobatic roll aircraft say fighters are fol-
ered their forecasts for China’s would surpass that of the U.S. their investments in infrastruc- around a U.S. lowing a prede-
longer-term growth trajecto- As recently as 2021, when 15
ture projects and cut back on aircraft. Several provocative termined course
ries, even as they raised their China’s hard-line approach to industrial subsidies as a result. flew as close as of action and
shorter-term predictions. containing the Covid-19 pan- 10 “The overall drag on a few dozen
actions are how close they
The International Monetary demic allowed it to enjoy a re- growth could be more severe feet to U.S. common. intend to get. On
Fund this month lowered its bound, many economists were 5 next year,” said Wolfe, who planes, accord- an American pa-
forecast for China’s growth moving forward their timelines. predicts that growth may ing to the ac- trol flight over
next year to 4.2%, down from Now, many economists 0 slump to 3% or less in the counts, images the South China
4.5%. The IMF projected Chi- have shifted their timelines coming years. and video from the Pentagon. Sea in February that The Wall
nese growth would drop to back again—and many no lon- –5 There is an emerging con- American military officials Street Journal joined, the pilots
3.7% in 2027 in its latest eco- ger think China will eclipse sensus among economists that say aggressive behavior by repeatedly sought to make con-
nomic outlook report, down the U.S. at all. –10 another significant factor in Chinese fighter pilots reflects tact with a nearby Chinese jet
from a forecast of 4.6% in its Economists pointed to a China’s darkening outlook is a pattern of increasing asser- fighter, without response.
2019 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23
report last October. range of factors, including an the residual impact from strict tiveness by China across the At the Pentagon on Tues-
Oxford Economics, a U.K.- extended hangover from the Source: Macrobond Covid lockdowns. Some are Asia-Pacific region. Beijing day, Ely Ratner, assistant sec-
based research firm, last week effects of Xi’s zero-Covid poli- beginning to question whether has clashed with India over retary of defense for Indo-Pa-
revised its expectations for cies, rising geopolitical ten- shown fresh signs of distress. China’s economy will ever re- land-border claims, swarmed cific security, said the
growth over the next five years sions with the U.S. and delays On Wednesday, Country Gar- turn to the levels of activity it jet fighters and warships near episodes were part of a “cen-
to around 4%, down from 4.5% by Chinese policy makers in den, once considered one of saw before the pandemic. Taiwan and triggered confron- tralized and concerted cam-
previously. Even more pessimis- addressing some of the coun- the country’s most stable de- Various indicators show that tations with Philippine coast- paign” to try to force the U.S.
tic is Morgan Stanley, where try’s structural imbalances. velopers, missed a final dead- economic activities, including guard ships. and its allies into curtailing
economists said in a September One of the biggest factors, line to make an interest pay- investments and industrial out- More than 180 of the close military flights through inter-
report that they expect China’s though, is the unraveling of ment on a dollar bond. put in China have stabilized at encounters with jet fighters national airspace near China.
growth to slow in the coming the property sector that has There are signs that recent around 5% below the prepan- have involved American air- He said the American mili-
years, dropping to 3% by 2030. fueled its growth for decades. easing policies are losing their demic trend, said Louise Loo, craft over the past two years, tary wouldn’t be deterred. The
“If investors want to worry, Home sales remain in the potency. New home prices in lead economist at Oxford Eco- but China has confronted other U.S. will “continue to fly, sail,
worry about the long term, doldrums despite provincial 70 major Chinese cities fell at nomics. “This all suggests a big- nations as well. On Monday, a and operate safely and respon-
not the short term,” said and local governments loosen- a faster pace in September, ger-than-expected permanent Chinese jet fighter flew close sibly, wherever international
Derek Scissors, a senior fellow ing restrictions and implement- and more cities reported price output loss to the economy, to a Canadian patrol aircraft law allows,” Ratner said.
at the American Enterprise In- ing other favorable policies to declines compared with Au- likely due to a structural shift over the East China Sea and China’s Defense Ministry
stitute, a conservative think entice buyers. In the long run, gust, China’s statistics bureau in spending and investment released flares, according to didn’t respond to a request for
tank in Washington. an aging population and al- said Thursday. patterns,” she said last week. video footage of the incident. comment. The defense minis-
The rapidly deteriorating ready elevated homeownership As a share of GDP, Chinese Canada’s defense minister ter said in June that if other
growth trajectory has implica- could undercut demand. local governments’ fiscal re- China developer skips last called the Chinese action dan- countries wished to avoid
tions for one of Chinese leader The country’s big develop- sources—which rely heavily on deadline on debt................ B1 gerous and reckless, while a risky encounters, they should
Xi Jinping’s long-cherished po- ers, who were long at the cen- home sales—have deteriorated Heard on the Street: China Chinese Foreign Ministry stop conducting reconnais-
litical goals—seeing the Chi- ter of that growth model, have to their worst level in over a stabilizes amid woes...... B12 spokeswoman said Canada sance operations near China.
.
PERSONAL JOURNAL.
© 2023 Dow Jones & Company. All Rights Reserved. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Thursday, October 19, 2023 | A11
A
ever did that). big assignments or pro- he doesn’t mind if hybrid employ-
cup of coffee in the Coffee badging seems like motions it is still man- ees coffee badge on the days when
majors is the term for a way to hack the RTO sys- agers’ natural impulse they come to the office.
a short baseball career tem, but there are flaws, not to favor those they “We also manage to exacting
in the big leagues. Now the least of which is the know best. results,” he adds. Fall short, and
some white-collar term’s fuzzy etymology. Ur- In a recent survey of brace for a performance-improve-
workers are leaving ban Dictionary says the U.S. chief executives by ment plan. “This absolutely may
the office almost as soon as they badge in the name is the KPMG, almost two- include more time in office.”
arrive and calling the practice building-access card that a thirds said they envi- If you’re ever let go, you might
FROM TOP: PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY SAM KELLY/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, ISTOCK (3); KEITH STYRCULA
“coffee badging.” worker uses to swipe into sion employees working wish you had spent more time
The difference is the ballplayer the office just long enough in offices full-time three building relationships in the office,
wishes he could stay; the people to sip a mug of joe; others years from now, and says John Cornely, who works in
ditching their desks would rather say that’s too literal and 90% said they’ll reward Charleston, S.C., as a territory
not show up in the first place. claim the badge is actually office goers with favor- manager at iRhythm Technologies,
We’ve entered the gamesman- an imaginary award for able assignments, raises a medical device company.
ship phase of the return-to-office showing face—like a Boy and promotions. Before his business career,
battle between bosses and their Scout merit badge pinned in Bailing out of the of- Cornely was a professional base-
subordinates. Instead of ignoring the boss’s mind instead of on fice early may bring the ball player, mostly in the minors.
in-person mandates, as many peo- a sash. thrill of bending the A right-handed pitcher, he saw
ple did when enforcement was lax, Never trust your profes- rules, though managers one inning of action in the majors
some are finding ways to follow sional fate to a buzzword. are bound to notice if on April 29, 2015. That was it. He
the letter, but not the spirit. Remember how quiet quit- people are habitually jokes that his cup of coffee in the
They’re going in on days when ting soon became quiet fir- absent in the afternoon. big leagues was more like a shot
most co-workers don’t, taking off ing? Just because everybody More companies are of espresso.
early and creating afternoon dead else is doing it doesn’t mean there playing the political games are starting to track whether employ- Imagine how he feels about
zones or, in the extreme, barely won’t be consequences down the sometimes as important as merit. ees swipe into the office, as well coffee badging.
clocking in at all. line. That’s just the way American cor- as how long they stay. Businesses “I’ve had the opportunity to
Many companies’ policies re- “It’s highly likely that you’re porate culture works.” that initially embraced remote mentor people in the business
quire employees to work a certain headed for a mediocre career,” Styrcula says the business envi- work are calling employees back world,” Cornely says. “I tell them
number of days in person without warns Keith Styrcula, founder and ronment has changed somewhat to offices, at least part-time. In to make the most of opportunities,
specifying the hours. People can chief executive of Glasstower Digi- since he was a young banker at one of the stiffest new policies, and going to the office is part of
make brief appearances, long tal, a financial technology firm in UBS and JPMorgan Chase, but one the gaming company Roblox this that, because you never know when
enough to be seen by execs and Greenwich, Conn. “Face time and thing hasn’t: When similarly quali- week told some remote workers to they’re going to get taken away.”
M
eeting the client in person travel improved. Dealing with delays ened the approval process to
and on time has become and crowded airports during a busi- book travel to make it easier
more challenging for road ness trip can be harder to stomach for workers to reschedule
warriors with the rising number of in the era of Zoom meetings. when problems arise.
air-traffic delays and full flights. “If your daughter is expecting to Corporate travelers are
During the first nine months of go to Disney World, you’re going to booking trips much farther in
2023, more than 22% of flights to Disney World. You’ll put up with the advance to ensure they have
or from U.S. airports were delayed, delays and the trouble,” says U.S. the best options for flights,
according to data from FlightAware. Travel Association CEO Geoff Free- says Avi Meir, CEO of travel-
That’s up from roughly 17% during man. “The business traveler is the management company Trav-
the same period in 2019. first to say, ‘I’m not putting up with A third of business travelers reported that they are taking fewer trips elPerk.
Airlines also continue to operate the hassle.’ ” than before 2020, according to a U.S. Travel Association survey. At ZS Associates, a man-
fewer flights in 2023 than they did agement-consulting firm with more
before the pandemic. That has left An unexpected journey than 13,000 workers globally, em-
travelers with fewer options, particu- David Munk flew to South Caro- Gillespie, a travel-industry consul- So much for Sunday ployee training around corporate
larly in the event of delays and can- lina for what was meant to be a tant. “More risk weeds out low- Business trips require more time travel has changed. It now stresses
cellations. Corporate travel members, one-day business trip this summer. value trips first.” because of potential delays and downloading airlines’ mobile apps in
travel agents and business travelers Then his flight got canceled. Travel budgets and eco-friendly cancellations, corporate travel man- advance and using in-app chat func-
say they are rethinking how to ap- Munk hadn’t returned his rental considerations also weigh on busi- agers say. tions if a flight is canceled, says Su-
proach work travel as a result. car yet and decided to drive back to ness travel. Many companies have Flying to and from the site of a zanne Boyan, the company’s travel
Spending on business travel his home in New Jersey along with pledged to reduce their carbon foot- business meeting in a single day is and meetings manager.
should reach prepandemic levels by some fellow stranded passengers. print in recent years. risky. People who travel frequently Boyan says air-travel issues arise
the end of 2024, according to pro- The overnight journey took nearly Reducing business travel is one for work say they have adapted by frequently for the employees she
jections from the Global Business 10 hours and cost around $400, in- way to do that. Travel continues to giving themselves a buffer and fly- helps. Her team has access to funds
Travel Association. Previous predic- cluding a brief hotel stay, Munk cost more than it did before the ing to their destination the day be- that they can use to grant employ-
tions suggested the milestone says. His company footed the bill. pandemic. Even if a company has fore to provide a cushion if anything ees access to airport lounges if their
wouldn’t happen until 2026. Leisure “I extended my rental, made the same budget for corporate goes wrong. Some business leaders flight is delayed or canceled. With
travel is already humming along at some new friends on the way home travel as four years ago, that money have gone as far as to make this a lounges so full these days, ZS now
2019 spending levels, thanks to peo- and it was a great experience,” says doesn’t go as far now. policy for their workers. requires that the employee confirm
ple planning “revenge” trips they Munk, who works as a regional Hotels and airlines still are up- Debbie Fierst, chief executive offi- that the club is still accepting guests
had put on hold. manager for Dynamic Design Asso- beat about the business-travel re- cer of Logical Imagination Group, a before issuing the pass, she says.
Survey data suggests that the ciates, a commercial interior-design covery. Delta Air Lines President technology consulting, training and “It’s becoming a little bit more
business recovery would happen firm. “I really just try to roll with the Glen Hauenstein said during a re- development firm, now mandates challenging to mitigate the issues
even faster if not for unpredictable punches.” cent earnings call that return-to-of- that her staff aim to travel by mid- that flight delays cause,” Boyan
air travel. Many business travelers can con- fice initiatives will boost corporate day at the latest. The policy has its says.
A third of business travelers re- trol whether they must go on the travel demand. Hotels in markets trade-offs. Fierst, who lives near Co-
ported that they are taking fewer road. such as New York that rely on busi- lumbus, Ohio, often flies out on Sun- United revamps boarding to
trips than before 2020, according to “The traveler may well recognize ness travel say that bookings from days before Monday meetings with speed it up......................................... B3
a survey conducted in August for that the trip that they’re consider- the tech and financial-services sec- clients. Delta changes its frequent-flier
ISTOCK
the U.S. Travel Association. The sur- ing taking is low-value,” says Scott tors have improved. “I used to be able to spend all program again ................................. B3
.
PERSONAL JOURNAL.
D
include hand-crank radios, face
isaster preparedness, masks, nonperishable food, first-
once the province of aid kits and other gear in their
fringe groups and so- bags.
called preppers con- Yeti recently teamed with emer-
vinced doomsday was gency-prep company Uncharted
at hand, has a new Supply Co. for a $730 survival kit
face. that includes a Mylar tent and wa-
A renewed interest in self-reli- ter-filtration system. Uncharted’s
ance is driving city dwellers and chief executive, Christian Schauf,
suburbanites to stock their homes says the company is on track for its
and cars for emergencies, owners best sales year since its founding in
of disaster-preparedness busi- 2016.
nesses say. Blame supply-chain Alexjandria Edwards says keep-
shortages and the shock of empty ing a tent, sleeping bag and water-
grocery shelves during the pan- filtration system in her New York
demic, or more recent natural di- City apartment can sometimes feel
sasters and tense global events. silly. After viewing videos about
Those business owners and sur- emergency preparedness on social
vival-training coaches say they are media, the 28-year-old marketing
seeing a new kind of customer manager at an arts nonprofit pur-
looking to make sure they can get chased a disaster pack on Amazon
through a few days or weeks with- for about $100.
out power or fresh water in the She has also been watching on-
event of a flood, fire or other ca- line tutorials on homeopathic heal-
lamity. These customers don’t fit ing and learning to grow her own
the stereotype of so-called dooms- windowsill vegetable garden. A ve-
day preppers stocking bunkers gan, she worries about the avail-
with ammunition and gas masks to ability of food she can eat in a di-
survive an apoca- saster.
lypse. When severe flooding shut
Surveys and rising down parts of the New York City
sales of prefabricated transit system in September, Ed-
disaster kits indicate wards says, she felt safer knowing
that Americans are she had enough supplies to shelter
more apt to keep in place.
emergency supplies The National Oceanic and At-
on hand than they mospheric Administration reports
were a few years ago. that 122 separate disasters in the
Roughly a third of U.S. between 2016 and 2022 have
the 2,179 U.S. adults killed at least 5,000 people for
surveyed by finan- over $1 trillion in collective dam-
cial-services company age.
Finder in April said
they spent an aver- Changing
age of $149 on items demographics
including nonperish- John Ramey, founder of self-re-
able food, medical liance training site The Prepared,
supplies and cases of says his audience includes a mix of
water in the past people of all races, genders and
year. That is up from political persuasions. The break-
CLOCKWISE FROM TOP: F. MARTIN RAMIN/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL; ALEXJANDRIA EDWARDS; PREPPI
about 20% who said down is a departure from what he
they did so in 2020. describes as early prepping com-
Those newly pack- munities’ makeup of primarily
ing go-bags and plan- right-leaning white men.
ning emergency es- “People are becoming more and
cape routes say they more aware of the problems in the
used to consider such world and how fallible things are,”
preparations as Alexjandria Edwards purchased a disaster pack on Amazon. Preppi says Ramey, who lives in Boulder,
overly fearful. Now, says year-to-date sales for its kits, left, are up 29% from 2022 Colo.
they say not doing so Kasen James changed his mind-
is naive. set on preparedness after spending
Rick Leesmann wants to be After the Covid-19 pandemic, year—or catches his boys using the popped up in recent years to meet a panicked 10 minutes running
clear: He isn’t a bunker guy. the wars in Ukraine and now Is- flashlights as Jedi lightsabers. what they say is demand from peo- around his Morgan Hill, Calif.,
“I’m a PlayStation 5, love-my- rael, along with wildfires in Can- ple who want to be ready for an home rounding up his cat, clothes
comfort guy,” the 39-year-old ada and Lahaina, Leesmann says A widespread shift emergency, without having to do and medications after a wildfire
healthcare information-technology he avoids panicking about his fam- Reality shows such as “Dooms- the assembly and research them- evacuation order in the summer of
worker says. If you told him a few ily’s safety by focusing on what he day Preppers” portray disaster-ob- selves. 2020. Now the 30-year-old copy-
years ago that he would have four can control. sessed people preparing for the Preppi, whose kits look like writer keeps about $200 of sup-
prepacked “bug-out bags” hanging “It’s taking rational steps to en- worst, but many people now pre- classic doctor’s bags, reports year- plies and a few hundred dollars of
in his Kansas City, Mo., pantry, he sure we have the ability to act paring for emergencies say they to-date sales up 29% from 2022. cash in his home and car. He also
wouldn’t have believed it. They are quickly in those moments,” he simply want to check an item off For Judy—whose bright-orange di- laid out a wildfire evacuation plan.
filled with snacks, flashlights, wa- says. He thinks about the go bags their mental worry list. saster packs start at $195—year- “I can’t control what happens,
ter and coloring books for his two only when he checks the batteries Numerous companies selling over-year sales quadrupled in but I can have the peace of mind
young sons. and food expiration dates twice a boutique preparedness packs have June, when wildfire smoke blan- of being prepared,” he says.
Reluctance 25-34
55+
35-54
30
administrator of
leave claims for em-
ployers. Many states
To Call In Sick 25
have passed laws in
the past decade re-
quiring employers to
grant sick days to
Continued from Page One tend to family mem-
as Stellantis, complain such worker 20 bers, too, and now
absences are driving up costs. The more than 80% of
Detroit carmaker has repeatedly private companies
brought up the issue as contract with paid time off do
15
talks with the United Auto Workers so, he estimated.
proceed, saying it lost 10.9% of 2019 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 More companies also
hourly worker time in 2022 because Note: White-collar workers with access to paid time off
provide unlimited
of unplanned absenteeism. Source: Gusto analysis of U.S. payroll data from 300,000 sick time than they
Before the pandemic, Darren small and midsize businesses did a decade ago, so
Smith muscled through any illness. fewer employees feel
At one point, the 50-year-old proj- they have to scrimp.
ect manager fell asleep at work one or two sick days a year, she A still-tight labor
while on medication for a shattered said. Now, it is more like three to market means com-
ankle, waking up to keyboard inden- five. panies can’t be
tations on his face. Then in 2020, “The accounting team is grouchy when em-
he was laid off. not happy with me providing Darren Smith, with his son, ployees call in sick, said Kerri Dye,
“That was my epiphany,” said this time off because it’s a li- says his view on sick time has who until recently managed several
Smith, who now works at a West ability for the company,” she changed. Lisa Frydenlund, left, Starbucks locations in Sacramento.
Chicago-based pump-repair facility said of the extra cost of welcomes the more expansive Dye said that she makes a point of
as a project manager. “I gave you sometimes adding staffing to attitude toward sick time. encouraging workers to use sick days
everything, and you kicked me to ensure adequate coverage for less conventional reasons, such
the street.” amid absences. as recuperating after a travel-inten-
On a recent Monday, after work- Donna Ruscingno, who taken the day off, Matos said. sive vacation. “You get such loyalty
ing a few hours, Smith sent his leads a team of around 20 On the other hand, workers and buy-in from your team when you
boss a message asking if he could employees as chief account- miss out on needed rest and show them you care,” she said.
take a half-day sick. His boss gave ing officer at real-estate are less effective while working Early in her career at another
permission, and Smith walked out. company LivingNY, said she ill: “It’s virtual presenteeism.” employer, Dye said she once passed
“It was a gorgeous day, I just thinks job-hopping has made out in the bin of an industrial ice
wasn’t in the mood to work,” he workers feel less guilty Definition of a sick day maker at an airport cafe after
said. about calling in sick and Lisa Frydenlund, who until showing up to work with pneumo-
leaving co-workers to pick up this month was an HR officer nia. Her boss was put off by the
Younger generations their slack. managing around 300 employ- suggestion that she stay home to
Younger workers used to follow “If you don’t stay long ees at two senior-services agen- recover, she said. “It was like I had
the example of their older peers enough to build camaraderie cies in Sacramento, Calif., has suggested I drown a bag of kittens.”
and come in even when under the with co-workers, you’re more welcomed the more expansive Dye left the job not long after.
weather, said Crystal Williams, chief apt to take the time,” said attitude toward sick time. She More employers are coming to
FROM TOP: DARREN SMITH; LISA FRYDENLUND
human resources officer at global Ruscingno, adding that she recently used a sick day after a view sick days as a benefit to help
business payments company Fleet- sees more younger workers, series of frustrating encounters workers cope with the unexpected—
cor, which has around 5,000 U.S. in particular, taking all their with new workplace software. whether that’s parental health is-
employees. She suspects early-ca- sick days. “I don’t think there’s the though maybe I’m sniffling or “I told my boss, I hit a wall, I sues, school closures or a more run-
reer employees aren’t taking cues same work ethic.” coughing,” says Kenneth Matos, a can’t be here,” she said, adding that of-the-mill employee cold, said Rich
from older co-workers in the same Sick days are rising even though global director at employee analyt- stress can trigger migraines for her. Fuerstenberg, senior partner in the
way now that five days a week at telework has made it easier for ics software company Culture Amp. “I wasn’t going to be purposeful, so health and benefits practice at con-
the office is no longer the norm. workers to stay online while under Companies can benefit if workers why come in?” sulting firm Mercer.
Before the pandemic, Fleetcor the weather. still field emails and take meetings Sick days now cover kids’ and “It’s a much more expansive
workers in their 20s and 30s took “I’m not contagious via Zoom, when they previously would have family needs, too, said David Setz- catchall,” he said.
.
ARTS IN REVIEW
BY LAURA JACOBS York, living in Harlem and running
a series of shops on the Upper
I
Winterthur, Del. East Side; sometimes she part-
n 1964, the Saturday Evening nered with stores such as Saks
Post called the couturier Fifth Avenue.
Ann Lowe “society’s best- Lowe was born in either 1898
kept secret.” At that point or 1889. As Ms. Way writes in her
she’d been dressing women wall text, “Lowe’s life and work
of the Social Register for de- spanned the Jim Crow era, the
cades—first designing their white Great Migration, two world wars
debutante gowns, then their white and the Great Depression, the Civil
wedding gowns, then their sea- Rights Movement, and several mo-
sonal ballgowns, then their daugh- mentous fashion changes.” The
ters’ debutante gowns, and so on. show includes a handful of
Just as the Grace Church wedding uniquely cut day dresses from the
was de rigueur for the gilded mar- 1930s, but it was evening pieces
riages of New York’s 400, the Ann that brought the families Du Pont,
Lowe wedding dress was a mid- Auchincloss, Vander Poel, Lodge
century must. How much of a se- and Hamilton to Lowe’s show-
cret was she? Lowe created the room. No one else would have the
most loved wedding dress in same dress, and compared to Paris
American history: the simple in she was underpriced, never charg-
silhouette yet intricately detailed ing enough to make a meaningful
gown that Jacqueline Bouvier profit.
wore, in 1953, when she married Winterthur’s gallery of debu-
the young Sen. John F. Kennedy. In tante gowns and fantasy dresses
all the press describing that day in opens into a large room full of
Newport, R.I., and for years after- wedding gowns. Working with her
ward, almost no one put a name brides, Lowe designed with re-
to the dress. Why? Perhaps be- straint, or with historical refer-
cause Lowe was black. ences, or with a feeling for the
The Winterthur exhibition “Ann moment, as we see in the 1968
Lowe: American Couturier” has gown for Elizabeth Mance, its lace
been a long time coming. It was insets “flower power” playful. The
conceived by the scholar Margaret show’s jewel is Jackie Bouvier’s
Powell, who made Lowe the sub- wedding gown, reproduced by
ject of her 2012 master’s thesis in Katya Roelse, an instructor and
the history of decorative arts. designer at the University of Dela-
From 2013 to 2016, she worked at ware, because the actual garment
Winterthur, where curatorial staff is too fragile to be shown.
supported her continuing research Bouvier is said to have asked
on Lowe. Three years later, at only for a “tremendous dress, a typical
43, she died. Committed to Pow- Ann Lowe dress,” and that is what
ell’s exhibition, Winterthur passed she got. A portrait neckline
the baton to Elizabeth Way, asso- curves balletically into small off-
ciate curator of costume at the the-shoulder sleeves—a Lowe in-
Museum at FIT. Ms. Way has now novation that was more becoming
brought this pivotal show to frui- EXHIBITION REVIEW than a cap sleeve and allowed the
tion. arms to move. Remembering a
Of High Society
stood. Walk into the exhibition small clusters of wax orange blos-
space at Winterthur and you’re soms in the center. The gown’s
immediately dazzled by an angelic decorative brio is distinctly 1860s
gown of palest blush silk and tulle, America, especially the many
its voluminous Second Empire rows of gathered swags on the
skirt graced from the waist down lower third of the skirt. Was that
with a corolla of diamanté bead- Ann Lowe, the oft-overlooked black designer who created Jacqueline also conscious?
work and silver stars. Made in Painted in shades of gray, pink
1961 for Lynn Neville Robertson of
Kennedy’s wedding gown, is the focus of a sumptuous show and aubergine, the galleries look
CLOCKWISE FROM TOP: WINTERTHUR MUSEUM, GARDEN & LIBRARY (2); JOHNSON PUBLISHING COMPANY ARCHIVE
Omaha, Neb., it was first worn to like dress salons, with plenty of
the Ak-Sar-Ben coronation ball; in space around the pieces. There are
1962, it was Robertson’s wedding delights in every room—for in-
dress. One thinks of Adrian’s pink stance, examples of Lowe’s hand-
gown for MGM’s Glinda the Good made silks flowers which were a
Witch—minus the giant puff specialty; two of the miniature
sleeves. Lowe did fantasy with First Lady inauguration dresses
consummate taste. she made for dolls that were
All her creations were custom toured by Evyan Perfumes; and a
originals, made with techniques queenly beaded caftan coat that
that matched those of the Paris Lowe herself wore in 1964, on
couture and sometimes improved “The Mike Douglas Show.” She re-
on them. “She does the same tired in 1972, and died nine years
amazing kind of job that Mainbo- later. The exhibition’s last room
cher does,” said Eugenia Sheppard contains glittering works by black
of the New York Herald Tribune in designers who honor Lowe’s place
1964. But where Mainbocher was a in American fashion—and now the
fashion insider—he began his ca- rest of us will too.
reer as the editor of Paris Vogue—
Lowe, the granddaughter of an en- Ann Lowe: American Couturier
slaved woman, learned to sew as a Winterthur Museum, Garden & Li-
child in her family’s dressmaking brary, through Jan. 7, 2024
shop, and began her career cloth-
ing women in Montgomery, Ala., Ms. Jacobs is the Arts Intel Report
and Tampa, Fla. In 1928, to test Clockwise from top: Ann Lowe’s 1961 Ak-Sar-Ben dress for Lynn Neville Robertson; bodice of a 1961 Ak-Sar-Ben editor for the weekly newsletter
her talent, Lowe moved to New gown; and the designer in the December 1966 edition of Ebony magazine Air Mail.
with conventional structures, and larger themes. Her albums have ex- cal ones such as Galileo. ing, and the look on my uncle’s face. Mr. Johnson writes about jazz for
that is the case at the outset of plored grief and loss following the Ms. Davis, who is 42 years old, With one glance he communicated the Journal.
.
A14 | Thursday, October 19, 2023 * **** THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
SPORTS
NFL Stars in the Olympics?
BY LOUISE RADNOFSKY they learn as quickly? They proba-
AND ANDREW BEATON bly can, right, and they’d probably
be amazing.”
T
he National Football League Hallenbeck said that he is al-
propelled the plucky upstart
sport of flag football into
the Olympics. Now organizers are
opening up the door for the big-
The Door Is Open ready talking with his counter-
parts in basketball and ice hockey
about how they have handled this
situation with the NBA and NHL
gest NFL stars to play in the Shortly after flag football was added to the 2028 Los Angeles Games, when the Olympics have come
Games. calling. That could include identi-
The U.S. already has a men’s organizers signaled that NFL players will be able to compete fying key players two years in ad-
national flag football team that’s vance to give them experience
the best in the world. It’s also playing together.
home to the planet’s best tackle Although the NFL has champi-
football players, some of whom oned flag football—even remaking
have already hinted that they are the Pro Bowl into a flag game—as
intrigued by the possibility of a way to grow the sport, especially
playing when its cousin sport ar- among women, the sport is run by
rives in Los Angeles in 2028. Hallenbeck’s USA Football. The or-
And now flag football’s national ganization, sensing an uptick in
governing body—and the NFL interest, has published instruc-
along with it—is greenlighting the tions on how to “Rep The Flag” on
chance for the league’s biggest its site.
stars competing for gold medals in For selection to 2024 teams, a
the summer before they spend the digital combine opens later this
fall and winter vying to win the month, USA Football says. Then
Super Bowl. comes the national team trials,
“Absolutely the door is wide then national team training camp
open,” said Scott Hallenbeck, chief ahead of international competition
executive of USA Football, which opportunities.
is in charge of selecting and orga- Peter O’Reilly, the NFL’s Execu-
nizing the team. “Naturally I tive Vice President, Club Business,
would say it can include NFL play- Major Events and International,
ers, current or former.” also supported trying to get the
There are obvious hurdles to league’s players into the Games.
Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jack- While he noted the various logisti-
son dominating the best flag foot- cal hurdles and different stake-
ball players that countries like holders who would have to ap-
Austria have to offer. The Olym- prove the player participation, he
pics take place right when NFL also called the Olympics the “pin-
training camps get going. Parties nacle of sport globally” and said
such as the league, teams and the they would try to work through
players union would have to get those issues. He also outpointed
behind players’ preparation—and the over 100 foreign-born players
then their participation. And this on teams this season, meaning
is a sport so obsessed with pro- NFL talent could be stocking flag
tecting its star talent that Chiefs squads across the globe.
brass has previously said Ma- Miami Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill, center, in action during the 2023 Pro Bowl flag football game. “The player interest is real and
homes is no longer allowed to play palpable,” O’Reilly said.
basketball. mel and protect quarterbacks, it they just accept me.” World Games, generally consid- Some of the biggest profes-
But even before flag football’s values speed and elusiveness. Hill, Unfortunately for Gronk, there ered the highest level of competi- sional sports on the planet spent
inclusion, for both men and who’s 5-foot-10 on a good day and may be tryouts, and there are also tion for sports that aren’t in the years lobbying organizers of the
women, in the 2028 Games had the only player in the league to be players like Housh. That’s the Olympics. 2028 Olympic Games in Los Ange-
been finalized, big names began tracked running with the football Hallenbeck added that while les to get a berth to another sport-
signaling their excitement. at over 22 miles per hour this sea- there are undoubtedly NFL players ing megaevent. And from compet-
“Calling all @NFL guys let’s son, would fit right in. who would thrive at the no-con- ing offers from baseball, cricket
bring one home,” Dolphins re- So would the likes of Mahomes. ’Count me in already!’ tact version of the game, flag re- and flag—as well as softball, la-
ceiver Tyreek Hill wrote on X, the His creative playmaking can look retired tight end quires a different skill-set—so it’s crosse and squash—the host com-
platform previously known as like it was ripped out of a high- no guarantee in his mind gridiron mittee picked…everyone.
Twitter, within moments of the LA light reel of flag football, which Rob Gronkowski superstars will take over every There’s no secret that the NFL’s
organizing committee’s announce- features a quarterback and four spot on the roster, and his per- weight behind flag football was a
recently said.
OPINION
Israel Reboots the U.S. Election BOOKSHELF | By Tim Blanning
Suddenly in
the aftermath
Let’s cut to the chase. Ac-
tually two chases.
true and needs repeating. A
Republican presidential con-
But as in 1941, events have
isolated the isolationists.
A Fast But
Fateful Fight
of the Hamas One, which presidential test that had become desul- Chris Christie and Doug
massacre on candidate is up to—or quali- tory has been rebooted by Burgum have been running on
Oct. 7, we fied for—this new challenge? events in the Middle East. their state experience, and
have a presi- Two, which party is willing The Democrats’ legal as- Tim Scott’s appeal is domes-
dential elec- to pay to do what is neces- sault on Mr. Trump looked as tic and cultural issues.
WONDER
tion about sary for the U.S. to meet the if it had handed him the nom- The tectonic plates of
LAND
national secu- challenge? ination. But it’s by no means global politics have shifted
Bismarck’s War
By Daniel
rity. And that The second question an- clear that the former presi- beneath this campaign. The By Rachel Chrastil
Henninger
could shuffle swers itself. The Democratic dent is the right person to next U.S. president should be (Basic, 512 pages, $35)
the U.S. presi- foreign-policy establishment lead the country through able to explain in detail the
‘T
dential-candidate deck. isn’t as far left as the party’s what lies ahead. country’s national-security wo brothers had left; only one returned,” writes
The foreign-policy debate dominant wing. But the party Mr. Trump produced a needs, including the trade- Rachel Chrastil. The survivor was Dietrich von
on the Republican side— of the Squad, Bernie Sanders, largely credible foreign pol- offs, such as the reality that Lassberg, a 22-year-old subaltern in the Bavarian
China, Ukraine, the open bor- anti-Israel demonstrators icy, but he has since become long-term entitlement spend- army. A year earlier he had exulted in his diary: “War! War
der—had become rote. No and cash-starved progressive impossibly variable. His criti- ing has to be on the table. with France!” The brother who died was Rudolf, shot in the
longer. Hamas’s killing of ci- city governments controls cism of Mr. Netanyahu over a Ms. Haley has shown she head in a battle outside Orléans in November 1870. On
vilians and seizing of hos- the Democrats’ limitless do- 2020 incident hours after the can do that. If former Vice Christmas Eve, Dietrich sat around the campfire in silent
tages, including presumably mestic spending priorities, massacre was an incompre- President Pence is ever going misery, drinking hot grog from a tin cup, dreaming of his
Americans, has forced the which simply no longer in- to play to his proven strength family back in Munich, and pondering the “shadow side and
world’s troubles to the top of clude a robust national de- and make the case for a Rea- horror” of war. In “Bismarck’s War: The Franco-Prussian
the presidential agenda. fense. Any Democratic presi- The Hamas crisis is a ganite foreign policy, the time War and the Making of Modern Europe,” Ms. Chrastil, a
Joe Biden flew to the Is- dent with control of one is now. historian at Xavier University, deftly uses Dietrich’s diary
raeli war zone and gave a congressional chamber will sudden opportunity An ABC/Ipsos poll taken and other sources to enliven her larger analysis of the war’s
worthy speech of commit- keep inflation-adjusted de- for Nikki Haley and after the Hamas massacre put origins and progress.
ment to the U.S. ally. fense spending flat at best. public support for Mr. Biden’s Although the six-month Franco-Prussian War was among
Support for Rep. Jim Jor- After Oct. 7, flat puts us at Mike Pence. handling of the crisis at a the shortest of all major European conflicts, it brought
dan as House speaker de- risk. startling 41%. The public sim- Dietrich and his comrades sights that robbed them of any
pended in large part on the The U.S. has fallen below ply has lost faith in his com- temptation to triumphalism. The war’s combination of
imperative to pass aid bills an adequate level of readiness hensibly wrong note. Mr. petence. We’ll find out soon lethal new weapons
for Israel and Ukraine. in almost every area—weap- Trump’s head currently is in enough how much this crisis (breechloading rifles,
After Donald Trump, days ons systems and inventories, too many disparate places, alters the Biden pattern. machine guns, steel cannon)
after the massacre, reflex- troop levels and recruitment, and that won’t get better. It In a national-security cri- and huge armies left
ively posted statements of ships and airplanes, training has become a risk factor. sis, what a nation needs from mountains of dead and
derision about Israeli Prime rotations, the aging of the nu- The candidates for whom its leaders is experience, fo- hordes of permanently
Minister Benjamin Netan- clear deterrent. the Israeli crisis and its cus and stamina. Former mutilated wounded: In the
yahu and admiration for These dilemmas consume broader implications create chess champion Garry Kasp- murderous engagement at
Hezbollah as “smart,” he hours of pondering and plan- an opening are Nikki Haley arov recently floated in these Gravelotte in August 1870,
spent the week refocusing ning by Pentagon analysts. and Mike Pence. They are the pages the idea of Mr. Biden’s the Prussians lost twice as
attention on his foreign-pol- The Israel-Hamas war makes only two other GOP contend- ceding the Democratic nomi- many men as they had during
icy accomplishments. clear the pondering is over ers with credible foreign-pol- nation to Defense Secretary the entire Austro-Prussian
After one weekend in Octo- among our adversaries. It icy experience. Lloyd Austin, a retired four- War of 1866.
ber, the table has filled with would be naive to think that Ron DeSantis’s remarks on star Army general. By July 1870 Prussia’s chief
national-security crises: an Tehran, Beijing, Moscow and foreign policy always seem However improbable, as of minister, Otto von Bismarck,
existential threat to Israel, possibly Pyongyang aren’t targeted at some constitu- Oct. 7 an Austin candidacy had deftly maneuvered France
Iran exploiting the Middle right now comparing notes ency. He spent this week would be a problem for Re- into declaring a war that he
East cauldron, what comes on how to exploit the U.S. se- bogged down in a marginal publicans. There’s still time was confident the Prussian-led
next for Taiwan, and Russia’s curity nightmares Iran has argument with Ms. Haley for GOP voters to figure out alliance would win; the spoils of victory would be
war against Ukraine, on the just created in the Middle over refugees from the Mid- what their party, and the Germany’s unification on Prussian terms. After a brief
border of the North Atlantic East. dle East. He looks deter- country, is going to need in a incursion across the frontier at Saarbrücken, the French
Treaty Organization. The U.S. That the U.S. needs real mined to hold onto the president, now and for a very took up defensive positions. They were quickly dislodged
southern border sits as an leadership in its next presi- Trump-Ramaswamy isola- long time. by three limited if bloody August battles, two in Alsace at
open, bleeding wound. dent is a cliché because it’s tionist faction in the party. Write henninger@wsj.com. Wissembourg and Wörth and one further north at
Spicheren. Major catastrophes quickly followed, as one
French army was surrounded and besieged at Metz and
The Unmaking of the Republican Majority another was surrounded and forced to capitulate at Sedan
on Sept 2.
The famous defeat at Sedan proved to be more than
By Karl Rove If he does end up speaker, spending bills.” Nice thought pick the GOP by a large military, for the French commander was none other than the
Mr. Jordan should fulfill his and a worthy cause in theory, margin. emperor, Napoleon III. His capture precipitated a swift and
T
he Republican calamity promise to return power to but this will go nowhere—es- On which party “will do a nearly instantaneous revolution in Paris and the collapse of
continues. As I write, committees and operate un- pecially as an ultimatum better job of keeping the the Second Empire. Explaining how it was possible for a
the House is still with- der regular order, in which from a loudmouth who country prosperous,” Ameri- great power to implode in less than a month, Ms. Chrastil
out a speaker more than two committees create and put blocked single-subject appro- cans said Republicans by 53% follows most previous historians of the war in assigning
weeks after Kevin McCarthy forward legislation rather priations bills when Speaker to 39%, the GOP’s largest most of the blame to the emperor.
was deposed by Rep. Matt than party leadership ram- McCarthy was trying to move lead on this issue since Although it was Napoleon III’s political coup d’état of 1851
Gaetz’s band of political ar- ming bills down members’ legislation that way. mid-1991. When asked which that Karl Marx had in mind when he observed that history
sonists. Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan throats. He needs to stand by Since the GOP holds only party “will do a better job of repeats itself as tragedy and then as farce, the events of
hasn’t yet persuaded, cajoled, that promise even if a Re- the House, and by only a protecting the country from 1870 would have been as appropriate. Napoleon III was a
enticed or threatened his publican committee majority bare margin, the next Repub- international terrorism and sick man when the war began, in agonizing pain from a
way to 217 votes. He may not approves budget bills he dis- lican speaker must set priori- military threats,” Republicans gallstone. He should never have been allowed anywhere near
get there. agrees with, or brings to the ties, focus on the possible, lead Democrats by an even the front, but such was the growing fragility of his regime
It will be ironic if Mr. Jor- and aim for incremental wider margin, 57% to 35%. that he felt he had to gamble on achieving a personal
dan wins: The founder of the changes that bend govern- Even when voters were triumph. And he lost, not just a battle and army but a throne
House GOP’s Freedom Caucus The only hopeful sign ment toward conservative asked which party would do too, slinking off to exile in England (the ultimate humiliation
must then become the uni- principles. A Freedom Caucus a better job “handling the for a Bonaparte).
fier in chief. A man who dur- for the party is that backbencher can demand pu- problem you think is most The French lost the Franco-Prussian War because the
ing 16 years in Congress has the public dislikes rity from GOP leadership. But important,” Republicans lead best efforts of their courageous troops were frustrated by
never passed a bill would a speaker must aim for the 44% to 36%. This suggests what Ms. Chrastil calls “strikingly weary and incompetent
have to become a master the Democrats too. maximum reasonable ad- the GOP’s views on such is- commanders, all reporting to an exhausted and enervated
legislator. A politician who vance in a conservative di- sues as crime and immigra- Napoleon III.” As for the Prussians, the author allows that
gained power by bullying rection, not act as if he con- tion are winners and that the “they were better organized, had a better military
others would have to learn floor measures to provide aid trols Washington with his Democratic approach on education and had more manpower” but is at pains to bring
to persuade and energize to Israel, Ukraine and Tai- gavel. abortion may not be the out their limitations and mistakes. She also stresses how
them. He would find quickly wan, tied with more funding Any new Republican surefire hit they think.
that making demands in for border security. Looking speaker must be careful While no speaker vote will
Washington has limits—as at his record, one wonders if about substituting his opin- rescue House Republicans Prussia’s military victory led to
does anyone stuck with the Mr. Jordan will say regular ions for those of the House from their current troubles, German unification and the collapse
speaker’s job. order is proper only so long GOP membership writ large. they still have some things
Mr. Jordan also has a as it conforms to the views He can try persuading, but working in their favor. To of the Second French Empire.
fondness for government of the Freedom Caucus. Will given the disunity and anger keep their majority, Republi-
shutdowns. If he’s elected a disrupter like him allow the in the House Republican Cau- cans must aim for incremen-
speaker, will he champion House to pass measures cus, he can no more dictate tal progress. Americans small was the margin separating success from failure: If
one even though the GOP’s backed only by Republicans? to them than to President Bi- aren’t likely to reward a only the French had done this or that or the other, she
four-seat House majority de- Or bills on which both Demo- den or Senate Majority party that displays contempt conjectures, all might have been very different.
pends on 14 Republicans crats and Republicans might Leader Chuck Schumer. for the hard, slow work of While this subjunctive exercise can be a useful corrective
from districts Joe Biden car- agree? Still, for all the Republi- coalition building and gov- to the triumphalist narrative of German nationalist
ried in 2020, six of which are The inestimable Rep. Matt cans’ problems, there’s hope: erning. You can’t blame historians, here it is perhaps taken too far. Once every
in New York or California? Gaetz, who gave America this Americans don’t like Demo- them. reservation has been noted, the fact remains that the
And how well will Mr. Jor- period of instability and Re- crats either. A Sept. 23 Gal- Prussian chief of staff, Helmuth von Moltke, brought off a
dan, a former right-wing publicans a PR disaster that lup poll found 56% gave the Mr. Rove helped organize series of dazzling victories that changed European history.
hell-raiser, do at recruiting could cost them their slim GOP an unfavorable rating the political-action committee Napoleon III’s uncle, the great Napoleon, is said to have
good candidates and raising majority in 2024, said this while 58% rated Democrats American Crossroads and is asked, when a subordinate was proposed for promotion: “I
the funds necessary to elect week that “we should put a unfavorably. The saving author of “The Triumph of know he’s a good general, but is he lucky?” Moltke was
them? I’d bet not nearly as demand on the Senate to grace for Republicans is that William McKinley” (Simon & certainly lucky, but he was also brilliant.
well as Mr. McCarthy. pass our single-subject on big issues, Americans Schuster, 2015). Ms. Chrastil does her best to keep the momentum going
after the drama at Sedan, when a slogging war of attrition
developed, but the pace slackens as one inconsequential
School Choice Is Coming to Louisiana engagement follows another. Paris was surrounded by the end
of September and a long and increasingly terrible siege began,
made all the worse by an unusually severe winter. As
By Corey DeAngelis school choice proposal—one Mr. Landry’s campaign home school, charter schools, starvation intensified, even the zoo animals were slaughtered
that would be available to all website says that “no child church-based schools and and eaten, including the two elephants, Castor and Pollux.
L
ouisiana was once a pi- families, regardless of need— should be trapped in a failing other alternatives.” Outside the capital there was plenty of horror still to
oneer in school choice. by a 61-37 vote. Although the school” and that “if a school Choice supporters also come, as counterproductive resistance from partisan francs-
After Hurricane Ka- bill had bipartisan support, it cannot adequately educate its made gains in the Legisla- tireurs was crushed by equally counterproductive reprisals
trina in 2005, New Orleans takes two-thirds of each leg- students, those students ture. “We now have a su- from the German invaders. At the German occupiers’
rebuilt its schools as an all- islative chamber to override should be given the ability to permajority of school choice headquarters at Versailles, on Jan. 18, 1871, the German
charter system. The state en- a veto. The Senate never took obtain an education that is supporters in the Senate and princes proclaimed Wilhelm of Prussia the first emperor of
acted a private-school it up. worthy of the commitment are only a couple votes shy a united Germany. (“Mad” King Ludwig II of Bavaria
voucher program in 2008, we have made to them.” He of a supermajority in the provided evidence of his basic sanity by refusing to attend.)
when Bobby Jindal was gov- supported school choice long House,” says Kelli Bottger of A week later an armistice was signed, and the war came to
ernor—one of the first states Once a pioneer, the before the movement’s recent Louisiana Kids Matter. an end—so far as the Germans were concerned, although a
to establish private-school surge in momentum, fueled A Morning Consult poll civil war erupted in Paris in March.
choice statewide. state is about to catch by Covid-era school closings finds that 68% of adults and This is a most engaging book, distinguished by sharp
But Gov. John Bel Ed- up under Jeff Landry, and online lessons that 75% of parents with school- insight, powerful characterization and a strong narrative
wards, a Democrat, has stood alerted parents to curricula aged children in Louisiana flow. It is the best modern account of the war and deserves
in the way since he took of- its new governor. that offend their values. support education savings to stand with Sir Michael Howard’s classic study of 1961.
fice in 2016. Last year he ve- As a U.S. representative accounts. Ten other states Howard closed by observing that “Germany’s magnificent
toed two bills that would (2011-13), Mr. Landry voted have passed universal school and well-deserved victory was, in a profound and
have allowed all families with But Mr. Edwards is term- to reauthorize the District of choice since 2021. With Mr. unforeseeable sense, a disaster: for herself, and for the
children who weren’t reading limited, and on Saturday the Columbia’s private-school Landry’s victory, look for entire world.” Rachel Chrastil’s assessment is equally bleak:
at grade level or had special state elected Republican Jeff voucher program. During his Louisiana to become the 11th. “The Franco-Prussian War did not create the atrocities of
needs to take their state- Landry, a school-choice sup- 2010 congressional campaign, the World Wars, but it made them more thinkable and
funded education dollars to porter, to succeed him. Mr. his website stated that “we Mr. DeAngelis is a senior created their possibility.”
schools of their choice. Landry received nearly 52% need to adopt policies that fellow at the American Feder-
This year the Republican- of the vote in a 14-candidate empower parents to make ation for Children and a vis- Mr. Blanning is emeritus professor of modern European
controlled state House passed open primary. He takes office decisions about their own iting fellow at Stanford Uni- history at the University of Cambridge. He is the author of
an even more expansive in January. child’s education—including versity’s Hoover Institution. “Frederick the Great: King of Prussia,” among other books.
.
OPINION
REVIEW & OUTLOOK LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
Hamas’s Hospital Lie and the Laws of War Realtors Respond on the Antitrust Court Case
Your editorial “Realtors Face an the brokers and their clients and is
P
resident Biden’s speech in Israel within Gaza right about the time reports
Wednesday told the world two truths it emerged of an impact at the hospital. Antitrust Reckoning” (Oct. 16) mis- always negotiable. According to Real
characterizes what is at stake for Trends, commissions rates are well
needed to hear: The tragic deaths out- Hamas blamed the attack on Israel, but its
consumers in Burnett v. National As- below where they were in the 1990s.
side a Gaza hospital were story doesn’t add up. Any ob- sociation of Realtors. Don’t fall for Realtors deliver a lot of value for
caused by a Palestinian rocket, The jihadists directly server can now see the hospital the hype by class-action attorneys the $50,000 they make annually, on
and the U.S. hasn’t wavered in target civilians. Israel is still standing. Instead, the about how local multiple-listing ser- average, as they guide consumers
its solidarity with Israel. The parking lot outside has been vice (MLS) broker marketplaces work. through all the legal, financial and
President kept the focus and the West don’t. hit, with much evidence of fire In response to the marketplace, community complexities of buying a
where it should be—on damage but not the impact cra- and at the urging of consumer advo- home. Class-action attorneys would
Hamas’s gross violations of ter typical of Israeli airstrikes. cates, the National Association of Re- take away buyer representation, and
the laws of war. These are now being miscon- The signs point to a long-range rocket from Gaza altors has developed guidance for lo- black, Hispanic/Latino, first-time and
strued to tie Israel’s hands, with consequences that fell before using up its accelerant. cal MLS broker marketplaces. It is low- and middle-income buyers would
for the West at large. Hamas may still call this a success: Its propa- part of a very public rule-making pro- be hurt the most, according to a May
cess aimed at creating the most con- 2022 study.
“The world will know that Israel is stronger ganda held up long enough to set the Middle East
sumer-friendly market possible. The National Association of Real-
than ever,” Mr. Biden said, announcing that he ablaze. An angry mob took to the Ramallah These virtual marketplaces are ef- tors looks out for consumers with its
will “keep Iron Dome fully supplied” to shoot streets to protest Mahmoud Abbas, president of ficient, transparent and accurate be- rules for local MLS broker market-
down rocket attacks on Israeli civilians and ask the Palestinian Authority, for not doing enough cause of cooperation among real-es- places. In reality, the market—and
Congress for an “unprecedented support pack- to help Hamas. A mob tried to storm the Israeli tate professionals. Listing brokers hence the consumer—is in the
age.” U.S. support for Israel’s defense will sur- embassy in Jordan. make offers of compensation to buyer driver’s seat when it comes to real-
vive Hamas’s propaganda campaign about the Mr. Abbas and Jordan’s King Abdullah, who brokers, who bring buyers to the ta- estate commissions. That will all be
hospital blast. receives more than $1 billion in annual U.S. aid, ble. Those offers can be of any evident as the National Association of
At first the media took Hamas at its word: 500 canceled a meeting with Mr. Biden over the hos- amount, even zero, and the National Realtors makes its case in court.
dead from an Israeli strike. The BBC explained pital blast. On Wednesday the U.S. intercepted Association of Realtors doesn’t tell TRACY KASPER
practitioners what to charge. President, National Association of Realtors
on air that the Israelis “said they are investigat- two attack drones targeting an Iraqi air base
That compensation is set between Caldwell, Idaho
ing, but it is hard to see what else this could be, where U.S. troops are located.
really, given the size of the explosion, other than i i i
an Israeli airstrike, or several airstrikes.” Which brings us to the larger context regard-
Headlines have since changed, but the world ing the laws of war and casualties. There are two
received the story essentially as Rep. Rashida bedrock principles in war that civilized nations
Why Did Harvard Students Cheer on Hamas?
Tlaib (D., Mich.) put it on Twitter: “Israel just developed over centuries. The first is that you I am a senior at Harvard College. sioned and alienated as I am today.”
bombed the Baptist Hospital killing 500 Pales- can’t target civilians. On that standard every Harvard President Claudine Gay’s as- Odious speech is protected by the
tinians (doctors, children, patients) just like Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah rocket at- sertion that “no student group—not First Amendment, but there is a price
that.” She also blamed Mr. Biden for not coercing tack on Israel is a war crime. They are aimed at even 30 student groups—speaks for to pay for such egregious anti-Semitic
Israel into a cease-fire, as Hamas would no doubt cities with the hope of falling on an unlucky cafe Harvard University or its leadership” antics. Some students who will be
is an understatement (“Harvard looking for jobs outside academia re-
like to see. or home.
Shrugs at Jew-Hatred” by J.J. Kimche, alize their actions might make them
We can now have confidence that the initial The second principle is proportionality, which op-ed, Oct. 11). less employable and are trying to dis-
story was false. A White House National Security is that incidental casualties have to be balanced The morally bankrupt claims made tance themselves from the letter.
Council spokesman confirms that its “current as- against the war aims. This is based on the expec- by these groups are not representative Harvard likely will emerge from
sessment, based on analysis of overhead imag- tation that in any war there will be some inno- of many of their members. They used this relatively unscathed unless do-
ery, intercepts and open source information, is cents killed, but that they must be related to the theirs, Harvard’s and their members’ nors decide that it is time to stop sup-
that Israel is not responsible for the explosion goals of self-defense. The standard isn’t zero ca- names to lend credence to their outra- porting such pernicious behavior.
at the hospital in Gaza.” Israeli drone footage sualties, which is impossible. It’s as few as possi- geous claims. These statements were HOWARD LANDIS
and an intercept of a call between Hamas mem- ble consistent with defeating the enemy. published by organization leaders, of- Naples, Fla.
bers add to the evidence. Yet the Western left has been moving to a ten without serious debate or voting
“I am telling you this is the first time we see standard that any civilian casualties in war are by members. Just as Hamas is not rep- Mr. Kimche describes how “a collec-
resentative of all Palestinians, the rad- tion of some 30 student groups” not
a missile like this falling, and so that’s why we too many. If that is the law of war, then Israel
icals responsible for the letters are only “failed to condemn this proto-
are saying it belongs to Palestinian Islamic Ji- would be denied the right of self-defense to de- not representative of all members. genocide” perpetrated by Hamas, but
had,” one Hamas member began. stroy an enemy embedded in schools, mosques Shame on them for co-opting and mis- “justified and celebrated it.” In recent
“It’s from us?” the other answered. or dense urban neighborhoods. Under that stan- representing their voices. months, Harvard administrators have
“It looks like it. They are saying that the dard, no Western nation, including the U.S., MUKUND VENKATAKRISHNAN bemoaned how the recent Supreme
shrapnel from the missile is local shrapnel and would be able to strike back against terrorists Cambridge, Mass. Court decision on affirmative action
not like Israeli shrapnel.” if civilians might be killed. has threatened the preservation of di-
Video from Al Jazeera, hardly an Israel- Those aren’t the laws of war; they’re the laws Is Harvard worthy of donor sup- versity in the admissions process.
friendly source, caught the trajectory of one of Western unilateral disarmament. Israel de- port? More than 30 Harvard student Perhaps its administrators should
such rocket. Launched from Gaza, it went badly serves U.S. support for its much-lied-about way organizations signed a statement that be more concerned with how to mod-
excused Hamas’s recent butchery in ify the school’s admissions process to
astray, seemed to shoot off shrapnel, and landed of war, in addition to its just cause.
Israel. To them, the fault lies solely ensure that students lacking a basic
with Israel. That is horrible enough, moral compass are rejected.
Glenn Youngkin’s Plan to Save Gas Cars but worse was the university’s tepid
reaction to the events.
Harvard, at least initially, didn’t
WILLIAM J. ROBBINS
White Plains, N.Y.
V
irginia’s odd-year statehouse elections Virginia’s roads, though they were about 10% of condemn the letter or Hamas, and one In 1939, prior to the entry of the
are now less than three weeks away, and the state’s sales for the first quarter of this year. might reasonably presume that its top U.S. into World War II, thousands of
Democrats want to make the argument Here’s the rub: Tesla currently makes up most administrators are sympathetic to the American citizens, many of them
all about abortion. That’s be- EV sales. If this trend contin- students’ warped perspective. Such members of the German-American
cause Gov. Glenn Youngkin has Voters in Virginia will ues, other auto makers may moral callowness has been criticized Bund, rallied in support of Nazi Ger-
a strong approval rating, and by many, including former Harvard many, but once Germany’s intentions
they’d prefer not to talk about
decide if the GOP can soon have to reduce deliveries
of gas-powered cars to meet President Larry Summers, who wrote: became undeniably clear, this ended.
“In nearly 50 years of @Harvard affili- But after the slaughter of more
the popular things he could do repeal an EV mandate. the mandate. ation, I have never been as disillu- than 1,000 innocent Jews (including
if Republicans win unified con- Democrats say the policy 30 Americans), students at Harvard,
trol of Richmond. will increase consumer choice, Columbia, Stanford and other elite
For example, the result next month could de- but unsold EVs are already piling up on dealer Thatcher’s ‘Iron Lady’: universities rallied in favor of the per-
cide whether the Old Dominion barrels down the lots. The mandate will limit choices for Virgin- petrators, as did many on the streets
speedway to banning gas-powered cars. Two ians who want gas cars, and they may pay higher
An Insult-Turned-Asset of American cities.
years ago Democrats in the General Assembly prices due to restricted supply. Mr. Youngkin, Jim Rule points out in an Oct. 13 PAUL SNITZER
passed a law to adopt California’s vehicle-emis- who understands economics, is pushing to undo letter that “Teflon president” was Devon, Pa.
sions standards. Signed by then-Democratic the 2021 law. intended to be an insulting jibe, but
Gov. Ralph Northam, it essentially lets progres- This year the House of Delegates passed a re- President Ronald Reagan was far I received the mass email sent to
from the only politician to turn an Harvard alumni by President Gay, ad-
sive regulators on the California Air Resources peal bill, but Democratic state Sen. Monty Mason
insult into an asset. Prime Minister dressing the war in Israel. One line
Board (CARB) dictate the kinds of cars Virgin- blocked it from getting out of his committee. At Margaret Thatcher proudly enjoyed was especially notable: “It’s in the ex-
ians can drive. the moment Democrats hold a narrow majority the sobriquet “the Iron Lady,” but it ercise of our freedom to speak that we
Under the federal Clean Air Act, California is in the Senate, and Mr. Mason is running for re- is often forgotten that the name was reveal our characters.” Well said. Har-
allowed to set its own standards for tailpipe pol- election in a competitive district around Wil- intended to be pejorative. vard’s character has been revealed.
lutants, which other states may follow. The Envi- liamsburg. Mr. Youngkin carried the district by Ironically enough for an implaca- JEFFREY H. DEAN
ronmental Protection Agency under Presidents 3.4 points in 2021. ble enemy of communism, Thatcher Seattle
Obama and Biden has interpreted this authority Mr. Mason, like the rest of his party, is run- was dubbed “the Iron Lady” by a
broadly, and last year CARB declared sales of ning on abortion, and he claims his GOP oppo- Soviet journalist. Yuri Gavrilov
new internal-combustion engine cars would be nent, Danny Diggs, is extreme for supporting Mr. coined it when writing in the Soviet Trump’s Hezbollah Message
military’s Red Star newspaper in
banned in the Golden State by 2035. EVs must Youngkin’s proposed 15-week ban. Yet how is it While not exactly a Trump parti-
1976 in response to a foreign-policy
make up 35% of auto makers’ sales by 2026 and not extreme to outlaw sales of the gas cars that speech in which Mrs. Thatcher de-
san I’m happy to oblige your edito-
68% by 2030. Under Mr. Northam’s law, Virginia 99.5% of Virginians still drive? If voters want to nounced the Soviet Union as bent
rial’s request that someone decipher
is obligated to follow its mandates. go another route, Mr. Youngkin and Republicans Donald Trump’s remarks on Hezbol-
on world domination.
Electric vehicles are less than 0.5% of cars on are ready to hop in the driver’s seat. lah and China (“Donald Trump’s Is-
The name was meant to mock the
raeli War Insight,” Oct. 13).
prime minister, whom the author
Though they may be couched in a
Banning Zuckerbucks Isn’t About Trump thought was obsessed with the Iron
Curtain. But Thatcher seized on the
title as proof of her resolute will.
New York street argot, he is saying
that the enemies of Western civili-
zation are clever, cunning, implaca-
She started using it herself within a
L
ouisiana is the latest state to restrict pri- This isn’t a novel result. A conservative group ble and relentless.
vate funding for elections, after voters in Wisconsin previously estimated that Zucker- week: “I stand before you tonight in
That sounds like a message that
my Red Star chiffon evening gown,
on Saturday backed a constitutional bucks might have boosted Mr. Biden’s tally there could benefit those leading the
my face softly made up and my fair
amendment, 73% to 27%. Grants to election ad- by 8,000 votes. Mr. Trump lost the state by hair gently waved, the Iron Lady of
country at this perilous moment.
ministrators are often referred to as Zucker- 20,682. A more telling fact is that he lagged Wis- TOM PARONIS
the Western world.”
bucks, after the millions that Facebook impresa- consin’s five GOP congressmen by 63,547. Keep Brooklyn, N.Y.
If your enemies are annoyed, you
rio Mark Zuckerberg poured into the pandemic in mind that the Zuckerbucks debate isn’t about must be doing something right. Why
voting of 2020. To Donald Trump, it was a case fraud, but whether some places had more re- not needle them with their own
of election rigging. sources to assist real, legitimate voters. words? Pepper ...
But it’s unlikely that Mr. Zuckerberg’s money Another point is that the outfit bankrolled by ROBERT FRAZER
mattered to the outcome, and a new academic Mr. Zuckerberg wrote sizable checks to states Salford, U.K.
And Salt
study circulating among election analysts argues safely in Mr. Biden’s column, such as $19,294,627 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
exactly that. “While counties that favor Demo- to New York City. It also sent money to Trumpy
crats were much more likely to apply for a grant, areas, such as DeSoto County, Miss., which took Bitcoin’s Backing Is Dubious
we find that the grants did not have a noticeable $347,752 and spent it on Covid shields, more vot- An Oct. 12 letter asks “What Backs
effect on the presidential election,” write ing machines, and extra workers. the U.S. Dollar?” The answer is the
Apoorva Lal and Daniel Thompson, the latter of Nevertheless, there’s no guarantee of what fu- full faith and credit of the U.S. gov-
whom is a political-science professor at the Uni- ture partisans might do. Neither political party ernment.
I know some people might think
versity of California, Los Angeles. should want an arms race of private donations
that is questionable, but it goes a lot
“The average effect of receiving a grant on to top up the budgets of nonpartisan govern- further than whatever is backing bit-
Democratic vote share,” they estimate, ranges ment election offices in the counties most favor- coin.
“from 0.02 percentage points to 0.36 percentage able to each side. That kind of thing could deter- DAL COGER
points.” Their figures for increased turnout are mine a closer presidential race, such as what the Medford, Mass.
smaller still. Since such funding was received by country suffered in 2000, when George W. Bush
“only a subset of counties,” they say, such effects defeated Al Gore by 537 ballots in Florida.
Letters intended for publication should
look too minor to flip statewide outcomes. Mr. Elections should be run using public money. be emailed to wsj.ltrs@wsj.com. Please
Trump lost to President Biden in Georgia by 0.24 Private funding is one of those bizarre pandemic include your city, state and telephone
points, Arizona by 0.31, Wisconsin by 0.64, and ventures that should never be repeated. It isn’t number. All letters are subject to
Pennsylvania by 1.18. To win the Electoral Col- why Mr. Trump lost, but Louisiana and other editing, and unpublished letters cannot “We’re not calling it a divorce. We’re
be acknowledged.
lege, he needed three of those states. states are right to chuck the Zuckerbuck. saying our marriage was cancelled.”
.
OPINION
A
all our civilization.” at our own peril.
s I read about Harvard stu- For the time being, “people are A century later, Alexander Solzhe-
dents demonstrating in fa- simply intimidated by some sort of nitsyn, contemplating the idealist
vor of Hamas and educated habit,” Dostoevsky continues, but if Russians who joined in torture and
people proclaiming that some progressive expert were to the enlightened Western intellectuals
“decolonization” should be come up with a theory showing that who whitewashed it, asked why
pursued “by any means necessary,” I sometimes flaying skins can benefit Shakespeare’s villains murdered only
thought of Dostoevsky’s reaction, a the right cause because “the end jus- a few people while the Bolsheviks
century and a half ago, to atrocities tifies any means,” and if that expert killed millions. To answer this ques-
committed by the Ottomans as they were to express his view “using the tion, he reflects, one must grasp that
suppressed uprisings among their appropriate style,” then, “believe no one thinks of himself as evil. To
I
t was a lie. Hamas said Tuesday needs to push for an immediate about the distinct shriek of rocket structural damage. Instead, it could the larger risk is across the Islamic
that an Israeli airstrike on a ceasefire to end this slaughter.” launches. be seen that the blast had occurred world. Hamas’s lie—and the Western
Gaza City hospital killed at least The trend everywhere was to let Soon after, Hamas fighters dis- in the parking lot, and had set off a media’s propagation of it—brought
500 Palestinians. Turns out it wasn’t Hamas drive the story, leading read- cussed what had happened. We know large fire, likely from the accelerant huge crowds to the streets in Ramal-
Israeli, it wasn’t an airstrike, it ers astray. “BREAKING: The Gaza this because—in a rare move that re- of a failed long-range rocket. lah, Amman, Beirut and Baghdad.
didn’t hit the hospital, nowhere Health Ministry says at least 500 flects the stakes here—Israel re- The kind of crater that would in- Crowds tried to attack the Israeli
close to 500 people were killed, and people killed in an explosion at a hos- leased a recording of an intercepted dicate an Israeli strike is nowhere to Embassy in Jordan and the U.S. Em-
Hamas knew it. pital that it says was caused by an Is- phone call between two Hamas be found. We know what those look bassy in Lebanon. Moderating Arab
This has been confirmed indepen- raeli airstrike,” the Associated Press members: like, because they are all over Gaza. leaders were pushed into making
dently by the Pentagon, according to wrote in a tweet seen 13 million But not here. Cars as close as 10 hasty statements about “Israeli
President Biden and the National Se- times. The Gaza Health Ministry is yards to the impact sustained no criminal practices” (Saudi Arabia)
curity Council; by an intercept and controlled by Hamas. The AP’s subse- The Arab street has a new structural damage. Ditto for the and “the Israeli attack that targeted
drone and radar footage released by quent clarification that Israel attri- nearby buildings. Instead, the vehi- Al Ahli Baptist Hospital” (United
the Israeli military; and perhaps buted the strike to a Palestinian blood libel: that Jews cles were charred from fire—what Arab Emirates).
most persuasively by looking at the rocket has fewer than 200,000 views. slaughter Palestinians you’d expect from a Palestinian These leaders fear their own pop-
hospital in daylight. The evidence in- But the friendly-fire explanation rocket. ulations, whose prejudices they
dicates that a rocket launched by should always have been plausible in their hospitals. The situation also makes it im- know all too well. The rulers could
Palestinian Islamic Jihad is the likely and held out as a possibility. Israel plausible that 500 were killed. find themselves blamed for
culprit. doesn’t target hospitals, and it had Hamas reported casualty figures way strengthening relations with Israel,
The question is why the media already counted some 450 Palestinian “I am telling you this is the first sooner than it could possibly have the hospital killers.
and so many others ran with the rockets that fell inside Gaza. time we see a missile like this fall- known—and that should have been a The Arab street has been given a
story of Israeli war crimes. They did What actually happened? The Is- ing, and so that’s why we are saying tip-off that something wasn’t right. new blood libel: that Jews slaughter
so on nothing but the word of the ji- rael Defense Forces say that Pales- [it] belongs to Palestinian Islamic But the media bought it and Palestinians in their hospitals. That
hadist group that committed the tinian Islamic Jihad began a barrage Jihad.” shifted the Western discussion to we can be confident it is false, like
largest mass slaughter of Jews since of 10 rockets at Israeli cities at 6:50 “It’s from us?” what Israel had supposedly done the 2002 “Jenin massacre,” doesn’t
the Holocaust. p.m. local time Tuesday. This is con- “It looks like it. They are saying rather than what Hamas actually did mean they will ever know that. No
“Israeli Strike Kills Hundreds in firmed by live video, including on Al that the shrapnel from the missile is and what Israel needs to do to de- matter how this war ends, Islamic
Hospital, Palestinians Say,” read the Jazeera, which shows one rocket local shrapnel and not like Israeli fend its citizens. Jihad’s strike and Hamas’s propa-
initial New York Times headline. Rep. malfunctioning and crashing in Gaza shrapnel.” Why? One answer is that oppo- ganda are likely to feed violence
Ilhan Omar (D., Minn.) announced on at 6:59 p.m.—the same time reports “But God bless, it couldn’t have nents of Israel, including many jour- against Jews and Israel—with an as-
Twitter: “Bombing a hospital is emerged of a blast near the hospital. found another place to explode?” nalists, wanted to believe Hamas’s sist from the Western press.
among the gravest of war crimes. The Israel’s Channel 12, an independent “They shot it coming from the story because it fits their image of
IDF reportedly blowing up one of the commercial station, caught it on cemetery behind the hospital, and it Israel as a villain or enemy. And no Mr. Kaufman is the Journal’s let-
few places the injured and wounded video, too. Israel says it carried out misfired and fell on them.” doubt many in the West are deter- ters editor.
T
here is a sharp disconnect be- Yet the public is down in the and in my view we should do more we have high inflation, as happened tion, not the price level, with a
tween the U.S. economy’s un- mouth about the economy—and to aid the unfortunate. But in a in 2022. When they rise slowly, we modest recession or preferably
derlying realities, which are they blame Mr. Biden. On one level, population of more than 330 mil- have low inflation, as was normal none at all. Chairman Jerome Pow-
good, and people’s attitudes about this isn’t terribly surprising. When lion, some people will always be ell and his fellow central bankers
the economy, which remain sour. the economy does well, Americans struggling. never had any intention of forcing
Why does President Biden’s eco- give the president more credit than Another part of the answer is Inflation is lower, but the price level to fall—and they
nomic performance get such bad he deserves; and when it performs that lower inflation isn’t enough for still don’t. They know how bad
marks when unemployment is near poorly, they give him too much many people. Rather, they seem to some won’t be happy until things would have to get to pro-
record lows, net jobs are still being blame. The question is: Why is this want prices for items such as gaso- prices come down too. duce deflation.
created at a breakneck pace, and in- a time for blame rather than credit? line and groceries to fall back to The problem may be that a lot of
flation has fallen notably? Part of the answer is clear. First, where they used to be. That would be a disaster. the public does not. They long for
Although the Biden administra- there are always lags in perception. There’s a big difference between the lower prices they remember.
tion can’t crow about it, for fear of People’s evaluation of the economy falling inflation, which we have, and But they don’t think about the se-
seeming out of touch, the economy is backward looking, and inflation falling prices, which we don’t. Infla- before the pandemic. But the over- vere recession, or even depression,
is doing remarkably well. Consumer was sky high not long ago. Second, tion is the rate at which average all price level, which is a weighted that might be necessary to get back
price index inflation over 12 many Americans are feeling grumpy prices are rising. When the Federal average of all prices in the econ- there.
months, which peaked around 9% in about their country these days, and Reserve gets the inflation rate down omy, almost never falls. So what’s a poor policy maker to
June 2022, has lately been running some of that grumpiness rubs off to its 2% target, that will mark a big I said almost never. The price do? For the Fed, whose decision
around 3.5%. The unemployment on the economy. victory. But prices won’t return to level did fall, quite a bit in fact, makers don’t stand for election, the
rate, which was 6.3% when Mr. Bi- Third, you often hear that not their old levels. They will still be during the Great Depression, and answer is simple: Strive for a soft
den took office, has now been 4% or everyone is doing well in this econ- rising, albeit slowly. briefly during the pandemic reces- landing, not for deflation. It will
lower for 22 consecutive months. omy. That’s true. But it’s always Here’s the problem. While some sion. It takes a truly sick economy make most people better off and
Job creation is still running well true. Even in an exuberant boom, prices in a modern economy—such to cause deflation. happy about the economy. Besides,
above the rate needed to absorb la- some people are sadly left behind. as for gasoline and food—do go up Contrast this with the Fed’s ef- that’s the central bank’s legal man-
date: to achieve low inflation and
high employment.
A18 | Thursday, October 19, 2023 * *** THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
WORLD NEWS
manding the resignation of don’t aim to prevent Arévalo remaining riches while caus-
the country’s attorney general, from taking office. ing environmental damage.
following claims by President- Protests erupted on Oct. 2, In addition, the Treasury
elect Bernardo Arévalo that days after prosecutors raided greenlighted the trading of
she and other prosecutors are the headquarters of Guate- Venezuelan government bonds
plotting a coup against him. mala’s electoral court and by U.S.-based financial institu-
The presidential election seized ballot certificates as tions, which the U.S. had pre-
Arévalo won by a landslide in part of a criminal inquiry into viously restricted to close off
August has been marked alleged electoral fraud. Maduro’s financing options.
by judicial challenges and alle- The probe relates to the al- Sanctions that the U.S. has
gations of fraud against him leged manipulation of the com- leveled against Maduro and
and his party. Arévalo’s sur- puter system that processed the high-ranking officials and mil-
prise victory followed a cam- results of this year’s elections, a itary officers for alleged
paign focused on combating Indigenous people demonstrate in support of President-elect Bernardo Arévalo in Guatemala City. senior government official said. crimes that include drug traf-
endemic corruption. Guatemalan prosecutors are ex- ficking and looting the oil in-
On Monday, protesters left was killed and two others exporters about $366 million dents said. Hundreds of dem- pected to bring charges soon, dustry remain in place.
a large dam and water plant wounded by unknown gunmen in losses, according to Guate- onstrators have occupied the he said. Election observers By removing economic
serving Guatemala City after after protesters refused to lift malan trade group Agexport. entrance of the Attorney Gen- said they found no incidents sanctions, the U.S. is expecting
occupying it for a week. In a road blockade, a local fire- Dozens of wholesale food mar- eral’s Office headquarters. of fraud or manipulation, and that the regime will release at
Malacatán, near the border fighter group said. kets and shops in the capital Guatemala’s interior minister prosecutors haven’t presented least some of the eight Ameri-
with Mexico, a demonstrator Road closures have caused have closed in protest, resi- resigned Monday after he re- detailed evidence. cans jailed in Venezuela.
Musk Warns on
Tesla Cybertruck
Amid Profit Drop
BY REBECCA ELLIOTT Tesla’s quarterly net profit
$4.0 billion 3Q 2023
Chief Executive Elon Musk
warned Wednesday that Tesla $1.9B
will face “enormous chal- 3.5
lenges” scaling up factory pro-
duction of its long-delayed Cy- 3.0
bertruck, signaling profit
could remain under pressure 2.5
in the coming quarters.
The electric-car maker re- 2.0
ported a 44% decline in third
quarter net income, a steeper 1.5
drop than Wall Street had ex-
pected, as price cuts across 1.0
the company’s lineup contin-
RINGO CHIU/ZUMA PRESS
company that was once con- Before China’s property United Airlines is stocks—but commission rates
sidered among the safest de- sector faltered two years ago, for selling a home haven’t re-
velopers in the country. investors considered Country
changing its boarding ally budged. That could soon
The company hasn’t made a Garden to be one of the coun- process for economy change.
$15.4 million interest payment try’s most conservative pri- passengers. B3 A pair of class-action law-
on an outstanding dollar bond, vate sector developers. While suits challenging real-estate
according to two investors more aggressive developers industry rules—including one
who hold the bond. That could attempted to expand into that went to trial beginning
lead to a wave of cross-de- other areas, the company re- this week—and continued
faults on its other interna- mained focused on real estate. pressure from U.S. antitrust
tional debt. Country Garden At its height, Country Garden officials are threatening to
had around $15.2 billion of in- was rated around triple-B by disrupt a compensation model Jon Anderson says he was ‘blackballed’ by the sales market.
ternational bonds and loans major credit-ratings compa- that hasn’t meaningfully
outstanding at the end of nies, implying a low probabil- changed in decades. the amount of compensation home seller was fed up with
June, according to its public ity of default. Home buyers rarely pay their offered to the buyer’s agent is paying a real-estate agent tens
disclosures. The Foshan-based devel- agents. Instead, sellers pay their a condition for listing a home of thousands of dollars.
The payment was due at oper now joins dozens of Chi- own agents, who in turn share on a multiple-listing service—a He hired a low-fee brokerage
midnight Tuesday, according nese property companies that their commissions with the vital tool for marketing a home. company, REX, that was buck-
to a person familiar with the have missed payments on E-COMMERCE buyer’s representative. In the In the current environment, ing a widespread industry rule
matter. their dollar bonds. Bond de- Amazon unveils typical transaction, total agent trying an alternative approach by not guaranteeing the seller
The company’s inability to faults in the sector totaled commissions are 5% to 6% of can be risky. When Jon Ander- would pay a commission to the
meet its debt obligations around $81 billion between
warehouse overhaul the sale price. For a $400,000 son decided to sell his khaki- home buyer’s agent. At the
shows the extent of a painful 2021 and 2022, according to with robotics to speed home purchase, that is roughly colored three-bedroom house time, homes were often selling
slowdown in China’s property data from S&P Global Ratings. deliveries. B4 $20,000, split two ways. in Colorado Springs, Colo., in days, but for several weeks
sector, which was once a key Please turn to page B10 In most markets, publishing four years ago, the veteran Please turn to page B2
.
tional automakers. pected, to 16.3% in the July-to- now find their homes online.
Tesla’s stock, which closed September period. That mar- Cracks in the traditional in-
Wednesday at $242.68 a share, gin, an indicator of the cost of dustry structure are starting
was down roughly 4% in after- sales, was 26.8% in the third Continued from page B1 to show. Two major broker-
hours trading. quarter of 2022. Anderson said virtually no buy- ages, Anywhere Real Estate
Unveiled in 2019, the Cy- Musk has sought to reas- ers even toured his home. It and Re/Max Holdings, both
bertruck is Tesla’s first new sure investors by arguing that eventually sold for $15,000 less agreed to settle claims against
passenger model in more than Tesla’s future is in software, than he originally listed it for. them in the two class actions
three years and the only new including autonomous driving “I believe that when my for almost $140 million com-
offering expected to hit the technology that he expects house went on the market bined. The firms, which ad-
market soon. He added that will eventually help generate through REX that we were mitted no wrongdoing, agreed
Tesla expects to eventually generous profits. completely and utterly black- Anderson’s home sold for $15,000 below his initial listing price. not to require their agents to
produce 250,000 Cybertrucks Tesla’s stock has roughly balled by the real-estate mar- belong to NAR.
a year but not until 2025 at doubled in 2023 after a disap- ket,” he said. with a lower commission rate “What is at stake here is Another brokerage, Redfin,
the earliest. pointing 2022 but remains be- REX, which is now defunct, for fear that agents will steer the future of buyer represen- which isn’t a defendant in the
On Wednesday, Tesla reaf- low its highs from two years recorded a call with a buyer’s clients away from their home. tation,” said Katie Johnson, class actions, recently an-
firmed its goal of delivering ago. agent interested in Anderson’s An academic study released NAR’s chief legal officer. In nounced it was requiring many
1.8 million vehicles to custom- Tesla will need to deliver home until she realized there this month provides some evi- court documents, the associa- of its agents to leave NAR. The
ers this year, up from 1.3 mil- more than 475,000 cars and was no guaranteed commis- dence of these concerns. It tion said sellers’ agents pay trade group is “defending the
lion in 2022, but Tesla execu- SUVs in the final three months sion. “I won’t bother to show found that home listings offer- the commissions to buyers’ indefensible” in the lawsuits,
tives demurred when asked of 2023 to achieve its goal of it,” she said. A former REX ing lower buyers’ agent com- agents to attract more interest said company Chief Executive
about growth plans for next selling 1.8 million vehicles this data scientist said the record- missions take significantly in their homes. Glenn Kelman.
year. year. ing and about 600 similar more time to sell and are In a report released this The case currently on trial
“It is not possible to have a Tesla’s price reductions ones have been turned over to much less likely to sell at all, month, Ryan Tomasello, a real- is unfolding in a Kansas City,
compound growth rate of 50% have continued into October plaintiffs’ attorneys and the even after controlling for fac- estate industry analyst with Mo., courtroom, where a fed-
forever or you will exceed the for the Model 3 car and Model Justice Department. tors such as the home’s age Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, pre- eral jury is considering claims
mass of the known universe,” Y crossover, and analysts an- The plaintiffs in the class and location. dicted that the lawsuits could by home sellers in several
Musk said. ticipate the automotive gross actions, who are home sellers The National Association of lead to a 30% reduction in the Midwestern states against
He also was circumspect margin will fall further in the in different regions of the Realtors, a defendant in both $100 billion that Americans NAR and major national bro-
when discussing Tesla’s fourth quarter. country, say the longstanding cases, says the current system pay in real-estate commissions kerage companies.
planned factory in Mexico, Teslas sold for an average industry rules amount to a helps first-time home buyers every year and push well over Another class action, based
saying he is hesitant to “go of around $44,000 in the third conspiracy to keep costs high and those with modest means half of the roughly 1.6 million in an Illinois federal court, in-
full tilt” on the project. “I quarter, compared with about in violation of U.S. antitrust by sparing them a significant agents out of the industry. volves 20 markets and could
don’t want to be going at top $54,000 in the same period of law. Buyers, they say, have lit- upfront cost when purchasing “The writing is on the wall go to trial next year. Plaintiffs
speed into uncertainty,” he 2022. tle incentive to negotiate with a home. Buyers might other- given the attacks that the in- in both suits are claiming
their agents because they wise put themselves at a dis- dustry has right now from all damages that could total more
don’t pay them directly, while advantage by not having their sides,” Tomasello said. than $40 billion, according to
sellers are loath to experiment own agent, the group says. Ever since Zillow went on- Tomasello’s calculations.
ing at the warehouse retailing 2022. sales in recent years. founders, will stay on as an
giant. Vachris started out as a Costco shares are trading adviser through April 2024
Ron Vachris, 58 years old, forklift driver and has steadily near their records and the and will remain a member of
the company’s president and climbed through the manage- company’s business has been the Costco board.
chief operating officer, will ment ranks, including stints in buoyed by the pandemic and —Sarah Nassauer
Tesla’s growth in China has been tested by the rise of BYD. take over in January, becom- merchandising and real estate. strong consumer spending. contributed to this article.
.
BUSINESS NEWS
lowed by middle seats, and status. Top travelers who have nounced. That equates to
then aisles. Groups traveling flown millions of miles with spending $5,000 on flights or
on the same reservation will Delta will have their lifetime $50,000 to $100,000 on co-
still board together. status boosted. branded credit cards.
Airplane boarding has be- For airlines, the process is a logistical challenge that can frustrate customers and cause delays. “I appreciate your opinions The top Diamond Medallion
come a Byzantine process that and understand your disap- level will drop to 28,000 medal-
can frustrate customers and harder, but new big overhead able to manage five boarding Other airlines have been pointment. Your voice matters, lion qualifying dollars, down
put airlines behind schedule, bins that can fit more bags groups and had to combine tinkering with boarding. and we are listening,” Delta from 35,000. The airline will al-
causing delays that can ripple can ease the stress—once pas- middle and aisle seats into a Southwest Airlines this year Chief Executive Ed Bastian low more visits to its Sky Clubs
throughout the day. sengers get used to turning single group to make space for has conducted experiments in wrote in a letter to customers for people who have its Delta
For airlines, boarding is a bags sideways. No matter Basic Economy passengers Atlanta as it looks to shave on Wednesday. SkyMiles Reserve and Delta
logistical puzzle as well as a what, crowding at gates and whose tickets often don’t in- five minutes off the time a Delta executives had said SkyMiles Reserve Business
psychological test as they try logjams on jet bridges seem clude carry-on bags. plane spends at the gate be- they hadn’t seen credit-card American Express cards. Start-
to balance speed, fairness and inevitable. Now, an airline spokes- tween flights. Small reduc- sign-ups falter or more card ing in February 2025, those
revenue. Earlier access to In a memo to employees, woman said United has the tions in that “turn” time can cancellations since announcing cardholders will be able to ac-
overhead bin space is often a United said things have gotten “technical flexibility” to add a add up over the course of the the changes. But the adjust- cess lounges 15 days a year.
perk for higher paying cus- even worse as travel has re- sixth group. day and allow for more flying. ments reflect fierce competition American Express said its
tomers, and some clamor to bounded from the pandemic. United will still allow peo- Engineers and academics for high-end customers. U.S. Platinum Card and Business
get on first. Boarding times have increased ple with disabilities, active- have studied the boarding Bastian previously said Platinum Card holders will also
Carriers by up to two duty military members, unac- process and have different some of the airline’s changes get a boost in lounge access.
tried tweaks minutes since companied minors and others theories on the speediest pro-
like better sign- 2019, the air- to board early. The process cedure.
age and text- Boarding times line said. will stay the same for passen- Jason Steffen, an astro-
message alerts increased by up “WILMA gers sitting in first or busi- physicist and associate profes-
about when to boarding was ness class and those with sta- sor at the University of Ne-
head to the to two minutes tested at four tus or credit-card perks that vada, Las Vegas who has
gate. The num- domestic line give them priority-boarding studied the problem, said
ber of boarding
since 2019, the stations and rights. there is a faster method that
groups has pro- airline said. one hub and it’s The third boarding group, would board passengers in al-
liferated as air- faster,” the air- which includes those sitting in ternating rows to avoid
V I S I T G E T W S J . C O M /G I F T 2 3 O R C A L L ( 8 8 8 ) 5 5 6 - 7 7 3 0
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TECHNOLOGY WSJ.com/Tech
warehouses in Houston. companies that have chased Brady, chief technologist at ing among the fund’s first re-
“The faster we can process the “holy grail” of robotics, or Amazon Robotics, said the cipients. And the same year, it
inventory, the greater the machines as dexterous, quick company’s robotics are meant unveiled Sparrow, which can
probability that we’re going to and adaptable as a human arm to eliminate mundane tasks pick up a variety of objects as
be able to deliver when we and hand. Rivals such as Wal- and work alongside its human easily as humans can. An Amazon facility in the Netherlands.
.
Is it possible
to detect a DDoS attack before
it disrupts your business?
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Private-Equity
Firm Bides Time
On Renewables
BY LUIS GARCIA ecutive at German automaker
Mercedes-Benz, as senior
Private-equity firm Kim- managing director to speed up
meridge Energy Management its clean-energy investing, and
is biding its time to expand in- in September the firm said it
ERIC PIERMONT/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
But Big Hurdles Are Impeding Growth The firm plans to build an
“integrated business from
wellhead to water” producing
and transporting gas while
in August said they were sell-
ing battery-projects developer
Broad Reach Power to French
utility Engie for more than $1
marketing and exporting it, billion.
BY YUSUF KHAN A new report from consult- bonize hard-to-abate sectors, projects in the U.S. were an- according to Dell, a Kim- Dell said utility-scale bat-
ing firm McKinsey forecasts a such as maritime transport nounced by the Energy De- meridge managing partner. tery storage remains in its
Hydrogen demand is set to fivefold rise in hydrogen de- and heavy industry. Using partment. The firm manages roughly $5 early days and Kimmeridge
rise sharply over the next two mand to 600 million metric green hydrogen as fuel for But the industry says more billion. hasn’t found the right oppor-
decades, but major bottlenecks tons a year by 2050 if climate steelmaking can cut emissions policy support is needed. “Reg- While some other oil-and- tunity to make bigger bets in
such as long permitting times, change is limited to 1.5 degrees by up to 95%, according to H2 ulators haven’t created a level gas-focused firms have poured renewables, which he said re-
higher equipment costs and Celsius. On current trajecto- Green Steel, a Swedish low- playing field for hydrogen,” billions of dollars into renew- minds him of the shale boom
lack of access to capital could ries, however, that supply carbon steel startup. said Margery Ryan, market re- able-energy businesses in re- when a growth-at-any-cost
slow growth in supply. could be between 175 million McKinsey identified three search manager of platinum cent years, Kimmeridge has mentality led companies to
“The big issue today is that to 291 million metric tons a main bottlenecks: Higher costs, group metals at British chemi- announced just three nontra- burn billions of dollars to in-
a lot of announcements are year if steps aren’t taken to slow permitting and a lack of cals firm Johnson Matthey. ditional energy deals. The crease production unprofit-
coming on stream which have speed up permitting and lower access to capital. More government backing is largest involves ably.
a lot of potential, but only 6% both equipment and invest- “Inflation, raw materials, needed to foster demand, in- as much as “When you
to 10% are actually committed ment costs, the report the cost of energy all have an cluding the shift to green steel, $200 million look at the al-
[in terms of financing],” said warned. impact on capex and on equip- green ammonia, hydrogen- for Chestnut Kimmeridge ternative-en-
Pierre-Etienne Franc, CEO of Increasing the supply of hy- ment supplies,” Franc said. powered trucks and the build- Carbon, a hasn’t found the ergy space, it is
Hy24, a hydrogen-focused in- drogen is crucial to global car- Higher interest rates have out of the fueling infrastruc- startup dedi- doing what the
vestment fund. bon goals as a way to decar- made securing funding for big ture. “If we get more cated to gener- right chance for shale industry
infrastructure projects more regulatory support, we could ating carbon- did. It’s focused
expensive, with fewer willing see demand taking off,” she offset credits
bigger bets in on volume
ADVERTISEMENT
to put up the cash, according said. from forests. green energy. growth because
The Marketplace
to Franc. “If you do not have Faster permitting times are Such credits there’s a vol-
direct supply financing at low needed to bring more hydro- are critical to ume narrative
To advertise: 800-366-3975 or WSJ.com/classifieds interest rates, it is very diffi- gen projects online, as well as achieving net- in the market,”
cult to speed up the shift,” he the renewable energy to power zero emissions goals because Dell said. That can generate
added. their electrolyzers, industry oil and gas will still be needed uncovered costs and losses be-
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE Jason Cheng, CEO of cli- experts say. for decades, Dell said. cause “it’s all about growing
mate-focused hedge fund Ker- A recent report from the In- “There’s a component of megawatts, not profitability,”
ogen Capital, underscored that ternational Energy Agency said the environmental wing that he said.
MARKETS DIGEST
EQUITIES
Dow Jones Industrial Average S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index
Last Year ago Last Year ago Last Year ago
33665.08 t 332.57, or 0.98% Trailing P/E ratio 23.48 18.42 4314.60 t 58.60, or 1.34% Trailing P/E ratio * 20.14 17.85 13314.30 t 219.44, or 1.62% Trailing P/E ratio *† 30.05 23.02
High, low, open and close for each P/E estimate * 18.47 16.19 High, low, open and close for each P/E estimate * 19.52 16.37 High, low, open and close for each P/E estimate *† 26.78 20.34
trading day of the past three months. Dividend yield 2.15 2.34 trading day of the past three months. Dividend yield * 1.68 1.80 trading day of the past three months. Dividend yield *† 0.86 1.00
All-time high 36799.65, 01/04/22 All-time high 4796.56, 01/03/22 All-time high: 16057.44, 11/19/21
COMMODITIES wsj.com/market-data/commodities
for each week 1250 Humana HUM 8.150 6.92 June 15, ’38 200 –10 n.a.
Distillates 4,416 ... 3,670 4,072 3,968 4,135
Residual fuel oil 341 ... 246 372 292 313 250
…And spreads that widened the most
Propane/propylene 1,493 ... 587 1,486 837 ... O N D J F M A M J J A S Royal Bank of Canada RY 3.625 6.08 May 4, ’27 117 82 112
Other oils 5,235 ... 5,089 4,743 5,003 ... 2022 2023 ANZ New Zealand Int'l ANZNZ 1.250 5.98 June 22, ’26 97 47 96
Note: Expected changes are provided by Dow Jones Newswires' survey of analysts. Previous and average inventory data are in millions. 32
HSBC Holdings HSBC 4.300 6.36 March 8, ’26 131 115
Sources: FactSet; Dow Jones Market Data; U.S. Energy Information Administration; Dow Jones Newswires
Citigroup C 3.400 6.25 May 1, ’26 120 18 122
Exchange-Traded Portfolios | WSJ.com/ETFresearch Goldman Sachs GS 6.750 6.99 Oct. 1, ’37 208 13
12
204
Toyota Motor Credit TOYOTA 5.400 5.60 Nov. 10, ’25 41 40
Closing Chg YTD 11
Largest 100 exchange-traded funds, latest session ETF Symbol Price (%) (%) Banco Santander SANTAN 4.250 6.75 April 11, ’27 183 147
SPDR S&PMdCpTr MDY 448.58 –2.23 1.3 Morgan Stanley MS 4.300 6.50 Jan. 27, ’45 128 10 117
Wednesday, October 18, 2023 Closing Chg YTD
ETF Symbol Price (%) (%) SPDR S&P Div SDY 113.92 –1.27 –8.9
ETF
Closing Chg YTD
Symbol Price (%) (%) iSh1-5YIGCorpBd IGSB 49.40 –0.17 –0.8
TechSelectSector
VangdInfoTech
XLK
VGT
167.72
420.23
–1.03
–1.37
34.8
31.6
High-yield issues with the biggest price increases…
iSh1-3YTreaBd SHY 80.70 ... –0.6 VangdSC Val VBR 156.53 –2.07 –1.4 Bond Price as % of face value
CnsmrDiscSelSector XLY 158.12 –2.35 22.4 Issuer Symbol Coupon (%) Yield (%) Maturity Current One-day change Last week
CnsStapleSelSector XLP 68.03 0.37 –8.7 iShRussMC IWR 68.40 –2.08 1.4 VangdExtMkt VXF 140.06 –2.38 5.4
DimenUSCoreEq2 DFAC 26.17 –1.51 7.8 iShRuss1000 IWB 236.20 –1.41 12.2 VangdDivApp VIG 156.17 –0.88 2.8
iShRuss1000Grw IWF 270.54 –1.50 26.3 VangdFTSEAWxUS VEU 51.03 –1.66 1.8 Rite Aid RAD 7.700 0.00 Feb. 15, ’27 10.475 2.79 7.000
EnSelSectorSPDR XLE 91.96 0.91 5.1
iShRuss1000Val IWD 150.41 –1.34 –0.8 VangdFTSEDevMk VEA 42.91 –1.70 2.2 0.19
FinSelSectorSPDR XLF 33.14 –1.72 –3.1
iShRussell2000 IWM 171.35 –2.06 –1.7 VangdFTSE EM VWO 38.50 –1.64 –1.2
Dish DBS …. 5.875 14.26 Nov. 15, ’24 91.938 93.125
HealthCareSelSect XLV 129.85 –0.87 –4.4
IndSelSectorSPDR XLI 100.66 –2.41 2.5
iShS&P500Grw IVW 69.43 –1.24 18.7 VangdFTSE Europe VGK 56.99 –1.84 2.8 Ball BALL 5.250 6.60 July 1, ’25 97.850 0.10 98.220
iShS&P500Value IVE 153.36 –1.42 5.7 VangdGrowth VUG 276.18 –1.59 29.6
InvscNasd100 QQQM 149.49 –1.33 36.5 0.10
iShSelectDiv DVY 107.38 –1.29 –11.0 VangdHlthCr VHT 235.44 –1.02 –5.1 Teva Pharmaceutical Finance … 6.150 8.35 Feb. 1, ’36 83.300 86.315
InvscQQQI QQQ 363.37 –1.31 36.5
iSh7-10YTreaBd IEF 89.39 –0.47 –6.7 VangdHiDiv VYM 103.05 –0.88 –4.8
InvscS&P500EW RSP 140.48 –1.58 –0.5
iShShortTreaBd SHV 110.29 0.01 0.3 VangdIntermBd BIV 70.75 –0.46 –4.8 OneMain Finance OMF 6.875 8.02 March 15, ’25 98.500 0.01 98.875
iShCoreDivGrowth DGRO 49.51 –1.04 –1.0
iShTIPSBondETF TIP 102.62 –0.21 –3.6 VangdIntrCorpBd VCIT 74.13 –0.63 –4.4
iShCoreMSCIEAFE IEFA 63.10 –1.76 2.4
iShCoreMSCIEM IEMG 46.89 –1.64 0.4
iSh20+YTreaBd
iShUSTreasuryBd
TLT
GOVT
84.50
21.68
–0.88 –15.1
–0.32 –4.6
VangdIntermTrea
VangdLC
VGIT
VV
56.25
197.11
–0.27
–1.35
–3.8
13.2
…And with the biggest price decreases
iShCoreMSCITotInt IXUS 58.85 –1.72 1.7 iSh0-3MTreaBd SGOV 100.51 0.02 0.4 VangdMC VO 206.41 –1.82 1.3
iShCoreS&P500 IVV 432.31 –1.31 12.5 Dish DBS … 7.750 24.68 July 1, ’26 67.970 –1.53 71.250
JPMEquityPrem JEPI 53.54 –0.96 –1.7 VangdMC Val VOE 129.70 –1.78 –4.1
iShCoreS&P MC IJH 244.96 –2.22 1.3 –1.25
iShCoreS&P SC IJR 92.14 –1.91 –2.6
JPM UltShIncm JPST 50.08 ... –0.1 VangdMBS VMBS 42.51 –0.58 –6.6 Transocean RIG 6.800 10.47 March 15, ’38 73.000 74.500
PacerUSCashCows100 COWZ 49.66 –0.80 7.4 VangdRealEst VNQ 74.66 –2.12 –9.5
iShCoreS&PTotUS ITOT 94.47 –1.44 11.4 ProShUltPrQQQ TQQQ 36.68 –4.23 112.0 VangdS&P500ETF VOO 395.22 –1.34 12.5 Intesa Sanpaolo ISPIM 5.710 8.67 Jan. 15, ’26 94.092 –0.84 95.390
iShCoreTotalUSDBd IUSB 42.79 –0.42 –4.8 SPDRBbg1-3MTB BIL 91.65 0.01 0.2 VangdST Bond BSV 74.64 –0.13 –0.9
iShCoreUSAggBd AGG 92.02 –0.47 –5.1 Ford Motor Credit … 4.389 7.67 Jan. 8, ’26 93.426 –0.82 94.615
SPDR DJIA Tr DIA 336.63 –0.99 1.6 VangdSTCpBd VCSH 74.49 –0.16 –0.9
iShEdgeMSCIMinUSA USMV 73.05 –0.75 1.3 SPDR Gold GLD 180.87 1.45 6.6 VangdShtTmInfltn VTIP 46.95 –0.09 0.5
iShEdgeMSCIUSAQual QUAL 134.29 –1.28 17.8 Bath & Body Works BBWI 6.875 8.39 Nov. 1, ’35 88.688 –0.81 90.000
SPDRPtfDevxUS SPDW 30.44 –1.68 2.5 VangdShortTrea VGSH 57.39 0.02 –0.7
iShGoldTr IAU 36.92 1.46 6.7 SPYV –0.77
iShiBoxx$HYCpBd HYG 72.04 –0.48 –2.2
SPDRS&P500Value 41.13 –1.46 5.8 VangdSC VB 185.34 –2.20 1.0 Tenet Healthcare THC 6.875 8.67 Nov. 15, ’31 89.730 92.500
SPDRPtfS&P500 SPLG 50.58 –1.37 12.4 VangdTaxExemptBd VTEB 47.60 –0.27 –3.8
iShiBoxx$IGCpBd LQD 99.08 –0.80 –6.0 SPDRS&P500Growth SPYG 60.14 –1.25 18.7 VangdTotalBd BND 68.34 –0.43 –4.9 Hughes Satellite Systems … 6.625 12.63 Aug. 1, ’26 86.250 –0.75 86.500
iShMBS MBB 86.18 –0.65 –7.1 SPDR S&P 500 SPY 430.21 –1.33 12.5 VangdTotIntlBd BNDX 47.41 –0.19 –0.0
iShMSCIACWI ACWI 92.32 –1.43 8.8 SchwabIntEquity SCHF 33.41 –1.65 3.7 VangdTotIntlStk VXUS 52.54 –1.70 1.6 Teva Pharmaceutical Finance Netherlands … 3.150 8.31 Oct. 1, ’26 86.760 –0.71 88.875
iShMSCI EAFE EFA 67.77 –1.74 3.2 SchwabUS BrdMkt SCHB 49.98 –1.44 11.5 VangdTotalStk VTI 213.09 –1.48 11.5
iSh MSCI EM EEM 37.46 –1.52 –1.2 SchwabUS Div SCHD 70.62 –1.13 –6.5 VangdTotWrldStk VT 92.64 –1.52 7.5 *Estimated spread over 2-year, 3-year, 5-year, 10-year or 30-year hot-run Treasury; 100 basis points=one percentage pt.; change in spread shown is for Z-spread.
iShMSCIEAFEValue EFV 48.10 –1.60 4.8 SchwabUS LC SCHX 50.85 –1.45 12.6 VangdValue VTV 137.59 –1.03 –2.0 Note: Data are for the most active issue of bonds with maturities of two years or more
iShNatlMuniBd MUB 101.56 –0.19 –3.8 SchwabUS LC Grw SCHG 74.03 –1.65 33.2 WisdTrFRTrea USFR 50.44 ... 0.3 Source: MarketAxess
.
B10 | Thursday, October 19, 2023 * **** THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
Stanley
Profit Falls
3.5
3.0
3Q 2023
$2.41B
2
0
Bank of
America
Of Smithfield
Readies U.S. IPO
2.5
JPMorgan
2.0 –2
Continued from page B1 Citigroup
on some of these capital trans- 1.5
actions.” –4 Goldman
Sachs
Wall Street banks enjoyed a 1.0 The Chinese parent of pork surged following the outbreak,
deal-making spree in the pan- –6
Morgan giant Smithfield Foods is and American pork producers
demic, fueled in part by buyout 0.5 Stanley working with banks to take the expanded farms and processing
firms and blank-check compa- 10-minute intervals 87-year-old business public plants as Chinese demand
0 –8
nies. Businesses flush with again in the U.S. boomed. U.S. exports began
cash and optimistic about the 2022 ’23 Oct. 12 13 16 17 18 Smithfield, the largest U.S. plummeting last year after
economy were eager to grow. Sources: the company (net income); FactSet (share-price performance) pork producer, could list its China rebuilt its hog popula-
Low rates made it cheap to shares as early as next year, ac- tion, creating an industrywide
borrow. environment as “a slow grind cording to people familiar with glut that is squeezing pork-in-
But things changed starting with some positive momentum the matter. Deliberations con- dustry profits. High livestock
early last year. The Fed began but obviously significant uncer- tinue, and the timing could feed prices following Russia’s
raising interest rates. Econo- tainty.” change, the people said. invasion of Ukraine have added
mists talked about a recession. Overall, Morgan Stanley on to the challenges, industry ex-
Corporate executives stepped Wednesday posted a profit of By Dave Sebastian, ecutives say.
back from completing deals or $2.41 billion, or $1.38 a share. Patrick Thomas WH had been in talks with
ANGUS MORDANT/BLOOMBERG NEWS
taking their companies public. That beat the $1.28 a share ex- and Ben Dummett bankers on ways to boost its
That slowdown has lasted lon- pected by analysts, according slumping valuation, people fa-
ger than many bankers had ex- to estimates compiled by Fact- Smithfield was acquired in miliar with the matter said.
pected. Set. Revenue rose 2% to about 2013 by China’s top meat pro- The U.S. IPO market recently
Globally across the industry, $13.3 billion, roughly in line ducer, which is known today as hosted some prominent listings
the total deal value of mergers with what analysts expected. WH Group. The $4.7 billion after an 18-month lull, with
and acquisitions during the Sandy Pomeroy, senior port- deal marked one of the biggest heavyweights like British chip
first three quarters of the year folio manager of the Neuberger takeovers of an American busi- designer Arm, grocery-delivery
fell about 28% compared with Berman equity income fund, The lender’s investment-banking revenue declined 27%. ness by a Chinese company at company Instacart and market-
the same period last year, ac- said she was “a little bit the time and resulted in the de- ing-automation platform
cording to Dealogic. shocked and dismayed” by the at Goldman. It was up at Citi- “This has been a story of listing of Smithfield, which Klaviyo offering their shares.
Executives across the indus- stock’s sharp drop. “All I can group and Bank of America. transformation into margin used to trade on the New York Smithfield’s Chinese owner-
try were cautious about pre- think about is that these are Morgan Stanley is usually growth in the wealth-manage- Stock Exchange. The combined ship has been a point of criti-
dicting when investment bank- not long-only people,” she said. protected in volatile spells by ment business and candidly company became the world’s cism in Washington, with law-
ing might bounce back. But Pomeroy, whose fund in- its business managing money those expectations on profits largest hog farmer and pork makers saying they want to
they also said they hoped that cludes Morgan Stanley and for wealthy clients. The bank and flows into wealth manage- producer and went public in ensure the U.S. food supply
corporate CEOs have now had Goldman shares, said she has built up that business over ment weren’t there,” said Char- Hong Kong in 2014 after rais- chain is protected and that
the time to adjust to the new thought the investment-bank- the past decade and relies on it lie Ryan, portfolio manager and ing more than $2.3 billion. China can’t use U.S. farmland
realities of the market. ing business would perk up heavily. In the third quarter, partner at Evercore Wealth WH’s shares have recently to facilitate spying. Smithfield
Jane Fraser, chief executive soon. Both banks “are at low the unit accounted for nearly Management, a Morgan Stanley languished and are trading Chief Executive Shane Smith
of Citigroup, noted that Citi’s points in the cycle right now half of total company revenue. shareholder. near a record low, giving WH a has said the concerns were
debt underwriting had shot and that’s the opportunity that Revenue in the wealth-man- Morgan Stanley’s retail-trad- market capitalization of more misplaced and that WH’s back-
higher in the quarter. “We’ve you’re buying.” agement business was up 5%, ing customers numbered 8.1 than $7 billion. The company ing has helped it boost sales.
seen clients who get off the Morgan Stanley’s invest- but some shareholders said million at the end of Septem- was valued at about $18 billion Virginia-based Smithfield
sidelines and just bite the bul- ment bank did post an increase they were disappointed. ber, up 4% from a year ago. But at its highest closing price in supplies hams and other fresh
let,” she said on a call last in equity underwriting, as did Net new assets in wealth those customers are trading 2018, until hog herds in China, pork cuts to grocers’ meat
week with analysts. most other big banks. management totaled $35.7 bil- less often. The average daily the world’s top pork consumer, cases and sells products under
Jeremy Barnum, JPMorgan’s Trading revenue fell 4%. lion, down 45% from a year ago number of retail trades the were devastated by an African brands including Armour,
chief financial officer, de- Trading revenue also slipped at and the lowest since the sec- company handled was about swine-fever outbreak that year. Farmland and Nathan’s Fa-
scribed the investment-banking JPMorgan and was roughly flat ond quarter of 2020. 735,000, down from 805,000. Pork exports from the U.S. mous.
50
80
40
60
30
40
20
20
10
0 0
Feb. 2022 ’23 2021 ’22 ’23
*Shows the bid price of the company’s 6.15% bond, due in September 2025
Note: 10 billion yuan=$1.37 billion
Sources: Tradeweb (bond); the company (contracted sales)
MARKETS
Bond Yield Tops 4.9%, Theoretical Models showing recent increase in the 10-year term premium
2%
Number
Kim-Wright
Grips Street 0
Manchester United Shareholders May Have Scored After All political tensions with the West.
If the rosy view of China’s long-
term prospects does change, it
would be painful but manageable
Manchester United sharehold- see a cent and might sue. He will Stepping back from the immedi- suming that the rest would then for P&G: It derived 9% of global
ers are acting like despondent soc- therefore reportedly buy at least ate disappointment of a missed trade at their level before the sales from the Greater China re-
cer fans after video-refereeing some A shares as well, but it is opportunity, though, shareholders Glazers earmarks the club for sale, gion in its latest fiscal year and
technology disallows a goal. Yet unclear how many. might see that their position in someone buying a block of A 50% from North America.
they might still win the match. Manchester United sharehold- this game is still strong. shares at the current $18 price But optimistic China forecasts
The British soccer club’s pub- ers, notably the hedge funds that Ratcliffe’s entry into the club could theoretically sell it for a bit like P&G’s underpin the long-term
licly traded Class A shares have typically swoop into deal situa- could be just the start. Whether more than $24 a share on average. business plans of many giant multi-
lost roughly 10% of their value tions, shouldn’t want to be stuck because some of the Glazers were Of course, the details are un- nationals, some of which are far
since the weekend, when it was with the shares. Soccer isn’t usu- reluctant to sell or because buying confirmed, so this math may not more reliant on the country for
widely reported that British bil- ally a good business. European the entire club at once was pro- fully work out. Still, the downside growth. If the China story needs to
lionaire Jim Ratcliffe is in talks to clubs tend to have slim profit mar- hibitively expensive, he has hinted doesn’t seem huge: Historically, be revisited more fundamentally, the
buy a 25% stake through his petro- gins and have performed poorly that a majority stake might be the the shares have tracked sideways implications will be far-reaching.
chemical company Ineos. The on the stock market. endgame. around a median daily close of —Aaron Back
other bidder, Sheikh Jassim Bin Ratcliffe, who would Also, Richard Ev- roughly $17.
Hamad al-Thani, chairman of Qa- be given control over ans, co-managing A final reason for optimism is
tar Islamic Bank, dropped out. the sporting side of Ratcliffe has partner at Dallas- that Ineos has experience invest- P&G quarterly unit sales volume,
Investors are rightly gutted. the club, wants to hinted that a based investment ing in sports. Its 2019 purchase of change from a year earlier
The Qatari offer was a full buyout restore it to its for- firm Mara River French soccer club OGC Nice
that valued the club above $6 bil- mer glory. This majority stake Capital, points out hasn’t yielded silverware so far,
4%
lion, compared with a current might come at the that the mechanics but it has showcased prudent fi-
market value of $3.3 billion. The expense of financial
might be the of the current deal nancial management. And despite
2
premium is understandable given returns. endgame. may be more favor- their reputation, the Glazers have
0
that Los Angeles Dodgers part- The Glazers are able than many in- actually spent heavily on foot-
owner Todd Boehly bought Chel- hated among many vestors realize. He ballers in recent years—they just
sea FC for the equivalent of $5.2 Manchester United recently added to his chose poorly. This and the pan- –2
billion last year. fans because they spent years shareholding in the club. demic explain why Manchester
Because Manchester United is milking the club for cash. After Ratcliffe is said to be paying United has reported losses even as –4
listed on the New York Stock Ex- initially riding the wave of a gen- about £1.4 billion, equivalent to revenue has rebounded. New man-
change, Ratcliffe would technically eration of players such as Cris- $1.7 billion, for his 25% stake, giv- agement needs only to be a bit –6
be able to purchase stock directly tiano Ronaldo, Wayne Rooney and ing a valuation slightly above the more competent to achieve better
from the U.S.-based Glazer family, Rio Ferdinand, they allowed the Qatari’s. Some reports have sug- results.
who hold the Class B shares that team to fall into mediocrity. Under gested that he may split this sum Investors may not know if they –8
account for 68% of the overall to- the Ratcliffe deal, they would re- equally between A and B shares, have scored a goal yet, but it is FY2022 ’23 ’24
tal and 95% of the votes. In this main as insiders and control the which would mean buying 39% of looking good on the replay. Note: Fiscal year ends in June
scenario, A shareholders wouldn’t commercial side of the business. the former at almost $42 each. As- —Jon Sindreu Source: the company