Probability:

Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event to occur. Many events cannot be

predicted with total certainty. Using probability, one can predict only the chance of an event
to occur, i.e., how likely they are going to happen. For example, when a coin is tossed, there
is a probability to get heads or tails.
Properties:
 Probability of an impossible event is phi or a null set.
 The maximum probability of an event is its sample space (sample space is the total
number of possible outcomes)
 Probability of any event exists between 0 and 1. (0 can also be a probability).
 There cannot be a negative probability for an event.
 If A and B are two mutually exclusive outcomes (Two events that cannot occur at the
same time), then the probability of A or B occurring is the probability of A plus the
probability of B.
The probability formula is the ratio of the possibility of the occurrence of an outcome to the
total number of outcomes.
Probability of occurrence of an event P(E) = Number of favourable outcomes/Total Number
of outcomes.
General Probability Rules
Rule 1: The probability of an impossible event is zero; the probability of a certain event is
one. Therefore, for any event A, the range of possible probabilities is: 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
Rule 2: For S the sample space of all possibilities, P(S) = 1. That is the sum of all the
probabilities for all possible events is equal to one. Recall the party affiliation above: if you
have to belong to one of the three designated political parties, then the sum of P(R), P(D) and
P(I) is equal to one.
Rule 3: For any event A, P(Ac) = 1 - P(A). It follows then that P(A) = 1 - P(Ac)
Rule 4 (Addition Rule): This is the probability that either one or both events occur
a. If two events, say A and B, are mutually exclusive - that is A and B have no outcomes in
common - then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
b. If two events are NOT mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
Rule 5 (Multiplication Rule): This is the probability that both events occur
a. P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B|A) or P(B)*P(A|B) Note: this straight line symbol, |, does not
mean divide! This symbols means "conditional" or "given". For instance P(A|B) means the
probability that event A occurs given event B has occurred.
b. If A and B are independent - neither event influences or affects the probability that the
other event occurs - then P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B). This particular rule extends to more than
two independent events. For example, P(A and B and C) = P(A)*P(B)*P(C)
Rule 6 (Conditional Probability): P(A|B)=P(A and B)/P(B) or P(B|A)=P(A and B)/P(A)
Permutation and Combination
Permutation and combination form the principles of counting and they are applied in various
situations. A permutation is a count of the different arrangements which can be made from
the given set of things. In permutation the details matter, as the order or sequence is
important. Writing the names of three countries {USA, Brazil, Australia} or {Australia, USA,
Brazil) or { Brazil, Australia, USA} is different and this sequence in which the names of the
countries are written is important. In combinations, the name of three countries is just a single
group, and the sequence or order does not matter. Let us learn more about permutation and
combination in the below content.
What are Permutation and Combination?
Permutation and combination are the methods employed in counting how many outcomes are
possible in various situations. Permutations are understood as arrangements and combinations
are understood as selections. As per the fundamental principle of counting, there are the sum
rules and the product rules to employ counting easily.
Suppose there are 14 boys and 9 girls. If a boy or a girl has to be selected to be the monitor of
the class, the teacher can select 1 out of 14 boys or 1 out of 9 girls. She can do it in 14 + 9 =
23 ways(using the sum rule of counting). Let us look at another scenario. Suppose Sam
usually takes one main course and a drink. Today he has the choice of burger, pizza, hot dog,
watermelon juice, and orange juice. What are all the possible combinations that he can try?
There are 3 snack choices and 2 drink choices. We multiply to find the combinations. 3 × 2 =
6. Thus Sam can try 6 combinations using the product rule of counting. This can be shown
using tree diagrams as illustrated below.

In order to understand permutation and combination, the concept of factorials has to be

recalled. The product of the first n natural numbers is n! The number of ways of arranging n
unlike objects is n!.
Permutations
A permutation is an arrangement in a definite order of a number of objects taken some or all
at a time. Let us take 10 numbers: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9. The number of different 4-
digit-PIN which can be formed using these 10 numbers is 5040. P(10,4) = 5040. This is a
simple example of permutations. The permutations of 4 numbers taken from 10 numbers
equal to the factorial of 10 divided by the factorial of the difference of 10 and 4. The
permutations is easily calculated using nPr=n!(n−r)!nPr=n!(n−r)!.
Combinations
A combination is all about grouping. The number of different groups which can be formed
from the available things can be calculated using combinations. Let us try to understand this
with a simple example. A team of 2 is formed from 5 students(William, James, Noah, Logan,
and Oliver). This the combination of 'r' persons from the available 'n' persons is given
as nCr=n!r!.(n−r)!nCr=n!r!.(n−r)! The combinations can happen in the following 10 ways by
which the team of 2 could be formed.
 William James
 William Noah
 William Logan
 William Oliver
 James Noah
 James Logan
 James Oliver
 Logan Noah
 Logan Oliver
 Oliver Noah
This is a simple example of combinations. C(5,2) = 10.
What are the Permutation and Combination Formulas?
Permutation and combination formulas are helpful to find the permutation and combination
of r objects taken from n objects. The concept of permutations is used to find the different
arrangements and the concept of combinations is used to find the different groups. For the
given values of n and r, the permutations are always greater than the combinations.

Permutation And Combination Formulas

The counting situation is analyzed to determine whether to employ permutations or
combinations. Accordingly, the permutation and combination formulas are applied.
Formula 1: Factorial of a natural number n.
n! = 1 × 2 × 3 × 4 × .......× n
Formula 2: The number of distinct permutations of r objects which can me made from n
distinct objects is
nPr=n!(n−r)!nPr=n!(n−r)!, where 0 ≤ r ≤ n.
Formula 3: The number of permutations of n different things, taken r at a time, where
repetition is allowed, is nr.
Formula 4: The number of permutations of n objects taken all at a time, where p11 objects
are of the first kind, p22
objects are of the second kind, ..., pkk objects are of the kth kind and the rest if any, and if all
are different is
n!p1!p2!....pk!n!p1!p2!....pk!
Formula 5: The number of combinations of n different objects taken r at a time is given by
nCr=n!r!.(n−r)!nCr=n!r!.(n−r)!, where 0 ≤ r ≤ n.
This formula is sometimes also called as ncr formula.
Formula 6: The relationship between permutation and combination for r things taken from n
things.
nPr=r!×nCrnPr=r!×nCr
Derivation of Permutation and Combination Formulas
The permutations formula: The total number of permutations of a set of n objects taken r at a
time P(n,r) = n!/(n-r)!, where [n>= r]
The combination formula: The total number of combinations of a set of n objects taken r at a
time C(n,r) = n!/[r !(n-r)!], where [n>= r]
Let us look into the derivation below for a deeper understanding using our knowledge
in practical counting situations.
Derivation of Permutations Formula
Since a permutation involves selecting r distinct items without replacement from n items and
order is important, by the fundamental counting principle, we have
P (n, r) = n . (n-1) . (n-2) . (n-3)…… (n-(r-1)) ways.
This can be written as:
P (n, r) = n.(n-1).(n-2). (n-3) …. (n-r+1)---------------> (1)
Multiplying and Dividing (1) by (n-r) (n-r-1) (n-r-2)........... 3. 2. 1, we get
P (n, r) =
n.(n−1).(n−2).….(n−r+1)[(n−r)(n−r−1)(n−r−2)...3.2.1][(n−r)(n−r−1)(n−r−2)....3.2.1]n.(n−1).(
n−2).….(n−r+1)[(n−r)(n−r−1)(n−r−2)...3.2.1][(n−r)(n−r−1)(n−r−2)....3.2.1]
P (n, r) = n!(n−r)!n!(n−r)!
Derivation of Combinations Formula
Since combinations involve choosing r objects out of n objects where the order doesn't
matter, we can determine that:
C(n,r) = the number of permutations /number of ways to arrange r objects. [Since by the
fundamental counting principle, we know that the number of ways to arrange r objects in r
ways = r!]
C(n,r) = P (n, r)/ r!
C(n,r) = n!(n−r)!r!n!(n−r)!r!
Thus we derive C(n,r) =n!r!.(n−r)!n!r!.(n−r)!
Difference Between Permutation and Combination
The difference between the permutation and combination can be understood through the
following points.
 Permutations are used when order/sequence of arrangement is needed. Combinations are
used when only the number of possible groups are to be found, and the order/sequence of
arrangements is not needed.
 Permutations are used for things of a different kind. Combinations are used for things of a
similar kind.
 The permutation of two things from three given things a, b, c is ab, ba, bc, cb, ac, ca. The
combination of two things from three given things a, b, c is ab, bc, ca
 For different possible arrangement of things nPr=n!/(n-r)!. For different possible selection
of things nCr =n!/r!(n-r)!
 For a given set of n and r values, the permutation answer is larger than the combination
answer.
 Solved Examples Using Permutation and Combination Formulas
 Example 1: Patricia has to choose 5 marbles from 12 marbles. In how many ways can
she choose them?
Solution:
Patricia has to choose 5 out of 12 marbles. The order doesn't matter here.
Thus combinations used here. she can choose it in 12C55 ways.
12C5=12!5!×(12−5)!=12!5!×7!=12×11×10×9×8×7!5!×7!=12×11×10×9×85!=79212C5=1
2!5!×(12−5)!=12!5!×7!=12×11×10×9×8×7!5!×7!=12×11×10×9×85!=792
Answer: Therefore there are 792 ways
 Example 2: Find the permutation and combination given n = 8 and r = 5.
Solution:
Applying the factorials in the permutation and combination formulas, we get
nPr=n!(n−r)!nPr=n!(n−r)!
=8!/(8-5)!
= (8×7×6×5×4×3×2×1)/(3×2×1)
nPrnPr = 8×7×6×5×4 = 6720
nCr=n!r!.(n−r)!nCr=n!r!.(n−r)!
=8 !/ [5! (8-5)!]
=(8×7×6×5×4×3×2×1)/[(5×4×3×2×1)(3×2×1)]
=56
nCrnCr = 56
Answer: The permutation and combination given n = 8 and r = 5 is nPrnPr= 6720
and nCrnCr =56
 Example 3: A committee of 3 members is to be formed with 2 male members and 1
female member. Find the number of ways in which this committee can be formed from 5
male members and 4 female members.
Solution:
The aim is to form a committee of 3 members, with 2 male members and 1 female
member.
Number of male members = 5
Number of female members = 4
We can form this committee by taking 2 male members from 5 male members, and 1
female member from 4 female members.
We apply the combinations formula, to find the solution.
The number of ways of forming this committee = 5C2×4C15C2×4C1
=5 !/ [2! (3)!] × 4 !/ [1! (3)!]
= [120/12] × [24/6]
= 10 × 4 = 40
Answer: Therefore, the committee can be formed in 40 ways.
 Example 4: There are 10 marbles in a bag, numbered from 0 to 9. How many ways of 3
different digits could be formed by picking them up from the bag, without replacement?
Solution:
The number of permutations of 3 digits chosen from 10 marbles is 10P310P3
Using Permutations formula, we know nPr=n!(n−r)!nPr=n!(n−r)!
10P310P3= 10 !/ 7!
10× 9 × 8 =720
Answer: Thus in 720 ways, 3 digits can be formed from 10 marbles.
Descriptive Statistics:
Descriptive statistics summarize and organize characteristics of a data set. A data set
is a collection of responses or observations from a sample or entire population.
In quantitative research, after collecting data, the first step of statistical analysis is to describe
characteristics of the responses, such as the average of one variable (e.g., age), or the relation
between two variables (e.g., age and creativity).
Types of descriptive statistics
There are 3 main types of descriptive statistics:
 The distribution concerns the frequency of each value.
 The central tendency concerns the averages of the values.
 The variability or dispersion concerns how spread out the values are.
You can apply these to assess only one variable at a time, in univariate analysis, or to
compare two or more, in bivariate and multivariate analysis.

Frequency distribution
A data set is made up of a distribution of values, or scores. In tables or graphs, you can
summarize the frequency of every possible value of a variable in numbers or percentages.
This is called a frequency distribution.

Measures of central tendency

Measures of central tendency estimate the center, or average, of a data set. The mean, median
and mode are 3 ways of finding the average.
Here we will demonstrate how to calculate the mean, median, and mode using the first 6
responses of our survey.

Measures of variability
Measures of variability give you a sense of how spread out the response values are. The
range, standard deviation and variance each reflect different aspects of spread.

Range
The range gives you an idea of how far apart the most extreme response scores are. To find
the range, simply subtract the lowest value from the highest value.

Standard deviation
The standard deviation (s or SD) is the average amount of variability in your dataset. It tells
you, on average, how far each score lies from the mean. The larger the standard deviation, the
more variable the data set is.
There are six steps for finding the standard deviation:
1. List each score and find their mean.
2. Subtract the mean from each score to get the deviation from the mean.
3. Square each of these deviations.
4. Add up all of the squared deviations.
5. Divide the sum of the squared deviations by N – 1.
6. Find the square root of the number you found.

Variance
The variance is the average of squared deviations from the mean. Variance reflects the degree
of spread in the data set. The more spread the data, the larger the variance is in relation to the
mean.
To find the variance, simply square the standard deviation. The symbol for variance is s2.
Compound Probability
Compound probability is the probability of two or more independent events occurring
together. Compound probability can be calculated for two types of compound events, namely,
mutually exclusive and mutually inclusive compound events. The formulas to calculate the
compound probability for both types of events are different.
Compound probability is a concept that is widely used in the finance industry to assess risks
and assign premiums to various policies. In this article, we will learn more about compound
probability, its formulas, how to determine it as well as see various associated examples.
What is Compound Probability?
The compound probability of compound events (mutually inclusive or mutually
exclusive) can be defined as the likelihood of occurrence of two or more independent events
together. An independent event is one whose outcome is not affected by the outcome of other
events. A mutually inclusive event is a situation where one event cannot occur with the other
while a mutually exclusive event is when both events cannot take place at the same time. The
compound probability will always lie between 0 and 1.
Compound Probability Formulas
There are two formulas to calculate the compound probability depending on the type
of events that occur. In general, to find the compound probability, the probability of the first
event is multiplied by the probability of the second event and so on. The compound
probability formulas are given below:
Mutually Exclusive Events Compound Probability
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Using set theory this formula is given as,
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)
Mutually Inclusive Events Compound Probability
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ⋂ B)
where A and B are two independent events, and P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)

Compound Probability Example

Suppose a coin is tossed. The outcome of getting heads will be a simple event with a
probability of 1 / 2. However, if the coin is tossed twice then the outcome of getting two
heads will be a compound event. The compound probability of this event can be calculated as
(1 / 2) x (1 / 2) = 1 / 4 or 0.25. This is an example of compound probability.
How to Find Compound Probability?
The steps to apply the compound formulas can be understood with the help of an example.
Suppose the probability of Ryan failing an exam is 0.3 and the probability of Berta failing is
0.2. Then to find the compound probability of Ryan or Berta failing, the steps are as follows:
 Determine if the compound event is mutually exclusive or inclusive. This is an
example of a mutually inclusive event.
 List the given probabilities. P(R) = 0.3 and P(B) = 0.2.
 Determine the correct compound probability formula. This is P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
- P(A and B) for the given example
 Find P(A and B) which is given by P(A) x P(B). Thus, 0.2 x 0.3 = 0.6.
 Plug the values into the formula to get the result. Thus, the compound probability for
the example is 0.44

Notes
 Compound probability is the likelihood of occurrence of two independent compound
events together.
 Compound probability can be calculated for mutually exclusive and mutually
inclusive compound events.
 P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) and P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B) are the compound
probability formulas.
Conditional Probability
The conditional probability, as its name suggests, is the probability of happening an event
that is based upon a condition. For example, assume that the probability of a boy playing
tennis in the evening is 95% (0.95) whereas the probability that he plays given that it is a
rainy day is less which is 10% (0.1). Then the former case is just normal probability whereas
the latter case is the conditional probability. In this example, we represent the two
probabilities as P(Play tennis) = 0.95 and P(Play tennis | Rainy day) = 0.1.
Let us learn more about conditional probability along with its formula, examples, and
practice questions.
What Is Conditional Probability?
Conditional probability is one of the important concepts in probability and statistics. The
"probability of A given B" (or) the "probability of A with respect to the condition B" is
denoted by the conditional probability P(A | B) (or) P (A / B) (or) PBB(A). Thus, P(A | B)
represents the probability of A which happens after event B has happened already. the
probability of an event may alter if there is a condition given.
Definition of Conditional Probability
If A and B are two events associated with the same sample space of a random
experiment, the conditional probability of event A given that B has occurred is given by
P(A/B) = P( A ∩ B)/ P (B), provided P(B) ≠ 0.
Let us understand conditional probability with an example. Let us find the conditional
probability of getting at least two tails given that it is a head on the first toss when 3 coins are
tossed. The sample space, S (the list of all outcomes) when 3 coins are tossed is given as
follows:

Let us assume the two events A and B as follows:

 A = the event of getting at least two tails
 B = the event of getting a head on the first toss
Then, A = {HTT, THT, TTH, TTT} and B = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT}.
Then P(A) = 4/8 = 1/2 and P(B) = 4/8 = 1/2.
We have to find the probability of getting at least two tails given that it is a head on the first
toss. It means, out of all elements of B, we have to choose only the ones with two tails. We
can see that among the elements of B, there is only one element (which is HTT) with two
tails. Thus, the required probability is P(A | B) = 1/4 (only 1 outcome of B is favorable to A
out of 4 outcomes of B).
Conditional Probability Formula
In the above example, we have got P(A | B) = 1/4, here 1 represents the element HTT which
is present both in "A and B" and 4 represents the total number of elements in B. Using this,
we can derive the formula of conditional probability as follows.
P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B) (Note that P(B) ≠ 0 here)
Similarly, we can define P(B | A) as follows:
P(B | A) = P(A ∩ B) / P(A) (Note that P(A) ≠ 0 here)
These formulas are also known as the "Kolmogorov definition" of conditional probability.

Here:
 P(A | B) = The probability of A given B (or) the probability of A which happens after B
 P(B | A) = The probability of B given A (or) the probability of B which happens after A
 P(A ∩ B) = The probability of happening of both A and B
 P(A) = The probability of A
 P(B) = The probability of B
Derivation of Conditional Probability
Note that the elements of B which favor the event A are the common elements of A and B.
i.e. the sample points of A ∩ B.
Thus P(A/B) = Number of events favorable to A ∩ B ÷ Number of events favorable to B.
P(A/B) = n(A∩B)n(S)n(B)n(S)n(A∩B)n(S)n(B)n(S)
Thus P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B)
Properties of Conditional Probability
Here are some properties of conditional probability along with their proofs (derivations)
which we may need to use while solving the problems. All these properties depend on the
conditional probability formula (which is mentioned in the previous section).
Property 1
Let S be the sample space of an experiment and A be any event. Then P(S | A) = P(A | A) = 1.
Proof:
By the formula of conditional probability,
P(S | A) = P(S ∩ A) / P(A) = P(A) / P(A) = 1
P(A | A) = P(A ∩ A) / P(A) = P(A) / P(A) = 1
Hence property 1 is proved.
Property 2
Let S be the sample space of an experiment and A and B be any two events. Let E be any
other event such that P(E) ≠ 0. Then P((A ⋃ B) | E) = P(A | E) + P(B | E) - P((A ∩ B) | E).
Proof:
By the formula of conditional probability,
P((A ⋃ B) | E) = [P((A ⋃ B) ∩ E)] / P(E)
= [ P(A ∩ E) ⋃ P(B ∩ E) ] / P(E) (using a property of sets)
= [P(A ∩ E) + P(B ∩ E) - P(A ∩ B ∩ E)] / P(E) (using addition theorem of probability)
= P(A ∩ E) / P(E) + P(B ∩ E) / P(E) - P(A ∩ B ∩ E) / P(E)
= P(A | E) + P(B | E) - P((A ∩ B) | E) (By conditional probability formula)
Hence property 2 is proved.
Property 3
P(A' | B) = 1 - P(A | B), where A' is the complement of the set A.
Proof:
By Property 1, we have P(S | B) = 1.
We know that S = A ⋃ A'. Thus by the above property,
P( A ⋃ A' | B) = 1
Since A and A' are disjoint events,
P(A | B) + P(A' | B) = 1
P(A' | B) = 1 - P(A | B)
Hence property 3 is proved.
Dependent and Independent Events
The definition of independent and dependent events is connected to conditional probability.
Let us see the definitions of independent and dependent events along with their formulas.
Dependent Events
Dependent events, as the name suggests, are any two events in which the happening of one
event depends on the happening of the other event.
 If A depends on B, then the probability of A is P(A | B).
 If B depends on A, then the probability of B is P(B | A).
By the conditional probability formulas,
P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B) ⇒ P(A ∩ B) = P(A | B) · P(B)
P(B | A) = P(A ∩ B) / P(A) ⇒ P(A ∩ B) = P(B | A) · P(A)
Thus, two event A and B are said to be dependent events if one of the conditions is satisfied.
 P(A ∩ B) = P(A | B) · P(B) (or)
 P(A ∩ B) = P(B | A) · P(A)
Independent Events
Independent events, as the name suggests, are any two events in which the happening of one
event does not depend on the happening of the other event. i.e., if A and B are independent
then P(A | B) = P(A) and P(B | A) = P(B). Thus, to get the formula of independent events, we
just need to replace P(A | B) with P(A) (or P(B | A) with P(B)) in one of the above
(dependent events) formulas. Hence, two events are said to be independent if
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) · P(B)
This is also called as multiplication rule of probability.
Notes:
 The probability of A given B is called the conditional probability and it is calculated
using the formula P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B).
 The events that are part of conditional probability are dependent events. For example, if
we have P(A | B) anywhere in the problem, then it means that A and B are dependent.
 If two events A and B are independent, then P(A | B) = P(A) and P(B | A) = P(B).
 For any two events A and B, P(A ∩ B) = P(A) · P(B). This is called the multiplication
theorem of probability.

Examples of Conditional Probability

Example 1: The table below shows the occurrence of diabetes in 100 people. Let D and
N be the events where a randomly selected person "has diabetes" and "not overweight".
Then find P(D | N).
Diabetes (D) No Diabetes (D')

Not overweight (N) 5 45

Overweight (N') 17 33
Solution:
From the given table, P(N) = (5+45) / 100 = 50/100.
P(D ∩ N) = 5/100.
By the conditional probability formula,
P(D | N) = P(D ∩ N) / P(N)
= (5/100) / (50/100)
= 5/50
= 1/10
Answer: P(D | N) = 1/10.

Example 2: The probability that it will be sunny on Friday is 4/5. The probability that
an ice cream shop will sell ice creams on a sunny Friday is 2/3 and the probability that
the ice cream shop sells ice creams on a non-sunny Friday is 1/3. Then find the
probability that it will be sunny and the ice cream shop sells the ice creams on Friday.
Solution:
Let us assume that the probabilities for a Friday to be sunny and for the ice cream shop to
sell ice creams be S and I respectively. Then,
P(S) = 4/5.
P(I | S) = 2/3.
P(I | S') = 1/3.
We have to find P(S ∩ I).
We can see that S and I are dependent events. By using the dependent events' formula of
conditional probability,
P(S ∩ I) = P(I | S) · P(S) = (2/3) · (4/5) = 8/15.
Answer: The required probability = 8/15.
Example 3: If a fair die is rolled twice, observe the numbers that face up. Find the
conditional probability that the sum of the numbers is 7, given that the first number is
2.
Solution:
Let us determine the sample space of rolling a die twice. S = {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4),
(1,5), (1,6), (2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6), (3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6)(4,1),
(4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6), (5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4),
(6,5), (6,6) }
Considering events A and B as given: we have
A : the sum of the numbers is 7. Thus set A = {(1,6),(2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2),(6,1) }
B: the first number is 2. Thus set B = {(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)}
A ∩ B: {(2,5)}
By the conditional probability, we know that
P(A ) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B)
P(A ) = 136636136636
P(A ) = 1/6
Answer: The conditional probability that the sum of the numbers is 7, given that the
first number is 2 is 1/6
Bayes Theorem
Bayes theorem is a theorem in probability and statistics, named after the Reverend
Thomas Bayes, that helps in determining the probability of an event that is based on some
event that has already occurred. Bayes theorem has many applications such as bayesian
interference, in the healthcare sector - to determine the chances of developing health
problems with an increase in age and many others. Here, we will aim at understanding the use
of the Bayes theorem in determining the probability of events, its statement, formula, and
derivation with the help of examples.
What is Bayes Theorem?
Bayes theorem, in simple words, determines the conditional probability of an event A
given that event B has already occurred. Bayes theorem is also known as the Bayes Rule or
Bayes Law. It is a method to determine the probability of an event based on the occurrences
of prior events. It is used to calculate conditional probability. Bayes theorem calculates the
probability based on the hypothesis. Now, let us state the theorem and its proof. Bayes
theorem states that the conditional probability of an event A, given the occurrence of another
event B, is equal to the product of the likelihood of B, given A and the probability of A. It is
given as:
P(A|B)=P(B|A)P(A)P(B)P(A|B)=P(B|A)P(A)P(B)
Here, P(A) = how likely A happens(Prior knowledge)- The probability of a hypothesis is true
before any evidence is present.
P(B) = how likely B happens(Marginalization)- The probability of observing the evidence.
P(A/B) = how likely A happens given that B has happened(Posterior)-The probability of a
hypothesis is true given the evidence.
P(B/A) = how likely B happens given that A has happened(Likelihood)- The probability of
seeing the evidence if the hypothesis is true.

Bayes Theorem - Statement

The statement of Bayes Theorem is as follows: Let E1,E2,E3,...,EnE1,E2,E3,...,En be a
set of events associated with a sample space S, where all
events E1,E2,E3,...,EnE1,E2,E3,...,En have non-zero probability of occurrence and they form
a partition of S. Let A be any event which occurs with E1orE2orE3...orEnE1orE2orE3...orEn,
then according to Bayes Theorem,
P(Ei|A)=P(Ei)P(A|Ei)∑nk=1P(Ek)P(A|Ek),i=1,2,3,...,nP(Ei|A)=P(Ei)P(A|Ei)∑k=1nP(Ek)P(A
|Ek),i=1,2,3,...,n
 Here Eii ∩ Ejj = φ, where i ≠ j. (i.e) They are mutually exhaustive events
 The union of all the events of the partition, should give the sample space.
 0 ≤ P(Eii) ≤ 1
Bayes Theorem Formula
Bayes theorem formula exists for events and random variables. Bayes Theorem
formulas are derived from the definition of conditional probability. It can be derived for
events A and B, as well as continuous random variables X and Y. Let us first see the formula
for events.
Bayes Theorem Formula for Events
The formula for events derived from the definition of conditional probability is:
P(A|B)=P(B|A)P(A)/P(B),P(B)≠0

Difference Between Conditional Probability and Bayes Theorem

Conditional Probability Bayes Theorem

Bayes Theorem is derived using the

Conditional Probability is the
definition of conditional probability. The
probability of an event A that is based
Bayes theorem formula includes two
on the occurrence of another event B.
conditional probabilities.

Formula: P(A|B)=P(A∩B)P(B)P(A|B)= Formula: P(A|B)=P(B|A)P(A)P(B)P(A|B)=P(

P(A∩B)P(B) B|A)P(A)P(B)
Terms Related to Bayes Theorem
 Conditional Probability - Conditional Probability is the probability of an event A
based on the occurrence of another event B. It is denoted by P(A|B) and represents the
probability of A given that event B has already happened.
 Joint Probability - Joint probability measures the probability of two more events
occurring together and at the same time. For two events A and B, it is denoted
by P(A∩B)P(A∩B).
 Random Variables - Random variable is a real-valued variable whose possible
values are determined by a random experiment. The probability of such variables is
also called the experimental probability.
 Posterior Probability - Posterior probability is the probability of an event that is
calculated after all the information related to the event has been accounted for. It is
also known as conditional probability.
 Prior Probability - Prior probability is the probability of an event that is calculated
before considering the new information obtained. It is the probability of an outcome
that is determined based on current knowledge before the experiment is performed.
Notes
 Bayes theorem is used to determine conditional probability.
 When two events A and B are independent, P(A|B) = P(A) and P(B|A) = P(B)
 Conditional probability can be calculated using the Bayes theorem for continuous
random variables.
Bayes Theorem Examples
 Example 1: Amy has two bags. Bag I has 7 red and 2 blue balls and bag II has 5 red
and 9 blue balls. Amy draws a ball at random and it turns out to be red. Determine the
probability that the ball was from the bag I using the Bayes theorem.
Solution: Let X and Y be the events that the ball is from the bag I and bag II, respectively.
Assume A to be the event of drawing a red ball. We know that the probability of choosing a
bag for drawing a ball is 1/2, that is,
P(X) = P(Y) = 1/2
Since there are 7 red balls out of a total of 11 balls in the bag I, therefore, P(drawing a red
ball from the bag I) = P(A|X) = 7/11
Similarly, P(drawing a red ball from bag II) = P(A|Y) = 5/14
We need to determine the value of P(the ball drawn is from the bag I given that it is a red
ball), that is, P(X|A). To determine this we will use Bayes Theorem. Using Bayes theorem,
we have the following:
P(X|A)=P(A|X)P(X)P(A|X)P(X)+P(A|Y)P(Y)P(X|A)=P(A|X)P(X)P(A|X)P(X)+P(A|Y)P(Y)
= [((7/11)(1/2))/(7/11)(1/2)+(5/14)(1/2)]
= 0.64
Answer: Hence, the probability that the ball is drawn is from bag I is 0.64

Example 2: Assume that the chances of a person having a skin disease are 40%. Assuming
that skin creams and drinking enough water reduces the risk of skin disease by 30% and
prescription of a certain drug reduces its chance by 20%. At a time, a patient can choose any
one of the two options with equal probabilities. It is given that after picking one of the
options, the patient selected at random has the skin disease. Find the probability that the
patient picked the option of skin screams and drinking enough water using the Bayes
theorem.
Solution: Assume E1: The patient uses skin creams and drinks enough water; E2: The patient
uses the drug; A: The selected patient has the skin disease
P(E1) = P(E2) = 1/2
Using the probabilities known to us, we have
P(A|E1) = 0.4 × (1-0.3) = 0.28
P(A|E2) = 0.4 × (1-0.2) = 0.32
Using Bayes Theorem, the probability that the selected patient uses skin creams and drinks
enough water is given by,
P(E1|A)=P(A|E1)P(E1)P(A|E1)P(E1)+P(A|E2)P(E2)P(E1|A)=P(A|E1)P(E1)P(A|E1)P(E1)+P(
A|E2)P(E2)
= (0.28 × 0.5)/(0.28 × 0.5 + 0.32 × 0.5)
= 0.14/(0.14 + 0.16)
= 0.47
Answer: The probability that the patient picked the first option is 0.47

Example 3: A man is known to speak the truth 3/4 times. He draws a card and reports it
is king. Find the probability that it is actually a king.
Solution:
Let E be the event that the man reports that king is drawn from the pack of cards
A be the event that the king is drawn
B be the event that the king is not drawn.
Then we have P(A) = probability that king is drawn = 1/4
P(B) = probability that king is drawn = 3/4
P(E/A) = Probability that the man says the truth that king is drawn when actually king is
drawn = P(truth) = 3/4
P(E/B)= Probability that the man lies that king is drawn when actually king is drawn = P(lie)
= 1/4
Then according to Bayes theorem, the probability that it is actually a king = P(A/E)
=P(A)P(E|A)P(A)P(E|A)+P(B)P(E|B)P(A)P(E|A)P(A)P(E|A)+P(B)P(E|B)
= [1/4 × 3/4] ÷[(1/4 × 3/4) + (1/4 × 3/4)]
= 3/16 ÷12/16
= 3/16 × 16/12
=1/2 = 0.5
Answer: Thus the probability that the drawn card is actually a king = 0.5