Chapter 9

Inference About a
Population

1
9.1 Inference About a Population Mean When the
Population Standard Deviation is Unknown

Recall: By the central limit theorem, when s2 is known

x is normally distributed if:
• the sample is drawn from a normal population, or
• the population is not normal but the sample is
sufficiently large.
When s2 is unknown, we use s2 instead, and x has the
t-distribution

x −
Zt = s
n 2
 Pop dist:
Near Normal Z-dist
s known n  30
?
Pop dist:
n > 30
μ? Non-Normal Z-dist

n  30
tn-1-dist
Pop dist:
n > 30
s unknown Near Normal Z-dist
Pop dist:
?
Non-Normal
 x − Using the t-table
t=
s n

The Student- t distribution is mound-shaped, and

symmetrical around zero.

D of freedom = n2 > n1
D of freedom = n1

0
Example 1: The productivity of newly hired trainees is
studied. It is believed that trainees can process and
distribute more than 450 packages per hour within one
week of hiring.
Can we conclude that this belief is correct, if the mean
productivity observation of 50 trainees is 460.38 and the
standard deviation is 38.83.

5
Step 1:H0: = 450; H1: > 450
Step 2: a = 0.05
Step 3: n= 50, use tn-1 = t49
Step 4: Reject Region t  ta,n-1 @ t.05,50 = 1.676
Cf. 1.645 for the Z-distribution
Step 5:
x−
t=
s n 1.676
Critical value
460.38 − 450
= = 1.89
38.83 50
Step 6: Reject the null hypothesis
6
Confidence interval estimator of  when s 2 is unknown

s
x  ta 2 d.f . = n − 1
n
Example 2: An investor is trying to estimate the return
on investment in companies that won quality awards
last year. A random sample of 83 such companies is
selected, yields 2
x = 15.02 s = 68.98
s = 68.98 = 8.31

Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean

return. 7
 x = 15.02 s 2 = 68.98
s = 68.98 = 8.31

s 8.31
x  t a 2,n−1 @ 15.02  1.990 = 13.205,16.835
n 83

t.025,82@ t.025,80
Checking the required conditions:
The Student t distribution is robust, which means that if
the population is non-normal, the results of the t-test
and confidence interval estimate are still valid provided
that the population is “not extremely non-normal”.

14 30
12 25
10
20
8
6 15
4 10
2 5
0 0
400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575 More -4 2 8 14 22 30 More

9
Example 4 Assume the content of a can of Bubbly cola
is Normally distributed. Design a test to see whether its
manufacturer adequately fills their 1-liter (i.e., 1000 mls)
bottles.
H0 : μ = 1, 000mls (adequately)
HA: μ < 1, 000mls (1-side test) (inadequately)

a =.10 (This might be just a class-room project)

n = 25 (small sample size) -> Use the t24 -distribution

Reject H0 at a = .10
Reject region: T < −1.32
−1.32
Critical value
10
11.2 Inference About a Population Variance
This statistic is (n − 1) s 2
2
s
If the population is normally distributed, it has a Chi-
squared distribution, with df = n-1:  n2−1
The Chi-squared distribution
0.1
0.08
0.06 DF = 5
0.04 DF=10
0.02
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 11
Testing the population variance – Left hand tail test
Example 3: A container-filling machine is considered to
fill 1 liter containers consistently if the variance of the
filling is less than 1 cc (.001 liter). A random sample of
25 1-liter fills was taken, and s2=.6333. Do these data
support the belief that the variance is less than 1cc at
5% significance level?

12
Step 1:H0:s2 = 1; H1:s2 < 1
Step 2: a = 0.05
 2
Step 3: n= 25, use n −1 =  2
24

Step 4: Reject Region 12−a ,n −1 = .295, 24 = 13.85

Χ224
Step 5:
(n − 1) s 2 .95
 =
2

s 2 13.85
(25 − 1)(.6333) Critical value
= = 15.20
1
Step 6: Do not reject the null hypothesis 13
Testing the population variance –
Right hand tail test; Two tail test;

A right hand tail test: A two tail test

H0: s2 = value H0: s2 = value
H1: s2 > value H1: s2  value

Rejection region Rejection region:

2 2 2 2 2 2
  a, n−1   1−a 2, n−1 or    a 2, n−1

14
 Estimating the population variance
From the following probability statement
P(21-a/2 < 2 < 2a/2) = 1-a
we have (by substituting 2 = [(n - 1)s2]/s2.)

2 2
(n − 1)s 2 (n − 1)s
s 
 2a / 2 12−a / 2

This is the confidence interval for s2 with 1-a %

confidence level. 15
Example 4: Estimate the variance of fills in example 3
with 99% confidence.

(n − 1) s 2 (n − 1) s 2
s2 
a2 / 2 12−a / 2
? ?
s 
2

45.5585 9.88623

16
 11.4 Inference About a Population Proportion
When the population consists of nominal or categorical
data, the only inference we can make is about the
proportion of occurrence of a certain value.

17
The statistic used when making inference about ‘p’
is:

x
pˆ = where
n
x − the number of successes.
n − sample size.

Under certain conditions, [np > 5 and n(1-p) > 5],

p̂ is approximately normally distributed, with
 = p and s2 = p(1 - p)/n. 18
Test statistic for p

p̂ − p
Z=
p(1 − p) / n
where np  5 and n(1 − p)  5

Interval estimator for p (1-a confidence level)

p̂  z a / 2 p̂(1 − p̂) / n
provided np̂  5 and n(1 − p̂)  5
19
Example 11.5 (Predicting the winner in election day):
Voters are asked by a certain network to participate in
an exit poll in order to predict the winner on election
day. Based on the data presented in Xm12.5.xls (where
1=Democrat, and 2=Republican), can the network
conclude that the republican candidate will win the state
college vote?

20
Step 1: H0: p = .5; H1: p > .5
Step 2: a = 0.05
Step 3: n= 765, use the Z-dist.
Step 4: Reject Region
Step 5: Z

p− p
z=
p(1 − p) / n 1.645
.532 − .5 Critical value
= = 1.77
.5(1 − .5) / 765
Step 6: Reject the null hypothesis 21
Estimating the Proportion
Example (marketing application): In a survey of 2000 TV
viewers at 11.40 p.m. on a certain night, 226 indicated
they watched “The Tonight Show”. Estimate the number
of TVs tuned to the Tonight Show in a typical night, if
there are 100 million potential television sets. Use 95%
confidence level.

pˆ  za / 2 pˆ (1 − pˆ ) / n
= .113  1.96 .113(.887) / 2000
= .113  .014 1-.113 = .887
226/2000 = .113 22
 Flowchart of Techniques

Describe a Population

Data Type?

Interval Nominal

Type of descriptive measurement? z test &

estimator of p

Central Location Variability

t test & X2 Χ2 test &

estimator of u. estimator of d

12.23