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    2017-10-26 in Class Questions

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    sharan raj
    The document describes a Bayesian network modeling the problem of drawing one of three coins with different probabilities of coming up heads and flipping it three times. It then asks: 1) To draw the Bayesian network for this setup and define the relevant conditional probability tables. 2) To calculate which coin is most likely to have been drawn if the flips come up HHT. It then discusses extensions to probit distributions and performing variable elimination on a query involving evidence of two variables being true in another Bayesian network. It asks about the complexity of algorithms on different network structures.

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    2017-10-26 in Class Questions

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    sharan raj
    37 views8 pages
    The document describes a Bayesian network modeling the problem of drawing one of three coins with different probabilities of coming up heads and flipping it three times. It then asks: 1) To draw the Bayesian network for this setup and define the relevant conditional probability tables. 2) To calculate which coin is most likely to have been drawn if the flips come up HHT. It then discusses extensions to probit distributions and performing variable elimination on a query involving evidence of two variables being true in another Bayesian network. It asks about the complexity of algorithms on different network structures.

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    The document describes a Bayesian network modeling the problem of drawing one of three coins with different probabilities of coming up heads and flipping it three times. It then asks: 1) To draw the Bayesian network for this setup and define the relevant conditional probability tables. 2) To calculate which coin is most likely to have been drawn if the flips come up HHT. It then discusses extensions to probit distributions and performing variable elimination on a query involving evidence of two variables being true in another Bayesian network. It asks about the complexity of algorithms on different network structures.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    37 views8 pages

    2017-10-26 in Class Questions

    Uploaded by

    sharan raj
    The document describes a Bayesian network modeling the problem of drawing one of three coins with different probabilities of coming up heads and flipping it three times. It then asks: 1) To draw the Bayesian network for this setup and define the relevant conditional probability tables. 2) To calculate which coin is most likely to have been drawn if the flips come up HHT. It then discusses extensions to probit distributions and performing variable elimination on a query involving evidence of two variables being true in another Bayesian network. It asks about the complexity of algorithms on different network structures.

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    You are on page 1of 8

    • 14.

    1 (Thomas Nakagawa) Suppose we have a bag of three biased


    coins a, b and c, which have probability of coming up heads of 20%,
    60% and 80% respectively. We draw one of the three coins randomly
    and flip it three times to get outcomes X1, X2 and X3.

    • Draw a Bayesian network corresponding to this setup and define


    the relevant CPTs.

    • Calculate which coin is most likely to have been drawn if the flips
    come up HHT.
    • 14.8 (Lijun (Julie) Zhu) Consider the network for car diagnosis.
    • Extend the network with boolean variables for IcyWeather and StarterMotor.
    • Give reasonable CPTs for all the nodes.
    • How many independent numbers do your network’s tables contain? In contrast,
    how many independent numbers are contained in the joint probability distribution
    Example:
    for eight boolean variables, Car
    assuming no diagnosis
    known conditional independencies?
    • The conditional distribution for Starts could be described as a noisy-AND
    Initial evidence: car won’t start
    distribution. Define this family in general and relate it to the noisy-OR distribution.
    Testable variables (green), “broken, so fix it” variables (orange)
    Hidden variables (gray) ensure sparse structure, reduce parameters

    battery age alternator fanbelt


    broken broken

    battery no charging
    dead

    battery battery fuel line starter


    flat no oil no gas blocked broken
    meter

    car won’t
    lights oil light gas gauge start dipstick

    Chapter 14.1–3 19
    • 14.10 (Farzin Ahmed) The probit distribution describes the probability
    distribution for a Boolean child given a single continuous parent.

    • How might the definition be extended to cover multiple continuous


    parents?

    • How might it be extended to handle a multi-valued child variable?


    consider both cases where the child’s values are ordered (e.g.
    selecting a gear while driving) and cases where they are unordered
    (as in selecting bus/train/car to get to work). Hint: consider ways to
    divide the possible values into two sets, to mimic a Boolean child.
    • 14.15 (Robin Qumsieh)

    • Perform variable elimination for the query P(Burglary | JohnCalls =


    true, MaryCalls = true).

    • Count the number of arithmetic operations performed, and compare


    to the number performed by the enumeration algorithm.

    • Suppose a network has the form of a chain: A sequence of Boolean


    variables X1..XN where Parents(Xi) = {X(i-1)}. What is the
    complexity of computing P(X1 | XN = true) using enumeration?
    Variable elimination?

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