Bav Theory
Bav Theory
Bav Theory
Director's Report
MDA
Terminal Value
It represents all future cash flows in an asset valuation model. This allows
models to reflect returns that will occur so far in the future that they are nearly
impossible to forecast. It is the present value at a future point in time of all
future cash flows when we expect stable growth rate forever. It is most often
used in multi-stage discounted cash flow analysis, and allows for the limitation
of cash flow projections to a several-year period.
Stable Growth Rate
It is the maximum rate of growth that a firm can sustain without having to
expand financial leverage or look for outside financing. Small changes in the
stable growth rate can change the terminal value significantly and the effect gets
larger as the growth rate approaches the discount rate used in the
estimation. The fact that a stable growth rate is constant forever, however, puts
strong constraints on how high it can be. Since no firm can grow forever at a
rate higher than the growth rate of the economy in which it operates, the
constant growth rate cannot be greater than the overall growth rate of the
economy. A company's SGR is the product of its return on equity (ROE) and
the percentage of its profits that is plowed back into the firm. SGR is calculated
as: ROE x (1 - dividend-pay-out ratio), which is equal to the product of ROE
and the retention ratio.
EVA
Economic value added (EVA) is a measure of a company's performance based
on the residual wealth calculated by deducting its cost of capital from its
operating profit, adjusted for taxes on a cash basis. EVA can also be referred to
as economic profit, as it attempts to capture the true economic profit of a
company. This measure was devised by management consulting firm Stern
Value Management,
Risk Free Rate
The risk-free rate of return is the theoretical return of an investment with zero
risk. The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an
absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time.
In theory, the risk-free rate is the minimum return an investor expects for any
investment because he will not accept additional risk unless the potential rate of
return is greater than the risk-free rate. The interest rate on zero-
coupon government securities, such as Treasury bills, notes and bonds in the
US, is generally treated as a proxy for the risk-free rate. It is assumed that
governments have zero default risk because they can print money to pay back
their debt obligation whenever they want. (Indian government 10-year
Bond rate) (No default risk, no reinvestment risk)
Intrinsic Value
Intrinsic value is the perceived or calculated value of a company, including
tangible and intangible factors, using fundamental analysis. Also called the true
value, the intrinsic value may or may not be the same as the current market
value. Intrinsic value can be calculated by value investors using fundamental
analysis to look at both the qualitative (business model, governance and target
market factors) and quantitative (ratios and financial statement analysis) aspects
of a business. This calculated value is then compared with the market value to
determine whether the business or asset is over- or undervalued.
The discounted cash flow (DCF) model is one commonly used valuation
method to determine a company's intrinsic value. The discounted cash flow
model uses a company's free cash flow and weighted average cost of
capital (WACC), which accounts for the time value of money, and then
discounts all its future cash flow back to the present day.
The inputs into a direct cash forecasting process are typically upcoming
payments and receipts organised into units of time such as a day, week or
month. These units of time are then aggregated to the length of time that
the forecast is set to cover. The time frame for when a direct method of
cash forecasting is useful is generally less than 90 days, however it may
stretch to one year.
Indirect Cash Forecasting: An indirect cash forecast is one that is derived
from a various projected income statements and balance sheets, generally
done as part of the planning and budgeting processes. There are three
methods of deriving an indirect cash forecast:
Adjusted Net Income (ANI): This is in effect a projected cash flow statement, it
is derived from operating income, either EBIT or EBITA, changes on the
balance sheet are then applied, such as Accounts Payable (AP), Accounts
Receivable (AR) and inventories to forecast cash flow.
Proforma Balance Sheet (PBS): The PBS method looks at the projected balance
sheet cash account at a future point in time. If all other balance sheet accounts
have been projected correctly, cash will be too.
Accrual Reversal Method (ARM): The ARM is hybrid of the ANI and direct
methods and uses statistical analysis to reverse large accruals and calculate the
cash movements for individual periods.
WACC
All sources of capital, including common stock, preferred stock, bonds and any
other long-term debt, are included in a WACC calculation. A firm’s WACC
increases as the beta and rate of return on equity increase, because an increase in
WACC denotes a decrease in valuation and an increase in risk.
Other Topics
Contingent Liability: A contingent liability is a potential liability that may
occur depending on the outcome of an uncertain future event. A contingent
liability is recorded in the accounting records if the contingency is probable and
the amount of the liability can be reasonably estimated.
Replacement Cost: A replacement cost is the cost to replace an asset of a
company at the same or equal value, where the asset to be replaced could be a
building, investment securities, accounts receivable or liens. The replacement
cost can change, depending on changes in market value of the asset and any
other costs required to prepare the asset for use. Accountants use depreciation to
expense the cost of the asset over its useful life.
Replacing an asset can be an expensive decision, and companies analyse the net
present value (NPV) of the future cash inflows and outflows to make purchasing
decisions. Once an asset is purchased, the company determines a useful life for
the asset and depreciates the asset's cost over the useful life.