Daily Bullion Physical Market Report Date: 31st March 2023

Daily India Spot Market Rates Gold and Silver 999 Watch
Description Purity AM PM Date GOLD* SILVER*
Gold 999 59106 59335
29th March 2023 59335 70000
Gold 995 58869 59097
Gold 916 54141 54351 28th March 2023 58965 69500

Gold 750 44330 44501

27th March 2023 58892 69369
Gold 585 34577 34771
24th March 2023 59653 69756
Silver 999 69620 70000
*Rate as exclusive of GST as of 29th March 2023 Gold is Rs/10 Gm & Silver in Rs/Kg The above rates are IBJA PM Rates; *Rates are exclusive of GST

COMEX Futures Watch ETF Holdings as on Previous Close

Description Contract Close Change %Chg ETFs Long Short

Gold($/oz) JUN 23 1997.70 13.20 0.67 SPDR Gold 929.47 1.74

Silver($/oz) MAY 23 23.99 0.52 2.23 iShares Silver 14,327.31 17.15

Gold and Silver Fix Bullion Futures DGCX Gold Ratio

Description LTP Description Contract LTP Description LTP
Gold London AM Fix($/oz) 1968.10 Gold($/oz) APR. 23 1990.3
Gold Silver Ratio 83.28
Gold London PM Fix($/oz) 1965.80 Gold Quanto APR. 23 59915

23.71 Silver($/oz) MAY. 23 24.02 Gold Crude Ratio 26.86

Silver London Fix($/oz)

Weekly CFTC Positions MCX Indices

Long Short Net Index Close Net Change % Chg
Gold($/oz) 146318 39363 106955
MCX iCOMDEX
16113.18 94.23 0.58 %
Silver 31234 30348 886 Bullion

Macro-Economic Indicators

Time Country Event Forecast Previous Impact

31st March 06:00 PM United States Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.4 % 0.6 % High
31st March 07:15 PM United States Chicago PMI 43.1 43.6 Medium
31st March 07:30 PM United States Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 63.1 63.4 Medium
31st March 08:30 PM Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks - - Medium
Nirmal Bang Securities - Daily Bullion News and Summary
 Gold advanced with a softer dollar as traders assessed interest-rate path following fresh US jobs data and Federal Reserve officials’ reiteration to fight inflation.
Initial unemployment claims in the US increased by 7,000 to 198,000 in the week ended March 25, Labor Department data showed Thursday, a slight softening in
what has been a robust labor market. But bullion is still up more than 8% this month, bolstered by the banking-industry turmoil and concerns that the US economy
may tip into recession. Meanwhile Boston Fed President Susan Collins said tightening was needed. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the Fed can raise
rates more if inflation risks persist.

 Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said he remains undecided on how Fed officials should adjust interest rates at the central bank’s next
meeting, citing uncertainty in inflation and consumer demand as well as additional fallout from the banking crisis. “I could imagine many different outcomes based
on whether you can convince yourself that inflation is starting to settle, or you convince yourself it’s not — and you convince yourself that this was a blip that is sort
of largely behind us, or you’re convinced that this is a continuing situation,” he said at a roundtable with reporters at the University of Richmond. “It’s pretty hard to
know here on March 30.” Barkin, who is not a voting member on the Fed’s policy-setting committee this year, said it will be important for officials to remain nimble.
The Richmond Fed president told the Virginia Council of CEOs that he is poised to continue fighting inflation, and supported Fed officials’ decision to raise interest
rates by a quarter percentage point at their meeting in March, to 4.75% to 5%. While he considered a range of options prior to that meeting, he told reporters, the
collapse of Credit Suisse Group AG took a 50 basis-point hike off the table. Barkin said he sees the possible range of outcomes going forward “as pretty wide,” and
said the Fed could keep pushing rates higher if inflation remains elevated. “If inflation persists, we can react by raising rates further,” he said in prepared remarks. “It
was only a few weeks ago that some were calling for a 50 basis-point increase.” “If I am wrong about the pricing dynamics at play, or about credit conditions, then
we can respond appropriately,” he added. Barkin said deposit flows appear relatively stable, after a handful of bank collapses triggered financial turmoil. Silicon
Valley Bank collapsed March 10 after a massive deposit run, while Signature Bank closed two days later.

 Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said the banking system is sound and more interest-rate increases are needed to bring down inflation.
“Inflation remains too high, and recent indicators reinforce my view that there is more work to do, to bring inflation down to the 2% target associated with price
stability,” Collins said Thursday in remarks at conference hosted by the National Association for Business Economics in Washington. Collins’s remarks echo those
made by other Fed officials last week, when policymakers raised interest rates by a quarter point and said some additional tightening may be warranted. Chair
Jerome Powell had earlier opened the door to moving at a faster pace, but such expectations retreated in the aftermath of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Boston
Fed President Collins says there is “more work to do” on bringing down US inflation to the central bank’s 2% target. The Boston Fed chief, who doesn’t vote on
monetary policy decisions this year, said she views quarter-point increases as the “appropriate” pace needed as officials bring rates to a level that is sufficiently
restrictive to tame inflation. Data out Friday is expected to show price pressures ran at a pace more than double the Fed’s target in February, according to the central
bank’s preferred measure.

 The Brazilian government will require electronic invoices for gold trading starting July 3, in a long-awaited step to curb illegal transactions of the precious metal.
“This is a very important step to avoid financial support for illegal gold mining activities in regions such as the Amazon,” Raul Jungmann, who heads Brazilian mining
institute Ibram, said in a statement. Under current rules, transactions can be registered via self-issued certificates, while security firms are exempt from
accountability for irregularities and purchases are made based on the presumption of good faith. A surge in illegal mining in Brazil has spurred non-governmental
organizations and large mining companies into action. Efforts include creating a traceability system and recruiting the Central Bank, the Federal Police and the
Internal Revenue Service. Securities regulator CVM is investigating complaints against the five largest dealers that buy and export gold from Amazon mines. About
half of Brazil’s gold production commercialized between 2015 and 2020 had serious evidence of illegality, according to sustainability organization Instituto Escolhas,
with a handful of dealers accounting for a third of all gold identified. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has vowed to combat irregular mining.

 Exchange-traded funds added 47,476 troy ounces of gold to their holdings in the last trading session, bringing this year's net sales to 610,141 ounces, according to
data compiled by Bloomberg. The purchases were equivalent to $93.3 million at yesterday's spot price. Total gold held by ETFs fell 0.7 percent this year to 93.1
million ounces, the highest level since Jan. 31. Gold advanced 7.7 percent this year to $1,964.70 an ounce and fell by 0.4 percent in the latest session. State Street's
SPDR Gold Shares, the biggest precious-metals ETF, boosted its holdings by 55,770 ounces in the last session. The fund's total of 29.9 million ounces has a market
value of $58.7 billion. ETFs also added 1.49 million troy ounces of silver to their holdings in the last trading session, bringing this year's net sales to 6.21 million
ounces. This was the biggest one-day increase since Feb. 27.

 Fundamental Outlook: Gold and silver prices are trading mix today on international bourses. We expect precious metals prices on Indian bourses to
trade range-bound to slightly higher for the day. We recommend buy on dips in gold and silver in intra-day trading sessions, as traders assessed the path
for interest rates. Fresh US jobs data showed a slight softening in what has been a robust labor market, while Federal Reserve officials suggested more
monetary tightening was necessary, even after the collapse of three US banks earlier this month.

Key Market Levels for the Day

Time Month S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

Gold – COMEX April 1890 1920 1940 1970 1990 2010

Silver – COMEX May 22.50 22.65 22.80 23.20 23.35 23.50

Gold – MCX April 59200 59450 59700 60000 60300 60500

Silver – MCX May 70250 70800 71400 72100 72700 73200

Nirmal Bang Securities - Daily Currency Market Update
Dollar Index Market Summary and News
 China’s economic recovery gathered pace in March, with manufacturing continuing to expand and
LTP/Close Change % Change services activity and construction picking up strongly. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index
eased to 51.9 from 52.6 in February, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday, but remained above
102.14 -0.50 -0.48 the 50 mark that signals expansion from the previous month. A non-manufacturing gauge of activity in
both the services and construction sectors surged to 58.2 in March, the highest level since May 2011.
The construction sub-index reached the highest level since records began in 2012. The PMIs are the
Bond Yield first official indicators of economic activity for the month, showing the recovery is strengthening after
stringent pandemic restrictions were dropped and Covid infection waves eased. Economists expect a
10 YR Bonds LTP Change rebound in consumer spending and stronger government spending on infrastructure to help drive up
growth in the world’s second-largest economy to 5.3% this year from just 3% in 2022. Stocks in China
and Hong Kong rose amid broad gains in Asia. A gauge of Chinese shares listed in the financial hub
United States 3.5488 -0.0151 jumped more than 2%, leading the regional advance. The currency edged higher, with the offshore
yuan jumping 0.4% to 6.8470 per dollar. “The PMI indicates China’s economic recovery is on track,”
Europe 2.3690 0.0450 said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. “The strong momentum will likely
continue in the coming months, as the new order index for the service sector continued to rise.” The
Japan 0.3340 0.0100 NBS said services activity picked up “as the effects of local governments measures to promote
consumption kicked in” and households showed willingness to spend and travel. Warmer weather also
India 7.2850 -0.0270 helped to get construction projects going across the country, it said.

 The dollar is weaker against all of its G-10 peers on quarter-end flows and expectations the Fed
Emerging Market Currency rate- hike cycle may be nearing an end. The euro rose after German inflation data reinforced forecasts
that the European Central Bank will need to tighten. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as
0.4%, approaching the March low of 1226.57. The greenback was weaker against G-10 peers; the peso
Currency LTP Change reversed a gain after the central bank hiked 25 basis points, as expected. Treasury 2-year yields were
little changed near 4.10%. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said he remains undecided on how
Brazil Real 5.0948 -0.0411 Fed officials should adjust interest rates at the central bank’s next meeting. Minneapolis Fed President
Neel Kashkari said it was premature to judge what impact the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will have
South Korea Won 1299.05 -3.8500 on the economy, but the Fed also needs to focus on lowering inflation. Boston Fed President Susan
Collins said some more tightening is needed and that the banks are strong. “The USD is likely to stay
Russia Rubble under pressure if the banking sector avoids further acute shocks. We see the combination of economic
77.2824 0.0113 headwinds, flattening of the policy rates path concentrated in the US, and reduced risk premia as USD
negatives,” writes Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX research at Standard Chartered Bank.
Chinese Yuan 6.8706 -0.0189 EUR/USD rose as much 0.8% at 1.0926 amid German bund weakness after a report showed inflation in
the country rose 0.8% M/M in March, exceeding the median estimate of a 0.7% increase; the common
Vietnam Dong 23480 -15 currency was further supported by gains in European shares as concerns about the health of EU
banking industry faded. Real money, corporate and cross-related buying lifted the common currency;
Mexican Peso 18.093 0.0044 it rose to its highest level since August 2021 against the Australian dollar. Call turnover outpaced puts
3 to 2 though futures accounts bought 1.05 May puts. EUR/SEK holds modest gain after a bout of
interbank dollar-krona turnover. USD/JPY is down 0.3% at 132.48 as US regional bank shares are
pressured; one-month vols rise to incorporate a possible policy move at the next Bank of Japan
NSE Currency Market Watch meeting. Risk reversals on the tenor move to 2% in favor of puts. GBP/USD rises 0.5% to 1.2371 in
quarter-end corporate and real money flows; traders see offers above 1.2400 slowing the ascent;
EUR/GBP holds above its 100-DMA of 0.8781. USD/CAD slipped 0.3% to 1.3523 amid share gains and
Currency LTP Change higher commodity prices though downward momentum slows as it nears its lower 20-day Bollinger
and the 1.35 psychological level.
NDF 82.28 -0.03
 The Mexican peso erased earlier gains after Banxico raised its key rate by a quarter point, as
USDINR 82.43 0.1075 expected, with its accompanying statement reinforcing bets that the hiking cycle may have reached a
peak. Mexico slowed the pace of interest rate increases Thursday as it raised borrowing costs to
JPYINR 62.7575 -0.295 11.25%. Colombia’s central bank also continued its steepest-ever interest rate hike cycle, despite signs
of a sharp economic slowdown, as it battles the country’s fastest inflation in nearly a quarter century.
GBPINR 101.76 0.395 Mexico’s peso is now edging lower against the dollar. Colombia’s peso dropped 0.2%, with trading
stopping just before the rate decision was announced. Chile and Brazil’s currencies gained. Emerging-
EURINR 89.56 0.355 market stocks rose for a third day, on track for their second consecutive quarter with positive returns,
as a weaker dollar and falling US Treasury yields boost the appeal of riskier assets. Brazilian stocks
USDJPY 131.4 0.84 climbed as much as 2.25% to a two-week high as a new fiscal framework was unveiled. Ecuador’s
bonds slid after the Constitutional Court allowed congress to push ahead with an impeachment trial
GBPUSD 1.2344 0.0023 for President Guillermo Lasso. The South African rand is up 3% against the dollar in March, which
would be its biggest monthly gain since November. Investors now expect US rates to sit around 4.3%
EURUSD 1.0826 -0.0038 by the end of the year, about 70 basis points lower than the current level. Turkish stocks have fallen
10% in this quarter, heading for the biggest decline since the first quarter of 2020.

Key Market Levels for the Day

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

USDINR Spot 81.8075 81.9075 82.0150 82.1525 82.2525 82.4050

Nirmal Bang Securities - Bullion Technical Market Update

Gold Market Update

Market View
Open 59687
High 59968
Low 59460
Close 59895
Value Change 182
% Change 0.3
Spread Near-Next 0
Volume (Lots) 4106
Open Interest 18537
Change in OI (%) 2.32%

Gold - Outlook for the Day

Gold prices has found a support around $ 1950-55 zone and likely to sustain above the
same. Prices can see some pullback till $ 1980-2000 for the day. Try to buy on dips.

BUY GOLD JUNE (MCX) AT 59700 SL 59450 TARGET 60000/60200

Silver Market Update

Market View

Open 70999
High 72100
Low 70912
Close 71774
Value Change 997
% Change 1.41
Spread Near-Next 924
Volume (Lots) 13736
Open Interest 14914
Change in OI (%) 3.07%

Silver - Outlook for the Day

Silver supportive around $ 23.00-22.90; we are recommending going long around $ 23.10-
23.00, for the target of $ 23.40-23.50 for the day.

BUY SILVER MAY (MCX) AT 71400 SL 70800 TARGET 72100/72500

Nirmal Bang Securities - Currency Technical Market Update

USDINR Market Update

Market View

Open 82.3525
High 82.4925
Low 82.335
Close 82.43
Value Change 0.1075
% Change 0.13
Spread Near-Next 0
Volume (Lots) 2224980
Open Interest 3779806
Change in OI (%) 0.00%

USDINR - Outlook for the Day

The 20-day exponential moving average was sustained today by the USDINR April futures
closing price. The pair has formed a small green candle. The pair has closed in below the
short-term moving averages, indicating weakness. The MACD has given crossover above
zero-line. The momentum indicator RSI is breaks the 50 on the daily chart shows negative
for the pair. We are anticipating USDINR April futures to trade in the range of 82.10–82.40
for today.

Key Market Levels for the Day

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

USDINR April 82.0250 82.2025 82.3050 82.4575 82.5525 82.6250

Nirmal Bang Securities – Commodity Research Team

Name Designation Email

Kunal Shah Head of Research kunal.shah@nirmalbang.com

Devidas Rajadhikary AVP Commodity Research devidas.rajadhikary@nirmalbang.com

Harshal Mehta AVP Commodity Research harshal.mehta@nirmalbang.com

Ravi D’souza Sr. Research Analyst ravi.dsouza@nirmalbang.com

Smit Bhayani Research Associate smit.bhayani@nirmalbang.com

Utkarsh Dubey Currency Research Associate Utkarsh.dubey@nirmalbang.com

This Document has been prepared by Nirmal Bang Securities Pvt. Ltd. The
information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Nirmal Bang
Securities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to
be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This
document, at best, represents Nirmal Bang Securities Research opinion and is
meant for general information only. Nirmal Bang Securities Research, its directors,
officers or employees shall not in any way be responsible for the contents stated
herein. Nirmal Bang Securities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities
that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This
document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any
securities. Nirmal Bang Securities Research, its affiliates and their employees may
from time to time hold positions in securities referred to herein. Nirmal Bang
Securities Research or its affiliates may from time to time solicit from or perform
investment banking or other services for any company mentioned in this
document.

Address: Nirmal Bang Securities Pvt. Ltd., B2, 301 / 302, 3rd Floor, Marathon Innova,
Opp. Peninsula Corporate Park, Ganpatrao Kadam Marg,
Lower Parel (W), Mumbai - 400 013, India