Motilal Oswall (Q1 Fy 24)
Motilal Oswall (Q1 Fy 24)
Motilal Oswall (Q1 Fy 24)
Avenue Supermarts
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
62,849 18,635 CMP: INR3,547 TP: INR4,200 (+18%) Upgrade to Buy
Well placed for earnings revival
Motilal Oswal values your support in
the Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2023 for DMART has grown its revenues and earnings at a robust CAGR of 23% and 24% over the
India Research, Sales, Corporate
last five years. After growing the topline at this scorching pace and achieving a turnover
Access and Trading team.
We request your ballot. of INR 430b, it has just about scratched the surface in our view. We believe it has a long
runway for growth as the modern retail space is still in its infancy in India. Weak SSSG has
weighed on DMART’s stock price performance in the recent past. In this report, we
highlight key catalysts that can accelerate the growth from hereon and discuss our thesis
for Rating upgrade.
Strong footprint addition in last few years
While most retailers found it difficult to expand their footprint in the last three
years due to Covid, DMART, despite operating on an ownership model, clocked a
Stock Info
Bloomberg DMART IN strong 20% CAGR in area addition over FY20-23, translating into 19% revenue
Equity Shares (m) 648 growth. However, SSSG was weak due to: 1) the addition of big stores in the last
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 2304.9 / 27.9 few years (average store size up 23% over FY19-23), which pulled down store
52-Week Range (INR) 4606 / 3293 productivity; and 2) weak discretionary demand in the value category, which
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -6/-12/-19 reduced its share to 23% from 27% in FY20., However, we believe SSSG is set to
12M Avg Val (INR M) 1400
recover in FY24, due to the following factors: 1) easing general inflation, along with
Free float (%) 25.1
RM cost reduction, may help to revive discretionary demand; 2) a change in the
Financials Snapshot (INR b) company’s store strategy — earlier smaller 30-35k sqft stores would mature in 3-4
Y/E March FY23 FY24E FY25E
years and see their SSSG peak out, so the company has started to open larger
Sales 428 536 689
EBITDA
stores since FY19/20, which continue to contribute even after completing their 3-4
36 47 63
Adj. PAT 24 29 40 year cycles. Those stores are now in the base and will start contributing to store
EBITDA Margin (%) 8 9 9 productivity, with further room to grow footfalls.
Adj. EPS (INR) 37 45 61 Good cost control in weak SSSG environment
EPS Gr. (%) 59 23 35 Despite weak SSSG, DMART has managed to protect its EBITDA margin, unlike
BV/Sh. (INR) 258 305 368
other retailers, which have seen a 200-450bp margin hit. DMART is one of the few
Ratios
Net D:E 0 0 0 retailers to have retained cost efficiencies achieved during the Covid period and
RoE (%) 16 17 19 benefited from the economies of larger stores. Gross margin was affected by the
RoCE (%) 16 16 19 softness in the margin-accretive discretionary category, offsetting price inflation
Payout (%) 0 0 0 gains. Yet, it has managed to achieve EBITDA margin closer to the normal pre-Covid
Valuations
level. This is evident from its SG&A and employee costs, which declined 2% per sqft
P/E (x) 96 78 58
EV/EBITDA (x) 63 49 36
over FY20-23 to INR2,264 in FY23, cushioning the 2% drop in revenue productivity.
EV/Sales (X) 5 4 3 When SSSG recovers, strong cost control could help DMART improve its margin by
Div. Yield (%) 0 0 0 30-50bp or pass on the gains to drive higher offtake.
FCF Yield (%) 0 0 1
Competitive position intact
Despite the recent aggressiveness of online/quick commerce platforms, DMART
remains one of the most competitive grocery retailers, along with JioMart (Reliance
Fresh), with 6% lower pricing (vs. average basket value of nine players) consistently
over the last 12 months. As per our monthly grocery price monitor, in May’23,
DMART at INR8,500 (basket value) was marginally above JioMart but was 8%
cheaper than the pure-play online retailers (such as Zepto, Dunzo, Big Basket, etc.)
highlighting its cost competiveness against the aggressive online players. As per our
price monitor, four times in the last 12 months, it had the cheapest basket value
with the widest breadth of the lowest price products. This looks commendable, as
DMART has protected its margins, yet maintaining its competitive edge.
Aliasgar Shakir - Research Analyst (Aliasgar.Shakir@motilaloswal.com)
Research Analyst: Tanmay Gupta (Tanmay.Gupta@motilaloswal.com) | Harsh Gokalgandhi (Harsh.Gokalgandhi@motilaloswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Avenue Supermarts
Shareholding pattern (%) Online business – not burning cash but well prepared
As On Mar-23 Dec-22 Mar-22 DMart Ready has expanded its footprint to 22 cities with store metrics that are close
Promoter 74.9 75.0 75.0 to breakeven. It operates on the next-day delivery model, unlike other quick-service
DII 7.5 7.1 6.8 e-grocers, which have lower fill rates and delivery size, mostly catering to daily
FII 8.2 8.6 8.8
needs instead of monthly grocery orders. As per Redseer, the online industry
Others 9.4 9.3 9.4
reached a sizeable USD8b scale in 2022 and is expected to see a 33% CAGR over
FII Includes depository receipts
2022-2025 (reaching USD19b by 2025), but most online players have found it
Stock Performance (1-year)
difficult to achieve profitability. DMart Ready, on the other hand, has a well-
managed model. Although it has not grown rapidly due to weak economics in the
online business, it is prepared for any growth opportunities.
8 June 2023 2
Avenue Supermarts
Nov-21
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
May-22
May-23
Mar-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
May-21
May-22
Nov-22
May-23
Mar-17
Oct-17
Oct-18
Oct-19
Oct-20
8 June 2023 3
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Exhibit 6: Revenue growth in FY20-23 led by area addition Exhibit 7: Expect Rev/store and Rev/sqft to grow in FY23-25E
Revenue Store count Area (m sqft) Rev/sqft (INR) Rev/store (INRm)
11%
27%
9%
20% 20%
16%
15% 14% 3%
-2%
Exhibit 8: 15%/20% store/area added during FY20-23, Exhibit 9: Subdued demand and large stores have affected
expect 14%/16% store/area add in FY23-25E Rev/sqft; expected to recover FY24E onward
36,022
28,659
29,904
33,601
35,969
39,785
11.5
13.4
15.7
18.2
4.9
5.9
7.8
8.8
FY19
FY18
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E
FY25E
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E
FY25E
8 June 2023 4
Avenue Supermarts
6% 4%
3%
10% 11% 11% 0%
8%
4% 5% 5%
2% -1%
-2% -2%
-7%
Absolute per sqft per store Absolute per sqft per store
8 June 2023 5
Avenue Supermarts
Exhibit 13: Cost management- COR growth is less/flat compared with Revenue/GP growth
FY22-23 FY20-23 FY23-25 FY18-23
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E
YoY (pre-Covid) (expected) (historical)
Revenue (INR b) 249 241 310 428 536 689 38% 20% 27% 23%
YoY (%) 24% -3% 28% 38% 25% 29%
Rev/sqft (INR) 36,022 28,659 29,904 33,601 35,979 39,785 12% -2% 9% 0%
YoY (%) -2% -20% 4% 12% 7% 11%
Rev/store (INR m) 1,265 1,062 1,172 1,376 1,508 1,706 17% 3% 11% 6%
YoY (%) 5% -16% 10% 17% 10% 13%
GP (INR b) 38 36 46 65 81 106 41% 20% 28% 22%
YoY (%) 25% -5% 28% 41% 26% 30%
Gross margin 15.1% 14.9% 14.8% 15.1% 15.2% 15.4%
GP/sqft (INR) 5,500 4,323 4,511 5,185 5,607 6,286 15% -2% 10% -1%
YoY (%) -1% -21% 4% 15% 8% 12%
GP/store (INR m) 193 160 177 212 235 270 20% 3% 12% 5%
YoY (%) 6% -17% 10% 20% 11% 15%
Cost of Retailing (INR b) 16 18 21 28 35 44 35% 20% 24% 22%
YoY (%) 20% 13% 13% 35% 23% 26%
Cost of Retailing /sqft (INR) 2,393 2,223 2,050 2,264 2,378 2,582 10% -2% 7% -1%
YoY (%) -6% -7% -8% 10% 5% 9%
Cost of Retailing /store (INR m) 84 82 80 93 100 111 15% 3% 9% 5%
YoY (%) 2% -2% -2% 15% 8% 11%
EBITDA (INR b) 21 17 25 36 47 63 46% 20% 31% 22%
YoY (%) 30% -18% 43% 46% 29% 33%
EBITDA Margin 8.6% 7.2% 8.1% 8.5% 8.8% 9.1%
EBITDA /sqft (INR) 3,107 2,100 2,462 2,921 3,229 3,704 19% -2% 13% -1%
YoY (%) 3% -32% 17% 19% 11% 15%
EBITDA/store (INR m) 109 78 96 120 135 159 24% 3% 15% 5%
YoY (%) 11% -29% 24% 24% 13% 17%
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 14: Inventory days expected to remain near 34 days Exhibit 15: Net WC days remain within range
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E
FY25E
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E
FY25E
8 June 2023 6
Avenue Supermarts
Exhibit 16: DMART’s RoCE generation over store lifecycle (INR m per store)
Year of Operation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Sales Capacity (new store Trajectory) 40% 60% 80% 100% 110% 113% 118% 124% 131% 138%
Sales 399 599 799 998 1,098 1,128 1,178 1,238 1,308 1,378
Gross Margins % 13% 13% 14% 14% 15% 15% 15% 16% 16% 16%
GM 52 80 110 144 167 174 182 192 204 217
Operating Costs 71 74 77 80 83 87 90 94 97 101
Growth in Op expenses 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
EBITDA (excl. rent) (20) 6 32 64 84 87 92 99 107 115
margin -5% 1% 4% 6% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Pre Tax Cash RoCE % - Tier 1 -5% 2% 9% 18% 23% 24% 26% 27% 30% 32%
Pre Tax Cash RoCE % - Tier 2 -9% 3% 15% 31% 40% 41% 44% 47% 51% 55%
Source: MOFSL, Company
8 June 2023 7
Avenue Supermarts
Exhibit 17: Price movement in the Staples and HPC baskets in last 12 months
May'23
Aug'22
Sep'22
Dec'22
Jan'23
Feb'23
Mar'23
Apr'23
Oct'22
Jul'22
Jun'22
Nov'22
*Rebased to 100, Source: MOFSL
8 June 2023 8
Avenue Supermarts
Exhibit 19: DMart Ready — City network Exhibit 20: DMart Ready proportion in revenue/PAT
22 DMart Ready (INR m) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Cities
Revenue 441 1,436 3,540 7,913 16,672
YoY% 225 147 124 111
Consol revenue (INR b) 150 200 249 241 310
9 YoY% 33 24 -3 28
5 DMart ready revenue share (%) 0 1 1 3 5
1 1 1 DMart Ready Loss -481 -508 -797 -806 -1,421
Consol PAT (INR b) 8.1 9.0 13.0 11.0 14.9
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
DMart ready loss share (%) -6 -6 -6 -7 -10
Source: MOFSL, Company Source: MOFSL, Company
8 June 2023 9
Avenue Supermarts
Inventory heavy model as it Inventory light model as it Hybrid model combine Inventory heavy model as it
Inventory storage involves outright purchase of provides only infra & logistic features of inventory and involves outright purchase of
inventory support. hyper local model inventory
Capital requirement Capital intensive Capital light Moderate capital Capital intensive
8 June 2023 10
Avenue Supermarts
And then growth staggered to a 10% CAGR over FY42-50E assuming 5% SSSG
and keeping the margins at 10%.
Assuming a terminal growth rate of 4% and WACC of 11.5%, we arrive at a TP of
INR4,200, offering 21% upside.
Exhibit 25: Expect 27% revenue CAGR over FY23-25 Exhibit 26: Expect 28% GP CAGR over FY23-25
Revenue (INR b) YoY growth (%) Gross Profit (INR b) Gross margin (%)
15.9%
39% 38%
15.4%
33% 33%
15.3%
15.2%
28% 25% 29%
15.1%
26%
15.1%
15.0%
24%
14.9%
14.9%
14.8%
-3%
86 119 150 200 249 241 310 428 536 689 12.8 18.2 24.0 30.0 37.7 35.9 45.8 64.6 81.4 106.2
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E
FY25E
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E
FY25E
Source: MOFSL, Company Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 27: Expect 31% EBITDA CAGR over FY23-25 Exhibit 28: Expect 29% PAT CAGR over FY23-25
EBITDA (INR b) EBITDA margin (%) PAT (INR b) PAT margin (%)
6.6 9.8 13.5 16.3 21.3 17.4 25.0 36.4 46.9 62.6 3.2 4.8 8.1 9.0 13.0 11.0 14.9 23.8 29.3 39.7
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E
FY25E
FY22
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY23
FY24E
FY25E
8 June 2023 11
Avenue Supermarts
Exhibit 29: Expect FATR to improve Exhibit 30: Expect improvement in RoE / ROCE
Capex (INR b) FATR RoE (%) RoCE (%) RoIC (%)
32.0
4.3 4.1
3.9 4.0
3.6 3.5
3.2 24.0
2.9 3.1
2.8
16.0
8.0
6.3 6.4 9.1 14.0 17.1 20.3 23.9 22.1 24.6 28.2
0.0
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E
FY25E
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23E
FY24E
FY25E
Source: MOFSL, Company Source: MOFSL, Company
8 June 2023 12
Avenue Supermarts
8 June 2023 13
Avenue Supermarts
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing
8 June 2023 14
Avenue Supermarts
8 June 2023 15
Avenue Supermarts
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Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not
consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from
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