Valuation & Analysis of M&As
Valuation & Analysis of M&As
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Merger: represents the absorption of one company by another. That is, one of the companies
remains and the other ceases to exist as a separate entity.
Consolidation: both companies terminate their previous legal existence and become part of a
newly formed company
Acquisition: refers to the purchase of part or whole of one company by another. The company
being acquired ceases to exist after the deal
The company being acquired is called the “target” and the one acquiring the “acquirer”
Depending on the relation of the acquirer and target, a M&A deal can be classified as:
Horizontal merger: mostly a deal between two competitors (e.g. Vodafone & Idea). Most common type.
Vertical merger: acquisition in the same production chain. Acquisition of a supplier is called “backward
integration” and customer “forward integration”. (E.g. Adani’s acquisition of Carmichael mine in Australia)
Conglomerate merger: M&A deal in a totally unrelated line of business (e.g. RILs acquisition of Infotel
Broadband in 2010 to foray into telecom)
Method of payment:
Cash payment: simplest and cleanest for of paying for an acquisition.
Share based payment: target’s shareholders / target receive shares. ‘Exchange ratio’ based on
‘undisturbed price’ of acquirer’s and target’s shares before the deal
Mixed offering: a combination of cash and shares/securities. Increases the complexity of deal valuation…
Deals can end up having multiple motives, but there is always a primary/key reason from the above…
Difference between net worth of target and value paid is recorded as “Goodwill” or “Capital Reserve”
Company A Company B
Capital + Reserves 4,652 36,176
Borrowings 3,623 8,351
Other Liabilities 2,205 19,583
Total Liabilities 10,480 64,110
Fixed Assets 221 5,528
Investments 3,963 17,965 Assume Firm B acquires firm A
Other Assets 5.621 37,793 by paying 25% premium over the
Cash & Equivalents 675 2.824 market price
Total Assets 10,480 64,110 Prepare accounts assuming this
Sales 2,322 9,926 is:
Expenses 2,080 5.960
1. All cash deal
2. Share-swap
Operating Profit 241 3.966
Cost of funds for firm B is 10%
Other Income 496 506
Interest 226 2,680
Depreciation 17 766
Profit before tax 495 1,026
Tax % 35.6% 70%
Net Profit 319 306
# of shares (cr) 23 178
Share price (Rs.) 1,000 250
The analysis is straightforward with a cash offer, but it gets complicated when the consideration is stock.
SYNERGIES
Often synergies are expressed as annual amount: So, PV of synergies = 1/WACC (i.e. perpetual annuity)
Synergies are usually not achieved in year 1 after deal (but take 3-5yrs), time value has to be factored in.
Value ‘AB’ = Value A + Value B + (PV of Synergies – deal premium paid to A) – PV of deal costs
Most of the times the entire NPV (i.e. PV of synergies – cost of deal) is given to the target firm’s
shareholders as a ‘premium’ i.e. most deals are zero NPV or NPV negative for acquirer
Firm B shareholders
Firm A shareholders Premium paid >
Synergies, i.e. value Market value pre-deal 44,500
Market value pre-deal 23,000 transfer from B to A + PV of Synergies 5,043
+ Premium received 5,750
- Premium paid to A - 5,750
= Share of combined firm 28,750
= Share of combined firm 43,793
EPS accretion is presented as a key measure of a deal’s attractiveness, but in reality share of value and
post-deal RoCE is key
Strategic rationale: What is the rationale of the deal? Does it chime with the industry dynamics
and does it meaningfully change a firms positioning? Beware of deals for just “bootstrapping
earnings”
Synergies: What are the synergies from the deal? What are the sources of synergies? What is
the time frame and trajectory of these? Is the management being aggressive or conservative?
Will these be identifiable, tracked and reported regularly to the market?
Deal structure: Is it a simple ‘A+B’ or is a complex maze of structures? One has to look through
complex structures to the economic reality and perhaps the real motive of the deal. Complex
structures create a fog and are not appreciated by the market..
Valuing the merger: what is the value of the combined entity and importantly the value of the
synergies? Is 1+1 >2? Which shareholder group is getting a greater share of benefits (usually it
is the target company). Structures with share components need bit more complex valuations…
Share prices quickly adjust to reflect the market’s opinion of the deal’s value and benefits to the acquirer or
target company
Timelines, regulatory risk, etc. Are there any risks from Competition authorities? Will remedial
actions be required and what is the impact of those? Are major shareholders with the deal?
Spin-off refers to creating a separate listed entity from an existing division with the same set of
starting shareholders as the listed parent entity - also called as “carve-outs”
Multiple reasons:
In the 80s and 90s, conglomerates were “in fashion” and considered a way of “diversifying” risk.. That has
since changed with focussed companies delivering better returns financially and on the stock markets.
Changing technology – e.g. shift to LED bulbs from conventional forced both Philips and Siemens to
divest their lighting divisions.
Need to be more nimble/accountable: in a sprawling conglomerate smaller businesses compete for
capital and management time with larger ones or hide behind large successful divisions; decision making
gets stuck in bureaucracy
Unlocking value: a strong reason for separating non-core businesses within a conglomerate by reducing
complexity and via reducing conglomerate discount
E.g. Siemens Healthineers and Danaher: Healthcare business undervalued being housed in a Industrial Company
L&T’s spin-offs of L&T Infotech & L&T Finance business, sale of Electricals (to Schneider).
Reduce conglomerate cost burden: e.g. Siemens Healthineers and Wind Power saw “group” overhead
allocations reduce by 3-4% of their sales – dis-synergies of being within a conglomerate
180 250
160 Danaher Fortiv Danaher HC adj. Fortiv adj
140 200
120
150
100
80
100
60
40 50
20
0 0
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Oct-08
Oct-09
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
What happened to price of each
component until 2020 is well
known!! Makes for a “textbook”
case of spin-off benefits..
Additionally, Gamesa and Areva have entered into contractual agreements whereby Areva waives existing
contractual restrictions in Gamesa’s and Areva’s offshore wind joint venture Adwen, simplifying the merger
between Gamesa and Siemens. As part of these agreements, Gamesa – in alignment with Siemens – grants
Areva a put option for Areva’s 50 percent stake and a call option for Gamesa’s 50 percent stake in Adwen.
Both options expire in three months. Alternatively, Areva can in this time divest 100 percent of Adwen to a third
party via a drag-along right for Gamesa’s stake.
Siemens and Gamesa expect significant synergy potentials in a combined setup. In total, annual EBIT
synergies of €230 million are expected in year four post closing. Closing is expected in the first quarter of
calendar year 2017.
Presentation: https://www.siemensgamesa.com/-/media/siemensgamesa/downloads/en/investors-and-
shareholders/cnmv-filings/2016/20160617-analist-presentation-2.pdf
8.1%
Simple “A+B”
concept until
EBITA line
Deal specific
items, costs,
etc
Net effect
1+1>2 due to
synergies
EPS accretion is presented as a key measure of the attractiveness of the deal, but in reaiity RoCE is
where the real story lies…
Initial cash outflow for Siemens 1,766 1,766 1,766 1,766 €3.75/Gamesa share special payout + other
contributions
Value for Siemens Wind 4,604 5,248 5,893 6,538
EV/Sales for Siemens Wind 0.75 0.85 0.96 1.06
EV/adjusted EBITA for Siemens Wind 8.1 9.2 10.4 11.5 Value of the deal for
Gamesa shareholders =
Equity value attributable to Gamesa 4,427 4,875 5,323 5,771 41% of new entity
Special dividend for Gamesa shareholders 1,035 1,035 1,035 1,035 €3.75/Gamesa share special payout +
Implied equity value paid to Gamesa 5,462 5,910 6,358 6,806 41% of synergies
# of Gamesa shares outstanding 276 276 276 276 +
Per share value offered to Gamesa (excl. Adwen) 19.8 21.4 23.0 24.6 upfront cash (equating
to 60-65% of PV of
Value of Adwen stake + loans to Adwen 171 171 171 171 €74m share of equity + €97m loan by Gamesa to
Adwen. Taken at Book value synergies on after tax
Value for Gamesa shares including Adwen 20.4 22.0 23.6 25.3 basis)
2016e EV/Sales paid (ex-Adwen) 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5
2016e EV/EBITA paid (ex-Adwen) 11.7 12.8 13.8 14.9
Q&A
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