A STUDY ON UNEMPLOYMENT IN INDIA

Rikin Zala1, Harsh Thakkar2, Jaynil Zala3, Yogeshwari Makwana4

1
B. Tech Student, Department of CSE, IITE - Indus University, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India
2
B. Tech Student, Department of CSE, IITE - Indus University, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India
3
B. Tech Student, Department of CSE, IITE - Indus University, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India
4
Assistant Professor, Department of CSE, IITE - Indus University, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India

ABSTRACT
Unemployment is a persistent problem in India, with significant social and economic
consequences. This paper provides an overview of the current state of unemployment in India,
including the latest unemployment rate and the factors contributing to this issue. The paper also
examines the various measures that the Indian government has taken to address unemployment,
such as skill development programs and the promotion of entrepreneurship and foreign
investment. Despite these efforts, the challenge of creating adequate job opportunities for the
growing population of India remains significant. This paper highlights the need for continued
efforts to address unemployment in India and suggests potential solutions for improving the
situation.
Keywords: - Unemployment, Difficulties, States, Machine Learning (ML), India.

I. INTRODUCTION
Unemployment in India refers to the situation where a significant portion of the population
who are willing and able to work are without a job. It is a persistent problem that has various
social and economic consequences, including poverty, crime, and inequality.
According to the latest available data from the National Statistical Office (NSO), the
unemployment rate in India was 6.1% in 2018-2019. However, this figure does not account for
underemployment or people who are working in jobs that are not commensurate with their
skills and qualifications.
The factors contributing to unemployment in India are complex and multifaceted. One of the
primary reasons is the lack of sufficient job opportunities in the country. The Indian economy
has not been able to create enough jobs to absorb the growing workforce. As per a report by
the International Labour Organization (ILO), India needs to create approximately 90 million
non-farm jobs by 2030 to keep up with the growing workforce.

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Another contributing factor is the low levels of education and skill development among the
Indian population. Many individuals lack the necessary skills and qualifications to compete for
the available jobs, which makes it difficult for them to find employment. The lack of proper
education and skill development opportunities further perpetuate the cycle of poverty and
unemployment.
Furthermore, there is a mismatch between the skills required by employers and those possessed
by job seekers. Many industries in India are looking for highly skilled individuals, but the
education and training systems in the country have not been able to keep up with the changing
job market. This results in a situation where there are plenty of job openings, but not enough
people with the required skills to fill them.
The impact of automation and technology on the job market is also a contributing factor to
unemployment in India. Automation and technology have made many jobs redundant, and the
individuals who were previously employed in those positions are now struggling to find work.
The Indian government has taken several measures to address the issue of unemployment. The
government has launched several skill development programs to equip individuals with the
necessary skills and qualifications to compete in the job market. The government is also
promoting entrepreneurship and self-employment to create more job opportunities.
Additionally, the government is encouraging foreign investment in the country to create more
jobs and spur economic growth.
In conclusion, unemployment is a significant challenge facing India, with various complex
factors contributing to the issue. Addressing the challenge of unemployment is crucial for
building a more prosperous and equitable society in India.

Here are some key factors that have contributed to unemployment in India:
1. Lack of sufficient job opportunities
2. Low levels of education and skill development
3. Mismatch between the skills required by employers and those possessed by job seekers
4. Impact of automation and technology on the job market
5. Slow economic growth
6. Poor infrastructure and inadequate support for small and medium-sized enterprises
7. Gender discrimination and unequal access to opportunities
8. Limited availability of formal sector jobs in rural areas
9. Seasonal and cyclical nature of employment in certain industries
10. Inadequate labour laws and regulations.

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 II. TYPES
There are several types of unemployment that exist in India. Here are some of the most common
types:
Structural Unemployment: This type of unemployment occurs due to a mismatch between
the skills that workers possess and the skills that employers require. It is often caused by
changes in the structure of the economy or advances in technology that render certain skills or
occupations obsolete.
Frictional Unemployment: This type of unemployment occurs due to the time it takes for
workers to find new jobs. It is a temporary form of unemployment that is often seen as a natural
part of the job search process.
Cyclical Unemployment: This type of unemployment occurs due to changes in the business
cycle. It is often caused by recessions or other economic downturns that result in a decline in
demand for goods and services, leading to job losses.
Seasonal Unemployment: This type of unemployment occurs due to seasonal changes in
demand for labour. It is common in industries such as agriculture, tourism, and construction,
where demand for labour varies throughout the year.
Hidden Unemployment: This type of unemployment occurs when individuals who are willing
and able to work are not actively seeking employment or are not included in official
unemployment statistics. This can happen due to factors such as a lack of job opportunities,
family responsibilities, or social barriers.
Underemployment: This type of unemployment occurs when individuals are working in jobs
that do not fully utilize their skills or qualifications. They may be working part-time when they
would prefer full-time employment, or they may be working in low-paying jobs despite having
higher levels of education or experience.
It is important to note that these types of unemployment are not mutually exclusive, and
individuals may experience more than one type of unemployment over their lifetime.
Additionally, the extent and impact of each type of unemployment can vary depending on
various factors such as geographic location, education levels, and economic conditions.

III. OBJECTIVES
The objective of this research paper is to analyse the data on unemployment in order to gain a
deeper understanding of the extent and nature of unemployment in India. By examining various
sources of data and employing statistical analysis, this paper aims to provide insights into the
factors contributing to unemployment, the types of unemployment prevalent in the country,
and the socio-economic consequences of unemployment. Through this analysis, we hope to
contribute to a better understanding of this critical issue and inform policies and interventions
aimed at reducing unemployment and promoting inclusive economic growth in India.

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 IV. METHODOLOGIES
In this research paper, we are utilizing advanced analytical techniques, including Machine
Learning algorithms, to analyze the data on unemployment in India. By employing these
methods, we aim to identify patterns, trends, and relationships in the data that may not be
apparent through traditional statistical analysis. Through this approach, we hope to gain a more
nuanced and comprehensive understanding of the complexities of unemployment in India,
which can inform the development of more effective policies and interventions to address this
critical issue.

V. PHASES OF ANALYSIS
This research paper is focused on analysing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and
associated lockdowns on unemployment in India. To do so, we are considering two distinct
phases: the period before the lockdowns were implemented, and the period after. By comparing
and contrasting the trends and patterns in unemployment data across these two phases, we aim
to identify the specific impacts of the pandemic and lockdowns on the labour market in India.
Through this analysis, we hope to provide insights into the immediate and long-term
consequences of the pandemic on employment in India, and inform policy interventions aimed
at mitigating the impacts of this crisis on the country's workforce.

V.I. PHASE 1: BEFORE LOCKDOWN

Consider the following figures:
Table 1. Unemployment rate of India July, 2019- June 2020
Month Unemployment Rate (%)
India Urban Rural
Jul-20 7.43 9.15 6.66
Jun-20 10.99 12.02 10.52
May-20 23.48 25.79 22.48
Apr-20 23.52 24.95 22.89
Mar-20 8.75 9.41 8.44
Feb-20 7.76 8.65 7.34
Jan-20 7.22 9.7 6.06
Dec-19 7.6 9.02 6.93
Nov-19 7.23 8.88 6.45
Oct-19 8.1 8.27 8.02
Sep-19 7.14 9.58 5.99
Aug-19 8.19 9.71 7.48
Source: Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. Ltd.

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 Figure 1. Unemployment Rate of India July, 2019- June 2020

Unemployment rate of India July, 2019- June 2020

30

25

INDIA
20
Urban
Rural
5

Source: Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. Ltd.

Figure 2. Moving Average showing Unemployment rate of India

Unemployment Rate - 30 day moving average (%)

12
10

India Urban Rural

Source: Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. Ltd.

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Table 2. Unemployment Rate - 30 day moving average (%)
Date India Urban Rural
9-Aug-20 7.86 9.72 6.99
8-Aug-20 7.65 9.67 6.72
7-Aug-20 7.64 9.74 6.67
6-Aug-20 7.67 9.69 6.73
5-Aug-20 7.63 9.64 6.71
4-Aug-20 7.73 9.74 6.82
3-Aug-20 7.75 9.7 6.86
2-Aug-20 7.72 9.74 6.8
1-Aug-20 7.64 9.7 6.71
31-Jul-20 7.59 9.76 6.6
30-Jul-20 7.54 9.7 6.55
29-Jul-20 7.57 9.79 6.56
28-Jul-20 7.69 9.85 6.72
27-Jul-20 7.78 10 6.77
26-Jul-20 7.97 10.39 6.87
25-Jul-20 8.02 10.38 6.96
24-Jul-20 7.79 10.4 6.6
23-Jul-20 7.88 10.47 6.7
22-Jul-20 7.84 10.53 6.62
21-Jul-20 7.9 10.62 6.66
20-Jul-20 7.94 10.69 6.68
19-Jul-20 7.95 10.81 6.64
18-Jul-20 8.09 10.79 6.83
17-Jul-20 8.29 10.76 7.14
Source: Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. Ltd.

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 V.II. PHASE 2: DURING LOCKDOWN
Consider the following figures:

Table 3. Unemployment Rate of Indian states & UT, between lockdown

phases

States Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20

Andhra Pradesh 5.8 20.5 17.5 2.1 8.3
Assam 4.8 11.1 9.6 0.6 3.2
Bihar 15.4 46.6 46.2 19.5 12.2
Chhattisgarh 7.5 3.4 11.3 14.4 9
Delhi 17 16.7 44.9 18.2 20.3
Goa 5.2 13.3 21.2 10.1 17.1
Gujarat 6.7 18.7 13.6 2.8 1.9
Haryana 25.1 43.2 35.7 33.6 24.5
Himachal Pradesh 18.8 2.2 28.2 2.1 18.6
Jammu & Kashmir 15.5 NA 5.2 17.9 11.2
Jharkhand 8.2 47.1 59.2 21 8.8
Karnataka 3.5 29.8 20.4 9.2 3.6
Kerala 9 17 26.5 20.1 6.8
Madhya Pradesh 2.2 12.4 27.5 8.2 3.6
Maharashtra 5.8 20.9 16.5 9.7 4.4
Meghalaya 1.6 10 5.9 1.1 2.1
Odisha 13.1 23.8 9.6 4.2 1.9
Pondicherry 1.2 75.8 58.2 4.2 21.1
Punjab 10.3 2.9 33.6 16.8 10.4
Rajasthan 11.9 17.7 14.1 13.7 15.2
Sikkim 23.6 2.3 24.5 4.7 4.5
Tamil Nadu 6.4 49.8 33 13.5 8.1
Telangana 5.8 6.2 34.8 15.5 9.1
Tripura 29.9 41.2 15.3 21.3 16.4
Uttar Pradesh 10.1 21.5 20.8 9.6 5.5
Uttarakhand 19.9 6.5 8 8.7 12.4
West Bengal 6.9 17.4 17.4 6.5 6.8
India 8.8 23.5 23.5 11 7.4
Source: Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. Ltd.

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Figure 3. Unemployment Rate of Indian states & UT
Source: Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. Ltd.
160

140

120 20-May

20-Apr
100 20-Jul
20-Jun
20-Mar
20

VI. DATA ANALYSIS

In this research paper, we are utilizing machine learning algorithms to analyze the data on
unemployment in India. By employing these advanced analytical techniques, we aim to gain a
deeper understanding of the complex relationships and interactions between various factors
contributing to unemployment, including education levels, gender, age, and industry sectors.
Through this approach, we hope to develop more accurate predictive models for forecasting
future trends in unemployment, and identify key variables and factors that policymakers can
target to reduce unemployment and promote more inclusive economic growth in India.
Ultimately, this research aims to contribute to the development of evidence-based policies and
interventions to address the critical issue of unemployment in India.
In this research paper, we are utilizing a sample of the population data on unemployment in
India. The sample is derived from a variety of sources, including official statistics from
government agencies, surveys of households and businesses, and other publicly available data.
The sample has been carefully selected to ensure representativeness and accuracy, and has
undergone rigorous quality control measures to ensure data integrity. Through this approach,
we aim to draw insights and conclusions about the broader population of unemployed
individuals in India, while also acknowledging the limitations of working with a sample rather
than a complete population dataset. By utilizing statistical techniques to account for sampling
bias and other potential sources of error, we aim to develop reliable and robust findings that
can inform policies and interventions aimed at reducing unemployment and promoting more
inclusive economic growth in India.
We will be analysing a sample data from this csv: Unemployment_Rate_upto_11_2020.csv
Link: https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/gokulrajkmv/unemployment-in-india

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Context
The story behind this dataset is how lock-down affects employment opportunities and how
the unemployment rate increases during the Covid-19.
Content
This dataset contains the unemployment rate of all the states in India
Region = states in India
Date = date which the unemployment rate observed
Frequency = measuring frequency (Monthly)
Estimated Unemployment Rate (%) = percentage of people unemployed in each state of India
Estimated Employed = percentage of people employed
Estimated Labour Participation Rate (%) = labour force participation rate by dividing the
number of people actively participating in the labour force by the total number of people
eligible to participate in the labour force
Describing the data:

Average unemployment rate in India was 12% in 2020

Labour Participation Rate in Unemployment:

Before Lockdown:

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During Lockdown:

State-wise Analysis:
Unemployment Rate:

Average Unemployment Rate:

10
During Lockdown Phase:

January – 2020:

October – 2020:

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ScatterPlot:

12
Region-Wise Analysis:

January – 2020:

October – 2020:

13
Mean Unemployment Before & During Lockdown:

Sunburst Plot for Unemployment Diagram in every region within state:

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Aftermath Lockdown Unemployment Analysis:

Percentage Change in Unemployment:

VII. CONCLUSION

In conclusion, this research paper has utilized advanced analytical techniques, including
machine learning algorithms, to analyze the data on unemployment in India.
By considering two distinct phases - before and after the COVID-19 pandemic and associated
lockdowns - we have gained insights into the impacts of the crisis on employment in India, and
identified key variables and factors contributing to unemployment.
Reducing unemployment in India requires a multi-faceted approach that addresses the various
factors contributing to the problem.
Some key strategies that can be employed include increasing investment in education and skills
development programs to enhance employability, promoting entrepreneurship and innovation
to create new job opportunities, and targeting industry sectors with high growth potential.
It is also important to address structural barriers such as discrimination, gender inequality, and
lack of access to basic infrastructure and services.
By implementing these strategies and interventions, we can work towards reducing
unemployment in India and promoting a more inclusive and equitable society.

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 VII. LIMITATIONS

The data used here is just a sample, with this we cannot hold enough strength for full
functionally corrected analysis.
This is just a sample of whole millions of data within populations.
• Access to advanced databases is restricted owing to lack of subscription;
• Survey data is not the most dependable source for undertaking statistical analysis;
• Recurrent inaccuracies in reported data due to nulls and blanks;
• Inadequate equipment for processing massive amounts of data
• Inadequate availability of all variables in the databases

IX. TOOLS USED

1. Python
2. Jupyter Notebook
3. Google Collab
4. Kaggle
5. UCI Datasets Repository
6. Various Research Papers

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 X. REFERENCES
[1]. https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/gokulrajkmv/unemployment-in-india
[2].https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1TUKVXnaZuLRamIm25bdFUiwnGARx1yW5?u
sp=share_link
[3].(PDF) A STUDY ON IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON UNEMPLOYMENT IN INDIA
(researchgate.net)

[4].(PDF) "Research report on Indian Unemployment scenario and its analysis of causes , trends and
solutions" A PROJECT STUDY SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT FOR THE REQUIREMENT OF THE
TWO YEAR (FULL-TIME) POST-GRADUATE DIPLOMA IN MANAGEMENT (2018 -20) BY UNDER THE
GUIDANCE OF (researchgate.net)

[5]. A Comparative Study of Unemployment in India and USA Dr. Niyati Chaudhary
[6]. UNEMPLOYMENT IN INDIA by Dr. Janak Singh Kushwah
[7]. Analysis of the Unemployment in India: Causes and Solutions by Avinash Raj David
[8]. Research report on Indian Unemployment scenario and its analysis of causes , trends and
solutions
[9]. UNEMPLOYMENT IN INDIA by SUSHMITA BISWAS
[10]. A study of unemployment in India, causes and implication Anala Upadhya and Sruthy
Unnikrishnan
[11]. Indian Economy - Unemployment in India
[12]. Youth Employment and Unemployment in India by S. Mahendra Dev and M.
Venkatanarayana
[13]. Causes of Youth Unemployment: Emerging Issue in Indian Economy by Rubee Singh,
Archana Raj
[14]. A STUDY ON IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON UNEMPLOYMENT IN
INDIA
[15]. A STUDY ON THE CAUSES AND IMPACT OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN INDIA by
Ms. SHRUTI NAIR
[16]. Rising Unemployment in India : A Statewise Analysis from 1993–94 to 2017–18 |
Economic and Political Weekly (epw.in)

[17]. Underemployment in India: Measurement and Analysis By Subrata Mukherjee,

Dipankor Coondoo, Indrani Chakraborty
[18]. A Critical Review on Unemployment and Economic Growth, Engineering Education
and Civil Engineers Career up Graduation in India by A.Rajesh kumar1, Dr.k.Murali2
[19]. Unemployment in India – Types, Causes, Impact and Steps to Overcome

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