STAT – 324 Summer Semester 1426/1427 Dr.

Abdullah Al-Shiha

Chapter 9: One- and Two-Sample Estimation Problems:

9.1 Introduction:
• Suppose we have a population with some unknown
parameter(s).
Example: Normal(μ,σ)
μ and σ are parameters.
• We need to draw conclusions (make inferences) about the
unknown parameters.
• We select samples, compute some statistics, and make
inferences about the unknown parameters based on the
sampling distributions of the statistics.

* Statistical Inference
(1) Estimation of the parameters (Chapter 9)
→ Point Estimation
→ Interval Estimation (Confidence Interval)
(2) Tests of hypotheses about the parameters (Chapter 10)

9.3 Classical Methods of Estimation:

Point Estimation:
A point estimate of some population parameter θ is a single
value θˆ of a statistic Θˆ . For example, the value x of the statistic
X computed from a sample of size n is a point estimate of the
population mean μ.

Interval Estimation (Confidence Interval = C.I.):

An interval estimate of some population parameter θ is an
interval of the form (θˆL , θˆU ), i.e, θˆL <θ<θˆU . This interval
contains the true value of θ "with probability 1−α", that is
P(θˆL <θ<θˆU )=1−α.
• ( θˆL ,θˆU )= θˆL <θ<θˆU is called a (1−α)100%
confidence interval (C.I.) for θ.
• 1−α is called the confidence coefficient
• θˆL = lower confidence limit
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• θˆU = upper confidence limit

• α=0.1, 0.05, 0.025, 0.01 (0<α<1)

9.4 Single Sample: Estimation of the Mean (μ):

Recall:
• E( X ) = μ X = μ
σ2
• Var ( X ) = σ X2 =
n
σ ⎞
• X ~ N ⎛⎜ μ ,
⎟
⎝ n⎠
X −μ
• Z= ~N(0,1)
σ/ n
(σ2 is known)
X −μ
• T= ~ t(n−1)
S/ n
(σ2 is unknown)
• We use the sampling distribution of X to make
inferences about μ.

Notation:
Za is the Z-value leaving an area of a to the
right; i.e., P(Z>Za)=a or equivalently,
P(Z<Za)=1−a

Point Estimation of the Mean (μ):

n
• The sample mean X = ∑ X i / n is a "good" point estimate
i =1
for μ.
Interval Estimation (Confidence Interval) of the Mean (μ):
(i) First Case: σ2 is known:
Result:
n
If X = ∑ X i / n is the sample mean of a random sample of size n
i =1
from a population (distribution) with mean μ and known
variance σ2, then a (1−α)100% confidence interval for μ is :

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σ σ
( X − Zα , X + Zα )
2
n 2
n
σ
⇔ X ± Zα
2
n
σ σ
⇔ X − Zα < μ < X + Zα
2
n 2
n
where Z α is the Z-value leaving an area
2
of α/2 to the right; i.e., P(Z> Z α )=α/2, or
2
equivalently, P(Z< Z α )=1−α/2.
2
Note:
σ σ
We are (1−α)100% confident that μ ∈ ( X − Z α , X + Zα )
2
n 2
n

Example 9.2:
The average zinc concentration recorded from a sample of zinc
measurements in 36 different locations is found to be 2.6
gram/milliliter. Find a 95% and 99% confidence interval (C.I.)
for the mean zinc concentration in the river. Assume that the
population standard deviation is 0.3.
Solution:
μ=the mean zinc concentration in the river.
(unknown parameter)
Population Sample
μ=?? n=36
σ=0.3 X =2.6

First, a point estimate for μ is X =2.6.

(a) We want to find 95% C.I. for μ.

α = ??
95% = (1−α)100%
⇔ 0. 95 = (1−α)
⇔ α=0.05 ⇔ α/2 = 0.025
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Z α = Z0.025
2
= 1.96
A 95% C.I. for μ is
σ
X ± Zα
2
n
σ σ
⇔ X − Zα < μ < X + Zα
2
n 2
n

⇔ 2.6 − (1.96)⎛⎜
0.3 ⎞ ⎛ 0.3 ⎞
⎟ < μ < 2.6 + (1.96)⎜ ⎟
⎝ 36 ⎠ ⎝ 36 ⎠
⇔ 2.6 − 0.098 < μ < 2.6 + 0.098
⇔ 2.502 < μ < 2.698
⇔ μ ∈( 2.502 , 2.698)
We are 95% confident that μ ∈( 2.502 , 2.698).

(b) Similarly, we can find that (Homework) A 99% C.I. for μ is

2.471 < μ < 2.729
⇔ μ ∈( 2.471 , 2.729)
We are 99% confident that μ ∈( 2.471 , 2.729)
Notice that a 99% C.I. is wider that a 95% C.I..
Note:
Error
|-----------|
______|______________ X _____ μ _________|____
σ σ
X − Zα X + Zα
2
n 2
n
|----------------------|--------------------------|
σ σ
Zα Zα
2
n 2
n
Theorem 9.1:
If X is used as an estimate of μ, we can then be (1−α)100%
σ
confident that the error (in estimation) will not exceed Z α .
2
n

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Note:
σ
max error of estimation = Z α with (1−α)100% confidence.
2
n
Example:
In Example 9.2, we are 95% confident that the sample mean
X = 2.6 differs from the true mean μ by an amount less than
σ ⎛ 0.3 ⎞
Zα = (1.96)⎜ ⎟ = 0.098 .
2
n ⎝ 36 ⎠
Note:
σ
Let e be the maximum amount of the error, that is e = Z α ,
2
n
then:
2
σ σ ⎛ σ⎞
e = Zα ⇔ n = Zα ⇔ n = ⎜ Zα ⎟
⎜ ⎟
2
n 2
e ⎝ 2 e⎠
Theorem 9.2:
If X is used as an estimate of μ, we can then be (1−α)100%
confident that the error (in estimation) will not exceed a
2
⎛ σ⎞
specified amount e when the sample size is n = ⎜ Z α ⎟ .
⎜ ⎟
⎝ 2 e⎠
Note:
1. All fractional values of n = ( Z α σ / e) 2 are rounded up to the
2
next whole number.
2. If σ is unknown, we could take a preliminary sample of
size n≥30 to provide an estimate of σ. Then using
n
S= ∑ ( X i − X ) /( n − 1)
2
as an approximation for σ in
i =1
Theorem 9.2 we could determine approximately how
many observations are needed to provide the desired
degree of accuracy.
Example 9.3:
How large a sample is required in Example 9.2 if we want to be
95% confident that our estimate of μ is off by less than 0.05?
Solution:

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We have σ= 0.3 , Z α = 1.96 , e=0.05. Then by Theorem 9.2,

2
2
⎛ σ ⎞ ⎛ 0 .3 ⎞
2
n = ⎜ Z α ⎟ = ⎜1.96 × ⎟ = 138.3 ≈ 139
⎜ e ⎟ ⎝ 0. 05 ⎠
⎝ 2 ⎠
Therefore, we can be 95% confident that a random sample of
size n=139 will provide an estimate X differing from μ by an
amount less than e=0.05.

Interval Estimation (Confidence Interval) of the Mean (μ):

(ii) Second Case: σ2 is unknown:
Recall:
X −μ
• T= ~ t(n−1)
S/ n
Result:
n n
If X = ∑ X i / n and S = ∑ ( X i − X ) 2 /(n − 1) are the sample mean
i =1 i =1
and the sample standard deviation of a random sample of size n
from a normal population (distribution) with unknown variance
σ2, then a (1−α)100% confidence interval for μ is :
S S
( X − tα , X + tα )
2
n 2
n
S
⇔ X ± tα
2
n
S S
⇔ X − tα < μ < X + tα
2
n 2
n

where tα is the t-value with ν=n−1 degrees of freedom leaving

2
an area of α/2 to the right; i.e., P(T> tα )=α/2, or equivalently,
2
P(T< tα )=1−α/2.
2
Example 9.4:
The contents of 7 similar containers of sulfuric acid are 9.8,
10.2, 10.4, 9.8, 10.0, 10.2, and 9.6 liters. Find a 95% C.I. for the
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mean of all such containers, assuming an approximate normal

distribution.
Solution:
n n
.n=7 X = ∑ X i / n = 10.0 S= ∑ ( X i − X ) /( n − 1) = 0.283
2
i =1 i =1

n
First, a point estimate for μ is X = ∑ X i / n = 10.0
i =1

Now, we need to find a confidence interval for μ.

α = ??
95%=(1−α)100% ⇔ 0. 95=(1−α) ⇔ α=0.05 ⇔ α/2=0.025
t α = t0.025 =2.447 (with ν=n−1=6 degrees of freedom)
2
A 95% C.I. for μ is 0.025
X ± tα
S ↓
2
n 6 → t0.025=2.447
S S
⇔ X − tα < μ < X + tα
2
n 2
n

⇔ 10.0 − (2.447)⎛⎜
0.283 ⎞ ⎛ 0.283 ⎞
⎟ < μ < 10.0 + (2.447)⎜ ⎟
⎝ 7 ⎠ ⎝ 7 ⎠
⇔ 10.0 − 0.262< μ < 10.0 + 0.262
⇔ 9.74 < μ < 10.26
⇔ μ ∈( 9.74 , 10.26)
We are 95% confident that μ ∈( 9.74 , 10.26).

9.5 Standard Error of a Point Estimate:

• The standard error of an estimator is its standard
deviation.
n
• We use X = ∑ X i / n as a point estimator of μ, and we used
i =1
the sampling distribution of X to make a (1−α)100% C.I.
for μ.
• The standard deviation of X , which is σ X = σ / n , is
called the standard error of X . We write s.e.( X )= σ / n .

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• Note: a (1−α)100% C.I. for μ, when σ2 is known, is

σ
X ± Zα = X ± Z α s.e( X ) .
2
n 2
• Note: a (1−α)100% C.I. for μ, when σ2 is unknown and
the distribution is normal, is
S
X ± tα = X ± t α sˆ.e( X ) . (ν=n−1 df)
2
n 2

9.7 Two Samples: Estimating the Difference between

Two Means (μ1−μ2):
Recall: For two independent samples:
• μ X1− X 2 = μ1 − μ 2 = E ( X 1 − X 2 )
σ 12 σ 22
• σ 2
X1 − X 2 = + = Var ( X 1 − X 2 )
n1 n2
σ 12 σ 22
• σX = σ X2 1 − X 2 = +
1−X2 n1 n2
( X 1 − X 2 ) − ( μ1 − μ 2 )
• Z= ~N(0,1)
σ 12 σ 22
+
n1 n2

Point Estimation of μ1−μ2:

• X 1 − X 2 is a "good" point estimate for μ1−μ2.

Confidence Interval of μ1−μ2:

(i) First Case: σ 12 and σ 22 are known:
( X 1 − X 2 ) − ( μ1 − μ 2 )
• Z= ~N(0,1)
σ 12 σ 22
+
n1 n2
• Result:
a (1−α)100% confidence interval for μ1−μ2 is :
σ 12 σ 22 σ 12 σ 22
( X1 − X 2 ) − Zα + < μ1 − μ 2 < ( X 1 − X 2 ) + Z α +
2
n1 n2 2
n1 n2

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σ 12 σ 22
or ( X 1 − X 2 ) ± Z α +
2
n1 n2
⎛ σ 12 σ 22 σ 12 σ 22 ⎞⎟
⎜
or ( X 1 − X 2 ) − Z α + , ( X1 − X 2 ) + Z α +
⎜ n n n n2 ⎟
⎝ 2 1 2 2 1 ⎠

(ii) Second Case: σ 12 = σ 22 =σ2 is unknown:

• If σ 12 and σ 22 are unknown but σ 12 = σ 22 =σ2, then the
pooled estimate of σ2 is
(n1 − 1) S12 + (n2 − 1) S 22
S 2p =
n1 + n2 − 2
where S12 is the variance of the 1-st sample and S 22 is the
variance of the 2-nd sample. The degrees of freedom of S 2p
is ν=n1+n2−2.
• Result:
a (1−α)100% confidence interval for μ1−μ2 is :
S 2p S 2p S 2p S 2p
( X 1 − X 2 ) − tα + < μ1 − μ 2 < ( X 1 − X 2 ) + t α +
2
n1 n2 2
n1 n2
or
1 1 1 1
( X 1 − X 2 ) − tα S p + < μ1 − μ 2 < ( X 1 − X 2 ) + t α S p +
2
n1 n2 2
n1 n2
1 1
or ( X 1 − X 2 ) ± tα S p +
2
n1 n2
⎛
⎜ 1 1 1 1 ⎞⎟
or ( X 1 − X 2 ) − t α S p + , ( X 1 − X 2 ) + tα S p +
⎜
⎝ 2
n1 n 2 2
n1 n2 ⎟⎠
where tα is the t-value with ν=n1+n2−2 degrees of freedom.
2
Example 9.6: (1st Case: σ 12 and σ 22 are known)
An experiment was conducted in which two types of engines, A
and B, were compared. Gas mileage in miles per gallon was
measured. 50 experiments were conducted using engine type A
and 75 experiments were done for engine type B. The gasoline
used and other conditions were held constant. The average gas

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mileage for engine A was 36 miles per gallon and the average
for engine B was 42 miles per gallon. Find 96% confidence
interval for μB−μA, where μA and μB are population mean gas
mileage for engines A and B, respectively. Assume that the
population standard deviations are 6 and 8 for engines A and B,
respectively.
Solution:
Engine A Engine B
nA=50 nB=75
X A =36 X B =42
σA=6 σB=8
A point estimate for μB−μA is X B − X A =42−36=6.

Confidence interval:
α = ??
96% = (1−α)100% ⇔ 0. 96 = (1−α) ⇔ α=0.04 ⇔ α/2 = 0.02
Z α = Z0.02 = 2.05
2
A 96% C.I. for μB−μA is
σ B2 σ A2 σ B2 σ A2
( X B − X A ) − Zα + < μB − μ A < ( X B − X A ) + Zα +
2
nB nA 2
nB nA
σ B2 σ A2
( X B − X A ) ± Zα +
2
nB nA
82 62
(42 − 36) ± Z 0.02 +
75 50
64 36
6 ± (2.05) +
75 50
6 ± 2.571
3.43 < μB−μA < 8.57
We are 96% confident that μB−μA ∈(3.43, 8.57).

Example 9.7: (2nd Case: σ 12 = σ 22 unknown) Reading Assignment

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Example: (2nd Case: σ 12 = σ 22 unknown)

To compare the resistance of wire A with that of wire B, an
experiment shows the following results based on two
independent samples (original data multiplied by 1000):
Wire A: 140, 138, 143, 142, 144, 137
Wire B: 135, 140, 136, 142, 138, 140
Assuming equal variances, find 95% confidence interval for
μA−μB, where μA (μB) is the mean resistance of wire A (B).
B

Solution:
Wire A Wire B
nA=6 nB=6
X A =140.67 X B =138.50
S2A=7.86690 S2B=7.10009
A point estimate for μA−μB is X A − X B =140.67−138.50=2.17.

Confidence interval:
95% = (1−α)100% ⇔ 0. 95 = (1−α) ⇔ α=0.05 ⇔ α/2 = 0.025
ν= df = nA+nB − 2= 10B

t α = t0.025 = 2.228
2
(n A − 1) S A2 + (n B − 1) S B2
S 2p =
n A + nB − 2
(6 − 1)(7.86690) + (6 − 1)(7.10009)
= =7.4835
6+6−2
S p = S 2p = 7.4835 = 2.7356
A 95% C.I. for μA−μB is
1 1 1 1
( X A − X B ) − tα S p + < μ A − μ B < ( X A − X B ) + tα S p +
2
n A nB 2
n A nB
1 1
or ( X A − X B ) ± t α S p +
2
n A nB
1 1
(140.67 − 138.50) ± (2.228) (2.7356) +
6 6
2.17 ± 3.51890
−1.35< μA−μB < 5.69
We are 95% confident that μA−μB ∈(−1.35, 5.69)B

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9.9 Single Sample: Estimating of a Proportion:

.p = Population proportion of successes (elements of Type A) in

the population
A no. of elements of type A in the population
= =
A+ B Total no. of elements
.n = sample size
X = no. of elements of type A in the sample of size n.
p̂ = Sample proportion of successes (elements of Type A) in
the sample
X
=
n
Recall that:
(1) X ~ Binomial (n, p)
X
(2) E( p̂ )= E( )= p
n
X pq
(3) Var( p̂ ) = Var( ) = ; q =1− p
n n
(4) For large n, we have
pq
p̂ ~ N(p, ) (Approximately)
n
pˆ − p
Z= ~ N(0,1) (Approximately)
pq
n

Point Estimation for p:

A good point estimator for the population proportion p is given
by the statistic (sample proportion):
X
pˆ =
n
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Confidence Interval for p:

Result:
For large n, an approximate (1−α)100% confidence interval for
p is :
pˆ qˆ
pˆ ± Z α ; qˆ = 1 − pˆ
2
n
or
⎛ pˆ qˆ pˆ qˆ ⎞
⎜ pˆ − Z , pˆ + Z α ⎟
⎜ α ⎟
⎝ 2
n 2
n ⎠
or
pˆ qˆ pˆ qˆ
pˆ − Z α < p < pˆ + Z α
2
n 2
n

Example 9.10:
In a random sample of n=500 families owing television sets in
the city of Hamilton, Canada, it was found that x=340
subscribed to HBO. Find 95% confidence interval for the actual
proportion of families in this city who subscribe to HBO.
Solution:
.p = proportion of families in this city who subscribe to HBO.
.n = sample size
= 500
X = no. of families in the sample who subscribe to HBO.
= 340
p̂ = proportion of families in the sample who subscribe to HBO.
X 340
= = = 0.68
n 500
qˆ = 1 − pˆ = 1 − 0.68 = 0.32
A point estimator for p is
X 340
p̂ = = = 0.68
n 500

Now,
95% = (1−α)100% ⇔ 0. 95 = (1−α) ⇔ α=0.05 ⇔ α/2 = 0.025
Z α = Z0.025 = 1.96
2

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A 95% confidence interval for p is:

pˆ qˆ
pˆ ± Z α ; qˆ = 1 − pˆ
2
n
(0.68)(0.32)
0.68 ± 1.96
500
0.68 ± 0.04
0.64< p < 0.72
We are 95% confident that p ∈(0.64,0.72).

9.10 Two Samples: Estimating the Difference between

Two Proportions:

·
independent
¹

Suppose that we have two populations:

• .p1 = proportion of the 1-st population.
• .p2 = proportion of the 2-nd population.
• We are interested in comparing p1 and p2, or equivalently,
making inferences about p1− p2.
• We independently select a random sample of size n1 from
the 1-st population and another random sample of size n2
from the 2-nd population:
• Let X1 = no. of elements of type A in the 1-st sample.
X1~Binomial(n1, p1)
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E(X1)= n1 p1
Var(X1)=n1 p1 q1 (q1=1− p1)
• Let X2 = no. of elements of type A in the 2-nd sample.
X2~Binomial(n2, p2)
E(X2)= n2 p2
Var(X2)=n2 p2 q2 (q2=1− p2)
X1
• pˆ1 = = proportion of the 1-st sample
n1
X
• pˆ 2 = 2 = proportion of the 2-nd sample
n2
• The sampling distribution of pˆ 1 − pˆ 2 is used to make
inferences about p1− p2.
Result:
(1) E ( pˆ 1 − pˆ 2 ) = p1 − p2
p1 q1 p2 q2
(2) Var ( pˆ 1 − pˆ 2 ) = + ; q1 = 1 − p1 , q2 = 1 − p2
n1 n2
(3) For large n1 and n2, we have
p1 q1 p 2 q 2
pˆ 1 − pˆ 2 ~ N ( p1 − p 2 , + ) (Approximately)
n1 n2
( pˆ − pˆ 2 ) − ( p1 − p2 )
Z= 1 ~ N(0,1) (Approximately)
p1 q1 p2 q2
+
n1 n2

Point Estimation for p1− p2:

A good point estimator for the difference between the two
proportions, p1− p2, is given by the statistic:
X1 X 2
pˆ 1 − pˆ 2 = −
n1 n2

Confidence Interval for p1− p2:

Result:
For large n1 and n2, an approximate (1−α)100% confidence
interval for p1− p2 is :
pˆ 1 qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ 2
( pˆ 1 − pˆ 2 ) ± Z α +
2
n1 n2

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or
⎛ pˆ 1 qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ 2 pˆ 1 qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ 2 ⎞
⎜ ( pˆ − pˆ ) − Z + , ( pˆ 1 − pˆ 2 ) + Z α + ⎟
⎜ 1 2 α ⎟
⎝ 2
n1 n2 2
n1 n2 ⎠
or
pˆ1 qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ2 pˆ1 qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ2
( pˆ1 − pˆ 2 ) − Z α + < p1 − p2 < ( pˆ1 − pˆ 2 ) + Z α +
2
n1 n2 2
n1 n2
Example 9.13:
A certain change in a process for manufacture of component
parts is being considered. Samples are taken using both existing
and the new procedure to determine if the new process results in
an improvement. If 75 of 1500 items from the existing
procedure were found to be defective and 80 of 2000 items from
the new procedure were found to be defective, find 90%
confidence interval for the true difference in the fraction of
defectives between the existing and the new process.
Solution:
.p1 = fraction (proportion) of defectives of the existing process
.p2 = fraction (proportion) of defectives of the new process
p̂1 = sample fraction of defectives of the existing process
p̂2 = sample fraction of defectives of the new process

Existing Process New Process

n1 = 1500 n2 = 2000
X1=75 X2=80
X1 75 X2 80
pˆ 1 = = = 0.05 pˆ 2 = = = 0.04
n1 1500 n2 2000
qˆ1 = 1 − 0.05 = 0.95 qˆ 2 = 1 − 0.04 = 0.96

Point Estimation for p1− p2:

A point estimator for the difference between the two
proportions, p1− p2, is:
pˆ 1 − pˆ 2 = 0.05 − 0.04 = 0.01
Confidence Interval for p1− p2:
A 90% confidence interval for p1− p2 is :

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pˆ 1 qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ 2
( pˆ 1 − pˆ 2 ) ± Z α +
2
n1 n2
pˆ 1 qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ 2
( pˆ 1 − pˆ 2 ) ± Z 0.05 +
n1 n2
(0.05)(0.95) (0.04)(0.96)
0.01 ± 1.645 +
1500 2000
0.01 ± 0.01173
−0.0017 < p1− p2 < 0.0217
We are 90% confident that p1− p2 ∈(−0.0017, 0.0217).
Note:
Since 0∈90% confidence interval=(−0.0017, 0.0217), there is no
reason to believe that the new procedure produced a significant
decrease in the proportion of defectives over the existing
method (p1− p2 ≈ 0 ⇔ p1 ≈ p2).

Department of Statistics and O.R. − 99 − King Saud University