DB GP Report Q2FY2023-24 17-January-2024

ISSUE NO.
14
Pakistan Consumer
Confidence Index (CCI)
Results of Q2 FY2023-24 Survey Report
(Survey conducted during October 2023)
17 January 2023
Key highlights of change in Consumer Sentiments across
Pakistan from Q1 FY2023-24 to Q2 FY2023-24
Report prepared by D&B Pakistan in collaboration with Gallup Pakistan
Dun & Bradstreet Pakistan
WORLD’S LEADING PROVIDER OF DATA & ANALYTICS WITH GLOBAL FOOTPRINT ACROSS
200+ COUNTRIES
D&B - Solutions & Services

D&B was established in 1841 and has the world’s largest business database, comprising of over
500+ million company records.
D&B has 8 service lines in the region for its clients.
Risk Consultancy Services Sales & Marketing Solutions Credit Bureau Solutions
Helps banks and financial Provides measurable ROI on the Reduce information
institutions measure and acquisition, retention, and asymmetry between lenders
reduce risk, comply with growth strategies across sales and borrowers and support
Basel regulations, and and marketing organizations. the development of financial
enhance profitability. infrastructure.
Risk Management Solutions D&B Consulting Financial Technology Solutions

Enable businesses to make Helps governments and large Provide software solutions to
informed decisions, minimize corporates evaluate business banks and financial institutions
risk, accelerate cash flow, and opportunities and risks to to manage credit and
monitor performance. formulate and implement operational risk.
effective strategies.
Economic Analysis Group Learning Solutions

Develops the D&B Business Provide innovative, high-quality,
Optimism Index and the CCI comprehensive training and
reports that study the business education programs to the
outlook and growth business community.
expectations of an economy.
Q2 FY2023-24 I Report prepared by D&B Pakistan in collaboration with Gallup Pakistan I 03

Consumer Sentiments are volatile and are shaped by consumers’ perception of their personal
financial situation as well as the overall financial and economic performance of the country.
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI Index) is a globally recognized instrument that serves as a
leading indicator for household consumption and saving, which in turn is a key driver of overall
economic activity in the country.
To help businesses and policymakers better understand this crucial link, Dun & Bradstreet and Gallup
have collaborated to publish a quarterly report. The CCI is a valuable tool for multiple stakeholders,
including governments, businesses, and financial institutions, as it enables them to gain a deeper
understanding of the market and make informed decisions backed by data.
To learn more about past CCI publications, please visit the D&B Pakistan Knowledge Capital website
(https://dnbsame.com/knowledge-capital) or the website of Gallup Pakistan (Private) Limited
(www.gallup.com.pk).
Q2 FY 2023-24 I Report prepared by D&B Pakistan in collaboration with Gallup Pakistan I 02

Gallup Pakistan
GALLUP PAKISTAN, THE PAKISTANI AFFILIATE OF GALLUP INTERNATIONAL, IS A LEADING
SURVEY RESEARCH AGENCY AND AN EMERGING SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH LAB IN PAKISTAN.
GALLUP PAKISTAN IS A SPECIALIST IN INDEPENDENT THIRD-PARTY EVALUATION AND RATINGS
Gallup Pakistan Services

Gallup Pakistan is operating in Pakistan since 1980, thus bringing in more than 40 years of
professional experience. Gallup Pakistan offers its expertise in 6 fields of social and market
research.
Behavioral & Impact Third Party Evaluations Management Market Exploration & Market Research
Attitudinal Studies Assessment Consulting Assessment Studies Studies
Surveys
Financial Inclusion Research
Media Research
Gallup Pakistan
Programs ICT & Telecom Research
With decades of experience in
the field of public polling and
market research, Gallup Healthcare Research
Pakistan is currently leading 7
programs from financial
inclusion to media research Behavioral Science Lab
and behavioural mapping.
Gallup History Project
Social and Political Research

Acknowledgements
THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (CCI) IS A HIGHLY VALUED QUARTERLY PUBLICATION

THAT RECEIVES SIGNIFICANT ATTENTION FROM MEDIA NETWORKS AND LEADING NEWS
OUTLETS. IT IS PROMINENTLY FEATURED IN POPULAR NEWS SOURCES SUCH AS DAWN,
BUSINESS RECORDER, AND DAILY TIMES, WHICH REFLECTS ITS IMPORTANCE IN THE BUSINESS
AND ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE OF THE COUNTRY

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a This report compares Consumer Confidence in
survey that measures consumer sentiments about Q2 FY2023-24 vis-à-vis Consumer Confidence in
the country’s economic condition, household Q1 FY2023-24 (Q-o-Q comparison).
financial situation, job prospects, and personal
finances. For more information on past CCI publications please
visit: D&B Pakistan Knowledge Capital
The survey captures consumers’ responses
related to the Current Situation as well as their
Future Expectations.
Index and Net Indicator (NI) Interpretation

The Index and Net Indicator (NI) scores are used to indicate the level of Optimism or
Pessimism with respect to specific questions, or as a composite index.
The index ranges from 0 to

200 points
Above 125 Under 75

Extremely Optimistic Extremely Pessimistic
101-125 75-99
Optimistic Pessimistic
100
Neutral
Scores between 99 to 0 indicate decreasing levels of pessimism.
Scores between 101 to 200 indicate increasing levels of optimism.
Note: please refer to pages 26 to 28 for the detailed methodology.
The Index and NI interpretation applies to rounded-off numbers.

Glossary
Consumers
Respondents that have participated in the Consumer Confidence survey.
Net Indicator (NI)

A composite score is computed for each index parameter by assigning weights to responses
received from consumers.
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI - Overall)

This is an aggregate index used to determine overall optimism/ pessimism amongst consumers in
Pakistan. The CCI is an average of the Current Consumer Confidence Index (CCI - Current) and
Future Consumer Confidence Index (CCI - Future).
Current Consumer Confidence Index (CCI - Current)

An index that indicates consumer feedback about current economic conditions (vis-a-vis last 6
months) across four index parameters, i.e., Household Financial Situation, Country’s Economic
Conditions, Unemployment, and Household Savings.
Future Consumer Confidence Index (CCI - Future)

An index that indicates consumer outlook for the next 6 months (compared to the months in
which the survey was conducted), across four index parameters, i.e., Household Financial
Situation, Country’s Economic Conditions, Unemployment, and Household Savings.
Relative Optimism (Future to Current)

A measure of the CCI – Future and CCI – Current. It represents the Future optimism in relation to
Current optimism in the mind of consumers in Pakistan. The result is a score in percentage terms
allowing for comparison across quarters. Typically, people are predisposed to be more optimistic
about the Future (relative to Current situation), thus this ratio has always been over 100%.
Index Parameter
The individual constituent of each of the indices captures the current or future economic
condition. There are four parameters captured as part of the survey and have been explained in
the methodology section of this report.
Province
A province is an administrative territory that is governed by its own Government. In Pakistan,
there are four provinces i.e., Balochistan, Punjab, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK).

Report Flow
1
Executive Summary 9
2
Consumer Confidence Index 12
3
Price Situation & Household Income 20
4
Methodology 25
5
Annexure 29

03
Executive Summary
Report prepared by D&B Pakistan in collaboration with Gallup Pakistan I 03

Key Findings: Q2 FY2023-24 Survey
In Q2 FY2023-24, the Overall Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is 79.7 points, which indicates
a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.9%.
CCI Last Eight Quarters (Q3 FY2021 – Q2 FY2023-24)

100.7
92.4 95.6 95.9
81.4
79.6 80.1
85.1 68.5
77 79.2 79.7
70.8
65.1 65.8
53.2
60.2 61.5 69.6 62.7 63.6
50.6 51.6
37.9
Q3 FY2021 Q4 FY2021 Q1 FY2022 Q2 FY2022 Q3 FY2022 Q4 FY2022 Q1 FY2023 Q2 FY2023
Current Overall Future
This increase indicates improved consumer Consumers were relatively more optimistic
sentiments. about the current state of their household
situation and economy in general, as well as
This quarter’s index is the highest it has been more optimistic about the future prospects.
in the last five quarters.
Relative Optimism – Future to Current*

181%
157% 155%
150% 152% 151%
145%
135%
Q3 FY2021 Q4 FY2021 Q1 FY2022 Q2 FY2022 Q3 FY2022 Q4 FY2022 Q1 FY2023 Q2 FY2023
The Relative Optimism in CCI between the future versus the current situation is about 151%,
the fifth highest measurement in the last 7 quarters.
Note: *This number now reflects a percentage instead of a percentage increase as earlier.

Δ IN OVERALL CCI Δ IN CCI COMPONENTS (CURRENT & FUTURE)
NI = 79.7 CURRENT OPTIMISM FUTURE OPTIMISM

CHANGE CHANGE
13.9%
NI = 65.8
23.3% 19.7%
Q3
Q12021 Q4 2021
Q2
FY2023-24 FY2023-24
Overall, Consumers reported an improvement in the
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) increased Q- Current outlook in this survey versus the previous survey
o-Q, indicating relative improvement in (this has improved from 51.6 to 63.6, thus an increase by
sentiments. 23.3%). A similar trend has been observed for Future
optimism.
Increase in the overall CCI can be attributed to The results for prices of daily essentials indicated
better outlook across all parameters, as seen that inflation is still high but has eased in terms of
below. All parameters showed improvement in severity. The findings on expectation of future
consumer confidence. household income entail slight improvement.
Current Outlook on Financial Current Outlook on Economic Rising prices and Household
Situation and Household Situation and Unemployment Income displayed strong
Savings parameters increased parameters increased from 51.5 improvement, growing from 24.3
from 71.3 to 85.3 and from 44.5 to 69.1 and decreased from 39.0 to 64.1 and from 100.2 to 106.4
to 56.8 respectively. to 43.0 respectively. respectively.
Index / Net Indicator (NI) Interpretation: Under 75 - extremely pessimistic, 75 to 99 – pessimistic, 100 – Neutral, 101 to 125 – optimistic and
125 above - extremely optimistic

Consumer Confidence Index

Consumers displayed relatively less pessimism regarding Future Expectations (NI = 95.9)
compared to Current Situation (NI = 63.6).
Current Quarter: Q2 FY2023-24 Survey

Overall CCI increased by 21.1% Q-o-Q to 79.7
63.6 in Q2 FY2023-24. This could be attributed to
Current lower inflation. Also, efforts of federal
79.7 government in reducing smuggling of goods,
regulating the foreign exchange market, and
Overall CCI reforming the power sector has improved
95.9 expectations amongst the business
Future community. The index is in line with the
overall CCI observed same time last year.
Survey conducted during: November - 23
Previous Quarter: Q1 FY2023-24 Survey

Overall CCI had increased by 23.7% Q-o-Q to
51.6 65.8 in Q1 FY2023-24.
Current
65.8
Overall CCI
80.1
Future
Survey conducted during: July - 23
Previous Year: Q2 FY2022-23 Survey

Overall CCI had decreased by 6.9% Q-o-Q to
79.2 in Q2 FY2022-23. The decrease was
62.7
Current attributable to political instability paired with
79.2 disastrous floods across the country which
caused inflation to soar. The index remained in
Overall CCI the pessimistic zone.
95.6
Future
Survey conducted during: August - 22
Index / Net Indicator (NI) Interpretation: Under 75 - extremely pessimistic, 75 to 99 – pessimistic, 100 – Neutral, 101 to 125 – optimistic and 125
above - extremely optimistic

Key Takeaways
Consumers are pessimistic about Consumers are pessimistic regarding their

the current macroeconomic household’s financial situation and the
situation country’s economic situation. The current Net
Indicators are 85.3 and 69.1 respectively.
Unemployment Situation – Consumers remained pessimistic in relation to

improvement in Net Indicator unemployment. The Net Indicator for the
by 20.2% Unemployment Situation moved from 53.3 to
64.1.
Household Savings – Consumers remain pessimistic in terms of

improvement in Net Indicator Household Savings, albeit with significant
by 22.2% improvement. The Net Indicator for the
parameter moved from 59.1 to 72.2.
IMPROVED OUTLOOK VERSUS PREVIOUS QUARTER FOR ALL OF THE RELEVANT PARAMETERS
OUTLINED BELOW
NI Q1 FY2023- Q2 FY2023- % Change

24 24
Overall 83.2 97.1 13.9%
Current 71.3 85.3 14.0%
Household Financial Situation Future 95.0 108.9 13.9%

24 24
Overall 67.8 85.5 17.7%
Current 51.5 69.1 17.6%
Country’s Economic Situation Future 84.1 101.8 17.7%

24 24
Overall 53.3 64.1 10.8%
Current 39.0 43.0 4.0%
Unemployment Situation Future 67.7 85.2 17.5%

24 24
Overall 59.1 72.2 13.1%
Current 44.5 56.8 12.3%
Household Savings Future 73.6 87.5 13.9%
PERCEPTIONS REGARDING HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL SITUATION CHANGED FOR
THE BETTER
This parameter concerns buying power of a household. Consumers Surveys Overall NI*
were optimistic regarding their future household financial
situation, which increased by 13.9% Q-o-Q. 58% of the respondents Q1 FY2023-24 83.2
indicated that their household financial situation is expected to
Q2 FY2023-24 97.1
improve or stay the same in future, this number was 50% in Q1
FY2023-24.
Current: How is your household’s financial situation in Future: What do you expect your household’s financial situation
comparison to last 6 months? to be in next 6 months?
10% 11%
23% 18%
15% 13%
34% 18%
25%
38%
19%
15% 21%
13%
33%
21% 27% 22%
4% 5% 7% 6%
NI Q1 FY2023-24: 71.3 NI Q2 FY2023-24: 85.3 NI Q1 FY2023-24: 95.0 NI Q2 FY2023-24: 108.9
SENTIMENTS REGARDING THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC SITUATION INCREASED

ACROSS BOTH THE CURRENT SITUATION AND FUTURE EXPECTATIONS
Surveys Overall NI*

This parameter concerns the economic output and stability of the
country. The sentiments improved by 17.7% Q-o-Q. 55% expect Q1 FY2023-24 67.8
country’s future economic situation to improve or remain the
same, this number was 44% in the previous quarter. Q2 FY2023-24 85.5
Current: In your opinion, how would you describe the

Future: In your opinion, what do you expect
current economic situation in Pakistan in comparison to last
Pakistan’s economic situation to be in next 6
6 months?
months?
2% 2%
8% 8%
33% 27% 23% 17%
20%
24%
35%
40% 16%
18%
11%
10% 33%
22% 21%
2% 14% 3% 5% 5%
Will be better a lot Will be better No change Will be Worse Will be Worse a lot Don’t Know
CONSUMER CONCERNS AROUND UNEMPLOYMENT HAVE AMELIORATED
This parameter relates to sentiments regarding employment Surveys Overall NI

opportunities. The responses remained in the ‘extremely pessimistic’
range; however, a significant improvement could be seen. 47% Q1 FY2023-24 53.3
respondents highlighted that they expect unemployment to rise in
Q2 FY2023-24 64.1
the next six months, decreasing from 59% in Q1 FY2023-24.
Current: In your opinion, in comparison to last 6-months, Future: In your opinion, in next 6 months, unemployment in
unemployment in Pakistan is …..? Pakistan will be….?
1% 1%
7% 7%
40% 27% 23%

44%
23%
31%
37% 39% 21%
16%
8% 8% 20%
2% 15% 6%
8% 3% 8% 3%
SENTIMENTS REGARDING OVERALL HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS IMPROVED
Surveys Overall NI
This parameter relates to household savings (or liquid assets).
Sentiments (Net Indicator) regarding household savings noted an Q1 FY2023-24 59.1
increase of 13.1%. 49% respondents expect household savings to
increase or remain same in the next six months. Q2 FY2023-24 72.2
Current: Do you think, in comparison to last 6 months, your Future: Do you expect your household savings to increase,
household savings increased, decreased or remained the decrease or remain the same in next 6 months?
same?
7% 8%
1% 1%
34% 30% 23%

41%
20%
22%
31%
33% 25%
23%
25%
2% 17% 21%
1% 3% 15%
4%
6% 8%
Will be better a lot Will be better No change Will be Worse Will be Worse a lot Don’t Know
ALL PROVINCES DISPLAYED OVERALL RELATIVELY MORE OPSTIMISTIC SENTIMENTS
REGARDING CURRENT AND FUTURE

24 24
Overall 67.3 83.1 15.8%
Current 53.3 66.8 13.5%
Punjab Future 81.3 99.4 18.1%

n = 824

24 24
Overall 67.6 78.3 10.7%
Current 53.7 62.5 8.8%
Sindh Future 81.4 94.2 12.8%

n = 237

24 24
Overall 59.8 72.8 13.0%
Current 42.0 56.2 14.2%

KPK
n = 196 Future 77.7 89.4 11.7%

24 24
Overall 55.5 63.6 8.1%
Current 45.2 49.0 3.8%
Balochistan Future 65.7 78.2 12.5%

n = 146
While the overall sample is significant for the survey across the country, the differences across the Provinces seen in the above table should be
considered as relative and not concluded statistically.
CONSUMERS IN BOTH URBAN AND RURAL AREAS INDICATE BETTER SENTIMENTS VIS-À-VIS
PREVIOUS QUARTER.

24 24
Overall 64.7 78.0 13.3%
Current 50.8 62.2 11.4%
Urban Future 78.5 93.8 15.3%

n = 831

24 24
Overall 67.2 82.4 15.2%
Current 52.4 65.8 13.4%
Rural Future 81.9 99.1 17.2%

n = 572

24 24
Overall 66.9 80.7 13.8%
Current 52.8 64.5 11.7%

Male
n = 1213 Future 81.0 96.9 15.9%

24 24
Overall 60.0 73.6 13.6%
Current 45.0 57.7 12.7%

Female
n = 190 Future 75.1 89.4 14.3%
While the overall sample is significant for the survey across the country, the differences across Gender seen in the above table should be considered
as relative and not concluded statistically. The differences across Rural and Urban sentiments can be considered as statistically significant.
THERE WERE IMPROVEMENTS IN SENTIMENT AMONGST CONSUMERS ACROSS ALL AGE
GROUPS FOR CURRENT AS WELL AS FUTURE OUTLOOK; THE AGE GROUP OF BELOW 30 YEARS
DISPLAYED HIGHER OPTIMISM THAN THE OTHER GROUPS
NI Q1 FY2023- Q2 FY2023-
% Change
24 24
Overall 69.5 85.5 16.0%
Current 56.8 71.6 14.8%

Below 30 years
n = 480
Future 82.2 99.4 17.2%
NI Q1 FY2023- Q2 FY2023-
% Change
24 24
Overall 63.9 76.8 12.9%
Current 49.3 59.6 10.3%
30 to 49 years Future 78.5 94.0 15.5%

n = 708
NI Q1 FY2023- Q2 FY2023-
% Change
24 24
Overall 63.0 76.3 13.3%
Current 46.1 58.6 12.5%

50 years and above
n = 215 Future 79.9 94.1 14.2%
While the overall sample is significant for the survey across the country, the differences across Age groups seen in the above table should be
considered as relative and not concluded statistically.
Price Situation & Household
Income

THE NET INDICATOR FOR PRICE SITUATION STANDS AT 64.1 WHICH IS THE HIGHEST
EVER RECORDED SINCE THE CCI HAS BEEN LAUNCHED IN PAKISTAN. IT IS MORE
THAN DOUBLE THAN THE PREVIOUS HIGH SCORE OF 28.1 (Q1 FY2022-23)
We live in an economic paradigm where prices increase over time as inflation is positive.
However, this is not very well accepted commonly by consumers around the world, especially
so in Pakistan. Whenever a survey of this nature is conducted, concerns about rising prices are
to be expected and, thus, the Net Indicator is generally below 100.
Net Indicator
1% (Price Situation)
Q1 FY2023-24 6% 4% 19% 69% 1% 24.3
Q2 FY2023-24 1% 23% 11% 24% 39% 1% 64.1
Much Cheaper Cheaper Unchanged Expensive Very Expensive Don’t Know
63% of consumers said that daily essentials have become expensive/very expensive in last six
months compared to 87% in Q1 FY2023-24.
Net Indicator Under 30 yrs. 30-49 yrs. Above 50 yrs.
Q1 FY2023-24 25.5 25.5 18.3
Q2 FY2023-24 65.3 61.3 70.2
All age groups are relatively less concerned about rising prices of daily essentials.
Net Indicator Punjab Sindh KPK Balochistan
Q1 FY2023-24 26.6 24.0 18.0 15.7
Q2 FY2023-24 71.8 56.3 56.5 27.2
Respondents across provinces displayed considerably lower pessimism.

Net Indicator Male Female
Q1 FY2023-24 23.8 27.3
Q2 FY2023-24 66.2 51.4
Male and Female respondents' sentiments were better as compared to last quarter.
Net Indicator Urban Rural
Q1 FY2023-24 25.2 23.3
Q2 FY2023-24 61.8 67.6
Urban and Rural consumers are less concerned about increase in prices; however, these concerns are still in the
extremely pessimistic range.
CONSUMERS WERE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT GROWTH IN THEIR HOUSEHOLD

INCOME
This parameter highlights the expected change in the consumers’ household Net Indicator
income in the coming year when compared to the previous year.
Q1 FY2023-24 5% 22% 29% 28% 8% 8% 100.2
Q2 FY2023-24 6% 24% 32% 14% 14% 10% 106.4
Increase a lot Increase Stay the same Decrease Decrease a lot Don’t Know
61% of respondents expected their income levels to stay the same or increase in the next year
vis-à-vis 56% in the last quarter. Thus, the Net Indicator has turned positive and reached 106.4.

Net Indicator Under 30 yrs. 30 - 49 yrs. Above 50 yrs.
Q1 FY2023-24 101.8 98.7 101.0
Q2 FY2023-24 110.6 104.6 102.9
All age groups are now in the optimistic zone.
Net Indicator Punjab Sindh KPK Balochistan
Q1 FY2023-24 99.3 94.4 110.1 113.1
Q2 FY2023-24 109.1 101.7 105.9 98.5

Consumers across all provinces exhibited optimism except for Balochistan. KPK’s consumers remain optimistic
even though there is a marginal drop in the level of optimism.
Net Indicator Male Female
Q1 FY2023-24 99.9 101.5
Q2 FY2023-24 107.4 100.5

Male consumers are relatively more optimistic than Female consumers.
Net Indicator Urban Rural
Q1 FY2023-24 96.2 104.7
Q2 FY2023-24 101.5 114.1

Both Urban and Rural consumers showed significantly higher optimism than the previous quarter. Optimism in
Rural consumers is significantly higher than Urban consumers.
Methodology

Q2 FY2023-24 SURVEY: A TELEPHONIC SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED AMONG 1,403
RESPONDENTS BY A TEAM OF TRAINED PROFESSIONALS FROM GALLUP PAKISTAN
Sample Size: 1,403 2.6% Error Margin at Data Collection Period:

95% Confidence level October 2023
Sample Survey Key Break-ups
Male Female Below 30 30 to 49 50 years &

86% 14% years years above
34% 51% 15%
Urban Rural
59% 41%
Sample Size Distribution by Province
Sindh Punjab Balochistan KPK

17% 59% 10% 14%
Sample size of 1,403 respondents result in a margin of error of 2.6%, hence the sample size is representative of
population.
THE MARGIN OF ERROR DECREASES WITH INCREASE IN SAMPLE SIZE BUT AT A MUCH LOWER
PACE. A SAMPLE SIZE OF 1,200 IS STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT. HENCE, OUR SAMPLE SIZE OF
1,403 IS SUFFICIENTLY ACCURATE
Relationship between Sample Size and Margin of Error
8.0% Sample Margin of

Size (n) Error (M.E.)
7.0%
200 7.1%
6.0%
Diminishing marginal returns 400 5.0%
Margin of Error
5.0% with increasing sample size 700 3.8%

4.0%
1,000 3.2%
3.0% 1,200 2.9%
2.0% 1,500 2.6%
1.0%
2,000 2.2%
3,000 1.8%
0.0%
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 4,000 1.6%
Sample Size
5,000 1.4%
Observations: sample size of 1,200 results in a margin of

• A four times increase in sample size (from error of 2.8%, which is below 3%, the
1,000 to 4,000) will reduce error margin by accepted norm for statistical research
only 1.6% (from 3.2% to 1.6%). accuracy. A Sample of 1,403 for this survey is
• The most substantial decrease in margin of sufficient to represent feedback from across
error is between samples sizes of 200 and the Nation.
1,200
• The margin of error does not substantially Note: For further details on statistical concepts see
decrease at sample sizes above 1,500 page 32
(since it is already below 3%).
With Pakistan's population of ~240 Mn, a
Note:
In this publication, some numbers for Q1 FY2023-24 have been updated. While the adjustments made
were minor, we encourage stakeholders to refer to the figures presented in this report for future
considerations. These updates are intended to maintain clarity and consistency in our records.

THIS SURVEY HAS BEEN WEIGHTED USING ‘POST-STRATIFICATION WEIGHTS’
Weighting Approach
• A weighting approach has been used for the CCI to make the
sample statistically representative of the population.
• The weights have been applied based on Provinces of
Residence (Sindh, Punjab, KPK or Balochistan)
Sindh KPK
• The assignment of a weight to each survey respondent is such
that: demographics that are under-represented (when
compared to the actual population proportion) are assigned a
weight larger than 1, and those in over-represented groups are
assigned a weight smaller than 1.
Punjab Balochistan
FOR ESTIMATING NET INDICATOR, WEIGHTS HAVE BEEN ASSIGNED TO EACH RESPONSE
ASYMMETRICALLY TO ACCOUNT FOR RESPONDENT’S TENDENCY TO UNDER-WEIGH
POSITIVE RESPONSES
Response Weighting
1.00
0.75
0.25
Response
Weights 0.00
(0.75)
(1.00)
Response Same as
Much Better Better Worse Much worse Don’t Know
Categories Before
Net
1 + Σ (Weighted Responses)
Indicator
Net indicator is a composite score computed on the weights indicated above. It is

for each index parameter by assigning weights converted into an index by adding 100 to the
to responses received from consumers. For weighted average score. The index will thus
each question asked during the survey, the range from 0 to 200.
respondent has six options as shown above.
Neutral responses (Same as before) are Index / Net Indicator (NI) Interpretation: Under 75 -
extremely pessimistic, 75 to 100 – pessimistic, 100 to 125 –
assigned a weight of 0.25 due to respondent's optimistic and 125 & above - extremely optimistic
tendency to under-weigh positive responses.
Net Indicator is computed by taking a
weighted average sum of the responses based

Appendix

A SAMPLE IS A COLLECTION OF DATA FROM A SUBSET OF THE POPULATION. MARGIN OF
ERROR DETERMINES THE ACCURACY OF ESTIMATION ABOUT POPULATION PARAMETER
FROM SAMPLE SURVEY
Sample Survey Key Concepts Confidence Interval (CI)

• It is a probability that a parameter will fall
Population, Sampling Frame and Sample between a pair of values around the
mean.
Population: The entire group of individuals or
objects that we wish to know something Formula: CI = x̄ ± z * σ / (√n)
about (x̄ = sample mean, z = confidence level value,
σ =sample standard deviation)
Sample (n): Those individuals or objects who Observation: Mostly constructed using
provide the data to be collected. confidence levels of 95% or 99%.
Sampling Frame: It is a list of all those within If a survey is conducted using an unbiased
a population who can be sampled. Having methodology, then the margin of error tells us
sampling frame close to population avoids directly about the accuracy of the survey at
selection bias. estimating a population parameter.
Relationship between Population, Sampling Frame

and Sample (Process of creating a sample)
• Want to know about a population
• Only really have access to a sampling frame to
draw an intended sample from
• Get observations only from the
actual sample.
Margin of Error (ME)

• It measures the reliability of the percent or
other estimate based on the survey data
• The margin of error depends directly on the
square root of the size of the sample.
Formula: ME = 1 / √n
Rule of Thumb: The larger the sample size (n)
the smaller the margin of error; the size of
the population does not affect the margin of
error

THIS REPORT HAS BEEN DEVELOPED TO ASSESS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE ACROSS PAKISTAN.
MULTIPLE STAKEHOLDERS CAN USE THIS REPORT FOR STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING.
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI Index) is a The Consumer Confidence Survey measures the
globally recognized instrument that helps level of optimism that consumers have about
understand the sentiments and outlook of the household financial situation, country’s economic
common man. condition, job prospects, personal finances and
spending intentions.
THIS REPORT COMPARES CHANGES IN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE ACROSS TWO QUARTERS;

FIRST QUARTER OF 2023 (Q1 FY2023-24) AND THE CURRENT QUARTER (Q2 FY2023-24)
Q1 FY2023-24 Q2 FY2023-24
Number of Respondents 1,179 1,403
Time period of Survey July 23 October 23
Mode of Survey Interviews Telephonic Telephonic
ANALYIS FRAMEWORK
Consumer response related to Current Situation and Future Expectations
Current Future
Past 6 Months sentiment from Next 6 Months outlook from
month of survey month of survey
Q. How would you describe the Q. What do you expect the situation
current situation in comparison to 6 to be 6 months from now?
months ago?
Quarterly Consumer Confidence Surveys
Q1 FY2023-24 Survey Q2 FY2023-24 Survey
Different colors are used to indicate the quarterly Surveys

For each question asked during the survey, the respondents had multiple options: much better, better, same, worse, much worse and
don’t know

IN Q2 FY2023-24 SURVEY, 10 QUESTIONS WERE ASKED ON THREE TOPICS
Consumer Confidence
Household Savings
Household Financial Situation Current:
Current: Q7. Do you think, in comparison to last 6
Q1. How is your household’s financial months, your household savings increased,
situation in comparison to last 6 months? decreased or remained the same?
Future: Future:
Q2. What do you expect your household’s Q8. Do you expect your household savings to
financial situation to be in next 6 months? increase, decrease or remain the same in
next 6 months?
Country’s Economic Condition
Current: Prices
Q3. In your opinion, how would you describe
the current economic situation in Pakistan in Outlook on food prices:
comparison to last 6 months? Current:
Q9. In your opinion, in comparison to last six
Future: months, prices of daily essentials are…?
Q4. In your opinion, what do you expect
Pakistan’s economic situation to be in next 6 Household Income
months?
Outlook on household income:
Unemployment Future:
Current: Q10. What change do you expect in your
Q5. In your opinion, in comparison to last 6- household income in the next year compared
months, unemployment in Pakistan is …..? to the last year?
Future:
Q6. In your opinion, in next 6 months,
unemployment in Pakistan will be….?

D&B Pakistan (Private) Limited
www.dnbpk.com
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS GROUP

Niran Rehman (Chief Business Officer)
eag@dnbpk.com
Global HQ (US)
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
103 JFK Parkway, Short Hills, NJ 07078, USA
Regional HQ (UAE)
Dun & Bradstreet South Asia Middle East Ltd.
DIFC, PO Box 506511, Dubai, UAE
Head Office (Pakistan)

D&B Pakistan (Private) Limited
Building No: 33-C/II, Lane 6, Ittehad Commercial,
DHA Phase 6, Karachi, Pakistan
T +92 3 1111 32 725
Lahore Office
Vogue Tower 3rd floor, Block C2, Gulberg 3
MM Alam Road, Lahore, Pakistan
Islamabad Office
Plot 94, Street 7, Sector I-10/3
Islamabad, Pakistan
Gallup Pakistan
www.gallup.com.pk
Bilal I. Gilani (Executive Director)

caf@gallup.com.pk
Pakistan
4th floor, Khyber Plaza, Fazal e Haq Rd, Blue Area,
Islamabad, Pakistan
T +92 (51) 265 5630

Disclaimer
This material is confidential and proprietary to Dun & Bradstreet Pakistan (Private)
Limited (referred to as ‘D&B’) and Gallup Pakistan. The material may not be copied or
otherwise reproduced, repackaged, further transmitted, transferred, disseminated,
redistributed or resold, or stored for subsequent use for any such purpose, in whole or in
part, in any form or any manner or by any means whatsoever, by any person without
express authorization of D&B and/or Gallup Pakistan.
All information contained herein is obtained through surveys conducted from

respondents. Although reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information
herein is true, such information is provided ‘as is’ without any warranty of any kind and
D&B and Gallup Pakistan, in particular, makes no representation or warranty, express or
implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of any such information. All
information contained herein must be construed solely as statements of opinion by
respondents and D&B and/or Gallup Pakistan shall not be liable for any loss incurred by
users from any use of this report or its contents.
Please visit Dun & Bradstreet’s website www.dnbsame.com for full disclaimer regarding privacy policy and
legal information.
Please visit Gallup Pakistan’s website www.gallup.com.pk for full disclaimer regarding international
affiliations and other matters.

DB GP Report Q2FY2023-24 17-January-2024

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

DB GP Report Q2FY2023-24 17-January-2024

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

DB GP Report Q2FY2023-24 17-January-2024

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

ISSUE NO.

D&B - Solutions & Services

Risk Management Solutions D&B Consulting Financial Technology Solutions

Economic Analysis Group Learning Solutions

Q2 FY2023-24 I Report prepared by D&B Pakistan in collaboration with Gallup Pakistan I 03

Q2 FY 2023-24 I Report prepared by D&B Pakistan in collaboration with Gallup Pakistan I 02

Gallup Pakistan Services

Financial Inclusion Research

Gallup History Project

Social and Political Research

Q2 FY2023-24 I Report prepared by D&B Pakistan in collaboration with Gallup Pakistan I 03

THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (CCI) IS A HIGHLY VALUED QUARTERLY PUBLICATION

Q2 FY2023-24 I Report prepared by D&B Pakistan in collaboration with Gallup Pakistan I 05

Index and Net Indicator (NI) Interpretation

The index ranges from 0 to

Above 125 Under 75

Q2 FY2023-24 I Report prepared by D&B Pakistan in collaboration with Gallup Pakistan I 06

Net Indicator (NI)

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI - Overall)

Current Consumer Confidence Index (CCI - Current)

Future Consumer Confidence Index (CCI - Future)

Relative Optimism (Future to Current)

Q2 FY2023-24 I Report prepared by D&B Pakistan in collaboration with Gallup Pakistan I 07

Q2 FY2023-24 I Report prepared by D&B Pakistan in collaboration with Gallup Pakistan I 08

Report prepared by D&B Pakistan in collaboration with Gallup Pakistan I 03

CCI Last Eight Quarters (Q3 FY2021 – Q2 FY2023-24)

Q3 FY2021 Q4 FY2021 Q1 FY2022 Q2 FY2022 Q3 FY2022 Q4 FY2022 Q1 FY2023 Q2 FY2023

Current Overall Future

Relative Optimism – Future to Current*

Q3 FY2021 Q4 FY2021 Q1 FY2022 Q2 FY2022 Q3 FY2022 Q4 FY2022 Q1 FY2023 Q2 FY2023

Q2 FY2023-24 I Report prepared by D&B Pakistan in collaboration with Gallup Pakistan I 10

NI = 79.7 CURRENT OPTIMISM FUTURE OPTIMISM

Q2 FY2023-24 I Report prepared by D&B Pakistan in collaboration with Gallup Pakistan I 11

Report prepared by D&B Pakistan in collaboration with Gallup Pakistan I 03

Current Quarter: Q2 FY2023-24 Survey

Previous Quarter: Q1 FY2023-24 Survey

Survey conducted during: July - 23

Previous Year: Q2 FY2022-23 Survey

Survey conducted during: August - 22

Q2 FY2023-24 I Report prepared by D&B Pakistan in collaboration with Gallup Pakistan I 13

Consumers are pessimistic about Consumers are pessimistic regarding their

Unemployment Situation – Consumers remained pessimistic in relation to

Household Savings – Consumers remain pessimistic in terms of

NI Q1 FY2023- Q2 FY2023- % Change

Overall 83.2 97.1 13.9%

Current 71.3 85.3 14.0%

Household Financial Situation Future 95.0 108.9 13.9%

NI Q1 FY2023- Q2 FY2023- % Change

Overall 67.8 85.5 17.7%

Current 51.5 69.1 17.6%

Country’s Economic Situation Future 84.1 101.8 17.7%

NI Q1 FY2023- Q2 FY2023- % Change

Overall 53.3 64.1 10.8%

Current 39.0 43.0 4.0%

Unemployment Situation Future 67.7 85.2 17.5%

NI Q1 FY2023- Q2 FY2023- % Change

Overall 59.1 72.2 13.1%

Current 44.5 56.8 12.3%

Household Savings Future 73.6 87.5 13.9%