To Calculate The Likely Power Output

To calculate the likely power output from a given wind turbine, it is necessary to characterize the
wind energy available in a planned wind turbine farm location.

We will guide you to be able to classify a data set from a long series of measurements
for further statistical analysis, build a wind speed probability density function,
also called PDF from the data set, and model this data using a Weibull or a Rayleigh distribution.
Some aspects of wind variability are predictable. Other aspects such as

intermittent wind gusts are much less so.
The variability of wind speed is important to characterize the wind power.

Statistical analysis will be necessary as the average wind speed in a location only paints half of
the picture, the full distribution of wind speed values might be necessary.
A probability density function is a function that describes the relative likelihood for
a random variable to take on a given value. In our case, the random variable is the wind speed.
To compute the probability density function of a time series of wind speed values,
we first compute the frequency distribution function. First, we will organize the data to convert
our measurements into a sample data space. Then we select a significant Delta T for our study,
typically 10 minutes and average the wind values for each Delta T, here the point in red.
Doing so, we will obtain N discrete wind averaged values.
Those N averaged values will be our starting sample space for statistical analysis.
Second, we will select the statistical classes V_i for each interval, that will necessarily be
the mean value of the interval itself, defining as well the width interval Delta V.
This way we will obtain M intervals defined by the formula on the screen.
On our screen example, we have chosen a one meter per second ranging from 0-7 meter per
second. The defined classes are the natural numbers 0, 1, 2, etc.
A given class of five meter per second will represent values from 4.5-5.5 meter per second.
The last step is counting the total number of occurrences for each interval.
The possible outcomes can now be classified for statistical analysis. For example, in a table,
the organized data table will look like this one, with the intervals on the 1st column, the statistical
classes on the 2nd column, and the number of currencies on the 3rd column.
On the 4th column, we will include the absolute frequency defined as the number of occurrences
in each class divided by the total number of outcomes. While the absolute frequencies ensemble
gives us the frequency distribution, the normalized frequency distribution, or absolute frequency,
defines the probability density function.
In this case, the discrete probability density function or PDF.
Histograms as in this figure is a usual graphical representation of this data.
As you can see in the abscissa axis, the velocity classes or the possible outcomes
are represented and the probability outcome is represented by the ordinate axis. The zero wind
speed values are excluded from the distribution. The first-class is the one meter per second
mean value interval.
For this example, the probability to have a wind speed ranging between 4.5-5.5 meter per
second is about five percent.
Weibull
Una K màs alta, shape parameter, implica una velocidad de viento media más alta. The higher
value k, the higher median wind speed. It settles the shape of our function. Locations with lots of
low wind speed as well as some very strong winds k<2 and locations with consistent wind speed
around de median would have a k of 3.
C is known as scale parameter and have dimension of m/s.

The Rayleigh distribution is a particular case of Weibull distribution with shape parameter k
equals 2. This is convenient as in most locations around the world, the value of k is
approximately two. This reduces the expression of the probability density function to one single
parameter.
La estimaciòn de estos parámetros se encuentra en el video Weibull law.
According to the Betz, the power coefficient reaches a maximum value around 0.6 when a is
equal to 1/3. Any of these non ideal effects will reduce the energy available in the incoming freed,
lowering the overall efficiency.

To Calculate The Likely Power Output

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To calculate the likely power output from a given wind turbine, it is necessary to characterize the

wind energy available in a planned wind turbine farm location.

Some aspects of wind variability are predictable. Other aspects such as

The variability of wind speed is important to characterize the wind power.

In this case, the discrete probability density function or PDF.

Histograms as in this figure is a usual graphical representation of this data.

C is known as scale parameter and have dimension of m/s.

La estimaciòn de estos parámetros se encuentra en el video Weibull law.

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