Exchange prices in London

and New York continue to set

new records as prices rally.

Arrivals in ports in West Africa

have fallen further behind, now
33% down y-o-y.

Sources continue to tell Mintec

that recent rains have been
conducive to pod development
over the coming months.
However, they do not
anticipate a respite to weather-
related fears until the end of
the dry season, which is still
months away.

Cocoa product prices have

risen in line with the futures
prices, with cocoa butter prices
crossing €9,000/mt less than a
month after they broke
through €8,000/mt.

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 • Nearby ICE London Cocoa Futures
continue to set new highs, rallying to a
close of £3,586/mt on 29th November

• Despite the stronger GBP/USD rate,

concerns about the low arrivals in ports
figures – and thus the total size of the
2023-24 crop – continue to support a
rally

• Arrivals in ports have fallen to 33% lower

year-on-year. With buyers being forced
into the market, the producer net short
position in London has changed little.
According to sources, buying activity is
Front month ICE London Cocoa bean Forward curve
likely to continue on dips, providing very
Source: Mintec Analytics little relief to continued increases
Forward curve as of 29th November
 • With the US Dollar still suffering
widespread weakness throughout
November, the front month New York
contract rallied over 15% month-on-
month

• In both markets – and particularly in New

York – the forward curve continues to
backwardate even further, with 2025
contracts trading at even lower levels
than they were at the end of October

• Producers seem to be locked in a tug of

war, with buyers needing to take
additional cover, prompting producers to
Front month ICE NY cocoa bean Forward curve
sell into the highs, which in turn provides
dips for additional buying action
Source: Mintec Analytics
Forward curve as of 29th November
• With prices continuing to set new records, several • A consistent theme over much of 2023 has been the
sources told Mintec that although recent rains still deferred and ‘hand-to-mouth’ buying of
have the potential to boost the current crop, the manufacturers and other end users as they wait for
deeply negative y-o-y port arrivals have spooked the dips to provide buying opportunities. Much of the
market players hoping for a respite to the year-long commentary throughout the year is that the industry
rally had reasonable cover throughout the calendar year
2023 but remained largely uncovered for 2024,
• One trader noted, “as much as I suspect the harvest preferring to sit out the rallies and wait for a
won’t be as low as port arrivals currently suggest, protracted fall, which has not materialised
there is no bearish story out there to calm this market
down. Until we make it through the dry season early • Starting around mid-September, Mintec began to hear
in the year, I do not see much hope that will see prices of more cover being put in place for H1 2024,
ease” preferring to lock down supply rather than risk
shortages. Towards early November, more buyers
• Another common topic was the lack of clarity continued to tell Mintec that they were about to – or As port arrivals continue to drop
regarding the EU’s deforestation rules which come already had – made the decision to buy some or all of year-on-year, and buyers are
into effect at the end of 2024. The lack of H1 forced to cover, market
transparency in the cocoa supply chain, among participants have become
others, continues to drive concerns that current • All market participants interviewed agreed that this increasingly bullish in their
stocks of cocoa beans in Europe may be destroyed pent-up buying demand would likely continue to short-term assessments.
should they not be exempted from the new regime provide support for further price rallies. The only
counterpoint offered remains the negative grindings
figures and the potential impact for consumer
demand destruction as the full extent of the price
rises filters through to retail shelves. So far, with only a
few small indications, this has not yet happened, but a
few buyers surveyed expressed the view that we may
see additional weakening of demand in early 2024
• The Mintec Benchmark Prices (MBP) for spot Cocoa Butter EXW
Western Europe [Mintec Code: COBS] have continued to rally
along with terminal prices, closing above €9,000/mt earlier in
November, and were last assessed at €9,658/mt on 29th
November. The MBP for spot Cocoa Liquor [Mintec Code: 0A09]
was last assessed at €6,604/mt, another record

• With product ratios changing little throughout the month, the

higher terminal prices fed directly into product. Also of note is
that the Mintec Benchmark Prices (MBP) for spot Cocoa Powder
Natural EXW Western Europe [Mintec Code: COPL] ticked higher
Source: Mintec Analytics
on increased demand

• According to the most recent Commitment of Traders (COT)

report in London, the net positions of both producers and
speculators were broadly unchanged throughout November, with
the producer net short position increasing slightly as processors
are compelled to sell at such high prices. However, both industry
buying and some increased spec longs stopped the market from
retreating

• In New York, a similar dynamic played out. With so much

uncovered buying demand in 2024, attempts for the market to
break lower will be few and far between, according to market
participants interviewed by Mintec
Source: ICE
£ British Pound Y-O-Y The most recent assessment
price, or last traded price on an
$ US Dollar exchange, compared to the
assessment price or last traded price
€ Euro a year prior
ICE InterContinental Q-O-Q The most recent assessment
Exchange price, or last traded price on an
exchange, compared to the
MT metric tonnes assessment price or last traded price
one quarter prior
KG Kilograms
M-O-M The most recent assessment
COT Commitment of price, or last traded price on an
Traders exchange, compared to the
assessment price or last traded price
ICCO International Cocoa at the end of the previous month
Organization
H1 The first half of the calendar year
CCC Conseil Café-Cacao –
[Côte d’Ivoire cocoa H2 The second half of the calendar
board] year