USGC Harvest Report 14 15 Final
USGC Harvest Report 14 15 Final
USGC Harvest Report 14 15 Final
20
OR N H A RV E ST
T
C R EP O R
AL IT Y
QU
ACK N OW L E D G E ME N T S
The U.S. Grains Council is pleased to provide our customers and members with the U.S. Grains Council Corn
Harvest Quality Report 2014/15, the fourth in an annual series.
Accurate and timely information on crop quality helps buyers make better informed decisions, increases
confidence in the capacity and reliability of the market, and assists nations around the world in achieving food
security through trade. It is our goal that the Harvest Report offers a transparent view of the United States’
most recent crop as it comes out of the field.
The Harvest Report 2014/2015 was delayed slightly because of a cool, wet spring in the U.S. Corn Belt, which
led to late planting and a late harvest. We were fortunate to experience near ideal growing conditions this crop
year in many parts of the United States, and we are anticipating an abundant crop for the second year in a row.
As in past editions, the Harvest Report 2014/2015 provides information about the quality of the current U.S.
crop at harvest as it enters international merchandising channels, using consistent methodology to allow for
comparison with past years’ quality.
Corn quality observed by buyers will be further affected by subsequent handling, blending and storage
conditions. A second Council report, the Corn Export Cargo Quality Report, measures corn quality at export
terminals at the point of loading for international shipment and should be available in March 2015.
The U.S. Grains Council is committed to global food security and mutual economic benefit through trade.
As a bridge between international corn buyers and the world’s largest and most sophisticated agricultural
production and export system, the Council offers this report as a service to our partners around the world in
support of our mission of Developing Markets, Enabling Trade and Improving Lives.
Sincerely,
Ron Gray
Chairman
U.S. Grains Council
December 2014
The overall quality of the 2014 corn crop for many factors was good, with 88% that would grade No. 2 or better. The
2014 corn crop is entering the marketing channel with the following characteristics:
• Low levels of BCFM (0.8%), with 96.2% below • Consistent kernel volumes (0.27 cm3) with 2013,
the limit for No. 1 grade, indicating little cleaning 2012 and 3YA.
will be required.
• Lower true density (1.259 g/cm3), horneous
• Significantly higher total damage (1.7%) than endosperm (82%) and test weight than 3YA,
previous years, with a wider distribution. indicating a softer corn. However, there is still
However, 94.8% of the samples were still a good supply of corn suitable for dry milling –
below the limit for No. 2 corn. The samples 30.2% of the samples above 1.275 true density,
at the upper limit of the distribution may 62.1% of the samples above 80% horneous
require special attention to prevent further endosperm, and 48.0% of the samples above
deterioration. 58 lb/bu test weight.
• Lower elevator moisture content (16.6%) than • Significantly higher whole kernels (93.6%) than
2013, but higher than 3YA. The distribution 2013 and close to 3YA.
shows a lower percentage above 17% moisture,
indicating less drying of high moisture corn than MYCOTOXINS
in 2013 and therefore potential for fewer stress • Significantly lower incidences of aflatoxins
cracks. detected compared to the 2012 corn crop and
analogous incidence compared to the 2013 corn
CHEMICAL COMPOSITION crop. 100% of the 2014 corn samples tested
• Lower protein concentration (8.5% dry basis) below the FDA aflatoxin action level of 20 ppb.
than 2013, 2012 and 3YA. The lower protein
• 100% of the corn samples tested below the
concentration is likely attributable to higher
FDA advisory levels for DON (5 ppm for hogs
yields in 2014 than in the previous years.
and other animals and 10 ppm for chicken and
• Comparable starch concentration (73.5% dry cattle) (same as in 2013 and 2012). However,
basis) to 2013 and higher than 3YA, indicating greater incidences of DON (percent of samples
relatively good kernel filling and maturation, testing positive for DON) were detected in the
which will be beneficial for wet millers. 2014 corn crop compared to the 2013 and
2012 crops.
• Higher oil concentration of 3.8% dry basis than
2013, 2012, and 3YA.
1
3YA represents the simple average of the quality factor’s average or standard deviation from the Harvest Reports 2011/12, 2012/13
and 2013/14.
This report provides detailed information on each of the In addition, this Harvest Report includes brief descriptions
quality factors tested, including averages and standard of the U.S. crop and weather conditions; U.S. corn
deviations for the aggregate of all samples, and for each production, usage and outlook; and detailed descriptions
of the three ECAs. The “Quality Test Results” section of survey and statistical analysis methods, and testing
summarizes the following quality factors: methods.
• Grade Factors: test weight, broken corn and New to this Harvest Report 2014/15 is a simple average
foreign material (BCFM), total damage, and of the quality factors’ averages and standard deviations of
heat damage the previous three Harvest Reports (2011/12, 2012/13
and 2013/14). These simple averages are calculated for
• Moisture
the U.S. Aggregate and each of the three ECAs and are
referred to as “3YA” in the report.
• U.S. Aggregate average BCFM in 2014 (0.8% • No heat damage was reported on any of the
consisting primarily of broken corn) was less than samples.
in 2013 (0.9%) and for 3YA (0.9%) and well below
the maximum for No. 1 grade (2%). Low BCFM • Of the inbound elevator samples, 88.2% would
indicates minimal cleaning required for corn grade No. 2 or better on all grade determining
delivered to first handler and should facilitate factors. Most elevators use No. 2 grade criteria
good aeration airflow during storage. as the base for pricing and discounts in domestic
transactions. As corn moves through the market
• BCFM levels in almost all (98.4%) of the corn channel, subsequent handling, drying, and
samples were at or below the maximum of 3% storage may lower the quality.
allowed for No. 2 grade.
• U.S. Aggregate average moisture content (16.6%)
• Average BCFM, BC, and FM differed little among was significantly lower than 2013 (17.3%) but
the three ECAs. higher than 2012 and 3YA. The wide range
with higher maximum values may require more
• U.S. Aggregate average total damage in 2014 segregation by moisture content, and careful
(1.7%) was significantly higher than in previous attention to drying and storage practices. More
years, which may be due in part to the delayed drying will be required for the 37.5% of corn
harvest in 2014 compared to previous years but containing more than 17%.
still below the limit for No. 1 grade (2.0%). Most
of the samples (83.8%) contained 3% or less • Elevator moistures were consistently higher in
damaged kernels, indicating that the corn should the Gulf ECA than in the other two ECAs for 2014,
have good quality and store well. 2013, 2012 and 3YA, which was likely due in part
to comparatively lower potential for field drying in
• The relatively wide range of total damage many parts of the Gulf ECA.
between minimum and maximum values (with
5.3% of the samples containing more than 5% • The larger range in moisture contents may require
total damage) may require special attention to more segregation by moisture content.
segregation when drying and storing.
• Drying at the point of first delivery may result in
• Total damage levels were highest in the Gulf ECA additional stress cracking and breakage as the
(2.2%) and lowest in the Pacific Northwest ECA corn moves to export.
(0.4%). The high level of total damage in the Gulf
58.8 75.6
57.9 74.5 74.2
57.6
66.8
51.9 65.5
50.9 63.6
49.4
5.9 17.3
5.7 5.8 29.9
28.2
24.7 13.6
12.7
17.3
16.6
15.3
10.9 10.9
0.8 0.9 0.8 8.9
1.7
0.1 0.1 0.8 0.9
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014
RESULTS
• U.S. Aggregate average test weight in 2014 was 57.6 No. 1 grade (56 lb/bu) compared to 81.5% in 2013.
lb/bu (74.2 kg/hl) compared to 57.9 lb/bu (74.5 kg/ In the 2014 crop, 94.7% of the samples were above
hl) in 2013 and 58.8 lb/bu (75.6 kg/hl) in 2012. the limit for No. 2 grade, compared to 93% in 2013.
• While the 2014 U.S. Aggregate average test weight • Average test weight for each ECA was also above
was below 3YA of 58.2 lb/bu, (75.0 kg/hl), it was still the limit for No. 1 grade. The Gulf and Southern
above the minimum for No. 1 grade (56 lb/bu). Rail ECAs had the highest average test weights,
• Sample values were more uniform in the 2014 crop 57.8 lb/bu and 58.0 lb/bu, respectively. The Pacific
relative to 2013, as indicated by the lower U.S. Northwest ECA’s lower test weight (56.6 lb/bu)
Aggregate standard deviation (1.34 lb/bu). Standard occurred in 2013 and 3YA.
deviation for 2013 was 1.51 lb/bu. • The Pacific Northwest ECA also had the highest
• The range in values was also smaller among 2014 standard deviation (1.36 lb/bu) compared to the
samples – 10.6 lb/bu in 2014 compared to 12.0 lb/ Gulf (1.34 lb/bu) and Southern Rail (1.30 lb/bu)
bu and 13.1 lb/bu in 2013 and 2012, respectively. ECAs. The lower test weight in the Pacific Northwest
• The 2014 test weight values were distributed with was accompanied by greater variability.
77.4% of the samples at or above the factor limit for
Pacific Pacific
Northwest Northwest
56.6 72.9
Southern Southern
Rail Rail
Gulf Gulf
48.0
5.1
5.1
0.2
0.0
0 0 0 0 0 6 3 12 26 26 70 55
0.2
0.0
0 0 0 0 0 6 3 12 26 26 70 55
kg/hl
lb/bu
increase during drying and handling, depending on the methods used and the soundness of the No. 2: 3.0%
kernels. Increased stress cracks at harvest will also result in an increase in broken kernels and No. 3: 4.0%
BCFM during subsequent handling.
Broken corn is defined as corn and any other material small Broken Corn/Foreign Material Corn Harvest Quality
BCFM (Measured as Percent by Weight)
Measured as % by weight Report 2012/13
enough to pass through a 12/64th-inch round-hole sieve, but
6/64 inches= 0.238 cm
too large to pass through a 6/64th-inch round-hole sieve. 12/64 inches= 0.476 cm
FM
Foreign material is defined as any non-corn material too large
12/64” sieve
to pass through a 12/64th-inch round-hole sieve, in addition
to all fine material small enough to pass through a 6/64th-inch
round-hole sieve. BC
6/64” sieve
• U.S. Aggregate average BCFM in the 2014 crop (0.8%) was Pacific
less than in 2013 (0.9%), and 3YA (0.9%), well below the Northwest
0.9
maximum for No. 1 grade (2.0%).
0.7 0.8
• The 2014 crop was more uniform in BCFM than 3YA and
previous years’ crops as indicated by standard deviations Southern
Rail
Gulf
(0.50% for 2014 crop and 0.60% for 3YA). The range
between minimum and maximum values was very similar
for the three years.
U.S. Aggregate
96.2
• The 2014 samples were distributed with 96.2% of the Avg Std Dev
Percent of Samples (%)
(%) (%)
samples below the maximum for No. 1 grade, with BCFM 2014 0.8 0.50
2013 0.7 0.46
2% or less, compared to 93% and 95% in 2013 and 2012, 2012 0.7 0.42
respectively.
2.2
1.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
95 93 4 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
• Average BCFM among the ECAs differed little from the U.S.
Percent
RESULTS
• Broken corn in the U.S. Aggregate samples averaged
0.6% in the 2014 crop, slightly lower than the levels in Broken Corn (%)
Export Catchment Area Average
2013, 2012 and for 3YA (all 0.7%).
• The 2014 crop was more uniform on the factor of broken Pacific
Northwest
0.6
corn than the previous two crops, with a U.S. Aggregate
standard deviation of 0.36% compared to 0.46% in 2013 0.5 0.6
and 0.42% in 2012. The range between minimum and
maximum values in 2014 was also smaller than in 2013 Southern
Rail
Gulf
and 2012.
42.0
than 1.0% broken corn, indicating more samples with low Avg Std Dev
Percent of Samples (%)
(%) (%)
levels of breakage than in previous years. 2014 0.6 0.36
2013 0.7 0.46
2012 0.7 0.42
• The distribution chart to the right, displaying broken corn 8.9
as a percent of BCFM, shows that in nearly all samples,
3.0
1.0
0.8
39 39 40 41 14 10 4 5 2 2 1 2
BCFM consisted primarily of broken corn, as was found in
Percent
previous years.
Broken Corn as a % of BCFM
• The percent of broken corn in the three ECAs differed by 12/10/2014 (3:07 PM) 6 of 19 Results Reporting 2014 Current.xlsx / Chart9
35.0
5.4
0.5
0.2
1 1 1 1 3 6 27 29 68 64
Percent
RESULTS
Foreign Material (%)
• Foreign material in the U.S. Aggregate samples averaged Export Catchment Area Average
0.2% in 2014, the same as in 2013 and 2012 and for
3YA. Pacific
Northwest
0.2
• Variability among the U.S. Aggregate samples in 2014
was lower than in 2013, with a standard deviation of 0.2 0.2
94.4
but similar to 2012.
Avg Std Dev
Percent of Samples (%)
(%) (%)
• All ECAs had average foreign material values equal to 2014 0.2 0.19
2013 0.2 0.23
0.2%. 2012 0.2 0.18
4.0
1.0
0.3
0.2
0.2
95 91 5 5 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Percent
12/10/2014 (3:07 PM) 8 of 19 Results Reporting 2014 Current.xlsx / Chart11
RESULTS
• Total damage in the U.S. Aggregate samples averaged Total Damage (%)
1.7% in 2014, significantly higher than 2013 (0.9%). Export Catchment Area Average
Although much higher than 3YA (0.9%), 2014 total
Pacific
damage was still well below the limit for No. 1 grade Northwest
0.4
(3%). Total damage may have been higher in part due to
delayed harvest in 2014 compared to previous years. 1.3 2.2
(%) (%)
to 13.6% and 12.7% in 2013 and 2012, respectively). 2014 1.7 1.36
2013 0.9 0.87
2012 0.8 0.72
• Total damage in the 2014 samples was distributed
with 83.8% of the samples having 3% or less damaged
11.0
2.4
2.2
0.5
0.2
96 96 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
kernels, and 94.8% having 5% or less.
Percent
• Average total damage in the Gulf ECA was 2.2%.
Moisture may have been a contributing factor since the 12/10/2014 (3:07 PM) 9 of 19 Results Reporting 2014 Current.xlsx / Chart12
Gulf had the highest average moisture (16.9%) and the sample with the highest maximum moisture (29.9%).
The Pacific Northwest ECA had the lowest total damage (0.4%). The higher damage and higher average
moistures found in the Gulf ECA may have been due in part to weather conditions that provided a lower
potential for field drying in the Gulf ECA.
• Average total damage values in all ECAs were well below the limit for U.S. No. 1 corn (3.0%), but individual
samples as high as 17.3% will require special attention to prevent further deterioration in storage and
shipment as this corn moves through the market channel.
B. Moisture
Moisture content is reported on official grade certificates, but does not determine which numerical grade will be
assigned to the sample. Moisture content affects the amount of dry matter being sold and purchased. Moisture
is also an indicator for potential drying, has potential implications for storability, and affects test weight. Higher
moisture content at harvest increases the chance of kernel damage occurring during harvesting and drying.
Moisture content and the amount of drying required will also affect stress cracks, breakage, and germination.
Extremely wet grain may be a precursor to high mold damage later in storage or transport. While the weather during
the growing season affects yield and the development of the grain, grain harvest moisture is influenced largely by
the timing of harvest and harvest weather conditions.
RESULTS
• The U.S. Aggregate moisture recorded at the elevator in
Moisture (%)
the 2014 samples averaged 16.6%, significantly lower Export Catchment Area Average
than 2013 (17.3%), but higher than 2012 (15.3%) and
3YA (16.0%). Pacific
Northwest
16.1
• The moisture content of the 2014 samples at harvest
was less variable than the 2013 crop, as indicated by the 16.0 16.9
lower standard deviation (1.84% in 2014 compared to
Southern
2.24% in 2013), but very close to 3YA of 1.84%. Rail
Gulf
• The range was greater among the 2014 samples than
among the 2013 samples – 10.9 to 29.9% in 2014
compared to 10.9 to 28.2% in 2013. U.S. Aggregate Avg Std Dev
(%) (%)
2014 16.6 1.84
• The 2014 moisture values were distributed with 30.6% of
32.0
2013 17.3 2.24
27.7
Percent of Samples (%)
22.9
base moisture used by most elevators for discounts and
is a level considered safe for storage for short periods
9.4
5.2
during low winter-time temperatures.
2.7
0.2
2 0 15 4 34 20 27 27 15 24 5 14 2 10
Percent
compared to 10.0% in 2013 and 31.7% in 2012.
Moisture of 14% is generally considered a safe level for 12/10/2014 (3:07 PM) 2 of 19 Results Reporting 2014 Current.xlsx / Chart5
C. Chemical Composition
Chemical composition of corn is important because the components of protein, starch and oil are of significant
interest to end users. The chemical composition attributes are not grade factors. However, they provide additional
information related to nutritional value for livestock and poultry feeding, for wet milling uses, and other processing
uses of corn. Unlike many physical attributes, chemical composition values are not expected to change significantly
during storage or transport.
13.3
76.1
75.9
12.4 75.6
11.3
73.5 73.5
9.4 73.0
8.7
8.5
71.7
71.1
7.0 70.6
6.5 6.4
Test Results:
Comparison
2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014
5.5
5.0 5.0
2.8
2.0
1.7
RESULTS
Protein (%)
• In 2014, U.S. Aggregate protein concentration averaged Export Catchment Area Average
8.5%, which was significantly lower than 8.7% in 2013,
9.4% in 2012, and 8.9% for 3YA. Pacific
Northwest
8.7
56.8
• Protein concentration in 2014 was distributed with 22.0% Avg Std Dev
(%) (%)
below 8.0%, 56.8% between 8.0% and 8.99%, and 21.2% Percent of Samples (%) 2014 8.5 0.55
2013 8.7 0.66
at or above 9.0%. The protein distribution in 2014 shows 2012 9.4 0.66
21.5
a lower percentage of samples with high levels of protein
17.6
than in 2013 or 2012.
3.3
0.5
0.3
0.0
0 1 3 16 29 49 43 26 21 5 4 1 0 1
(Dry Basis)
Percent
and Southern Rail ECAs were 8.4%, 8.7%, and 8.6%,
respectively. The Gulf ECA had the lowest protein for 2014, 12/10/2014 (3:07 PM) 10 of 19 Results Reporting 2014 Current.xlsx / Chart13
• Over the past four crop years, 11 of the 12 surveyed states have shown a negative relationship between
average state corn yield and average state protein concentration. In general, when their average yield has
gone up, average protein concentration has gone down.
RESULTS
Starch (%)
• U.S. Aggregate starch concentration averaged 73.5% in Export Catchment Area Average
2014, same as 73.5% in 2013, significantly higher than
73.0% in 2012 and above 73.3% for 3YA. Pacific
Northwest
73.4
51.8
(%) (%)
• Starch concentration in 2014 was distributed with 21.5% Percent of Samples (%) 2014 73.5 0.63
2013 73.5 0.65
between 70.0 and 72.99%, 51.8% between 73.0 and 2012 73.0 0.67
73.99%, and 26.6% equal to or greater than 74.0%, and
25.0
20.2
was similar to the 2013 distribution.
1.6
1.3
0.0
(Dry Basis)
Percent
Northwest, and Southern Rail ECAs were 73.6%, 73.4%
and 73.4%, respectively. Starch concentration averages
were highest in the Gulf ECA in 2014, 2013 and 2012.
12/10/2014 (3:07 PM) 11 of 19 Results Reporting 2014 Current.xlsx / Chart14
Starch vs Protein
Thus, the Gulf ECA had highest starch and lowest protein
in each of the last three years. 77
76 y = -0.6283x + 78.814
• Since starch and protein are the two largest components
Starch (%)
75
in corn, when the percentage of one goes up the other 74
usually goes down. This relationship is illustrated in the 73
adjacent figure showing a weak but negative correlation
72
(-0.61) between starch and protein.
71
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Protein (%)
RESULTS
Oil (%)
• U.S. Aggregate oil concentration averaged 3.8% in 2014,
Export Catchment Area Average
higher than 3.7% in 2013 and 2012 and for 3YA.
Pacific
• U.S. Aggregate oil standard deviation in 2014 (0.31%) Northwest
3.6
was lower than in 2013 and 2012 (0.34% both years)
and for 3YA (0.33%). 3.7 3.8
42.1
Avg Std Dev
40.5
(%) (%)
distribution shows more samples had higher oil levels 2014 3.8 0.31
Percent of Samples (%)
10.0
and Southern Rail ECAs were 3.8%, 3.6% and 3.7%, 7.0
0.3
0.0
1 2 10 14 40 39 40 36 8 8 1 0
respectively. Oil concentration averages were higher
(Dry Basis)
Percent
for the Gulf and Southern Rail ECAs than for the Pacific
Northwest for 2014, 2013 and 3YA.
12/10/2014 (3:07 PM) 12 of 19 Results Reporting 2014 Current.xlsx / Chart15
*Indicates averages in 2013 were significantly different from 2014, and 2012 averages were significantly different from 2014 based on a 2-tailed t-test at the
95% level of significance.
1
Due to the ECA results being composite statistics, the sum of the sample numbers from the three ECAs is greater than the U.S. Aggregate.
D. Physical Factors
Physical factors include other quality attributes that are neither grading factors nor chemical composition. Tests
for physical factors provide additional information about the processing characteristics of corn for various uses, as
well as its storability and potential for breakage in handling. The storability, the ability to withstand handling, and
the processing performance of corn are influenced by corn’s
morphology. Corn kernels are morphologically made up of four
parts, the germ or embryo, the tip cap, the pericarp or outer
covering, and the endosperm. The endosperm represents about
82% of the kernel, and consists of soft (also referred to as floury
or opaque) endosperm and of horneous (also called hard or
vitreous) endosperm, as shown to the right. The endosperm
contains primarily starch and protein, the germ contains oil and
some proteins, and the pericarp and tip cap are mostly fiber. Illustration courtesy of K. D. Rausch University of Illinois
• Of the ECAs, the Pacific Northwest had lowest • The factors including horneous endosperm, true
kernel volume and 100-k weights in 2014, 2013 density and test weight appear to change in the
and for 3YA. same direction, with higher values in a drought
year (2012) and lower values in a high-yielding
• Kernel true densities averaged 1.259 g/cm3 for year (2014). The multiple survey results indicate
U.S. Aggregate corn in 2014, which was nearly kernel volumes stayed relatively constant between
same as 1.258 g/cm3 in 2013, close to 1.267 g/ drought and high-yielding years.
cm3 for 3YA, but significantly lower than 1.276 g/
cm3 in 2012.
The following tests reflect these intrinsic parts of the corn kernels, in addition to the growing and handling conditions
that affect corn quality.
86
324.0
63
217.0
9 8 22.8
4 9.3 20.2
0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014
100-Kernel100-Kernel
WeightWeight
(g) (g) Kernel Volume (cm3)(cm3)
Kernel Volume True DensityTrue
(g/cm
Density)(g/cm3)
3
1.276
34.53 34.03 0.27 0.27 1.258 1.259
33.41 0.27
1.199
1.157 1.160
19.70 0.16
17.49 18.07
0.15
0.14
94.4 97 97
93.6 96
92.4
85
73.6 82 82
68.0
63.6 74
71 71
with stress cracks above 20%, which is below the 11% Avg Std Dev
52.1
(%) (%)
2014 8 9
in 2013 but much higher than the 3% in 2012. Stress 2013 9 10
27.2
2012 4 5
crack distributions indicate the 2014 corn had similar or
slightly lower susceptibility to breakage than that found in
9.2
8.4
3.0
75 59 16 21 5 5 1 3 3 11
2013.
Percent
• Stress cracks averages for the Gulf, Pacific Northwest,
and Southern Rail ECAs were 9%, 6% and 6%,
Stress Crack Index (SCI)
12/10/2014 (3:07 PM) 13 of 19 Results Reporting 2014 Current.xlsx / Chart16
respectively.
Export Catchment Area Average
• SCI had a U.S. Aggregate average of 20.2, which is less
Pacific
than 22.8 in 2013 but significantly higher than 9.3 in Northwest
12.8
2012.
• U.S. Aggregate SCI standard deviation in 2014 was 27.7, 11.4 24.1
While the percentage of 7.2% of the 2014 samples that 2014 20.2
Avg Std Dev
27.7
had SCI greater than 80 is similar to the 9.0% in 2013, 2013 22.8 35.1
2012 9.3 14.1
the proportion is higher than the 2.0% in 2012. This
distribution may indicate more artificial drying was likely
7.6
7.2
3.2
1.3
89 80 6 6 1 3 1 2 2 9
done in 2014 and 2013 than in 2012. However, SCI
Index
2013.
• SCI averages for the Gulf, Pacific Northwest, and Southern Rail ECAs were 24.1, 12.8 and 11.4, respectively.
The 3YA for SCI by ECA was also lowest for the Southern Rail ECA.
• The Southern Rail ECA had the lowest stress cracks and SCI of the ECAs in 2014, 2013 and 2012, and for
3YA with the exception of having the same stress crack levels as in the Pacific Northwest ECA in 2014. The
lower stress cracks and SCI found for the Southern Rail ECA is likely related to greater field drying potential
that is typically found in the states comprising the Southern Rail ECA.
RESULTS
100-k Weight (g)
• 100-k weights of U.S. Aggregate samples averaged 34.03 g
Export Catchment Area Average
in 2014, which was significantly higher than 33.41 g in 2013,
significantly lower than 34.53 g in 2012, and higher than Pacific
Northwest
33.69 g for 3YA. 30.92
44.0
(g) (g)
the samples had 100-k weights of 35 g or greater, compared 2014 34.03 2.83
34.2
Percent of Samples (%)
14.1
with 30.92 g compared to the Gulf and Southern Rail ECAs
6.5
0.5
0.5
0.2
0 0 1 2 11 24 39 35 44 33 4 6 0 0
that averaged 34.88 g and 34.47 g, respectively. The Pacific
grams
Northwest ECA also had the lowest 100-k weights in 2013
and for 3YA.
12/10/2014 (3:07 PM) 15 of 19 Results Reporting 2014 Current.xlsx / Chart18
RESULTS
Kernel Volume (cm3)
• Kernel volume averaged 0.27 cm3 for U.S. Aggregate corn Export Catchment Area Average
in 2014, which was unchanged from 0.27 cm3 in 2013
and 2012 and for 3YA. Pacific
Northwest
0.25
• The standard deviation for U.S. Aggregate kernel volume
remained constant at 0.02 cm3 for 2014, 2013, 2012 0.27 0.28
and 3YA.
Southern
Rail
3 Gulf
• Kernel volumes ranged from 0.16 to 0.36 cm in 2014,
0.15 to 0.36 cm3 in 2013 and 0.14 to 0.35 cm3 in 2012.
60.1
2014 0.27 0.02
greater, compared to 15% in 2013 and 11% in 2012.
Percent of Samples (%)
2013 0.27 0.02
2012 0.27 0.02
24.3
Southern Rail ECAs averaged 0.28 cm3, 0.25 cm3, and
14.6
0.27 cm3, respectively.
0.5
0.5
0.0
0 0 2 2 20 33 68 51 11 15 0 0
cm3
• The Pacific Northwest ECA had lower kernel volumes than
the other two ECAs in 2014, 2013 and for 3YA. 12/10/2014 (3:07 PM) 16 of 19 Results Reporting 2014 Current.xlsx / Chart19
36.1
2013 1.258 0.021
29.9
2012 1.276 0.017
only 30.2% of the samples were at or above 1.275 g/ 20.5
cm3, compared to 34.0% of the samples in 2013 and
9.7
0.3
0 3 0 11 9 21 38 30 52 34 0 0
g/cm3
soft corn, this kernel distribution indicates a higher
percentage of samples with lower true density than in
Test Weight vs True Density
12/10/2014 (3:07 PM) 17 of 19 Results Reporting 2014 Current.xlsx / Chart20
56
Northwest true densities, in addition to test weights,
54
were lowest among ECAs in 2014 and 2013 and for 3YA.
52
The exterior integrity of the corn kernel is very important for two key reasons. First, it affects water absorption for
alkaline cooking and steeping operations. Kernel nicks or pericarp cracks allow water to enter the kernel faster than
intact or whole kernels. Too much water uptake during cooking can result in loss of solubles, non-uniform cooking,
expensive shutdown time and/or products that do not meet specifications. Some companies pay contracted
premiums for corn delivered above a specified level of whole kernels.
Second, fully intact whole kernels are less susceptible to storage molds and breakage in handling. While hard
endosperm lends itself to preservation of more whole kernels than soft corn, the primary factor in delivering whole
kernels is harvesting and handling. This begins with proper combine adjustment followed by the severity of kernel
impacts due to conveyors and number of handlings required from the farm field to the end user. Each subsequent
handling will generate additional breakage. Harvesting at higher moisture contents (e.g., greater than 25%) will
usually lead to more pericarp damage to corn than harvesting at lower moisture levels (less than 18%).
45.0
(%) (%)
• Of the 2014 samples, 85.7% had 90% or higher whole
Percent of Samples (%)
40.7
1 1 2 4 8 18 38 46 52 31
Hardness has been correlated to breakage susceptibility, feed utilization/efficiency and starch digestibility. As a test
of overall hardness, there is no good or bad value for horneous endosperm; there is only a preference by different
end users for particular ranges. Many dry millers and alkaline cookers would like greater than 90% horneous
endosperm, while wet millers and feeders would typically like values between 70% and 85%. However, there are
certainly exceptions in user preference.
RESULTS
Horneous Endosperm (%)
• Horneous endosperm averaged 82% for U.S. Aggregate Export Catchment Area Average
corn in 2014, which was the same as 82% in 2013,
significantly lower than 85% in 2012, and lower than 84% Pacific
Northwest
81
for 3YA.
was 4%, the same as in 2013 and 2012 and for 3YA.
Southern
Rail
Gulf
• Horneous endosperm ranged more widely in 2014 (71 to
97%) than in 2013 (71 to 96%) and 2012 (74 to 97%).
• Of the 2014 samples, 62.1% were equal to or greater than U.S. Aggregate
80% horneous endosperm, which was below 67% in 2013 Avg Std Dev
(%) (%)
33.1
2014 82 4
29.4
2013 82 4
22.4
2012 85 4
• Horneous endosperm averages for Gulf, Pacific Northwest,
and Southern Rail were 82%, 81%, and 82%, respectively.
8.6
0.2
1 5 13 27 31 34 40 27 16 6 0 0
2014 samples. 85
80
75
70
1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.35
True Density (g/cm3)
*Indicates averages in 2013 were significantly different from 2014, and 2012 averages were significantly different from 2014 based on a 2-tailed
t-test at the 95% level of significance.
1
Due to the ECA results being composite statistics, the sum of the sample numbers from the three ECAs is greater than the U.S. Aggregate.
2
The Relative ME for predicting the harvest population average exceeded ±10%.
E. Mycotoxins
Mycotoxins are toxic compounds produced by fungi that occur naturally in grains. When consumed at elevated
levels, mycotoxins may cause sickness in humans and animals. While several mycotoxins have been found in corn
grain, aflatoxins and deoxynivalenol (DON or vomitoxin) are considered to be two of the important mycotoxins.
As in 2012 and 2013, the 2014 harvest samples were tested for aflatoxins and DON for this year’s report. Since the
production of mycotoxins is heavily influenced by growing conditions, the objective of the Harvest Quality Report is
strictly to report on instances when aflatoxins or DON are detected in the corn crop at harvest. No specific levels of
the mycotoxins are reported.
The Harvest Quality Report review of mycotoxins is NOT intended to predict the presence or level at which
mycotoxins might appear in U.S. corn exports. Due to the multiple stages of the U.S. grain merchandising channel
and the laws and regulations guiding the industry, the levels at which mycotoxins appear in corn exports are less
than what might first appear in the corn as it comes out of the field. In addition, this report is not meant to imply
that this assessment will capture all the instances of mycotoxins across the 12 states or three Export Catchment
Areas (ECAs) surveyed. The Harvest Quality Report’s results should be used only as one indicator of the potential
for mycotoxin presence in the corn as the crop comes out of the field. As the Council accumulates several years of
the Harvest Quality Report, year-to-year patterns of mycotoxin presence in corn at harvest will be seen. The U.S.
Grains Council Corn Export Cargo Quality Report 2014/15 will report corn quality at export points and will be a
more accurate indication of mycotoxin presence in the 2014/15 U.S. corn export shipments.
as in the 2013 crop seasons. Both 2014 and 2013 had a 2014
2013
higher percentage of samples below the LOD than 2012. No 2012
0.0
0.0
0.0
78 98 2 1 3 0 5 1 12 1
in 2014 (see the “Crop and Weather Conditions” section for
<2.5 ppb >=2.5 ppb >=5 ppb >=10 ppb >20 ppb
more information on the 2014 growing conditions). Weather & <5 ppb & <10 ppb & <=20 ppb
was cool and wet during pollination and grain fill in 2014 and
as a result, the corn plants were not under stress. These
conditions were not conducive to aflatoxin formation.
• One hundred forty-six (146) samples, or 80.2% Comparing the 2014 DON survey results to 2013 and
of the 182 samples, tested less than the 0.5 2012 survey results indicates that there was a smaller
ppm. percentage of samples with DON results below the
LOD in 2014 than in 2013 and 2012 crop seasons.
• Thirty-six (36) samples, or 19.8% of the 182
While all survey results were below 5 ppm for all three
samples, tested greater than or equal to 0.5
years, a smaller percentage of samples fell below 0.5
ppm, but less than or equal to the FDA advisory
ppm in 2014 than in 2013 and 2012. This may be
level of 5 ppm.
attributed to wet and cool conditions during flowering
• All 182 samples, or 100%, tested below or and/or a delayed harvest in 2014.
equal to the FDA advisory level of 5 ppm.
DON Testing Results
• The 2014 percentage for samples that tested
below 0.5 ppm (80.2%) is lower than both 2013
Percent of Samples Tested
2014
80.2
(91.6%) and 2012 (96.0%). 2013
2012
19.8
observed in 2013 and 2012.
0.0
96 92 4 8 0 0
<0.5 ppm >=0.5 ppm & <= 5 ppm >5 ppm
The following sections describe how the 2014 growing season weather impacted the corn yield and grain quality in
the U.S. Corn Belt.
1
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) rates the U.S. corn crop weekly during the production cycle. The rating is based on yield poten-
tial, and plant stress due to a number of factors including extreme temperatures, excessive or insufficient moisture, disease, insect damage
and/or weed pressure.
The Southern Rail ECA had an average to cool spring, but Generated 6/11/2014 at HPRCC using provisional data. Source: Regional Climate Centers
In the Southern Rail ECA, the weather was abnormally dry and cold in July, but residual moisture from June helped
plant growth. The cool weather probably prevented Aspergillus mold formation, which prefers hot and dry conditions
after pollination. During grain-fill, the weather warmed up above average, but continued with dry conditions, and led
to greater than average starch and decreased protein concentration.
Typically, 80% of the U.S. corn crop is harvested by the Generated 10/11/2014 at HPRCC using provisional data. Source: Regional Climate Centers
end of October. However, in 2014, the cool summer
temperatures initially delayed maturity. Harvest was further Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)
delayed by rainy weather and continued cool temperatures, 10/1/2014 - 10/31/2014
primarily in the Gulf and Pacific Northwest ECAs, but also
in the eastern half of the Southern Rail ECA. There was a
scattered early freeze in mid-September in the northern
Gulf and Pacific Northwest ECAs, affecting less than 3%
of the corn crop. However, the crop experienced a more
widespread freeze and snowfall in early October, this time
affecting 20% of the corn production area. At that time,
approximately 30% of the corn crop was not at full maturity
and susceptible to frost damage, which could include
reduced yields, lower test weights and stress-cracking, and
may take a longer time to dry down. Producers also may Generated 11/2/2014 at HPRCC using provisional data. Source: Regional Climate Centers
Similar to 2013, the summer of 2014 was cooler than 3YA, and much cooler than the drought of 2012. In contrast to the
temporary drought of 2013, the summer of 2014 had ample rain and more soil moisture, promoting more grain, yield,
and oil, but less protein. Harvest in both 2014 and 2013 was later than 3YA due to multiple weeks of rain and freezing
temperatures.
Throughout much of 2014, the corn crop had the greatest Good + Excellent condition percentage compared to the past 10
years, signifying good plant health, leading to greater photosynthesis, starch accumulation and yield. In contrast, the corn
crop in 2013 was rated better than 3YA, but less than 2014, due to the short-term intense heat and drought. The severity
of the drought and heat wave in 2012 rapidly decreased the crop condition, starch accumulation, and yield, but increased
grain test weight and protein concentration. % Silking
% Emerged
Percent Emerged Percent Silking
100 100
80 80
60
Percent
60
Percent
2014 2014
40 2013 40
2013
2012 2012
20 20
2011-2013 2011-2013
0 0
5/4
6/2
6/9
4/21
4/28
5/12
5/19
5/27
6/16
7/7
8/4
6/23
6/30
7/14
7/21
7/28
8/11
Week Week
U.S. Corn Condition, rated Good + Excellent, %
% Harvested
50
Percent
2014
40 40
2013
30
20 2012 2014
20 2013
2011-2013 10
0 2012
0
9/16
9/22
9/29
10/6
11/3
10/13
10/20
10/27
11/10
11/17
6/1
7/1
8/1
9/1
10/1
Week Week
2
A “Good” rating means that yield prospects are normal. Moisture levels are adequate and disease, insect damage, and weed pressures are
minor. An “Excellent” rating means that yield prospects are above normal, and the crop is experiencing little or no stress. Disease, insect damage,
and weed pressures are insignificant.
35.5
U.S. corn yield for the 2014 crop is projected to be 10.9 mt/
35.4
11.0 36.0
Hectares Harvested (mil)
34.0
than the 2013 corn crop and the highest average yield on 34.5
Yield (mt/ha)
33.6
9.5
34.0
record. 9.0
33.0
33.5
8.5
33.0
• The number of hectares harvested in 2014 is projected 8.0 32.5
7.5 32.0
to be 33.6 million (83.1 mil ac). This is 1.9 mil ha (4.6 mil 7.0 31.5
ac) less than in 2013, which was the largest number of
Year
Crop
harvested hectares over the last 80 years. The projected Source: USDA NASS
P=Projected
• Total U.S. corn production for 2014 is projected to be 366.0 mmt (14,407 mil bu). This is about 12.3 mmt
(482 mil bu) higher than 2013 and the largest U.S. corn crop on record.
• While 2014 saw slightly lower harvested hectares than in 2013, significantly higher yields in key U.S. corn-
producing areas in 2014 resulted in projected record total production.
1
mt - metric ton; mmt - million metric tons; ha - hectare; bu - bushel; mil bu - million bushels; ac - acre.
The record size of the 2014 corn crop was primarily driven by U.S. Corn Production by State
61
significantly higher production in Illinois, Iowa and Missouri
59
Crop Year
55
compared to 2013. Of the remaining nine states, Indiana, 53 2013
Corn Production (mmt)
2014P
Kansas, South Dakota and Wisconsin had slightly higher
41
40
production, while Minnesota had about the same level of
33
33
27
21
21
had slightly lower production.
17
16
15
15
13
13
11
11
10
9
6
6
IL IN IA KS KY MN MO NE ND OH SD WI
P=Projected Sampled States
Source: USDA NASS
harvested acres and yield between 2013 and projected Kansas 13 15 2 14%
2014. The green bar indicates a relative increase and Kentucky 6 6 (1) -9%
the red bar indicates a relative decrease from 2013 to Minnesota 33 33 (0) -1%
projected 2014. This illustrates that harvested acres were Missouri 11 15 4 38%
largely unchanged to slightly lower, with the exception
Nebraska 41 40 (1) -2%
of North Dakota, which experienced a 24% reduction in
North Dakota 10 9 (1) -11%
harvested acres. Yield changes were largely unchanged
Ohio 17 16 (1) -7%
to slightly higher, with the exception of significantly higher
yields in Kansas and Missouri and slightly lower yields in South Dakota 21 21 0 1%
137
14/15P
131
130
130
127
127
121
• While the amount of corn used for ethanol production 140
118
115
110
Million Metric Tons
120
was lower in MY12/13 relative to MY10/11, MY11/12 100
and MY13/14, the proportion of corn used for ethanol 80
60
production to overall use has not changed greatly the past
36
36
35
35
35
40
four completed marketing years. 20
0
Food, Seed, Ethanol & Feed and Residual Use
• Direct consumption of corn as a feed ingredient in Other Non-ethanol Co-products
Ind. Use
U.S. Corn Production and Disappearance P=Projected
domestic livestock and poultry rations rebounded in Source: USDA WASDE and ERS
• U.S. corn exports during MY13/14 were more than double Marketing Year
366
400
354
10/11 11/12
316
350
313
the previous marketing year, mostly due to record U.S. corn
303
295
12/13 13/14
285
278
273
Million Metric Tons
300
263
14/15P
production and lower prices. 250
200
• The 2012 drought resulting in lower production greatly 150
drew down the MY12/13 ending stocks, the lowest in 100
51
49
47
44
39
31
50
29
many years. However, the large 2013 crop helped rebuild
25
21
19
0
ending stocks in MY13/14. Production Total Domestic Exports Ending Stocks
Use P=Projected
Source: USDA WASDE and ERS
C. Outlook
1. U.S. Outlook 2. International Outlook
• The record-setting 2014 U.S. corn crop is Global Supply
creating an abundant supply of corn for
• Global corn production during MY14/15 is
MY14/15. The ample corn supply has put
expected to be a record-setting year, primarily
a downward pressure on corn prices, which
due to the large U.S. corn crop.
has helped support corn use in the domestic
market. As a result, domestic use is projected • Greater production for MY14/15 in the EU,
to increase 2.4% from MY13/14 to MY14/15. Russia, Serbia and the Philippines will offset
lower production in China, Brazil, Ukraine,
• Corn use for food, seed and non-ethanol
India, Canada and Argentina.
industrial (FSI) purposes is expected to remain
largely unchanged in MY14/15 compared • In addition to slightly lower U.S. exports, total
to MY13/14, continuing the pattern of the non-U.S. exports are expected to be 11% lower
previous four marketing years. in MY14/15 than in MY13/14.
• Projected MY14/15 corn use for ethanol is • Increases in exports are expected in Serbia,
about the same as the previous marketing South Africa and the EU.
year, with corn expected to represent a larger
share of the ethanol feedstock. U.S. ethanol Global Demand
disappearance will be impacted by lower crude • Global corn use is expected to increase around
oil and gasoline prices, possibly weakening 2% in MY14/15 from MY13/14.
domestic ethanol demand and net ethanol
exports. • Corn use is anticipated to be higher in
MY14/15 in China, Mexico, Brazil and Russia,
• Domestic corn use for livestock and poultry but lower in Canada compared to MY13/14.
feeding and for residual use is expected
to be about 4.5% higher in MY14/15 than • An 11% decrease in year-over-year imports is
in MY13/14 and at the highest level since expected globally in MY14/15, with decreases
MY07/08. Factors driving this demand include in the EU (64% decrease), Indonesia, Egypt and
the continued decline in the relative price of China.
corn to other feedstuffs and increasing demand
due to feeding livestock longer and/or the
rebuilding of livestock herds.
Food, seed, other non-ethanol ind. use 35.7 36.1 35.5 34.6 35.2
Ethanol and co-products 127.5 127.0 117.9 130.4 130.8
Feed and residual 121.3 114.8 109.6 130.4 136.5
Exports 46.5 39.1 18.5 48.7 44.5
Total Use 331.1 317.1 281.5 344.1 347.0
Food, seed, other non-ethanol ind. use 1,407 1,421 1,397 1,363 1,385
Ethanol and co-products 5,019 5,000 4,641 5,134 5,150
Feed and residual 4,777 4,520 4,315 5,132 5,375
Exports 1,831 1,541 730 1,917 1,750
Total Use 13,033 12,482 11,083 13,546 13,660
• Following the methodology developed for the • To evaluate the statistical validity of the samples,
previous three Harvest Reports, the samples the Relative ME was calculated for each of the
were proportionately stratified according to quality attributes at the U.S. Aggregate and the
Agricultural Statistical Districts (ASDs) across 12 three ECA levels. The Relative ME for the quality
key corn-producing states representing 98.5% of factor results was less than ±10% except for
U.S. corn exports. three attributes – total damage, stress cracks
and stress crack index (SCI). While the lower
• A total of 600 samples collected from the 12
level of precision for these quality factors is less
states were targeted to achieve a maximum
than desired, these levels of Relative ME do not
±10% relative margin of error (Relative ME) at
invalidate the estimates.
the 95% confidence level.
• Two-tailed t-tests at the 95% confidence
• A total of 629 unblended corn samples pulled
level were calculated to measure statistical
from inbound farm-originated trucks were
differences between the 2014 and 2013 and the
received from local elevators from September 20
2014 and 2012 quality factor averages.
through December 5, 2014, and tested.
Agricultural Statistical Districts (ASDs)
• A proportionate stratified sampling technique
was used for the mycotoxin testing across the
ASDs in the 12 states surveyed for the other
quality factors. This sampling resulted in 182
samples being tested for aflatoxins and DON.
• The Gulf ECA consists of areas that typically The Relative ME was calculated for each of the quality
export corn through the U.S. Gulf ports; factors for the U.S. Aggregate and each of the ECAs.
The Relative ME was less than ±10% for all the quality
• The Pacific Northwest (PNW) ECA includes areas
attributes except for SCI for the U.S. Aggregate and
that export corn through Pacific Northwest and
the Gulf and Southern Rail ECAs, and total damage,
California ports; and
stress cracks and SCI for the Pacific Northwest ECA.
• The Southern Rail ECA comprises areas The Relative ME for total damage, stress cracks and
generally exporting corn to Mexico. SCI was as follows:
C. Chemical Composition
1. NIR Proximate Analysis – Corn 2. Stress Crack Analysis
Proximates are the major components of the grain. For Stress cracks are evaluated by using a backlit viewing
corn, the NIR Proximate Analysis includes oil content, board to accentuate the cracks. A sample of 100
protein content, and starch content (or total starch). intact kernels with no external damage is examined
This procedure is nondestructive to the corn. kernel by kernel. The light passes through the
horneous or hard endosperm so the severity of the
Chemical composition tests for protein, oil, and stress crack damage in each kernel can be evaluated.
starch were conducted using a 400- to 450-gram Kernels are sorted into four categories: (1) no cracks;
sample in a whole-kernel Foss Infratec 1229 Near- (2) 1 crack; (3) 2 cracks; and (4) more than 2 cracks.
Infrared Transmittance (NIT) instrument. The NIT Stress cracks, expressed as a percent, are all kernels
was calibrated to chemical tests, and the standard containing one, two or more than two cracks divided
error of predictions for protein, oil, and starch were by 100 kernels. Lower levels of stress cracks are
about 0.2%, 0.3%, and 0.5%, respectively. Results are always better since higher levels of stress cracks lead
reported on a dry matter basis (percent of non-water to more breakage in handling. If stress cracks are
material). present, singles are better than doubles or multiples.
Some corn end users will specify the acceptable level
D. Physical Factors of cracks based on the intended use.
1. 100-Kernel Weight, Kernel Volume Stress crack index (SCI) is a weighted average of
and Kernel True Density the stress cracks. This measurement indicates the
severity of stress cracking. SCI is calculated as
The 100-kernel weight is determined from the average
weight of two 100-kernel replicates using an analytical SCI = [SSC x 1] + [DSC x 3] + [MSC x 5]
balance that measures to the nearest 0.1 mg. The Where
averaged 100-kernel weight is reported in grams.
SSC is the percentage of kernels with only one
The kernel volume for each 100-kernel replicate crack,
is calculated using a helium pycnometer and is DSC is the percentage of kernels with exactly two
expressed in cm3/kernel. Kernel volumes usually cracks, and
range from 0.18-0.30 cm3 per kernel for small and
MSC is the percentage of kernels with more than
large kernels, respectively.
two cracks.
True density of each 100 kernel sample is calculated The SCI can range from 0 to 500, with a high number
by dividing the mass (or weight) of the 100 externally indicating numerous multiple stress cracks in a
sound kernels by the volume (displacement) of the sample, which is undesirable for most uses.
same 100 kernels. The two replicate results are
averaged. True density is reported in grams per cubic
centimeter (g/cm3). True densities typically range from
1.16 to 1.35 g/cm3 at “as is” moistures of about 12 to
15%.
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