Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute (203) 582-5201 Rubenstein Associates, Inc.

, Public Relations Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: NOVEMBER 10, 2011

OBAMA, ROMNEY TIED IN FLORIDA, OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY SWING STATE POLL FINDS; CAIN, ROMNEY DUEL FOR GOP LEAD IN ALL THREE STATES
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FLORIDA: Obama 42 Romney 45 OHIO: Obama 45 Romney 42 PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 44 Romney 43 One year before the presidential election, President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney are running neck and neck in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, the three states that for the past half-century have predicted the presidential winner, according to the first Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll of the 2012 cycle released today. The president leads the other top GOP contenders, although half the voters in each state say he does not deserve a second term. Since 1960, no candidate has won the presidency without carrying at least two of these three states. Herman Cain and Romney lead the Republican primary pack in all three states, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. But when all voters not just Republicans are asked about Romney and Cain, voters are more comfortable with the idea of Romney as president. Romney is considered more honest and trustworthy and makes a more favorable impression, while Cain is viewed more unfavorably. Although President Barack Obama is running behind his 2008 showings in the three key swing states against Gov. Mitt Romney, he actually does better against the other GOP aspirants including Herman Cain than he did against Sen. John McCain, said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. That may not be surprising given the presidents substantial name recognition edge on any of his challengers. His wide lead over most of the field and his neck-and-neck race with Romney show that the dissatisfaction with the president as evidenced by his mid-40s percent job approval and weak deserves a second term ratings hasnt translated into affection for his GOP challengers, Brown added. -more-

Quinnipiac University Poll/November 10, 2011 page 2 Questions about Herman Cains behavior as head of the National Restaurant Association havent derailed his candidacy so far, and he remains strong among Republicans. While the immediate effect hasnt been catastrophic, its unclear whether the story will have legs that will make a larger dent in the Cain Train as we get closer to the actual primaries. Nevertheless, there is a negative effect from the controversy on his standing among non-Republicans that gives him overall negative ratings on voter comfort level with him as president and whether he is honest and trustworthy. The gender gap is large as women in each state are more negative on Cain. Florida Pitting President Obama against possible Republican challengers shows:

Romney at 45 percent to Obamas 42 percent; Obama edging Cain 45 41 percent; Obama at 45 percent to House Speaker Newt Gingrichs 42 percent; Obama over Texas Gov. Rick Perry 46 40 percent. Cain leads the Republican primary field with 27 percent, followed by Romney at 21 percent,

Gingrich at 17 percent and Perry at 5 percent, with no other candidate over 4 percent. In a two-man race, Cain tops Romney 45 39 percent. There is a large gender gap as men back Cain 54 34 percent while women go with Romney 44 35 percent. Florida voters disapprove 52 41 percent of the job Obama is doing and say 51 43 percent that he does not deserve reelection. The economy is the most important issue in the 2012 presidential election, 55 percent of Florida voters say. Romney would do a better job on the economy, voters say 49 39 percent. Cain would do a better job, 45 percent say, compared to 42 percent for Obama. Voters say 40 36 percent that Cain is honest and trustworthy compared to 51 28 percent for Romney. A total of 39 percent of voters are very comfortable or fairly comfortable with the idea of Cain as president, compared to 50 percent who are very or somewhat comfortable with Romney. Cain gets a split 36 34 percent favorability rating, compared to Romneys 40 28 percent rating. Of these three swing states President Obama carried in 2008, Florida was the biggest surprise and had the closest margin, said Brown. Florida is shaping up to be the closest swing state again in 2012 and its a fair bet that a year from now, it will be the toughest of the Big Three for Obama to carry. If speculation that Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida could be the GOPs vice presidential nominee proves correct, that would make the Sunshine State even a tougher sale for the president, said Brown. 2

-moreQuinnipiac University Poll/November 10, 2011 page 3 Ohio The 2012 presidential face-off in Ohio shows:

Obama at 45 percent to Romneys 42 percent; Obama topping Cain 48 38 percent; Obama beating Gingrich 49 37 percent; Obama over Perry 48 36 percent. In the GOP presidential race, Cain gets 25 percent to Romneys 20 percent, with Gingrich at 11

percent, Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul at 9 percent and Perry tied with Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann at 4 percent each. Cain tops Romney head-to-head 47 39 percent. Ohio voters disapprove 50 44 percent of the job Obama is doing and split 46 48 percent on whether he deserves reelection. The economy is the top presidential campaign issue for 54 percent of Ohio voters and 45 percent of voters say Romney would do a better job on this issue, compared to 43 percent who pick Obama. Obama would do a better job on the economy than Cain, voters say 46 39 percent. Voters split 38 37 percent on whether Cain is honest and trustworthy. Romney gets a 46 32 percent honesty rating. Only 30 percent of Ohio voters are comfortable with the idea of Cain as president, while 39 percent are uncomfortable and 30 percent are undecided. Romney gets a 40 35 percent comfort score. Romney has a 36 31 percent favorability, compared to Cains split 30 32 percent. Although the data currently shows Ohio to be winnable for the president, there are many including some top Democrats who think it will be a tough job because the state is home to large numbers of blue-collar whites among whom Obama has always had problems, said Brown. This weeks voter repeal of the state law curbing collective bargaining, and the negative 36 51 percent job approval rating for Republican Gov. John Kasich, however, give the White House hope that the Buckeye State might not be out of reach. Pennsylvania The 2012 presidential matchups in the Keystone State are:

Obama 44 percent to Romneys 43 percent; Obama tops Cain 48 38 percent; Obama beats Gingrich 48 38 percent; Obama bests Perry 47 38 percent. -more-

Quinnipiac University Poll/November 10, 2011 page 4 In the Republican primary race, Cain and Romney are tied at 17 percent each, with native son Rick Santorum and Gingrich at 13 percent each and Perry and Paul at 5 percent each. Going head to head, Romney gets 42 percent to Cains 41 percent. Pennsylvania voters disapprove 52 44 percent of the job Obama is doing and say 50 46 percent he does not deserve reelection. Following the pattern, 53 percent of Keystone State voters say the economy is the most important issue and 45 percent say Romney would do a better job here, compared to 41 percent for Obama. Voters say 47 39 percent that Obama would handle the economy better than Cain. Romney is honest and trustworthy, Pennsylvania voters say 50 26 percent. Cain fails the honesty test as voters say 41 32 percent he is not honest. Only 30 percent of voters are comfortable with the idea of Cain as president, while 40 percent are uncomfortable, with 30 percent undecided. By a 44 31 percent margin, voters are comfortable with Romney. Cain gets a negative 28 35 percent favorability, compared to Romneys 36 30 percent positive score. In Pennsylvania, where Obama got his biggest win of the three swing states in 2008, he does no better against the GOP challengers, said Brown. He won the Keystone State by double digits in 2008. But, even here his job approval ratings have been in the mid-40s or lower most of the year. Few expect that same double-digit margin if he carries the state next November. Interestingly, while the unpopularity of the Republican governors in Florida and Ohio might help the president there, in Pennsylvania chief executive Tom Corbett is doing a little better and might at the margins tip the scale the other way. From October 31 November 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed: 1,185 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent, including 513 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent; 1,312 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent, including 443 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percent; 1,436 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent, including 579 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and nationwide as a public service and for research. For individual statewide crosstabs and trends visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2881.xml or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If Registered Republican) If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, and Herman Cain, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS FL OH PA Perry Gingrich Romney Bachmann Santorum Paul Huntsman Cain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 5% 17 21 4 1 3 1 27 2 3 16 4% 11 20 4 1 9 2 25 1 2 20 5% 13 17 2 13 5 2 17 2 2 21

2. (If Registered Republican) Suppose the primary came down to a choice between Herman Cain and Mitt Romney for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS FL OH PA Cain Romney SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 45% 39 2 3 11 47% 39 2 3 10 41% 42 2 3 12

3. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Perry the Republican, for whom would you vote? FL Obama Perry SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 46% 40 3 3 8 OH 48% 36 3 4 9 PA 47% 38 2 4 9

4. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? FL Obama Romney SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 42% 45 2 3 8 OH 45% 42 3 3 7 PA 44% 43 2 3 8

5. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Herman Cain the Republican, for whom would you vote? FL Obama Cain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 45% 41 2 4 8 OH 48% 38 3 4 8 PA 48% 38 2 4 8

6. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Newt Gingrich the Republican, for whom would you vote? FL Obama Gingrich SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 45% 42 3 3 8 OH 49% 37 3 4 7 PA 48% 38 2 4 8

7. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FL Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 40% 28 29 3 OH 36% 31 32 2 PA 36% 30 32 2

8. Is your opinion of Herman Cain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FL Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 36% 34 29 1 OH 30% 32 36 2 PA 28% 35 36 1

9. Is your opinion of Rick Perry favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FL Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 22% 42 34 1 OH 16% 40 42 2 PA 17% 39 42 1

10. Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FL OH PA Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 34% 39 25 2 28% 44 26 2 28% 42 29 2

11. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FL Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 47% 48 3 3 OH 47% 46 4 2 PA 47% 49 2 3

12. Is your opinion of the Republican Party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it? FL Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 39% 44 13 3 OH 32% 53 12 3 PA 34% 52 11 3

13. Is your opinion of the Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it? FL Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 40% 44 12 3 OH 43% 45 10 3 PA 39% 47 10 4

14. Is your opinion of the Tea Party Movement favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it? FL Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 34% 40 25 1 OH 32% 39 27 1 PA 31% 43 25 1

15. Is your opinion of the Occupy Wall Street Movement favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it? FL Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 30% 39 29 2 OH 30% 37 32 1 PA 29% 40 30 1

16. Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party movement or not? FL Yes No DK/NA 13% 82 5 OH 12% 84 4 PA 10% 86 4

17. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in the 2012 presidential election next year - are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? FL More Less About the same DK/NA 35% 21 43 1 OH 25% 23 51 1 PA 25% 28 46 1

18. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote for President in November 2012 - the economy, health care, immigration issues, terrorism, the federal budget deficit, taxes, foreign policy or something else? FL The economy Health care Immigration issues Terrorism Federal deficit Taxes Foreign policy Something else DK/NA 55% 11 4 1 13 5 2 7 2 OH 54% 13 2 2 12 5 1 8 3 PA 53% 16 2 2 11 5 1 7 3

19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way (FL-Rick Scott/OH-John Kasich/PA-Tom Corbett) is handling his job as Governor? FL Approve Disapprove DK/NA 36% 50 14 OH 36% 51 13 PA 46% 31 23

20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? FL Approve Disapprove DK/NA 41% 52 7 OH 44% 50 6 PA 44% 52 5

21. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President - Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?

FL Yes/Deserves No/Does not DK/NA 43% 51 6

OH 46% 48 6

PA 46% 50 4

22. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? FL Very satisfied Smwht satisfied Smwht dissatisfied Very dissatisfied DK/NA 1% 16 31 52 OH 2% 19 33 45 1 PA 1% 18 35 45 1

23. Whether or not you plan to vote for him, if Herman Cain were to become the next president, how comfortable would you be with him as president - very comfortable, fairly comfortable, not very comfortable, or not at all comfortable, or haven't you heard enough about him to say? FL Very comfortable Fairly comfortable Not very comfortable Not at all comfrtble Hvn't hrd enough DK/NA 16% 23 11 27 23 1 OH 11% 19 14 25 30 1 PA 11% 19 14 26 30 1

24. Whether or not you plan to vote for him, if Mitt Romney were to become the next president, how comfortable would you be with him as president - very comfortable, fairly comfortable, not very comfortable, or not at all comfortable, or haven't you heard enough about him to say? FL Very comfortable Fairly comfortable Not very comfortable Not at all comfrtble Hvn't hrd enough DK/NA 14% 36 14 17 18 1 OH 8% 32 18 17 24 1 PA 9% 35 18 13 24 1

25. Whether or not you plan to vote for him, if Newt Gingrich were to become the next president, how comfortable would you be with him as president - very comfortable,

fairly comfortable, not very comfortable, heard enough about him to say? FL Very comfortable Fairly comfortable Not very comfortable Not at all comfrtble Hvn't hrd enough DK/NA 19% 21 12 30 19 1 OH 11% 21 15 31 21 1 PA 13% 18 17 28 22 1

or not at all comfortable, or haven't you

26. Whether or not you plan to vote for him, if Rick Perry were to become the next president, how comfortable would you be with him as president - very comfortable, fairly comfortable, not very comfortable, or not at all comfortable, or haven't you heard enough about him to say? FL Very comfortable Fairly comfortable Not very comfortable Not at all comfrtble Hvn't hrd enough DK/NA 8% 24 17 29 22 1 OH 4% 19 17 27 32 1 PA 5% 19 17 27 32 1

27. Whether or not you plan to vote for him, if Barack Obama were to be reelected president, how comfortable would you be with him as president - very comfortable, fairly comfortable, not very comfortable, or not at all comfortable, or haven't you heard enough about him to say? FL Very comfortable Fairly comfortable Not very comfortable Not at all comfrtble Hvn't hrd enough DK/NA 26% 22 13 37 1 1 OH 26% 26 13 33 1 1 PA 24% 27 15 32 1 1

28. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy - Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? FL Obama Romney DK/NA 39% 49 12 OH 43% 45 12 PA 41% 45 13

29. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy - Barack Obama or Newt Gingrich? FL OH PA

Obama 44% 49% 47% Gingrich 45 39 41 DK/NA 11 11 12 30. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy - Barack Obama or Herman Cain?

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FL Obama Cain DK/NA 42% 45 12

OH 46% 39 14

PA 47% 39 14

31. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy - Barack Obama or Rick Perry? FL Obama Perry DK/NA 45% 42 13 OH 46% 39 15 PA 47% 39 14

32. Would you say that Herman Cain is honest and trustworthy or not? FL Yes No DK/NA 40% 36 24 OH 38% 37 26 PA 32% 41 27

33. Would you say that Mitt Romney is honest and trustworthy or not? FL Yes No DK/NA 51% 28 21 OH 46% 32 22 PA 50% 26 23

34. Would you say that Rick Perry is honest and trustworthy or not? FL Yes No DK/NA 37% 37 25 OH 31% 40 29 PA 32% 38 30

35. Would you say that Newt Gingrich is honest and trustworthy or not? FL Yes No DK/NA 40% 41 19 OH 35% 44 20 PA 38% 41 21

36. Would you say that Barack Obama is honest and trustworthy or not? FL Yes No DK/NA 52% 43 6 OH 57% 37 5 PA 59% 38 4

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