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Gas Price Analyzer

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10 views

Gas Price Analyzer

Uploaded by

gh.22srimanta
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Analyzing_Natural_Gas_Prices

April 17, 2024

[1]: import pandas as pd


import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from statsmodels.tsa.holtwinters import ExponentialSmoothing

# Load the dataset


data = pd.read_csv(r"C:\Users\gh22s\Downloads\Nat_Gas.csv")

# Load the dataset with explicit date format


data['Dates'] = pd.to_datetime(data['Dates'], format='%m/%d/%y')

# Set 'Date' column as index


data.set_index('Dates', inplace=True)

# Generate a new date range with frequency 'MS'


data.index = pd.date_range(start=data.index[0], periods=len(data), freq='MS')

# Fit the Exponential Smoothing model


model = ExponentialSmoothing(data['Prices'], seasonal='additive',␣
,→seasonal_periods=12)

results = model.fit()

# Forecast future prices


forecast = results.forecast(steps=12)

#print(forecast)
d = pd.DataFrame(forecast)

# Reset the index, moving it to a column


d.reset_index(inplace=True)
d.columns = ['Dates','Prices']
d

[1]: Dates Prices


0 2024-11-01 11.847585
1 2024-12-01 12.384329
2 2025-01-01 12.721168
3 2025-02-01 12.758006

1
4 2025-03-01 12.644867
5 2025-04-01 12.681651
6 2025-05-01 12.043331
7 2025-06-01 11.615156
8 2025-07-01 11.491899
9 2025-08-01 11.653760
10 2025-09-01 11.540510
11 2025-10-01 11.752298

[2]: # Assuming 'results' contains the fitted Exponential Smoothing model


date_input = pd.to_datetime('2025-05-01') # Change the date as needed

# Extract the forecasted price for the specific date


forecasted_price = results.forecast(steps=12)[date_input]

print(f"Estimated gas price for {date_input.date()}: ${forecasted_price:.2f}")

Estimated gas price for 2025-05-01: $12.04

[3]: import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

# Visualize the data and forecast side by side


fig, axes = plt.subplots(nrows=1, ncols=2, figsize=(16, 6))

# Plot historical prices


axes[0].plot(data.index, data['Prices'], marker='o', linestyle='-',␣
,→color='skyblue')

axes[0].set_title('Historical Natural Gas Prices', fontsize=14)


axes[0].set_xlabel('Dates', fontsize=12)
axes[0].set_ylabel('Prices', fontsize=12)
axes[0].tick_params(axis='x', rotation=45)
axes[0].grid(True)

# Plot forecasted prices


axes[1].plot(data.index, data['Prices'], label='Historical Prices', marker='o',␣
,→linestyle='-', color='skyblue')

axes[1].plot(forecast.index, forecast, label='Forecasted Prices',␣


,→color='salmon', marker='o', linestyle='--')

axes[1].set_title('Forecasted Natural Gas Prices (Exponential Smoothing)',␣


,→fontsize=14)

axes[1].set_xlabel('Dates', fontsize=12)
axes[1].set_ylabel('Prices', fontsize=12)
axes[1].tick_params(axis='x', rotation=45)
axes[1].legend(fontsize=12)
axes[1].grid(True)

# Add annotation for projected trend

2
axes[1].annotate('Projected Trend', xy=(data.index[-1], forecast.iloc[-1]),␣
,→xytext=(-100, 50),

textcoords='offset points', arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle='->',␣


,→connectionstyle="arc3,rad=.2"), fontsize=12)

plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

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