Election India – 2024

Jammu and Kashmir

a. Bkgr. Previous assy elections were held in Nov - Dec 2014. After election, coalition of
IIOJK PDP1 and BJP formed state govt, with Mufti Mohammad Sayeed becoming the Chief
Minister. CM Mufti Mohammad Sayeed died on 7 Jan 2016. After a brief period of
Governor's rule, Mehbooba Mufti was sworn in as next CM of IIOJK.
b. Political Parties and Alliances – IIOJK att at Anx A.
c. On 18 Apr 24,: PDP President & Lok Sabha candidate from Anantnag-Rajouri Mehbooba
Mufti stated that "This election is not for electricity, water and road, but this election is for
attack that was made on Jammu and Kashmir's identity and the employment of youths post
2019. Our lands power project is being snatched from us and an attempt has been made to
make us bonded labour.
d. Poling Time. Voting began at 7 am to 6 PM.
e. Election Sch – IIOJK 2024. Voting for Lok Sabha elections in IIOJK will happen in 5 x
parts. Counting of votes will be on 4 Jun 24.
Total Polling Ph-I Ph-III Ph-II Ph-IV Ph- V
IIOJK Seats2 Days (19 Apr) (7 May) (26 Apr)
(13 May) (20 May)
Elections Anantnag- Baramull
5 5 Udhampur Jammu Srinagar
Rajouri a
f. Polling Stations. Total 2,637 x polling stations across constituency, incl 31 x near LOC, to
decide fate of 12 x candidates.
g. Previous Result. During 2019 Lok Sabha polls, it was BJP which won Jammu seats while
NC cavorted home 3 x seats in Kashmir.
h. Poling Areas. Polling started in Udhampur Lok Sabha constituency spread over 5 x dists
of Udhampur, Kathua, Ramban, Doda and Kishtwar.
i. Turnout. Voting percentage was around 68.27%. It is especially highlighted that due to
weather latest updated reports are awaited from some of the Polling Stations, specially
located in remote hilly areas of Kishtwar, Gandoh, Ramban and Dudu-Basantgarh, the
polling percentage is likely to increase slightly, the election office said in a statement shortly
after midnight
j. Current Sit/ Overview.
k. Bkgr
(1) On 4 Aug 2019, almost all major Kashmir-based political parties closed their ranks
and came together to jtly oppose revocation of Article 370. Representatives from
around 7 x parties descended on foothills of Gupkar – an affluent lake-side locality in
Srinagar where most former CM are located – and marched together, voicing anger
over and rejection of momentous decisions that were to take place the fol day.
(2) Such political posturing was supposed to indicate a broad-based unity that ought to
complicate the matters for BJP as it mov to scrap erstwhile state’s autonomous
status.
(3) Yet more than 4 x years later, such unity has all but dissipated as UT heads into its
1st major electoral exercise since 2019.
(4) So as IIOJK enters election season, its political landscape in region is marred by far
too many dissensions. Political pundits suggest that while this sit was complex, it
was not entirely unpredictable.

1
Peoples Democratic Party.
2
Two x seats are in Hindu-majority Jammu region, and 3 x seats in Muslim-dominated Kashmir.
 (5) Fractured pol scene in IIOJK has been exacerbated by decision of 2 x biggest pol
parties National Conf and PDP – to strike out separate paths rather than fight in an
alliance as had been agreed to.
(1) Some areas of South Kashmir seat like Shopian and Pulwama which have
traditionally been bastions of PDP have been annexed to Cen Kashmir seat.
(2) Certain segments of Srinagar constituency such as Beerwah and Budgam (both NC
strongholds) are now with North Kashmir seat. Likewise, Rajouri and Poonch areas
that were part of Jammu constituency (and where the BJP is courting Pahari
population by doling out reservation benefits to them) have been attached to South
Kashmir.
(3) This is not the only change that has taken place. The political canvass of J&K has
also expanded wider with the emergence of at least two new parties: one led by
former Congressman Ghulam Nabi Azad and another by a PDP defector and former
Minister Altaf Bukhari.
(4) With the People's Conference (PC) led by Sajad Lone also in the fray, there are now
far too many bright stars in J&K’s political horizon.
l. NC’s Political Strategy
(1) BJP wagered, and perhaps correctly, that a grand reshuffle on this scale was likely
to frustrate the attempt to unify Opp in IIOJK as constituent parties vie for their
respective interests.
(2) On 16 Feb 24 NC President Farooq Abdullah declared that party would fight Lok
Sabha elections indep. PDP, which was aligned to NC via two groupings – INDIA
Alliance and People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) – was thrown into a
state of surprise.
(3) Party was expecting that its allies (read NC) would cede the South Kashmir seat
where former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti was to directly contest the BJP.
(4) But the NC has announced its own candidate Mian Altaf, who is a religious leader
held in high esteem by the nomad Gujjar community. The calculation behind fielding
him is that in Poonch and Rajouri regions where the Gujjar population is substantial,
and where his name resonates with the voters, are now part of the South Kashmir
seat.
m. Is the BJP Relying on Proxy Candidates?
(5) For its part, the BJP has not fielded any candidate for the seat. In a
recent interview, Union Home Minister Amit Shah clearly suggested that the party
will focus on two Jammu-based seats.
(6) He said, “We don’t have a sufficient base in Kashmir to win an election. We have
sufficient patience. We need to spend more time building, expanding, and
strengthening our organisation in Kashmir. We will keep working and wait for the
people to embrace BJP on their own.”
(7) Instead, the party led by BJP’s informal ally in Kashmir, Altaf Bukhari has fielded
Zaffar Iqbal Manhas, a Pahari candidate. The Paharis form the majority in each of
these districts, and the BJP banks on the estimation that the Paharis who were
recently granted the Scheduled Tribe (ST) status, will reciprocate by voting for the
BJP, or any candidate allied to it.
n. Scramble for the Srinagar Lok Sabha Seat
(1) In the Srinagar parliamentary seat, NC is fielding Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, a
prominent Shia Muslim leader. Once again, this choice appears to have been
informed by the new electoral realities occasioned by the delimitation.
(2) Ruhullah’s influence permeates the Shia-dominated pockets of the Central Kashmir
district of Budgam which were previously part of Srinagar, but have now been
annexed to North Kashmir, which is generally viewed as a stronghold of Lone’s
party, the PC.
 (3) It is Omar Abdullah, the former Chief Minister, who has decided to shift gears, and
take the high-stakes battle to the Lone’s home turf.
(4) “From NC’s perspective, victory in Srinagar is a foregone conclusion,” explained
Zafar Choudhary, a senior editor and analyst. “The party honoured Ruhullah by
fielding him from Srinagar, and now his Shia voters, a large percentage of which are
also spread across parts of North Kashmir, will vote for Omar. At least that’s how NC
sees it.”
(5) Choudhary added that this wasn’t the only factor that the NC expected to work in
their favour. The party has won almost 10 of the 13 elections held for the Srinagar
seat and 9 out of the 12 held for the North Kashmir seat so far.
o. Mehbooba Mufti Left With No Choice
(1) That leaves Mehbooba Mufti locked in a one-to-one battle with NC’s Mian Altaf in the
South while her party has fielded Waheed Rehman Para, an influential youth leader
who was jailed by the Modi government under terrorism charges and is now out on
bail, in Srinagar.
(2) Para’s candidature is also explained by the fact that parts of Pulwama, including his
hometown Tahab, which were previously part of the South Kashmir seat are now
with the Srinagar constituency. In North Kashmir, the party is nominating Mir
Mohammad Fayaz, a former MP.
(3) In a surprising move, Azad dropped out of the race at the last moment. The other
two parties in the fray, Bukhari’s Apni Party (AP), and Lone’s PC, appear to have
entered into a tacit understanding with each other. While Lone is only contesting the
North Kashmir seat, Bukhari has also fielded one candidate in Srinagar besides
South Kashmir.
(4) ADVERTISEMENTREMOVE AD
p. Politics More Fractured Than Ever
(1) “Until 1996, the parties in J&K used to form governments on their own,” explained
one Kashmir-based political analyst. “NC participated in 1996 polls amid raging
militancy and promised to restore J&K’s eroded autonomy. It even passed a
resolution to that effect in the Assembly.”
(2) He said that the autonomy resolution of NC frightened the New Delhi establishment
to the extent that it resolved that no single party must win majority seats on its own in
future. This is evidenced by the memoir My Country, My Life of the senior BJP leader
LK Advani who explains in detail how "the nation was shocked on 26 June 2000"
when the resolution was adopted.
(3) “After that, we saw the rise of PDP. And NC was gradually reduced from 40 seats to
28 in 2002, and then to 15 in 2014. All subsequent governments in J&K have been
coalition governments since,” the analyst added.
(4) This trend of forestalling a big-tent unity among regional formations, political experts
said, continues to animate the policies of the BJP-led central government towards
the region.
(5) “A major factor in making Kashmir a site of enduring conflict has been power politics.
That is to say how you are able to create an issue and exploit it for political ends,”
Choudhary, the editor and analyst said. “It has been so since 1953.”
(6) (Shakir Mir is an independent journalist. He has also written for The Wire.in, Article
14, Caravan Magazine, Firstpost, The Times of India and more. He tweets at
@shakirmir. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the
author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
(7) (At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in
shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)
 Anx A
Alliance/ Party Flag Symbol Leader Seats
Contesting

Jammu and Kashmir National Conference Farooq

Abdullah

Jammu and Kashmir People's Democratic Mehbooba

Party Mufti

Bharatiya Janata Party Ravinder Raina

Indian National Congress Vikar Rasool

Wani

Jammu and Kashmir People's Conference Sajjad Gani

Lone

Jammu and Kashmir National Panthers Jay Mala

Party

Democratic Progressive Azad Party TBD Ghulam Nabi

Azad
Jammu and Kashmir Awami National Begum Khalida
Conference Shah

Aam Aadmi Party TBA

Bahujan Samaj Party

Mohammed
Communist Party of India (Marxist) Yousuf
Tarigami
Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party Altaf Bukhari

Jammu & Kashmir People's Movement Mohammed

Hussain Padder
Ekam Sanatan Bharat Dal Ankur Sharma

Jammu and Kashmir Workers Party Mir Junaid

 Media Clipping
https://www.business-standard.com/elections/lok-sabha-election/ls-polls-2024-over-68-
polling-recorded-in-j-k-s-udhampur-amid-rains-124042000035_1.html

An estimated 68 per cent of the total 1.623 million registered voters cast their ballot in the first
phase of Lok Sabha elections in Udhampur, officials said, as Jammu and Kashmir witnessed
incident-free polling in what was its first major electoral battle since the abrogation of Article 370 in
2019.

In 2019, Udhampur parliamentary constituency had recorded a total poll percentage of 70.22 per
cent.

Voting began at 7 am at 2,637 polling stations across the constituency, including 31 near the
International Border, to decide the fate of 12 candidates and ended at 6 pm.

The voting percentage was around 68.27 per cent. It is especially highlighted that due to weather
latest updated reports are awaited from some of the Polling Stations, specially located in remote
hilly areas of Kishtwar, Gandoh, Ramban and Dudu-Basantgarh, the polling percentage is likely to
increase slightly, the election office said in a statement shortly after midnight.

It said once all polling parties, especially in remote areas reach their respective district
headquarters, the firm poll percentage will be known.

Union minister Jitendra Singh, who is eyeing a third term after winning the Udhampur seat for the
BJP in 2014 and 2019, is up against Congress leader and former MP Choudhary Lal Singh and the
DPAP's G M Saroori, besides six independents.

his is the first major electoral battle in Jammu and Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 370 and
the division of the erstwhile state into two Union territories in 2019.

Braving inclement weather in most parts of the constituency due to heavy rains and strong winds,
early voters were seen heading for polling stations before the start of voting, the officials said,
adding more than 11,000 polling staff, including reserves, have been deployed while security
arrangements are foolproof to ensure free and fair elections.
As the weather conditions improved in most places around noon, long queues started forming
outside polling stations in the constituency that encompasses an expansive area of 16,707 square
kilometres.