Mckinsey On M&a
Mckinsey On M&a
Mckinsey On M&a
Finance
Perspectives on corporate finance and strategy
Perspectives
on portfolio
management
Also inside: the CFO’s central role in
integrations, a prescription for healthy
business partnerships, an overview
of crisis-market dynamics, a reflection
on Warren Buffett’s impact on
investing, and a look at how war games
can help leaders make better
business decisions.
Number 75,
November 2020
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Perspectives on corporate finance and strategy
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Number 75,
November 2020
Table of contents
1
A company that takes a programmatic approach to M&A makes roughly two or more small or midsize deals in a year, with a meaningful target
market capitalization acquired over a ten-year period (the median of the total market capitalization acquired across all deals is 15 percent). See
Jeff Rudnicki, Kate Siegel, and Andy West, “How lots of small M&A deals add up to big value,” McKinsey Quarterly, July 12, 2019, McKinsey.com.
Refresh rate1
<10% 1.5
10–30% 5.2
>30% –0.5
1
Refresh rate calculated as sum of absolute differences in company’s share of revenues by industry divided by 2.
decision making can conspire to keep executives similar to what they had been at the start. This group
(and their portfolios) in a state of inertia. The reality barely moved the needle in average annual excess
is, however, that far more CEOs and investors will total returns to shareholders (TRS). Another group,
complain that companies shifted portfolios too little comprising about a quarter of the companies,
or too late than will gripe about the opposite. The refreshed their portfolios by more than 30 percent
data are with you if you decide to put your portfolio age points over the decade; they actually produced
on the move. slightly negative annual excess TRS (Exhibit 1).
MoF75 2020
Portfolio transformation
Exhibit 2 of 3
Exhibit 2
Move with the market, and change lanes if you have to.
Move with the market, and change lanes if you have to.
Illustrated example of portfolio momentum
2007 2017
Business-
unit A
1,000 +25 250
27 52
Business-
unit B
100 +15 15
33 48
Business-
unit C
–80 –40 32
40 0
Total
297
businesses accounted for the rest. Seeing the meaningful proportion of a company’s market
challenges ahead for the publishing industry as a capitalization at the end of a ten-year period. And in
whole, the company sold its publishing and the organic approach, a company makes one deal
education businesses to private-equity investors or fewer every three years, and the cumulative value
and doubled down on financial research and of the deals is less than 2 percent of the acquirer’s
analytics. By 2017, slightly more than half of the com market capitalization.
pany’s revenues were derived from financial
research, and its financial-data-solutions business When we looked at the companies that were
reached about 50 percent of the top line. These operating at the Goldilocks refresh rate of between
moves were ahead of the tide: between 2007 and 10 and 30 percent over ten years, programmatic
2017, the average economic profit of companies M&A appeared to be the optimal path. Indeed, the
involved in information provision increased companies in our sample that used programmatic
by $1.4 billion, while that of companies involved in M&A delivered average excess TRS of 6.2 percent
publishing declined by $73 million. Veering out per year. We found similar outperformance when
of the slow lane of publishing and into the fast lane it came to changing industry lanes: of the companies
of financial data helped contribute $400 million that used transactions to move into high-growth
of the $850 million in economic-profit lift that the industries, those that relied on a programmatic
company realized over that period. approach averaged 3.7 percent in annual excess TRS,
compared with –0.5 percent for companies that
3. Use transactions to speed your way attempted this using selective M&A and 1.2 percent
M&A and divestitures are essential for positioning for companies using the large-deal approach.
companies for value creation. But it’s critical to
understand that different approaches to M&A will A global industrial company, for example, divested
produce different outcomes over a ten-year numerous businesses in which it lacked a competitive
period. A company that takes the programmatic advantage and made more than 50 transactions
approach to M&A makes roughly two or more between 2008 and 2017, posting a refresh rate of
small or midsize deals in a year, acquiring a mean 29 percent. Its discipline paid off. The company’s
ingful total market capitalization over a ten-year excess TRS versus that of its peers over the same
period (the median is 15 percent of total market period was 9 percent.
capitalization acquired across all deals). In the
large-deal approach, regardless of how many deals Programmatic M&A may not be right for every
a company does, if an individual deal is larger company in every industry, but pursuing a steady
than 30 percent of the acquiring company’s market stream of deals can give a company access to
capitalization, most of its portfolio story is told the latest market intelligence and improve its trans
by this one large bet. Selective M&A involves doing action and integration capabilities. Deals won’t
deals, but their value often doesn’t add up to a succeed all of the time, but doing them as part of
QWeb 2020
Portfolio transformation
Exhibit 3 of 3
M&A activity
Total returns to shareholders,
average excess performance,
in 2007–17 (n = 209), %
No M&A 0.1
Industry adjacent to
0.8
existing, noncore BU
No existing or
0.3
adjacent BUs
2
See Chris Bradley, Martin Hirt, and Sven Smit, “Have you tested your strategy lately?,” McKinsey Quarterly, January 1, 2011, McKinsey.com; Dan
Lovallo and Olivier Sibony, “The case for behavioral strategy,” McKinsey Quarterly, March 1, 2010, McKinsey.com; and Chris Bradley, Martin Hirt,
and Sven Smit, “Strategy to beat the odds,” McKinsey Quarterly, February 13, 2018, McKinsey.com.
Sandra Andersen (Sandra_Andersen@McKinsey.com) is an associate partner in McKinsey’s New York office, Chris Bradley
(Chris_Bradley@McKinsey.com) is a senior partner in the Sydney office, Sri Swaminathan (Sri_Swaminathan@McKinsey.com)
is a partner in the Melbourne office, and Andy West (Andy_West@McKinsey.com) is a senior partner in the Boston office.
To part with an asset successfully, management Segmenting the separation process in this way can
teams must choreograph a range of critical tasks and help business leaders better understand where
consider the perspectives of dozens of internal and to begin and where to focus their efforts—thereby
external resources and advisers—potential buyers, increasing the odds of divestiture success.
current employees, boards of directors, and so on.
And they need to do these things quickly: McKinsey
research reveals that, on average, separations Where to begin
completed within 12 months of announcement deliver Once business leaders get permission from the
higher excess total returns to shareholders (TRS) board to pursue a divestiture, they tend to go right
than do those that take longer.1 to the marketing activity. They engage a deal team,
retain an investment bank to support the sale
In most cases, however, business leaders allocate process and evaluate the potential universe of
more time to the question of whether to divest rather buyers, and develop a ten- to 20-page document
than how to divest. So when they get the green outlining investment highlights. Of course, this
light from the board, many find themselves stuck in approach will work if the asset in question is a stand-
neutral—unsure about where to put their energy, alone entity with a strong track record—for instance,
which decisions to make first, and which tasks to pri if it’s a distinct business unit within a larger
oritize. Meanwhile, delays can diminish an asset’s conglomerate that overlaps minimally with other
value or scuttle deals altogether. Our research and businesses in the portfolio.
experience in the field suggest that, to get unstuck,
business leaders need to break the divestiture For most divestitures, though, there’s a better way:
process into three interdependent but distinct activ start by fully defining the asset in question—
ities: defining, marketing, and disentangling the particularly the financials involved—and considering
asset in question (see sidebar, “Parting words and potential disentanglement issues before launching
1
See Obi Ezekoye and Jannick Thomsen, “Going, going, gone: A quicker way to divest assets,” August 6, 2018, McKinsey.com.
Business leaders must manage the sepa- — Marketing the asset. The team needs — Disentangling the asset. The team
ration of assets through three interrelated to build a narrative that takes the buyer’s needs to assess the risk from the
but distinct activities: point of view of the potential value it separation for the various stakeholders,
may gain from the asset being divested. processes, and functions. It must
— Defining the asset. The company must McKinsey research shows that risk consider the scope and timing of the
convene a cross-functional working premiums decrease and valuations transition while incorporating different
group to define what is actually being increase when sellers take this approach. financial and buyer scenarios.
divested—for instance, confirming The team should define the universe of
deal boundaries, carve-out financials, potential buyers and prepare marketing
and legal structures. materials that tell a consistent story.
any marketing efforts. In doing so, sellers are By contrast, the executives at one software
less likely to leave money on the table or to introduce company developed an ambitious yet attainable
skepticism among buyers about the information value-creation plan for a business unit that the
being provided about the asset, which could company intended to carve out. The plan included
kill a deal. shedding lower-margin, slower-growth products
associated with the carve-out, particularly those
The leaders of a complicated aerospace divestiture linked to other business units at the software
went straight to the marketing task before fully company, and shifting sales and marketing resources
evaluating the upside potential and sources of value toward newer products and services. Executives
for an asset on the block. In the marketing materials, subsequently were able to focus their marketing
the seller provided an estimate for the cost of efforts on the potential financial upside of the deal—
transitioning the asset to potential buyers. Days an expected EBITDA2 expansion of more than
after the offering memorandum was released, 25 percent—and on aggressive growth targets. This
a round of deeper financial analyses revealed that led to a substantially higher valuation of the asset
the corporate allocations used to generate that at sale.
estimate were deeply understated. By then, it was
too late. Sophisticated bidders quickly discov-
ered the error, and the seller was left at a What to focus on
disadvantage during negotiations on the transition Even the most experienced business leaders and
service agreement. The seller learned from divestiture teams can have trouble determining
this mistake, however. This was the first in a string when and how to deploy limited resources in high-
of planned divestitures, so the corporate- pressure deal situations. Here, again, a focus
development team made sure to validate and on the three core activities—with recognition of how
adjust historical allocations before bringing they inform one another—can help cut through
other assets to market. much of the noise and external pressures. It will be
2
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
Exhibit 2
To disentangle divested assets properly, companies need to draw road maps.
Typical sale road map and stage gates
Gate 1 Gate 2 Gate 3 Gate 4 Gate 5 Gate 6
Prepare Prepare
Develop Finalize
Sale Prepare confidential- management Finalize TSA,1
valuation purchase
process teaser information presentations MSA,2 etc
model agreement
memo for data room
Define
Assess
program Develop TSAs Develop Separate Transition
Operational entanglements
road map and day-1 planning separation and set up and exit
separation and validate
and working assumptions plans TSAs TSA
perimeter
group
Jamie Koenig (Jamie_Koenig@McKinsey.com) is an associate partner in McKinsey’s New York office, Anthony Luu
(Anthony_Luu@McKinsey.com) is an associate partner in the Dallas office, and Steve Miller (Steve_Miller@McKinsey.com)
is a partner in the Houston office.
The authors wish to thank Gerd Finck, John Henry Ronan, and Joe Waring for their contributions to this article.
© twomeows/Getty Images
Web 2020
What’s keeping you from divesting?
Exhibit 1 of 2
Exhibit 1
Executives cite six common obstacles to divestiture.
Executives cite six common obstacles to divestiture.
Roadblocks cited as 1st- or 2nd-most frequent divestiture inhibitor, % of respondents1
Source: McKinsey survey of executives, board members, and corporate-development and -strategy leaders in June 2020
1
This McKinsey analysis of 209 major international companies from a cross-section of industries measured average excess total returns to
shareholders from 2007 to 2017. The refresh rate was defined by how much of a company’s revenues came from business areas or service lines
different from those ten years earlier.
Source: McKinsey survey of executives, board members, and corporate-development and -strategy leaders in June 2020
expect to conduct divestitures in the next 18 months ship. The executive team of a diversified utility
(Exhibit 2), now is the time to confront these chal company did just that. It established an outside-in
lenges. In this article, we take a close look at each perspective on the value of a business unit it had
obstacle and suggest possible moves business considered parting with, looking at the unit from the
leaders can take to overcome them. perspectives of different potential buyer groups
(competitors, private-equity firms, infrastructure
funds, and so on). In parallel, the team com
Asset value prehensively reviewed the business unit’s internal
Business leaders often decline to part with an asset business plan and challenged the viability of its
because they believe that its value is far greater strategic initiatives.
than what anyone would be willing to pay for it. That
belief is frequently rooted in unrealistic growth Through this review, the executive team learned two
expectations for the asset—the traditional hockey- things. First, there was a potentially strong market for
stick projection2—which fail to come to fruition the business unit among private-equity buyers
year after year. So even when executives perform and infrastructure funds, which could bring greater
high-level valuation analyses and flank them with agility, focus, and flexibility to the asset. Second,
trading multiples, that fact base might not be suffi the existing plan of the business unit didn’t reflect
cient to address biases in management’s business the significant capital investments and other
plan or to consider realistically how valuable the asset resources that would be necessary for its strategic
might be to different types of buyers. initiatives to succeed. Once the executive team
factored in the significant near-term cash needs, the
A better approach is to build a detailed, outside-in picture looked very different. The team decided
valuation model that factors in different business and to divest now rather than await cash flows that would
market scenarios under current and other owner be unlikely to materialize—and it prepared its
2
See Chris Bradley, Martin Hirt, and Sven Smit, “Eight shifts that will take your strategy into high gear,” McKinsey Quarterly,
April 19, 2018, McKinsey.com.
3
Jen Wieczner, “Activist investors love spin-offs. Here’s why you should, too,” Fortune, June 29, 2015, fortune.com.
4
Richard Dobbs, Bill Huyett, and Tim Koller, “Are you still the best owner of your assets?,” November 1, 2009, McKinsey.com.
5
Tim Koller, Dan Lovallo, and Zane Williams, “Bias busters: Pruning projects proactively,” McKinsey Quarterly, February 6, 2019, McKinsey.com.
Gerd Finck (Gerd_Finck@McKinsey.com) is a senior expert in McKinsey’s Düsseldorf office, Jamie Koenig
(Jamie_Koenig@McKinsey.com) is an associate partner in the New York office, Jan Krause (Jan_Krause@McKinsey.com)
is a partner in the Cologne office, and Marc Silberstein (Marc_Silberstein@McKinsey.com) is an associate partner
in the Berlin office.
The authors wish to thank Anthony Luu and Steve Miller for their contributions to this article.
© Akinbostanci/Getty Images
1
See Obi Ezekoye and Jannick Thomsen, “Going, going, gone: A quicker way to divest assets,” August 6, 2018, McKinsey.com.
2
See Gerd Finck, Jamie Koenig, Jan Krause, and Marc Silberstein, “What’s keeping you from divesting,” September 18, 2020, McKinsey.com.
3
See “Going, going gone,” August 6, 2018.
F
Unnatural owner
(value destroying) Divest or fix
4
Frederick W. Gluck, Stephen P. Kaufman, Ken McLeod, John Stuckey, and A. Steven Walleck, “Thinking strategically,” McKinsey Quarterly,
June 1, 2000, McKinsey.com.
Exhibit 2
An agile
An agile approach
approach to
to portfolio
portfolio decision making can
decision making can help
help companies address
companies address
increasingly dynamic markets.
increasingly dynamic markets.
Static decision making Agile decision making
Assessment Inconsistent approach; situation specific Consistent framework; applied to all assets
approach Addresses question, “Should we sell this?” Addresses question, “Are we the best owner
Subjectivity and organizational politics at play of this?”
Objective, transparent process and clear metrics
help mitigate biases
Emphasizes feasibility and opportunity to divest
rather than infeasible recommendations or
“excuses” to defer decisions
Frequency Reviews done in response to crisis Reviews conducted annually, at least; health
or infrequently checks conducted alongside industry or market
events; continual refresh of analyses with
relevant data (eg, M&A trends, new technologies,
emerging markets)
Prevailing Fear of making big moves to shed Open to taking action and using creativity to
mindset underperforming assets; decisions and navigate roadblocks before market sentiment
execution stalled moves; incentives aligned both to grow
revenues and to create value
Obi Ezekoye (Obi_Ezekoye@McKinsey.com) is a partner in McKinsey’s Minneapolis office, and Anthony Luu
(Anthony_Luu@McKinsey.com) is an associate partner in the Dallas office.
The authors wish to thank Ajay Dhankhar, Jannick Thomsen, and Andy West for their contributions to this article.
© Matdesign24/Getty Images
Electronic Arts
2002–08
CFO
Amazon.com
1999–2002
CFO
software business. By the end of 2017, we had a the right partner. At least 100 of our customers
pretty powerful valuation story to tell, and our board were customers of both LiveRamp and Acxiom, so it
was ready to move. was critical to identify good strategic partners.
Our end-to-end communications about the dives Initially, we considered a wide range of potential
titure were completely transparent. In February of partners, but we took care to qualify all the partici
2018, we publicly announced that we were pants and narrowed down the list significantly.
beginning a process to explore strategic alternatives In the end, IPG emerged as the best home for AMS—
for AMS. We explained to employees how we one that could unlock significant value for our
intended to map various roles across both entities shareholders. The timeline for the deal is evidence
and communicate with those affected by the of our preparation. We announced our strategic
divestiture of AMS. In such situations, no solution exploration in early February 2018, then announced
is perfect, but we tried to eliminate as much the transaction with IPG in July 2018, and we
uncertainty as possible. With investors, we shared closed the deal in October 2018.
pro forma financials for a stand-alone LiveRamp,
including our approach to reduce overhead and our McKinsey: Fear of shrinking has kept lots of
expected transition costs. Even after the trans companies from pursuing separations and divesti
action, we continued to share information about tures. How did you overcome that bias?
these costs; we specifically called them out in our
financial reporting until they were fully absorbed. Warren Jenson: You need courage at the top and
relatively fearless leadership in your pursuit of value
McKinsey: What challenges did you face during the creation. Scott Howe, our CEO, provided that.
execution phase of the divestiture? There are a thousand times in a process like this
where you can easily stop; some people don’t
Warren Jenson: When the time came to launch the ever start. The process worked for us because we
divestiture, we were ready. We had mapped every believed in the vision, and we had confidence in
asset and employee to one of the two entities. We our numbers and analysis. In addition, we maintained
had prepared and documented more than 125 optionality. We knew we could continue to run the
separate transitional service agreements between business as is; we hadn’t limited our ability to do so.
LiveRamp and the eventual buyer, as well as eight When we announced that we were looking at
major intercompany agreements. Having auditable strategic alternatives, we were open to anything that
financial statements in place for each entity saved took us to our desired end state. It could have been
us a ton of time. The biggest challenge was finding a partnership or a tax-free merger. It ended up being
Comments and opinions expressed by interviewees are their own and do not represent or reflect the opinions, policies, or
positions of McKinsey & Company or have its endorsement.
Anthony Luu (Anthony_Luu@McKinsey.com) is an associate partner in McKinsey’s Dallas office, and Paul Roche
(Paul_Roche@McKinsey.com) is a senior partner in the Silicon Valley office.
Exhibit
Cost and revenue synergies are more likely to be achieved when the CFO is
involved in merger integrations.
Cost synergies achieved, % of respondents1
At or above plan Below plan
(≥90% of expectations) (<90% of expectations)
100%
100%
1
Survey was conducted online April 18–30, 2018, garnering responses from 414 C-level executives and senior managers, and via phone interviews
June 20–July 2, 2018, garnering responses from 34 CFOs. In total, 212 CFOs at company, functional, or business-unit level responded to the survey.
To adjust for differences in response rates, data are weighted by contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.
1
“The new CFO mandate: Prioritize, transform, repeat,” December 3, 2018, McKinsey.com.
their marketing activities for certain products The CFO can help senior management address key
and reallocated some of those marketing dollars concerns from individual groups of stakeholders.
toward the launch of new offerings from the In the case of one large healthcare-player merger,
combined company. for instance, the CFO spoke frequently and
consistently about merger priorities, time frames
for capturing various synergies, and how the
Communication leader company was tracking synergies. The message was
Given proximity to the deal rationale and value- tailored for various stakeholders. For investors,
creation goals, the CFO is in a strong position to help the finance leader referenced the same metrics each
senior management build and communicate a quarter, with detailed supporting discussions on
compelling story (from announcement through post the progress made and opportunities that remained.
close execution) about how the acquisition has For employees, the CFO continually referred
progressed and the potential outcomes from back to the deal’s priorities and their connection to
integration. More than the CEO and other C-suite changes made in performance management,
leaders, the finance chief has the information financial metrics, and incentive rewards. For board
and expertise required to present a complete finan members, the CFO emphasized transparency on
cial picture while tailoring the value story to milestones achieved, as well as on any challenges
each set of key stakeholders—customers, suppliers, and risks (anticipated and unanticipated). The
investors, employees, and board directors. CFO also convened a special session in which the
board and senior leadership conducted a full
This capability is particularly important during postmortem on the merger and identified things to
integrations, in which the company will have new do differently in future deals.
sets of investors with limited understanding of
the combined entity or groups of employees being
asked to work in the new entity without a clear Cultural role model
sense of what the long-term organizational structure Integrations inevitably pose cultural challenges for
will look like. The wrong message to investors can business leaders. This is particularly true for the
make it appear as though an integration is off track. finance function, as employees come together and
An overly simplistic message to employees may realize that, given the many duplicative roles and
sound deceptive. An ambiguous update to the board processes, there might not be room for everyone in
may create anxiety about the true progress of the new organization. As a highly visible member
the transaction. of the top team and the leader most closely
Ankur Agrawal (Ankur_Agrawal@McKinsey.com) is a partner in McKinsey’s New York office, where Edward Kim
(Edward_Kim@McKinsey.com) is an associate partner; Brian Dinneen (Brian_Dinneen@McKinsey.com) is a senior expert in
the Boston office; and Robert Uhlaner (Robert_Uhlaner@McKinsey.com) is a senior partner in the San Francisco office.
will even tap a trusted adviser or former board shifting. All the delays and rework on projects
member to lead the health-check process to gain an prompted many to leave the venture.
outside perspective; this approach can be
particularly effective when the partner compa- It was only after launching a partnership health
nies have tried and failed multiple times to check that the partner companies discovered the
identify root causes of poor performance or issues with the approval process and took steps
missed milestones. to address them, ensuring that everyone knew the
timing of go and no-go decisions. Once the health-
Early is better, but it’s never too late to establish a check process was established, senior leaders on
health-check process. Some partnerships won’t both sides of the business relationship were able
even realize they need a health-check process until to use it to ensure that the approval refinements were
well into the tenure of the relationship—typically working. Indeed, regular partnership checkups
when the partnership hits a speed bump. The can have lasting cultural benefits. They can help
partner companies in one established automotive reduce fear of change among employees and encour
venture, for instance, were stymied by the age them to consider and experiment with frequent,
partnership’s inability to reach its targets. What the small adjustments to the partnership as needed.
partner companies couldn’t see was that teams
were becoming frustrated by the venture’s project-
approval process: they would get the green light The elements of a good health check
on an initiative only to discover a few days later that There are two important elements of a good
requirements had changed, so it was back to the partnership health check. First, teams need
drawing board. It seemed to these managers that access to the most relevant information about the
the partnership’s priorities were constantly partnership (both historical and current
perspectives). Second, they need access to deep- strong hypotheses from executives about why the
dive performance assessments. partnership is underperforming, but the deep-
dive assessment often shows that the root cause of
Information about the partnership a problem is something quite different.
The health check should start with an articulation
and confirmation of the core tenets of the At the healthcare-company alliance mentioned previ
partnership. To achieve this, the team will need ously, for instance, a health-check team conducted
to gather all the basic information about the partner interviews to help determine why they
business relationship—how it started and how it thought milestones were not being met as quickly as
has evolved (noting any team or leadership expected. The health-check team paired those
changes, for instance). A partnership among con responses with a holistic evaluation of the business
sumer companies, for example, was hitting partnership along several success factors: strategy,
many of its targets but much slower than expected. culture and communication, operations, governance
A health-check team comprising leaders from and decision making, economics, and adaptability.
both companies was prepared to restate the purpose
of the partnership and then proceed quickly to a Through this deep-dive assessment, the team
more detailed discussion about operations, which all recognized three trends. First, each partner organi-
considered to be at the crux of the partnership’s zation was contributing resources as agreed;
performance issues. The team was startled to see having clear evidence of this helped soothe tensions
how difficult it was to agree on a high-level and restored executives’ faith in the business
description of the partnership’s strategy and objec relationship. Second, operations were not failing
tives. There was a fundamental disagreement, to meet expectations; they were just doing so
for instance, about which market segments were more slowly than expected. This prompted a sepa
a priority. The team realized that it needed to rate discussion about how individual tasks and
identify and gain agreement on the fundamentals of decisions were being handled and how they could
the partnership before it could address any be managed differently. Finally, the deep-dive
operational shortcomings. assessment revealed that, in some joint initiatives,
partners were contributing overlapping resources,
Deep-dive performance assessments which had created overly complex processes.
In the second phase of the health check, the team This insight prompted the partner organizations to
should conduct a series of leadership interviews simplify them, thereby improving the speed
to get a sense of how senior executives perceive the of execution.
status of the partnership. These perspectives
should be combined with the information gathered
during the first phase of the health check to provide Implementing the health check
both qualitative and quantitative insights on how There is no one-size-fits-all approach to esta-
the partnership is performing along key measures blishing a health-check program for a partnership.
of success. The initial discussions may reveal It will be necessary, though, to build a dashboard
Ankur Agrawal (Ankur_Agrawal@McKinsey.com) is a partner in McKinsey’s New York office, where Eileen Kelly Rinaudo
(Eileen_Kelly_Rinaudo@McKinsey.com) is a senior expert; Kenneth Bonheure (Kenneth_Bonheure@McKinsey.com) is a
senior partner in the Singapore office.
The authors wish to thank Ruth De Backer for her contributions to this article.
© WoodenheadWorld/Getty Images
Exhibit 1
The
The stock
stock market during the
market during the COVID-19
COVID-19 crisis
crisis is
is still
stillfocused
focused on
on the
the long
long term.
term.
Illustrative impact of COVID-19 crisis on stock-market value, index (100 = 2020)
160 160
Base scenario
120 120
Crisis scenario
100 100
2-year
recovery
80 80
–52%
60 60
40 40
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028
0.0 0.0
Healthcare Industrial Other TMT Alphabet, Amazon,
Utility Material Apple, Facebook,
–0.2 and Microsoft –0.2
Travel, logistics, Pharmaceutical and
Financial and infrastructure medical products
services
–0.4 –0.4
0 1 2 3
The stock market doesn’t set a value increased from about 14 percent at the end of 1995
for the market as a whole to about 35 percent in September 2020. Alphabet,
The market values individual companies from many Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft collectively
different sectors, and these companies add up account for 21 percent of the market’s value—up
to the whole. Especially now, performance differs from 2 percent in 1995 and 16 percent at the begin
vastly within and across sectors.1 Companies in ning of 2020 (Exhibit 2). Without these five
oil and gas, banking, and travel, for instance, have megacap companies, the value of the 2020 market
been significantly challenged during the COVID-19 would have increased by only 3 percent (versus
pandemic, and their performance is down. Within 9 percent). And without the TMT sector as a whole,
the retail sector, grocery stores have generally fared there would have been zero growth.
well, but department stores have not. Some
companies in pharmaceuticals and in technology,
media, and telecommunications (TMT) are actually The market value of listed US
doing better now than they were at the beginning companies doesn’t reflect employment
of the year—in part because the introduction of new or GDP levels in the real economy
products and services affects them more than the As we have said, companies from high-growth
health of the broader economy does. As a result, the sectors that have done relatively well during
stock market’s aggregate value remains resilient. the COVID-19 crisis now heavily weight the US stock
market. By contrast, many sectors that have done
This dynamic is even more pronounced now that the worse account for a smaller share of the market and
TMT sector carries greater weight than ever often have few listed companies. Many apparel
before: its share of the top 1,000 companies has retailers and department stores, for example, were
1
See “Market valuation of sectors in 2020” interactive, COVID Response Center, McKinsey.com.
The
The market
market value
value of
of listed
listed US companies doesn’t
doesn’treflect
reflectthe
thedynamics
dynamicsofof the
US real economy.
the US real economy.
Contribution to GDP, % of total Market capitalization,¹ % of total
Technology, media, and telecom
8
Pharmaceutical and medical products 1
Banking, insurance, and financial services 9
35 Technology, media, and telecom
Healthcare 9
Other 37 37 Other
already under pressure before the pandemic, and GDP and employment contributions. One important
their market values were low. The current collapse of difference is that there are no European megacap
these companies’ share prices doesn’t have much companies and fewer technology companies overall.
impact on market aggregates. Many of the construc In Europe, for instance, TMT companies account
tion and professional-services companies, gyms, for only 10 percent of the market, versus 35 percent
hairdressers, hospitals, restaurants, and other in the United States.
service businesses that generate lots of jobs and
contribute materially to GDP aren’t even listed.
The overall stock market can do relatively well even
when employment and GDP are severely The disproportionate weight that the TMT sector
depressed (Exhibit 3). and a handful of companies in that sector carry in the
US market could turn into a risk if investors decide
Similar dynamics are at play in Asia and Europe. to drop their growth expectations for even a few
The European market, for instance, is only 6 percent TMT companies. But the numbers show that the US
below precrisis levels. Variations in performance stock market is neither irrational nor erratic; the
across sectors resemble those we find in the United specific mix of industries in it has played a big role
States, and as in the United States, the composition in making it more resilient than the economy
of the European index doesn’t reflect real-world as a whole.
Marc Goedhart (Marc_Goedhart@McKinsey.com) is a senior expert in McKinsey’s Amsterdam office, Tim Koller
(Tim_Koller@McKinsey.com) is a partner in the Stamford office, and Peter Stumpner (Peter_Stumpner@McKinsey.com)
is an associate partner in the New York office.
The authors wish to thank Vartika Gupta for her contributions to this article.
by Tim Koller
© AP Photo/Nati Harnik
Web <2020>
<buffet>
Exhibit <1> of <1>
Exhibit
Warren Buffett’s decisions, grounded in logic and value, have earned millions
Warren
of dollarsBuffett’s decisions, grounded in logic and value, have earned millions
for investors.
of dollars for investors.
Timeline of Warren Buffett’s career
28,000
1942 Buys first stock, Cities 1992 BH share price tops
Service, at $38; $10,000
sells at $40
1998 BH share price tops
$50,000 24,000
1951 Buys first shares of
GEICO
2006 Commits 85% of
1956 Forms first partnership wealth to Bill & Melinda
Gates Foundation; 20,000
1965 Takes control of BH share price tops
Berkshire Hathaway $100,000
(BH)
2014 BH share price tops
$200,000 16,000
1972 Buys See’s Candy
Shops
2017 BH share price tops
1983 BH share price tops $300,000
$1,000 12,000
2020 Addresses BH
1988 Buys >$1 billion in succession plan
shares of Coca-Cola
8,000
$27,373 $198
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Source: CNBC
portfolio. Instead, he banks on businesses that have out to be the ones that really don’t think that much
steady cash flows and will generate high returns about the shareholders. The two often go hand in
and low risk. And he lets those businesses “stick to hand,” Buffett explains.3
their knitting.” Ever since Buffett bought See’s
Candy Shops in 1972, for instance, the company has Every few years or so, critics will poke holes in
generated an ROI of more than 160 percent per Buffett’s approach to investing. It’s outdated, they
year 1—and not because of significant changes to say, not proactive enough in a world in which
operations, target customer base, or product mix. digital business and economic uncertainty reign. For
The company didn’t stop doing what it did well just so instance, during the 2008 credit crisis, pundits
it could grow faster. Instead, it sends excess cash suggested that his portfolio moves were mistimed,
flows back to the parent company for reinvestment, he held on to some assets for far too long, and
pointing to a lesson for many listed companies: it’s he released others too early, not getting enough in
OK to grow in line with your product markets if you return. And it’s true that Buffett has made some
aren’t confident that you can redeploy the cash flows mistakes; his decision making isn’t infallible. His
you’re generating any better than your investor can. approach to technology investments works for him,
but that doesn’t mean other investors shouldn’t
As Peter Kunhardt, director of the HBO docu seize opportunities to back digital tools, platforms,
mentary Becoming Warren Buffett, said in a 2017 and start-ups—particularly now that the COVID-19
interview, Buffett understands that “you don’t pandemic has accelerated global companies’
have to trade things all the time; you can sit on digital transformations.4
things, too. You don’t have to make many decisions
in life to make a lot of money.”2 And Buffett’s Still, many of Buffett’s theories continue to win the
theory (roughly paraphrased) that the quality of a day. A good number of the so-called inadvisable
company’s senior leadership can signal whether deals he pursued in the wake of the 2008 downturn
the business would be a good investment or not has ended paying off in the longer term. And press
been proved time and time again. “See how reports suggest that Berkshire Hathaway’s profits
[managers] treat themselves versus how they treat are rebounding in the midst of the current economic
the shareholders . . . .The poor managers also turn downturn prompted by the global pandemic.5
1
Theron Mohamed, “Warren Buffett’s favorite business is a little chocolate maker with an 8000% return. Here are 5 reasons why he loves See’s
Candies,” Business Insider, July 12, 2019, markets.businessinsider.com.
2
“Peter Kunhardt,” Charlie Rose, January 31, 2017, charlierose.com.
3
Tae Kim, “Warren Buffett on judging management: ‘See how they treat themselves versus how they treat the shareholders’,” CNBC,
May 9, 2018, cnbc.com.
4
Esther Shein, “COVID-19 is ‘the digital accelerant of the decade,’ forcing businesses to adapt quickly,” TechRepublic, July 15, 2020,
techrepublic.com.
5
Geoffrey Rogow, “Berkshire Hathaway’s profit jumps as market rebound boosts results,” Wall Street Journal, August 8, 2020, wsj.com.
6
Warren E. Buffett and Jamie Dimon, “Short-termism is harming the economy,” Wall Street Journal, June 6, 2018, wsj.com.
Bias Busters
© PM Images/Getty Images
Maginot Line
The remedy
FRANCE War games4 can be an effective hedge against
ITALY competitor neglect. Not just for the military, these
exercises can also help senior business leaders
SPAIN assess potential strategies and determine how well
they are likely to perform given potential com
petitor responses.
1
Will Mitchell and Jennifer Smith, “Playing leap-frog with elephants: EMI, Ltd. and CT scanner competition in the 1970s,” case study,
August 1994, www-personal.umich.edu.
2
Colin Camerer and Dan Lovallo, “Overconfidence and excess entry: An experimental approach,” American Economic Review, March 1999,
Volume 89, Number 1, pp. 306–18, aeaweb.org.
3
Hugh Courtney, 20/20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World, Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press, 2001.
4
Competitive simulation exercises are often referred to as “war games,” likely because the US Army War College uses such exercises extensively
and developed many of the protocols that other organizations use when designing, playing, and debriefing these exercises.
Tim Koller (Tim_Koller@McKinsey.com) is a partner in McKinsey’s Stamford office; Hugh Courtney is a professor of
international business and strategy at Northeastern University and an alumnus of the Washington, DC, office; and Dan Lovallo
is a professor of business strategy at the University of Sydney and a senior adviser to McKinsey.