ALLIANZ GLOBAL CORPORATE & SPECIALTY

ALLIANZ RISK BAROMETER

IDENTIFYING THE MAJOR BUSINESS RISKS FOR 2021
The most important corporate perils for the
next 12 months and beyond, based on the
insight of 2,769 risk management experts
from 92 countries and territories.
About Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty
Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS) is a leading global corporate insurance
carrier and a key business unit of Allianz Group. We provide risk consultancy,
Property-Casualty insurance solutions and alternative risk transfer for a wide spectrum
of commercial, corporate and specialty risks across 10 dedicated lines of business.

Our customers are as diverse as business can be, ranging from Fortune Global 500
companies to small businesses, and private individuals. Among them are not only the
world’s largest consumer brands, tech companies and the global aviation and shipping
industry, but also wineries, satellite operators or Hollywood film productions. They all look to
AGCS for smart answers to their largest and most complex risks in a dynamic, multinational
business environment and trust us to deliver an outstanding claims experience.

Worldwide, AGCS operates with its own teams in 31 countries and through the Allianz
Group network and partners in over 200 countries and territories, employing over 4,450
people. As one of the largest Property-Casualty units of Allianz Group, we are backed by
strong and stable financial ratings. In 2019, AGCS generated a total of €9.1 billion gross
premium globally.

www.agcs.allianz.com/about-us/about-agcs.html
METHODOLOGY
The 10th Allianz Risk Barometer is the biggest
CONTENTS
yet, incorporating the views of a record 2,769
respondents from 92 countries and territories.
The annual corporate risk survey was conducted 3 Methodology
among Allianz customers (global businesses),
brokers and industry trade organizations. It also
surveyed risk consultants, underwriters, senior 4 The Top 10 Global Business Risks
managers and claims experts in the corporate
insurance segment of both Allianz Global
Corporate & Specialty (AGCS) and other 6 Top Business Risks Around The World
Allianz entities.

Respondents were questioned through October 8 The Covid Trio

and November 2020. The survey focused on 1 Business Interruption
large- and small- to mid-size enterprises.
Respondents were asked to select the industry 2 Pandemic Outbreak
about which they were particularly
knowledgeable and to name up to three risks 3 Cyber Incidents
they believed to be most important.
4 & 5 Market Developments And
Most answers were for large-size enterprises
(>$500mn annual revenue) [1,234 respondents 20 Changes In Legislation And
Regulation
44%]. Mid-size enterprises ($250mn to $500mn
revenue) contributed 495 respondents (18%),
while small-size enterprises (<$250mn revenue)
produced 1,040 respondents (38%). Risk experts
21 6 & 7 Natural Catastrophes And Fire,
Explosion
from 22 industry sectors were featured.

Ranking changes in the Allianz Risk Barometer

22 8 Macroeconomic Developments

are determined by positions year-on-year

not percentages.
23 9 Climate Change

All currencies listed in the report are in US$

unless stated.
25 10 Political Risks And Violence

↘ View the full regional, country and industry risk data

26 Contacts

2,769
respondents

92
countries and territories

22
industry sectors

3
Allianz Risk Barometer 2021

THE MOST
IMPORTANT
GLOBAL
BUSINESS
RISKS FOR
2021 1
KEY  2020: 37% (2)
 Risk higher than in 2020
‚ Risk lower than in 2020
Business interruption 41%
(incl. supply chain disruption)
(1) 2020 risk ranking and %

2 3
 2020: 3% (17) ‚ 2020: 39% (1)

Pandemic outbreak 40% Cyber incidents 40%

(e.g. health and workforce issues, (e.g. cyber crime, IT failure/outage,
restrictions on movement) 1 data breaches, fines and penalties)

4
 The most important global business risks for 2021

19% ‚ 2020: 27% (3) 19%

 2020: 21% (5)
Changes in
Market legislation and
developments regulation
(e.g. volatility, intensified (e.g. trade wars and tariffs,

4 5
competition/new entrants, M&A, economic sanctions,
market stagnation, market protectionism, Brexit, Euro-zone
fluctuation) 2 disintegration)

17% 16%

‚ 2020: 21% (4)

Natural ‚ 2020: 20% (6)

catastrophes
6 (e.g. storm, flood, earthquake,
wildfire)
7 Fire,
explosion

13% 13%

 2020: 11% (10) ‚ 2020: 17% (7)

Macroeconomic Climate change/

developments increasing
8 9 volatility of
(e.g. monetary policies, austerity
programs, commodity price
increase, deflation, inflation) 3 weather

11%
Source: Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty
 2020: 9% (11) Figures represent the number of risks selected
as a percentage of all survey responses from
2,769 respondents.
Political risks and All respondents could select up to three risks
violence per industry, which is why the figures do not add

10
(e.g. political instability, war, up to 100%.
terrorism, civil commotion, riots
and looting)
1 Pandemic outbreak ranks higher than cyber incidents
based on the actual number of responses
2 Market developments ranks higher than changes in
legislation and regulation based on the actual number
of responses
↘ Watch our short film about the top 10 risks for 2021 3 Macroeconomic developments ranks higher than
climate change based on the actual number of
responses

↘ View the full Risk Barometer 2021 rankings here

5
Allianz Risk Barometer 2021

ALLIANZ RISK BAROMETER 2021:

TOP THREATS AROUND THE WORLD
The graphics show the top three risks in selected countries and whether each risk is considered to be more or less important than 12 months ago or is in the
same position. Source: Allianz Risk Barometer 2021.

AUSTRALIA BRAZIL CANADA CHINA

1 Pandemic outbreak 1 Cyber incidents 1 Business interruption 1 Pandemic outbreak

45%  47%  47% = 36% 

2 Business interruption 2 Business interruption 2 Pandemic outbreak 2 Business interruption

42% 46% 41% 33%
 
 

3 Changes in legislation 3 Pandemic outbreak 3 Cyber incidents 2 Changes in legislation

and regulation 29%  37%
 and regulation
38% 33%



FRANCE GERMANY INDIA ITALY

1 Cyber incidents 1 Business interruption 1 Cyber incidents 1 Cyber incidents

50% = 50% = 56% = 54% 

2 Business interruption 2 Cyber incidents 2 Business interruption 2 Business interruption

44% = 48% = 39% 45%



3 Pandemic outbreak 3 Pandemic outbreak 3 Pandemic outbreak 3 Pandemic outbreak

42%  35%  38%  28% 

6
 Snapshot: Top business risks around the world in 2021

JAPAN NIGERIA RUSSIA SINGAPORE

1 Cyber incidents 1 Pandemic outbreak 1 Pandemic outbreak 1 Business interruption

47%  38%  53%  53% =

1 Natural catastrophes 2 Cyber incidents 2 Business interruption 2 Cyber incidents

47% = 32%  40%  47% =

3 Business interruption 3 Macroeconomic 3 Changes in legislation 3 Pandemic outbreak

37%
 developments and regulation 43% 

31% 33%
 

SOUTH AFRICA SPAIN UK USA

1 Cyber incidents 1 Cyber incidents 1 Pandemic outbreak 1 Business interruption

48% = 58% = 44%  46% 

2 Business interruption 2 Pandemic outbreak 2 Cyber incidents 2 Pandemic outbreak

39% = 43% 42% 41%

 

3 Pandemic outbreak 3 Business interruption 3 Business interruption 3 Cyber incidents

29% 42% 41% = 33%
 


↘ View all country, regional and industry risk data here 7

Allianz Risk Barometer 2021

THE
COVID 1
TRIO
 2020: 37% (2)

Business interruption 41%

(incl. supply chain disruption)

Business Given the unprecedented disruption caused by the coronavirus outbreak, it is no

interruption
ranking history: surprise that business interruption and pandemic outbreak top the 2021 Allianz
2019: 1
2018: 1
Risk Barometer. Pandemic is the biggest climber this year (up 15 positions), with
2017: 1 cyber incidents ranking a close third. All three risks – and many of the others in this
2016: 1
year’s top 10 – are interlinked, demonstrating the growing vulnerabilities and
Top risk in: uncertainty of our highly globalized and connected world, where actions in one
Americas
Austria place can spread rapidly to have global effects. Looking forward, the pandemic
Cameroon
Canada
shows companies need to prepare for a wider range of business interruption
Denmark triggers and extreme events than previously. Building greater resilience in supply
Germany
Netherlands chains and business models will be critical for managing future exposures.
Singapore
Switzerland
USA Covid-19 has dominated the risk landscape over The pandemic has demonstrated just how
the past year, adding to already growing vulnerable the world is to unpredictable and
concerns for business interruption and cyber risk extreme events and has highlighted the downside
exposures among risk professionals, given the of global production and supply chains. When
increasing reliance on technology and global container shipping was effectively grounded in
supply chains. Prior to the pandemic, business Spring 2020, with fleets taking numerous ships out
interruption had already finished at the top of of service in response to capacity shortfalls, global
the Allianz Risk Barometer seven times over supply chains came under pressure. Subsequently,
the past decade. Meanwhile, cyber risk has components failed to arrive and production came
regularly ranked in the top three corporate to a standstill in many industries, especially in the
perils in recent years, coming first in 2020. automotive sector.

Individual companies, and even entire sectors, A study by Euler Hermes1 found that almost all
have suffered large business interruption events in (94%) companies surveyed reported a Covid-19-
the past, but the pandemic of 2020 is the first induced disruption to their supply chains, while
catastrophic event to hit a modern globalized and more than a quarter (26%) of US companies
interconnected economy. The world has changed reported “severe disruption” as a result of the
fundamentally over recent decades and this has pandemic. This means awareness of business
led to accumulations of risks and new loss triggers. interruption risk is now at the very top

8 1 Euler Hermes, Global Supply Chain Survey – In Search Of Post-Covid-19 Resilience

 The Covid Trio

2 3
 2020: 3% (17) ‚ 2020: 39% (1)

Pandemic outbreak 40% Cyber incidents 40%

(e.g. health and workforce issues, (e.g. cyber crime, IT failure/outage,
restrictions on movement) data breaches, fines and penalties)

organizational level. It has become a discussion magnitude, with many unexpected Pandemic outbreak
ranking history:
not just for risk professionals but for company consequences. For example, a new strain of 2019: 16
boards and shows the need for businesses to Covid-19 even led to the sudden closure of UK 2018: 17
build more resilient supply chains, as well as to ports and borders in late December 2020, 2017: 19
find new ways to address uninsurable risks. coinciding with existing port congestion during 2016: 19
Covid-19 is a reminder that not all perils are the Christmas period and the end of the Brexit Top risk in:
insurable, and that risk management and transition period. Other potential triggers for Africa & Middle East
business continuity planning play a critical role large-scale business interruption events in future Australia
in helping businesses survive extreme events. could include environmental or natural disasters, Bulgaria
China
further disease outbreaks, a large-scale cyber- Colombia
The outbreak has also shown that business attack or blackout, or even a solar storm. Croatia
interruption is highly correlated with many of the Greece
Hong Kong
risks of most concern to businesses today as The consequences of the pandemic are also
Hungary
identified in the Allianz Risk Barometer, such as likely to heighten business interruption risks in Kenya
natural catastrophes and climate change, other areas in coming years. Even as the Morocco
political risks and civil unrest, and even rapid immediate health risks of the pandemic ebb Nigeria
Poland
changes in markets, in addition to cyber. with vaccinations, the accelerated push to Portugal
digitalization will likely bring new risks, while the Romania
“Business interruption is the consequence – it is economic, societal and political repercussions of Russia
the impact on the balance sheet – caused by the pandemic could also bring sources of UK
perils,” says Philip Beblo, Global Practice Group disruption for years to come.
Leader Utilities & Services, IT Communication
at AGCS. “Given the widespread disruption “Businesses have seen the consequences of the
caused by Covid-19, it is no surprise that it is pandemic – the loss of revenue and disruption to
ranked as the highest peril, while cyber was production and supply chains – which has
already one of the most concerning potential resulted in heightened awareness of the potential
causes of business interruption.” for losses from both traditional physical sources
of business interruption and non-physical
One of the big lessons learned from the damage triggers. The pandemic has shown that
pandemic is that extreme business interruption business interruption risk is not isolated to a
events are not just theoretical, but a real geography or sector, and that it can be
possibility. While a “known-risk”, the coronavirus overarching and span different geographies,
pandemic was a surprise event of global markets and customers,” says Beblo.

9
Allianz Risk Barometer 2021

COVID-19 these consequences will influence business

interruption risks in the coming months

HEIGHTENS and years.

BUSINESS The knock-on effects of the pandemic can also

be seen further down the rankings in this year’s

INTERRUPTION Risk Barometer. A number of the climbers in

2021 – such as market developments,

AND CYBER macroeconomic developments and political

risks and violence – are in large part a

FEARS consequence of the coronavirus outbreak. For

example, the pandemic was accompanied by
civil unrest in the US related to the Black Lives
The rollout of coronavirus vaccines provides some Matter movement, while anti-government
hope that the worst effects of the pandemic will protest movements simmer in parts of Latin
subside in 2021, although measures to contain America, Middle East and Asia, driven by
the virus are expected to remain in place for inequality and a lack of democracy.
some time yet. However, the economic, political
and societal consequences of the pandemic are “Disruption associated with political, economic
likely to be a source of heightened business and social trends, like strikes, protests and civil
interruption risk in the years ahead. unrest, is often underestimated. The economic
consequences of the pandemic could fuel further
When asked which change caused by the political and social unrest in 2021 and beyond,
pandemic will most impact businesses, Allianz with potential implications for supply chains and
Risk Barometer respondents cited the business interruption,” says Beblo.
acceleration towards greater digitalization,
followed by more remote working, growth in the Rising insolvency rates could also affect supply
number of insolvencies, restrictions on travel/ chains. According to Euler Hermes2 , the bulk of
less business travel and increasing cyber risk. All insolvencies will come in 2021. The trade credit

2 Euler Hermes, Calm Before The Storm: Covid-19 And The Business Insolvency Time Bomb, July 16, 2020

10
 The Covid Trio

insurer’s global insolvency index is expected to hit

a record high for bankruptcies, up 35% by the end
of 2021, with top increases expected in the US, THE COVID TRIO:
Brazil, China and core European countries such WHICH CAUSES OF BUSINESS INTERRUPTION DO
as the UK, Italy, Belgium and France. Fraud and COMPANIES FEAR MOST?
theft have also been on the rise during the
pandemic, as criminals take advantage of Top six answers
business disruption and lax security.
Pandemic outbreak
(e.g. health and workforce 59%
“The direct effects of the pandemic could recede issues, restrictions on movement)
in 2021 but the consequences of Covid-19 will be
Cyber incidents (e.g. cyber
with us for some time after,” says Beblo. “The crime, IT failure/outage, data 46%
economic effects of coronavirus could affect breaches, fines and penalties)

demand while suppliers could file for bankruptcy. Natural catastrophes

Cyber risks will also be a more significant source (e.g. storm, flood, 31%
of business interruption risk going forward, as the earthquake, wildfire)

pandemic has hastened digitalization and

remote working.” Fire, explosion 29%

“Displaced workforces create new opportunities Supplier failure,

for increasingly well-organized and funded lean processes 25%
(e.g. single supplier sourcing)
cyber criminals to exploit and gain access to
networks and sensitive information,” says Georgi
Pachov, Head of Portfolio Steering and Economic policy, sanctions 15%
Pricing at AGCS. “At the same time the potential
impact from human error or technical failure
Source: Allianz Risk Barometer 2021
incidents – already one of the most frequent Figures represent the percentage of answers of all participants who responded (1,140)
drivers of cyber insurance claims – may also Figures do not add up to 100% as up to three risks could be selected.
be heightened.”

THE COVID TRIO:

WHAT CHANGES DO YOU EXPECT TO SEE FROM THE
PANDEMIC THAT WILL MOST IMPACT YOUR COMPANY?
Top six answers

Acceleration towards
55%
greater digitalization

More remote working 50%

Growth in the number of

insolvencies
38%

Restriction on travel/less
business travel 36%

Increasing cyber risk 34%

More business interruptions

from government-imposed 33%
lockdowns

Source: Allianz Risk Barometer 2021

Figures represent the percentage of answers of all participants who responded (2,769)
Figures do not add up to 100% as up to three risks could be selected.

11
Allianz Risk Barometer 2021

CYBER, A “BLACK The digitalization of supply chains could

potentially reduce the frequency of business

SWAN” IN THE interruption events, but it may also lead to more

severe disruption when the underlying

MAKING ? technology goes wrong. “Digitalization increases

transparency in the supply chain, which means
organizations can react faster and better,” says
Pre-Covid, both society and business were Pachov. “However, a cyber-attack or a technical
already growing more dependent and reliant failure causing a major outage could lead to a
on technology and intangible assets and this severe business interruption event.”
trend is likely to accelerate as companies
change business models and ways of working. The pandemic may have opened a “Pandora’s
Box” of cyber business interruption risks, according
Covid-19 will likely spark a period of innovation to Pachov. “The pandemic has demonstrated the
and market disruption, accelerating the need to ‘expect the unexpected’ and watch out for
adoption of technology, leading to regulatory the pitfalls of digitalization. We may be about to
changes, as well as hastening the demise of open a box of ‘Black Swan’ events, with
incumbents or traditional sectors, and giving unexpected consequences from the pandemic,
rise to new competitors. A survey by McKinsey 3 such as future cloud outages.”
found that companies may have accelerated
the digitalization of supply chains and “Everybody is rushing to embrace technology
operations by three to four years, while the and embark on digital transformation, which
importance of digital products has accelerated could put technology companies under
by seven years. immense pressure to meet growing demand for
cloud and other IT services. Tech companies will
Society’s growing reliance on technology and be working close to capacity and there will
the threat posed by cyber is a particular area come a point when technology and servicing will
of concern. Technology is a double-edged become stretched or reach their limitations. If
sword for business interruption. While it can be digitalization is not done properly [with due
a useful tool for business continuity, for consideration for the risk/building resilience]
example by switching to remote working and then a future ‘Black Swan’ scenario involving
process monitoring or online sales and the failure of a major cloud provider could
servicing, it also brings new risks. become a reality,” says Beblo.

12 3 McKinsey & Company, How Covid-19 Has Pushed Companies Over The Technology Tipping Point And Transformed Business Forever
 The Covid Trio

TRADITIONAL
BUSINESS
INTERRUPTION
RISKS STILL NEED
TO BE MANAGED
The pandemic has added to already growing
awareness of business interruption exposures
triggered by non-physical damage, such as
cyber, blackouts, political risk, or disruption
caused by a third-party supplier.

However, natural catastrophes, extreme

weather and fire remain the main causes of
business interruption for many industries, and
are the biggest threat for manufacturing and
industrial plant and equipment.

“Despite the ongoing trend for digitalization,

traditional physical risks of fire and extreme
weather will not disappear. Risk management
has improved but fire remains an ever-present
risk and a major cause of business interruption.
Losses can be very large and we continue to see
a trend for severity of business interruption
losses over time,” says Beblo.

The cost of large business interruption claims

following fire and extreme weather has been
increasing with the trend towards higher values
and more concentrated supply chains.
Traditional business interruption exposures are
also rising with climate change, as more volatile
and severe weather brings the increased risk of
storms, floods and wildfires.

“Just because emerging risks like cyber are

coming onto the stage, it does not mean that
traditional business interruption triggers are any
less dangerous,” says Beblo. “They will be just as
relevant going forward, and in the case of
climate change will become even more of a
threat to businesses in the future. The climate is
changing and we will increasingly see risks such
as more intense hailstorms, floods, tornadoes
and hurricanes in areas that are not always
associated with such extreme events.”

13
Allianz Risk Barometer 2021

THE COVID TRIO:

WHICH ACTIONS ARE YOUR
COMPANY TAKING IN ORDER TO DE-
RISK SUPPLY CHAINS AND MAKE
THEM MORE RESILIENT IN THE FACE
OF PANDEMIC RISK?
Top six answers

Initiating/improving
business continuity 62%
management

Developing

BUSINESSES TO alternative/multiple
suppliers
45%

BUILD MORE Investing in digital

supply chains
32%

RESILIENT SUPPLY Intensifying supplier

selection, monitoring,

CHAINS auditing and risk

31%
assessment

Inventory/safety
17%
One positive change to emerge from the stock management

pandemic is a growing recognition of the need

Regional
to manage globalization better and build more diversification of 17%
resilient supply chains. suppliers

According to Allianz Risk Barometer Source: Allianz Risk Barometer 2021

Figures represent the percentage of answers of all participants who
respondents, improving business continuity responded (1,100)
management is the main action companies are Figures do not add up to 100% as up to three risks could be selected.
taking in order to de-risk their supply chains and
make them more resilient in the face of
pandemic risk. This is followed by developing
alternative/multiple suppliers, investing in digital According to a survey of European risk
supply chains, intensifying supplier selection, managers 4 , 46% expect to make changes to
auditing and risk assessment and inventory/ supply chains following the pandemic, of which
safety stock management. 70% intend to find alternative suppliers. The
Euler Hermes Global Supply Chain Survey found
The coronavirus has added to existing pressures that a similar number (62%) of US and European
to rethink supply chains, which in recent decades companies are considering looking for new
have become increasingly global and complex. suppliers, while 30% are in favor of near-shoring.
Insurers have experienced a significant increase In fact, 20% of companies surveyed consider
in the severity of business interruption claims in finding new suppliers at home.
industries like automotive, electronics and
manufacturing as modern manufacturing “Clients are looking to de-risk their supply chains
methods, reduced stock levels and increased to achieve operational resilience. Covid-19
reliance on fewer suppliers have driven up the showed just how vulnerable global supply
costs associated with fires and chains have become and highlights how the
natural catastrophes. most agile companies and those that were
quickest to react to the pandemic were those
“In reaction to the pandemic we are seeing that had an adaptive and embedded risk
clients make changes to their supply chains, management approach,” says Beblo.
including nearshoring (bringing production to a
What is a digital nearby country) and some reshoring and Increased resilience of supply chains is to be
supply chain? changing the locations of supplies, particularly welcomed. It will not only help with insurability
The result of the for US companies. Companies are increasingly of supply chain exposures, but it will also help
application of thinking about the consequences of events like clients react faster to market trends. “It’s not just
electronic
natural catastrophes and civil unrest, and how about limiting insurance claims, more resilient
technologies to every
aspect of the end- quickly they will be able to find alternative supply chains should translate to more
to-end supply chain. suppliers,” says Beblo. successful companies,” says Pachov.

14 4 FERMA, Risk Management, Recovery and Resilience, Covid-19 Survey Report 2020
 The Covid Trio

RESILIENCE
AND BUSINESS
CONTINUITY
PLANNING
CRITICAL FOR
MANAGING
FUTURE
EXPOSURES
Business continuity planning has come into
sharp focus during the pandemic. Many
companies found their plans were quickly
overwhelmed by the fast pace of the pandemic Meeting the challenge of business interruption
and changes in public health measures. risk will require risk professionals to find ways of
However, many were also quick to set up “war- quantifying exposures, including areas like non-
rooms” or dedicated Covid-19 response physical damage business interruption and
committees that brought together key emerging risks.
corporate functions and senior management.
“Businesses need to focus more on the
Business continuity planning needs to become quantification of business interruption triggers
more holistic and dynamic, according to and their potential impact, and not just rely on
Thomas Varney Regional Manager of Risk high level risk management strategies or ‘blue
Consulting, North America, at AGCS. “Plans sky’ thinking. They need to develop the tools and
need to be constantly updated and tested, systems needed to understand business
including having alternative suppliers available interruption triggers and measure the impact,”
for raw and intermediate materials. They need says Pachov.
to be cross-functional and integrated into an
organization’s risk management and “The pandemic has shown there is still a lot of
strategic processes.” work to be done on business continuity and
business resilience,” adds Beblo. “In order to
As companies prepare for future extreme manage the risks and develop solutions, they
business interruption events, they will need to will need to collect data, utilize analytics, and
consider a broader range of scenarios than then consider what is insurable. Risk
they do at present. Identifying and management today is very good at insurable
understanding potential “Black Swan” events risks, but could do better when it comes to the
will be challenging, but the key to survival will non-insurable risks, like intangible assets, supply
be the ability for businesses to respond quickly. chains and reputation.
allianz global corporate & SpecialtY

insights @ AgCs

“The best way for businesses to approach these “Resilience will be critical to surviving future
types of situations is through business continuity business interruption events. It needs to be
scenario planning that challenges working embedded in the organization’s culture and helps COViD-19 – ChAnging
environments and the ability of supply chains to make the remaining business interruption CLAiMs PAttERns
The coronavirus outbreak has posed a unique test for commercial insurance
claims. Historical patterns have been upended, while claims teams have had to
maintain service levels during a period of significant operational challenges.

under various scenarios,” says Varney. “The insurable. Resilience is also good for insurance.
This report identifies some of the new claims trends that have materialized as
a result of the virus, assesses the prospect for future notification activity and
highlights how claims teams have responded in this new environment.

ability to understand and proactively handle The insurance industry cannot take away all
potential business impact scenarios is better challenges but we can work in partnership with
resolved when the crisis is not upon a business.” clients. We are able to underwrite some of the ↘ Find out more
biggest drivers of business interruption – such as about how Covid-19
“Companies need to think ahead and consider natural catastrophes and fire, as well as some is changing claims
trends and risk
how their business, market, customers and cyber – and offer risk engineering services and
exposures for
suppliers might change in a given scenario,” alternative risk transfer solutions to support our companies and their
adds Pachov. clients in these challenging times.” insurers.

15
Allianz Risk Barometer 2021

3‚
40%

2020: 39% (1)

FOCUS ON CYBER INCIDENTS
Cyber incidents may have slipped to third position but concern remains high with
Ranking history more respondents picking it as a top peril than in 2020. Cyber crime now costs the
2019: 2 global economy over $1trn1 – more than one per cent of global GDP – up 50% from
2018: 2
2017: 3 two years ago. Meanwhile, the threat of business interruption, whether from
2016: 3
ransomware attacks, technical failure or via the supply chain, more severe
Top risk in: consequences from data breaches and risks emerging from the acceleration of
Asia Pacific
Europe digitalization post-Covid-19 loom large.
Belgium
Brazil
Denmark DATA BREACHES AND RANSOMWARE “Data breaches remain the biggest concern for
France
Hungary
BIGGEST THREATS most companies, particularly those that deal
India with large amounts of personal data, such as
Italy According to Allianz Risk Barometer retailers, healthcare providers and banks,” says
Japan respondents, data breaches rank as the cyber Catharina Richter, Global Head of the Allianz
South Africa exposure companies are most concerned about Cyber Center of Competence, which is
South Korea
Spain over the next year, followed by IT vulnerability embedded into AGCS. “However, ransomware
Sweden due to increased remote working and attacks are an ongoing threat for an increasing
ransomware attacks, which have been number of industries, such as manufacturing
increasing in both number and severity. Data and service sectors, and can be a cause of
breaches already rank as the top cause of cyber significant business interruption. Ransomware
incidents for businesses, followed by external incidents and privacy cases will remain
events such as ransomware attacks, while prevalent issues for companies in 2021.
employee errors ranks third, reflecting the fact Attackers continue to innovate while regulatory
that mistakes and technical problems are the enforcement and fines for data breaches
most frequent generator of cyber insurance continue their upwards trend. New cyber loss
claims by number, according to AGCS analysis. scenarios are constantly emerging.”

16 1 McAfee and the Center for Strategic and International Studies, The Hidden Costs of Cybercrime, December 7, 2020
 3 Cyber Incidents

DATA AND PRIVACY COSTS RISE

The consequences of data breaches are CYBER INCIDENTS:
increasing, with higher fines and regulatory WHICH CYBER EXPOSURES CONCERN YOUR COMPANY
costs, and growing third party liability. Under the MOST OVER THE NEXT YEAR?
General Data Protection Regulations (GDPR)
the number of fines have been growing in Top six answers
Europe – almost 200 were issued by authorities
between March 2019 and May 2020 – while Data breaches 56%
jurisdictions around the world have been
introducing stricter data laws, most recently IT vulnerability due to
California, Canada and Brazil. Increasingly, increased remote working
53%
breaches and regulatory actions are followed
by litigation, with a number of group actions Increase in ransomware
attacks
48%
now pending in the UK as well as the US.
Increase in business email
33%
“Following on from the GDPR in Europe, we are spoofing attacks
seeing more stringent data protection and Disruption from failure of
privacy regulation around the world, as well as digital supply chains, cloud 32%
technology/service platforms
much tougher enforcement. Fines have increased
substantially under the GDPR, but there are also Network slowness and
unavailability due to high 21%
reputational and liability consequences of a data usage
breach that substantially add to the costs,” says
Marek Stanislawski, Global Cyber Source: Allianz Risk Barometer 2021
Figures represent the percentage of answers of all participants who responded (1,096)
Underwriting Lead at AGCS.. Figures do not add up to 100% as up to three risks could be selected.

RANSOMWARE ATTACKS MORE

FREQUENT, LARGER AND DAMAGING
Prevalent forms of ransomware – including ransomware incidents is business interruption
Sodinokibi, Maze, Ragnarok and Ryuk – have and the cost of restoring data and systems.
caused major disruption for manufacturers,
public sector entities and healthcare providers, The total cost of ransomware demands in 2019
shipping companies, utilities, technology and was $25bn, but this increased to $170bn when
professional services firms recently. the cost of downtime was included, according to
Emsisoft 3 . On average, a ransom incident can
Almost half a million ransomware incidents result in 16 days downtime.
were reported globally in 2019 and this trend is
set to continue. For criminals, it is a very “If systems are down for a week or two, losses
attractive mode of attack – low cost, low risk can be significant,” says Jens Krickhahn, a
and very profitable. Regional Cyber Practice Leader at AGCS. “We
recently heard of a claim for a ransomware
Such attacks are also becoming more ambitious. attack against a company where the cost of
Where hackers once hit small- to mid-size restoring systems was under €10mn, but the BI
companies, they are now also targeting large loss was €50mn ($60mn).”
companies, where the rewards are highest. A
noticeable recent trend has been the added MITIGATING LOSSES
dimension of privacy and hackers’ willingness to
exploit brand and reputation. Having encrypted In response to the growing threat, AGCS has
critical or personal identifiable data, cyber stepped up its underwriting focus when needed,
criminals threaten to release the data or publicize for example on ransomware exposures,
the breach if demands are not met. Ransomware differentiating between firms that have strong
demands, increased by almost a third between the controls and processes in place to mitigate the risk.
second and third quarters of 2020, according to Regular patching and awareness training can help
incident response firm Coveware, while almost 50% deter attacks, while maintaining secure backups
of cases included the threat to release stolen data2 . can significantly reduce losses. A dedicated
business continuity plan outlining what a company
While ransom demands attract the most public needs to do in event of an attack to minimize
attention, the biggest cost driver for disruption can also help.

2 Coveware Quarterly Ransomware Report, Ransomware Demands Continue To Rise As Data Exfiltration Becomes Common And Maze Subdues, November 4, 2020
3 Emsisoft, The Cost of Ransomware in 2020: A Country-by-Country Analysis, February 11, 2020 17
Allianz Risk Barometer 2021

“Only a few companies end up paying ransom outage, technical glitch or human error could
demands, usually those that are least prepared. result in a significant business interruption loss,
Organizations that have good patch while a cyber incident impacting a supplier
management and backup processes are able to could cascade through the supply chain,
rebuild systems and get back to business resulting in business interruption for
quickly without having to pay ransoms,” manufacturers,” says Krickhahn.
says Krickhahn.
AGCS analysis of over 1,700 cyber-related
Training is particularly important. “People are the insurance claims over the past five years
last wall of protection. If employees are able to shows that business interruption is the main
identify phishing mails they can avoid huge cost driver behind losses, accounting for
claims,” says Krickhahn. “IT security, technical around 60% of the value of these claims.
processes and people go hand in hand when
combatting the growing problem of ransomware.” “In Europe, we now see more cyber insurance
claims with a business interruption impact
BUSINESS INTERRUPTION than we do for [data breaches] third party
AND “BLACK SWANS” liability. This is a trend that is likely to continue
for the foreseeable future,” says Krickhahn.
Awareness of cyber business interruption has
been increasing with the number of major At its most extreme, cyber may also present a
outages and ransomware attacks in recent years. systemic or catastrophic risk. A major blackout
In this year’s Allianz Risk Barometer, cyber ranks or cloud outage could have a massive impact,
as the second most feared cause of business simultaneously affecting companies around
interruption behind pandemic outbreak. the world. “Future ‘Black Swan’ events
cannot be ruled out. It will be important to
“Companies are increasingly realizing that identify and prepare for such scenarios
business interruption and business continuity are quickly before they become true events,”
critical to digitalization. A major cyber-attack, says Krickhahn.

18
 3 Cyber Incidents

CYBER INCIDENTS:
WHAT ARE THE MAIN CAUSES OF CYBER INCIDENTS?

Top three answers

Data or security breach (e.g.

access to/deletion of personal/ 72%
confidential information)

External cyber event (e.g.

espionage, hacker attack, 68%
ransomware, denial of service)

Errors or mistakes by
employees
34%

Source: Allianz Risk Barometer 2021

Figures represent the percentage of answers of all participants who responded (1,096)
Figures do not add up to 100% as up to three risks could be selected.

DIGITALIZATION AND “DEEPFAKES” the first wave of lockdowns in April 2020, the
FBI reported a 300% increase in cyber
The coronavirus pandemic is likely to add to incidents alone.
existing cyber concerns, given the increasing
reliance on technology and online sales,. Even Many months later, companies should now have
the arrival of the vaccine has brought another the right processes and protections in place to
element of risk with recent attacks against enable safer remote working. However, there is
approval authority, the European Medicines a risk that companies will reduce IT budgets and
Agency, as well as labs handling Covid-19 tests. security spend if the pandemic subsides and
people return to offices, meaning vulnerabilities
Acceleration towards greater digitalization was could re-emerge. Businesses need to prepare for
the change caused by the pandemic that the next event and not let their guard down,
Allianz Risk Barometer respondents believe says Krickhahn.
will most impact their company, followed by
more remote working. Cyber risk was once seen only as an issue for
computers and software, but with the
“A lot of change is being forced upon companies acceleration of digitalization it is increasingly
and the pace of adoption will only increase with expanding to include everything from cars to
the pandemic. Cyber security and business factories to smart devices in our homes.
continuity may struggle to keep up,”
says Krickhahn. “Emerging areas like artificial intelligence (AI) –
such as “deepfakes”, where realistic media
The shift to remote working during the early content such as photos, audio and video is
stages of the lockdown was accompanied by a modified or falsified by AI – the digitalization of
reduction in cyber security – some firms turned supply chains, automation and the ‘Internet of
off multi-factor authentication – while Things’, as well as new ways of working, could all
↘ Find out more
employees working from home are more provide opportunities for hackers and open up about cyber risk
susceptible to phishing attacks. At the peak of new vulnerabilities,” says Krickhahn. trends

19
Allianz Risk Barometer 2021

19% ‚ 2020: 27% (3) 19%

 2020: 21% (5)
Changes in
Market legislation and
developments regulation
(e.g. volatility, intensified (e.g. trade wars and tariffs,

4 5
competition/new entrants, M&A, economic sanctions,
market stagnation, market protectionism, Brexit, Euro-zone
fluctuation) disintegration)

As the world continues in the throes of an economic “Covid-19 may have caused some delays of the regulation
downturn amid a disruptive coronavirus pandemic, market train but it did not stop or even derail it, quite the opposite:
developments climbs one position year-on-year in the 2021 promises to become a very busy year in terms of new
Allianz Risk Barometer, reflecting the risk of rising legislation and regulation,” says Ludovic Subran, Chief
insolvency rates following the pandemic. Growth in the Economist at Allianz.
number of insolvencies (38%) is the third most impactful
change companies expect to see from the pandemic after Two areas stand out for their significant business impact:
acceleration towards greater digitalization (55%) and data and sustainability. Access and use of data determine
more remote working (50%) (see page 11). the competitive landscape in the 21st century and new rules
aim at creating a more level playing field. This includes, for
There were six “mega” bankruptcy filings involving example, a new framework for artificial intelligence and
businesses with at least $1bn in reported assets during the cyber security, as well as new standards and rules for digital
first quarter of 2020, 31 in the second, and 15 in the third, finance and digital services and platforms.
for a total of 52, compared with a 2005 to 2019 quarterly
average of five, according to Cornerstone Research1 . The Meanwhile, in order for a successful transition to a zero-
impact of a gradual phasing out of temporary policy carbon economy to happen integrating sustainability
measures designed to support companies is one of the key considerations into all business activities is key. To achieve
concerns for 2021. this goal, a certain level of regulation is necessary. In
particular, improving the availability, comparability and
The bulk of insolvencies is still to come in 20212 according reliability of reported non-financial data – including
to Euler Hermes, with its global insolvency index likely to climate-related key performance indicators based on
hit a record high for bankruptcies, up 35% by the end of greenhouse gas emissions – would help to steer
2021 , with half of countries recording a new high since the sustainable investments successfully and to facilitate the
2008 financial crisis. The top increases are expected to be green transformation.
recorded in the US (up 57% by 2021, compared to 2019),
Brazil (up 45%), China (up 40%) and core European “True, new sustainability disclosure requirements entail
countries such as the UK (up 43%), Spain (up 41%), Italy (up additional costs,” says Subran. “But the rewards are huge,
27%), Belgium (up 26%) and France (up 25%). for the companies which better understand their long-term
environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks and for
Further, the pandemic will likely spark a period of the societies at large which can define a clearer path to
innovation and market disruption, accelerating the carbon-neutrality.”
adoption of technology, hastening the demise of
incumbents and traditional sectors, giving rise to
opportunities for new competitors.

1 Cornerstone Research, Trends In Large Corporate Bankruptcy And Financial Distress 2005 – Q3 2020
2 Euler Hermes, Calm Before The Storm: Covid19 And The Business Insolvency Time Bomb, July 16, 2020

20
 Risks 6-7

17% 16%

‚ 2020: 21% (4)

Natural ‚ 2020: 20% (6)

catastrophes
6 (e.g. storm, flood, earthquake,
wildfire)
7 Fire,
explosion*

Devastating wildfires in California and Australia and the While the Covid-19 pandemic has introduced a newcomer
record-breaking number of tropical storms in the Atlantic to the most important business risks in the Allianz Risk
Ocean were among the natural catastrophes to dominate Barometer, pushing fire and explosion perils slightly down
the headlines in 2020. No previous Atlantic hurricane the rankings compared to previous years, they still rank
season on record has produced as many named storms among the top 10. And with good reason.
(30) of which 13 developed into hurricanes. Meanwhile,
Australia suffered its worst-ever wildfire season, while five Large-scale events such as the devastating explosion in
of California’s six largest fires occurred in 2020, including the port of Beirut, Lebanon in August 2020, which has
its first “gigafire”, the August Complex Fire which burned resulted in total damages of up to $15bn, according to
more than one million acres. industry estimates, and around $1.5bn in insured losses to
date, or the catastrophic explosion in the port of Tianjin in
However, 2020 was also the third consecutive year without China five years ago, which caused insured losses
a single major nat cat event causing significant (economic/ estimated between $2.5bn and $3.5bn, remind both
insured) damages, such as Hurricane Harvey in 2017. industry and the general public of the terrible impact
Despite the record-breaking hurricane season, most US industrial fires and explosions can have.
landfalls did not hit densely populated areas in 2020,
resulting in relatively low insured losses of $20bn+. In many cases it’s not even the material damage of such
an incident – although this is often costly – that results in
That said, aggregated losses from multiple small- to the biggest losses. A major fire or explosion can prevent
medium-sized events still led to widespread devastation companies from servicing their customers or resuming
and considerable overall insured losses. Natural operations for some time and such incidents are the most
catastrophes caused around $80bn of global insured frequent drivers of business interruption claims in
losses in 2020, up more than 40% from 20191 , mostly from particular. In fact, fires and explosions were the number
secondary peril events such as severe convective storms one cause of losses for businesses worldwide over a five-
(thunderstorms with tornadoes, floods and hail) and year period up until the end of 2018, according to Allianz
wildfires, primarily in North America. analysis, causing in excess of €14bn ($15.7bn) worth of
insured damage from more than 9,500 claims.
“The frequency of major loss-causing non-weather-related
nat cat events, such as earthquakes or tsunamis, has While risk assessment continues to evolve in respect of fire
decreased in recent years,” says Carina Pfeuffer, and explosion, it is unlikely that such risks can ever be
Catastrophe Risk Analyst at AGCS. “Consequently, the completely eliminated. Prudent fire mitigation practices –
negative perception of these cat risks, as indicated by the regularly assessed and updated – including preventative
level of importance in the Allianz Risk Barometer, has measures, fire extinguishing methods and contingency
also declined. Simultaneously, in 2020, unlike any year planning therefore remain essential for all businesses to
before, with Covid-19 decelerating business around the lower the risk of loss from an incident.
globe, other risks such as ‘pandemic outbreak’ and
‘market developments’ have become more visible.” *not including wildfires

Nevertheless, nat cat risks remain in the top three business

risks in many regions, particularly across Asia – including
South Korea, Hong Kong and Japan – which is frequently
affected by meteorological, geophysical, climatological
and hydrological events. Further secondary perils, such as
severe floods in provinces along the Yangtze River in China
from May, resulted in one of the biggest insured losses in
Asia during 2020 ($2bn) 2 .

1 Munich Re, Record Hurricane Seasons And Major Wildfires – The Natural Disaster Figures For 2020, January 7, 2021
2 Swiss Re, Institute Estimates Usd 83 Billion Global Insured Catastrophe Losses In 2020, The Fifth-Costliest On Record, December 15, 2020 21
Allianz Risk Barometer 2021

13%

 2020: 11% (10)

Macroeconomic
developments
8
(e.g. monetary policies, austerity
programs, commodity price
increase, deflation, inflation)

Interest rates will remain low for a very long time in the US
and for an even longer period in Europe. According to
Allianz Research estimates, the US Federal Reserve System
is likely to envisage a first rate hike from Q3 2023 only.
Although other central banks tend to follow suit most of the
time, the European Central Bank (ECB) will have a hard time
doing so because the perspective of the Fed’s monetary
policy normalization is likely to awaken the beast of
sovereign debt risk in Europe. This might incite the ECB to
extend its unconventional monetary program beyond the
Fed’s own program to contain Euro-zone sovereign spreads.

“For markets, low interest rates are a sweet poison,” says

Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist at Allianz. “They strip
markets and banks of their ability to price and allocate
resources appropriately and encourage excessive risk-
taking by both debtors and investors.”

Equity markets are in bubble territory as earnings

expectations have decoupled from fundamentals and
credit spreads remain compressed despite record high
levels of non-financial corporate debt. Sovereign spreads,
too, remain muted despite the same situation in respect to
record high public debt.

For the short-term economic outlook, confidence prevails.

In 2021, global GDP should strongly rebound by +4.4%
compared to the expected contraction of -4.5% in 2020.
Besides huge ongoing monetary and fiscal impulses, the
main growth driver in 2021 will be a positive “confidence
shock”, triggered by the vaccination campaign, boosting
consumption, investment and trade. In this growth
scenario, the upside and downside risks are substantial. A
fast and successful vaccination campaign could lift spirits
even more, adding 2 percentage points to GDP growth.

The driver would be consumption powered by the

unleashing of excess savings of households. In the Euro-
zone alone, around €500bn ($597bn) is estimated to be
sitting on the sidelines, waiting to be spent. A botched
vaccine campaign, however, would work in the
opposite direction.

The mid- to long-term outlook is more pessimistic. In

particular, the gigantic global debt burden of $277trn in
2020 will weigh on economic growth potential for the time
being.

22
 Risk 9

13%

‚ 2020: 17% (7)

Climate change/
increasing
9 volatility of
weather

Climate change falls two positions in this year’s Allianz RECOVERY, RISKS AND RESILIENCE
Risk Barometer as the risk concerns of respondents are
superseded by the Covid-19 pandemic. The virus It is essential that the extensive policy measures for
represented an immediate threat in 2020 – for both economic recovery and stimulus packages following
individual safety and businesses, so, it is unsurprising Covid-19 meet both the recovery of the economy and the
pandemic outbreak has rocketed up the rankings at the goals of the Paris Climate Protection Agreement – the
expense of other perils. And it will likely remain a priority target of which is to keep the increase in global average
risk through 2021 until vaccination comes into effect and temperatures to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels,
businesses can return to a post-pandemic new normal. and to try to limit the rise to 1.5°C.

What the pandemic and climate change have in It was not that long ago that climate-related strategies or
common is that they are both global systemic risks. goals were regarded as afterthoughts for many
However, compared to Covid-19, climate change is a businesses. In future, it will likely be impossible for
catastrophe in slow motion with many causes and companies to be successful without them. Institutions such
effects. While the virus may have inadvertently led to a as the International Monetary Fund and the European
minor reduction in emissions in 2020 due to less traffic, Central Bank (ECB) see climate change as a significant
travel and industrial activity, the need to combat and financial risk that could even endanger the stability of the
prevent climate change and global warming remains financial market, with “business as usual” scenarios leading
as high as ever, as a series of recent unwelcome to sudden and drastic corrections to “overvalued” fossil
milestones underline. fuel assets.

The past six years have been the hottest since records Then there are a host of other drivers that are increasing
began, with 2020 being both the hottest in Europe and the pressure on companies to be more climate-conscious:
the joint hottest year ever recorded, according to Ever more engaged employees keen to know their
Europe’s Copernicus Climate Service1 . In addition there employer is doing the right thing environmentally;
were record-breaking hurricane and wildfire seasons in institutional investors such as pension funds and asset
North America and Australia respectively, while managers pushing for concrete measures to protect the
California saw its first “gigafire” (see page 21). At the climate, like CO2 reduction targets or an exit from the coal
same time, severe thunderstorms and storms in Europe industry; shareholder groups ensuring climate issues are
and North America, often with hail or tornadoes, are front and center at general meetings; and potential
becoming more frequent, with damages increasing, backers seeking more granular information on climate-
even after adjusting for value growth. related strategies than ever before.

“2020 was the year of the pandemic; in 2021, climate According to Allianz Risk Barometer respondents, the
change will be back on the board agenda as a priority,” physical loss impact is the most significant exposure
says Michael Bruch, Global Head of Liability Risk climate change creates for companies, followed by its
Consulting/ESG at AGCS. “Climate change will require impact on supply chains, customers and communities.
many businesses to adjust their strategies and business Beyond the physical loss impact of damage from natural
models in order to move to a low-carbon world. Risk catastrophes or extreme weather events to business assets
managers need to be at the forefront of that change to and property, there is also growing concern about how
assess the transition risks and opportunities related to increases in global temperatures or greater flood risks in
market and technology shifts, reputational issues, policy key locations could significantly affect future operations,
and legal changes or physical risks. They have to help facilities, workforces and communities and how to plan for
identify possible scenarios or evaluate the business and such scenarios.
financial impact driving the overall low-carbon
transformation of a company, together with other Rising regulatory and legal risk is also a concern,
stakeholders.” particularly for high carbon-emitting sectors, but also

1 Copernicus Climate Change Service, Global November Temperatures Reached A Record High, While Europe Experiences Its Warmest Autumn On Record, December 7, 2020 23
Allianz Risk Barometer 2021

elsewhere. Policy changes, new taxing schemes, reporting

requirements and sustainability metrics are forthcoming.
For example, the European Green Deal aims to make
Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050 and
comprises a Renewed Sustainable Finance Strategy. In the
UK, there are plans to make climate-related financial risk
disclosures mandatory for a whole swath of corporate
Britain by 2025. Therefore, companies have to prepare and
be able to adapt quickly.

At the same time, climate change activism is becoming

both more sophisticated and professional. For example,
non-profit law firm, ClientEarth, has gained a reputation
for using legislation to hold companies accountable. In
September 2020, it secured a major victory by forcing the
closure of a giant coal plant in central Poland2 .

Threat of litigation is also evolving. Climate change cases

targeting “carbon majors” have already been brought in
more than 30 countries, with the majority in the US. But
climate attribution science opens up the prospect of legal
action connecting individual events to climate change and
holding companies responsible. Notably, a farmer has
brought an action against German energy company RWE CLIMATE CHANGE:
for its contribution to emissions, and potential damage to WHAT ARE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISK
his property in Huaraz, Peru. EXPOSURES ITS IMPACT CREATES FOR
COMPANIES?
A crackdown on “greenwashing” – where companies
provide misleading information so as to present a more Top six answers
environmentally-responsible public image – by regulators
could also be on the cards in future with the Task Force on Physical loss impact (e.g. higher
Climate-Related Financial Disclosures, the Securities and property damages due to increasing 66%
volatility of weather)
Exchange Commission (SEC) in the US and European
supervisors looking into the issue.
Supply chain impact (e.g. business
interruption or delays in receiving goods) 41%
As a result, climate change should not be classified just as
a reputational risk, but also as a legal/governance risk. Operational impact (e.g. cost of relocating
Companies’ boards of directors have a vital duty to ensure facilities)
35%
solid corporate climate responsibility with reporting and
Strategic market impact/transition risks
due diligence. (e.g. write-offs and early retirement of
existing assets, decision to phase out fossil
32%
fuels, shift in consumer preferences)
Investment in preparedness, mitigation and resilience is
Regulatory/legal impact (e.g. changing
crucial. Company-specific climate risks and opportunities laws on environment/emissions, enhanced
31%
must first be identified, for example by using scenario- reporting requirements, fines and penalties,
increasing prospect of litigation)
based analyses and tools and technology such as
catastrophe models and hazard maps. These can help to Liability impact (e.g. directors and officers,
asset managers etc., held accountable for 26%
develop a climate strategy that can be implemented with perceived inaction)
appropriate measures such as changes in business model
or portfolio mixes or investments in capabilities and
Source: Allianz Risk Barometer 2021
technologies, if required. Such changes could also Figures represent the percentage of answers of all participants who responded (362)
constitute opportunities from a business perspective, as Figures do not add up to 100% as up to three risks could be selected.

the energy transition brings new products and

sales markets.

24 2   ClientEarth, EU’s Biggest Coal Plant Must Negotiate Closure With Environmental Lawyers, September 22, 2020
 Risk 10

values, the emergence of ‘post-factual’ world views and

11%
intensifying distrust between China and the West –
represent a perfect storm,” says Bjoern Reusswig, Head
of Global Political Violence and Hostile Environment
 2020: 9% (11)
Solutions at AGCS.
Political risks and “This is exacerbated by the fact that the world has never
violence been so interconnected by goods, services and the ability

10
(e.g. political instability, war, for more people to travel globally. A cursory look at the
terrorism, civil commotion, riots
and looting)
“doomsday clock”, which has been maintained since 1947
by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists and symbolically
represents the likelihood of a man-made global
Political risks and violence returns to the top 10 of the catastrophe, shows it has never been closer to midnight
Allianz Risk Barometer for the first time since 2018, than in 2020 – it is currently 11:58:20 2 .”
reflecting the fact that civil unrest incidents such as protests
and riots now challenge terrorism as the main political risk Civil unrest/commotion and separatism/nationalism issues
exposure for companies. The number, scale and duration of will remain among the main political violence topics going
many recent events has been exceptional, such as the forward. The pandemic has led to some countries taking
“yellow vest” protests in France (insured losses around tougher stances on refugees/asylum seekers and cutting
$90mn), as well as unrest in locations like Hong Kong back on development, creating worse conditions for
($77mn), Chile (about $2bn) and Ecuador ($821mn). emerging countries. At the same time, debt and currency
crises will continue in developing economies. Such
Meanwhile, in the US, a tense second half of 2020 saw conditions only further fuel incidences of separatism/
racially charged riots in the wake of the death of George nationalism, religious extremism and xenophobia.
Floyd and the rise of the Black Lives Matter movement, as
well as further unrest around the US presidential election, It is little surprise then that interest in the specialist political
including a mob storming the US Capitol. This has resulted violence and terrorism (PVT) insurance market is growing.
in the US seeing its standing on the Verisk Maplecroft Civil Overall, capacity increased to over $3.2bn notional capacity
Unrest Index sharply deteriorate – from the 91st riskiest per transaction for contract frustration (non-performance
jurisdiction in Q2 2020 to the 34th by Q4 20201 . by government obligors) and $3.3bn for political risks in
2020 according to Willis Towers Watson3. While the
In addition, anti-lockdown demonstrations turned violent specialized PVT market took some hits during 2020, the
in several Western countries and while these incidents did majority of insured losses were absorbed by the property
not create a sizeable magnitude of insured losses, they all-risk (PAR) market – creating a new dimension of
have clearly brought the political violence topic back into awareness in these markets. The global economic downturn
focus for risk managers. Businesses do not have to be has had a more significant impact on the PVT market.
direct victims of civil unrest or terrorism to suffer financial Ironically, although awareness of politically motivated
losses. Revenues can suffer whether or not physical threats is increasing, due to budget restraints, many
damage happens if the surrounding area is cordoned off companies have reduced their purchase of PVT products, or
for a prolonged time or while infrastructure is repaired to stopped altogether, which may be shortsighted.
allow re-entry of customers, vendors and suppliers.
Companies can also be hit by a physical loss of attraction “Insurers and brokers need to explain the inherent benefits
to a property nearby. If there is a closure of a location of their products to customers, especially on the
where large numbers of people come together, a reduced differences between PAR and PVT,” says Reusswig. “In the
number of visitors will result. wake of the US riots, the trend of the PAR market taking a
tougher stance on strike, riot and civil commotion exposure
The outlook doesn’t get any rosier. As the socioeconomic will likely accelerate and capacities will likely move from
fallout from Covid-19 mounts, the ranks of global PAR to the specialist political violence insurance markets.”
protesters is expected to swell – 75 countries will likely
experience an increase in protests by late 2022, according
to Verisk Maplecroft. Of these, more than 30 –
RISK BULLETIN
ALLIANZ GLOBAL CORPORATE & SPECIALTY®

CIVIL UNREST
predominantly in Europe and the Americas – will likely see ALLIANZ RISK CONSULTING

significant activity.

“The current state of the world – Covid-19, the economic

Image: Shutterstock

As the state of public discourse could become a flashpoint • The second phase commences as other individuals,
for demonstrations and dissent, differentiating between alerted by social media and news reporting, join the
peaceful protests and violent public disturbances is vital. smaller group, possibly for the purpose of looting,
Operational and security management within spectating and otherwise causing damage. Often,

downturn, a general rise towards nationalism,

organizations should view current events as a catalyst for these individuals are not concerned or associated
evaluating best practices and policies around preparing with the incident that gave rise to the disturbance.
office locations and employees for potential civil unrest.
• The third phase begins when organized groups join
Framing concerns and timelines around emergency in the unrest with planned disruptive activities directed
preparedness response plans, security experts have against targets of opportunity.
identified the escalation of civil unrest in three
evolutionary phases1. Best practices for how companies and/or organizations
should prepare for or respond to such incidents depends

authoritarianism and separatism, declining multi-lateral

• The first phase constitutes the incident initiating on many factors, including the nature of the precipitating
a disturbance among a small group. event, proximity of location and type of business. Curated
below is a list of recommendations for businesses and

↘ Find out more about how businesses can protect

individuals to help mitigate the risks from civil unrest
situations, taking into account these variables and
associated pathways for de-escalation, communication
and response.

problem-solving approaches, erosion of democratic core

1
CSO United States: https://www.csoonline.com/

against civil unrest

article/3187894/how-to-address-civil-unrest.html

1 Verisk Perspectives, A Dangerous New Era Of Civil Unrest Is Dawning In The United States And Around The World, December 10, 2020
2 Bulletin Of The Atomic Scientists, Closer Than Ever: It Is 100 Seconds To Midnight, January 23, 2020
3 Willis Towers Watson, Insurance Marketplace Realities 2021 – Political Risk, November 18, 2020 25
CONTACT US
For more information contact your local Allianz Global
Corporate & Specialty Communications team.

Asia Pacific Central and Eastern Europe Ibero/LatAm

Wendy Koh Daniel Aschoff Camila Corsini
wendy.koh@allianz.com daniel.aschoff@allianz.com camila.corsini@allianz.com
+65 6395 3796 +49 89 3800 18900 +55 11 3527 0235

Mediterranean/Africa North America UK, Middle East, Nordics

Florence Claret Sabrina Glavan Ailsa Sayers
florence.claret@allianz.com sabrina.glavan@agcs.allianz.com ailsa.sayers@allianz.com
+33 158 858863 +1 646 472 1510 +44 20 3451 3391

Lesiba Sethoga
lesiba.sethoga@allianz.com
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January 2021