Lecture 5: Network Models

CPM and PERT

• CPM: Critical Path Method
• PERT: Program Evaluation and Review Technique
• Both are network based methods to assist in planning, scheduling, and
control of projects.
• Project can be defined as a collection of interrelated activities and
each activity consumes time and resources.
• The objective of CPM and PERT is to provide analytical means for
scheduling the activities.
Network Representation
• Rule 1: Each activity is represented by, one and only one, arc.
• Rule 2: Each activity must be identified by two distinct nodes.

Concurrent activities
Network Representation
• Rule 3: To maintain the correct precedence relationships, the
following questions must be answered as each activity is added to
the network:
a) What activities must immediately precede the current activity?
b) What activities must follow the current activity?
c) What activities must occur concurrently with the current activity?

• Example
• Activity C starts immediately after A and B have
been completed.
• Activity E starts only after B has been completed

Wrong
Example
 Example…

E F G
2 3 4 5

H 6
A B 7 I
D
J
1 C 8 9
Critical Path Method (CPM)
• Construction of time schedule for the project
• Total time needed to complete the project.
• Classification of activities of the project as critical or noncritical.
• Critical activity: There is no leeway in determining its start and finish time.
• Noncritical activity: allows some scheduling slack, so that the start time of activity can
be advanced or delayed within limits without effecting the completion day of the
entire project.
• Event: A point at which activities are terminated and others are started.
• In a network, it corresponds to a node.

• Two passes in CPM

• Forward pass for earlier occurrence times
• Backward pass for latest occurrence times
CPM
CPM
CPM

11
8

2 E F
B
0 6 11
C 3 13 H 25
0 1 5 6
13 12 25
A G
5
D 1
2 4
8

5 Look at activity
13
(4,6)
5 13
Example
• Draw network diagram and find the critical path.
Construction of Time Schedule
• Use information of CPM to make time schedule
• Interval delineates the (maximum) span during which
activity (i,j) may be scheduled without delaying the entire project.

• Critical activities: solid

lines
• Noncritical activities:
dashed lines
• Start as early as possible
Determination of Floats
• Floats are the slack time available within the allotted span of
noncritical activity.
• Total float

• Free float
Floats
• Floats for noncritical activities
PERT: Program Evaluation and Review Technique
• Optimistic time estimate, t0 or a, which occurs when execution
goes extremely well.
• Most likely time estimate, tm or m, which occurs when execution is
done under normal conditions.
• Pessimistic time, tp or b, which occurs when execution goes
extremely poorly.
• The range (a, b) encloses all possible estimates of the duration of
an activity.
• Average duration time, 𝐷 ഥ or 𝑡𝑒 and variance, 𝜗
PERT
• Probability distribution Density function: f(x) = K(x-a)α(b-x)β

Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic

• Assumptions
• The activity durations are independent. That is, the time required to
complete an activity will have no bearing on the completion time of any
activity of the project.
𝑏−𝑎
• The activity follows β-distribution with 𝑡𝑒 and standard deviation 𝜎1 =
6
PERT Procedure
1. Draw the project network.
2. Compute the expected duration of each activity 𝑡𝑒 .
3. Compute the expected variance 𝜗 of each activity.
4. Compute the earliest start, earliest finish, latest start, latest
finish, and total float of each activity.
5. Determine the critical path and identify critical activities.
6. Computer the expected variance of the project length (also called
the variance of the critical path) which is the sum of the
variances of all critical activities.
7. Compute the expected standard deviation of the project length 𝜎𝑐
𝑇𝑠 −𝑇𝐸
and calculate the normal deviation
𝜎𝑐
where, TS = specified or scheduled time to complete the project
TE =normal expected duration (duration of the project)
𝜎𝑐 = expected standard deviation of the project length.
PERT Example
• A small project is composed of activities whose time estimate are
listed in the table: Activities are identified by their beginning (i) and
ending (j) node numbers.
a) Draw the project network.
b) Find the expected duration and variance for each activity, What is the
expected project length?
c) Calculate the variance and standard deviation of the project length. What
is the probability that the project will be completed.
i. At least 4 weeks earlier than expected?
ii. No more than 4 weeks later than expected?
d) If the project due is 19 in weeks, what is the probability of meeting the
due date?
PERT Example
Activity Estimated Duration (weeks) mean Variance
Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic 𝑡𝑒 or
i-j ഥ 𝜗
(a) (m) (b) 𝐷
1–2 1 1 7 2 1
1–3 1 4 7 4 1
1–4 2 2 8 3 1
2–5 1 1 1 1 0
3–5 2 5 14 6 4
4–6 2 5 8 5 1
5–6 3 6 15 7 4
3
Find critical path using te. • Duration of project = 17 weeks
4 6
• Variance of the project length = sum of
the variances of the critical activities
2 1 7 • 𝜎𝑐 = 3
1 2 5 6

3 5
4
PERT Example
Calculate the variance and standard deviation of the project length. What is the probability
that the project will be completed.
i. At least 4 weeks earlier than expected?
ii. No more than 4 weeks later than expected?

• The standard normal deviation is

𝐷𝑢𝑒 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒 −𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑧=
𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒

i. TS = 13, z = 13-17/3 = -1.33

P(TS ≤ 13) = P(z ≤ -1.33)
=0.5 – ϕ(1.33) = 0.5 – 0.4082 = 0.0918 or 9.18%
ii. TS = 21, z = 21-17/3 = 1.33
P(TS ≤ 21) = P(z ≤ 1.33)
=0.5 + ϕ(1.33) = 0.5 + 0.4082 = 0.9082 or 90.82%
Z 0.5 0.67 1.00 1.33 2.00
p 0.1915 0.2486 0.3413 0.4082 0.4772
PERT Example
• When due date is 19 weeks, z = 19-17/3 = 0.67
P(TS ≤ 19) = P(z ≤ 0.67)
=0.5 + ϕ(0.67) = 0.5 + 0.2486 = 0.7486 or 74.86%
• The probability of not meeting the due date is 1 – 0.7486 = 0.2514
or 25.14%.

Z 0.5 0.67 1.00 1.33 2.00

p 0.1915 0.2486 0.3413 0.4082 0.4772