Nature Wine ClimateChange

nature reviews earth & environment https://doi.org/10.
1038/s43017-024-00521-5
Review article Check for updates
Climate change impacts and

adaptations of wine production
Cornelis van Leeuwen 1
, Giovanni Sgubin2,3, Benjamin Bois 4
, Nathalie Ollat1, Didier Swingedouw 2
, Sébastien Zito1
& Gregory A. Gambetta 1
Abstract Sections
Climate change is affecting grape yield, composition and wine Introduction
quality. As a result, the geography of wine production is changing. Shifting geographies of wine
In this Review, we discuss the consequences of changing temperature, production
precipitation, humidity, radiation and CO2 on global wine production Adapting to a hotter and drier
future
and explore adaptation strategies. Current winegrowing regions are
primarily located at mid-latitudes (California, USA; southern France; Changing impacts of pests
and diseases
northern Spain and Italy; Barossa, Australia; Stellenbosch, South
The impact of viticultural
Africa; and Mendoza, Argentina, among others), where the climate is expansion
warm enough to allow grape ripening, but without excessive heat, and
Summary and future
relatively dry to avoid strong disease pressure. About 90% of traditional perspectives
wine regions in coastal and lowland regions of Spain, Italy, Greece and
southern California could be at risk of disappearing by the end of the
century because of excessive drought and more frequent heatwaves
with climate change. Warmer temperatures might increase suitability
for other regions (Washington State, Oregon, Tasmania, northern
France) and are driving the emergence of new wine regions, like the
southern United Kingdom. The degree of these changes in suitability
strongly depends on the level of temperature rise. Existing producers
can adapt to a certain level of warming by changing plant material
(varieties and rootstocks), training systems and vineyard management.
However, these adaptations might not be enough to maintain
economically viable wine production in all areas. Future research
should aim to assess the economic impact of climate change adaptation
strategies applied at large scale.
1
Ecophysiologie et Génomique Fonctionnelle de la Vigne (EGFV), Université de Bordeaux, Bordeaux Sciences
Agro, INRAE, ISVV, Villenave d’Ornon, France. 2Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques
et Continentaux (EPOC), Université de Bordeaux, CNRS, Bordeaux INP, UMR 5805, F-33600, Pessac, France.
3
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare (DISTEM), Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
4
Biogéosciences, Université de Bourgogne, CNRS (UMR 6282), Dijon, France. e-mail: vanleeuwen@
agro-bordeaux.fr
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

Review article
Key points hot and dry regions to the point where suitability will be lost, with enor-
mous negative social and economic consequences. Mid-latitude wine
regions could be increasingly exposed to spring frost events, owing to
•• Climate change modifies wine production conditions and requires earlier budburst14,15. Projected increased hailstorm severity can result
adaptation from growers. in crop and plant damage16. However, some of these projections are
overly pessimistic, because they do not take into account the possi-
•• The suitability of current winegrowing areas is changing, and there bility for growers to adapt to the changing conditions17. For example,
will be winners and losers. New winegrowing regions will appear in major technical levers for adaptation include changes in plant material,
previously unsuitable areas, including expanding into upslope regions training systems and/or seasonal management practices18–20.
and natural areas, raising issues for environmental preservation. In addition, new winegrowing regions could emerge in previously
unsuitable areas, as cool and subhumid climates see increasing tem-
•• Higher temperatures advance phenology (major stages in the peratures, creating economic opportunities but also threatening wild
growing cycle), shifting grape ripening to a warmer part of the summer. habitats when these emerging regions do not result from converted
In most winegrowing regions around the globe, grape harvests farmland10. If these new vineyards are irrigated, this will increase com-
have advanced by 2–3 weeks over the past 40 years. The resulting petition for freshwater resources. Even converting existing farmland
modifications in grape composition at harvest change wine quality to winegrowing means less arable land dedicated to food production.
and style. In this Review, we synthesize climate change effects on viticulture
and wine production. Many articles have been published on regional
•• Changing plant material and cultivation techniques that retard impacts of climate change on wine production, and our aim is to assem-
maturity are effective adaptation strategies to higher temperatures ble these results to produce a global picture of the changing geography
until a certain level of warming. of wine. We discuss the impacts of changing temperature, radiation,
water availability, pests and diseases, and CO2 on viticulture and wine.
•• Increased drought reduces yield and can result in sustainability Potential adaptation measures and their limits are discussed, for exam-
losses. The use of drought-resistant plant material and the adoption ple, existing producers can adapt to a certain level of warming by
of different training systems are effective adaptation strategies to deal changing plant material (varieties and rootstocks), training systems
with declining water availability. Supplementary irrigation is also an and vineyard management. However, these adaptations might not
option when sustainable freshwater resources are available. be enough to maintain economically viable wine production in all
areas. Finally, implications of viticultural expansion are discussed and
•• The emergence of new pests and diseases and the increasing compared with historical shifts in production.
occurrence of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, heavy
rainfall and possibly hail, also challenge wine production in some Shifting geographies of wine production
regions. In contrast, other areas might benefit from reduced pest Wine grapes are cultivated from the tropics to Scandinavia21,22 and
and disease pressure. can be grown at elevations of over 3,000 m 23, revealing the remark-
able adaptability of grapevine to a wide range of climate conditions.
Vineyard management aims at locally adapting vine cultivation to
Introduction match terrain, soil and climate conditions. In cool and subhumid
Grapes are the world’s third most valuable horticultural crop, after environments, such as vineyards in northwestern Europe, important
potatoes and tomatoes, counting for a farm-gate value of US$68 billion climate-related challenges are grapevine diseases and difficulties in
in 2016 ref. 1. Global production in 2020 was 80 million tonnes of grapes, obtaining fully mature fruit. Hence, vineyards are commonly planted
harvested from 7.4 million hectares2. Of the produced grapes, 49% were on slopes to optimize light interception and runoff, on shallow soils
transformed into wine and spirits, while 43% were consumed as fresh to promote mild water deficits that enhance ripening, with early rip-
grapes and 8% as raisins. Wine, as a commodity, can be valued over ening grapevine cultivars, and using training systems that maximize
a price range from US$3 to over US$1,000 per bottle, depending on exposed leaf areas per unit of ground surface24. In such regions, the
quality and reputation3. Hence, financial sustainability does not only impacts of climate change are predominantly positive, as warmer
rely on the balance between yield and production costs, as for most conditions and higher evaporative demand make it easier for grapes
agricultural products, but also on quality and reputation. The region to ripen25 and limit disease-triggering humidity. In drier and warmer
of production is a major driver of reputation and value4. This regional regions, the main challenge is plant water availability. Adaptation to
variation in wine quality is not surprising, because the climate, or more water scarcity depends on local practices, favouring either irrigation
precisely the ‘right variety in the right climate’, is a well-identified attrib- or systems that use low water consumption, such as cultivation of
ute of premium wine production3. The effect of climate conditions on drought-resistant varieties cropped as bushvines and/or at low plant-
grape composition at harvest (and thus, wine composition and quality) ing density (number of vines per hectare). In warm and dry regions,
seems to be even more important than the soil type5. climate change is a threat requiring immediate adaptations because of
With climate change, this fundamental regional influence on wine excessively high temperatures26 and increased water scarcity27.
quality and style is changing6. For example, a substantial advance in Climate change is having a growing impact on the wine industry,
harvest dates and/or an increase in wine alcohol level have already been potentially altering the geography of high-quality wine production.
observed in many regions such as Bordeaux and Alsace (France)7–9. The After segmenting each continent and its wine-producing areas
suitability for wine production in established winegrowing regions is into macro-regions defined by specific climate-driven conditions
likely to change during the twenty-first century10–13. Pressures from (see Supplementary note and Supplementary Table 1 for definitions),
temperature rise and drought could challenge production in already we estimate a substantial risk of unsuitability (ranging from moderate

Review article
to high) for 49–70% of existing wine regions, contingent on the degree higher slopes of the Andes34,36, while the Atlantic sector will offer poor
of global warming (Fig. 1). Simultaneously, 11–25% of existing wine opportunities for winemaking10,12. Expanding into newly suitable areas
regions might experience enhanced production with rising tempera- could imply movement southward into Argentinian Patagonia34,36 or
tures, and new suitable areas might emerge at higher latitudes and potentially an exploration of the high altitudes of the Ecuadorian and
altitudes (Fig. 1). These assessments on the future risks and oppor- Colombian Andes10,12. In general, the projected decrease in suitable
tunities for wine production worldwide are based on an exhaustive areas in the Pacific South America will probably be balanced by the
literature review (see Supplementary Table 2) and exhibit specific potential emergence of new suitable areas10,12.
features across continents.
Europe
North America Europe is recognized as the primary producer of premium wine
Currently, most of the wine production in North America (10% of global worldwide, with a substantial production located south of approxi-
wine production2) is concentrated on the west coast28, particularly mately 50° N. Spain, France, Italy and Germany collectively contrib-
in northern California, including Napa Valley, which stands out both in ute to half of global wine production2 (Fig. 1c). However, climate
terms of production and value (Fig. 1a). Moderate levels of global warm- change is expected to shift suitable regions towards higher latitudes
ing are projected to maintain the suitability of coastal regions of Cali- and altitudes10,12. Under low levels of global warming (<2 °C), most
fornia for high-quality wine production10,29. However, winemakers in traditional wine-producing regions will maintain suitability, albeit
this region will face increasing risks of drought, heatwaves and wild- contingent on the implementation of adaptation measures, notably
fires, necessitating the proactive adoption of adaptation measures30. in southern Europe13. The combination of rising temperatures and
If global warming exceeds 2 °C, coastal California will transition to a very reduced rainfall will induce severe risk of drought over south Iberia,
warm and arid climate for viticulture, probably resulting in a decline Mediterranean France and Spain, the Po Valley, coastal Italy, the Balkan
in wine quality and economic sustainability12,26. The interior regions of Peninsula and the southwestern Black Sea regions13,27,37,38. The risk of
California might experience this decline earlier and will need to adopt widespread water scarcity might render unsustainable any extensive
more radical adaptation measures even below 2 °C of global warming31. increase in irrigation intended to preserve the suitability of these areas.
The southern part of California, already characterized by a warm and Moreover, warmer conditions and increased sunburn exposure will
dry climate, is expected to become unsuitable for high-quality wine negatively affect both yield and wine quality in these areas. For more
production under global warming scenarios exceeding 2 °C10,12. Overall, severe warming scenarios, most Mediterranean regions might become
the net suitable area for wine production in California could decline climatically unsuitable for wine production, and vineyards below 45° N
by up to 50% by the end of the twenty-first century12. Similar risks exist might be so challenged that the only feasible adaptation would be to
for Mexico, the southwestern United States and those regions of the relocate to higher altitudes11,13,39–41. About 90% of the traditional wine
east coast south of New Jersey10. The northernmost wine regions of regions situated in the lowlands and coastal regions of Spain, Italy and
America (that is, New British Columbia, Washington State, Oregon on Greece could be at risk of disappearing by the end of the century12.
the west coast, Great Lakes region and New England on the east coast) Only a minor portion of this loss (less than 20%) can be potentially
are likely to shift from cool to intermediate, or even warm, climate viti- compensated for by shifting vineyards towards mountainous areas,
culture in the future, thus increasing their potential for premium wine considering elevations of up to 1,000 m11,42.
production10,12,29,32. However, global warming surpassing 2 °C is likely Atlantic sectors of Iberia and France, along with the western Black
to result in antagonistic effects. On one hand, it can enhance climate Sea regions, will face lower risks than the Mediterranean13,43–45. With
suitability, with suitable areas in these regions (excluding Oregon) limited global warming, the implementation of viticultural techniques
probably more than doubling10,12. On the other hand, it would introduce that delay ripening and alleviate water stress seem sufficient to pre-
unprecedented risks of heatwaves and increased disease pressure26,33, serve high-quality wine production46. More severe warming scenarios
particularly considering that these regions are predominantly classified are likely to necessitate the transition to later-ripening grape varie-
as humid. ties in these regions12,13. Conversely, Galicia, the northern Balkans,
and in general areas north of 46° N are expected to benefit from global
South America warming, at least for limited levels of temperature increase10,13,27. Over
Current wine production in South America (10% of global wine certain regions, early budburst might lead to an increased risk from
production2) is primarily concentrated in the middle to high altitudes spring frost14,18,47. Overall, the suitable surface area of traditional
of Chile and Argentina, benefiting from favourable temperatures and wine-producing regions is expected to decline by 20–70% by the end
sunlight along the foothills of the Andes Mountains (Fig. 1b). Given of the century, depending on the severity of the warming scenario13.
the extensive irrigation already adopted over the driest wine regions, Simultaneously, new wine regions are expected to expand northward,
such as Mendoza, projections in precipitation over traditional South notably along the Atlantic sector10–12,14,27, resulting in a net increase of
American vineyards do not indicate substantial changes in suitability34. climatically suitable areas in Europe by up to 60%13. However, such an
Consequently, the future suitability in these regions will be primar- expansion is purely theoretical and pertains solely to climate condi-
ily dependent on temperature increase, ground and surface water tions, without considering soil quality, pre-existing land use and other
availability35, and the frequency of extreme events. For a limited crucial factors for establishing new vineyards.
level of warming, the Pacific sector of South America is expected to
experience a low risk of suitability loss, but this risk increases for the Africa
Atlantic regions such as Brazil and Uruguay. Cool-climate winegrow- Africa has a relatively low level of wine production (3.8% of global wine
ing regions, such as the Pampa region, might be improved under these production2), with South Africa being the primary producer, while other
conditions34,36. For more severe warming, the resilience of the north- countries such as Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria (Fig. 1d) have a much
ern Argentinian wine regions might require a shift from lowlands to smaller scale of production2. The scientific literature on future wine

Review article
Levels of suitability change Confidence in the assessment Current wine regions New wine regions
Region High risk of unsuitability Low owing to limited studies
acronym
Moderate risk of unsuitability Low
0–2 °C 2–4 °C Slight risk of unsuitability Medium Estimated level Potential
of GW of GW of suitability suitability
Improved suitability High
a North America b South America

BRC COL
WAS MON GLR NSC
ORS IDA NER ECU
CNC CIV AMA
CCC PER GCH SBR
SCA SWR NCV NAV URU
WME EME SCV SAV
CHU
c Europe d Africa
NUK SSC MAG
DEN BAR
IRI SUK
BNR NGE WNP ENP FNE
BRI NFR RMR CEB SPL TNS WUK EUK
ACF IFR SAR DBR NBS ETH
ASF GLI WPV EPV NBP TSS CEA
ANI NII MNS CIT EAD SBS
NPO CSP MSS WAD SBP WAN
SPO SOS WMI TYI EMI
WCA ECA
e Asia f Oceania
NEB
CAR CAS
SEB PMR XIN ICH ECH KJR
MEA SCH
WAU SAU INS EAU
WVI EVI NNZ
SNZ
TAS

Review article
Fig. 1 | Global changes in winegrowing suitability at temperature increases of The potential suitability of emerging wine regions is noted by hexagons that are
2 °C and 4 °C. a–f, Current suitability across continental regions is noted by the shaded purple, from less (light purple) to more (darker purple) potential suitability
green shading of the hexagons, from less suitable (light green) to more suitable based on consensus from the literature. The methodology to produce the maps
(darker green), for North America (panel a), South America (panel b), Europe is explained in the Supplementary information. The acronyms of all regions
(panel c), Africa (panel d), Asia (panel e) and Oceania (panel f). This current delimited by hexagons are provided in Supplementary Table 1, and references used
suitability was based on the actual production area and on published studies (see for the assessments are available in Supplementary Table 2. Out of the 73 globally
Supplementary information). Future suitability change in these regions is noted identified traditional wine-producing regions, an assessment on future climate
by the colour of the dots within the hexagons according to the key; the left dot suitability was feasible for 72: for global warming below (above) 2 °C, 18 (8) show
represents the change for a scenario in which there is global warming (GW) of up to improved suitability, 19 (13) show a slight risk of suitability loss, 34 (30) a moderate
2 °C and the right dot the change for warming of 2-4 °C. The size of the dot represents risk of suitability loss and 1 (21) a high risk of suitability loss. Simultaneously,
the confidence of the assessment (the larger the dot, the higher the confidence). 26 new potential emerging wine regions have been identified.
production in South Africa is limited, resulting in a low-confidence degree of global warming, up to 65% of the traditional Australian vine-
assessment of a moderate risk of suitability loss in both the more pro- yards might become climatically unsuitable, whereas wine-producing
ductive western region and the eastern region10,12. In contrast, a richer regions in New Zealand have the potential to expand by 15–60% by the
body of literature focused on the Mediterranean basin, considering end of the century12.
different levels of global warming, indicates a moderate-to-high risk In summary, on a global scale, approximately 25% of current wine
of suitability loss in the Maghreb region27,48, whose possibility of future regions might benefit from a temperature increase capped at 2 °C,
wine production presupposes the movement to higher altitudes, for and around 26% are likely to maintain their current suitability with
example the Atlas Mountains. Potential emerging wine regions in Africa proper management practices. This implies that global warming levels
include the highlands of Kenya and notably the highlands of Ethiopia, below 2 °C can be deemed a safe threshold for over half of traditional
where the wine industry is in its early stage of development10,12. vineyards. Conversely, for temperature increases beyond 2 °C, 70% of
existing winemaking regions might face substantial risks of suitability
Asia loss. Specifically, 29% might experience too extreme climate conditions,
The main winemaking regions in Asia (about 3.5% of global wine preventing premium wine production, while the future of the remain-
production2) include the Caucasus and China (Fig. 1e). The assess- ing 41% will hinge on the effective feasibility of effective adaptation
ment of future Asian climate suitability for wine production is uncer- measures. Further investigation in this direction is warranted to assess
tain owing to limited studies, especially for Xinjiang, one of the major the environmental and economic impact of these potential strategies.
wine-producing regions of the continent. The inland Chinese regions
(for example Ningxia), characterized by a mountain climate, might ben- Adapting to a hotter and drier future
efit from warming below 2 °C, expanding suitable areas12,49. However, To maintain environmentally sustainable viticulture — that is, the pro-
further warming could render parts of this region substantially warmer duction of wines with marketable quality and yield levels assuring profit-
and more arid, posing challenges for premium wine production12,49. The able operations — adaptation is mandatory. Growers can adapt through
Caucasian and eastern Asian regions will face low-to-moderate risks of the choice of plant material (rootstocks and varieties) or by modifying
unsuitability depending on warming levels10,12,41, and this risk is higher training systems and vineyard management practices. Adaptation to
for the arid areas of Middle East and Central Asia, possibly leading to warmer temperatures and increased drought should be considered
completely unsuitable conditions for temperature increases above separately (Fig. 2). However, Mediterranean summer conditions with
2 °C12. Emerging regions such as the northeastern Black Sea coasts, combined stresses, such as extreme temperatures, high radiation levels,
eastern Anatolia and Pamir–Himalayan Mountains show potential for strong winds, and long periods of water deficit combined with mineral
future wine production10,12. stresses, are more likely to occur in the future, with non-additive and
more deleterious effects than each stress taken separately54,55.
Oceania
Projected climate change in Oceania (6% of global wine production2) Increased temperatures
will lead to overall warmer and drier conditions, making those regions Wine quality is very sensitive to temperature during grape ripening9,56.
that are already relatively warm and arid the most vulnerable (Fig. 1f). When temperatures are too low, wines tend to exhibit a green and acidic
Although limited global warming (<2 °C) will generally bring better profile. Conversely, when temperatures are too high, wines possess high
temperature conditions to southern regions, a moderate risk of suit- alcohol and low acidity levels, featuring cooked fruit aromas rather
ability loss is expected in the inner region of New South Wales50,51. than fresh fruit aromas57. By choosing grape varieties in relation to
This risk remains low in the rest of mainland Australia and northern local climate (for example early-ripening varieties in cool climates and
New Zealand52. If global temperatures rise above 2 °C, the risk of late-ripening varieties in warm climates), ripening under ideal tempera-
suitability loss will substantially increase, and the traditional inland tures can be achieved under a wide range of climate conditions3. As a
regions of Australia might become unsuitable52. Conversely, Tasmania result, under current climate conditions, optimal harvests take place
and southern New Zealand will benefit from limited warming, which in September to early October in the Northern Hemisphere (March or
might offer more favourable conditions for premium wine produc- early April in the Southern Hemisphere) in most renowned wine regions,
tion. Tasmania, in particular, shows higher potential for premium wine when temperatures are neither too low nor too high.
production in both moderate and more severe warming scenarios10,51,52, Phenology is considered one of the most robust biological indica-
while New Zealand’s high-quality production can probably be ensured tors of ongoing climate change58, and for grapevine many long-term
through management adaptation alone12,53. Overall, depending on the records of major phenological stages exist (for example records

Review article
Risk of T < 0° Risk of T > 35° Optimal ripening window

Northern Hemisphere
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Southern Hemisphere
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Current phenology
Budburst Flowering Veraison Ripening Harvest
Future conditions
Exposure to late frost Reduced yield Increased risk of sunburn Risk of ripening in hot conditions Reduced wine quality
With human intervention (adaptation)
Limiting the earlier phenology Avoiding heat through adapted training systems
• Late-ripening clones • Higher trunks
• Late-ripening varieties • Shaded canopies
• Late pruning • Goblet bushvines
• Reduced ratio of leaf area to fruit weight • Shading nets
Fig. 2 | Expected changes in phenology, yield and wine quality in response Southern Hemisphere) when excessive heat can impair grape quality potential
to increased temperatures and potential adaptations. The timing of and threaten yields. Adaptive measures aim at retarding the ripening period to
phenology is key in the production of high-quality wines. When the end of the later in the season when temperatures are cooler. These include changes in plant
ripening period takes place in September (March in the Southern Hemisphere), material, training systems and management practices. Also, different means
temperatures are high enough to ensure full ripeness of the grapes, but generally to obtain a cooler microclimate in the bunch zones are effective adaptations to
without excessive heat3. Increased temperatures under climate change advance a warmer climate. Hence, grape growers should avoid as much as possible the
the end of the ripening period to July or August ( January or February in the advancement of the ripening period.
of budbreak, flowering and veraison — the colour change of grape level for the intended wine style and might be influenced by disease
berries that marks the onset of ripening). These records almost uni- pressure. Nevertheless, harvest date is still largely linked to climate,
versally indicate advanced phenology for the grapevine due to higher and long-term harvest records have been used for climate reconstruc-
temperatures, in particular since the late 1980s7,8,19,59. For example, tions since the fourteenth century61,62. In most winegrowing regions
both budbreak and flowering advanced by 15 days in Alsace (France) around the globe, grape harvests have advanced by 2–3 weeks over the
during the period 1965 to 2003, meaning that the length of the period past 40 years19,63,64 (Fig. 2). Earlier phenology means that ripening will
between budbreak and flowering remained the same7. Because the occur in a warmer period of the year. Because of this shift in phenology,
stages have shifted in concert, this advance in phenology could pos- every 1 °C increase in temperature during the growing season results
sibly shift flowering to a cooler period of the year when less favourable approximately in 2 °C warmer temperatures during grape ripening65.
conditions could reduce yields60 (Fig. 2). In some regions, dormancy As a result, wine quality and typicity are changing (Fig. 3). Alcohol
release of latent buds might be impaired when autumn and winter levels and wine pH are increasing6,19, while acidity is decreasing66,67
temperatures increase, which can delay budbreak8. Delayed budbreak, (Fig. 3). This decreased acidity induces lower microbiological sta-
as a result of climate change, is, however, an exception, and the general bility, which can lead to off-flavours like those produced by the wild
trend remains advanced budbreak. Harvest date is not a true phenologi- yeast Brettanomyces bruxellensis68 (Fig. 3). Phenolic compounds, such
cal stage as it is influenced by human perception of desired ripeness as tannins, which give the structure to red wine, and anthocyanins,

Review article
which are responsible for its colour, are reduced in grapes under high have important environmental impacts10, as we discuss in the section
temperatures69–71. Moreover, sugar and anthocyanin accumulation in on the impact of viticultural expansion.
grape berries are decoupled under high temperatures, making harvest
decisions increasingly difficult72. Radiation
The amount of humidity that the air is able to contain increases The quantity and quality of solar radiation influence the morphologi-
with temperature73. Hence, vapour pressure deficit and reference cal development of the grapevine, its physiology, and the production
evapotranspiration (ET0) increase with temperature. As a result, even of metabolites that play a key role in wine quality. Managing sunlight
if precipitation levels remain unchanged, plant water use will increase interception by leaves, buds, flowers and grapes through planting
with higher temperature, increasing the risk of drought74. density, row height and canopy management is crucial to grapevine
Excessive temperatures can negatively affect yield, because of production101. The intensity of photosynthetic activity depends on
increased competition for carbohydrates during bunch initiation both temperature and sunlight102, and the photosynthesis saturation
in primary buds75, a decrease in the number of flowers per bunch76, threshold for light increases with air temperature (optimum between
reduced fecundation77, reduced berry size due to limited carbohydrate 25 and 30 °C)103. Like all plants, grapevine biomass production increases
resources75,78, or increased drought79. However, reduced yields have with light availability104, except in hot and dry conditions, which can
not been observed for a temperature increase of 2 °C above current reduce photosynthesis despite non-limiting light conditions105. Solar
temperatures in South Australia80. radiation contributes to grape yield as it has a key role in fruitfulness106.
Plant material choices are a key lever for adapting to increasing It also triggers secondary metabolism and favours the production
temperatures81, and the thousands of existing Vitis vinifera varieties dis-
play great differences in the timing of their phenology82–84. Varieties Current Future
and clones with a long phenological cycle delay the ripening period to
a later period in the season when temperatures are cooler. As a first step,
later-ripening clones can be chosen within the existing varieties that are
grown in a particular region19,85. Although the differences in phenology
might not be as great, making use of clonal diversity alleviates the need
to change varieties. If more phenological diversity is needed, the pro-
portion of late-ripening varieties can be increased. Genetic diversity
from niche environments (in particular from the Mediterranean
islands, such as Baleares, Cyprus, Cyclades) should be explored to
access extremely late-ripening varieties86. Later-ripening varieties can
Current wine Climate change
also be created through breeding, although simulation using genetic attributes impacts on
models indicates that even the most ideal late-ripening variety might wine attributes
not ripen late enough in extreme climate change scenarios87. The tem-
perature requirements for major phenological stages across varieties
ABV pH ABV pH
are available in the literature83,84, and these can serve as guidelines for 12.5–14% 3.4–3.6 >14.0% 3.7–3.9
selecting varieties adapted to future climate conditions88.
Exposure to direct sunlight increases bunch temperature substan-
tially. As a result, the effect of radiation and temperature are not easy
to separate89. A potential avenue to adapt to higher temperatures is
adopting resilient training systems that prevent grapes from excessive
Increased risk of
exposure to direct sunlight. These training systems mitigate the heat- microbiological
ing of bunches to temperatures far above ambient air temperatures, spoilage due to
higher pH
which reduces the risk of sunburn. Examples of such training systems
are the traditional goblet bushvine20,90 or more sprawling canopies that
shade fruit91. Establishing vines with higher trunks increases minimum
temperatures, while reducing maximum temperatures in the fruit
zone92. Elevating the fruit zone has the effect of reducing the exposure
of grapes to both spring frost and heatwaves. Minimal pruning delays
maturity but increases water use93. Applications of chemically inert
mineral particles such as zeolite and kaolin can substantially reduce
leaf temperature94.
Some annual vineyard management practices also have the poten-
Fresh fruit aroma Overripe and/or
tial to delay maturity95, such as establishing a reduced ratio of leaf area cooked fruit aroma
to fruit weight96,97, or late pruning98. Shading nets reduce temperature
Fig. 3 | Wine quality impairment under climate change. Climate change
in the canopy and fruit zone but substantially increase production (in particular, increased temperatures) might impair wine quality. Major effects of
cost99. Simply choosing to harvest earlier (for example by reducing increased temperatures and drought include: a modification of the aroma profile,
the time from the onset of ripening to harvest) can avoid excessive with more overripe and cooked fruit aromas replacing fresh fruit aromas; excessive
sugar and alcohol in the resulting wine and can reduce cooked fruit alcohol levels; increased pH, resulting in wines with less perceived freshness and
aromas100. Finally, when possible, vineyards can be moved to higher increased risk of microbiological spoilage. ABV, alcohol by volume. Credit: right
altitudes where temperatures are cooler34. However, this option might inset, bhofack2/Getty images; left inset, LauriPatterson/Getty images.

Review article
of polyphenols (tannins, anthocyanins)107 and many aromatic com- necessarily lower in water deficit conditions134,135. Compared with
pounds that contribute to wine quality108. The role of ultraviolet light well-watered vines, berries actually ripen faster under mild water
needs particular attention, as high-elevation viticulture is develop- deficits, whereas ripening slows down under severe water deficit136.
ing with climate change. Ultraviolet light decreases photosynthetic Water deficit reduces berry malic acid content, resulting in lower total
activity109, increases polyphenols in fruit and can potentially decrease acidity and higher pH137. Berries of red grapevine varieties accumu-
the incidence of some major grapevine diseases110, such as grey mould late more anthocyanins under water deficit, which improves red wine
or powdery mildew111. quality138–140. Water deficit also has positive impacts on most aroma
The projected change in incoming solar radiation over compounds in grapes and red wines141,142. Hence, in general, red grape
wine-producing areas of the world is heterogeneous. By the end of and wine quality is improved when vines are grown under water deficit,
the twenty-first century, solar radiation in Europe and northeastern except when severe137. The relationship with water deficit is less straight-
America might experience a rise of 5–12%112,113, specifically during forward for white grapes and wines143, because more polyphenols in
summer114, whereas little or uncertain change is projected in other white grapes do not necessarily translate into improved quality144.
major wine-producing regions. In hot winegrowing regions, grape rip- Adaptation methods to mitigate drought damage are economi-
ening speed and sunburn risks are tempered through training systems cally sustainable and possible with annual rainfall as low as 350 mm yr−1
that limit grape exposure to sun (for example bushvines, sprawling (ref. 137). The choice of drought-resistant plant material is a major
canopy, pergolas)20. Row orientation115, shading nets116 or adjustable means for adaptation (Fig. 5). Typical Mediterranean varieties such as
above-canopy solar panels79 are additional strategies to cope with Grenache, Carignan and Cinsault produce good yields and high-quality
risks related to excessive sunshine (drought, excessive heat, sunburn). wines in dry conditions with rainfall as low as 350 mm yr−1 without sup-
plementary irrigation145,146. The mechanisms of varietal differences in
Drought drought resistance involve the complex interaction between many
Agricultural droughts — defined as periods of abnormal soil moisture traits, which include lower maximum transpiration and stomatal
deficit, due to shortage of precipitation and excess evapotranspira- conductance, and earlier stomatal closure124,146. Water-use efficiency
tion, that affect crop production — are already increasing in a number also varies among clones at the intravarietal level147. Cultivated vines
of regions around the world, partly owing to human-induced climate are generally grafted on rootstocks, and these display variability in
change117. In the future, this observed trend will continue, and soil mois- drought resistance resulting from differences in their ability to explore
ture will strongly decrease in various wine regions (Fig. 4). Globally, the available soil volume (the plant’s vigour) together with differences
agricultural droughts might occur 2.4 or 4.1 times more frequently in their ability to regulate transpiration of the variety grafted on top
for a 2 °C or 4 °C global warming level, respectively117. Europe and most of the rootstock148,149. The training system is another key driver of
notably the Mediterranean region might be strongly affected by such drought resistance in grapevines (Fig. 5). For example, Mediterra-
an increase (Fig. 4c), given that the frequency and intensity of drought nean goblet bushvines are highly resilient to drought because of their
have already substantially increased since the mid-twentieth century reduced ratio of canopy surface area to vineyard surface area90,150.
in the Mediterranean region117. Bushvines grow near the ground where friction limits wind speed,
Water fluxes through the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum are reducing plant transpiration. Reduced planting density accomplishes
regulated by leaf stomata118. Under drought, plants activate stoma- the same reduction in the ratio of canopy to vineyard surface area,
tal closure to prevent damage from excessive water losses (Fig. 5). limiting light interception and transpiration on a per hectare basis.
Because CO2 enters the leaf mesophyll through these stomata, water Thus, decreasing the number of vines per hectare, by increasing the
deficit also reduces photosynthesis, leading to a reduction in crop distance between the rows, limits seasonal water consumption19.
productivity119,120. The mechanisms triggering stomatal closure are Applications of chemically inert mineral particles such as zeolite and
complex and involve hydraulic121 and hormonal signalling122, result- kaolin increase midday leaf water potential, water-use efficiency
ing in important differences in drought resistance across grapevine and yield94,151. Short- and long-term adaptations to increased drought
varieties123,124 and rootstocks125. Water deficit reduces shoot growth are extensively reviewed152.
more quickly than it reduces transpiration, in particular for secondary The vine is a deep-rooting plant species, which is one of the drivers
stems126. As a result, leaf area is reduced under drought, which further of its drought tolerance, because soil water holding capacity increases
reduces water losses through transpiration, but also reduces plant with rooting depth153. Before establishing the vineyard, deep soil prepa-
productivity127. ration by means of a ripper favours deep rooting and increases plant
Water deficit negatively affects all yield components. Under available water reservoir154,155 (Fig. 5).
drought, bunch initiation in latent buds is impaired, resulting in a Irrigation is another option to manage drought in vineyards.
lower number of bunches per shoot128. Limited availability of car- It promotes higher yields in dry conditions but also consumes limited
bohydrates in dry conditions further reduces fruit set, limiting the freshwater resources156. Vines were traditionally dry-farmed in the
number of berries per bunch129. Finally, berry weight is lower under Mediterranean basin but are usually irrigated in emerging winegrow-
drought130, in particular when occurring before veraison131, and more ing regions. In some of these regions (Mendoza, Argentina; Murray
severe pre-veraison water deficits can reduce yield in the following River Basin, Australia; Central Valley, California, USA), rainfall is at or
season132. Owing to a reduced carbohydrate availability, effects on yield below 300 mm yr−1, and vines either cannot be grown, or yields would
losses are cumulative after multiple dry years133. be prohibitively low, without supplementary irrigation157. To achieve
The composition of grapes is also affected by water deficit. Because higher yields, irrigation is now expanding in countries where vines
photosynthesis is reduced under severe drought, the sugar import in used to be dry-farmed, like Spain. This growing use of irrigation is
berries is impaired, resulting in lower sugar content (when expressed increasing competition for the limited freshwater resources in these
in mg per berry). Berry growth is, however, also severely restricted, countries158,159. Drip irrigation reduces the amount of irrigation water
so sugar concentration (expressed as gl−1 sugar in grape juice) is not applied160 but increases the risk of soil salinization161.

Review article
Increased CO2 organic acid and amino acid metabolism, as well as secondary metabo-
In the future, atmospheric CO2 concentrations might reach 600 ppm or lites that have a strong impact on berry composition and wine quality,
over 1,000 ppm by the end of the twenty-first century, depending on the such as polyphenols and aromas108,180,181. Shading the vines with nets or
emission scenario117,162. Generally, elevated CO2 positively affects photo photovoltaic panels can be efficient options to mitigate the effects of
synthesis and enhances plant growth in C3 plants, owing to the CO2 heatwaves. Row orientation and training systems allowing more shade
fertilization effect163. However, some negative effects have also been on canopies and clusters are also long-term adaptation means to lower
reported on plant mineral status164 and in the control of cellular oxida- the detrimental effects of extreme temperatures178.
tion status and associated regulatory pathways to stress responses. The combined effects of more frequent drought and heatwaves
Together, these effects could underlie acclimation processes165. increase the likelihood of wildfires182. Areas planted with vineyards can
The few pluriannual enriched CO2 experiments (free-air CO2 buffer the progress of wildfires183 and might serve as natural firebreaks,
enrichment, known as FACE, and open-top chamber experiments) in because of biomass discontinuity and limited burning capacity184.
the field have shown a consistent increase in CO2 assimilation, biomass Nevertheless, vines subjected to wildfires can be damaged to vari-
accumulation at the vegetative and reproductive levels, water-use ous degrees by flame, heat and smoke, in particular under warm and
efficiency at the leaf level, and advanced phenology166–168. The effects dry climates. Vines heavily affected by heat present reduced growth,
on stomatal conductance and transpiration were inconsistent and starch concentrations in canes and buds, and fertility during the fol-
depended on variety and other climate parameters such as evaporative lowing season, with recovery taking up to 2 years185. When wines are
demand and the tested CO2 concentration. Berry sugar, organic acids produced with berries exposed to wildfire smoke during ripening,
and secondary metabolites such as polyphenols and aromas were only smoke taint is a major concern depreciating wine quality186. It provokes
marginally affected by increased CO2 concentration, and the effect was unpleasant ‘smoky’ and ‘ashy’ aromas and flavours caused by volatile
not consistent across years167,169. phenols produced during the combustion of plant biomass but also
Nevertheless, it is now clear that at the global level the positive by endogenous berry metabolic pathways through the shikimic acid
effects of CO2 on assimilation and biomass production are already and phenylpropanoid pathways187. Although volatile phenols decrease
offset by limiting abiotic factors such as increased vapour pressure quickly following grape exposure to smoke188, unripened berries can
deficit, drought and temperature170–172. When high temperatures also induce smoky aromas in wines. The accumulation of metabolites
(+2 °C) were combined with high CO2 (650 ppm), synergetic effects of the aforementioned glycosidic and shikimic pathways can be further
on carbon assimilation were observed, but an antagonist effect on transformed into undesirable compounds. Keeping vineyard surround-
stomatal conductance and transpiration, resulting in temperature ings free from bushy vegetation and vineyard soils free from grasses
neutralizing the positive effect of CO2 on water-use efficiency166. Under could mitigate wildfire damages in vineyards189.
high-temperature, high-CO2 climate change conditions (700 ppm [CO2] Extreme precipitation events are already occurring more fre-
and temperatures +4 °C) applied in a greenhouse during a single growth quently in many regions, and there is a high confidence that this trend
cycle, a decrease of anthocyanin to sugar ratio was observed109,173, simi- will continue117. It is predicted that at the global scale the frequency of
lar to ratios observed under elevated temperature only, suggesting that extreme precipitation events will increase by 2.7 times on average, with
the effects of elevated temperature alone predominate. about a 30% increase in volume per event for a 4 °C global warming
scenario117, which might strongly increase the risk of flooding events.
Extreme events For a 2 °C global warming scenario, the frequency of heavy rain events
Global warming is already modifying the occurrence of some extreme is predicted to increase by 1.7 times, with a 14% increase in volume
events, and this trend is likely to worsen during the twenty-first century per event.
regardless of the emission scenario considered. Summer heatwaves Flooding can affect both vineyards and buildings associated
have become more frequent and are stronger in amplitude117. For a with winemaking, with short- and long-term consequences, which
scenario of 4 °C global warming, heatwaves that occurred once every have subsequent major direct and indirect economic impacts on the
decade in the pre-industrial era are projected to occur almost every year, production190. Flood damage modelling efforts have been aimed at
exhibiting a 5 °C increase in amplitude as compared with heatwaves evaluating the risks and the potential economic consequences of
from the preindustrial era117. increasing flood frequency, mainly for compensation and insurance
Temperatures above 35 °C have a range of developmental, physio- purposes190,191. In the vineyard, impacts are threefold: the soil might be
logical and biochemical impacts on grapevines that depend on interac- affected with erosion or soil displacement, the vines can be uprooted
tions with other climate variables (for example drought and wind) and and the canopy partly or totally damaged, and finally the crop can
on the timing of their occurrence relative to the vine’s growth cycle174. be destroyed when flood occurs during the season before harvest190.
Extremely high temperatures (above 40–45 °C) can limit photosynthe- To mitigate flood damage to the vineyard, under-vine vegetation can
sis owing to damage to photosystem II and cause irreversible burning be grown to improve infiltration of rainwater and limit erosion in case
of leaves and berries175, with severe negative impacts on fruit yield. of heavy rain events. Competition for water from the cover crop is
Yield losses up to 30–45% have been reported due to heatwaves175,176. generally limited or non-existent, because under-vine vegetation
However, these data are rare, and it can be hypothesized that yield enhances deeper rooting, promoting the vine’s roots to access deep
losses could be even more severe if heatwaves occurred during or water reserves192. Equipment and stored wines can be destroyed by
just after flowering, causing flower abortion and a reduction of bunch flooding if the winery is located in a risky area, which should be avoided
biomass78,177, and/or in combination with extreme drought events174,178. as much as possible.
In addition to yield losses, heat stress negatively affects ripening and Although projections place high confidence in extreme precipi-
berry composition. For example, heatwaves during the green stages tation increase in the future, the change in hailstorm frequency and
of berry development delay the onset of ripening179,180. Exposure to intensity remains uncertain. An assessment suggested that hailstorm
extreme heat events during ripening can affect sugar accumulation, frequency might increase in Australia and Europe, but decrease in

Review article
Levels of drought change Confidence in the assessment Present-day precipitation level

Region High increase Low
acronym
Moderate increase Medium
0–2 °C 2–4 °C Slight increase High 150 450 750 1,050
of GW of GW Averaged mm year–1
Decrease
a North America b South America

BRC COL
WAS MON GLR NSC
ORS IDA NER ECU
CNC CIV AMA
CCC PER GCH SBR
SCA SWR NCV NAV URU
WME EME SCV SAV
CHU
c Europe d Africa
NUK SSC MAG
DEN BAR
IRI SUK
BNR NGE WNP ENP FNE
BRI NFR RMR CEB SPL TNS WUK EUK
ACF IFR SAR DBR NBS ETH
ASF GLI WPV EPV NBP TSS CEA
ANI NII MNS CIT EAD SBS
NPC CSP MSS WAD SBP WAN
SPO SOS WMI TYI EMI
WCA ECA
e Asia f Oceania
NEB
CAR CAS
SEB PMR XIN ICH ECH KJR
MEA SCH
WAU SAU INS EAU
WVI EVI NNZ
SNZ
TAS

Review article
Fig. 4 | Drought projections for winegrowing regions under warming of are averaged on the period 1979–1999 from Global Precipitation Climatology
2 °C and 4 °C. a–f, Projections for agricultural drought (soil moisture deficit) Project (GPCP) data254 and expressed in mm yr−1. The projections data are taken
in major current and future winegrowing regions for temperature increases of from CMIP6 climate models, gathered in Figure SPM.5 of the 2021 IPCC report117.
2 °C (left dot) and 4 °C (right dot), given the present-day level of precipitation, The level of confidence reflects the agreement among models as well as the
for North America (panel a), South America (panel b), Europe (panel c), size of the region concerned. In most regions, water availability will decline,
Africa (panel d), Asia (panel e) and Oceania (panel f). Abbreviations of each in particular in the Mediterranean basin.
winegrowing region are listed in Supplementary Table 1. Precipitation data
East Asia and North America, while hail severity will increase in most (Drosophila suzukii, native to Southeast Asia), which damages various
regions16. However, hail results from severe convective storms, includ- fruit crops including grapes, has been spreading in Europe and the
ing complex and fine-scale phenomena, which suffer inaccurate simula- United States since the early 2000s. Even if pest immigration is also
tions by climate models16. Hail can partly or totally destroy the annual related to increasing globalization, climate change affects the survival
vegetation of the vines, as well as the crop, with risks of pest and disease and continued spread of this species, owing to milder winters and
infections and secondary effects over several seasons. The fruit quality improved conditions for development during summer210.
might also be impaired193. Damage on latent buds can affect the pro- Studies of the consequences of climate change on grapevine
duction of the following year194. When there is high risk of hail, damage insects are mostly focused on Lobesia botrana, a moth from the
can be prevented by using nets or alternative vine-covering systems195. Tortricidae family, which inflicts damage on buds, flowers and berries
Finally, projections of the risks of future spring frost show worldwide. Its lifecycle traits, in particular its reproductive cycle, are
large uncertainties. Although the number of frost days is decreas- mostly driven by temperature conditions211. Hence, warming is chang-
ing and the date of the last spring frost is advancing, budbreak dates ing its phenology with earlier emergence212 and increased voltinism213
are also advancing. The relative rates of change of these events in (number of generations per year; Fig. 6). Yet an increase in the number
the future are strongly model-dependent, thus prohibiting a robust of generations does not necessarily produce additional damage, as
assessment14,15,196,197. Several methods have been developed for frost higher temperatures lead to an earlier harvest214,215. In hot production
protection in vineyards, including wind machines, over-vine sprinklers, areas (southern California, southern Spain, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and
budbreak delaying techniques198 and the increase of trunk height92. Palestine), where summer temperature approaches the upper thermal
Climate change implies that vineyards are increasingly subjected limit of this species, a decrease in L. botrana abundance is projected,
to constraining climate conditions, such as elevated temperature and whereas an increase is simulated during the twenty-first century in
heatwaves, drought or extreme precipitation, leading for example to northern California and most of Europe216,217.
increased risks of floods and wildfires. These hazards can alter the quan- Fungus or fungus-like related diseases do not only depend on
tity and the quality of harvested grapes as well as long-term vineyard temperature, but are highly sensitive to humidity and precipitation
sustainability. Adaptation strategies implemented by growers, either changes. Downy and powdery mildews are considered the most impor-
annually, such as pruning date or cover-crop management, or over the tant fungal threat for many wine-producing regions worldwide with
long-term, such as varietal choice, training systems and plantation a diversity of climate conditions218. These two diseases are caused by
sites, might substantially reduce the vulnerability of vineyards. polycyclic pathogens whose development is strongly dependent on the
weather conditions of the growing season. Plasmopara viticola, caus-
Changing impacts of pests and diseases ing downy mildew, requires rainfall and leaf wetness to contaminate
Winegrowers are challenged by a multitude of pathogens and insects grapevine at every stage of its development219. Owing to uncertainties
(hereafter termed bioaggressors), causing major yield and quality in precipitation changes in many regions at mid-latitudes117, projected
losses which sometimes limit economically viable wine production. changes in downy mildew risks yield contradictory results. In northeast
The current control of vineyard bioaggressors is mainly based on pes- France, less favourable conditions are expected owing to decreases
ticide applications, leading to soil and water pollution199, affecting in the duration and occurrence of leaf wetness and to temperatures
global health200, and leading to substantial global financial losses201. exceeding the optimum for infection220. In contrast, in northern Italy221
The impact of bioaggressors is strongly affected by climate, and climate and in many European wine regions222 the disease severity is expected
change is modifying the spatial distribution, frequency and intensity to slightly increase with rising temperature. Similar uncertainties
of bioaggressors202–204. exist for Erysiphe necator, the causal agent of powdery mildew214,223,224.
These changes may have negative, positive or neutral effects for Climate change might affect other major grapevine diseases such
viticulture (Fig. 6). Negative effects include more favourable condi- as grape grey mould, a ubiquitous disease worldwide218, caused by
tions for the development of pests201 and diseases202, immigration of Botrytis cinerea, or grapevine trunk diseases (a syndrome causing
pathogen vector203, increasing the speed of growth, and/or increased grapevine decay and caused by a large diversity of fungal pathogens225).
plant susceptibility204. Positive effects include conditions becoming As grey mould epidemics are strongly related to humidity conditions226,
unfavourable for the pathogen, more adapted conditions for a bioag- one could expect reduced grey mould where drier conditions during
gressor’s natural enemies, improvement in the plant’s defences, and/or grape ripening period are expected (Fig. 6). However, investigations
reduction in the plant’s susceptibility period205–209. All these interac- regarding these pathologies are few, rendering projections of their
tions might be affected in parallel and to a greater or lesser degree, possible evolution during the next decades uncertain.
making it very difficult to determine the direct impact of climate In conclusion, while climate optimum ranges are identified
change on bioaggressors. for development rate, spreading and virulence of many grapevine
Climate change might favour the expansion of invasive species bioaggressors219,227–229, projection of climate change impacts on
in new territories (Fig. 6). For example, the spotted wing drosophila grapevine phytopathology are challenging because of the existence

Review article
a Low drought tolerance Increased b High drought tolerance

transpiration
Decreased
transpiration
Decreased transpiration
• Reducing canopy size
• Reducing exposed leaf area
• Choosing varieties with lower Emax
• Choosing varieties with tighter
stomatal control
Increased access to soil water

• Decreasing vineyard density
• Deep soil preparation
• Choosing high-vigour and drought-
tolerant rootstocks
Fig. 5 | Drought-tolerance adaptation mechanisms in vines. Adaptation can be rootstocks and/or establishing vineyards in a manner that promotes deeper
achieved through either limiting transpiration or increasing access to soil water. rooting. Successfully adapting vineyards to drought is likely to require
Limiting transpiration can be achieved by reducing canopy size and/or choosing combining many of these adaptation mechanisms. Emax denotes maximal
varieties with more conservative stomatal control. Increasing access to soil water transpiration. Adapted from ref. 255 under a Creative Commons licence CC BY 4.0.
can be achieved by decreasing density, choosing high-vigour drought-tolerant
of complex interactions, including the genetic evolution of bioag- and 2021, and studies predict emerging viticultural suitability across
gressors (leading to adaptation to new climate conditions), microbial large portions of the country233.
ecology at plot and plant levels230, and pest–plant–parasites tritrophic Viticultural expansion requires either the conversion of existing
interactions231,232. agricultural land and/or the conversion of wild habitats. Thus, viticultural
expansion will have major impacts on land use and natural resources.
The impact of viticultural expansion Even within established wine regions, changing suitability could poten-
As detailed above, climate change threatens long-established viticul- tially threaten wild lands. As temperatures increase, higher elevations
tural regions throughout the world, and predicting future threats to might become increasingly suitable for viticulture, but this upslope
these regions has garnered a lot of attention. What is less studied is the expansion could encroach on wild habitats in mountain regions234,235.
potential impact of viticultural expansion into new regions. Changes Unfortunately, studies that detail changes in land use resulting
in climate are predicted to make large areas previously considered from viticultural expansion are scarce. One such study, examining
unsuitable or undesirable for viticulture into desirable regions10,13,37. expansion and changes in land use in the Prosecco region of Italy,
Most of these newly suitable regions are predicted to be at higher demonstrated that impacts on wild lands can be important. During
latitudes and/or altitudes. For example, suitable land area increases a 5-year period from 2007 to 2012, conversion of existing cropland
ranging from 80% to more than 200% (dependent on the degree of accounted for approximately 65% of the new expansion236, while the
warming) are predicted for the northerly regions of Europe and North remaining 35% was planted on converted grass and woodlands. We
America10. In addition, the expansion of newly suitable viticultural would expect the impact of viticultural expansion on wild habitats to
areas in Europe is predicted to greatly outpace losses, resulting in a be highly variable across different regions, but clearly, this expansion
net increase of as much as 40% by the end of the century13. Regional poses a real threat. Governmental authorities would be wise to monitor
studies have made similar predictions. For example, vineyard area in these conversions in order to quantify the extent to which wild lands are
the United Kingdom has expanded approximately 400% between 2004 being impacted.

Review article
Making accurate predictions regarding viticultural expansion is century because of increased imports from abroad247 and probably
difficult because it is dependent on many factors. The suitability predic- also because of the colder conditions of the Little Ice Age, which lasted
tions outlined in this Review are all based on environmental constraints, about 500 years from the fourteenth to mid-nineteenth century, with
but changes in vineyard area are dependent on additional factors, most average temperatures 0.4–0.7 °C lower than for a reference period
notably market forces. In the early 2000s, a period of rapid growth defined as 1961–1990 in the Northern Hemisphere and Europe246,248.
of viticulture in South Africa, warnings were made that increasing In Europe, the largest vineyard expansion occurred from the
local suitability could drive viticultural expansion into surrounding mid-eighteenth to the mid-nineteenth centuries, despite relatively
wild lands237. In reality, there has been a reduction in vineyard area in cool conditions. In France, vineyards increased by 43% between 1808
the region since the 2000s, because of decreased market demand238. and 1870 ref. 249, followed by a sudden collapse because of the phyl-
Although the warnings were correct to point out the threats posed by loxera outbreak. This expansion was mainly linked to the large social
viticultural expansion, this expansion was never realized because of demand due to the industrial development around major cities. In
other constraints. 1827, a detailed statistical analysis about vineyard location in France
Throughout history, vineyard locations have changed continu- showed that only the northwest of France had no vineyards at this
ously, at the local, national and international levels. Geopolitical issues, time250, presumably because of unsuitable climate conditions. In many
social demands, market forces, issues around transportation, natural of the emerging wine regions, viticulture development was first linked
crises such as disease outbreaks, and changes in environmental condi- to colonial expansion, with economic motivations being important
tions have been the main drivers of change239–243. There are numerous drivers of vineyard development247,251.
historical examples. Archaeological excavations show that viticul- The extent to which viticulture will expand into new regions
ture existed in Great Britain during the Roman period244 when climate remains an open question and depends to a large extent on market
conditions in the Northern Hemisphere were almost as warm as the forces. This potential expansion holds economic opportunities but also
1960–1990 reference period245,246. It disappeared after the sixteenth risks the loss of wild lands and increased consumption of freshwater
Downy mildew Insects

• Fewer contaminations • Survival, growth and
in drier conditions voltinism*
• Higher rate of • Reproduction and defences
development against natural enemies
• Earlier disease outbreak • Shifts in distribution ranges
Powdery mildew Natural enemies
• Higher rate of and bioaggressors
development interaction
• Earlier disease outbreak potentially
affected
Grey mould
• Fewer contaminations in
drier conditions
Grapevine trunk diseases

and viruses
• Uncertain outcome
Synchrony between plant
susceptibility period and
bioaggressor attack
potentially affected
Positive impact of climate change

Negative impact of climate change
Neutral/unknown outcome of
climate change
Fig. 6 | Potential positive and negative impacts of climate change on major show various changes in their life traits that might either limit or increase their
pests and diseases in vines. For each bioaggressor, coloured backgrounds harmfulness. Phytopathology depends not only on the bioaggressors’ biological
to each statement identify the positive or negative expected consequences features but also on plant vulnerability to pests and diseases232. Moreover,
of climate change as reported or hypothesized in the scientific literature. interactions (depicted by circular arrows) of bioaggressors with their natural
In subtropical to mid-latitude wine regions where drier conditions during the enemies or trophic competitors, such as parasitoids, might modify pest and
growing season are expected, downy mildew pressure should decrease as a result disease issues in the vineyard256. As a result, pest-related damages, as well as the
of reduced contamination. In contrast, powdery mildew pressure should increase outcomes of grey mould, viruses and grapevine trunk diseases in a changing
owing to earlier and faster development of the pathogen. Insects, which either climate, remain highly uncertain. Credit: insets showing grapevine pests and
transport virus and phytoplasma or provide direct damage to grapevine, will diseases courtesy of Marielle Adrian, Anais Pertuizet, and Fanny Vogelweith.

Review article
resources when new vineyards are irrigated. Regions where this expan- natural ecosystems and biodiversity need to be considered and nega-
sion is likely to occur should be proactive about mitigating these tive impacts mitigated. This could mean avoiding the conversion of wild
negative impacts on natural resources. lands, designing new vineyards to be dry-farmed wherever possible to
eliminate the need for irrigation, and/or emphasizing sustainability
Summary and future perspectives and environmental stewardship.
This Review outlines the huge challenges that climate change is present- The most important aspect of wine production is the finished
ing for viticulture and provides a consensus map on suitability gains and product. All adaptations to climate change must preserve the eco-
losses that details potential changes to the distribution of winegrowing nomic sustainability of production through maintaining adequate
regions globally. The exact extent of these changes remains unknown yields and quality that meet consumer demands152. Working with the
and will depend on the magnitude of climate change along with the market and the consumers can be the biggest challenge, and sometimes
ability to adapt to these challenges. The primary threats are increased highly effective adaptation options remain unused because of market
heat and drought, extreme weather events, and unpredictability with constraints (for example new hybrid varieties and genetically modified
regard to changing pest and disease pressure. The regions that are varieties). Marketing wine by the region of origin and not by the variety
most at risk are those with already hot and dry climates. Without radi- is a route to consumer’s acceptance of the use of less-known varieties,
cal adaptation, some of these regions are clearly threatened. Change which might potentially be better adapted to the changing climate253.
also brings with it opportunities, as some regions will benefit, and One thing is certain: climate change will drive major changes in
new wine regions will surely emerge. However, these changes are not global wine production in the near future. Having the flexibility to
without consequences either, and expanding viticulture could bring adapt to these changes will be essential.
with it impacts on natural resource consumption and wild habitats.
Where possible, these climate challenges need to be met with Data availability
robust science-based adaptation strategies. Some adaptations to The suitability assessment compiled in Fig. 1 can be obtained by apply-
hotter and drier climates are already known and embody simple, ing, for each region identified in Supplementary Table 1, the method-
sound agronomic principles. For example, heatwave damage can be ology explained in the Supplementary note and in Supplementary
mitigated through changing canopies to increase the shading of fruit, Tables 3, 4 and 5, for each specific reference selected in Supplementary
and vineyard water use can be reduced through decreased planting Table 2.
density and smaller canopies. Given the geographical range across The data underlying Fig. 3 are freely available, for the observed pre-
which grapevine is cultivated, it can be argued that it is a highly toler- cipitations at http://gpcp.umd.edu/ and for drought projections at https://
ant crop, but concrete climate thresholds for losses in fruit and wine catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/1b91153925dd474387bb696d59adbd15.
quality, and the knowledge of how these thresholds vary with variety,
rootstock and management practices, are still lacking. The difficulty in Published online: xx xx xxxx
predicting hard thresholds for decreased fruit quality and production
References
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brought about by the winegrowers themselves.
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Climate change impacts and

Climate change is affecting grape yield, composition and wine Introduction

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

a North America b South America

WAS MON GLR NSC

ORS IDA NER ECU

CNC CIV AMA

CCC PER GCH SBR

SCA SWR NCV NAV URU

WME EME SCV SAV

BRI NFR RMR CEB SPL TNS WUK EUK

ACF IFR SAR DBR NBS ETH

ASF GLI WPV EPV NBP TSS CEA

ANI NII MNS CIT EAD SBS

NPO CSP MSS WAD SBP WAN

SPO SOS WMI TYI EMI

SEB PMR XIN ICH ECH KJR

WVI EVI NNZ

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

Risk of T < 0° Risk of T > 35° Optimal ripening window

Budburst Flowering Veraison Ripening Harvest

Budburst Flowering Veraison Ripening Harvest

With human intervention (adaptation)

Budburst Flowering Veraison Ripening Harvest

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

Levels of drought change Confidence in the assessment Present-day precipitation level

a North America b South America

WAS MON GLR NSC

ORS IDA NER ECU

CNC CIV AMA

CCC PER GCH SBR

SCA SWR NCV NAV URU

WME EME SCV SAV

BRI NFR RMR CEB SPL TNS WUK EUK

ACF IFR SAR DBR NBS ETH

ASF GLI WPV EPV NBP TSS CEA

ANI NII MNS CIT EAD SBS

NPC CSP MSS WAD SBP WAN

SPO SOS WMI TYI EMI

SEB PMR XIN ICH ECH KJR

WVI EVI NNZ

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

a Low drought tolerance Increased b High drought tolerance

Increased access to soil water

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

Downy mildew Insects

Grapevine trunk diseases

Positive impact of climate change

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment