Adama Science and Technology University Urban Transportation System Planning

CHAPTER FOUR
TRANSPORT MODELING

4.1. Transport Modeling

Modeling is an important part of any large scale decision making process in any system. There
are large numbers of factors that affect the performance of the system. It is not possible for the
human brain to keep track of all the players in system and their interactions and
interrelationships. Therefore we resort to models which are some simplified, at the same time
complex enough to reproduce key relationships of the reality. Modeling could be physical,
symbolic, or mathematical. The important objective is that models seek to isolate key
relationships, and not to replicate the entire structure Transport modeling is the study of the
behavior of individuals in making decisions regarding the provision and use of transport.
Therefore, unlike other engineering models, transport modeling tools have evolved from many
disciplines like economics, psychology, geography, sociology, and statistics.

 Therefore transport modeling is

 a simplified mathematical representation of a small part of the real world, aiming at
describing and explaining travel behaviour and visualising the amount and patterns of
transport
 Mathematical models which on basis of data for land use and the transport system,
together with an understanding of human behavior, calculates the resulting traffic on
the transport network for the present and future conditions. For the present situation these
calculations can be compared with the traffic we can observe on the roads, in the streets
and on the public transport system.
 Purpose of Transport Model
 The purpose of transportation model is to help transport planners make reliable forecasts
of traffic demand that reflect the effects of changes in population, social, and economic
conditions as well as changes in the transport network. For example, reliable forecast of
future traffic reduces a risk of building facilities that will either receive little use or be
prematurely overloaded.

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 Providing traffic data for the future; thus understanding the challenges to come;
congestion, environmental conditions, future transport costs for people and for business /
industry, accessibility and mobility, etc
 Analyzing the effect of alternative traffic plans / projects providing traffic data for
“benefit-cost-analysis”
 Providing traffic data for calculating the development of traffic accidents and
environmental conditions

4.2. Transport Demand and Supply

The concept of demand and supply are fundamental to economic theory and is widely applied in
the field to transport economics. In the area of travel demand and the associated supply of
transport infrastructure, the notions of demand and supply could be applied. However, we must
be aware of the fact that the transport demand is a derived demand, and not a need in itself. That
is, people travel not for the sake of travel, but to practice in activities in different locations.

Figure 4. 1 Transport Demand and Supply

The concept of equilibrium is central to the supply-demand analysis. It is a normal practice to

plot the supply and demand curve as a function of cost and the intersection is then plotted in the
equilibrium point as shown in Figure 4.1 The demand for travel T is a function of cost C is easy
to conceive. The classical approach defines the supply function as giving the quantity T which
would be produced, given a market price C. Since transport demand is a derived demand, and the
benefit of transportation on the non-monetary terms (time in particular), the supply function
takes the form in which C is the unit cost associated with meeting a demand T. Thus, the supply
function encapsulates response of the transport system to a given level of demand. In other
words, supply function will answer the question what will be the level of service of the system, if

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the estimated demand is loaded to the system. The most common supply function is the link
travel time function which relates the link volume and travel time.

4.3. Travel Demand Modeling

Travel demand is expressed as the number of persons or vehicles per unit time that can be
expected to travel on a given segment of a transportation system under a set of given land-use,
socioeconomic, and environmental conditions. Forecasts of travel demand are used to establish
the loads on future or modified transportation system alternatives. The methods for forecasting
travel demand can range from a simple extrapolation of observed trends to a sophisticated
computerized process involving extensive data gathering and mathematical modeling. There are
two basic demand forecasting situations in transportation planning. The first involves travel
demand studies for urban areas, and the second deals with intercity travel demand. Urban travel
demand forecasts, requires that extensive databases be prepared using home interview and/or
roadside interview surveys. The information gathered provided useful insight concerning the
characteristics of the trip maker, such as age, sex, income, auto ownership, and so forth, the land
use at each end of the trip, and the mode of travel. Travel data could then be aggregated by zone
and/or be used at a more disaggregated level-that is, household or individual-to formulate
relationships between variables and to calibrate models. In the intercity case, data generally are
aggregated to a greater extent than for urban travel forecasting, such as city population, average
city income, and travel time or travel cost between city pairs.

■ Factor Influencing Travel Demand:

 Land use characteristics
- Shopping centers
- Residential complexes
- Industrial area
- Office buildings
- Recreational etc.
 socio-economic characteristics (income group level, housed size, car ownership, etc)
 Availability of transport facilities and services
- travel time,
- travel cost
- Convenience
- Comfort

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- Safety etc affect the modal choice

■ Transport models are organized in to four basic stages/steps:

 Trip production and attraction: Models based on data for land use calculate the
number of trip produced and attracted to each zone in the study area
 Trip distribution :Models are used to calculate the trip pattern connecting trip
productions and attractions
 Mode Choice: Trips from an origin (zone) to a destination are distributed to the different
modes of transport by mode choice models
 Traffic Assignment: Car trips and public transport trips are distributed to the road
network through Traffic Assignment Model

■ Results from the transport models

 Link flows on road network

 Travelers on public transport lines
 Modal split
 “Transport work”; vehicle-km, person-km
 Link speed and delays; today and in the future
 Travel times on links and between links.

4.3.1. Trip generation models

Trip generation is the first stage of the classical first generation aggregate demand models. The
trip generation aims at predicting the total number of trips generated and attracted to each zone
of the study area. In other words this stage answers the questions to ``how many trips" originate
at each zone, from the data on household and socioeconomic attributes. In this section basic
definitions, factors affecting trip generation, and the two main modeling approaches; namely
growth factor modeling and regression modeling are discussed.

Types of trip
Some basic definitions are appropriate before we address the classification of trips in detail. We
will attempt to clarify the meaning of journey, home based trip, and non home based trip, trip
production, trip attraction and trip generation.

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Adama Science and Technology University Urban Transportation System Planning

Journey is an out way movement from a point of origin to a point of destination, where as the
word ``trip" denotes an outward and return journey. If either origin or destination of a trip is the
home of the trip maker then such trips are called home based trips and the rest of the trips are
called non home based trips. Trip production is defined as all the trips of home based or as the
origin of the non home based trips.

Trips can be classified by trip purpose, trip time of the day, and by person type. Trip generation
models are found to be accurate if separate models are used based on trip purpose. The trips can
be classified based on the purpose of the journey as trips for work, trips for education, trips for
shopping, trips for recreation and other trips. Among these the work and education trips are often
referred as mandatory trips and the rest as discretionary trips. All the above trips are normally
home based trips and constitute about 80 to 85 percent of trips. The rest of the trips namely non
home based trips, being a small proportion are not normally treated separately. The second way
of classification is based on the time of the day when the trips are made. The broad classification
is into peak trips and off peak trips. The third way of classification is based on the type of the
individual who makes the trips. This is important since the travel behavior is highly influenced
by the socio economic attribute of the traveler and are normally categorized based on the income
level, vehicle ownership and house hold size. Trip generation analysis has two functions:

 To develop a relationship between trip end production or attraction and land use, and
 To use the relationship developed to estimate the number of trips generated at some
future date under a new set of land-use conditions.

Compulsory or mandatory trips

• Home to work
• Home to school or college

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Optional trips
• Shopping trips
• Social and recreational trips
• Other trips

Factors affecting trip generation

The main factors affecting personal trip production include income, vehicle ownership, house
hold structure and family size. In addition factors like value of land, residential density and
accessibility are also considered for modeling at zonal levels. The personal trip attraction, on the
other hand, is influenced by factors such as roofed space available for industrial, commercial and
other services. At the zonal level zonal employment and accessibility are also used. In trip
generation modeling in addition to personal trips, freight trips are also of interest. Although the
latter comprises about 20 percent of trips, their contribution to the congestion is significant.
Freight trips are influenced by number of employees, number of sales and area of commercial
firms.

 Methods of Trip generation analysis

Trip generation analysis has two functions:

 to develop a relationship between trip end production or attraction and land use, and
 to use the relationship developed to estimate the number of trips generated at some
future date under a new set of land-use conditions.

To illustrate the process we will consider three methods:

 Cross classification method

 Rates Based on Activity Units
 Regression Model

a) Cross Classification
 Cross classification is a technique developed by the Federal Highway Administration
(FHWA) to determine the number of trips that begin or end at the home.
 Home-based represent up to 80 percent of all trips.
 The first step is to develop a relationship between socioeconomic measures and trip
production to produce trip rates by cross classification or category analysis.
 The two variables most commonly used are average annual income and auto/car
ownership.

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
Other variables that could be considered are household size and stage in the household
life cycle.
 Some thought should be given to:
 What dimensions to cross-classify (no of cars owned OR No. of HH members)
 What groupings of these levels (0,1,2+ OR 0,1,2,3+)
Example 1

Suppose a survey finds the data on weekly trip making as given in (2) and the distribution of HH
car ownership as is tabulated in (3). In (4) the avg. number of trips per HH is calculated to be 43.

If the distribution of HH with a certain no. of cars changes as shown in (5), category analysis
holds (2) constant and calculates new average trips per house hold.

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

Number of cars Weekly Number of Initial Distribution (2)*(3) New Distribution of (2)*(5)
owned by HH trips made by HH of HH HH

0 30 50% 15 30% 9

1 50 40% 20 50% 25

2+ 80 10% 8 20% 16

43 50

Example 2

Let see how a trip rate can be developed from the cross relation of household size and auto/car
ownership.

No. of trips, Household size vs. Auto/Car ownership.

Auto/Car Ownership

0 1 2+

HH
size HH No. Trips HH No. Trips HH No. Trips

1 1200 2520 2560 6144 54 130

2 874 2098 3456 9676 5921 20165

3+ 421 1137 2589 8026 8642 33704

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Trip rates = Trips/No. of HH

Auto/Car Ownership

HH
0 1 2+
size

1 2.1 2.4 2.4

2 2.4 2.8 3.4

3+ 2.7 3.1 3.9

b) Rates Based on Activity Units

The preceding section illustrated how trip generation is determined for residential zones where
the basic unit is the household. Trips generated at the household end are referred to as
productions, and they are attracted to zones for purposes such as work, shopping, visiting friends,
and medical trips or other for other trip purposes. Thus, an activity unit can be described by
measures such as square feet of floor space or number of employees. Trips generation rates for
attraction zones can be determined from such survey data.
Table 4.1

c) Regression models
 Regression models are a family of trip production models which use regression analysis
to develop a model.
 Simple general regression model:

Y  a b X

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 Here Y is number trip produced and X is the one of the socio-economic factor/parameter,
e.g. as shown in the example below household size

Multiple regression analysis

Y    1 X 1  ...   n X n  

The equation for the regression line is Y= a+ b*X

Example: Household data for regression analysis

18

16

14
Number of trips prodused

12

10

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Size of household

Household data with regression line

18

16

14
Number of trips produced

12

10

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Size of household

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We have already stated that trip production is influenced by many household characteristics:

• Income
• Car ownership
• Household structure
(number of employed persons)
• Family size

If we move from households to individuals we can add even more factors:

• Sex
• Age
• Employed
Thus the simple regression model we have been dealing with so far is insufficient; we need a
tool that can handle more variables. One of the answers is multiple regression analysis.

Example

Let:

Ti= number of trips in a month, by zone i

Dj = no. of trips attracted to zone j

Pi= population for zone i

Ui = dwelling units in zone i

A = no. of automobiles in zone i

Ei = total employment in zone i

Ti  0.34 Pi  0.21U i  0.12 A

D j  57.2  0.87 Ei
2) Trip Distribution

Trip distribution analysis is a process by which the trips generated in one zone are allocated to
other zones in the study area. The major product of trip distribution models is an O-D matrix that
shows the no. trips originated in the study zone and where these trips are destined to. For
example, if the trip generation analysis results in an estimate of 200 HBW trips in zone 10, then
the trip distribution analysis would determine how many of these trips would be made between
zone 10 and all the other zones.

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4.1

Definitions and notations

Trip matrix

The trip pattern in a study area can be represented by means of a trip matrix or origin-destination
(O-D) matrix. This is a two dimensional array of cells where rows and columns represent each of
the zones in the study area. The notation of the trip matrix is given in figure 4:1. The cells of
each row i contain the trips originating in that zone which have as destinations the zones in the
corresponding columns. Tij is the number of trips between origin i and destination j. Oi is the
total number of trips between originating in zone i and Dj is the total number of trips attracted to
zone j. The sum of the trips in a row should be equal to the total number of trips emanating from
that zone. The sum of the trips in a column is the number of trips attracted to that zone. These
two constraints can be represented as: ∑ = Oi , ∑ = Dj If reliable information is available
to estimate both Oi and Dj, the model is said to be doubly constrained. In some cases, there will
be information about only one of these constraints; the model is called singly constrained.

We use the trip distribution models to create the complete O-D matrix.

Two methods are in use:

 Gravity Model
 Growth Factor Model

a) Growth Factor Model

i. Uniform growth factor

If the only information available is about a general growth rate for the whole of the study area,
then we can only assume that it will apply to each cell in the matrix, which is a uniform growth
rate. The equation can be written as:

Tij = g x tij

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where g is the uniform growth factor tij is the previous total number of trips, Tij is the expanded
total number of trips. Advantages are that they are simple to understand, and they are useful for
short-term planning. Limitation is that the same growth factor is assumed for all zones as well as
attractions.

ii. Fratar Method

The most popular growth factor model is the Fratar method, which is a mathematical formula
that proportions future trip generation estimates to each zone as a function of the product of the
current trips between the two zones Tij and the growth factor of the attracting zone Gj.

iii. Average Growth Method

A more general form of growth factor model than the Fratar method is the average growth factor
model. Rather than weighting the growth of trips between zone i and j by the growth across all
zones, as is done in the Fratar method, the growth rate of trips between any zones i and j is
simply the average of the growth rates of these zones.

Application of the average growth factor method proceeds similarly to that of the Fratar method.
As iterations continue, the growth factors converge toward unity. Iterations can cease when an
acceptable degree of convergence in the values is reached; one such practice is to continue until
all growth factors are within 5 percent of unity (i.e., between 0.95 and 1.05).

Advantages and limitations of growth factor model

The advantages of this method are:

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1. Simple to understand.

2. Preserve observed trip pattern.

3. useful in short term-planning.

The limitations are:

1. Depends heavily on the observed trip pattern.

2. It cannot explain unobserved trips.
3. Do not consider changes in travel cost.
4. Not suitable for policy studies like introduction of a mode.

b) Gravity Model

The most widely used and documented trip distribution model is the gravity model, which states
that the number of trips between two zones is directly proportional to the number of trip
attractions generated by the zone of destination and inversely proportional to a function of time
of travel between the two zones. Mathematically, the gravity model is expressed as

where
Tij _ number of trips that are produced in zone i and attracted to zone j
Pi _ total number of trips produced in zone i
Aj _ number of trips attracted to zone j
Fij _ a value which is an inverse function of travel time
Kij _ socioeconomic adjustment factor for interchange ij
The values of Pi and Aj have been determined in the trip generation process. The sum of Pi for
all zones must equal the sum of Aj for all zones. Kij values are used when the estimated trip
interchange must be adjusted to ensure that it agrees with the observed trip interchange.
The values for Fij are determined by a calibrating process in which trip generation values as
measured in the O-D survey are distributed using the gravity model. After each distribution
process is completed, the percentage of trips in each trip length category produced by the gravity
model is compared with the percentage of trips recorded in the O-D survey. If the percentages do
not agree, then the Fij factors that were used in the distribution process are adjusted and another
gravity model trip distribution is performed. The calibration process is continued until the trip
length percentages are in agreement.

The socioeconomic factor is used to make adjustments of trip distribution Kij values between
zones where differences between estimated and actual values are significant. The K value is
referred to as the “socioeconomic factor” since it accounts for variables other than travel time.

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The values for K are determined in the calibration process, but it is used judiciously when a zone
is considered to possess unique characteristics.

3) Mode Choice

 Mode choice is that aspect of the demand analysis process that determines the number (or
percentage) of trips between zones that are made the different transport modes.
 The selection of one mode or another depends on factors such as:
- the types of trip purpose (work, leisure),
- time of day,
- Characteristics of the trip maker (traveler's income, age, car-ownership)
- the availability of the different modes,
- and the relative advantages of each mode (characteristics of the mode in terms of
travel time, cost, comfort, convenience, and safety).
 There are different types modal choice models/procedures exist and under the scope of
this course we shall only see the widely used type of modal choice model, which is the
Logit Model.

Logit Model

 Logit model considers the relative utility of each mode as a summation of each modal
attribute. Then the choice of a mode is expressed as a probability distribution.
 Mode utilities are attributable:
– to the user (time, price, …),
– to the service characteristics of a mode (reliability, safety, comfort),
– others
 The Utility of a mode is the “satisfaction” a user derives from using a certain mode of
transport. It is a linear combination of cost attributes a transport mode presents to its user
e.g. U = ao – a1TT – b2 Price +a3Comfort+….+anX

 The Logit Model is given by the following expression:

eUit
Pit 
 eUjt
All j
Pit = probability of individual t choosing mode i
Uit = Utility of mode i to individual t
Ujt = Utility of mode j to individual t
Note that the method is based on one individual’s Utility from the different modes.
4) Traffic Assignment

 The final step in the transportation forecasting process is to determine the actual street
and highway routes that will be used and the number of automobiles and buses that can
be expected on each highway segment.
 The procedure used to determine the expected traffic volumes is known as traffic
assignment.

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 To carry out a trip assignment, the following data are required:

 Number of trips that will be made from one zone to another (this information was
determined in the trip distribution phase).
 The available highway or transit routes between zones and how long it will take to
travel on each route.
 A decision rule (or algorithm) that states the criteria by which motorists or transit
users will select a route.
Three different approaches can be used, and most are based on minimum travel time, theses are:

a) The Diversion Curve Method

 The traffic between two routes is determined as a function of relative travel time or cost.

Percent travel on rout B

Travel time ratio=Time of route A/Time of route B

b) Minimum Path Method

 The minimum path assignment is based on the theory that a user will select the quickest
route between any 0-D pair.
 In other words, the traveler will always select the route that represents minimum travel
time.
 Thus, to determine which route that will be, it is necessary to find the shortest route from
the zone of origin to all other destination zones.
c) Capacity Restraint Method

 A modification of the minimum path method.

 The number of trips assigned to each link is compared with the capacity of the link to
determine the extent to which link travel times have been reduced.
 A reassignment is then made based on these new values. The iteration process continues
until an equilibrium balance is achieved.

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