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Tsunami earthquakes as transient phenomena

Article in Geophysical Research Letters · May 2002


DOI: 10.1029/2002GL014868

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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 29, NO. 10, 10.1029/2002GL014868, 2002

Tsunami earthquakes as transient phenomena


Tetsuzo Seno
Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Received 6 February 2002; revised 1 April 2002; accepted 11 April 2002; published 24 May 2002.

[1] Recent modeling of tsunami waveforms caused by tsunami produces the same order of stress drop (1 MPa) as ordinary
earthquakes indicates that fault slip occurred along the subduction earthquakes, and how such a stress can be maintained in stable
boundary close to the trench axis. On the other hand, it is well sliding sediments remains unresolved. Furthermore faulting close
known that seismicity is generally very low within ca. 50 km from to the trench axis must occur of very low dips, which makes the
the trench axis, and this has been attributed to the stable frictional uplift less efficient. To compensate this, Seno [2000] proposed that
soft sediments near the toe of the trench slope are offscraped by a
sliding properties of the subducted unconsolidated sediments. This
sudden horizontal movement of the backstop over the decollement
makes tsunamigenic slip near the trench difficult to explain. In (the detachment surface between offscraped and subducted sedi-
order to solve this dilemma, I propose that transition from stable ments), causing an inelastic uplift at the toe. This effect was
sliding to nearly zero friction, with a velocity-weakening property, demonstrated to be potentially effective by numerical simulations
occurs as a result of areal increase of zones of elevated fluid of tsunamis of the 1896 tsunami earthquake off the Sanriku coast
pressure, which may make fairly rapid seismic slip possible of northern Honshu [Tanioka and Seno, 2001]; the required fault
following the breakage of asperities at normal seismogenic depths. slip of 10 m without sediment deformation was reduced to 6 m.
This transition can be identified as seismic reflections with [4] Above all, the large slip occurring along a shallow part of
negative polarities, which may help to rate hazards for a coming the subduction boundary remains as the largest enigma regarding
large tsunami earthquake. INDEX TERMS: 7209 Seismology: tsunami earthquakes. It is known that seismicity is usually sparse
within a distance of ca. 50 km of the trench axis [Hirata et al.,
Earthquake dynamics and mechanics; 7223 Seismology: Seismic
1983; Byrne et al., 1988; Scholz, 1998], and this has been
hazard assessment and prediction; 7230 Seismology: Seismicity attributed to the stable frictional sliding of unconsolidated sedi-
and seismotectonics; 8120 Tectonophysics: Dynamics of ments subducted beneath the decollement and deeper zones [Mar-
lithosphere and mantle—general; 8123 Tectonophysics: one and Scholz, 1988; Scholz, 1998; Hyndman et al., 1997]. This
Dynamics, seismotectonics stable sliding property is characterized by a positive a b value,
where a and b are coefficients in the rate and state dependent
friction laws [Dieterich, 1979; Ruina, 1983], and a fault zone with
1. Introduction this property operates as an absorbing barrier [Tse and Rice, 1986;
[2] For a variety of reasons, and disaster mitigation in particular, Boatwright and Cocco, 1996; Kato and Hirasawa, 1999] if seismic
it is important to understand the occurrence of tsunami earth- faulting occurs at a nearby asperity, making the occurrence of
quakes, for which tsunamis are larger than expected given their tsunami earthquakes difficult to explain. In this paper, I show first
surface wave magnitudes. Previous studies have elucidated how that slip distributions associated with recent large earthquakes off
tsunami earthquakes occur and proposed various models for their northern Honshu are consistent with the above stable sliding
occurrence. Tsunami earthquakes are generally characterized by frictional properties, then discuss a possibility of transient effective
slow faulting, manifest as a deficiency of short period components normal stress and its effects on frictional stability as applied to the
of seismic radiation relative to long periods [Kanamori, 1972; occurrence of tsunami earthquakes.
Pelayo and Wiens, 1992; Kanamori and Kikuchi, 1993; Polet and
Kanamori, 2000]. However, it is also known that slow slip alone is 2. Recent Large Earthquakes Off Northern
insufficient to explain the small magnitudes compaired with
anomalously large tsunamis produced by some tsunami earth- Honshu
quakes, such as the 1896 Sanriku and 1946 Aleutian earthquakes [5] In the subduction zone off Sanriku, northern Honshu, close
[Fukao, 1979; Kanamori and Kikuchi, 1993]. Upheaval by high- to the rupture zone of the 1896 tsunami event, large (Ms > 7)
angle splay faulting off the main thrust within a weak accretionary earthquakes have occurred recently in 1989, 1992, and 1994
prism [Fukao, 1979], landslides caused by shaking [Kanamori and (Figure 1, Table 1). Though these events had aftershock areas
Kikuchi, 1993], and larger seismic slip due to low rigidity of extending very close to the trench axis, they were not tsunami
sediments along the shallow thrust zone [Geist and Bilek, 2001], earthquakes (compare their magnitudes with those of the 1896
have been proposed as mechanisms for the required additional event in Table 1). The asperities ruptured in these recent events
uplift. [Nagai et al., 2001; Yamanaka et al., 2001] were generally located
[3] On the other hand, recent modeling of tsunami waveforms in the deeper part of their aftershock zones (Figure 1, Hino et al.
of tsunami earthquakes based on dislocation theory has revealed [1999]; Tohoku University [1990]), indicating that only small
that fault slip in several cases occurred very close to the trench axis amounts of seismic slip occurred in the shallow portion near the
[Satake, 1994; Piatanesi et al., 1996; Tanioka and Satake, 1996; trench. Moreover, borehole strain meters on the coast and GPS
Johnson and Satake, 1997; Satake and Tanioka, 1999]. Tsunami velocities throughout northern Honshu indicate that large amounts
source areas of historical tsunami earthquakes also show similar of afterslip occurred with a time scale of 1 day to 1 year in the
features [Ishibashi, 1983, 1986]. These make the involvement of aftershock zones of these events [Kawasaki et al., 1995; Heki et al.,
splay faults unlikely. The low rigidity (10 GPa) of sediments in 1997]. This behavior, i.e., small slip at the time of an earthquake
the shallow portion of the boundary can produce larger slip given and large afterslip, is similar to that predicted by the numerical
the same seismic moment [Geist and Bilek, 2001], however, this simulation of frictional slip with a stable sliding zone in the
shallow portion of the subduction boundary [Kato and Hirasawa,
Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union. 1999]. These are completely consistent with the idea that a shallow
0094-8276/02/2002GL014868$05.00 subduction boundary constitutes a fault zone with positive a b

58 - 1
58 - 2 SENO: TSUNAMI EARTHQUAKES AS TRANSIENT PHENOMENA

Figure 2. (a) Relative true-amplitude depth section of the seismic


reflection line in Northern Barbados [Shipley et al., 1994]. (b) Two
sections illustrating waveforms associated with the decollement in
Northern Barbados [Shipley et al., 1994]. Top is relatively high
amplitude, compound-negative polarity reflection; below is
example of transition from compound-negative polarity to positive
polarity.

Figure 1. Aftershock areas [Hino et al., 1996; Tohoku University,


1990] and asperities [Nagai et al., 2001; Yamanaka et al., 2001] of
recent earthquakes. Epicenters of the corresponding events are
indicated by stars. The fault zone of the 1896 tsunami earthquake quakes, volcanism, metamorphism and so on. Fluids released by
[Tanioka and Satake, 1996] is also shown. The aftershock areas for compaction of interstitial and fracture pore spaces or by dehydra-
the 1994, 1992, and 1989 events are lightly shaded, and their tion of clay minerals migrate along the decollement - thrusts in the
asperities are darkly shaded. An asperity within the fault slip area accretionary prism. Recent seismic reflection and ocean drilling
marked by the thin line is defined by the region whose seismic surveys have revealed that reflection signals along the decollement
moment amounts to a half of the total moment. The strong exhibit substantial spatial variation [Moore and Shipley, 1993;
reflections revealed by seismic surveys [Fujie et al., 2000] are Shipley et al., 1994]. For example, in some places the decollement
indicated by ‘‘F’’, with the low seismicity area shown by the produces a negative polarity reflection, but not in others, and
dashed line. reflection amplitudes also vary (Figure 2, Shipley et al. [1994]).
This is most easily explained by variations in impedance (velocity
x density) and thickness of the decollement. Negative polarity
[e.g., Scholz, 1998]. Provided that these recent events shared the reflections usually have their origin in a thin (10 m) layer
fault zone with the 1896 event (Figure 1), it seems difficult to of lower impedance than surrounding layers, which is attributed
explain the occurrence of the 1896 event by general factors such as to pore space dilation by overpressured fluids [e.g., Moore
paucity of subducted sediments and so on (see Tanioka and Satake and Shipley, 1993]. The fluid pressures of such layers are
[1996] and Polet and Kanamori [2000] for this kind of explan- estimated to be 86 – 98% of the lithostatic pressure [Tobin
ation). Note also that tsunami earthquakes are very rare; i.e., none et al., 1994].
of the same subduction zone segments has experienced a tsunami [7] The existence of elevated fluid pressures requires sealing
earthquake more than once during historic times. and fluid infiltration, which will dissipate with time unless an
effective seal can be continually maintained; thus high pore
pressures themselves must be an indication of transience. This
3. Transient Frictional Stability was confirmed by measurements in the holes of ODP Leg110
[6] In subduction zones, fluids expelled from the subducting near the toe of the Barbados accretionary prism. Fisher and
plate play important roles in various phenomena such as earth- Hounslow [1990], using shapes of geotherms and geochemical
anomalies, showed that flows through the horizontal conduits
had a transient nature with a time constant of decades to
Table 1. Magnitudes of Earthquakes off Sanriku Coast, N. Japan thousands of years. This indicates the high and/or low fluid
Date Ms Mw Mt pressures seen in Figure 2 may not be a permanent but rather
transient characteristic of the fault zone; a wide area along the
1989 11 02 7.4 7.4 7.5
1992 07 18 7.1 6.9 7.2 decollement might be covered by negative polarity reflections
1994 12 28 7.5 7.7 7.7 temporarily.
1896 06 15 7.2 8.0 – 8.1 8.6 [8] The effective normal stress in such an area would change
Ms is the surface wave magnitude determined by International
significantly as the pore fluid pressure is elevated to a substantial
Seismological Centre; Mw is the moment magnitude from the Harvard fraction of the lithostatic pressure. The reduced effective stress
centroid moment tensor catalogue; Mt is the tsunami magnitude [K. Abe, would substantially decrease the friction on the fault zone. In the
personal comm., 2001], except for the 1896 event of which parameters are numerical studies of the mechanical behavior of a series of
taken from Tanioka and Satake [1996] and Tanioka and Seno [2001]. asperities intervened by high pore pressure compartments, Lockner
SENO: TSUNAMI EARTHQUAKES AS TRANSIENT PHENOMENA 58 - 3

[10] Off Sanriku, northern Honshu, strong reflectors along the


plate interface, indicated by ‘‘F’’ in Figure 1, have been observed
by refraction-reflection surveys [Fujie et al., 2000] to the south of
the 1992 earthquake aftershock zone. The north-south dimension
of the reflectors is about 30 km, coincident with an area of
extremely low seismicity, which is indicated by the dashed line
in Figure 1. If this reflective zone stems from elevated fluid
pressures as Fujie et al. [2000] suggested and becomes pervasive
over the shallow portion of the plate boundary along the Japan
Trench, a tsunami earthquake, such as the 1896 event, may
eventually happen, in association with the breakage of asperities
in the deeper seismogenic zone, such as that of the 1992 event.
[11] In the Nankai Trough, great earthquakes have recurred
every 100 – 200 years. Among those great earthquakes, the 1605
Keicho earthquake is a unique tsunami earthquake, which had
small seismic intensities on land but caused disastrous tsunamis
(Figure 3b, Ishibashi [1983]). From the seismic reflection surveys,
Park et al. [2001] delineated reflections with negative polarities
beneath the Nankai accretionary prism 20 – 60 km landward of the
frontal thrust (Figures 3a, 3b), which are located deeper than the
negative polarity decollement near the frontal thrust [Moore and
Shipley, 1993]. These DSRs (Deep Strong Reflectors) are distrib-
uted seaward of the coseismic fault zone of the 1946 Nankai
earthquake [Ando, 1982] (Figure 3b). Park et al. [2001] interpreted
the DSRs as indicating elevated fluid pressures. A tsunami earth-
quake would happen when the sporadic DSRs shown in Figure 3b
become pervasive over a wider area along the trough, connected to
the negative polarity decollement in the shallow portion, and
simultaneously asperities in the deeper seismogenic zone break.
The 1605 Keicho earthquake might have been such an event. With
Figure 3. (a) A cross-section illustrating DSRs (Deep Strong the fact that usual great earthquakes such as the 1946 Nankai
Reflectors) and the decollement beneath the Nankai accretionary earthquake tend to rupture updip along the splay faults ca. 100 km
prism off Shikoku [simplified from Park et al., 2001]. The DSRs landward from the trough axis [Cummins and Kaneda, 2000;
and part of the decollement have negative seismic reflection Kuramoto et al., 2000], tsunami earthquakes in this region are
polarities which may indicate elevated pore fluid pressures. (b) characterized by the slip close to the trough axis, beyond the splay
DSRs [Park et al., 2001], coseismic slip zones of the 1944 faults, due to the transience of the frictional property in the shallow
Tonankai and 1946 Nankai earthquakes [Ando, 1982], tsunami part of the subduction boundary.
source and inundation areas accompanied with the 1605 Keicho
earthquake [Ishibashi, 1983]. The seismic intensity at Kyoto at the
time of the 1605 event was negligible, but the tsunami disaster was 5. Concluding Remarks
extensive to have killed more than two thousands of people
[Ishibashi, 1983]. [12] The transient nature of the frictional property along the
positive a b portion of the subduction boundary proposed in this
study might be tested by repeated reflection surveys over a target
area. If possible, 3-D reflection surveys, such as the ones in the
and Byerlee [1995] showed that the system can be destabilized Barbados and the Nankai Trough [Shipley et al., 1994; Kuramoto
when one of the locked asperities fails. Moreover, Saffer et al. et al., 2000] are desired. The transient nature of the frictional
[2001] showed, in the double-direct shear experiment at room property proposed in this study might also be applicable to
humidity and temperature conditions, that smectite, which would ordinary subduction zone or transform fault earthquakes. If so,
be the most abundant clay mineral in the decollement, starts to the hypothesis could be more easily tested for those events, which
have negative a b for the normal stress <30 MPa. This amount of have shorter reccurrence intervals than tsunami earthquakes.
effective normal stress may be realized with the pore pressure of
90% of the lithostatic at 10 km depth, if the tectonic stress is not
large. The frictional property in such zones thus turns into the [13] Acknowledgments. I thank John Townend and Kenji Satake for
weakly seismic regime of Boatwright and Cocco [1996]. critical review of the initial version of the manuscript, Eric Geist for useful
comments for the improvements, Toru Matsuzawa, Takashi Miyatake, and
Koichi Nakamura for discussion, and Toshihiro Igarashi, Jin-Oh Park,
4. Mechanism of Tsunami Earthquakes Yoshiko Yamanaka, and Katsuyuki Abe for providing me their thesis,
preprints or data.
[9] Considering the peculiar nature of faulting associated with
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