Dr.

Alex Liebrecht
alexander-liebrecht@gmail.com

Unit 3 Section 1: Intro to Probability

An event is any collection of results or outcomes of a procedure. We typically use a capital
letter to represent a collection of results (a set). For example, we might use A to represent a
set of events.
The sample space for a procedure consists of all possible events. That is, the sample space
consists of all outcomes that cannot be broken down any further. We typically use a script S (
S ¿ to represent the sample space.

Event and Sample Space Examples

1. Imagine you flip a coin one time and specifically record the outcome using “heads” or
“tails.”
a. List an example of an event. b. List the sample space.

2. Imagine you flip a coin one time and record the number of heads.
a. List an example of an event. b. List the sample space.

3. Imagine flipping a coin three times and recording specifically the outcome of all three flips
using “heads” or “tails” for each flip.
a. List an example of an event. b. List the sample space.

4. Imagine flipping a coin three times and recording the number of heads flipped.
a. List an example of an event. b. List the sample space.

5. Imagine an example of flipping a coin until you get heads for the first time and recording
how many flips that it took.
a. List an example of an event. b. List the sample space.

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Discrete or Continuous?
A discrete random variable has a finite number of values or countable numbers.
A continuous random variable has infinitely many values on a continuous scale.
All the numbers between 0 and 1
Examples: Tell whether the following variables are continuous or discrete.
a. The score of a basketball game
discrete
b. The height of a person
continuous (growing so reached every number between 0 and where you are now at some pt)
c. How much money is in your bank account
discrete
d. The width of a tree
continuous
e. The amount of time it takes a penny to hit the ground after falling off the Willis
Tower.

f. g.

h. i.

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The Probability Function

We discuss probability with a “probability function.” Let’s say that we are flipping a fair coin one time
and recording what happened. Let S={Heads , Tails} and let A={ Heads } . Then we use a probability
to map the long-run outcomes.

P ( A )=0.5

Notice that P ( A ) maps the event of flipping a coin to a probability space between zero and one
inclusive. We can also write this in a different way if we were discussing X where X is the number of
heads when flipping a coin one time.

P ( X=1 )=0.5

*How would you calculate the probability of a shark attack happening in the United States?

Classic Probability Calculation

Number of ways A can occur
P ( A )=
Number of Different Simple Events

Relative Frequency Approximation of Probability

Number of × X occured
P ( A )=
Number of ×Procedure was Repeated

*This is different than “odds”

The Law of Large Numbers: As the number of repetitions of a probability experiment
increases, the proportion with which a certain outcome is observed gets closer to the
probability of the outcome.

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Two Interpretations of Probability: The following information comes from

a. List the two interpretations that the “Death Probability” represents.

b. What if I were to say, “There is a 20% chance of rain tomorrow.” List two
interpretations of that probability.

The Concept of “Due” on Probability: Let’s pretend that you have lost a lot of hands at poker
in a row. Does this mean that you are “due” to do well on your next hand?
a. Let’s pretend that you are flipping a coin one time. What is the probability of getting
heads?

b. Let’s pretend that you flip the coin a second time after your first heads. What is the
probability of getting heads on your second flip after you have already gotten heads on
your first flip?

c. Let’s pretend we keep repeating this. We have successfully flipped a coin 9 times in a
row and gotten heads all 9 times. What is the probability of getting heads on the tenth
flip?

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Probability Rules!
There are two very general rules for probability:

Rule 1: A probability is a number between 0 and 1 inclusive.

0 ≤ P ( A ) ≤ 1 for all events A

Rule 2: The probability of the sample space must be 1

P ( S )=1
Examples:

Let’s look at a probability distributions. Is the following an example of a probability distribution

according to the rules above?

1.

yes- between 0 and 1, adds up to 8/8=1

2.

0.5 + 0.3 + 0.2 =1

3.

4.

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x 0 ≤ x ≤2
5. y={ }
0 otherwise

Expected Value of Random Variables

The expected value is the expected outcome of a probability distribution. The expected value
is also the mean. Think of this as a “weighted average”

E ( X )=∑ x i∗P(x i )

Examples:
Problem 1)

Problem 2) Let’s say that a home can suffer no damage, minor damage, or major damage
during a year. No damage costs a company $0. Minor damage costs the company $10,000 and
major damage costs $100,000. The probability of minor damage is 0.09 and the probability of
major damage is 0.01. Assume that no damage is the only other outcome. How much should
an insurance company charge to break even?

Problem 3) You draw a card from a deck. If you get a red card, you win nothing. If you get a
spade, you win $5. If you get a club, you win $10. If you get the Ace of Clubs, you win an extra
$20 on top of the $10 you already won for a total of $30.

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Variance of Random Variables

1. The standard deviation and variance of a probability distribution can help tell us about
the spread.

Var ( X )=∑ (x i−μ) ∗P(x i )

2

a. Calculate the expected value of the chart above.

b. Calculate the variance and standard deviation.

2.

a. Calculated the expected value of the chart above.

b. Calculate the variance and standard deviation.

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Comparison with Unit 1

Answer the following questions:

Let’s imagine a list of numbers as follows: { 0 , 1 ,2 }

a. What is the mean?

b. What is the variance?

c. What is the standard deviation?

Now imagine a possible probability distribution as shown below. Answer the following questions.

a. Is the above chart a probability distribution? Why or why not?

b. What is the mean?

c. What is the variance?

d. What is the standard deviation?

e. Notice that your answer between the top and bottom problem are different even though
the 𝑥 values are the same. What would have to be the probabilities for the mean to be the
same?

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Set Union and Intersection

1. A ∩ B “The intersection of A and B” This is the same thing as using the word AND

2. A ∪ B “The union of A and B” This is the same thing as using the word OR

Find A ∪ B and A ∩ B for the following problems.

1. Let A = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5} and let B = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10}

2. Let A = {Making 7 basketball shots when shooting 10} and let B = {Making x shots when
shooting 10 where x ≥ 7 }

3. Let A={x∨x ≤10 } and let B={ y∨ y ≥5 }

4. Let A={x∨x <3 } and let B={ y∨ y ≥7 }

4. Let A = {x | x is all odd numbers} and let B = {y | y is all even numbers}. (Reminder: An even
number is divisible by 2 --- this may be helpful for thinking about zero or negative numbers)

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Compound Events
A compound event is any event combining two or more simple events.
P ( A ∪ B )=P ( A ) + P ( B ) −P( A ∩ B)

Example: (Venn Diagram)

1. Algebra of the Equation: You can also use Algebra to manipulate the equation to write
in whatever way you want.

P ( A ∪ B )=P ( A ) + P ( B ) −P( A ∩ B)

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Example with two possibilities: Let's say that Alex and Brian go hunting. The probability that
Alex hits the target is 0.6. The probability that Brian hits the target is 0.5. The probability that
Alex and Brian hit the target is 0.3.
a. What is the probability that Alex or Brian hit the target?

b. What is the probability that ONLY Alex hits the target?

c. What is the probability that the target is NOT hit?

Another example: Let’s say that the probability someone subscribes to Netflix is 0.7 and the
probability that someone subscribes to Hulu is 0.4. The probability that someone subscribes to
Hulu or Netflix is 0.8.
a. What is the probability that someone subscribes to Netflix and Hulu?

b. What is the probability that someone subscribes to neither Netflix nor Hulu.

c. What is the probability that someone subscribes to ONLY ONE of the two services?

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 Dr. Alex Liebrecht
alexander-liebrecht@gmail.com

Another Two Probability Example: Let’s say that the probability someone owns a dog is 0.7,
the probability that someone owns a cat and a dog is 0.1, and the probability that that
someone does not own a cat nor a dog is 0.2.

a. What is the probability that someone owns ONLY a cat (with no dog)?

b. What is the probability that someone owns a cat?

*Difficult* Example with three different possibilities: Families can own multiple vehicles, one
vehicle, or no vehicles. Let’s pretend the following: The probability of not owning a vehicle is
0.05. The probability of owning a car is 0.6. The probability of owning a truck is 0.4. The
probability of owning an SUV is 0.3. The probability of owning a car and a truck is 0.2. The
probability of owning a car and an SUV is 0.1. The probability of owning a truck and an SUV is
0.1. What is the probability of owning a truck, a car, and an SUV?

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 Dr. Alex Liebrecht
alexander-liebrecht@gmail.com

4. Two events A and B are independent if the occurrence of event A in a probability experiment does
not affect the probability of event B.

P ( A ∩B )=P ( A )∗P ( B ) , provided that A∧B are independent

7. Multiplication Rule for n Independent Events: If all the events are independent.

P ( A 1 ∩ A 2 ∩ … ∩ A n )=P ( A 1 )∗P ( A2 )∗…∗P( An )

a. If you flip a fair coin three times, what is the probability of getting three heads?

d. If you roll a six-sided die and then flip a coin, what is the probability of rolling a four followed by
getting tails?

c. If the probability of the Iowa State losing to Iowa is probably around 90 percent, what is the
probability that Iowa State loses to Iowa 5 years (games) in a row?

d. If a password consists of one alphabet letter followed by one digit (0-9), what is the probability
of guessing it right on a blind guess?

e. The probability of Julie spilling a drink is 70%. If Julie pours herself three drinks in a day, what is
the probability of her not spilling a drink that day?

e. *Difficult* Let’s pretend that the probability of a cell phone having a cracked or broken screen is
40%. If you and your family own 3 cell phones, what is the probability of having at least one cell
phone with a broken screen? Try to identify what makes this question difficult? Do not try to
answer it yet.

8. The compliment of event A, denoted AC consists of all the outcomes in which event A does
not occur. P( A C )=1−P( A)

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Conditional Probability: The notation P(A|B) is read "the probability of an event A given event
B." It is the probability that the event A occurs, given that B has already occurred.
*Show the Monty Hall Problem Here
a. Let A={ January } . Let B= { January , February , March }. Find P ( A|B )

b. Let A = "rolling a prime number with two die." Let B="rolling a number less than 6 with
two die" Find P ( A|B ) .

c, Think about the opposite version of the above question. Find the probability of rolling a
number less than six with two six-sided die when given a prime number was rolled.

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4. Conditional Probability Formula

P( A ∩ B)
P ( A|B )=
P( B)
6. Conditional Probability Questions based on a chart

a. What is the probability that a randomly selected individual has an A in class, given the individual
studied 2-6 hours a week?

b. What is the probability that a randomly selected individual studies less than 2 hours a week,
given they have a B in the class.

c. What is the probability that a student does not get a B given that they study 2-6 hours a week?

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7. Tree Diagrams (Bayes Rule): Tree diagrams can be really helpful in showing sequences of
events.

a. A recent Maryland highway safety study found that 77% of all accidents the driver was
wearing a seatbelt. Accident reports indicated that 92% of those drivers escaped serious
injury (defined as hospitalization or death), but only 63% of the non-belted drivers were so
fortunate. What is the probability that a driver who was seriously injured wasn’t wearing a
seatbelt?

b. Pretend a new disease breaks out called Arctic Fire: H1N2. Imagine that H1N2 tests are
correct 90 percent of the time. If 20% of the population has H1N2, what is the probability
that a patient testing negative is truly free of H1N2?

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