D-5079

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RESEARCH ARTICLE Agricultural Science Digest, Volume Issue : ()

Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on Maize Productivity

in Trans-gangetic Plains using Info Crop Model
Baljeet Kaur, Som Pal Singh, P.K. Kingra 10.18805/ag.D-5079

ABSTRACT
Background: Climate change is a nonpareil threat to the food security of hundred millions of people who depends on agriculture for
their livelihood. A change in climate affects agricultural production as climate and agriculture are intensely interrelated global processes.
Global warming is one of such changes which is projected to have significant impacts on environment affecting agriculture. Agriculture
is the mainstay economy in trans-gangetic plains of India and maize is the third most important crop after wheat and rice. Heat stress
in maize cause several changes viz. morphological, anatomical and physiological and biochemical changes.
Methods: In this study during 2014-2018, impact of climate change on maize yield in future scenarios was simulated using the
InfoCrop model. Average maize yield from 2001-15 was collected for Punjab, Haryana and Delhi to calibrate and validate the model.
Future climatic data set from 2020 to 2050 was used in the study to analyse the trends in climatic parameters.
Result: Analysis of future data revealed increasing trends in maximum temperature and minimum temperature. Rainfall would likely
follow the erratic behaviour in Punjab, Haryana and Delhi. Increase in temperature was predicted to have negative impact on maize
yield under future climatic scenario.

Key words: Climate change, Scenario, Info Crop, Temperature, Maize.

INTRODUCTION Department of Climate Change and Agricultural Meteorology,

Climate change is an unrivaled threat to the food security of
Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana-141 001, Punjab, India.
hundred millions of people who depends on agriculture for
their livelihood. Global mean temperature would increase Corresponding Author: Baljeet Kaur, Department of Climate
by 0.3C to 1.7C, 1.1C to 2.6C, 1.4C to 3.1C and 2.6C Change and Agricultural Meteorology, Punjab Agricultural University,
Ludhiana-141 001, Punjab, India. Email: bchahal57@gmail.com
to 4.8  C under Representative Concentration Pathways
(RCP) 2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and under RCP8.5. It is How to cite this article: Kaur, B., Singh, S.P. and Kingra, P.K.
incontrovertible that hot and cold extremes over the land (2020). Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on Maize
areas would occur frequently on daily and seasonal basis Productivity in Trans-gangetic Plains using Info Crop Model.
as a result of increase in global mean temperature (IPCC Agricultural Science Digest. 10.18805/ag.D-5079
2014). India ranked 46 in Global Climate Risk Index in 2012 Submitted: 08-11-2019 Accepted: 15-10-2020 Online: 30-12-2020
but during the year 2013 series of cyclonic storms occurred
over Bay of Bengal which resulted in heavy loss both in in lower crop yields (Rötter and Höhn, 2015; Rötter et al.,
terms of agriculture and mankind (IMD 2013). A change in 2015). Heat stress in maize cause several changes viz.
climate affects agricultural production as climate and morphological, anatomical and physiological and
agriculture are intensely interrelated global processes. biochemical changes (Commuri and Jones 2001).
Global warming is one of such changes which is projected The yields of various cereals likely to be decrease under
to have significant impacts on environment affecting future scenarios (Pathak, 2003). A study therefore, has been
agriculture, including higher carbon dioxide emission, rise planned to look into the climate change, its impacts on crop
in atmospheric temperature, higher glacial run-off, changed yield in future scenarios in trans-gangetic plain region with
precipitation and the interaction of these elements (Singh the objective (i) to analyse the trends in climatic parameters
et al, 2017). Reduction in potential yield of crops is linked to under future climatic scenario and (ii) prediction of maize
negative trends in solar radiation and increasing trends in yield under future climatic scenario.
minimum temperature in Indo Gangetic Plain (Pathak 2003).
Maize production for World was 1,147 million thousand MATERIALS AND METHODS
tonnes and in India, production of maize was 21,810 Location of study
thousand tonnes (APEDA, 2016). Maize demand will double The present study was carried out at Department of Climate
in the developing countries by 2050. Temperature increases
Change and Agricultural Meteorology, Punjab Agricultural
have multiple effects on crop growth, development and yield
University, Ludhiana, Punjab during 2014-18.
depending on the crop growth stage. Higher temperatures
usually accelerate rates of crop development and this results Study area
in a shortened growing period and typically but not always The study area comprise of maize growing regions of trans-

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 Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on Maize Productivity in Trans-gangetic Plains using Info Crop Model

gangetic plains which includes Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and 5. Relative growth rate of leaf
northern Rajasthan. Punjab lies between 31.1N and 75.3E, 6. Specific leaf area
whereas Haryana lies between 29.0  N and 76.1 E. The 7. Radiation use efficiency
coordinates of Delhi are 28.7N and 77.1E. Northern parts Model calibration
of Rajasthan were not taken in present study due to non-
significant maize area and yield. The process of adjusting model parameters to the local
conditions is known as calibration. It is required for generating
Data collection genetic coefficients for new cultivars used in modeling study.
Daily weather data for the period of 2020-2025 was derived The model was calibrated using maize cultivar PMH 4 as this
from marksim weather generator (https://gismap.ciat. variety is suitable for Punjab, Haryana and Delhi.
cigar.org/MarksimGCM/) for the climatic scenario RCP8.5. Model validation
Average maize yield data (2001-2015) for calibration and
validation was collected from statistical abstracts of Punjab, The purpose of the validation is to compare simulated and
Haryana and Delhi. observed yield for year that was not used for model calibration.
The data of year 2011 to 2015 was used for validation.
Future crop yield prediction Simulation performance was evaluated by calculating different
The crop yield prediction for maize has been predicted upto statistic indices like R2, d-statand ME (model efficiency). Model
mid-century (2020 – 2050) using InfoCrop model for the performance improved as R2 and d-stat value approaches to
whole states of Punjab, Haryana and Delhi. The model was unity while model efficiency proceeds to 100.
first calibrated using maize yield data from 2001-10 and Modeling efficiency (%)
validated using data of 2010-15 before predicting the
changes in future climatic perspectives. This is defined as a mathematical measure of how well a
model simulation fits the available observations.
Model Description (o i-si)2
ME = 1-
InfoCrop model is a generic crop model which simulates (o i-o av)2
the effect of weather, soils, agronomic practices like planting, W here
nitrogen, residues and irrigation and major pests on the crop Oi and Si represent the observed and simulated values and
growth, yield etc. Oav is the observed average.

The input requirements of the model are: R2

 Site information It is the measure of goodness of fit of linear regression. It is
1. Station name a statistic used in the context of statistical models whose
2. Latitude main purpose is either the prediction of future outcomes or
3. Longitude the testing of hypotheses, on the basis of other related
4. Altitude information. The value R2 is a fraction between 0.0 and 1.0.
 Weather data:
1. Daily maximum temperature (C) RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
2. Daily minimum temperature (C) Trends in maximum temperature (  C) under future
3. Daily precipitation (mm) climatic scenario RCP8.5
4. Daily solar radiation (MJ m-2 day-1)
Climatic data was analyzed to observe the trends during
 Crop/variety
the period 2021-2050. It was observed that maximum and
1. Thermal days
minimum temperature followed significant increasing trend
2. Optimum temperature
though out the time period (Table 1-3) for whole states of
3. Maximum temperature
Punj ab, Haryana and Delhi. Maximum and minimum
4. Base temperature
temperature showed increasing trend on annual and
Table 1: Annual and seasonal trends in weather parameters in Punjab, Haryana and Delhi.
Weather Punjab‘ Haryana Delhi
Test
parameters Kharif Annual Kharif Annual Kharif Annual
Maximum Temperature ( oC) Z 7.78*** 7.89*** 7.87*** 7.89*** 7.85*** 7.89***
Sen’ slope 0.040*** 0.048*** 0.045*** 0.050*** 0.046*** 0.051***
Minimum Temperature ( oC) Z 7.89*** 7.89*** 7.89*** 7.89*** 7.87*** 7.87***
Sen’ slope 0.048*** 0.050*** 0.049*** 0.053*** 0.050*** 0.054***
Rainfall (mm) Z 0.96 0.05 0.92 1.70 1.51 1.81
Sen’ slope 0.230 -0.005 -0.015 -0.116 0.36 0.29
Z: Mann-Kendall test, Q: Sen’s slope estimator.
***Statistically significant trends at the 0.1% significance level.

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 Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on Maize Productivity in Trans-gangetic Plains using Info Crop Model

seasonal basis. In Punjab, during Kharif season, maximum In Haryana, annual maximum and minimum
and minimum temperature likely to increase by 0.040C and temperature likely to increase by 0.050 oC and 0.053C,
0.048C; respectively at p=.001. Maximum temperature respectively at p=.001. During kharif season, increase in
likely to increase by 0.048C per year and minimum maximum and minimum temperature likely to increase at
temperature at 0.050C per year on annul basis at p=.001. the rate of 0.045C and 0.049C, respectively at p=.001.
No significant trend was observed in rainfall in Punjab (Table 1). No trend in rainfall was observed. Similarly, in Delhi
maximum and minimum temperature was predicted to
Table 2: Genetic coefficients used to calibrate the InfoCrop model
increase in future at the rate of 0.046C and 0.050C per
year at during kharif season. On annual basis, maximum
for maize crop (PMH 4).
temperature likely to increase by 0.051C and minimum
Genetic Coefficients Units Maize temperature would increase by 0.054C per year. The
TTGERM  C/day 55 increase in temperature likely to significant at p=.001.
TTVG  C/day 730 Crop productivity predictions in future climate
TTGF  C/day 950 perspectives
TBASE C 10 Calibration of InfoCrop model
TOPT C 20
The InfoCrop model for maize was calibrated using the
TMAX C 40
observed yield data during 2001-2010 for Punjab, Haryana
RUE g/MJ/day 2.1
and Delhi except northern Rajasthan due to non significant
RGRL  C/day 0.008
observed yield of maize. The genetic coefficients (Table 2)
SLA dm2/mg 0.001
were derived while calibration and later on these were used
in the validation of the model. Thermal days required for
Table 3: Test for the evaluation of InfoCrop model for maize grain yield. germination, vegetative phase and grain filling used to
Region Observed Simulated R2 ME d-stat calibrate were 55, 730 and 950C/day, respectively. Base,
(q/acre) (q/acre) optimum and maximum temperature during growth period
was 10C, 20C and 40C, respectively. Radiation use
Punjab 30.2 31.8 0.84 78 0.92
efficiency was 2.1 g/MJ/day, relative growth rate of leaves
Haryana 21.6 23.8 0.79 75 0.95
was 0.008 and specific leaf area was 0.001 dm2/mg.
Delhi 19.3 18.9 0.81 80 0.81

(a) (b)

(c)
Fig 1: validation of maize yield of (a) Punjab, (b) Haryana and (c) Delhi.

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 Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on Maize Productivity in Trans-gangetic Plains using Info Crop Model

Fig 2: Trends in maize yield under future climatic scenario RCP8.5.

Validation of Info Crop model in grain yield of maize due shortening of the growing period
After calibration, the model was validated for maize yield have also been reported by Makadho (1996) and Vucetic
(2011).
during 2011 to 2015 (Fig 1). The validated yield of maize by
the model was observed to be closely fit with the observed
maize grain yield. The model was then tested to quantify CONCLUSION
the goodness of fit between observed and simulated yield It is concluded that by the end of 2050, maximum and
as model efficiency (ME), R2 and d-stat (Table 3). R2 values minimum temperature would likely to increase. However,
were 0.84, 0.79 and 0.81; ME values were 78, 75 and 80; rate of increase in minimum temperature is more than that
and d-stat values were 0.92, 0.95 and 0.81; respectively for of maximum temperature. Rainfall likely to show erratic
Punjab, Haryana and Delhi. The results showed model behavior. Further, maize grain yield would likely to decrease
under future scenarios. This decrease is mainly due to the
performance was good.
increase in temperatures that fasten maturity and hence
Prediction of maize yield under future climatic scenario decrease in yields.
RCP8.5
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