AGRICULTURE METEOROLOGY

(PART-6)
(UNIT–8)
WEATHER FORECASTING

1. INTRODUCTION
Hello viewers, today in this part of the program we are going to
discuss about weather forecasting. We will learn that what is
meaning of weather forecasting, what are the different types of
weather forecasting, what are the different tools and
techniques, which are used to understand weather forecasting.
Further, how the phenomena of weather forecasting is actually
disseminated to farmers and what are different organizations
which are involved in the process of weather forecasting?
2. WEATHER FORECASTING & ADVANTAGES OF
WEATHER FORECASTING
First it is important to know meaning of weather forecasting.
Forecasting means prediction of a phenomena in advance while
weather forecasting means predication of anticipated occurrence
of different phenomena of weather. So weather forecasting is a
dominant factor determining the success or failure of agriculture
enterprises. This is because farmers have no control over the
natural forces. The process of weather forecasting is very
important for the farmers as well as for other users, because
there are so many kind of losses which can be reduced if farmers
or other users use the weather forecasting for the particular and
they can minimize the losses.
It is estimated that about 10 to 50% of the total crop losses can
be avoided through improved weather forecast and it also
provides guidelines for the long range seasonal planning and
selection of crops most suited to the anticipated climatic
conditions.
Now it is important to know that what are the advantages of
weather forecasting. By forecasting of anticipated heavy rains
the irrigation from well can be avoided by which we can save
electricity the harvesting could be advanced if the crop is in
maturity stage. Threshing of the harvested produce could be
done before rains by which crop losses can be avoided. The losses
in seed, fertilizer, chemicals, diesel, labour and time can be
avoided by not sowing the crops, if anticipated weather is not
suitable for the operation. Further, the saving of fertilizer by
avoiding losses through leaching, gaseous loss and fixation loss
could be achieved if the farmers are informed well in time that
the coming weather may not be suitable for fertilizer
application. A similar wastage can be minimized in the use of
plant protection chemicals. In this way we can see that there are
numerous advantages of the weather forecasting. It is helpful
and it results in a very good help to the framers.
3. TYPES OF WEATHER FORECASTING
Now we will know about the types of weather forecasting based
on time or duration. Weather forecast for agriculture may be
divided into four groups:-
Now casting i.e. few hours to one day, .Short range forecast
i.e.24 hours to less than 3 days; Medium range forecast i.e. for 3-
10 days, Long range forecast it is more than 10 days, a month
and for a season. So we can see that based on duration the
forecast is of four types and in common the three types of
forecast i.e. short, medium and long range forecasts are used.
Short range forecasting; It is a type of forecast and warning of
weather elements hazardous to agriculture, it is valid for 36
hours and an outlook for the subsequent two days. In case of
short range forecast; the forecasting is done for the cloud
spread, rainfall distribution, heavy rainfall warnings, maximum
and minimum temperatures, heat and cold waves, low pressure
areas, cyclone warning, hail & thunderstorm, dust storm, snow,
frost and likelihood of maximum wind speed. The short range
forecasting is useful for weather based agricultural operations,
irrigation engineers, mariners and aviation engineers. Thus here
we can see that in case of short range forecasting, the duration
is less than three days and it is very important for day to day
Agriculture operations. It is not only important for the farmers or
people who are in agriculture but it is important for the
engineers as well as the mariners.
The next is Medium Range Forecasting’s. It is a forecast and
warning of weather elements hazardous to agriculture and is
valid for 3 to 10 days. The forecast includes cloud amount,
rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, average wind
speed and wind direction. The medium range weather forecast is
an objective and challenging one to weather scientists as it
involves enormous numerical computations with expertise in
weather science. So medium range weather forecasting is very
important with respect to the agriculture because duration is 3
to 10 days and it is very important with respect to the
agricultural operations.
The next is the Long-Range Forecasting’s. It is a forecast for
more than 10 days, a month and for a season. The India
Meteorological Department started issuing the long range
forecasting since 1988 onwards on total monsoon rainfall of the
country. It is useful for choosing cropping pattern. So long range
forecast is very important as you know that the monsoonal
rainfall is very important for our country and the Indian
meteorological department forecast the monsoonal rainfall in
advance so that we can prepare for the different activities like
arrangement for fertilizers, arrangement of the seed and we can
have a long term planning.
4. MEASURED ELEMENTS FOR WEATHER
FORECASTING
Now we will discuss the different elements which are measured
in the weather forecasting. There are about eight elements i.e.
temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity,
precipitation, evaporation, duration of sunshine and cloud
amount. These elements are expressed in different units.
Temperature is expressed in degree centigrade; wind speed in
km/hr. or the meters per second; wind direction in degrees in
clock wise form 0 to 360 degree; relative humidity in percentage,
precipitation in mm, evaporation in mm; duration of sunshine in
hours and cloud in Octas. So these are the eight elements which
are generally included into the weather forecasting issued by the
India Meteorological Department.
Now we will know about essentials for the weather forecasting.
To understand weather forecasting, it is necessary to know basic
elements of weather forecasting. This means what are different
components and what are the different steps which are used in
the weather forecasting?
The essential features for weather forecasting are: Proper
recording of data, careful study of synoptic charts, search for
similar situation from the historical data, preparation of the
weather condition charts as may be possible in next 24 hours and
drawing quick, correct and definite conclusions regarding future
weather phenomenon.
Now we will learn about what are steps which are required to
issue for forecast and finally the forecast reaches to the farmers.
The steps for taking data and weather forecast are- For
meteorological purposes, satellite takes pictures of the earth and
atmosphere in the visible and infrared spectra and transmits
them towards the earth; then these infrared images make it
possible to determine the temperature of earth’s surface and
cloud. The pictures in the visible spectrum show cloud formation
and movement of other parameters. The weather forecasting can
be made more accurate by superimposing these pictures and
making the synoptic charts and cloud pictures with respect to the
occurrence of rainfall, storm, cold, and hot waves and several
other weather variables.

5. TOOLS OF WEATHER FORECASTING

Now we will discuss about the tools of weather forecasting which
indicate about the data recording either through the satellite or
from the other means. Weather forecasting requires several basic
inputs. It needs a network of meteorological stations and the
collection of the meteorological data for which following tools
are used:-
1) Pilot-balloons
2) Radio sonde
3) Radar and satellites
4) Synoptic chart
5) Crop weather calendar
6) Crop weather diagram
Pilot-balloons: A small balloon is inflated with a gas
(hydrogen/helium) lighter than air and released for measurement
of wind direction and speed at different heights in the
atmosphere using a theodolite. The theodolite is an optical
telescope which measures horizontal and vertical angles of the
ascending balloons at known intervals of the time. So light pailot
balloons there are other tools also which are assigned to the
atmosphere where it records the different variable of the
weather.
Radio sonde: The radio sonde is a device with sensitive sensors
which transmit observations by radio signals to a ground receiver
as the balloon ascends. It is carried aloft by means of a free
balloon. The instrument measures temperature, humidity and
pressure at various levels of the atmosphere through which it
passes.
Radar and satellites: We all know that Indian satellite is
launched at an interval of few years and signals of these
satellites are decoded by the IMD and these recorded data are
used for making forecast. The radar and satellites are the space
tools to sense meteorological parameters using remote sensing
techniques. Remote sensing techniques are of two different types
that are active and passive. The IMD has been operating radar
systems in the East and West coasts of the country. They are also
used for detecting cloud movement and intense precipitation.
The Indian satellite i.e. INSAT is a domestic satellite system used
in meteorology and its information is used in short range and
medium range weather forecasting. So we can see that the Indian
satellite is the most important tool which is being used for the
purpose of the weather forecasting.
Synoptic chart: It is a chart or map on which distribution of
selected meteorological elements, over a large area, at a
specified instant of time is represented. Synoptic charts display
the weather conditions at a specified time over a large
geographical area. The surface synoptic charts plotted for
different synoptic hours (03,06,09,12,15,18,21 UTC) depict the
distribution of pressure, temperature, dew point, clouds, winds,
present and past weather.
Crop weather calendar are also used as a tool for the weather
forecasting. The crop weather calendar consists of three parts
i.e. weather warnings, crop husbandry and normal weather
requirements. The normal monthly rainfall and number of rainy
days are depicted in middle of the calendar with weather
requirements and upper most portion of the calendar indicates
the nature of the weather warnings to be issued in different crop
periods. These crop weather calendars help the weather
forecaster to see at a glance the type of weather warnings are to
be issued for a particular district in a given weather situation
during a particular phase of the crop. They help in improving
quality of agro-advisory based on medium range weather
forecasting.
Crop weather diagram are also used. There is little difference
between crop weather calendar and crop weather diagram or
chart. The main difference between the crop weather diagram
and crop weather calendar is that the former indicates the
current state of information on crops and weather. While the
later indicates the mean state of information on crops and
weather including forewarnings and the periods during which
they are to be issued. The crop weather diagram can be a tool to
assess the crop condition and its yield in relation to weather
while the crop weather calendar is a tool to a weather forecaster
for providing efficient weather service.
6. METHODS OF WEATHER FORECASTING
In this way we have known that there are different tools and the
knowledge of these tools is essential to learn the process of
weather forecasting.
Now we will discuss different methods of weather forecasting:
The techniques in use for weather forecasting can be divided into
three broad categories:-
1. Conventional or Synoptic
2. Statistical
3. Numerical weather prediction
These are the techniques or methods which are used for the
calculation of the prediction part.
Synoptic method: In synoptic method, the state of atmosphere
over an area is known at an instant through a set of
meteorological variables, measured simultaneously at various
locations. These observations are called synoptic. Using the
observations recorded simultaneously, surface and upper air
charts are prepared which give the present state of atmosphere.
The inferences on expected movement of weather systems are
drawn using the past analogous situation and present charts and
experience of the expert. It is used for the short range forecast.
In brief the synoptic method uses the different data which are
being observed form the satellite and based on this data a chart
is prepared. The values of these chart are compared with the
past experience or analogues values of the history and based on
these value prediction is given.
Statistical methods: The statistical methods are used mostly in
long range climatic forecasts. Techniques based on multiple
regressions and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average
(ARIMA) models are used for establishing relationship between
different weather elements and resulting climate. These models
are based on 16 global-land-ocean-atmospheric variables. The
technique is used for predicting total monsoon rainfall of the
country by IMD, New Delhi. This statistical method is the
important method and this method uses the different types of
regration models and the important one is the ARIMA model
which is used by the IMD the forecasting the monsoonal rainfall.
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Method: In this
technique, the behavior of atmosphere is represented by a set of
equations based on physical laws governing air movement, air
pressure and other information. The motion of atmosphere is
primarily governed by distribution of radiation, which is uneven
across land and ocean surfaces. Later, air motions are driven by
several other forces, coriolis force (due to earth’s rotation),
pressure gradient force (due to difference in pressure at two
points), gravitational force (earth pulls air always downward) and
frictional forces which are acting very near to the surface of the
earth.
We can say that Numerical Prediction Method is very important
and it is based totally on the laws of the physics. Different
variables move according to the certain laws of the physics. In
this method, a correlation is set among all these variables
through laws of the physics. All the above forces can be
expressed in terms of differential equations based on certain
laws of physics and in an integrated form of these equations is
known as atmospheric models, which explain the evolution of
atmosphere from a given state to some future state. This
technique is found suitable for medium range forecasting.
 7. WEATHER SERVICE TO AGRICULTURE
Now we will discuss that how weather forecasting is being issued
and how it is being sent to the farmers. For weather service to
Agriculture, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune : was
established in 1932. It is a nodal agency at the national level for
forecasting. It works to minimize the impact of adverse weather
on crops and to make use of favorable weather.
India Meteorological Department started issuing Farmers’
Weather Bulletins (FWBs) on a regular basis since 1945. Later it
was intrusted to Regional Meteorological Centers (New Delhi,
Bombay, Calcutta, Madras and Nagpur). In due course,
meteorological centers at State headquarters started to issue
farmers weather bulletin. So farmers weather bulletin are one of
the means of spreading or disseminating weather forecasts to the
farmers and this work is being done by the India Meteorological
Department.
With the change of the time, there have been certain changes in
process of reaching of the weather forecasts to the farmers. All
India Radio started to broadcast the Farmers’ Weather Bulletins
every evening in regional languages to reach the most remote
corner of the country. The Agro-meteorological Advisory Services
based on the medium range weather forecasting i.e. 3 to 10 days
has been made operational by the National Center for Medium
Range Weather Forecasting since 1988. The concept of the
Integrated Agro-Meteorological Advisory Service i.e. IAAS was
started since April, 2007 and its name has been changed to
Gramin Krishi Mausam Seva since 2013. Though IMD is responsible
for issuing the forecast but there are regional headquarters and
Agro Meteorological Field Units (AMFUs) at the district level
which finally carry the forecast to the farmers. At District level,
IMD started issuing quantitative district level (612 districts)
weather forecast up to 5 days from 1st June, 2008. Forecast for
rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed and
direction, relative humidity and cloudiness are issued. The
products such developed are disseminated to 130 Agro met Field
Units (AMFUs) in the country which prepare and publish the AAS
bulletins at districts level for communicating agro met advisory
to the farmers. It is to note that agro metrological field units at
district level are responsible for dissemination of weather
forecast to the farmers and this is being done in a networking
mode through the AMFUs, regional weather station, regional
centers and IMD at national level.
8. SUMMARY
Hello viewers, in this part of the program, we have discussed
about meaning of the weather forecasting. We have learnt about
different types of forecasting and we understood about short,
medium and long range forecasting. We learnt about different
types of the tools which are used for collecting the data as well
as the different techniques which are used to calculate
prediction of weather forecast. There are different organizations
at national, state and district level which are involved in the
issuing the weather forecast and finally these forecast are
reaching to farmers which help to farmers in minimization of the
losses and in the timely action on so many activities at the farm
level.
Thank you and I hope that you might have enjoyed the lecture.
Thank you.