Macro Economic Seminar Paper
Macro Economic Seminar Paper
Macro Economic Seminar Paper
A seminar paper
By
Submitted to
Saraswati Multiple Campus
BBA Program
Kathmandu
Declaration
I hereby declare that seminar paper entitled TREND AND STRUCTURE OF GOVERNMENT
SPENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NEPAL submitted to the BBA program,
Saraswati Multiple Campus, Kathmandu is an original place of work under the supervision of
Mr./Ms. Jamuna Shrestha ,faculty member, Saraswati Multiple Campus, Kathmandu, and is
submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for degree of BBA second semester. This
seminar paper has not been submitted to any other collage for the award of any degree.
Signature
Neema Dolma Tamang
Date:
3
Supervisor’s Recommendation
The seminar paper entitled submitted by Neema Dolma Tamang of BBA second semester,
section B, is prepared under TREND AND STRUCTURE OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING
AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NEPAL my supervision as the procedure and format
requirement laid by Faculty of Management, Office of the Dean, Tribhuvan University, as partial
fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of BBA second semester, Macro Economics for
Business. I, therefore, recommend the seminar paper for final evaluation.
Signature
Name of supervisor: Jamuna Shrestha
Date:
4
Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................5
Background..............................................................................................................................5
Purposes of Government Spending..........................................................................................8
Objectives of the study.............................................................................................................9
Methods of the study................................................................................................................9
Research Design.....................................................................................................................10
Nature and Source of Data.....................................................................................................10
Limitation of the study...........................................................................................................10
DISCRIPTION AND ANALYSIS................................................................................................11
Review of Literature...............................................................................................................11
Data presentation....................................................................................................................12
Analysis of Result..................................................................................................................13
Finding:......................................................................................................................................14
CONCLUSION..............................................................................................................................15
Summary................................................................................................................................15
Conclusion:.............................................................................................................................16
References......................................................................................................................................18
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INTRODUCTION
Background
Nepal is Landlocked, lacking substantial resources for economic development, situated between
two large economy between India and China and hampered by an inadequate transportation
network. Nepal is one of the least developed nations in the world. The economy is heavily
dependent on imports of basic materials and on foreign markets for its forest and agricultural
products. Nepal imports essential commodities, such as fuel, construction materials, fertilizers,
metals, and most consumer goods, and exports such products as rice, jute, timber, and textiles.
Nepal is trying to achieve economic growth in every economy year. To generate per capita
income and increase GDP Nepal investing in many tourism sector, government sector and
services sector. One of the most important purposes of government spending policy in a
developing country is to ensure stable and reasonable economic growth. So that most of the
government programs have tried to fostering long-term, reasonable economic progress. Public
spending accelerates both physical and human capital over time. In the short term, appropriate
public spending on health, manufacturing, transportation, human capital, and communication all
could boost up economic growth (Balaj & Lani2017). Therefore, the effect of public expenditure
might be a helpful for evaluating government spending efficiency and the contribution of
government to economic growth. The attainment of quick and justifiable growth with
maintaining price level constant is the primary macroeconomic goal of almost all developing
countries. Therefore, ultimate goal of macroeconomic policy is to improve the material well-
being of the community. Consequently, greater economic prosperity follows the achievement of
economic growth. Economic growth of the country rises prosperity as well as living standards of
the people because without any pressure people are able to fulfil their needs and desires (higher
levels of human pleasure and betterment are objectively connected to increased prosperity).
During the period of economies stagnate; states are incapable to deliver social welfare for
peoples due to slow pace of economic growth. Therefore, government expenditure is the one of
the major tools which rise the economic growth as well as social welfare by avoiding economic
stagnate. Over the last few decades, government expenditure patterns in emerging countries have
shifted considerably. As a result, in countries around the world, there has been a lot of discussion
over the role and scope of government intervention in the macroeconomic outlook. As a result,
governments use a variety of mechanisms to try to encourage economic growth. Historically,
public spending has been a part of fiscal policy, which is a tool of government to influence
economic growth. Because of its influence on enlightening living standards, state benefits, and
employment levels, economic growth is considered as a goal that most governments strive to
achieve. As a result, it is critical to comprehend the decisive elements that can lead to economic
progress. In economic theory, government spending is one of the most essential elements.
However, the current global economic crisis has resulted in government intervention. It is critical
to do research in order to identify whether or not government spending is a deciding factor in
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economic growth. Tax revenue, foreign aid, and rising public goods demand (roads,
communication, power, education, and health) have expanded public expenditure in Nepal and it
is also required for both internal and external security of the people. Therefore, government
expenditures (both capital and recurring) have been increasing in recent years, i.e., government
spending climbed from Rs 23549.8 million in 1990/91 to Rs 1191622 million in in aggregate of
federal, provincial and local level expenditure in 2019/20 (Economic survey, 2020/21). For
example, total recurring expenditure in the government increased from Rs. 7570.3 million in
1990/91 to Rs. 667462 million in 2019/20. In addition, total government capital expenditures
raised up from Rs. 15979.5 million in 1990/91 to Rs. 405556 million in 2019/20 (Economic
survey, 2020/21). Furthermore, between the study periods of fiscal years 1990/91 and 2020/21,
the various components of capital spending like that of economic service, social service, defense,
agricultural, transportation and communication, education and health) were indicating a rising
trend. Unfortunately, increased government spending has not translated into substantial growth
and development, and Nepal remains one of the world's poorest countries. In 2019/20, the GDP
growth rate was 1.4 percent, while the current year's growth rate is expected to be about 8
percent. In comparison to the previous decade, the current fiscal year's growth rate has remained
modest. Over the last decade, Nepal's economicgrowth was not seemed to be satisfactory.
Although growth rates of above 4.0 percent were achieved in fiscal years 2007/08 and 2013/14,
growth rates in other fiscal years were around 1 to 4 percent. At base prices, the country's
economic growth rate over the last decade was only 4.5 percent (Economic survey, 2020/21).
Furthermore, many Nepalese people (more than 17 percent) were poor and their earning was less
than $2 a day. In addition, deteriorating infrastructure (particularly transportation and energy
supply) has resulted in the collapse of several industries, as well as a significant degree of
unemployment. Furthermore, macroeconomic indices such as the balance of payments, export,
inflation rate, exchange rate, and national savings show that Nepal has struggled in recent years.
The above-mentioned concerns shed light on Nepal's current economic position. As a result, the
aim of this research is to explain the true impact of community outlay on the Nepalese economy.
Fiscal policy, at least in developing nations, plays a critical role in promoting socioeconomic
activities (Jones, 1995; Mehrotra & Peltonen, 2005). Despite policy efforts to achieve elevated
and justifiable GDP growth, the Nepalese economy has historically been stuck in a low growth
trap. In terms of volume, public spending increased from 9.1 percent in fiscal year 1974/75 to
19.6 percent in fiscal year 1990/91 to 21.6 percent in fiscal year 2010/11 and 3.1 percent increase
in fiscal year 2019/20, while average annual GDP growth at constant prices stayed at 4.5 percent
(Economic survey, 2020/21). This condition has raised fundamental doubts about whether
government spending can assist promote economic growth or not. It's also crucial to examine the
degree of trade-off between fiscal stability and rapid economic growth, as the two are unlikely to
be achieved simultaneously. In the context of Nepal, these concerns are largely unexplored,
whereas theoretical literature suggests equivocal links between public spending and economic
growth. In this connection, it is necessary to explore the effects of public expenditure on
economic growth of Nepal during the post-liberalization period. After the great depression of
1930s, economists came on the conclusion that government expenditure is necessary in the
7
economy. J. M. Keynes pointed out that the fundamental cause of depression was the lack of
spending. The decision to save in the household sector cannot lead to the decision to invest. And
the government had to take step up its expenditure in order to “prime to pump” of the economy.
The modern economists have given more emphasis on public expenditure (Khanal, 1988).
Government spending refers to money spent by the public sector on the acquisition of goods and
provision of services such as education, healthcare, social protection, and defense. Fiscal policy
that increases in government spending is typically called expansionary or “loose”. By contrast,
Fiscal policy is often considered contractionary or “tight” if it reduces demand via lower
spending.Government spending or expenditure includes all government consumption,
investment, and transfer payments. In national income accounting, the acquisition by
governments of goods and services for current use, to directly satisfy the individual or collective
needs of the community, is classed as government final consumption expenditure. Government
acquisition of goods and services intended to create future benefits, such as infrastructure
investment or research spending, is classed as government investment (government gross capital
formation). These two types of government spending, on final consumption and on gross capital
formation, together constitute one of the major components of gross domestic product.
Government spending is a part of Fiscal Policy that suggests when to use contractionary fiscal
policy or Expansionary policy. Government spending can be financed by government
borrowing, taxes, custom duties, the sale or lease of natural resources, and various fees like
national park entry fees or licensing fees. When Governments choose to borrow money, they
have to pay interest on the money borrowed. Changes in government spending is a major
component of fiscal policy used to stabilize the macroeconomic business cycle.
Government spending is needed for supply goods and services that the private sector would fail
to do, such as public goods including defense, road and bridges, merit goods such as hospital and
school, and welfare payments and benefits, including unemployment and disability benefits.
Government spending achieves supply side improvement in the macro economy. Such as
spending on education and training to improve labor productivity. It reduces the negative effect
extern abilities such as pollution controls to subsidizes industries which may need financial
support, and which is not available from the private sector. For example, transport infrastructure
projects are unlikely to attract private finance, unless the public sector provides some of the high
finance. Government spending is also needed for inject extra spending into the macro economy,
to help achieve increases in aggregate demand and economic activity. Such stimulus is part of
discretionary fiscal policy. Local government is extremely important in term of the
administration of spending.
Government revenue or national revenue is money received by a government from taxes and non
tax sources to enable it to undertake public expenditure. Government revenue as well
as government spending are components of the government budget and important tools of the
government's fiscal policy. The collection of revenue is the most basic task of a government, as
revenue is necessary for the operation of government, provision of the common good (through
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the social contract in order to fulfill the public interest) and enforcement of its laws; this
necessity of revenue was a major factor in the development of the modern bureaucratic state.
As the government spending is a part of fiscal policy some of the reasons why the government
spending is needed are:
Higher government spending can lead to improved public services like health, education and
transport. These are important for increasing the quality of life and economic well being
Some types of government spending, can help to overcome market failure. For
example,education can help increase labour productivity and reduce structural unemployment; if
the education spending is well targeted it can help to increase the long run trend rate of
growth.However, not all government spending is guaranteed to actually increase government
spending, it may be subject to government failure an Increased government Spending without
higher taxes is likely to increase AD. It will cause a budget deficit, however, the increased
Government spending is an injection of spending to the economy and could help to increase the
rate of economic growth. Note, some monetarists argue increased government spending will just
cause crowding out, and therefore it will not increase AD.
A significant % of government spending is spent on social security. This includes benefits, such
as; unemployment benefit, income support, child benefit and housing benefit. The majority of
these benefits are means tested; this means they are targeted to those on low incomes. The aim is
to reduce relative poverty and inequality
Public spending enables governments to produce goods and services or purchase goods and
services that are needed to fulfill the government’s social and economic objectives. Over the
years, we’ve seen significant changes in the role and size of governments around the world.
Public spending increased remarkably in the 20 th century, when governments all over the world
started spending more funds on education, healthcare, and social protection. At present, the
governments of developed countries spend more as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) than the governments of developing countries.
Also, governments around the world rely upon the private sector to produce and manage a
country’s goods and services and utilize public-private partnerships to finance, design, build, and
operate infrastructure projects.
In the 2005-10 period alone, the total value of public-private partnerships, designed to increase
the spending on public infrastructure projects in low and middle-income countries, more than
doubled.
Purposes of Government Spending
To supply goods and services that are not supplied by the private sector, such as defense,
roads, and bridges; merit goods such as hospitals and schools, and welfare payments and
benefits including unemployment and disability benefits.
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Keynesians believe that, because prices are somewhat rigid, fluctuations in any component of
spending consumption, investment, or government expenditures cause output to change. If
government spending increases, for example, and all other spending components remain
constant, then output will increase.
Nepal spent over Rs56 billion in health care, social safety and welfare and economic recovery to
address the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic between March 2020 and July 2021, a
governmentreportsays.
Of the Rs90.69 billion allocated for the health sector for the fiscal year 2020-21, the government
spent nearly half—Rs42.53 billion—to combat Covid-19 and address its impact on people’s
livelihoods and the economy.
In the fiscal year 2019-20, the government spent Rs13.14 billion to control the pandemic and its
impact, according to the Third Semi-Annual Progress Report of the Covid-19 Active Response
and Expenditure Support (CARES) programme of the Nepal government
Research Design
The role of public expenditure on Nepal's economic growth was investigated using a causal
comparative study approach in this work. The analysis employed Nepalese data from the
fiscal years 1990/91 through 2019/20 with twenty-nine observations. The role of government
expenditure on Nepal's GDP was investigated using regression models in this study.
Agriculture, transportation and communication, education, and health are the components of
government expenditure used in this study. The data was collected and subjected to robust
time series property tests before being analysed using a regression mode
Review of Literature
Various studies (Landau, 1983; Ram, 1986; United Nations, 1996 & Abdullah, 2000) have
analysed the role of public expenditure on GDP growth by employing econometric time-
series methodologies. These studies found the significant positive role of public expenditure
on economic growth and development. For Israel, Egypt, and Syria, Abu-Bader et al. (2003)
explored the role of public expenditure by using a variance decomposition and multivariate
co-integration method. The findings showed the existence of bidirectional and long-term
positive relationship 4 5 Humanities and Social Sciences Journal, Volume 13, Number 2,
2022 between explained and explanatory variables and military spending was found to have a
negative impact on three nations, but government expenditures aimed at promoting civil
society was positively contribute to economic growth in Israel and Egypt. Vamvoukas and
Loizides (2005) used a time-series data set of macroeconomic variables and the method of
causality test to analyze the impact of public spending on economic growth in four nations
(Greece, the United Kingdom, and Ireland). Government expenditure Granger causes
economic growth in the entire sample nations included in the research, at least in the short
term, and this is true in both the long-run and short-run periods for Ireland and the United
Kingdom. Furthermore, when inflation is added into the study's projected model, economic
growth was found to be Granger-cause public expenditure in Greece and the United
Kingdom. Between 1997 and 2005, Owoye and Olugbenga (2007) used the regression
approach to assess the contribution of government spending to economic development in 30
OECD countries. The findings highlighted the long-run link between public expenditure and
GDP growth for each of the 30 OECD countries evaluated. Furthermore, this research
indicated a unidirectional relationship between government expenditure and growth for 16 of
the selected nations, although the results were inconsistent for 10 of the countries
investigated. Cooray (2009) used cross-sectional research of 71 nations to examine the
relationship between the level of government expenditure and the quality of government
services and economic growth. This study discovered a reasonable likelihood of
improvement in government service quality and economic growth as a result of changes in
government spending volume. Through the use of the three-stage least squares (3SLS)
technique, Somoye and Onakoya (2013) evaluated the impact of government capital
expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria. The study found that public capital spending
boosts Nigeria's economic growth. Furthermore, this research shows that government capital
spending directly encourages oil and infrastructure growth. Furthermore, the report argues
that the government should make privatization a priority in its economic policies. Rai (2014)
12
looked at how government spending affects economic growth. The data in this study was
analysed using the ordinary least square approach. According to the findings, government
spending has a major impact on the gross domestic product. National income is strongly
affected by government expenditure. Balaj and Lani (2017) used regression analysis to
examine the impact of public expenditure on economic growth in Kosovo by covering 16
years of 2000-2016. 5 Humanities and Social Sciences Journal, Volume 13, Number 2, 2022
Researcher found the indirect effects of public expenditure on growth by employing various
explanatory variables (protection, education, health, social protection, culture and religion,
housing and communities, and environmental protection), but it stimulated the growth
process. Ahuja and Pandit (2020) examined the role of government expenditure on economic
growth based on panel data covering 59 countries of 1990-2019 based on Granger causality
test. This study has revealed that public expenditure fostering the economic growth but, the
relationship was unidirectional. The main takeaway from the current literature so far is that
government spending does, in fact, contribute favourably to improving economic
performance in a number of nations in varied ways. As a result, a basic point that any
researcher considering the literature covered thus, far should consider is whether Nepal's
economic growth is necessarily boosted by increasing government spending. This is an issue
that needs to be looked at more.
Data presentation
This chapter is related to the presentation of time series of government spending from the period
of 2010/11 to 2020/21. The data is present on volume of government spending and its growth
during the study period and also illustrates the contribution of revenue.
According to the record of the Financial Comptroller General Office published on July 17, 2022,
the expenditure of the federal government in 2021/22 stood at Rs.1296.24 billion. Out of this,
recurrent expenditure is Rs.961.47 billion, capital expenditure is Rs.216.37 billion, and financial
management expenditure is Rs.118.40 billion. In 2021/22, revenue collection stood at
Rs.1067.96 billion. 19. In 2021/22, the government of Nepal (GoN) mobilized Rs.231.30 billion
in domestic debt, which is 4.8 percent of GDP. The GoN repaid the principal amount of Rs.47.33
billion in 2021/22 as such net domestic debt mobilization of the government stood at Rs.183.97
billion. 20. As of mid-July 2022, the outstanding domestic debt of the GoN increased by 22.9
percent and reached Rs.984.28 billion compared to Rs.800.32 billion in mid-July 2021.
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Table1
Trend of Government Spending
(in Rs.10 million)
Fiscal Year Government Expenditure Growth of GE at
%
2010/11 24574.07 -
2011/12 28537.14 20.0
2012/13 34698.91 18.09
2013/14 39688 19.80
2014/15 51482 27.90
2015/16 36821.2 10.21
2016/17 32985.6 9.72
2017/18 41082.11 10.20
2018/19 43766.46 10.84
2019/20 47970.79 15.30
2020/21 50197.52 17.23
Source: Ministry of Finance/Financial Comptroller Generation Office,2021
Analysis of Result
Regression analysis models are utilized in this study to explain the relationship between
components of public expenditure and their impact on Nepal's GDP growth.
The above table shows the growth rate of government expenditure during the study period. The
average growth rate of government expenditure is 10.21 percent during the study period. The
highest growth of government expendiure is 27.90 percent at fiscal year2014/15and lowest
growth rate is 9.72 at the fiscal year 2016/17. Thus the table shows that growth rate of
government expenditure between the study period.
14
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Finding:
The study that government expenditure of Nepal was continuously increases. The average rate of
growth was only 10.21percent,Nepalese government expenditure is on infra-structure,
improvement of education quality, and agriculture for the higher consumption rate to decrease
unemployment.
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CONCLUSION
Summary
Fiscal policy is the set of policies that relate to federal government spending, taxation, and
borrowing. In recent decades, the level of federal government spending and taxes, expressed as a
share of GDP, has not changed much, typically fluctuating between about 18% to 22% of GDP.
However, the level of state spending and taxes, as a share of GDP, has risen from about 12–13%
to about 20% of GDP over the last four decades. The four main areas of federal spending are
national defense, Social Security, healthcare, and interest payments, which together account for
about 70% of all federal spending. When a government spends more than it collects in taxes, it is
said to have a budget deficit. When a government collects more in taxes than it spends, it is said
to have a budget surplus. If government spending and taxes are equal, it is said to have a
balanced budget. The sum of all past deficits and surpluses make up the government debt.
government spending in excess of government revenues can play a positive role in the long run
even if productive capacity is fully utilized. Structural unemployment persists even in boom
times, as indicated by the substantial number of people in the Nepal today who are
underemployed or out of the work force . Therefore, a significant portion of the present and
predicted budget surpluses should be spent on large-scale public investment projects rather than
"saved," that is, rather than retiring government debt . Such projects could contribute to creating
new jobs, reducing income disparities, and raising the productivity of the private sector. In the
current period of global economic crisis characterized by overcapacity expansionary fiscal and
monetary policies are required to maintain aggregate demand growth. In the event of an
economic slowdown in the short to medium run, spending limits will have deleterious economic
and social consequences. At a time when demand would need to be injected into the economy,
such limits would retard cyclical growth. Further, cutbacks in the social safety net would
dramatically increase social costs once unemployment rises in an economic downturn.
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Conclusion:
This paper shows that there are favorable correlations between government spending and
economic growth. The impact of government spending on economic growth as a whole is
statistically significant. The Keynesian theory stated that active government of notion engage in
the economy through numerous policy tools is supported by this study. This article also adds to
the growing body of data showing government spending affects GDP growth and has a major
impact on it. The result of this study is consistent with GDP growth is positive function
community expenditure (Rai, 2014; Balaj & Lani, 2017; Ahuja & Pandit, 2020). This study is
not covered the alternative costs appear in the society to measure loss of social benefits to apply
the policy by the government and planners. This is the potential area of further research for
potential researcher.
Government spending is a function of Fical Policy and Monetary Policy. It is often consider as a
part of Fisal Policy as it is related with government. Government spending is also known as
government expenditure. Government spending shows the areas that the government is rapidly
making expenses under many things for the better achievement of economy growth. An increases
in government expenditure or a decrease in the tax rate, stimulates spending, output and
employment. However, once full employment has been achieved, the simulative effect of the
government becomes inflationary. In response to the financial slowdown and its impact on the
economy, the government plays a key role by increasing its spending in order to boost economic
growth. With so much spending going in this area, it becomes important for the policy-makers to
review whether the spends made by the government is actually promoting economic growth or
not.
The understanding of government spending is not restricted to cost-benefit analysis. John Keynes
in 1930’s stated that government spending boosts growth by injecting purchasing power in the
economy. Keynes also believed that the government has the power to improve the situation of
economic downturn through borrowing money. The government can borrow money from the
private sector and return the same through different spending programs. This mechanism did not
necessarily mean that government should be big. Even The Keynesian theory suggested that
government spending program is just to provide a short-term boost to help overcome a recession
or depression like- situation in the economy. They even suggested that policymakers should be
ready to reduce government spending once the economy is recovered so as to prevent inflation,
which they believed would result from too much economic growth. As well Fiscal deficit if kept
in a check is not bad. The government in such a scenario can play the role of creating assets in
the economy. These assets in the economy will benefit in the long term. However, if the deficit
is out of control it can pose a problem for the economy. Our Indian economy is mostly in deficit
and in some years it has become uncomfortably high. There is a high possibility that the rise in
taxes will negate the impact of rising government spending which would leave Aggregate
Demand (AD) unchanged. However, it is possible that increased spending and rise in tax could
lead to an increase in GDP. In a recession, consumers may reduce spending leading to an
increase in private sector saving. Therefore a rise in taxes may not reduce spending as much as
usual. The increased government spending may create a multiplier effect. If the government
spending causes the unemployed to gain jobs then they will have more income to spend leading
17
to a further increase in aggregate demand. In these situations of spare capacity in the economy,
the government spending may cause a bigger final increase in GDP than the initial injection.
However, if the economy is at full capacity, the increase in government spending would tend to
crow increasing government spending through higher taxes would lead to a more inefficient
allocation of resources as governments tend to be less effective in spending money.
18
References
Abu-Badar, S. &.-q. (2003). Governmet expenditure, military spending and economic growth. saudi
arebia.
Balaji D, &. L. (2017). The impact of public expenditure on economic growth. Koskovo.