Askin Chapter 4.1
Askin Chapter 4.1
One aspect of manufacturing strategy relates to defining the core competencies of the
company. Core competencies are best described as a “mission” or goal that will provide
an advantage in the marketplace. We may be tempted to view a specialized technology
protected by patents or an effective marketing network of sales representatives as a core
competency. It is best, however, to define core competencies along more general lines that
will help direct strategic planning decisions to maintain this competency over time. One
approach uses the measures of competitiveness, which are discussed in Chapter 1: price,
features, service, delivery, and quality. Motorola became widely recognized in the 1980s
for its commitment to quality in its Six Sigma program. Feeling the need to compete with
the perception of high-quality Japanese electronics, the Six Sigma program strived to re-
duce the percent of defective products produced to no more than 3 per million. A com-
pany that claims rapid delivery as a core competency would need to plan an efficient dis-
tribution system. The production planning and control system would need timely data on
inventory levels and demand rates, as well as the ability to change production plans on
short notice to incorporate updates in the data.
Tn addition, concepts such as a highly skilled workforce can constitute the core com-
petency. Often, core competencies can be identified in a company's advertisement. For
example, a telecommunications company will guarantee a low rate or clear signal.
86 Chapter4 - Manufacturing Strategy and the Supply Chain
maintaining a market for the finished product. The vertically integrated company is less
susceptible to price wars or competition that may squeeze out the profits at one level of
the product hierarchy. Vertical integration also relates to the company's supply chain man-
agement strategy, the manner in which the company partners with suppliers and customers,
and manages the flow of items and information from basic materials to delivered prod-
ucts. This topic will be examined in more detail later in this chapter.
'Break-even point refers to the level of demand at which the company can cover all costs. We assume the
company will be profitable if demand exceeds the break-even point.
88 Chapter4 Manufacturing Strategy and the Supply Chain
item and unit loads, the frequencies with which loads can be moved, and the ability to
vary pick-up and delivery points. As well as allowing product mix and routing changes,
a flexible material handling system allows frequent modification of the facility layout to
adjust to changing market demands while maintaining efficiency.
The firm can acquire flexibility through several strategies. Purchasing excess capac-
ity permits more rapid adaptation to demand changes. Excess capacity can be acquired
by employing more workers or installing more equipment. Other strategies may be more
cost effective, however. Cross-training workers and purchasing machines with flexible op-
eration capabilities allow the company to quickly adjust to changing product mixes and
machine breakdowns. In general, people tend to provide the most flexibility, but the flex-
ibility of intelligent, automated systems is constantly improving. For instance, free-
roaming automated guided vehicles and bar-coded transport containers and parts allow for
flexible material handling. Information can also be a strategic factor in flexibility. Accu-
rate market forecasts allow re-engineering of products in an effective time frame and the
chance to develop efficient schedules for resource utilization. Direct reports of customer
purchases allow production plans to be adjusted to meet market conditions. Knowledge
of the current status of equipment allows rapid replanning of order releases and process
routes to avoid congestion.
Deciding which parts to make and which to buy (purchase from vendors) is often an im-
portant decision for the firm. This decision relates to the choice of core competencies and
the customer's values. Most companies are unwilling to relinquish control of key parts to
vendors. Commodities, parts that are available from many vendors at competitive prices,
and normally with quick delivery, are seldom produced by the manufacturer of the final
product. It is often cheaper to purchase these items, and there is ordinarily little risk in
doing so. On the other hand, parts that directly relate to the core competencies of the com-
pany are usually produced internally.
A simple economic trade-off model can sometimes help clarify the make versus buy
decision. Suppose a part can be purchased from a vendor at a cost of $c per unit in-
cluding relevant ordering and receiving costs. If we decide to make the item internally,
we must invest $C in a new plant and equipment, but we can make the units at a variable
production cost of $c, per unit. The corresponding cost curves, as a function of total pro-
duction quantity X, are shown in Figure 4.1. Algebraically, we see that we should produce
the item if:
CHeX<c-X (4.1)
2We assume ¢, > c,, otherwise there is no economic justification for internal production. Other strategic fac-
tors may still favor intemal production however.
4.1 Manufacturing Strategy 87
maintaining a market for the finished product. The vertically integrated company is less
susceptible to price wars or competition that may squeeze out the profits at one level of
the product hierarchy. Vertical integration also relates to the company's supply chain man-
agement strategy, the manner in which the company partners with suppliers and customers,
and manages the flow of items and information from basic materials to delivered prod-
ucts. This topic will be examined in more detail later in this chapter.
The ease and extent to which a facility can adapt to change is referred to as flexibility.
Flexibility comes in many varieties. Both external (to the firm) and internal variability
create the need for flexibility. External factors include changing levels of product demand
or changes in the proportional mix of products demanded. This includes changes in fea-
tures, quality, and prices expected by customers to stay competitive. Internal factors in-
clude machine breakdowns and normal engineering design changes to improve product
design and manufacturability. These occurrences generate the need for alternative ways
to manufacture the product. Although many types of flexibility have been discussed in the
literature (see for instance, Browne et al. [1984] and Sethi and Sethi [1990]), no stan-
dardized definition or measures have yet been adopted by industry. We can, however, di-
vide the types into strategic and operational categories. Strategic flexibility offers the po-
tential to adjust to unpredictable and dynamically changing market opportunities.
Operational flexibility allows parts to be re-routed in the face of minor demand changes,
ie., machine breakdowns or temporary scheduling bottlenecks. Strategic flexibility en-
compasses volume flexibility, expansion flexibility, and product flexibility. Volume flexi-
bility measures the ability of the production system to operate profitably at multiple le
els of total demand. A high-volume flexibility system is one with a low break-even point.'
Expansion flexibility measures the possibility of adding capacity to meet more significant
increases in the level of total demand. Product flexibility relates to the varicty of product
types that can be produced by the system. Can new products be made without major dis-
ruption to operations and finances? This includes the ability to satisfy customer demands
for new versions of existing products and generations of new products. Operational flex-
ibility includes part-mix flexibility, routing flexibility, operation flexibility, machine flexi-
bility, and material handling flexibility. The ability of the system to produce products in
different proportions without major tooling changeovers or reconfiguration of equipment,
measures part-mix flexibility. Flexible machines that can be used to make a variety of
similar parts or be overhauled to produce new product families, increase part-mix flexi-
bility. The presence of duplicate machines (sometimes referred to as parallel processors)
enhances routing flexibility that is measured by the number of routes each product can
take through the production facility. This is related to operation flexibility that describes
the number of different process plans and processing sequences that can be used to man-
ufacture a part. Options for using a sequence of special purpose machines in lieu of one
machining center, or purchasing product modules instead of producing internally, impact
operation flexibility. Machine flexibility supports operation flexibility. Although operation
and routing flexibility focus on the product, machine flexibility focuses on the process. If
a machine can be adjusted to perform quickly more than one operation, it has machine
flexibility. Material handling flexibility refers to the system's ability to transport varying
'Break-even point refers to the level of demand at which the company can cover all costs. We assume the
company will be profitable if demand exceeds the break-even point.
88 Chapter4 Manufacturing Strategy and the Supply Chain
Break-even Point
Production Quantity
Figure 4.1 The Make versus Buy Tradeoff
EXAMPLE41 A new bracket has been designed to correct a stability problem identified with a communication
device when used in an environment subject to high vibration. The company has the machine ca-
pacity to produce the new bracket but estimates a present worth cost of $12,500 to obtain the tool-
ing needed to produce the bracket. An additional worker would have to be hired to support internal
production. The hiring and training cost is estimated at $1,000. Combining raw material and labor
costs with estimated standard hours for production, the estimated internal variable production cost
is $1.12 per unit. A vendor has quoted a price of $1.55 per unit. Forecasted demand is 10,000 units
per year for the next two years. The company believes the vendor can meet the delivery and qual-
ity standard. Should the bracket be made internally or purchased?
X= 12,500
ss + -1j
1,000 —-- 31395
Since lifetime demand is expected to be only 20,000 units, we should purchase the bracket.
of course, this model is rather simplistic. A more complete model might include un-
certainty in demand, price breaks if we buy in large quantities, supplier limitations, mul-
tiple technology and stair step capacity costs, nonlinear variable production costs, and
risk-based decision criteria. We also need to worry about control issues. Can we really
count on the vendor to deliver the requested number of units on time? Will product qual-
ity be dependable? Will the price remain stable? Could we decrease our production costs
over time through process improvements? Can we obtain the necessary capital to buy the
equipment needed to make this product? Will in-house production strain equipment and
human resources? These and other questions should be addressed as part of the make ver-
sus buy decision.
tomer. Make-to-Stock items are kept in inventory so that they can be shipped to cus- s
tomers as soon as the customer order arrives. This quick delivery can be a competitive
advantage and allows us to plan production ahead of time. On the other hand, we must
incur inventory costs for carrying products while we wait for demand to occur, and we
run the risk of product obsolescence when we err in forecasting demand. In general,
high-volume products are stocked. Raw materials may also be stocked to save on or-
dering costs and to reduce production lead time. Some key spare parts may also be
stockpiled to reduce repair times for plant equipment. Items not stockpiled are produced
only when ordered (or ordered only when needed for planned production). This would
not be practical for items with high setup costs and frequent small customer orders, but
is often the best approach when customers are willing to wait for product delivery, and
when orders occur with low frequency. These are termed Make-to-Order items. Although
strategic factors, such as the delivery lead time demanded by customers, often domi-
nate the justification for whether an item should be stocked, we can model the economic
aspects of this decision.
Assumptions:
1. Unit variable costs and setup/ordering costs are constant and equal for the stock-
ing and nonstocking cases.
. The demand rate is constant and deterministic.
D
This includes goodwill loss due to slower delivery of the final product to the cus-
tomer.
. The cost of monitoring inventory levels under the stocking option costs C, per
>
time.
Let O, be the average order quantity under the nonstocking option, D the annual
demand rate for the item, and A the setup/ordering cost. If we do not stock the item, we
will have orders per time period. The cost of ordering per period, including back-
s
(A + 7) -D
orders, will be . If we do stock the item, we know from the EOQ model of
Qns
Chapter 2 that the cost of setup/ordering, plus inventory holding cost, will be V 2ADh per
time where 7 is the holding cost per unit, per time. Additionally, we have the inventory
monitoring cost, C,. Thus, our decision is to stock the item if:
\2ADh
+ ¢, < 4t m-D
ns
Assuming the make-to-order cost exceeds C,, we make-to-stock if:
((A+w)<D‘C)2
N —Qu 4.
2:A:D 3
Otherwise, we make-to-order.
A raw material normally used in batches of 30 units has annual demand of 150 units. The ordering
cost is $145. The annualized cost of adding a part number to the automated inventory tracking sys-
tem is estimated at $400. The cost per order of delayed product delivery is estimated at $100. The
cost to hold a part for one year is $2.00. Should we stock the item?
4.1 Manufacturing Strategy 91
Decision Variables:
X;; the number of units of technology ¡ used to produce j; and
) the integer number of units of technology i acquired.
A mathematical statement of the problem of selecting the optimal set of technologies for
this plan is:
92 Chapter4 Manufacturing Strategy and the Supply Chain
To explain (4.8), first note that if we use technology ¡ for making all of product j, we will
D, -
need x; = — units of i. The heuristic assumes we can buy only as much of technology
ij
i as necessary, including a fractional amount if desired. It then selects the cheapest tech-
nology for each product considering both variable and apportioned fixed costs. The reader
should consult a general optimization text for suggestions on finding optimal solutions.
A facility is being constructed to produce two product families for sale in Eastern Europe. The
choice of technologies is between a special purpose process for each family or purchasing some
flexible capability that can produce either product family. Period demand is 100 units for family
one and 200 units for family two. Additional data are as follows:
i Ci Vit v ay — aD
1 (Flexible) — $150 $100 $100 60 60
2 (Family 1) - $100 $100 infinite 75 0
3 (Family 2) $100 — infinite $100 0 75
SOLUTION The two choices for product family 1 are the flexible process with cost:
4)
(Cy + Di — (150+ 100)(100)
= $416.7
ay 60 s
D, 100
* ==
ay 75 =1.
The two choices for product family 2 are the flexible process with cost:
(C + v12)
: Dr
= $833.3
a12
or the dedicated process with cost $533.3. The dedicated process is better and we set x3, = 2.7. In
actuality, we must buy integral amounts of capacity, however. Therefore, our real cost includes
2 units of the dedicated process for family 1 and 3 units of the dedicated process for family 2. The
fixed cost is, therefore, 2(100) + 3(100) = 500. The variable production cost for family 1 will be
P 75 $133.3
and
vi2 Dy — 100(200)
= $266.7
ay 75 *
for family 2. Thus, actual total cost will be
The competition does not stand still. If you want to be competitive, you must improve over
time. Strategic planning and investment decisions must reflect this reality. Unfortunately,
traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) techniques, such as net present value and rate of
return analyses, are inappropriate for evaluating complex strategic investment decisions.
The DCF approaches compare changes against a do-nothing alternative that assumes a static
world. The traditional approaches overlook factors that cannot be quantified by dollars and
have difficulty accounting for risk. It is very difficult to put a dollar value on improved
customer appreciation, resulting from faster response to inquiries as we install a new or-
der tracking system, or improved employee morale after being offered the opportunity to
learn and use the newest process technology. Nevertheless, we should strive to include these
intangibles into the justification of new information systems and processing technologies.
94 Chapier4 - Manufacturing Strategy and the Supply Chain
Kaplan [1986] notes that DCF approaches lead to nonoptimal facilities with obsolete process
technology. Fortunately, alternative approaches exist. Uncertainty can be modeled by treat-
ing cash flows as random variables and estimating the distribution of net present value. The
value of flexibility can then be evaluated by considering the distribution of possible cus-
tomer demand, market price curves, discounting sales revenue, and operating expenses un-
der each possible scenario. Intangibles such as the impact of a new system on customer
appreciation and employee morale can be considered by defining qualitative benefits for
each intangible factor under each alternative and computing a net present qualitative flow
value. For instance, suppose we are using the interest rate “7” in our net present worth com-
putations, and the planning horizon is 7 periods. Define Quy as the qualitative flow value
in period + for intangible attribute K, if investment alternative j is adopted. Intangible at-
tributes include issues, such as the types of flexibility and compatibility with core compe-
tencies, and additional factors such as public relations, employee morale, and product man-
ufacturability, discussed carlier in this chapter. Financial risk could also be treated as an
intangible, if desired. Qualitative flow values can be thought of as intangible or surrogate
revenue. Higher values imply a better score. The discounted net present qualitative flow
(NPQF) value of investment alternative j with respect to attribute % is then:
T
A company that prides itself on its quick delivery is considering which of two packaging systems
to use—manual or automated. The automated system will cost $300,000 to purchase plus $50,000
per year to operate. The key attributes are cost, market position, and manufacturing flexibility. Once
installed, the automated system is expected to provide a public relations benefit when trying to at-
tract new customers because lower error rates and quicker delivery times can be promised. The man-
ual system may be a liability when customer expectations change and our competitors adapt in the
next several years. The proposed system will automatically identify parts and merge stored product
into orders for shipping. Some training is required to perform the tasks manually. Workers have re-
stricted capability and must be retrained as product lines change. The automated system is expected
1o be more flexible to product mix changes. Cash flows and qualitative rankings of the alternatives
for the next three years are given in the following table. After some discussion, the company de-
cided that each attribute can be considered of equal importance when measured between + 1. A
$0 cost system wóuld be a + 1, and a three-year present worth cost of$1 million would be the max-
imum possible investment and be rated as a —1.
(G + D2 _ (200)(100)
1 = $266.7.
d 75
The dedicated process is better and we set:
Di 100
M == T =113
The two choices for product family 2 are the flexible process
with cost:
= $833.3
a
or the dedicated process with cost $533.3. The dedica
actuality, we must buy integral amounts of
ted proces
s is better and we set X3 = 2.7. n
Capacity, however. Therefore, our real cost
2 units of the dedicated process for family 1 and 3 units of the dedicated includes
fixed cost is, therefore, 2(100) + 3(100) process for family 2. The
= 500. The variable production cost for
family 1 will be
v2 Dy _ 100(100) -
any 75 $133.3
3.
and
Kaplan [1986] notes that DCF approaches lead to nonoptimal facilities with obsolete process
technology. Fortunately, alternative approaches exist. Uncertainty can be modeled by treat-
ing cash flows as random variables and estimating the distribution of net present value, The
value of flexibility can then be evaluated by considering the distribution of possible cus-
tomer demand, market price curves, discounting sales revenue, and operating expenses un-
der each possible scenario. Intangibles such as the impact of a new system on customer
appreciation and employee morale can be considered by defining qualitative benefits for
each intangible factor under each alternative and computing a net present qualitative flow
value. For instance, suppose we are using the interest rate “r”” in our net present worth com-
putations, and the planning horizon is T periods. Define Qy; as the qualitative flow value
in period ¢ for intangible attribute K, if investment alternative j is adopted. Intangible at-
tributes include issues, such as the types of flexibility and compatibility with core compe-
tencies, and additional factors such as public relations, employee morale, and product man-
ufacturability, discussed earlier in this chapter. Financial risk could also be treated as an
intangible, if desired. Qualitative flow values can be thought of as intangible or surrogate
revenue. Higher values imply a better score. The discounted net present qualitative flow
(NPQF) value of investment alternative j with respect to attribute K is then:
T
NPOFyy = Y, Qu- A+ 77 (4.9)
á
Once the net present qualitative value is computed, multiobjective decision techniques can
be used to compare alternatives based on monetary and intangible benefits. For compar-
ison purposes, qualitative flows can be measured between +1 (ideal solution) and —|
(worst solution), and each attribute can be assigned a relative weight.
A company that prides itself on its quick delivery is considering which of two packaging systems
to use—manual or automated. The automated system will cost $300,000 to purchase plus $50,000
per year to operate. The key attributes are cost, market position, and manufacturing flexibility. Once
installed, the automated system is expected to provide a public relations benefit when trying to at-
tract new customers because lower error rates and quicker delivery times can be promised. The man
ual system may be a liability when customer expectations change and our competitors adapt in the
next several years. The proposed system will automatically identify parts and merge stored product
into orders for shipping. Some training is required to perform the tasks manually. Workers have re-
stricted capability and must be retrained as product lines change. The automated system is expected
to be more flexible to product mix changes. Cash flows and qualitative rankings of the alternatives
for the next three years are given in the following table. After some discussion, the company de-
cided that each attribute can be considered of equal importance when measured between = 1- 5.
$0 cost system would be a + 1, and a three-year present worth cost of $1 million would be the max-
imum possible investment and be rated as a —1.
The company uses a minimum attractive rate of return of 15% to evaluate investment opportunities.
Which system should be selected based on total net present value? (Assume returns occur at the
end of the year.)
SOLUTION We begin by using Equation (4.9) to compute a net present value for each alternative on each at-
tribute. For the cost attribute for the manual system we obtain:
NPV ot manuat = — 125,000)(1.15)-* + (—130,000)(1.15) + (—145,000)(1.15)3) = —$214,014.
Similarly,
NPVt automared = (—350,000)(1.15)™" + (=50,000)(1.1572 + 1.15%) = —$427,973.
For the other attributes,
and
0.241 + 0.473 + (—0.270)
NPVautomared = =0.148.
3
Although the automated system costs more, both initially and over the three-year horizon, when the
intangibles are added in, the automated system has a positive present worth compared with the neg-
ative present worth of the manual system.
Other approaches exist for including qualitative factors and choosing between alter-
natives in multicriteria decision problems. The Analytical Hierarchy Process, or AHP,
96 Chapter4 - Manufacturing Strategy and the Supply Chain
(Saaty [1980], Zahedi [1986], and Golden et al. [1989]) has been widely studied and used
for making such choices. In AHP, analysts judge the relative desirability of alternatives
through pairwise comparisons. Key criteria are first divided into subcriteria to create a
problem hierarchy. For instance, the criterion “Performance” might be subdivided into
“accuracy,” “repeatability,” and “reliability.” At each level pairwise comparisons are made
to assess the relative importance of each subcriterion. ltems on the same level should be
of the same magnitude of importance, thus relative ratings are between 1 and 9. Finally,
the decision alternatives are compared on each of the subcriteria. Weighting the relative
evaluations of the decision alternatives by the relative weights found for the various sub-
criteria, a composite score is summed for each alternative. The AHP approach has the ad-
vantage of permitting consistency checks on pairwise comparisons to ensure rational com-
parisons and can automatically adjudicate between minor inconsistencies in comparisons.
Sensitivity analysis can also be performed.