Rising Tides: The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Coastal

Ecosystems

Introduction
Climate change is driving an unprecedented rise in global sea levels, primarily due to the melting of
polar ice caps and the thermal expansion of seawater (NASA, 2024). This phenomenon poses a
severe threat to coastal ecosystems, which are highly sensitive to even small changes in sea level. As
sea levels continue to rise, the impacts on coastal habitats, such as coral reefs, wetlands, and
mangroves, become increasingly pronounced (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2017). These ecosystems not
only provide critical services to marine life but also protect coastal communities from the adverse
effects of climate change (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2017).

Coral reefs, often referred to as the rainforests of the sea, are vital for maintaining marine
biodiversity. They offer habitat and shelter to a myriad of marine organisms, support fisheries, and
protect shorelines from erosion and storm surges (Hughes et al., 2017). Wetlands and mangroves are
equally important; wetlands act as natural water filters, improving water quality, while mangroves
serve as crucial buffers against storm surges, reducing the impact of waves and preventing coastal
erosion (Hughes et al., 2017). Both wetlands and mangroves also play a significant role in carbon
sequestration, helping to mitigate the effects of global warming.

This essay explores the multifaceted impacts of rising sea levels on these critical coastal ecosystems,
focusing on the interplay between environmental changes and ecosystem resilience. In the first
section, we examine the effects of rising sea levels on coral reefs, discussing coral bleaching, long-
term environmental impacts, and changes in habitat and biodiversity. The second section delves into
the challenges faced by wetlands and mangroves, highlighting their role as natural buffers, the
adaptive strategies necessary for their survival, and the implications of different sea level rise
scenarios on their future.

This essay aims to show the urgent need for integrated coastal management strategies that can
mitigate the adverse impacts of rising sea levels and preserve the vital functions of coral reefs,
wetlands, and mangroves for future generations.

1 Impact on Coral Reefs

1.1 Coral Bleaching and Recovery Mechanisms
Coral bleaching occurs when corals, stressed by elevated sea temperatures, expel the symbiotic algae
(zooxanthellae) living in their tissues, causing the corals to turn white (Brown et al., 2019). This
symbiotic relationship is crucial, as zooxanthellae provide corals with nutrients through
photosynthesis. Without these algae, corals lose their primary energy source, making them more
susceptible to disease and death (Brown et al., 2019). Rising sea temperatures have increased the
frequency and intensity of bleaching events, posing a significant threat to coral reefs globally (Brown
et al., 2019).
A study by Brown et al., 2019 over 40 years in the eastern Indian Ocean revealed that resilience to
bleaching varies significantly between shallow and deeper reef flats. Shallow reefs, frequently
exposed to higher solar radiation, experienced more severe bleaching and slower recovery (Brown et
al., 2019). In contrast, deeper reef flats benefitted from reduced aerial exposure, rapid water
flushing, and prolonged submergence in turbid waters, which helped mitigate thermal stress and
enhance recovery rates (Brown et al., 2019).

This differential response is attributed to several factors. Deeper reefs, submerged for longer periods,
avoid the intense sunlight and extreme temperature fluctuations that shallow reefs face. Turbid
waters over deeper reefs reduce light penetration and help lower water temperatures, offering a
more stable environment (Brown et al., 2019). Additionally, the increased water depth due to rising
sea levels provides a buffer against thermal stress, allowing deeper reefs to maintain higher coral
cover and diversity compared to their shallow counterparts (Brown et al., 2019).

1.1.1 Recovery of Coral Cover Post-2010 Bleaching Event

The 2010 bleaching event was one of the most severe on record, with sea temperatures exceeding
31°C for over seven weeks (Brown et al., 2019). This event caused dramatic coral loss, especially in
shallow reef flats (Brown et al., 2019). However, Brown et al., 2019 documented significant recovery
of coral cover within approximately eight years, particularly in deeper reef flats. The deeper sites
exhibited faster recovery rates due to lower exposure to thermal stress and better water circulation
(Brown et al., 2019).

During the recovery period from 2010 to 2018, coral cover in these deeper areas not only bounced
back but also showed trends toward increasing resilience (Brown et al., 2019). Enhanced water depth
due to rising sea levels played a crucial role in this recovery process by reducing the impact of high
temperatures and solar radiation (Brown et al., 2019). Protecting deeper reef areas and ensuring
optimal water quality could help enhance coral resilience against frequent and severe bleaching
events expected under ongoing climate change (Brown et al., 2019). Understanding these short-term
recovery mechanisms sets the stage for examining the long-term impacts and environmental factors
affecting coral reefs.

1.2 Long-Term Impacts and Environmental Factors

Brown et al. (2019) illustrates the profound long-term effects of rising sea temperatures and sea
levels on coral communities. Over this period, sea surface temperatures (SST) have increased at an
average rate of 0.159°C per decade, leading to more frequent and severe bleaching events. The most
extreme event occurred in 2010 when sea temperatures exceeded 31°C for over seven weeks,
causing significant coral mortality. These prolonged thermal stresses are detrimental to coral health,
resulting in reduced coral cover and disrupted community structures.
Figure 1: Mean monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) from 1979–2017 for Phuket
region. From “Long-term impacts of rising sea temperature and sea level on shallow water coral communities over a ~40-
year period” by Brown et al., 2019, Scientific Reports, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-45188-x
Conversely, rising sea levels, currently estimated at ~11 mm per year, have shown potential benefits
for coral reefs (Brown et al., 2019). The increased water depth reduces aerial exposure and thermal
stress, particularly on deeper reef flats, facilitating better recovery post-bleaching events (Brown et
al., 2019). The interaction between rising temperatures and sea levels is complex; while higher
temperatures increase bleaching risks, rising sea levels may mitigate some of the damage by
providing a more stable submerged environment for corals.

Sea surface temperature is a critical factor in coral health, with higher temperatures exacerbating the
frequency and intensity of bleaching events (Brown et al., 2019). Brown et al., 2019 highlights how
temperature anomalies, when SSTs exceed the bleaching threshold of 30.1°C, correlate strongly with
severe bleaching episodes. This has been particularly evident in years such as 1991, 1998, 2010, and
2016 (Brown et al., 2019). However, recovery from these events varies depending on the reef's depth
and exposure to fluctuating temperatures and light conditions.

Vertical land movement also plays a significant role in the relative sea level changes observed at the
study site. The 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake caused substantial land subsidence in Phuket,
leading to a relative increase in sea levels by 77.41 mm over seven years (Vigny et al., 2005). This
subsidence, combined with the absolute rise in sea levels measured by satellite altimetry, impacts
coral reefs by altering their exposure to aerial conditions and submersion periods (see Figure 2). This
dynamic interplay between vertical land movement and sea level rise complicates the overall impact
on coral health, making it crucial to consider both factors in long-term management strategies.
 Figure 2: Satellite altimeter sea surface height anomalies for Phuket. From “Long-term impacts of rising sea temperature
and sea level on shallow water coral communities over a ~40 year period” by Brown et al., 2019, Scientific Reports,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-45188-x
Brown’s et al., 2019 findings show the necessity of incorporating both rising sea temperatures and
sea levels into coral reef management plans. The dual pressures of thermal stress and changing sea
levels demand adaptive management approaches (Brown et al., 2019). Protecting deeper reef areas,
which show higher resilience due to their extended submergence, can be a strategic priority.
Additionally, maintaining water quality to reduce other stressors, such as pollution and
sedimentation, can enhance the resilience of coral reefs to climate change.

Future management strategies should also focus on mitigating the impacts of extreme temperature
anomalies. This could involve interventions such as artificial shading or promoting coral species with
higher thermal tolerance. Monitoring and modeling sea level changes, coupled with predictive
assessments of land movement, will be critical for developing effective conservation policies.

1.3 Habitat Changes and Biodiversity

The study by Morgan et al. (2020) investigates the effects of future sea-level rise (SLR) under climate
scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 on reef morphology in the central Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Utilizing
data from 31 reef cores and benthic surveys, the study models habitat changes under moderate (RCP
4.5) and severe (RCP 8.5) SLR scenarios (Morgan et al., 2020). RCP 4.5 predicts modest increases in
water depth, expanding habitats with low coral cover and diversity. RCP 8.5, however, projects
significant submersion of reef flats, relocating coral communities to depths below the euphotic zone,
reducing light availability essential for photosynthesis (Morgan et al., 2020).
 Rising sea levels will alter reef morphology, impacting habitat complexity and marine biodiversity
(Morgan et al., 2020). As reefs submerge, their three-dimensional structure changes, reducing their
ability to support diverse marine life (Morgan et al., 2020). Under RCP 4.5, some high-coral-cover
habitats may persist, but overall complexity and ecosystem function will decline (Morgan et al.,
2020). RCP 8.5 scenarios predict substantial loss of shallow-water coral communities, leading to
flattened reef structures and reduced biodiversity (Morgan et al., 2020). This shift will affect the
reef's role as a biodiversity hotspot and its capacity to buffer against wave action and storms (See

Figure 3: Percent (%) of remining reef area as reef morphology. From “Projections of coral cover and habitat change on
turbid reefs under future sea-level rise” by Morgan et al., 2020, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences,
2020, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.0541
Figure 3).

1.3.1 Projections of Coral Cover in the Great Barrier Reef

Projections for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) illustrate these trends. Under RCP 4.5, moderate SLR will
increase areas with low coral cover, particularly in shallow-water habitats. While some coral habitats
might endure, their ecological function and biodiversity will diminish (Morgan et al., 2020). Under
RCP 8.5, severe SLR will result in complete submersion of reef flats, leading to habitat loss and
significant declines in coral cover and structural complexity, severely impacting the reef's ecological
roles and services(Morgan et al., 2020).

The study's models indicate that by 2100, moderate SLR under RCP 4.5 will increase low-coral-cover
habitats, while severe SLR under RCP 8.5 will submerge reef flats, pushing coral communities to
greater depths with insufficient light for most species (Morgan et al., 2020). This will drastically
reduce coral cover and biodiversity, creating a more homogenized and less resilient reef ecosystem.
The findings show the need for effective climate mitigation strategies to avoid severe outcomes
predicted under RCP 8.5 (Morgan et al., 2020). Stabilizing atmospheric CO2 levels and managing
local stressors like water quality and overfishing are crucial for preserving the GBR's structural
complexity and biodiversity (Morgan et al., 2020).
2 Impact on Wetlands and Mangroves
2.1 Role of Wetlands and Mangroves as Buffers
Wetlands and mangroves play a crucial role in coastal protection by acting as natural buffers against
environmental stresses such as storm surges, erosion, and sea-level rise (Ibáñez & Caiola, 2021).
These ecosystems are highly effective in absorbing wave energy, thereby reducing the impact of
storms and protecting inland areas from flooding (Ibáñez & Caiola, 2021). Mangroves, with their
dense root systems, stabilize shorelines and prevent erosion, while wetlands act as natural barriers
that slow down water flow and dissipate wave energy (Ibáñez & Caiola, 2021). This buffering capacity
is vital in mitigating the effects of extreme weather events, which are becoming more frequent and
intense due to climate change.

In addition to coastal protection, wetlands and mangroves offer several other critical ecosystem
services. One of the most significant is carbon sequestration (Ibáñez & Caiola, 2021). Mangroves, in
particular, are highly efficient carbon sinks, storing carbon in their biomass and the soil, which helps
mitigate climate change (Ibáñez & Caiola, 2021). Wetlands also play a vital role in water purification
by filtering pollutants and nutrients from runoff before they reach coastal waters, thus maintaining
water quality and supporting marine life. Moreover, these ecosystems provide habitat and nursery
grounds for a wide variety of marine and terrestrial species, contributing to biodiversity conservation
(Ibáñez & Caiola, 2021).

2.1.1 Coastal Wetlands in the Ebro Delta

The Ebro Delta, a microtidal deltaic system, has been significantly affected by human activities such
as dam construction, which have reduced sediment supply and exacerbated coastal erosion (Ibáñez
& Caiola, 2021). Despite these challenges, the delta's wetlands have demonstrated resilience, partly
due to their ability to trap and accumulate sediments during flooding events.

During the Gloria storm in January 2020, one of the most intense recorded in the Mediterranean, the
Ebro Delta's wetlands played a crucial role in minimizing damage (Ibáñez & Caiola, 2021). The areas
with wider beaches and healthier wetlands experienced less erosion and flooding compared to those
with narrower, weaker beaches (Ibáñez & Caiola, 2021). This event highlighted the importance of
maintaining and restoring wetlands to enhance coastal resilience. Ibáñez & Caiola, 2021 suggest that
nature-based solutions, such as restoring sediment flows and creating artificial dunes, are more
sustainable and cost-effective in the long term compared to hard engineering solutions like dykes and
barriers.

The Ebro Delta's experience shows the necessity of integrated river basin management that includes
maintaining sediment delivery to coastal areas. This approach can help mitigate the impacts of sea-
level rise and enhance the resilience of coastal ecosystems. By preserving and restoring wetlands and
mangroves, we can protect coastal communities and maintain the vital services these ecosystems
provide.

2.2 Adaptive Strategies and Management

Wetlands and mangroves are among the most vulnerable ecosystems to sea-level rise (SLR) due to
their low-lying nature and proximity to the coastline (Sadat-Noori et al., 2021). The accelerating rate
of SLR, projected to reach up to 1.1 meters by 2100 under high emissions scenarios (RCP 8.5) (Sadat-
Noori et al., 2021), poses a significant threat to these critical habitats. As sea levels rise, these
ecosystems face increased risk of submersion, leading to habitat loss and degradation. The horizontal
migration of wetlands towards higher elevations is often impeded by physical barriers such as urban
development and infrastructure, limiting their ability to adapt naturally (Sadat-Noori et al., 2021).
Additionally, vertical accretion rates may not keep pace with rising sea levels, further exacerbating
the vulnerability of these ecosystems (Sadat-Noori et al., 2021).

The Tidal Replicate Method presents an innovative eco-engineering solution to counteract the
impacts of SLR on vegetated intertidal ecosystems (Sadat-Noori et al., 2021). This method involves
creating a synthetic tidal regime that mimics the natural hydroperiod conditions necessary for the
survival and growth of wetland vegetation (Sadat-Noori et al., 2021). By using automated tidal
control systems, known as "SmartGates," this method can regulate water levels to ensure the
appropriate frequency and depth of inundation (Sadat-Noori et al., 2021). This approach aims to
maintain the ecological balance and support the restoration of saltmarsh and mangrove habitats,
which are vital for coastal protection, carbon sequestration, and biodiversity (Sadat-Noori et al.,
2021) .

The implementation of the Tidal Replicate Method involves detailed analysis of the existing tidal
dynamics and hydroperiod requirements of the target vegetation (Sadat-Noori et al., 2021). The
synthetic tidal regime is designed to replicate the natural conditions as closely as possible, ensuring
that water levels rise to the desired elevations to promote the establishment and growth of
saltmarsh and mangrove species (Sadat-Noori et al., 2021). This method provides a sustainable way
to manage and preserve high-value coastal wetlands under the threat of SLR (Sadat-Noori et al.,
2021).

2.2.1 Implementation of the Tidal Replicate Method

A practical application of the Tidal Replicate Method was conducted in the Hunter River estuary,
Australia, to restore and stabilize saltmarsh vegetation (Sadat-Noori et al., 2021). The site, a Ramsar-
listed wetland, had experienced significant vegetation loss due to changes in tidal dynamics and
rising sea levels. By implementing the Tidal Replicate Method, automated SmartGates were installed
to control water levels, ensuring that the site received the necessary inundation to support saltmarsh
growth (Sadat-Noori et al., 2021).

Over a three-year period, aerial drone surveys and on-ground vegetation sampling indicated a
significant increase in saltmarsh vegetation (Sadat-Noori et al., 2021). The coverage of species like
Sarcocornia quinqueflora (Beaded Glasswort) increased substantially, demonstrating the
effectiveness of the method. Figure 1 shows the conceptual diagram illustrating the Tidal Replicate
Method's impact on saltmarsh and mangrove vegetation under different conditions.
Figure 4: Conceptual diagram showing saltmarsh and mangrove vegetation under (a) current conditions, (b) future SLR
conditions without a solution, and (c) future SLR conditions with the Tidal Replicate Method preserving the desired
vegetation. From “Coastal wetlands can be saved from sea level rise by recreating past tidal regimes”, by Sadat-Noori et al.,
2021, Scientific Reports, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-80977-3
This case study shows the potential of the Tidal Replicate Method to protect and restore valuable
coastal wetlands. If applied globally, this method could preserve over 1.18 million hectares of
Ramsar-listed wetlands, providing significant ecological and economic benefits (Sadat-Noori et al.,
2021). The method offers a feasible and adaptive strategy to mitigate the adverse effects of SLR on
coastal ecosystems, ensuring their resilience and continued provision of essential ecosystem services.

2.3 Thresholds for Mangrove Survival

Mangroves are highly effective in vertical accretion, a process where they build up soil to keep pace
with rising sea levels (Saintilan et al., 2020). The study by Saintilan et al. (2020) examines the
thresholds for mangrove vertical accretion in response to relative sea level rise (RSLR). The research
indicates that mangroves can sustain vertical growth at RSLR rates up to approximately 6.1
millimeters per year (Saintilan et al., 2020). Beyond this threshold, mangroves struggle to accrete
vertically, risking submergence and loss of habitat (Saintilan et al., 2020). This threshold is critical as it
highlights the limits within which mangroves can adapt to changing sea levels (Saintilan et al., 2020).
Projections indicate that under high-emissions scenarios (RCP 8.5), RSLR rates could exceed 6.1
millimeters per year within the next 30 years, potentially reaching up to 10 millimeters per year by
2100 (Saintilan et al., 2020). This rapid rise poses a severe threat to mangrove ecosystems,
particularly in tropical regions where the rate of sea level rise is expected to be higher than the
global average (Saintilan et al., 2020). If RSLR rates surpass the identified threshold, mangroves may
not be able to maintain their vertical position, leading to increased submergence and degradation of
these critical coastal buffers (Saintilan et al., 2020).

2.3.1 Global Implications and Economic Value of Preserving Mangroves

The global implications of preserving mangroves are profound, given their role in carbon
sequestration, coastal protection, and biodiversity support (Saintilan et al., 2020). The study
highlights that during periods of slower RSLR, such as the early to mid-Holocene, mangroves
expanded significantly, contributing to global carbon cycles by sequestering large amounts of carbon
in their biomass and sediments (Saintilan et al., 2020). This historical perspective underscores the
importance of maintaining mangrove ecosystems in mitigating climate change impacts (Saintilan et
al., 2020).

Economically, mangroves provide valuable services estimated at billions of dollars annually, including
protection against storm surges, erosion control, and support for fisheries (Saintilan et al., 2020). The
preservation of mangroves is not only crucial for ecological reasons but also for their economic
benefits (Saintilan et al., 2020). Effective management strategies that allow for natural sediment
deposition and prevent further coastal development are essential to ensure the resilience of
mangroves against future sea level rise.

Conclusion
In conclusion, rising sea levels, driven by climate change, pose significant threats to coastal
ecosystems, including coral reefs, wetlands, and mangroves. These vital habitats provide essential
services such as biodiversity support, coastal protection, and carbon sequestration. The impact of
sea level rise on coral reefs leads to increased bleaching events and habitat changes, affecting
marine biodiversity. Wetlands and mangroves face similar threats, with their capacity to act as
natural buffers and carbon sinks being compromised by rapid submersion and habitat loss.

To safeguard these ecosystems, it is crucial to adopt adaptive management strategies, such as the
Tidal Replicate Method for wetlands and promoting resilience in coral reefs through targeted
conservation efforts. The preservation of these habitats is not only an ecological imperative but also
an economic one, given their role in protecting coastal communities and supporting fisheries.
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